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Herbivory can influence ecosystem productivity, but recent evidence suggests that damage by herbivores modulates potential productivity specific to damage type. Because productivity is linked to photosynthesis at the leaf level, which in turn is influenced by atmospheric CO concentrations, we investigated how different herbivore damage types alter component processes of photosynthesis under ambient and elevated atmospheric CO. We examined spatial patterns in chlorophyll fluorescence and the temperature of leaves damaged by leaf-chewing, gall-forming, and leaf-folding insects in aspen trees as well as by leaf-chewing insects in birch trees under ambient and elevated CO at the aspen free-air CO enrichment (FACE) site in Wisconsin. Both defoliation and gall damage suppressed the operating efficiency of photosystem II (ΦPSII) in remaining leaf tissue, and the distance that damage propagated into visibly undamaged tissue was marginally attenuated under elevated CO. Elevated CO increased leaf temperatures, which reduced the cooling effect of gall formation and freshly chewed leaf tissue. These results provide mechanistic insight into how different damage types influence the remaining, visibly undamaged leaf tissue, and suggest that elevated CO may reduce the effects of herbivory on the primary photochemistry controlling photosynthesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographic patterns of intraspecific variations in traits related to photosynthesis and biomass were examined in two separate common garden experiments using seed collected from 26 Sitka alder (Alnus sinuata Rydb.) and 18 paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.) populations from climatically diverse locations in British Columbia, Canada. Exchange rates of carbon dioxide and water vapour were measured on 2-year-old seedlings to determine the maximum net instantaneous photosynthetic rate, mesophyll conductance, stomatal conductance, and photosynthetic water use efficiency. Height, stem diameter, root and shoot dry mass and fall frost hardiness data were also obtained. Mean population maximum photosynthetic rate ranged from 10.35 to 14.57 µmol CO2 m–2 s–1 in Sitka alder and from 14.76 to 17.55 µmol CO2 m–2 s–1 in paper birch. Based on canonical correlation analyses, populations from locations with colder winters and shorter (but not necessarily cooler) summers had higher maximum photosynthetic rates implying the existence of an inverse relationship between leaf longevity and photosynthetic capacity. Significant canonical variates based on climatic variables derived for the seed collection sites explained 58% and 41% of variation in the rate of photosynthesis in Sitka alder and paper birch, respectively. Since growing season length is reflected in date of frost hardiness development, an intrinsic relationship was found between photosynthetic capacity and the level of fall frost hardiness. The correlation was particularly strong for paper birch (r=–0.77) and less strong for Sitka alder (r=–0.60). Mean population biomass accumulation decreased with increased climate coldness. These patterns may be consequential for evaluation of the impact of climate change and extension of the growing season on plant communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to promote migration of species. In ecotones, areas of ecological tension, disturbances may provide opportunities for some migrating species to establish in otherwise competitive environments. The size of and time since disturbance may determine the establishment ability of these species. We investigated gap dynamics of an old-growth red pine ( Pinus resinosa Sol. ex Aiton) forest in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence forest in northern Ontario, Canada, a transition zone between temperate and boreal forest. We investigated the effects of gaps of different sizes and ages on tree species abundance and basal area. Our results show that tree species from the temperate forest further south, such as red maple ( Acer rubrum L.), red oak ( Quercus rubra L.), and white pine ( Pinus strobus L.), establish more often in large, old gaps; however, tree species that have more northern distributions, such as black spruce ( Picea mariana Mill.), paper birch ( Betula papyrifera Marsh.), and red pine show no difference in establishment ability with gap size or age. These differences in composition could not be attributed to autogenic succession. We conclude that treefall gaps in this forest facilitate the establishment of northward migrating species, potentially providing a pathway for future forest migration in response to recent changes in climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food supplementation experiments have provided considerable information about the importance of resource availability in timing reproduction. Supplemented birds usually advance breeding over non-supplemented controls. Initial observations suggested that degree of advancement in studies conducted at higher latitudes was less than in those at lower latitudes. We hypothesized that birds at high latitudes are less responsive to the “supplementary” cue of food. We tested this hypothesis using a literature-based meta-analysis of 36 papers which, because several papers presented separate data sets from different years, yielded 56 “studies.” We used step-wise regression to determine whether latitude, elevation, the duration of supplementation, and the migratory status of the species predicted the degree to which mean clutch initiation dates of food supplemented birds differed from non-supplemented controls (i.e., effect size = $$\overline {\text{X}} _{{{\text{cnt}}}} - \overline {\text{X}} _{{{\text{suppl}}}}$$ ). Consistent with our predictions, there was a significant inverse relationship between effect size and latitude: elevation, migratory status, and duration of treatment contributed little to the model. Because the response of animals’ reproductive systems to environmental information is mediated by the neuroendocrine system, we discuss two models: (1) the adaptive specialization hypothesis in which higher latitude species that experience a relatively