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Tropical storms are among the most devastating natural disasters in the USA. Climate change is projected to make them even more destructive, and the number of people and properties at risk has steadily increased over the past several decades. Migration is often seen by scholars as an adaptation strategy to reduce exposure to future natural disasters. However, studies of migration after tropical storms have led to inconsistent results and have not analyzed post-storm migration from the viewpoint of exposure to future events. This paper adopts an innovative approach to estimate “excess migration” associated with tropical storms using Bayesian hierarchical models, and decomposes migration by risk of exposure to natural disasters of the origin and destination to understand whether migrants move to safer areas or rather riskier ones. Findings indicate that excess migration after tropical storms is rare and generally fails to reduce the number of people at risk of experiencing future natural disasters. Only the most destructive tropical storms are associated with significant excess migration. Finally, findings further suggest that neither the amount of post-disaster assistance nor the socio-demographic characteristics of the affected counties are strongly associated with excess migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from 32 European countries for nearly 244 million live births between 1969 and 2021, this paper examines the effects of temperatures on birth rates. The results show that exposure to hot days slightly reduces birth rates five to eight months later, while much stronger negative effects are observed nine to ten months after exposure to hot temperatures. Thereafter, a partial recovery is observed, with slightly increased birth rates. This study also shows that the effect of high-humidity hot days is much stronger than that of hot days with low humidity. Besides, the effect of heatwave days has been found to be more severe than that of hot days that are not preceded by other hot days. This study finds that some adaptation to heat might be expected only in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 1960 and 2011, world population grew from 3 to 7 billion, an unprecedented rate of population growth that will never be seen again. In spite of the addition of 4 billion people in just 51 years, the world experienced some of the biggest improvements in living standards in human history, with declines in poverty and improvements in food production per capita in all major regions. This paper looks at the period since 2011, during which the world added another billion people. Progress has continued in many areas, with food production continuing to grow faster than population and with continued declines in the proportion of the population in poverty in all regions. Not all trends are positive, however. Progress in food production has slowed, with recent declines in food production per capita in Africa. Prices of food and other commodities have recently hit historic highs. Climate change is a challenge to progress in combatting hunger and poverty, especially in Africa. While climate change will make it harder to meet the needs of Africa’s continued population growth in this century, the paper shows that the countries with the highest population growth account for a very small share of global CO2 emissions. The record of the last six decades suggests that progress can be made to reduce poverty and hunger, even while world population continues to grow, but continued progress will require solutions to climate change that mainly target high-income and middle-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural populations are particularly exposed to increasing weather variability, notably through agriculture. In this paper, we exploit longitudinal data for Turkish provinces from 2008 to 2018 together with precipitation records over more than 30 years to quantify how variability in a standardized precipitation index (SPI) affects out-migration as an adaptation mechanism. Doing so, we document the role of three potential causal channels: per capita income, agricultural output, and local conflicts. Our results show that negative SPI shocks (droughts) are associated with higher out-migration in rural provinces. A mediated-moderator approach further suggests that changes in per capita income account for more than one quarter of the direct effect of droughts on out-migration, whereas agricultural output is only relevant for provinces in the upper quartile of crop production. Finally, we find evidence that local conflict fatalities increase with drought and trigger out-migration, although this channel is distinct from the direct effect of SPI shocks on out-migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods are a common natural hazard in Bangladesh, and climate change is expected to further increase flooding frequency, magnitude and extent. Pregnant women in flood contexts could face challenges in utilisation of maternal healthcare. The aim of this paper is to analyse associations between flood exposure and the use of maternal healthcare (antenatal care visits, birth assisted by skilled birth attendants, and giving birth in a health facility) in Bangladesh for pregnancies/births between 2004 and 2018. Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data from four surveys in the time period 2007–2018 and data on floods from the Emergency Events Database and the Geocoded Disasters Dataset are analysed using multilevel linear probability models. In line with previous results, we find clear bivariate associations between exposure to flooding and maternal healthcare use. These associations are largely confounded by socioeconomic and demographic variables. In general, exposure to flooding — whether measured as exposure to any floods or severe floods — does not affect maternal healthcare use, and we suggest that the lower usage of maternal healthcare in areas exposed to flooding rather relates to the characteristics of the flood-prone areas and their populations, which also relate to lower maternal healthcare use. However, we find negative associations in some supplementary analyses, which suggest that even if there is no effect of floods on average, specific floods may have negative effects on maternal healthcare use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Of growing research and policy interest are the experiences of people living under conditions of climate change–induced environmental stress, which either are unable to migrate (sometimes described as a 'trapped population') or are seemingly unwilling to do so (sometimes