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The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) is only one of several organisations internationally that uses economic evaluation as part of decision making regarding funding and pricing of new medical technologies. However, it can be argued that NICE has developed a more prominent international profile than most in their use of economics. After 20 years of operation, it is timely to assess the extent of NICE's achievements, including the economic evaluation methods it has used and its willingness to adapt these as new evaluative approaches emerge and when NICE faces particular policy challenges. This paper considers some of the important policy and contextual developments in the UK over the last 20 years and how these may have shaped NICE's approach to economic evaluation. It then assesses key areas of NICE methods, including perspective, defining benefits, modelling and uncertainty. The paper concludes that NICE has provided important support for the development of new methods, in particular through its role in identifying priorities for methods research funding and its sponsorship of the NICE Decision Support Unit. However, potentially important developments in methods in a number of important areas have yet to be formally included in NICE's methods guidance and this should be addressed in the Institute's 2019/2020 methods review. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The Swedish Dental and Pharmaceutical Benefits Agency (TLV) is the government body responsible for deciding whether outpatient drugs are to be included in the pharmaceutical benefits scheme. This paper analyzes the impact of cost effectiveness and severity of disease on reimbursement decisions for new pharmaceuticals.Methods: Data has been extracted from all decisions made by the TLV between 2005 and 2011. Cost effectiveness is measured as the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, whereas disease severity is a binary variable (severe-not severe). In total, the dataset consists of 102 decisions, with 86 approved and 16 declined reimbursements.Results: The lowest cost per QALY of declined reimbursements is Swedish kronor (SEK) 700,000 (€ 79,100), while the highest cost per QALY of approved reimbursements is SEK1,220,000 (€ 135,600). At a cost per QALY of SEK702,000 Swedish kronor (non-severe diseases) and SEK988,000 (severe diseases), the likelihood of approval is estimated to be 50/50 (€ 79,400 and € 111,700).Conclusions: The TLV places substantial weight on both the cost effectiveness and the severity of disease in reimbursement decisions, and the implied willingness to pay for a QALY is higher than the often cited 'rule of thumb' in Swedish policy debates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pre-eclampsia is a pregnancy complication affecting both mother and fetus. Although there is no proven effective method to prevent pre-eclampsia, early identification of women at risk of pre-eclampsia could enhance appropriate application of antenatal care, management and treatment. Very little is known about the cost effectiveness of these and other tests for pre-eclampsia, mainly because there is no clear treatment path. The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive overview of the existing evidence on the health economics of screening, diagnosis and treatment options in pre-eclampsia.Methods: We searched three electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library) for studies on screening, diagnosis, treatment or prevention of pre-eclampsia, published between 1994 and 2014. Only full papers written in English containing complete economic assessments in pre-eclampsia were included.Results: From an initial total of 138 references, six papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Three studies were on the cost effectiveness of treatment of pre-eclampsia, two of which evaluated magnesium sulphate for prevention of seizures and the third evaluated the cost effectiveness of induction of labour versus expectant monitoring. The other three studies were aimed at screening and diagnosis, in combination with subsequent preventive measures. The two studies on magnesium sulphate were equivocal on the cost effectiveness in non-severe cases, and the other study suggested that induction of labour in term pre-eclampsia was more cost effective than expectant monitoring. The screening studies were quite diverse in their objectives as well as in their conclusions. One study concluded that screening is probably not worthwhile, while two other studies stated that in certain scenarios it may be cost effective to screen all pregnant women and prophylactically treat those who are found to be at high risk of developing pre-eclampsia.Discussion: This study is the first to provide a comprehensive overview on the economic aspects of pre-eclampsia in its broadest sense, ranging from screening to treatment options. The main limitation of the present study lies in the variety of topics in combination with the limited number of papers that could be included; this restricted the comparisons that could be made. In conclusion, novel biomarkers in screening for and diagnosing pre-eclampsia show promise, but their accuracy is a major driver of cost effectiveness, as is prevalence. Universal screening for pre-eclampsia, using a biomarker, will be feasible only when accuracy is significantly increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Value of information (VOI) analysis often requires modeling to characterize and propagate uncertainty. In collaboration with a cancer clinical trial group, we integrated a VOI approach to assessing trial proposals.Objective: This paper aims to explore the impact of modeling choices on VOI results and to share lessons learned from the experience.Methods: After selecting two proposals (A: phase III, breast cancer; B: phase II, pancreatic cancer) for in-depth evaluations, we categorized key modeling choices relevant to trial decision makers (characterizing uncertainty of efficacy, evidence thresholds to change clinical practice, and sample size) and modelers (cycle length, survival distribution, simulation runs, and other choices). Using a $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold, we calculated the patient-level expected value of sample information (EVSI) for each proposal and examined whether each modeling choice led to relative change of more than 10% from the averaged base-case estimate. We separately analyzed the impact of the effective time horizon.Results: The base-case EVSI was $118,300 for Proposal A and $22,200 for Proposal B per patient. Characterizing uncertainty of efficacy was the most important choice in both proposals (e.g. Proposal A: $118,300 using historical data vs. $348,300 using expert survey), followed by the sample size and the choice of survival distribution. The assumed effective time horizon also had a substantial impact on the population-level EVSI.Conclusions: Modeling choices can have a substantial impact on VOI. Therefore, it is important for groups working to incorporate VOI into research prioritization to adhere to best practices, be clear in their reporting and justification for modeling choices, and to work closely with the relevant decision makers, with particular attention to modeling choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many healthcare organizations are now making good use of electronic health record (EHR) systems to record clinical information about their patients and the details of their healthcare. Electronic data in EHRs is generated by people engaged in complex processes within complex environments, and their human input, albeit shaped by computer systems, is compromised by many human factors. These data are potentially valuable to health economists and outcomes researchers but are sufficiently large and complex enough to be considered part of the new frontier of 'big data'. This paper describes emerging methods that draw together data mining, process modelling, activity-based costing and dynamic simulation models. Our research infrastructure includes safe links to Leeds hospital's EHRs with 3 million secondary and tertiary care patients. We created a multidisciplinary team of health economists, clinical specialists, and data and computer scientists, and developed a dynamic simulation tool called NETIMIS (Network Tools for Intervention Modelling with Intelligent Simulation; http://www.netimis.com ) suitable for visualization of both human-designed and data-mined processes which can then be used for 'what-if' analysis by stakeholders interested in costing, designing and evaluating healthcare interventions. We present two examples of model development to illustrate how dynamic simulation can be informed by big data from an EHR. We found the tool provided a focal point for multidisciplinary team work to help them iteratively and collaboratively 'deep dive' into big data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing appetite for large complex databases that integrate a range of personal, socio-demographic, health, genetic and financial information on individuals. It has been argued that 'Big Data' will provide the necessary catalyst to advance both biomedical research and health economics and outcomes research. However, it is important that we do not succumb to being data rich but information poor. This paper discusses the benefits and challenges of building Big Data, analysing Big Data and making appropriate inferences in order to advance cancer care, using Cancer 2015 (a prospective, longitudinal, genomic cohort study in Victoria, Australia) as a case study. Cancer 2015 has been linked to State and Commonwealth reimbursement databases that have known limitations. This partly reflects the funding arrangements in Australia, a country with both public and private provision, including public funding of private healthcare, and partly the legislative frameworks that govern data linkage. Additionally, linkage is not without time delays and, as such, achieving a contemporaneous database is challenging. Despite these limitations, there is clear value in using linked data and creating Big Data. This paper describes the linked Cancer 2015 dataset, discusses estimation issues given the nature of the data and presents panel regression results that allow us to make possible inferences regarding which patient, disease, genomic and treatment characteristics explain variation in health expenditure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines recent advances in the methods of cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Economic evaluations in healthcare can be criticised for, amongst other things, the inappropriate use of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and the reporting of benefits in terms of cost savings, such as treatment costs averted. Many such economic evaluations are, according to the ‘scientific’ definition, CBAs. The ‘balance-sheet’ (or opportunity cost) approach is a form of CBA which can be used to identify who bears the costs and who reaps the benefits from any change. Whilst the next stage in a CBA, as defined in health economics, would require that all costs and benefits be valued in monetary terms, the balance-sheet approach, however, advocates that available monetary values can be augmented by other measures of cost and benefit. As such, this approach, which has a theoretical basis, is proposed as a practical prescription for CBA and highlights the notion that unquantified benefits are important and can be included within CBAs even when monetarisation is not possible. Recent methodological developments in monetary valuation for use in CBA are the development of the technique of willingness to pay, the use of conjoint analysis (CA) to elicit willingness-to-pay (WTP) values and advances in the debate on the inclusion of production gains in CBAs. Whilst acknowledging that there have been developments in each of these