short breeding season have evolved a reliance on photic cues while exhibiting reduced sensitivity to non-photic cues; and (2) the conditional plasticity hypothesis in which an individual might show a marked response to non-photic information if it lived at low latitudes, but be largely driven by photic cues, endogenous rhythms, or both to the relative exclusion of non-photic information if it lived at higher latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is commonly assumed that iteroparous fish, once mature, normally reproduce in all consecutive seasons. Recent work has suggested, however, that in Norwegian spring-spawning herring—a population that undertakes extensive spawning migrations—almost one in two adults may skip their second spawning migration. Why should herring not return to spawn the year after first spawning, but instead wait an extra year? For herring, participation in distant, energetically costly, and risky spawning migrations will only pay off in terms of fitness if individuals are sufficiently large, and in sufficient condition, to both successfully migrate and spawn. Changes in the environment and individual condition should therefore affect the likelihood of skipped spawning. This paper describes long-term changes in the extent to which the second reproductive season is skipped in this herring population. These are shown to be linked to the size and condition of herring as first-time spawners, and to climatic factors possibly related to food availability. The findings corroborate the hypothesis that skipped reproduction results from trade-offs between current and future reproduction, growth and survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Isolated populations or those at the edge of their distribution are usually more sensitive to changes in the environment, such as climate change. For the barnacleSemibalanus balanoides(L.), one possible effect of climate change is that unpredictable spring weather could lead to the mismatching of larval release with spring phytoplankton bloom, hence reducing the recruitment. In this paper, model simulations of a variable open population with space limited recruitment were used to investigate the effects of low and zero recruitment on population abundance inS. balanoides. Data for model parameters was taken from an isolated population in the Isle of Man, British Isles. Model simulations with observed frequencies of years with low recruitment showed only small changes in population dynamics. Increased frequencies of low recruitment had large effects on the variation in population growth rate and free space and on population structure. Furthermore, populations with intermediate to high frequencies of low recruitment appeared more sensitive to additional changes in recruitment. Exchanging low recruitment with zero recruitment severely increased the risk of local extinctions. Simulations with consecutive years of low recruitment showed a substantial increase in free space and an increase in the time taken to recover to normal densities. In conclusion, model simulations indicate that variable populations can be well buffered to changes in the demography caused by introduced environmental noise, but also, that intermediate to high frequencies of disturbance can lead to a swift change in population dynamics, which in turn, may affect the dynamics of whole communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined the linkage between climate and interspecific plant interactions in New England salt marshes. Because harsh edaphic conditions in marshes can be ameliorated by neighboring plants, plant neighbors can have net competitive or facilitative interactions, depending on ambient physical stresses. In particular, high soil salinities, which are largely controlled by solar radiation and the evaporation of marsh porewater, can be ameliorated by plant neighbors under stressful conditions leading to facilitative interactions. Under less stressful edaphic conditions, these same neighbors may be competitors. In this paper, we use this mechanistic understanding of marsh plant interactions to examine the hypothesis that latitudinal and inter-annual variation in climate can influence the nature and strength of marsh plant species interactions. We quantified the relationship between climate and species interactions by transplanting marsh plants into ambient vegetation and unvegetated bare patches at sites north and south of Cape Cod, a major biogeographic barrier on the east coast of North America. We hypothesized that the cooler climate north of Cape Cod would lead to fewer positive interactions among marsh plants. We found both latitudinal and inter-annual variation in the neighbor relations of marsh plants that paralleled latitudinal differences in temperature and salinity. South of Cape Cod, plant neighbor interactions tended to be more facilitative, whereas north of Cape Cod, plant neighbor interactions were more competitive. At all sites, soil salinity increased and plant neighbor interactions were more facilitative in warmer versus cooler years. Our results show that interspecific interactions can be strikingly linked to climate, but also reveal that because the sensitivity of specific species interactions to climatic variation is highly variable, predicting how entire communities will respond to climate change will be difficult, even in relatively simple, well-studied systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions is predicted to raise the mean global temperature by 1.0–3.5°C in the next 50–100 years. The direct and indirect effects of this potential increase in temperature on terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem processes are likely to be complex and highly varied in time and space. The Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme has recently launched a Network of Ecosystem Warming Studies, the goals of which are to integrate and foster research on ecosystem-level effects of rising temperature. In this paper, we use meta-analysis to synthesize data on the response of soil respiration, net N mineralization, and aboveground plant productivity to experimental ecosystem warming at 32 research sites representing four