described as the 'voluntarily immobile'). This paper problematises and expands upon these binary categories: examining the complex dimensionality of non-migration as a form of place relations, explored through qualitative study of rural and coastal Bangladeshi communities. Through 60 semi-structured interviews of individuals from four communities in the Kalapara region, the analysis proffers four qualitatively derived and inter-related dimensions of voluntary and involuntary non-migration framed as a form of place relations. These four dimensions concern the following: (1) livelihood opportunities, (2) place obduracy, (3) risk perceptions, and (4) social-structural constraints, with the interplay between these elements explaining diverse non-migratory experiences. In our analysis, 'place obduracy' is introduced as a concept to describe the differential speed of environmental change and socio-cultural adaptation responses to explain non-migratory experiences. Our discussion provides insight into how to best support non-migrant people's adaptive capacity in the face of growing climate emergency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development cooperation actors have been addressing climate change as a cross-cutting issue and investing in climate adaptation projects since the early 2000s. More recently, as concern has risen about the potential impacts of climate variability and change on human mobility, development cooperation actors have begun to design projects that intentionally address the drivers of migration, including climate impacts on livelihoods. However, to date, we know little about the development cooperation's role and function in responding to climate related mobility and migration. As such, the main aim of this paper is to outline the policy frameworks and approaches shaping development cooperation actors' engagement and to identify areas for further exploration and investment. First, we frame the concept of climate mobility and migration and discuss some applicable policy frameworks that govern the issue from various perspectives; secondly, we review the toolbox of approaches that development cooperation actors bring to climate mobility; and third, we discuss the implications of the current Covid-19 pandemic and identify avenues for the way forward. We conclude that ensuring safe and orderly mobility and the decent reception and long-term inclusion of migrants and displaced persons under conditions of more severe climate hazards, and in the context of rising nationalism and xenophobia, poses significant challenges. Integrated approaches across multiple policy sectors and levels of governance are needed. In addition to resources, development cooperation actors can bring data to help empower the most affected communities and regions and leverage their convening power to foster more coordinated approaches within and across countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As increasing global temperatures lead to sea level rise and associated impacts (e.g. flooding, erosion, saltwater intrusion), the relocation of people and assets away from sites of coastal risk has been viewed by some as a certainty. However, many people affected by emerging coastal changes remain in sites of residence. Here we examine the experiences of residents in three low-lying villages across two small island states: Dreketi and Karoko in Fiji, and Funafala in Tuvalu. Analysis of qualitative data from interviews shows that residents are concerned about local coastal changes, and largely attribute them to climate change. While some anticipate future relocation and retreat, and a few households have retreated short distances away from the coast, for now residents remain in and move to these sites to maintain livelihoods, practices, well-being, and sense of belonging. These are places that people value and plan to live in as long as possible. The contribution of this paper is to highlight the vernacular explanations of overlapping drivers of immobility and translocality in sites of coastal risk. It indicates the need to move away from the binaries of immobility/mobility and of trapped/voluntarily immobile populations and to examine the multiplicities of human (im)mobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For decades, Americans have generally been moving away from the Northeast and the Midwest toward the South and West. Mountainous and desert areas in the West and Southwest have been especially popular internal migration destinations. However, these same areas are particularly susceptible to the increasing impacts of climate change on extreme heat and wildfire. This paper investigates relationships between disaster-level fire events and extreme heat on county-level migration in the USA using annual panel data for the years 1990–2015. Are wildfire and extreme heat associated with changes in migration patterns? And, are relationships between such "disamenities" and migration stronger in counties with closer ties to environmental amenities? Fixed effects and random effects regression analysis show that both experiencing a disaster-level wildfire and extreme heat in the prior year were associated with reduced migration. Relationships are stronger in counties rich in natural amenities and outdoor recreation, suggesting that in places known for their environmental amenities, shifts toward environmental disamenities may be particularly impactful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and environmental hazards affect the entire world, but their interactions with—and consequences on—human migration are unevenly distributed geographically. Research on climate and migration have their own geographies which do not necessarily coincide. This paper critically confronts these two geographies by presenting the first detailed mapping of research in the field of environmentally induced migration. After a brief review of the geography of research on climate change, the paper presents an overview of nearly 50 years of case studies on the basis of CliMig, a bibliographic database of 1193 scientific papers and books on climate/environmental change and migration, among them 463 empirical case studies. We analyze the locations of these case studies, the academic affiliations of their researchers, and the origin of their funding. Mapping the locations of case studies worldwide points toward blind spots in the research and identifies “overstudied” areas. We describe the methodologies used in the studies and present a typology of environmental hazards. Our results show that research on environmental migration is mainly done in countries of the Global South, whereas climate science research in