areas, it is claimed there has also been progress in using CBA as a framework for evaluation, as reflected by the balance-sheet approach. The paper concludes by stating that almost all types of economic evaluation have an element of the ‘cost-benefit’ approach in them. The important issue is to focus on the policy question to be addressed and to outline the relevant costs and benefits in a manner which assists the evaluation of welfare changes resulting from changes in healthcare delivery. The focus should not be on moulding a question to fit a hybrid definition of an analytical technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many countries, including Thailand, there is an increasing impetus to use economic evaluation to allow more explicit and transparent healthcare priority setting. However, an important question for policy makers in low- and middle-income countries is whether it is appropriate and feasible to introduce economic evaluation data into healthcare priority-setting decisions. In addition to ethical, social and political issues, information supply challenges need to be addressed. This paper systematically reviewed the literature on economic evaluation of health technology in Thailand published between 1982 and 2005. Its aim was to analyse the quantity, quality and targeting of economic evaluation studies that can provide a framework for those conducting similar reviews in other settings. The review revealed that, although the number of publications reporting economic evaluations has increased significantly in recent years, serious attention needs to be given to the quality of reporting and analysis. Furthermore, there is an absence of economic evaluation publications for 15 of the top 20 major health problems in Thailand, indicating a poor distribution of research resources towards the determination of cost-effective interventions for diminishing the disease burden of certain major health problems. If economic evaluation is only useful for policy makers when performed correctly and reported accurately, these findings depict information barriers to using economic evaluation to assist health decision-making processes in Thailand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection affects 170 million individuals worldwide. As it is detected incidentally through the evaluation of liver function tests or at the time of blood donor testing, it is usually clinically silent until the advanced stages of liver disease have occurred, when treatment is less effective and shortages of donor liver organs limit the therapeutic options. Combination therapy with ribavirin and pegylated interferon has resulted in sustained viral negative response rates of 54–61%. Because treatment is expensive and not uniformly effective, and because not all chronically infected patients will develop complications, concerns have arisen regarding the cost effectiveness of combination therapy.This paper reviews the public health and individual implications of HCV infections. Because of the latency of infection, numerous country-specific population analyses suggest that HCV will cause an increasing number of liver-related deaths over the next 10 years, despite the dramatic drop in incidence over the past 10–15 years. These deaths will be related to prevalent HCV infection from transfusion and injection drug use prior to identification of the virus and availability of screening tests in the late 1980s and early 1990s. HCV can reduce life expectancy and impair quality of life, yet not all patients will develop progressive liver disease, and antiviral treatment may have associated adverse effects.Finally, to assess the value of antiviral drugs for HCV infection, this paper reviews studies examining the costs of antiviral drugs and of the disease itself along with response to antiviral therapy and the cost effectiveness of antiviral therapy. Although antiviral therapy appears to be expensive, when also considering the likelihood of sustained viral response to therapy, and the cost savings, quality-of-life improvement and prolongation of life expectancy from the prevention of HCV complications, antiviral treatment for HCV appears to be cost effective when compared with other well accepted medical interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Frequently, within economic evaluations, data are subject to censoring, and ignoring censored data will lead to an underestimation of mean total costs. Several techniques have been published that can be used to estimate mean total costs and standard errors, and allow for censoring within cost data. This paper reviews these techniques and compares the mean total costs estimates generated by each method for different types of censoring.Methods: Nine techniques were identified that can be used to estimate mean total costs and standard errors in the presence of censoring: ignoring censoring; ignoring censored costs; Lin's method--with and without cost histories; weighted cost method--with and without cost histories; Lin's regression method--with and without cost histories; and Carides' regression method. These methods are compared across four different censoring mechanisms--random censoring, end-of-study censoring, informative censoring and partial censoring--by simulating the censoring mechanisms from a complete cohort of patients included in the CELT (Cost Effectiveness of Liver Transplantation) study.Results: The observed mean cost and standard error from the CELT data were 36,045 pounds sterling and 1517 pounds sterling (1998 values). Estimates under informative censoring were the least accurate predictors of mean total costs and tended to overestimate mean costs by > 1000 pounds sterling. Carides' regression method predicted mean total costs to within 3 pounds sterling of the observed mean and represented one of the three most accurate methods for predicting mean total costs (together with the weighted cost method with known cost histories and Lin's method with unknown cost histories). Lin's method with known cost histories gave the least accurate estimates of mean total costs and underpredicted costs by 2137-4859 pounds sterling across censoring mechanisms. Carides' method did not predict uncertainty around the mean costs well, and the weighted cost method with known cost histories and ignoring censoring were the best methods to use for estimating the standard error of the mean cost.Conclusions: Further work should be carried out on other datasets to confirm the generalisability of these results. Although Carides' regression method and Lin's method with unknown cost histories were the best estimators of mean total costs across censoring mechanisms, the weighted cost method with known cost histories is the preferred method for obtaining an accurate estimate of the mean total cost alone and the uncertainty surrounding it; therefore, it should be used to estimate mean costs and standard errors when patient cost histories are known. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ 4.0 Short Form 15 Generic Core Scales (hereafter the PedsQL) and the Child Health Utility-9 Dimensions (CHU9D) are two generic instruments designed to measure health-related quality of life in children and adolescents in the general population and paediatric patient groups living with specific health conditions. Although the PedsQL is widely used among paediatric patient populations, presently it is not possible to directly use the scores from the instrument to calculate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for application in economic evaluation because it produces summary scores which are not preference-based.Objective: This paper examines different econometric mapping techniques for estimating CHU9D utility scores from the PedsQL for the purpose of calculating QALYs for cost-utility analysis.Methods: The PedsQL and the CHU9D were completed by a community sample of 755 Australian adolescents aged 15-17 years. Seven regression models were estimated: ordinary least squares estimator, generalised linear model, robust MM estimator, multivariate factorial polynomial estimator, beta-binomial estimator, finite mixture model and multinomial logistic model. The mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean squared error (MSE) were used to assess predictive ability of the models.Results: The MM estimator with stepwise-selected PedsQL dimension scores as explanatory variables had the best predictive accuracy using MAE and the equivalent beta-binomial model had the best predictive accuracy using MSE.Conclusions: Our mapping algorithm facilitates the estimation of health-state utilities for use within economic evaluations where only PedsQL data is available and is suitable for use in community-based adolescents aged 15-17 years. Applicability of the algorithm in younger populations should be assessed in further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Economic evaluation of health services commonly requires information regarding health-state utilities. Sometimes this information is not available but non-utility measures of quality of life may have been collected from which the required utilities can be estimated. This paper examines the possibility of mapping a non-utility-based outcome, the Sydney Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (AQLQ-S), onto five multi-attribute utility instruments: Assessment of Quality of Life 8 Dimensions (AQoL-8D), EuroQoL 5 Dimensions 5-Level (EQ-5D-5L), Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3), 15 Dimensions (15D), and the Short-Form 6 Dimensions (SF-6D).Methods: Data for 856 individuals with asthma were obtained from a large Multi-Instrument Comparison (MIC) survey. Four statistical techniques were employed to estimate utilities from the AQLQ-S. The predictive accuracy of 180 regression models was assessed using six criteria: mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation, distribution of predicted utilities, distribution of residuals, and proportion of predictions with absolute errors <0.0.5. Validation of initial 'primary' models was carried out on a random sample of the MIC data.Results: Best results were obtained with non-linear models that included a quadratic term for the AQLQ-S score along with demographic variables. The four statistical techniques predicted models that performed differently when assessed by the six criteria; however, the best results, for both the estimation and validation samples, were obtained using a generalised linear model (GLM estimator).Conclusions: It is possible to predict valid utilities from the AQLQ-S using regression methods. We recommend GLM models for this exercise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of lenalidomide (Celgene) to submit evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of the drug for treating adults with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) associated with deletion 5q cytogenetic abnormality, as part of the Institute's single technology appraisal (STA) process. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd (KSR), in collaboration with Erasmus University Rotterdam, was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper describes the company's submission, the ERG review, and the NICE's subsequent decisions. The ERG reviewed the evidence for clinical and cost effectiveness of the technology, as submitted by the manufacturer to the NICE. The ERG searched for relevant additional evidence and validated the manufacturer's decision analytic model to examine the robustness of the cost-effectiveness results. Clinical effectiveness was obtained from a three-arm, European, randomized, phase III trial among red blood cell (RBC) transfusion-dependent patients with low-/intermediate-1-risk del5q31 MDS. The primary endpoint was RBC independence for ≥26 weeks, and was reached by a higher proportion of patients in the lenalidomide 10 and 5 mg groups compared with placebo (56.1 and 42.6 vs 5.9 %, respectively; both p < 0.001). The option of dose adjustments after 16 weeks due to dose-limiting toxicities or lack of response made long-term effectiveness estimates unreliable, e.g. overall survival (OS). The de novo model of the manufacturer included a Markov state-transition cost-utility model implemented in Microsoft Excel. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the manufacturer was £56,965. The ERG assessment indicated that the modeling structure represented the course of the disease; however, a few errors were identified and some of the input parameters were challenged. In response to the appraisal documentation, the company revised the economic model, which increased the ICER to £68,125 per quality-adjusted life-year. The NICE Appraisal Committee (AC) did not recommend lenalidomide as a cost-effective treatment. Subsequently, the manufacturer submitted a Patient Access Scheme (PAS) that provided lenalidomide free of charge for patients who remained on treatment after 26 cycles. This PAS improved the ICER to £25,300, although the AC considered the proportion of patients who received treatment beyond 26 cycles, and hence the ICER, to be uncertain. Nevertheless, the AC accepted a commitment from the manufacturer to publish, once available, data on the proportion of patients eligible for the PAS, and believed this provided reassurance that lenalidomide was a cost-effective treatment for low- or intermediate-1-risk MDS patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited Dendreon, the company manufacturing sipuleucel-T, to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of sipuleucel-T for asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, metastatic, non-visceral hormone-relapsed prostate cancer patients in whom chemotherapy is not yet clinically indicated, as part of NICE's single technology appraisal process. The comparator was abiraterone acetate (AA) or best supportive care (BSC). The School of Health and Related Research at the University of Sheffield was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper describes the company submission (CS), ERG review, and subsequent decision of the NICE Appraisal Committee (AC). The ERG produced a critical review of the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence of sipuleucel-T based upon the CS. Clinical-effectiveness data relevant to the decision problem were taken from three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of sipuleucel-T and a placebo (PBO) comparator of antigen-presenting cells (APC) being re-infused (APC-PBO) (D9901, D9902A and D9902B), and one RCT (COU-AA-302) of AA plus prednisone vs. PBO plus prednisone. Two trials reported a significant advantage for sipuleucel-T in median overall survival compared with APC-PBO: for trial D9901, an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.47; (95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.29, 0.76) p < 0.002; for D9902B, adjusted HR 0.78 (95 % CI 0.61, 0.98) p = 0.03. There was no significant difference between groups in D9902A, unadjusted HR 0.79 (95 % CI 0.48, 1.28) p = 0.331. Sipuleucel-T and APC-PBO groups did not differ significantly in time to disease progression, in any of the three RCTs. Most adverse events developed within 1 day of the infusion, and resolved within 2 days. The CS included an indirect comparison of sipuleucel-T (D9902B) and AA plus prednisone (COU-AA-302). As trials differed in prior use of chemotherapy, an analysis of only chemotherapy-naïve patients was included, in which the overall survival for sipuleucel-T and AA was not significantly different, HR 0.94 (95 % CI 0.69, 1.28) p = 0.699. The ERG had several concerns regarding the data and assumptions incorporated within the company's cost-effectiveness analyses and conducted exploratory analyses to quantify the impact of making alternative assumptions or using alternative data inputs. The deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for sipuleucel-T vs. BSC when using the ERG's preferred data and assumptions was £ 108,585 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) in the whole licensed population and £ 61,204/QALY in the subgroup with low prostate-specific antigen at baseline. The ERG also conducted an incremental analysis comparing sipuleucel-T with both AA and BSC in the chemotherapy-naïve subgroup. Sipuleucel-T had a deterministic ICER of £ 111,682/QALY in this subgroup, when using the ERG's preferred assumptions, and AA was extendedly dominated. The ERG also concluded that estimates of costs and benefits for AA should be interpreted with caution given the limitations of the indirect comparison. The AC noted that the ICER for sipuleucel-T was well above the range usually considered cost effective, and did not recommend sipuleucel-T for the treatment of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, metastatic, non-visceral hormone-relapsed prostate cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current practice in the UK, Europe and the USA generally consists of opportunistic/unorganised prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, with a recommendation against formal screening [[4]-[9]]. Our paper found that the strategies experts recommend are no screening, age-based screening and different risk-stratified approaches (with no specific age limits, screening intervals, or risk thresholds within these). [Extracted from the article]

Estimates of the relative effects of competing treatments are rarely available from head-to-head trials. These effects must therefore be derived from indirect comparisons of results from different studies. The feasibility of comparisons relies on the network linking treatments through common comparators; the reliability of these may also be impacted when the studies are heterogeneous or when multiple intermediate comparisons are needed to link two specific treatments of interest. Simulated treatment comparison and matching-adjusted indirect comparison have been developed to address these challenges. These focus on comparisons of outcomes for two specific treatments of interest by using patient-level data for one treatment (the index) and published results for the other treatment (the comparator) from compatible studies, taking into account possible confounding due to population differences. This paper provides an overview of how and when these approaches can be used as an alternative or to complement standard MTC approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Within Europe, contrasting approaches have emerged for rewarding the value added by new drugs. In Ireland, The Netherlands, Sweden and the UK, the price of, and access to, a new drug has to be justified by the health gain it delivers compared with current therapy, typically expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. By contrast, in France and Germany, the assessment of added benefit is expressed on an ordinal scale, based on an assessment of the clinical outcomes as compared with existing care. This assessment then influences price negotiations. The objective of this paper is to assess the pros and cons of each approach, both in terms of the assessments they produce and the efficiency and practical feasibility of the process. Methods: We reviewed the technology appraisals performed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) relating to 49 anticancer drug decisions in the UK from September 2003 to January 2012. Estimates of the QALYs gained and incremental cost per QALY gained were then compared with the assessments of the Amélioration du Service Médical Rendu (ASMR) made by the Haute Autorité de Santé (HAS) in France for the same drugs in the same clinical indications. We also undertook a qualitative assessment of the two approaches, considering the resources required, timeliness, transparency, stakeholder engagement, and political acceptability. Results: In the UK, the estimates of QALYs gained ranged from 0.003 to 1.46 and estimates of incremental cost per QALY from £3,320 to £458,000. The estimate of cost per QALY gained was a good predictor of the level of restriction imposed on the use of the drug concerned. Patient access schemes, which normally imply price reductions, were proposed in 45 % of cases. In France, the distribution of ASMRs was I, 12 %; II, 18 %; III, 24 %; IV, 18 %; V, 22 %; and uncategorized/non-reimbursed, 4 %. Since ASMRs of IV and above signify minor or no improvement over existing therapy, these ratings imply that, in around 40 % of cases, the drugs concerned would face price controls. Overall, the assessments of value added in the two jurisdictions were very similar. A superior ASMR rating was associated with higher QALYs gained. However, a superior ASMR was not associated with a lower incremental cost per QALY. There are substantial differences in respect of the other attributes considered, but these mainly reflect the result of institutional choices in the jurisdictions concerned and it is not possible to conclude that one approach is universally superior to the other. Conclusions: The two approaches produce very similar assessments of added value, but have different attributes in terms of cost, timeliness, transparency and political acceptability. How these considerations impact market access and prices is difficult to assess, because of the lack of transparency concerning prices in both countries and the fact that market access also depends on a broader range of factors. There is some evidence of convergence in the approaches, with the movement in France towards producing cost-effectiveness estimates and the movement in the UK towards negotiated prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: In Australia, no therapeutic agents were subsidised for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary artery hypertension (iPAH), a rare progressive and severe disease with short life expectancy, until 1 March 2004, when bosentan (a dual endothelin receptor antagonist of high cost) was listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). Bosentan, in addition to conventional therapy, has been shown to slow iPAH progression and improve clinical and haemodynamic status and symptomatology, compared with placebo and conventional therapy. The objective of this paper is to describe the process of the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme listing for bosentan (Tracleer), which included a health economic model assessing the cost effectiveness of bosentan from a healthcare payer perspective, and a risk-sharing arrangement based on the establishment of a patient registry.Methods: The health economic model predicted the cost, hospitalisation and mortality rates of a population of iPAH patients treated with either the conventional therapy regimen used in Australia or bosentan plus the conventional therapy regimen. The model was implemented as a first-order Monte Carlo simulation with mortality modelled directly as the main clinical outcome. The impacts of proposed continuation criteria, restricting the ongoing use of the drug, were evaluated. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 5% and a sensitivity analysis examined the robustness of the key assumptions.Results: The model predicted that after 5, 10 and 15 years, the difference in average cumulative costs between bosentan plus conventional therapy and conventional therapy alone would be 116,929 Australian dollars (A dollars), A181,808 dollars and A216,331 dollars for each patient, respectively. There would be an associated increase in average life expectancy of 1.39, 2.93 and 3.87 years at 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at 15 years of A55,927 dollars for each life-year gained. Removing the continuation criteria from the model increased the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio to A62,267 dollars (1996-2002 values).Conclusions: Economic modelling based on improved survival suggests bosentan to be a potentially cost-effective treatment for iPAH. However, the structure of the model and its inputs should be reviewed and updated as more data become available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of recent findings from the literature imply that the value of a QALY varies depending on the concentration or dispersion of that QALY over treated individuals. Given that funding decisions are currently made under either the assumption of distributive-neutrality or some combination of explicit decision criteria and implicit adjustment for distributional concerns, it is likely that substantial social welfare gains are available if distributional objectives could be more accurately reflected in funding decisions. This paper considers three alternative approaches to explicitly adjust for distributional concerns with regard to the concentration or dispersion of individual health gains. Including non-health arguments in the objective function by 'weighting' QALYs for distributional effects or imposing differential funding thresholds for interventions with different distributional effects might be considered first- and second-best solutions, and would likely deliver the greatest social welfare gains. However, there is some doubt that first- or second-best solutions would be: (i) feasible given current data gaps; and (ii) politically acceptable. Rather, a simple and transparent approach is suggested wherein the sponsors of interventions that deliver health gains that are of questionable 'welfare-significance' for the treated individual would be required to provide decision-makers with an estimate of willingness to pay for the QALYs in question and would only be eligible for funding in the event that the positive net present value criterion is met. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aromatase inhibitors (AIs) have been evaluated clinically in a wide range of breast cancer treatment settings. Although these agents appear to have clinical superiority, they are more expensive than the therapies (primarily tamoxifen) they have been compared with, thus economic evaluation is required to consider their incremental value to the payer. This paper reviews published economic evaluations of AIs as first-line therapy for advanced cancer, and as adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer. The evaluations in the advanced setting demonstrate a range of different modelling techniques and consider the payer's perspective in three healthcare systems. There is broad similarity in the application of standard cohort Markov modelling techniques to evaluate AIs in the early breast cancer setting, covering four separate health system perspectives. AIs appear cost effective compared with current practice. An analysis in the advanced setting suggests that letrozole may be the more cost-effective AI. No direct comparisons of alternative AIs in the adjuvant setting are reported, although indirect comparisons may be feasible. Future evaluations of treatment strategies over the entire course of the disease may also be needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Rising public and private expenditure on antipsychotic medications is concentrated on the cost of second generation or 'atypical' medications, which are more expensive than first generation medications and make up a rapidly growing share of all antipsychotic prescriptions. Previous studies have examined whether the higher acquisition costs of atypicals are offset by other cost and/or utilisation benefits. This paper extends this literature by examining possible effects of atypicals on earnings and related measures of labour supply in a large naturalistic study with a long-term follow-up period.Methods: We analysed data on earnings and other characteristics from the Schizophrenia Care and Assessment Program (SCAP), a 3-year longitudinal study (with data collection during the years 1997-2003) of 2327 adults with schizophrenia (including schizoaffective and schizophreniform disorders) recruited from behavioural healthcare provider systems in six areas of the US. We used empirical criteria and data from the SCAP database to identify 336 patients aged < 50 years who were in the stable or 'maintenance' phase of their antipsychotic treatment during the 6 months prior to baseline. Effects of atypicals compared with typicals were estimated from Tobit regression models that included additional covariates and the baseline-dependent variable values. Regression-dependent variables were reported earnings per month, hours worked per month, days worked per month and a binary indicator of employment. To control for the effect of selection bias in choice of type of atypical, we employed an instrumental variables (IV) estimation procedure.Results: For all dependent variables, our IV Tobit regressions yielded consistently positive coefficient estimates for atypical use that were either marginally significant (p < 0.1) or significant (p < 0.05) for earnings, significant for hours and days of work and not as consistently significant for employment status. Results from these regressions imply a positive effect of atypical use on monthly earnings in the range of Dollars US 107-122. In regressions that did not control for selection bias by using IVs, coefficients for atypical use were often negative and never statistically significant.Conclusions: Our results indicate that higher drug costs of atypicals for maintenance-phase treatment are at least partially offset by higher earnings among patients. These effects represent benefits to consumers as well as savings to taxpayer-supported income transfer programmes. Future studies should seek to determine if treatment with atypicals increases patients' earnings via better control over negative symptoms and/or improved patient cognition. Both appear to be connected with employment and labour supply in patients with schizophrenia, and both may be improved through use of atypicals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To estimate the cost effectiveness (from the UK NHS and personal social services perspective) of the cholinesterase inhibitors donepezil, rivastigmine and galantamine compared with usual care in the treatment of mild to moderately severe Alzheimer's disease. Patients had a mean age of 74 years, a mean disease duration of 1 year and a mean Alzheimer's disease assessment scale-cognitive subscale score of 24.Methods: A pharmacoeconomic model was used to predict long-term outcomes over a 5-year time horizon and to estimate the cost effectiveness of cholinesterase inhibitors for the management of Alzheimer's disease. The model structure is informed by a systematic review of the literature on the clinical and cost effectiveness of cholinesterase inhibitors and a review of the literature on the costs and outcomes associated with treatment for Alzheimer's disease. The main outcome measure used was the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. All healthcare costs (excluding cholinesterase inhibitor costs) were indexed to pounds sterling (2003 values). Drug costs are 2005 values. Multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis were undertaken to assess uncertainty in the results.Results: The clinical benefits on cognition from treatment with cholinesterase inhibitors resulted in an incremental cost per QALY gained ranging from 53,780 pounds sterling to 74,735 pounds sterling, over 5 years (vs usual care). Uncertainty analysis suggests that the probability of any of these treatments having an incremental cost per QALY of < 30,000 pounds sterling is < 21%. The key determinants of cost effectiveness were the effectiveness of treatment, the mean treatment cost and the cost savings associated with an expected delay in disease progression.Conclusions: Results presented in this paper suggest that the use of cholinesterase inhibitors may not be a cost-effective use of NHS resources. Guidance from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Effectiveness (NICE) in the UK on their judgements surrounding the acceptability of technologies as an effective use of resources, indicates there would need to be special reasons for accepting cholinesterase inhibitors as a cost-effective use of NHS resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic burden of influenza-related illness has been estimated to be 71.3-166 billion US dollars in the US, the majority of which is attributable to indirect costs as a result of lost productivity. There are currently four antiviral drugs available for the treatment of influenza: two ion channel blockers, amantadine and rimantadine; and two neuraminidase inhibitors, zanamivir and oseltamivir. The objective of this paper was to review the studies evaluating the cost effectiveness of currently available antiviral treatment and prophylaxis management strategies for influenza. Published studies that reported both costs and effectiveness of influenza management were extracted using MEDLINE, pre-MEDLINE and EMBASE. To facilitate a broad comparison, all costs were inflated to 2003 US dollars. Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria of the review, with 14 analyses based on decision-analytic modelling and one economic analysis performed alongside a clinical trial. Management strategies included antiviral influenza prophylaxis or vaccination, empiric treatment of suspected disease, or antiviral treatment following rapid influenza testing. Study populations included healthy adults, adults at risk of influenza-related adverse outcomes, institutionalised and non-institutionalised elderly, and children. The comparator in all studies was standard care (i.e. over-the-counter medications only), and analyses were carried out from both the societal and payer perspectives. The only dominant strategy relative to standard care was vaccination of the institutionalised elderly. All other strategies in all populations were both more costly and more effective than standard care. Depending on the population and the perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for antiviral treatment strategies ranged from 5000 US dollars/QALY for amantadine in test-and-treat studies to >400,000 US dollars/QALY for zanamivir or oseltamivir treatment in children. Sensitivity analysis in all studies consistently reported a strong influence of the population prevalence or diagnostic accuracy of influenza on the cost effectiveness of all strategies. Baseline influenza prevalence varied widely between studies, ranging from 15% to 68%. There was also a wide variation in the assumption about the disutility of influenza (ranging from -0.137 to -0.983 for the elderly requiring hospitalisation), which also impacted the cost effectiveness. Given the variation in the ICERs of antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, the uncertainty around many model parameters, and the dynamic nature of influenza from year to year, one can only conclude that antiviral treatment or prophylaxis for influenza is likely to be more cost effective in specific populations at specific times during the influenza season, and during influenza seasons when the population prevalence reaches epidemic levels or there is mismatch between the vaccine and the circulating virus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The anogenital human papillomavirus (HPV) is estimated to be the most commonly occurring sexually transmitted infection in the US. Comprehensive estimates of the annual economic burden associated with the prevention and treatment of anogenital HPV-related disease in the US population are currently unavailable. The purpose of this paper is to (i) outline an analytic framework from which to estimate the annual economic burden of preventing and treating anogenital HPV-related disease in the US; (ii) review available US literature concerning the annual economic burden of HPV; and (iii) highlight gaps in current knowledge where further study is particularly warranted. Among eight US studies identified that describe the annual economic burden pertaining to one or more aspects of anogenital HPV-related disease, three met