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The Global Investment Report 2023 revealed that after a sharp decline in 2020 and a strong rebound in 2021, global foreign direct investment (FDI) declined by 12 percent to $1.3 trillion in 2022. However, in developing countries, FDI increased by 4% to $916 billion, a record share of more than 70% of global flows. The number of greenfield investment projects in developing countries increased by 37 percent and international project finance transactions by 5 percent. Foreign investment from China, the second largest recipient of foreign investment globally, increased by 5 percent. The service industry has become the mainstream industry in the global FDI structure. The global industry is accelerating its transformation to a "service-based economy," international FDI in productive service industries has become an essential means of industrial transfer in developed countries and a meaningful way to upgrade the industrial structure and high-quality development in emerging economies. As a representative province in central China, Hubei Province has unique advantages in human capital, factor cost, and market potential, which provide preferential conditions to attract foreign investment. This paper first introduced the concept of the productive service industry, based on the relevant statistical data from 2011 to 2022, focused on the current situation of foreign investment utilization in five major sub-sectors of the productive service industry in Hubei Province in the past ten years, and empirically investigated the impact of foreign investment utilization in five major sub-sectors of the productive service industry on the economic growth of Hubei Province, and obtained that the level of foreign investment attraction varied significantly among the regions in Hubei Province. The three productive service industries, namely transportation, storage and postal services, information transmission, software and information technology services, and financial services, played a significant role in the active attraction and optimal utilization of foreign capital and the economic development of Hubei Province. Based on this, it was proposed to build a market-oriented rule of law and internationalized business environment, improve the infrastructure construction in different regions of the province, focus on the training of professional talents for the development of productive service industries, and pay attention to the improvement of independent innovation capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of COVID-19 on travel demand, traffic congestion, and traffic safety are attracting heated attention. However, the influence of the pandemic on electric bike (e-bike) safety has not been investigated. This paper fills the research gap by analyzing how COVID-19 affects China's e-bike safety based on a province-level dataset containing e-bike safety metrics, socioeconomic information, and COVID-19 cases from 2017 to 2020. Multi-output regression models are adopted to investigate the overall impact of COVID-19 on e-bike safety in China. Clustering-based regression models are used to examine the heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 and the other explanatory variables in different provinces/municipalities. This paper confirms the high relevance between COVID-19 and the e-bike safety condition in China. The number of COVID-19 cases has a significant negative effect on the number of e-bike fatalities/injuries at the country level. Moreover, two clusters of provinces/municipalities are identified: one (cluster 1) with lower and the other (cluster 2 that includes Hubei province) higher number of e-bike fatalities/injuries. In the clustering-based regressions, the absolute coefficients of the COVID-19 feature for cluster 2 are much larger than those for cluster 1, indicating that the pandemic could significantly reduce e-bike safety issues in provinces with more e-bike fatalities/injuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emission trading scheme (ETS), the most popular market-based instrument, is widely used to solve carbon emission problems in the world. With the development of carbon market, carbon asset has been a popular financial product to invest and the risk management becomes important for government, regulated enterprises and other investors. As carbon prices have tail characteristics, this paper explores the extremal risks between carbon markets in US, Europe and China using tail dependence correlation coefficients. The empirical analysis demonstrates the tail dependence structure between carbon markets in US. and Europe is the same sign, which indicates that it is unwise to hold these two carbon assets as a portfolio. Moreover, the co-movements between European Union Emission Trade Scheme (EU ETS) and China's carbon markets are partly significant, and the operation mechanisms in China should be improved. In addition, the tail dependence test among the carbon pilots in China shows diversity. Hubei carbon trading pilot, located in central China, has extremal dependence with all other selected pilots for its regulatory program operation. The findings give insight to the carbon market regulars to improve the operation mechanism and are also useful for the investors to manage their portfolios, policymakers to make practically applicable regulations, and relevant organizations to develop procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Wuhan was the epicenter of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), outbreak