general is focused on countries of the Global North. We contend that the peculiar geography of environmental migration cannot be explained solely by the uneven vulnerability of southern populations to the environment. It must also be understood through the lens of post-colonial and securitization studies as the result of a framing of “environmental refugees” (and refugees in general) as an intrinsically “southern problem” and as a security risk for the North. This paper is an original contribution to the literature on the North-South divide in scientific research and will help to outline future directions of investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, there has been significant debate about whether 'environmental migration' can constitute a form of adaptation to environmental change, as opposed to forced or flight migration. The Foresight Report on Migration and Environmental Change (2011) suggested environmental factors are one driver of migration, as well as political, social, economic and demographic drivers, and that-under the right conditions-migration can be a form of adaptation to changing climatic conditions. However, this is dependent on migrants having adequate social and financial capital to undertake beneficial types of migration; it further argues that environmental change may result in 'trapped populations' whereby people who lack the necessary resources to re-establish livelihoods elsewhere may be left exposed to increasingly severe environmental shocks and stresses in situ. Research on the climate-migration nexus in West Africa has largely focused on out-migration from the semi-arid Sahel with more limited evidence about how sea flooding interacts with migration flows. This paper attempts to help fill this knowledge gap. Using data from a representative survey of households across three coastal communities in Ghana's Volta River Delta, this paper concludes that exposure to sea flooding may not be a primary cause of out-migration as other community, economic and political factors influence migration intentions and decisions. Thus, it is important for planned adaptation interventions to be strengthened in situ to enable households, particularly farming households, sustain their livelihoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific Small Island Developing States are often considered on the frontline of climate change due to high levels of exposure to climate-related hazards and limited adaptive capacity to respond. In this context, Pacific Islanders may be displaced, or choose to migrate to escape risk and find more secure livelihoods. On the other hand, Pacific political and community leaders stress that mobility can be a threat to sovereignty and culture and should only be considered as a last resort. This paper adopts a cultural ecology framing to gain a greater understanding of these contested local discourses on climate change and human mobility in Kiribati, Tuvalu and Nauru through the use of the Q method. The results reveal a range of shared subjective understandings of climate change and human mobility which show that reasons for, and perceived outcomes of moving are inextricably linked. These subjective understandings highlight that culture, and in particular how Islanders relate to land and religion can influence decision-making, promoting or hindering mobility. The findings therefore support the need for further engagement with communities to recognise and validate their positions on climate change and human mobility to facilitate the planning and implementation of effective policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human mobility over different distances and time scales has long been associated with environmental change, and the idea of climate change is now affecting movement in new ways. In this paper, we discuss three cases from the South Pacific to explain the ways anticipated climate futures are changing mobility in the present. First, we examine village relocation in response to coastal erosion and inundation in Fiji, drawing on our study of the unfolding experience of Narikoso village in Kadavu Province. In contrast to this spatially constrained process of permanent relocation, we examine the spatially extended yet temporally constrained seasonal migrant worker programme that aims to support economic development in the Pacific Islands by providing temporary work visas in Australia and New Zealand. Finally, we examine the likely effects of proposed open labour markets as a means to promote climate change adaptation, through a study of the analogous example of Niuean migration to New Zealand which has resulted in both permanent migration and a slow circulation of people between both countries. Across these examples, we highlight emerging and potentially constructive ways in which climate change is altering the spatio-temporal patterns and rhythms of mobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is not yet clear how climate change will affect the structural constraints and spatial and social complexity that affect population movements in the future. Today, countries of origin, transit, and destination have reached a juncture. The UNFCCC Paris Agreement adds value to decisions these countries face by helping them explore possible scenarios for impacts that include large movements of people that could be associated with a rise in global average temperatures between 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Climate policy and mainstream migration and refugee policy are developing recommendations by the end of 2018 that, together, will provide new contours for governing human mobility in the twenty-first century. This paper compares work on human mobility under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and how climate change features in the initial drafts of the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) and the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR). The international community can choose not to include such future considerations, missing opportunities to avert risks of involuntary movements of people as climate change impacts intensify. Alternatively, the international community can help countries to preempt risks arising from governance gaps and climate impacts, incorporate climate and mobility considerations in planning, and establish contingency arrangements for large-scale movements of people. A measure of efficacy in coordinating responses to large-scale movements of people will be the degree to which both state and non-state actors take up the recommendations of the Task Force on Displacement, how the Global Compact for Migration is negotiated, and the degree to which