the review eligibility criteria (published between 1990 and 2004, examined multiple facets of annual anogenital HPV-related economic burden, and clearly articulated the data and methods used in the estimation process). All costs were adjusted to 2004 US dollars. Estimates of the annual direct medical costs associated with cervical cancer were comparable across studies (range 300-400 million US dollars). In contrast, there was a wide range across studies for estimates of the annual direct medical costs associated with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (range 700 million US dollars-2.3 billion US dollars). Only one study reported direct medical costs for anogenital warts (200 million US dollars) and routine cervical cancer screening (2.3 billion US dollars). No studies examined direct medical costs attributable to HPV-related anal, penile, vaginal or vulvar cancers, or the work and productivity losses resulting from time spent receiving medical care, morbidity or mortality. Current economic burden estimates would suggest annual direct medical costs associated with the prevention and treatment of anogenital warts and cervical HPV-related disease of at least 4 billion US dollars. This figure would likely rise to at least 5 billion US dollars per year if direct medical costs associated with other disease entities caused by the sexual transmission of HPV were included, with further additions to the economic burden totalling in the billions of dollars if work and productivity losses were incorporated, a research priority for future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The continued growth in the economic evaluation of healthcare over the past 25 years has led to a shortage of trained health economists globally, leading to a number of universities and/or national governments developing specialised health economics programmes to train more health economists. One of the common problems with many of these training programmes is that they only educate new health economists to the Masters level, and as such they are unable to cover the many skills needed by a successful health economist. Furthermore, government and industry interests have ensured that economic evaluation is a heavily regulated environment that gives little incentive to seek further education. These two related factors (under-education and over-regulation) have lead to a situation where economic evaluation methods may adversely limit innovation of therapeutics and devices in clinical areas that perform badly when evaluated on the cost per QALY scale. The good news, however, is that the tide is turning and theoretically sound adjustments (such as risk adjustments and stated preferences) to the current paradigm are now being considered. This, of cause, is just the tip of the iceberg with other important issues such as time preference and the endogeneity of preference remaining very much under-researched areas in health. This paper concludes that many of these real-world issues, such as patient preferences, can be avoided by using artificial objective functions such as cost per QALY, but this comes at the cost of irrelevance and the misallocation of resources. If we are to meet all of the future challenges in economic evaluation in healthcare then we must focus more on advanced education and far less on the regulation of health economists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To date, decision trees and Markov models have been the most common methods used in pharmacoeconomic evaluations. Both of these techniques lack the flexibility required to appropriately represent clinical reality. In this paper an alternative, more natural, way to model clinical reality--discrete event simulation--is presented and its application is illustrated with a real world example.A discrete event simulation represents the course of disease very naturally, with few restrictions. Neither mutually exclusive branches nor states are required, nor is a fixed cycle. All relevant aspects can be incorporated explicitly and efficiently. Flexibility in handling perspectives and carrying out sensitivity analyses, including structural variations, is incorporated and the entire model can be presented very transparently. The main limitations are imposed by lack of data to fit realistic models. Discrete event simulation, though rarely employed in pharmacoeconomics today, should be strongly considered when carrying out economic evaluations, particularly those aimed at informing policy makers and at estimating the budget impact of a pharmaceutical intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a lack of emphasis on health-related QOL (HR-QOL) changes associated with acute exacerbation of chronic bronchitis (CB) or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this review is to examine the use of HR-QOL instruments to evaluate acute exacerbation of CB or COPD, so as to form recommendations for future research. A literature search of papers published between 1966 and July 2003 identified more than 300 articles that used acute exacerbation of CB or COPD as the search term. However, only 21 of these studies employed HR-QOL measures as predictors of outcome or in the assessment of the impact, evolution or treatment of acute exacerbations of COPD or CB. A variety of HR-QOL measures were used, both generic and disease specific. The disease-specific St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), devised for patients with stable CB and with a recall period of 1–12 months, was the most widely used measure, with the Chronic Respiratory disease Questionnaire (CRQ) and the Baseline and Transitional Dyspnoea Index (BDI, TDI) being the only other disease-specific measures used. Most measures, both generic and disease specific, performed adequately when used during acute exacerbation of CB or COPD and indicated poor HR-QOL during acute exacerbation, which improved on resolution of the exacerbation. Relationships were evident between HR-QOL during an acute exacerbation and various outcomes, including post-exacerbation functional status, hospital re- admission for acute exacerbation or COPD, and mortality. There is a need for studies of treatments for acute exacerbation of CB or COPD to include an appropriate HR-QOL instrument to aid in the stratification of patients so as to target the right treatment to the right patient group. While a new instrument could be developed to measure HR-QOL during acute exacerbation of CB or COPD, currently available disease-specific measures such as the CRQ and the SGRQ appear to be acceptable to patients during acute exacerbation. However, the recall period of the SGRQ symptoms component should be shortened to make it more appropriate for use during acute exacerbation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Baclofen and tizanidine are both used for the treatment of muscle spasticity of spinal origin. Their effectiveness, cost and adverse-effect profiles differ. This paper sets out to estimate the cost effectiveness of each drug, and the impact of changing from baclofen to tizanidine.Design: A simplified but realistic model of physician behaviour and patient response was developed as a decision tree and populated with data derived from the available published clinical comparative trials. We considered patients with spasticity caused by multiple sclerosis or spinal cord injury. The outcome measure used was 'cost per successfully treated day' (STD). Costs were estimated from the perspective of the UK National Health Service at 2000 values.Results: Expected cost for a cohort of 100 patients over 1 year was estimated to be pound 181 545 with baclofen and pound 211 930 with tizanidine. The estimated number of STDs was 20,192 with tizanidine and 17,289 with baclofen. The overall cost effectiveness of managing spasticity using baclofen and tizanidine was very similar ( pound 10.50 and pound 10.49 per STD respectively). The incremental cost effectiveness (ICE) of using tinzanidine as an alternative to baclofen for first-line treatment was pound 10.47 per STD. Sensitivity analysis found the model to be robust to changes in key parametersConclusion: Drug cost should not be a determining factor in making this treatment choice, as the cost effectiveness ratios are similar for both products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper was to review the research examining the epidemiology of and costs associated with sickle cell anaemia (SCA). Although there is general acceptance that Black populations are at greatest risk of the disease, estimates of disease incidence and prevalence vary greatly among different Black populations. In addition, the sickle cell haemoglobinopathy poses a health problem to many other ethnic groups, including populations native to Italy, Greece, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, and Cyprus. As penicillin prophylaxis has been shown to reduce the risk of sepsis among children with SCA, many governments have established newborn screening programmes to improve the health outcomes for patients with this disease. As a group, patients with SCA incur large numbers of hospital admissions, emergency department visits, and outpatient visits, often at substantial costs, hence, obtaining adequate health insurance is a problem for many patients. A common theme present in studies reviewed in this article is that a small proportion of patients tends to account for a majority of the total healthcare costs. As new diagnostic methods and treatment options become available, balancing costs associated with SCA and quality of healthcare will continue to present challenges to many healthcare providers and insurers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For practical reasons, in order to carry out economic evaluations of collective decisions, total costs will generally be compared with total benefits; hence, individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) or quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) have to be estimated at an aggregate level. So far, aggregation has usually been done by taking the individuals' mean WTP or the unweighted number of QALYs. Since the aggregation process is closely related to the way that income, health and/or utility of different individuals are compared and weighted, it also has significant equity implications. Thus. the explicit (or, more often, implicit) assumptions behind the aggregation process will largely affect how health and welfare are distributed is society. The aggregation problem in economic evaluation is certainly not trivial, but is seldom addressed in current practice. This paper shows the underlying assumptions of aggregate cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and cost-effectiveness analysis/cost-utility analysis (CEA/CUA), and it emphasises the particularly strong assumptions which have to be made when QALYs are interpreted as utilities in the welfare economics sense. Naturally, the appropriate method to choose depends on what is to be maximised: welfare or health. If decisions of resource allocation are to be based on economic welfare theory, then CBA should be preferred. However, if QALYs are interpreted as measures of health, rather than as utilities, then CEA/CUA would be appropriate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The resources available for healthcare are limited compared with demand, if not need, and all healthcare systems, regardless of their financing and organisation, employ mechanisms to ration or prioritise finite healthcare resources. This paper reviews alternative approaches that can be used to allocate healthcare resources. It discusses the problems encountered when allocating healthcare resources according to free market principles. It then proceeds to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of alternative resource allocation approaches that can be applied to public health systems. These include: (i) approaches based on the concept of meeting the needs of the