in China. We aimed at surveying the general public in China to better understand their levels of psychological state and its influencing factors after the Wuhan shutdown on January 23. Methods: The cross-sectional survey was conducted online and 4,701 respondents participated in this survey. Of them, 3,803 respondents were considered for final analysis. Data on subjective indicators of daily life changes were collected, and individual scores on changes in anxiety, depression, and stress were tested by 8-item, 11-item, and 6-item questionnaires, respectively. Results: Multivariable regression analyses showed that living in the rural areas, living in the other regions except Hubei, and higher education were independent correlates of less negative emotions. Besides, the level of attention, self-assessed infection risk, impact on the daily life and mental health help-seeking tended to be positively associated with the scores of anxiety, depression, and stress. Conclusions: City of residence, education, marital status, monthly income, level of attention, self-assessed infection risk, impact on daily life and mental health help-seeking were important correlates of anxiety, depression, and stress scores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is publicly known about the conditions surrounding the emergence of COVID in China. Using two nationally representative datasets, the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), we engage in a descriptive analysis of spatiotemporal patterns of lung and other diseases before 2019. In both datasets, the incidence of lung disease in 2018 was elevated in Hubei province relative to other provinces. The incidence of psychiatric and nervous system disease was elevated as well. Overall, the evidence is consistent with many possible explanations. One conjecture is that there was an outbreak of influenza in central China, which implies the conditions that increased the susceptibility to influenza also facilitated the later spread of COVID. Another conjecture, though less likely, is that COVID was circulating at low levels in the population in central China during 2018. This study calls for more investigation to understand the conditions surrounding the emergence of COVID. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, China's industrial economy has grown rapidly and steadily. Concurrently, carbon emissions have gradually increased, among which agricultural production is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions. It is necessary to reduce agricultural carbon emissions by improving their efficiency to achieve the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions in 2030. From a dynamic and static point of view, this study puts agricultural carbon emissions into the evaluation index system of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and analyzes the agricultural carbon emission efficiency and its influencing factors in Hubei Province. First, the unexpected output Slacks-based measure (SBM) model in data envelopment analysis was used to evaluate the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of Hubei Province in 2018 and compared it with other provinces horizontally. Second, the Malmquist–Luenberger index was used to analyze the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018. The role of technological progress and technical efficiency change in the development of low-carbon agriculture in Hubei Province was analyzed. The results showed that agricultural production efficiency in Hubei Province improved from 2004 to 2018, and the overall level was slightly higher than the average level in China. However, agriculture has not eliminated the extensive development modes of high input, low efficiency, high emission, and high pollution. The efficiency of technological progress in agricultural resource utilization in Hubei Province was close to the optimal level. The improvement space was small. Hence, the low efficiency of agricultural technology is a key factor restricting the improvement of agricultural production efficiency. The results provide a reference for low-carbon agricultural policy formulation and expand the policy choice path. This has practical significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To investigate the mortality and health care resource use among patients with severe or critical coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) in the first wave of pandemic in China. Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the mortality, discharge rate, length of hospital stay, and use of invasive ventilation in severe or critical COVID-19 cases in China. We searched electronic databases for studies from China with no restrictions on language or interventions patients received. We screened records, extracted data and assessed the quality of included studies in duplicate. We performed the meta-analysis using random-effect models through a Bayesian framework. Subgroup analyses were conducted to examine studies by disease severity, study location and patient enrolment start date. We also performed sensitivity analysis using various priors, and assessed between-study heterogeneity and publication bias for the primary outcomes. Results: Out of 6,205 titles and abstracts screened, 500 were reviewed in full text. A total of 42 studies were included in the review, of which 95% were observational studies (n = 40). The pooled 28-day and 14-day mortalities among severe or critical patients were 20.48% (7,136 patients, 95% credible interval (CrI), 13.11 to 30.70) and 10.83% (95% CrI, 6.78 to 16.75), respectively. The mortality declined over time and was higher in patients with critical disease than severe cases (1,235 patients, 45.73%, 95% CrI, 22.79 to 73.52 vs. 3,969 patients, 14.90%, 95% CrI, 4.70 to 39.57) and patients in Hubei compared to those outside Hubei (6,719 patients, 26.62%, 95% CrI, 13.11 to 30.70 vs. 244 patients, 5.88%, 95% CrI 2.03 to 14.11). The length of hospital stay was estimated at 18.48 days (6,847 patients, 95% CrI, 17.59 to 21.21), the 28-day discharge rate was 50.48% (3,645 patients, 95% CrI, 26.47 to 79.53), and the use of invasive ventilation rate was 13.46% (4,108 patients, 95% CrI, 7.61 to 22.31). Conclusions: Our systematic review and meta-analysis found high mortality among severe and critical COVID-19 cases. Severe or critical COVID-19 cases consumed a large amount of hospital resources during the outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China, and due to the open accessibility of COVID-19 data, several researchers and modellers revisited the classical epidemiological models to evaluate their practical applicability. While mathematical compartmental models can predict various contagious viruses' dynamics, their efficiency depends on the model parameters. Recently, several parameter estimation methods have been proposed for different models. In this study, we evaluated the Ensemble Kalman filter's performance (EnKF) in the estimation of time-varying model parameters with synthetic data and the real COVID-19 data of Hubei province, China. Contrary to the previous works, in the current study, the effect of damping factors on an augmented EnKF is studied. An augmented EnKF algorithm is provided, and we present how the filter performs in estimating models using uncertain observational (reported) data. Results obtained confirm that the augumented-EnKF approach can provide reliable model parameter estimates. Additionally, there was a good fit of profiles between model simulation and the reported COVID-19 data confirming the possibility of using the augmented-EnKF approach for reliable model parameter estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is to assess the influences of climate, socio-economic determinants, and spatial distance on the confirmed cases and deaths in the raise phase of COVID-19 in China. The positive confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 over the population size of 100,000 over every 5 consecutive days (the CCOPSPTT and DOPSPTT for short, respectively) covered from 25th January to 29th February, 2020 in five city types (i.e., small-, medium-, large-, very large- and super large-sized cities), along with the data of climate, socio-economic determinants, spatial distance of the target city to Wuhan city (DW, for short), and spatial distance between the target city and their local province capital city (DLPC, for short) were collected from the official websites of China. Then the above-mentioned influencing factors on CCOPSPTT and DOPSPTT were analyzed separately in Hubei and other provinces. The results showed that CCOPSPTT and DOPSPTT were significantly different among five city types outside Hubei province (p < 0.05), but not obviously different in Hubei province (p > 0.05). The CCOPSPTT had significant correlation with socio-economic determinants (GDP and population), DW, climate and time after the outbreak of COVID-19 outside Hubei province (p < 0.05), while was only significantly related with GDP in Hubei province (p < 0.05). The DOPSPTT showed significant correlation with socio-economic determinants, DW, time and CCOPSPTT outside Hubei province (p < 0.05), while was significantly correlated with GDP and CCOPSPTT in Hubei province (p < 0.05). Compared with other factors, socio-economic determinants have the largest relative contribution to variance of CCOPSPTT in all studied cities (> 78%). The difference of DOPSPTT among cities was mainly affected by CCOPSPTT. Our results showed that influences of city types on the confirmed cases and death differed between Hubei and other provinces. Socio-economic determinants, especially GDP, have higher impact on the change of COVID-19 transmission compared with other factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: COVID-19 poses a severe threat worldwide. This study analyzes its propagation and evaluates statistically the effect of mobility restriction policies on the spread of the disease. Methods: We apply a variation of the stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model to describe the temporal-spatial evolution of the disease across 33 provincial regions in China, where the disease was first identified. We employ Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods to estimate the model and to characterize a dynamic transmission network, which enables us to evaluate the effectiveness of various local and national policies. Results: The spread of the disease in China was predominantly driven by community transmission within regions, which dropped substantially after local governments imposed various lockdown policies. Further, Hubei was only the epicenter of the early epidemic stage. Secondary epicenters, such as Beijing and Guangdong, had already become established by late January 2020. The transmission from these epicenters substantially declined following the introduction of mobility restrictions across regions. Conclusions: The spatial transmission network is able to differentiate the effect of the local lockdown policies and the cross-region