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Between 1960 and 2011, world population grew from 3 to 7 billion, an unprecedented rate of population growth that will never be seen again. In spite of the addition of 4 billion people in just 51 years, the world experienced some of the biggest improvements in living standards in human history, with declines in poverty and improvements in food production per capita in all major regions. This paper looks at the period since 2011, during which the world added another billion people. Progress has continued in many areas, with food production continuing to grow faster than population and with continued declines in the proportion of the population in poverty in all regions. Not all trends are positive, however. Progress in food production has slowed, with recent declines in food production per capita in Africa. Prices of food and other commodities have recently hit historic highs. Climate change is a challenge to progress in combatting hunger and poverty, especially in Africa. While climate change will make it harder to meet the needs of Africa’s continued population growth in this century, the paper shows that the countries with the highest population growth account for a very small share of global CO2 emissions. The record of the last six decades suggests that progress can be made to reduce poverty and hunger, even while world population continues to grow, but continued progress will require solutions to climate change that mainly target high-income and middle-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the impacts of climate change intensify globally, scholars and policymakers are increasingly interested in determining the factors that lead to the success or failure of climate adaptation strategies. This paper investigates the well-being outcomes of ex-pastoralists in northern Kenya who have migrated to towns in response to severe droughts. Focusing on Marsabit Town, the study employs a comparative design with primary survey data to analyze the well-being outcomes resulting from migration as an adaptation strategy. We contrast two heterogeneous groups of former pastoralists: a "settled group" that was already residing in Marsabit Town before ending their pastoral activities and a "migrant group" that relocated to Marsabit Town at the time of abandoning pastoralism. Our analysis reveals significant differences in well-being outcomes between these groups, with the migrant group often experiencing deterioration in their well-being levels. Key predictors of poorer well-being outcomes include the loss of all livestock, informal housing, and failure to transition into agricultural work, which often results in dependence on casual labor. Additionally, many migrants continue to experience poor subjective well-being—referring to their personal satisfaction with the quality of life—years after their livelihood transition. These insights offer a nuanced understanding of the well-being outcomes of migration-as-adaptation among heterogeneous groups of ex-pastoralists and underscore the need for customized livelihood support strategies for the most at-risk populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural populations are particularly exposed to increasing weather variability, notably through agriculture. In this paper, we exploit longitudinal data for Turkish provinces from 2008 to 2018 together with precipitation records over more than 30 years to quantify how variability in a standardized precipitation index (SPI) affects out-migration as an adaptation mechanism. Doing so, we document the role of three potential causal channels: per capita income, agricultural output, and local conflicts. Our results show that negative SPI shocks (droughts) are associated with higher out-migration in rural provinces. A mediated-moderator approach further suggests that changes in per capita income account for more than one quarter of the direct effect of droughts on out-migration, whereas agricultural output is only relevant for provinces in the upper quartile of crop production. Finally, we find evidence that local conflict fatalities increase with drought and trigger out-migration, although this channel is distinct from the direct effect of SPI shocks on out-migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical storms are among the most devastating natural disasters in the USA. Climate change is projected to make them even more destructive, and the number of people and properties at risk has steadily increased over the past several decades. Migration is often seen by scholars as an adaptation strategy to reduce exposure to future natural disasters. However, studies of migration after tropical storms have led to inconsistent results and have not analyzed post-storm migration from the viewpoint of exposure to future events. This paper adopts an innovative approach to estimate “excess migration” associated with tropical storms using Bayesian hierarchical models, and decomposes migration by risk of exposure to natural disasters of the origin and destination to understand whether migrants move to safer areas or rather riskier ones. Findings indicate that excess migration after tropical storms is rare and generally fails to reduce the number of people at risk of experiencing future natural disasters. Only the most destructive tropical storms are associated with significant excess migration. Finally, findings further suggest that neither the amount of post-disaster assistance nor the socio-demographic characteristics of the affected counties are strongly associated with excess migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from 32 European countries for nearly 244 million live births between 1969 and 2021, this paper examines the effects of temperatures on birth rates. The results show that exposure to hot days slightly reduces birth rates five to eight months later, while much stronger negative effects are observed nine to ten months after exposure to hot temperatures. Thereafter, a