population to maximising its capacity to benefit from interventions; (ii) economic approaches that identify the most efficient allocation of resources with the view of maximising health benefits or other measures of social welfare; (iii) approaches that seek to ration healthcare by age; and (iv) approaches that resolve resource allocation disputes through debate and bargaining. At present, there appears to be no consensus about the relative importance of the potentially conflicting principles that can be used to guide resource allocation decisions. It is concluded that whatever shape tomorrow's health service takes, the requirement to make equitable and efficient use of finite healthcare resources will remain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The introduction of expensive disease-modifying agents for the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) has created the potential for patients with MS to become higher contributors to healthcare spending. In an attempt to make formulary and reimbursement choices for these agents, decision-makers may look to the literature for guidance. This critical review attempts to decipher a consistent message from the available economic literature regarding the relationship between disease severity and cost in MS. In the 2 studies that have examined MS disease severity, a positive correlation with total (direct and indirect) cost, indirect cost and some, if not all, components of direct cost was reported. In studies taking the societal perspective, the majority of total costs were indirect. This paper documents the high burden of MS on society and serves to guide the decision-maker in interpreting the MS economic literature such that this information can be optimally utilised to make informed resource allocation decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The UK Medical Research Council approach to evaluating complex interventions moves through development, feasibility, piloting, evaluation and implementation in an iterative manner. This approach might be useful as a conceptual process underlying complex valuation tasks.Objective: The objective of the study was to explore the applicability of such a framework using a single case study (valuing the ICECAP-Supportive Care Measure) and considering three key uncertainties: the number of response categories for the measure; experimental design; and the potential for using slightly different variants of the measure with the same value set.Methods: Three on-line pilot studies (n = 204, n = 100, n = 102) were undertaken during 2012 and 2013 with adults from the UK general population. Each used variants of discrete choice and best-worst scaling tasks; respondents were randomly allocated to different groups to allow exploration of the number of levels for the instrument (four or five), optimal experimental design and the values for alternative wording around prognosis. Conditional logit regression models were used in the analysis and variance scale factors were explored.Results: The five-level version of the measure seemed to result in simplifying heuristics. Plotting the variance scale factors suggested that best-worst scaling answers were approximately four times more consistent than the discrete choice answers. The likelihood ratio test indicated there was virtually no difference in values between the differently worded versions.Conclusion: Rigorous piloting can improve the design of valuation studies. Thinking in terms of a 'complex valuation framework' may emphasise the importance of conducting and funding such rigorous pilots. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model-based economic evaluations should capture the impact on all costs and outcomes relevant to the chosen study perspective and time horizon. This editorial defines what is meant by direct treatment disutility (DTD) and describes why it could be an important harm that those designing model-based evaluations should consider. Some existing estimates of DTD identified from the current literature are summarised in terms of the methods used to elicit the values and the size of the estimated DTD. Model-based studies that include DTDs are also summarised. It was found that the values used within model-based economic evaluations (ranging from 0.00384 to 0.02) were typically smaller than the directly elicited values from the existing literature (0-0.033). Yet even with conservative estimates of DTDs, cost-effectiveness results were sensitive to their inclusion. The editorial concludes by discussing future methodological and empirical research needed to estimate more robust DTD values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This study provides the results of a cost-effectiveness analysis of levetiracetam as an adjunctive treatment for refractory epilepsy from the Canadian Ministry of Health perspective. The main objective is to estimate the expected cost-effectiveness ratio expressed as the incremental cost per seizure-free day gained when using levetiracetam. In addition, this study examines the potential savings that might result by reducing the number of surgical evaluations and surgery when using levetiracetam.Methods: A 1-year dose escalation decision-tree model comparing levetiracetam plus standard therapy with standard therapy alone was designed in order to combine probability, resource use and unit cost data (1999 Canadian dollars [$Can]). The short-term outcomes were derived from three phase III randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials performed in 904 patients, aged 16-70 years, with at least 1 year history of epilepsy, two to four partial seizures per month, and receiving a maximum of two classic antiepileptic drugs.Results: The average gain in seizure-free days attributed to levetiracetam was 19 days per patient per year and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for levetiracetam add-on in the base-case scenario was $Can80.7 per seizure-free day gained per patient per year. Moreover, when surgical investigation and surgery are considered in the model, the use of levetiracetam may be dominant, with substantial savings to the overall healthcare budget. All univariate sensitivity analyses show that the model was robust to the assumptions made.Conclusions: The economic analysis presented in this paper suggests, given a wide range of assumptions, that the increased cost of treating patients (with refractory epilepsy) with levetiracetam may be partially offset by a reduction in other direct medical costs (from the Canadian Ministry of Health perspective), as a consequence of an increase in the number of seizure-free days. Moreover, potential cost savings may be foreseen when it is assumed that levetiracetam may reduce the number of candidates for surgical evaluation and surgery through a reduction of seizure frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In schizophrenia, modelling techniques may be needed to estimate the long-term costs and effects of new interventions. However, it seems that a simple direct link between symptoms and costs does not exist. Decisions about whether a patient will be hospitalized or admitted to a different healthcare setting are based not only on symptoms but also on social and environmental factors. This paper describes the development of a model to assess the dependencies between a broad range of parameters in the treatment of schizophrenia. In particular, the model attempts to incorporate social and environmental factors into the decision-making process for the prescription of new drugs to patients. The model was used to analyse the potential benefits of improving compliance with medication by 20% in patients in the UK. A discrete event simulation (DES) model was developed, to describe a cohort of schizophrenia patients with multiple psychotic episodes. The model takes into account the patient's sex, disease severity, potential risk of harm to self and society, and social and environmental factors. Other variables that change over time include the number of psychiatric consultations, the presence of psychotic episodes, symptoms, treatments, compliance, side-effects, the lack of ability to take care of him/herself, care setting and risk of harm. Outcomes are costs, psychotic episodes and symptoms. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed. Direct medical costs were considered (year of costing 2002), applying a 6.0% discount rate for costs and a 1.5% discount rate for outcome. The timeframe of the model is 5 years. When 50% of the decisions about the patient care setting are based on symptoms, a 20% increase in compliance was estimated to save 16,147 pounds and to avoid 0.55 psychotic episodes per patient over 5 years. Sensitivity analysis showed that the costs savings associated with increased compliance are robust over a range of variations in parameters. DES offers a flexible structure for modelling a disease, taking into account how a patient's history affects the course of the disease over time. This approach is particularly pertinent to schizophrenia, in which treatment decisions are complex. The model shows that better compliance increases the time between relapses, decreases the symptom score, and reduces the requirement for treatment in an intensive patient care setting, leading to cost savings. The extent of the cost savings depends on the relative importance of symptoms and of social and environmental factors in these decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome is a rare disease caused by complement dysregulation that can lead to progressive kidney damage or death if untreated. Owing to its rarity, the impact of atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome and available therapies (eculizumab and ravulizumab) on patients' health-related quality of life is difficult to describe, but such data are required for an economic evaluation.Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate utility values for atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome-related attributes in five countries for an economic evaluation.Methods: Using discrete choice experiment surveys, key atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome-related attributes (life expectancy, administration frequency, risk of meningitis, need for hospitalization, and risk of kidney impairment) were evaluated in adult general population samples from Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK. Survey choice sets were constructed using a published orthogonal array. A mixed-effects logit model estimated preference strength for each attribute. Utilities were estimated using marginal substitution rates between overall survival and other attributes, weighted against average life expectancy.Results: Across all countries (N = 2382), utility weights revealed a consistent pattern: participants were averse to the risk of kidney impairment (disutility/utility weight range: -0.185 to -0.158), risk of meningitis (-0.041 to -0.032), and the need for hospitalization (-0.063 to -0.048), but preferred 8-weekly vs 2-weekly infusions over 1 h (0.013-0.039).Conclusions: Although all attributes played a role in determining treatment preferences, the largest drivers were life expectancy and risk of kidney impairment. Participants favored 8-weekly dosing (corresponding to ravulizumab administration frequency) vs 2-weekly dosing. The discrete choice experiment was designed such that estimated (dis)utility weights can be used in future cost-effectiveness models in atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because depressive symptoms are a part of health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) measures, measures of depression will be empirically associated with HRQOL. We discuss examples of published research where authors ignored or did not fully account for overlap between depressive symptom and HRQOL measures. Future researchers need to recognize when their models include conceptually similar variables on the same side or