broadly defined biomes, including high (latitude or altitude) tundra, low tundra, grassland, and forest. Warming methods included electrical heat-resistance ground cables, greenhouses, vented and unvented field chambers, overhead infrared lamps, and passive night-time warming. Although results from individual sites showed considerable variation in response to warming, results from the meta-analysis showed that, across all sites and years, 2–9 years of experimental warming in the range 0.3–6.0°C significantly increased soil respiration rates by 20% (with a 95% confidence interval of 18–22%), net N mineralization rates by 46% (with a 95% confidence interval of 30–64%), and plant productivity by 19% (with a 95% confidence interval of 15–23%). The response of soil respiration to warming was generally larger in forested ecosystems compared to low tundra and grassland ecosystems, and the response of plant productivity was generally larger in low tundra ecosystems than in forest and grassland ecosystems. With the exception of aboveground plant productivity, which showed a greater positive response to warming in colder ecosystems, the magnitude of the response of these three processes to experimental warming was not generally significantly related to the geographic, climatic, or environmental variables evaluated in this analysis. This underscores the need to understand the relative importance of specific factors (such as temperature, moisture, site quality, vegetation type, successional status, land-use history, etc.) at different spatial and temporal scales, and suggests that we should be cautious in "scaling up" responses from the plot and site level to the landscape and biome level. Overall, ecosystem-warming experiments are shown to provide valuable insights on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the biological consequences of climate change by integrating the results of a tripartite investigation involving fumarole, field manipulation and laboratory incubation experiments. The geographical region for this research is the maritime Antarctic. Under contemporary climate conditions, the lithosols in this region support only a sparse cryptogamic flora of limited taxonomic diversity and low structural complexity. However, the existence in geothermal areas of temperate species (e.g. Campylopus introflexus, Marchantia polymorpha, Philonotis acicularis) growing outside their normal biogeographical range suggests that elevated temperature and humidity may alter the trajectory of community development towards Magellanic or Patagonian composition. Productivity is also likely to increase, as indicated by significantly greater vegetative biomass recorded beneath climate-ameliorating soil covers than in controls. Barren fellfield soil samples transplanted to the laboratory and incubated at temperatures of 2-25°C show rapid development of moss, algae and lichen propagules in the range 15-25°C. A variety of species develop that have not been recorded in the field. The presence of exotic taxa indicates the existence of a dormant propagule bank in maritime Antarctic soils and suggests that no significant delay is likely to occur between the onset of climate warming and community development: instead, rapid establishment of those species favoured by the new climate conditions will yield a distinct founder effect, with increasing above- and below-ground biomass stimulating biogeochemical cycling. It is argued that the combined results of this synthesis identify generic responses to climate change arising from the importance at high latitudes of low temperature and water availability as limiting factors: subject to other growth resources being non-limiting, a more consistent stimulatory response to climate change may be expected than in temperate or tropical regions. The tripartite approach, encompassing field, microcosm and laboratory methodologies, renders the conclusions more robust than any single study considered in isolation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The larch bud-moth cycle has been observed in the sub-alpine larch-cembran pine forests 16 times since 1850. Infestation is easily recognized by the characteristic red-brown discoloration of the larch crowns due to the wasteful feeding of the bud moth larvae. The heaviest defoliation recurs at intervals of 8.47±0.27 (SE) years, and the larval density per kilogram of larch branches varies more than 10000-fold over four or five generations. The basic regulatory mechanism for this cycle is the induced change in food quality for the two or more subsequent larval generations. Defoliation functions as a negative feedback mechanism acting on larval density. In 1989 local discoloration in the Upper Engadine valley was observed in the usual first focus. In 1990 and 1991, however, instead of the expected widespread defoliation damage, larval densities decreased drastically. Based on extensive field data collected from 1961 to 1991 on the development and the survival of the bud moth ( Zeiraphera diniana Gn.) and the phenology of the host, Larix decidua L., this paper shows the effect of weather on survival in the egg stage and on the coincidence of larval hatching with the sprouting of the larch. It is shown that the winter and spring weather conditions in 1989-1991 were conducive to unusually high egg mortality. Since these conditions occurred in three successive generations, population growth was effectively reduced and the cycle collapsed prematurely. Thus the rather persistent cyclicity of the larch-larch bud-moth system was disturbed by weather conditions with a very low probability of occurrence, but due to the inherent high resilience of the system, the next population peak with visible defoliation is expected to occur 1996/1997, provided that the weather conditions return to the climatic standard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we review some critical issues regarding carbon cycling in Amazonia, as revealed by several studies conducted in the Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA). We evaluate both the contribution of this magnificent biome for the global net primary productivity/net ecosystem exchange (NPP/NEE) and the feedbacks of