partial recovery is observed, with slightly increased birth rates. This study also shows that the effect of high-humidity hot days is much stronger than that of hot days with low humidity. Besides, the effect of heatwave days has been found to be more severe than that of hot days that are not preceded by other hot days. This study finds that some adaptation to heat might be expected only in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods are a common natural hazard in Bangladesh, and climate change is expected to further increase flooding frequency, magnitude and extent. Pregnant women in flood contexts could face challenges in utilisation of maternal healthcare. The aim of this paper is to analyse associations between flood exposure and the use of maternal healthcare (antenatal care visits, birth assisted by skilled birth attendants, and giving birth in a health facility) in Bangladesh for pregnancies/births between 2004 and 2018. Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data from four surveys in the time period 2007–2018 and data on floods from the Emergency Events Database and the Geocoded Disasters Dataset are analysed using multilevel linear probability models. In line with previous results, we find clear bivariate associations between exposure to flooding and maternal healthcare use. These associations are largely confounded by socioeconomic and demographic variables. In general, exposure to flooding — whether measured as exposure to any floods or severe floods — does not affect maternal healthcare use, and we suggest that the lower usage of maternal healthcare in areas exposed to flooding rather relates to the characteristics of the flood-prone areas and their populations, which also relate to lower maternal healthcare use. However, we find negative associations in some supplementary analyses, which suggest that even if there is no effect of floods on average, specific floods may have negative effects on maternal healthcare use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Of growing research and policy interest are the experiences of people living under conditions of climate change–induced environmental stress, which either are unable to migrate (sometimes described as a 'trapped population') or are seemingly unwilling to do so (sometimes described as the 'voluntarily immobile'). This paper problematises and expands upon these binary categories: examining the complex dimensionality of non-migration as a form of place relations, explored through qualitative study of rural and coastal Bangladeshi communities. Through 60 semi-structured interviews of individuals from four communities in the Kalapara region, the analysis proffers four qualitatively derived and inter-related dimensions of voluntary and involuntary non-migration framed as a form of place relations. These four dimensions concern the following: (1) livelihood opportunities, (2) place obduracy, (3) risk perceptions, and (4) social-structural constraints, with the interplay between these elements explaining diverse non-migratory experiences. In our analysis, 'place obduracy' is introduced as a concept to describe the differential speed of environmental change and socio-cultural adaptation responses to explain non-migratory experiences. Our discussion provides insight into how to best support non-migrant people's adaptive capacity in the face of growing climate emergency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development cooperation actors have been addressing climate change as a cross-cutting issue and investing in climate adaptation projects since the early 2000s. More recently, as concern has risen about the potential impacts of climate variability and change on human mobility, development cooperation actors have begun to design projects that intentionally address the drivers of migration, including climate impacts on livelihoods. However, to date, we know little about the development cooperation's role and function in responding to climate related mobility and migration. As such, the main aim of this paper is to outline the policy frameworks and approaches shaping development cooperation actors' engagement and to identify areas for further exploration and investment. First, we frame the concept of climate mobility and migration and discuss some applicable policy frameworks that govern the issue from various perspectives; secondly, we review the toolbox of approaches that development cooperation actors bring to climate mobility; and third, we discuss the implications of the current Covid-19 pandemic and identify avenues for the way forward. We conclude that ensuring safe and orderly mobility and the decent reception and long-term inclusion of migrants and displaced persons under conditions of more severe climate hazards, and in the context of rising nationalism and xenophobia, poses significant challenges. Integrated approaches across multiple policy sectors and levels of governance are needed. In addition to resources, development cooperation actors can bring data to help empower the most affected communities and regions and leverage their convening power to foster more coordinated approaches within and across countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adverse effects of climate change are likely to harm agricultural livelihoods and food supplies worldwide. Faced with challenges resulting from increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, some farmers might abandon their occupations. Existing research has found that drier than usual weather reduces landownership rates through these pathways. Such trends could be disruptive at a population level, threatening a country’s economic and political stability. We analyze subnational agricultural landownership data that cover 50 countries on four continents between 2004 and 2017. Our Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) dataset speaks to the experiences of 1,123,714 households. Our predictor of environmental stress is the growing