mobility restrictions. We conclude that both are important policy tools for curbing the disease transmission. The coordination between central and local governments is important in suppressing the spread of infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study calculates the effect of different types of land circulation on farmers' decision-making regarding agricultural planting structure, using field survey data involving 1,120 households in Hubei province, China, and PSM (propensity score matching) and GPSM (general propensity score matching) methods. Results from PSM showed that land circulation could significantly increase farmers' decisions to plant food crops, which confirms the positive effect of rural land circulation on the "grain orientation" of crop planting structure. Results from GPSM further indicate that the total land circulation, the paddy land circulation, and the dry land circulation all have significantly positive effects on planting structure adjustment towards "grain orientation." Additionally, planting structure adjustment towards "grain orientation" increases as the scale of land circulation increases, and the former shows a higher rate of increase than the latter, which confirms that rural land circulation facilitates an adjustment in structure towards planting food crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Chinese government's early handling of COVID-19 has been perceived as aggressive and oppressive. Many of the most radical measures were adopted in Henan province, immediately north of Hubei, the pandemic's epicentre in China. However, little is known about how rural residents—a group systematically disadvantaged in Chinese society—responded to authorities' draconian restrictions. Methods: To understand the lockdown measures and rural community responses at the grassroots level, face-to-face interviewers were conducted with both village cadres and villagers from two Henan villages in May and June 2020. The interviews were analysed with qualitative content analysis methods, with the coding process guided by the concepts of resilience, vulnerability and adaptability from the literature on disaster risk reduction. Results: We found that the lockdown measures were indeed radical and disproportionate relative to the level of risk presented; however, they were largely accepted by villagers. This contradiction can be explained by two key contributing factors: (i) shared interests of individual villagers and the converged goal of government and civil society, and (ii) tacit flexibility in COVID-19 adaption strategies to tackle conflict resulting from goal diversion between citizens and local governments. Conclusions: These findings highlight the nuances of ground-level politics. Despite their 'radical' nature, the lockdown measures were not implemented as simple top-down coercion. Instead, they involved, importantly, the bottom-up, localised response of villagers, and they were negotiated and adapted according to local circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study integrates the daily intercity migration data with the classic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model to construct a new model suitable for describing the dynamics of epidemic spreading of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Daily intercity migration data for 367 cities in China were collected from Baidu Migration, a mobile-app based human migration tracking data system. Early outbreak data of infected, recovered and death cases from official source (from January 24 to February 16, 2020) were used for model fitting. The set of model parameters obtained from best data fitting using a constrained nonlinear optimisation procedure was used for estimation of the dynamics of epidemic spreading in the following months. The work was completed on February 19, 2020. Our results showed that the number of infections in most cities in China would peak between mid February to early March 2020, with about 0.8%, less than 0.1% and less than 0.01% of the population eventually infected in Wuhan, Hubei Province and the rest of China, respectively. Moreover, for most cities outside and within Hubei Province (except Wuhan), the total number of infected individuals is expected to be less than 300 and 4000, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In December 2019, the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The epidemic quickly broke out and spread throughout the country. Now it becomes a pandemic that affects the whole world. In this study, three models were used to fit and predict the epidemic situation in China: a modified SEIRD (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Dead) dynamic model, a neural network method LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), and a GWR (Geographically Weighted Regression) model reflecting spatial heterogeneity. Overall, all the three models performed well with great accuracy. The dynamic SEIRD prediction APE (absolute percent error) of China had been ≤ 1.0% since Mid-February. The LSTM model showed comparable accuracy. The GWR model took into account the influence of geographical differences, with R2 = 99.98% in fitting and 97.95% in prediction. Wilcoxon test showed that none of the three models outperformed the other two at the significance level of 0.05. The parametric analysis of the infectious rate and recovery rate demonstrated that China's national policies had effectively slowed down the spread of the epidemic. Furthermore, the models in this study provided a