both sides of the equation. This awareness will lead to more accurate conclusions about the prognostic value of depression and other HRQOL measures for health care utilization, mortality, and other outcomes. It will also result in fewer incorrect claims about the effect of depression on HRQOL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cross-national price comparisons for pharmaceuticals are commonly used for two purposes. Comparisons based on a sample of products are used to draw conclusions about differences in average price levels. Cross-national comparisons applied to individual products are also used by governments to set domestic prices. This paper examines the major methodological issues raised by international price comparisons, focusing on measurement of differences in average price levels and the validity of policy conclusions drawn from such price comparison studies. It argues that valid measures of average price levels can only be obtained from comparisons based on a comprehensive or representative sample of products, appropriately weighted, following standard index number methods. Comparisons of individual product prices should take into account the manufacturer's entire product portfolio over time rather than focus narrowly on a single product at a point in time. Because of the great variation across countries in both the range of drug compounds available and the dosage forms, strengths and pack sizes for each compound, obtaining a broadly comprehensive or representative sample is problematical. If products are required to match on all dimensions, including molecule, manufacturer, strength and pack, as is common in most international price comparisons, then only a very small and unrepresentative sample of the drugs available in each country can be included in the analysis. A trade-off between the desire to compare only identical products and the need to compare a truly representative sample of a country's pharmaceutical market is therefore necessary. A valid comparison of average drug prices should include generics and over-the-counter products that are good substitutes for branded prescription drugs, with all forms, strengths and packs. To achieve this broad representation, however, the requirements of same manufacturer, same brand, dosage form, strength and pack size must be dropped. When such an approach is taken to the comparison of international drug prices, quite different results from those obtained from less comprehensive comparisons may be obtained. Indeed, a major conclusion of this analysis is that international drug price comparisons are extremely sensitive to choices made about certain key methodological issues, such as sample selection, unit of measurement for price and volume, the relative weight given to consumption patterns in the countries being compared, and the use of exchange rates or purchasing power parities for currency conversion. In particular, the results of this analysis indicate that recent reports suggesting that manufacturer prices in the US are 32% higher than in Canada and 60% higher than in the UK are in fact overstatements which arise from limitations of the sample and methods used to calculate these price differentials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses various reports within the issue on topics related to comparative effectiveness research (CER) including the critical role played by CER in health reform in the U.S.

Background: Inclusion of productivity losses and gains in cost-effectiveness analyses for drugs is recommended by pharmacoeconomic guidelines in some countries and is considered optional in others. Often guidelines recommend analysis based on the payer perspective, but suggest that a supplemental analysis based on the societal perspective may be submitted that includes productivity losses/gains. However, there is no universally recognized framework for the approach to including productivity losses and gains in pharmacoeconomic analyses.Objectives: This study aimed to systematically review literature on cost-effectiveness analyses of drug interventions that included costs associated with productivity losses/gains and to summarize the types cost elements included and cost calculation methods employed. Moreover, this study examines variations in the calculation of productivity losses/gains by target disease type, geographic region, income group, period of analysis, and analysis time horizon-as well as the impact of their inclusion on the study outcomes.Methods: A search of three databases was performed, including MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library, to identify cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses that included indirect costs such as productivity losses/gains. Publications from January 2010 to October 2019 were examined and selected for inclusion by two independent reviewers. In addition to the citation details, data on the country of analysis, country income group, target disease area, study sponsorship, type of analysis, study design, time horizon, analysis perspective, productivity loss/gain elements included, the approach used to estimate productivity losses/gains, and the impact of their inclusion on the study outcome-namely the incremental cost effectiveness ratio-were extracted and summarized.Results: The search strategy identified 5038 unique studies, and 208 were included in the final analysis. Among the studies reviewed, 165 (79%) were conducted in high-income countries and 160 (77%) were conducted for North American and European/Central Asian countries. The productivity loss/gain elements included in the analysis were reported for 169 studies (81%). Absenteeism only was included for 98 studies (47%), and absenteeism plus presenteeism was included for 29 studies (14%). Absenteeism plus some other element such as costs associated with unemployment and/or early retirement was included for 32 studies (15%) examined. Only one out of four of the studies reviewed included information on the approach used to estimate productivity losses/gains, which was predominantly the human capital approach. One-hundred forty-four studies (69%) reported the impact of including productivity losses/gains on the ICER, with 110 studies (53%) reporting that their inclusion contributed to more favorable cost-effectiveness.Conclusions: Although inclusion of productivity losses/gains was shown to have a favorable impact on evaluations for many studies, their impact and method of calculation was often not reported or was unclear. Further examination and discussion is needed to consider the optimal framework for considering productivity losses/gains in cost-effectiveness analyses, including the appropriate cost elements to include (e.g., patient absenteeism, caregiver absenteeism, presenteeism, unemployment, etc.) and how those costs should be estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: New Zealand's near static healthcare budget limits access to expensive medications including those for rare conditions. As such, it is necessary to know the public's priority for values in the drug funding decision-making process.Objectives: The objectives of this study were to measure the relative societal importance of values of New Zealanders in informing drug funding decisions and to determine how New Zealanders trade off funding in various scenarios between common and rare diseases.Methods: An online survey was conducted between 17 April and 17 May, 2019 on a sample of 500 New Zealanders aged ≥ 18 years. Participants ranked 13 values using an analytical hierarchy process. Participants were then presented with different trade-off scenarios to measure their attitudes towards funding drugs for common and rare diseases.Results: The values ranked in the top five by most were potential effect on quality of life (71.8%), ability of the drug to work (57.6%), severity (57.6%), safety (57%), and potential to extend life (56%). Adherence and rarity held the lowest and second lowest ranking. Most believe that resources should be allocated towards drugs that have been proven to work and have the greatest health benefits. In trade-offs between access to an expensive drug therapy for a rare disease with uncertain benefits or receive a fixed cash payment, the overwhelming consensus was to receive the cash payment.Conclusions: New Zealanders ultimately value drug-related factors (e.g. quality of life and efficacy) and disease-related factors (e.g. severity of disease and equity) the most but did not value disease rarity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Health economics models are typically built in Microsoft Excel® owing to its wide familiarity, accessibility and perceived transparency. However, given the increasingly rapid and analytically complex decision-making needs of both the pharmaceutical industry and the field of health economics and outcomes research (HEOR), the demands of cost-effectiveness analyses may be better met by the programming language R.Objective: This case study provides an explicit comparison between Excel and R for contemporary cost-effectiveness analysis.Methods: We constructed duplicate cost-effectiveness models using Excel and R (with a user interface built using the Shiny package) to address a hypothetical case study typical of contemporary health technology assessment.Results: We compared R and Excel versions of the same model design to determine the advantages and limitations of the modelling platforms in terms of (i) analytical capability, (ii) data safety, (iii) building considerations, (iv) usability for technical and non-technical users and (v) model adaptability.Conclusions: The findings of this explicit comparison are used to produce recommendations for when R might be more suitable than Excel in contemporary cost-effectiveness analyses. We conclude that selection of appropriate modelling software needs to consider case-by-case modelling requirements, particularly (i) intended audience, (ii) complexity of analysis, (iii) nature and frequency of updates and (iv) anticipated model run time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EQ-5D-Y-3L is a generic, health-related, quality-of-life instrument for use in younger populations. Some methodological studies have explored the valuation of children's EQ-5D-Y-3L health states. There are currently no published value sets available for the EQ-5D-Y-3L that are appropriate for use in a cost-utility analysis. The aim of this article was to describe the development of the valuation protocol for the EQ-5D-Y-3L instrument. There were several research questions that needed to be answered to develop a valuation protocol for EQ-5D-Y-3L health states. Most important of these were: (1) Do we need to obtain separate values for the EQ-5D-Y-3L, or can we use the ones from the EQ-5D-3L? (2) Whose values should we elicit: children or adults? (3) Which valuation methods should be used to obtain values for child's health states that are anchored in Full health = 1 and Dead = 0? The EuroQol Research Foundation has pursued a research programme to provide insight into these questions. In this article, we summarized the results of the research programme concluding with the description of the features of the EQ-5D-Y-3L valuation protocol. The tasks included in the protocol for valuing EQ-5D-Y-3L health states are discrete choice experiments for obtaining the relative importance of dimensions/levels and composite time-trade-off for anchoring the discrete choice experiment values on 1 = Full Health and 0 = Dead. This protocol is now available for use by research teams to generate EQ-5D-Y-3L value sets for their countries allowing the implementation of a cost-utility analysis for younger populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The measurement and valuation of health-related quality of life for and by young people are increasingly important, yet research on the impact of study perspective and validity of preferences obtained from young populations remains limited.Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and validity of collecting EQ-5D Youth version (EQ-5D-Y) preferences from adolescents, adults, and adults from a child perspective.Methods: A profile case best-worst scaling (BWS) online survey was administered to representative Australian and Spanish adult (age ≥ 18 years) and child (age 11-17 years) samples. Adults were told to either answer from their own perspective or for a hypothetical 10-year-old child. Marginal best- and worst-choice frequencies, analysis of dominant choices, self-reported difficulty completing the tasks, and time to complete tasks were used to determine the validity of responses.Results: In Australia, 2134 adults and 1010 adolescents completed the survey. In Spain, 2007 adults and 1000 adolescents completed it. Analysis of marginal choice frequencies and dominant choices indicated that the pattern of responses between adolescents and adults was similar. For Australian respondents, having no mobility problems was rated as best by adolescents, while adults rated having no pain and discomfort as 'best'. In Spain, both adults and adolescents rated no pain or discomfort as 'best'. Australian adolescents rated very worried, sad or unhappy as 'worst', while Spanish adolescents, Spanish adults and Australian adults rated a lot of pain and discomfort as 'worst'.Conclusions: Results suggest preferences from adolescents using direct BWS are valid. Our descriptive analysis also suggest that there are age-related and country-specific differences in elicitation values for the EQ-5D-Y. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Atypical haemolytic uraemic syndrome (aHUS) is a rare, potentially life-threatening condition caused by dysregulation of the complement pathway. Eculizumab is currently the only approved treatment for this disorder.Objective: Our objective was to investigate the impact of early administration of eculizumab on inpatient resource use and hospitalisation costs in 222 patients with aHUS.Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Premier Perspective® Hospital Database, including patients with a diagnosis of aHUS and evidence of eculizumab use for aHUS. Early initiation was defined as having received eculizumab within 7 days of admission, with late initiation defined as starting eculizumab on day 8 or later. This date represents the average time required to obtain a specific diagnostic test to discriminate aHUS from a similar haemolytic syndrome that requires a different treatment. Outcome measures were time from first eculizumab initiation to discharge, discharge status or death, days spent in the intensive care unit (ICU), readmission indicators, dialysis indicators, and total hospital costs. Time from first eculizumab initiation to discharge was analysed using a generalised linear model with a log link and an assumed underlying negative binomial distribution. Logistic regression models were used to test the statistical significance of early versus late initiation as a predictor of the occurrence of readmissions, dialysis, and death. Total hospital costs were analysed using a generalised linear model with a log link and an assumed underlying gamma distribution.Results: Before modelling, total length of stay and ICU duration were significantly longer for late initiators than for early initiators, and significantly more late initiators were readmitted within 90 days. Late initiation was associated with significantly higher hospital costs than early initiation. After multivariable analysis, late initiators were 3.2 times more likely to require dialysis. However, there was no significant association between early initiation and time to discharge, readmission, or death for any definition or early initiation after multivariable analysis. Estimated total hospital costs (year 2017 values) were $US103,557 in late initiators and $US85,776 in early initiators (p = 0.0024).Conclusion: Initiation of eculizumab within 7 days of hospitalisation is associated with lower dialysis rates, less time in ICU, less plasmapheresis, and lower hospitalisation costs compared with late initiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision makers increasingly require cost-effectiveness evidence to inform resource allocation and the need for systematic reviews of economic evaluations (SREEs) has grown accordingly. The objective of this article is to describe current practice and identify unique challenges in conducting and reporting SREEs. Current guideline documents for SREEs were consulted and summarised. A rapid review of English-language SREEs, using MEDLINE and EMBASE, published in 2017/2018, containing at least 20 studies was undertaken to describe current practice. Information on data extraction methods, quality assessment (QA) tools and reporting methods were narratively summarised. Lessons learned from a recently conducted SREE of weight loss interventions for severely obese adults were discussed. Sixty-three publications were included in the rapid review. Substantial heterogeneity in review methods, reporting standards and QA approaches was evident. Our recently conducted SREE on weight loss interventions identified scope to improve process efficiency, opportunity for more transparent and succinct reporting, and potential to improve consistency of QA. Practical solutions may include (1) using pre-piloted data extraction forms linked explicitly to results tables; (2) consistently reporting on key assumptions and sensitivity analyses that drive results; and (3) using checklists that include topic-specific items where relevant and allow reviewers to distinguish between reporting, justification and QA. The lack of a mutually agreed, standardised set of best practice guidelines has led to substantial heterogeneity in the conduct and reporting of SREEs. Future work is required to standardise the approach to conducting SREEs so that they can generate efficient, timely and relevant evidence to support decision-making. We suggest only data extracting information that will be reported, focusing discussion around the key drivers of cost-effectiveness, and improving consistency in QA by distinguishing between what is reported, justified by authors and deemed appropriate by the reviewer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Clinical trials often report intervention efficacy in terms of the reduction in all-cause mortality between the treatment and control arms (i.e., an overall hazard ratio [oHR]) instead of the reduction in disease-specific mortality (i.e., a disease-specific hazard ratio [dsHR]). Using oHR to reduce all-cause mortality beyond the time horizon of the trial may introduce bias if the relative proportion of other-cause mortality increases with age. We sought to quantify this oHR extrapolation bias and propose a new approach to overcome this bias.Methods: We simulated a hypothetical cohort of patients with a generic disease that increased background mortality by a constant additive disease-specific rate. We quantified the bias in terms of the percentage change in life expectancy gains with the intervention under an oHR compared with a dsHR approach as a function of the cohort start age, the disease-specific mortality rate, dsHR, and the duration of the intervention's effect. We then quantified the bias in a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators based on efficacy estimates from a clinical trial.Results: For a cohort of 50-year-old patients with a disease-specific mortality of 0.05, a dsHR of 0.5, a calculated oHR of 0.55, and a lifetime duration of effect, the bias was 28%. We varied these key parameters over wide ranges and the resulting bias ranged between 3 and 140%. In the CEA, the use of oHR as the intervention's effectiveness overestimated quality-adjusted life expectancy by 9% and costs by 3%, biasing the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio by - 6%.Conclusions: The use of an oHR approach to model the intervention's effectiveness beyond the time horizon of the trial overestimates its benefits. In CEAs, this bias could decrease the cost of a QALY, overestimating interventions' cost effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: An increasing number of technologies are obtaining marketing authorisation based on sparse evidence, which causes growing uncertainty and risk within health technology reimbursement decision making. To ensure that uncertainty is considered and addressed within health technology assessment (HTA) recommendations, uncertainties need to be identified, included in health economic models, and reported.Objective: Our objective was to develop the TRansparent Uncertainty ASsessmenT (TRUST) tool for systematically identifying, assessing, and reporting uncertainties in decision models, with the aim of making uncertainties and their impact on cost effectiveness more explicit and transparent.Methods: TRUST was developed by drawing on the uncertainty and risk assessment literature. To develop and validate this tool, we conducted HTA stakeholder discussion meetings and interviews and applied it in six real-world HTA case studies in the Netherlands and the UK.Results: The TRUST tool enables the identification and categorisation of uncertainty according to its source (transparency issues, methodology issues, and issues with evidence: imprecision, bias and indirectness, and unavailability) in each model aspect. The source of uncertainty determines the appropriate analysis. The impact of uncertainties on cost effectiveness is also assessed. Stakeholders found using the tool to be feasible and of value for transparent uncertainty assessment. TRUST can be used during model development and/or model review.Conclusion: The TRUST tool enables systematic identification, assessment, and reporting of uncertainties in health economic models and may contribute to more informed and transparent decision making in the face of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objective: The extrapolation of estimated hazard functions can be an important part of cost-effectiveness analyses. Given limited follow-up time in the sample data, it may be expected that the uncertainty in estimates of hazards increases the further into the future they are extrapolated. The objective of this study was to illustrate how the choice of parametric survival model impacts on estimates of uncertainty about extrapolated hazard functions and lifetime mean survival.Methods: We examined seven commonly used parametric survival models and described analytical expressions and approximation methods (delta and multivariate normal) for estimating uncertainty. We illustrate the multivariate normal method using case studies based on four representative hypothetical datasets reflecting hazard functions commonly encountered in clinical practice (constant, increasing, decreasing, or unimodal), along with a hypothetical cost-effectiveness analysis.Results: Depending on the survival model chosen, the uncertainty in extrapolated hazard functions could be constant, increasing or decreasing over time for the case studies. Estimates of uncertainty in mean survival showed a large variation (up to sevenfold) for each case study. The magnitude of uncertainty in estimates of cost effectiveness, as measured using the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained, varied threefold across plausible models. Differences in estimates of uncertainty were observed even when models provided near-identical point estimates.Conclusions: Survival model choice can have a significant impact on estimates of uncertainty of extrapolated hazard functions, mean survival and cost effectiveness, even when point estimates were similar. We provide good practice recommendations for analysts and decision makers, emphasizing the importance of considering the plausibility of estimates of uncertainty in the extrapolated period as a complementary part of the model selection process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]