season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, which measures deviations from local weather patterns dating back to 1901. We find that drier than average growing season weather is associated with declining landownership rates. For every dry growing season before a DHS survey, the agricultural landownership rate falls by 2.51%. This effect is most robust in African countries, which was the focus of a recent study on this topic, and we offer several plausible interpretations of these regional differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the relationship between drought – a dimension of climate change – and migration has been explored in a number of settings, prior research has largely focused on out-migration and has not considered climate factors at the migrant destination. However, drought may impact not only out-migration but also return migration, particularly in settings where temporary labor migration and agricultural reliance are common. Thus, considering drought conditions at origins and destinations is necessary to specify the effects of climate on migrant-sending populations. Using detailed data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study, a household panel study in a migrant-sending area in Nepal, we analyze the effect of drought at the neighborhood level on individual-level out-migration and drought at the origin district on return migration among adults from 2011 to 2017, assessing these associations among males and females separately. In mixed-effect discrete-time regressions, we find that neighborhood drought is positively associated with out-migration and return migration, both internally and internationally among males. Among females, drought is positively associated with internal out-migration and return migration, but not international migrations. We did not find an association between drought at the origin and return migration independent of drought status at the destination. Taken together, these findings contribute to our understanding of the complexity of the impacts of precipitation anomalies on population movement over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well-known that men and women differ in their views regarding the severity of climate change, but do they also differ in their support for climate policy and in undertaking climate action in their everyday lives? Previous survey evidence on these questions is inconclusive, but we can answer them using unique survey data from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA). Regression analysis confirms that Swedish women believe more strongly than men that climate change will affect Sweden. Furthermore, women engage in more climate-mitigating behavior than men, even conditional on climate beliefs. The association between gender and climate policy support is less robust, and disappears altogether when climate beliefs are controlled for, demonstrating that climate beliefs are the main mechanism explaining the relationship between gender and policy support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines the relationship between sudden- and gradual-onset climate events and migration, hypothesizing that this relationship is mediated by the adaptive capacity of affected individuals. We use survey data from regions of Cambodia, Nicaragua, Peru, Uganda, and Vietnam that were affected by both types of events with representative samples of non-migrant residents and referral samples of migrants. Although some patterns are country-specific, the general findings indicate that less educated and lower-income people are less likely to migrate after exposure to sudden-onset climate events compared to their counterparts with higher levels of education and economic resources. These results caution against sweeping predictions that future climate-related events will be accompanied by widespread migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration is often considered a form of climate change adaptation by which individuals, households, and communities seek to reduce the risks associated with climate change. In this study, we examine first-time seasonal migration out of a village in North-Western Burkina Faso to neighbouring countries, triggered by more irregular rainfall patterns. Through a set of 52 qualitative interviews, we analyse the perceptions of migrants themselves as well as the sending community regarding migration consequences. Men migrated in the off-season, whereas women stayed behind. Most migrant men and wives of migrants perceive migration to have negative consequences for their socio-economic situation and their health. Despite this, a lack of options and deteriorating environmental conditions might force the men to move again. We interpreted the range of narratives provided by women and men against the background of the scientific literature on migration as climate change adaptation. While migration could be beneficial, this study challenges the notion of migration as an effective adaptation strategy for people in climate-vulnerable settings, who lack other options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the impact of in utero temperature exposure on the birth weight and an indicator for low birth weight using administrative data on singleton live births conceived between 2000 and 2016 in Hungary. We find that exposure to high temperatures during pregnancy decreases birth weight, but its impact on the probability of low birth weight is weaker. Exposure to one additional hot day (mean temperature > 25 °C) during the gestation period reduces birth weight by 0.46 g, relative to a 15–20 °C day. The second and third trimesters appear to be slightly more sensitive to temperature exposure than the first trimester. We project that climate change will decrease birth weight and increase the prevalence of low birth weight by the mid-twenty-first century. The projected impacts are the strongest for newborns conceived during the winter and spring months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]