wide range of implications for other countries to predict the short-term and long-term trend of COVID-19, and to evaluate the intensity and effect of their interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the first suspected case of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) on December 1st, 2019, in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, a total of 40,235 confirmed cases and 909 deaths have been reported in China up to February 10, 2020, evoking fear locally and internationally. Here, based on the publicly available epidemiological data for Hubei, China from January 11 to February 10, 2020, we provide estimates of the main epidemiological parameters. In particular, we provide an estimation of the case fatality and case recovery ratios, along with their 90% confidence intervals as the outbreak evolves. On the basis of a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SIDR) model, we provide estimations of the basic reproduction number (R0), and the per day infection mortality and recovery rates. By calibrating the parameters of the SIRD model to the reported data, we also attempt to forecast the evolution of the outbreak at the epicenter three weeks ahead, i.e. until February 29. As the number of infected individuals, especially of those with asymptomatic or mild courses, is suspected to be much higher than the official numbers, which can be considered only as a subset of the actual numbers of infected and recovered cases in the total population, we have repeated the calculations under a second scenario that considers twenty times the number of confirmed infected cases and forty times the number of recovered, leaving the number of deaths unchanged. Based on the reported data, the expected value of R0 as computed considering the period from the 11th of January until the 18th of January, using the official counts of confirmed cases was found to be ∼4.6, while the one computed under the second scenario was found to be ∼3.2. Thus, based on the SIRD simulations, the estimated average value of R0 was found to be ∼2.6 based on confirmed cases and ∼2 based on the second scenario. Our forecasting flashes a note of caution for the presently unfolding outbreak in China. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the simulations suggest that the cumulative number of infected could reach 180,000 (with a lower bound of 45,000) by February 29. Regarding the number of deaths, simulations forecast that on the basis of the up to the 10th of February reported data, the death toll might exceed 2,700 (as a lower bound) by February 29. Our analysis further reveals a significant decline of the case fatality ratio from January 26 to which various factors may have contributed, such as the severe control measures taken in Hubei, China (e.g. quarantine and hospitalization of infected individuals), but mainly because of the fact that the actual cumulative numbers of infected and recovered cases in the population most likely are much higher than the reported ones. Thus, in a scenario where we have taken twenty times the confirmed number of infected and forty times the confirmed number of recovered cases, the case fatality ratio is around ∼0.15% in the total population. Importantly, based on this scenario, simulations suggest a slow down of the outbreak in Hubei at the end of February. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The distribution of HLA alleles and haplotypes varies widely between different ethnic populations and geographic areas. Before any genetic marker can be used in a disease-associated study it is therefore essential to investigate allelic frequencies and establish a genetic database. Methodology/Principal Findings: This is the first report of HLA typing in the Tujia group using the Luminex HLA-SSO method HLA-A, -B and -DRB1 allelic distributions were determined in 124 unrelated healthy Tujia individuals, and haplotypic frequencies and linkage disequilibrium parameters were estimated using the maximum-likelihood method. In total 10 alleles were detected at the HLA-A locus, 21 alleles at the HLA-B locus and 14 alleles at the HLA-DRB1 locus. The most frequently observed alleles in the HLA-I group were HLA-A*02 (35.48%), A*11 (28.23%), A*24 (15.73%); HLA-B*40 (25.00%), B*46 (16.13%), and B*15 (15.73%). Among HLA-DRB1 alleles, high frequencies of HLA-DRB1*09 (25.81%) were observed, followed by HLA-DRB1*15 (12.9%), and DRB1*12 (10.89%). The two-locus haplotypes at the highest frequency were A*02-B*46A (8.47%), followed by A*11-B*40 (7.66%), A*02-B*40 (8.87%), A*11-B*15 (6.45%), A*02-B*15 (6.05%), B*40-DRB1*09 (9.27%) and B*46-DRB1*09 (6.45%). The most common three-locus haplotypes found in the Tujia population were A*02-B*46-DRB1*09 (4.84%) and A*02-B*40-DRB1*09 (4.03%). Fourteen two-loci haplotypes had significant linkage disequilibrium. Construction of a neighbor-joining phylogenetic tree and principal component analysis using the allelic frequencies at HLA-A was performed to compare the Tujia group and twelve other previously reported populations. The Tujia population in the Wufeng of Hubei Province had the closest genetic relationship with the central Han population, and then to the Shui, the Miao, the southern Han and the northern Han ethnic groups. Conclusions/Significance: These results will become a valuable source of data for tracing population migration, planning clinical organ transplantation, carrying out HLA-linked disease-associated studies and forensic identification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]