states utilize the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework as climate and other dynamics unfold in future years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although evidence is increasing that climate shocks influence human migration, it is unclear exactly when people migrate after a climate shock. A climate shock might be followed by an immediate migration response. Alternatively, migration, as an adaptive strategy of last resort, might be delayed and employed only after available in situ (in-place) adaptive strategies are exhausted. In this paper, we explore the temporally lagged association between a climate shock and future migration. Using multilevel event-history models, we analyze the risk of Mexico-US migration over a seven-year period after a climate shock. Consistent with a delayed response pattern, we find that the risk of migration is low immediately after a climate shock and increases as households pursue and cycle through in situ adaptive strategies available to them. However, about 3 years after the climate shock, the risk of migration decreases, suggesting that households are eventually successful in adapting in situ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is increasingly apparent that stressors associated with anthropocentric climate change are likely to have dramatic effects on future human settlement patterns. Although sea-level rise is one of the best understood implications of climate change, geographically precise estimation of potential population displacement due to tidewater inundation has proven remarkably problematic. At least within the USA, these problems partially stem from methodological limitations of population projection methodology at sub-county scales. Using a case study of coastal Georgia, USA, this paper develops and demonstrates a new housing unit-based population projection method that is applied at the sub-county scale of Census Block Groups. These projections are then overlaid with spatiotemporally explicit assessments of future sea-level rise inundation provided through the Sea Level Affecting Marsh Model (SLAMM). We find that between 62,000 and 159,000 people are at risk of between 1 and 2 m of sea-level rise by 2100 in coastal Georgia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research into the climate change and migration nexus has often focussed solely on how people move in response to the impacts of variability and change in climate. This notion often ignores the nature of migration as a tried and tested livelihood choice amid a variety of socio-economic and environmental opportunities and limitations. This paper closely looks at the behavioural aspects of migration decision-making in Bangladesh in the context of changes in its economy, and, increasingly, exposure to the impacts of climate variability and change. We find that villagers in areas particularly affected by increasing climatic stresses and shocks are diversifying their traditional livelihood strategies by migrating. Environmental factors, including climatic stresses and shocks, often make such shifts even more necessary. Although the migrants' primary motivation is better income, in effect, migration becomes an effective form of adaptation. Based on a qualitative study in three geographically distinct places of Bangladesh, we propose that migration is a socially acceptable behaviour that occurs in the context of perceived environmental change and climate variability. Migration decisions are mediated by a set of 'behavioural factors' that assesses the efficacy of different responses to opportunities and challenges, their socio-cultural acceptance and the ability to respond successfully. This understanding has policy relevance for climate change adaptation, in terms of both how migrants are perceived and how their movements are planned for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the findings of a systematic review of scholarly publications that report empirical findings from studies of environmentally-related international migration. There exists a small, but growing accumulation of empirical studies that consider environmentally-linked migration that spans international borders. These studies provide useful evidence for scholars and policymakers in understanding how environmental factors interact with political, economic and social factors to influence migration behavior and outcomes that are specific to international movements of people, in highlighting promising future research directions, and in raising important considerations for international policymaking. Our review identifies countries of migrant origin and destination that have so far been the subject of empirical research, the environmental factors believed to have influenced these migrations, the interactions of environmental and non-environmental factors as well as the role of context in influencing migration behavior, and the types of methods used by researchers. In reporting our findings, we identify the strengths and challenges associated with the main empirical approaches, highlight significant gaps and future opportunities for empirical work, and contribute to advancing understanding of environmental influences on international migration more generally. Specifically, we propose an exploratory framework to take into account the role of context in shaping environmental migration across borders, including the dynamic and complex interactions between environmental and non-environmental factors at a range of scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of population in New Zealand, focusing on the effects of climate on internal migration dynamics. Specifically, a gravity modelling framework is first used to identify climate variables that have statistically significant associations with internal migration. The gravity model is then embedded within a population projection model to evaluate the effect of climate scenarios on regional populations. Of the climate variables, only surface radiation in the origin exhibits a significant association with internal migration. Including this variable in the population projection model makes a small difference to the regional population distribution, and the difference between different climate scenarios is negligible. Overall, the results suggest that, while statistically significant, climate change in the form of changes in the distribution of the weather will have a negligible effect on the population distribution of New Zealand at the regional level. These null results probably reflect the high capacity for adaptation to climate change available to a developed country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]