climate change on the dynamics of Amazonia. In order to place Amazonia in a global perspective and make the carbon flux obtained through the LBA project comparable with global carbon budgets, we extrapolated NPP/NEE values found by LBA studies to the entire area of the Brazilian Amazon covered by rainforest. The carbon emissions due to land use changes for the tropical regions of the world produced values from 0.96 to 2.4 Pg C year−1, while atmospheric CO2 inversion models have recently indicated that tropical lands in the Americas could be exchanging a net 0.62±1.15 Pg C year−1 with the atmosphere. The difference calculated from these two methods would imply a local sink of approximately 1.6–1.7 Pg C year−1, or a source of 0.85 ton C ha−1 year−1. Using our crude extrapolation of LBA values for the Amazon forests (5 million km2) we estimate a range for the C flux in the region of −3.0 to 0.75 Pg C year−1. The exercise here does not account for environmental variability across the region, but it is an important driver for present and future studies linking local process (i.e. nutrient availability, photosynthetic capacity, and so forth) to global and regional dynamic approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One hypothesis for amphibian declines is that increased dryness attributed to global climate change exposes amphibians to greater biotic threat and, consequently, greater mortality. But, little is known about behavioral responses of terrestrial amphibians to dry conditions alone or in combination with biotic threats. We used field observations and laboratory experiments to test the response of efts (terrestrial juveniles) of the eastern red-spotted newt, Notophthalmus viridescens, to separate and combined desiccation and predation risks. When only at risk of desiccation, efts moved into shade, traveled down slope, decreased activity, and adopted water-conserving postures. Efts also significantly reduced the rate of water loss by huddling and were attracted to chemical cues from conspecific efts but not from conspecific adults. Thus, efts have a variety of behaviors that reduce the risk of dehydration associated with climate change. When faced only with a predation risk, represented by adult and eft newt tissue extracts (alarm chemicals), efts reduced their activity and avoided alarm cues from both sources. When exposed to combined desiccation and predation risks, efts were less active than when exposed to either risk separately and avoided adult tissue extracts, but not eft extracts. These results suggest that under dry conditions, conspecific tissue extracts contain both attractive (huddling) and repulsive (predator-related) chemical components that induce offsetting behavioral responses. This is the first study to demonstrate moisture-dependent responses to conspecific rinses and alarm substances, underscoring the importance of considering environmental moisture and animal hydration in studies examining responses to conspecific odors and/or alarm chemicals. These results support the hypothesis that elevated dehydration risk may compromise anti-predator behavior and exacerbate amphibian population declines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies published over the last years suggest that the ability of many species to cope with global change will be closely related to the current amount of plasticity for fitness-related traits. Thus, disentangling general patterns in phenotypic flexibility, which could be then included in models aimed to predict changes in species distribution, represent a central goal in the current ecological agenda. The climatic variability hypothesis (CVH) could be considered a timely and promising hypothesis since it provides an explicit link between climatic and geographic variables and phenotypic plasticity. Specifically, the CVH states that as the range of climatic fluctuation experienced by terrestrial animals increases with latitude, individuals at higher latitudes should present greater levels of phenotypic flexibility. Within this framework, here we evaluate the existence of latitudinal patterns in fat body size flexibility-estimated as the difference between maximum and minimum fat body size values observed throughout a year-for 59 lizard species, comprising the first evaluation of the CVH for a trait, other than thermic or metabolic characters, in ectothermic species. Conventional and phylogenetic analyses indicated a positive relationship between fat body size flexibility and latitude, and also between flexibility and temperature variability indexes. Together with previous findings our results suggest that: (1) latitudinal pattern for fitness-related traits, other than thermal characters, are beginning to emerge; (2) latitude is usually a better predictor of phenotypic plasticity than putative climatic variables; (3) hemispheric differences in climatic variability appears to be correlated with hemispheric differences in phenotypic plasticity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For socially hibernating mammals, the effectiveness of huddling as a means of energy conservation should increase with group size. However, group size has only been linked to increased survival in a few hibernating species, and the relative importance of social structure versus winter conditions during hibernation remains uncertain. We studied the influence of winter weather conditions, social group composition, age-structure, and other environmental factors and individual attributes on the overwinter survival of hoary marmots ( Marmota caligata) in the Yukon Territory, Canada. Juvenile hoary marmot survival was negatively correlated with the mean winter (November to May) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. Survival in older age-classes was negatively correlated with PDO lagged by 1 year. Social group size and structure were weakly correlated with survival in comparison to PDO. The relationship between winter PDO and survival was most likely due to the importance of snowpack as insulation during hibernation. The apparent response of hoary marmots to changing winter conditions contrasted sharply with those of other marmot species and other mammalian alpine herbivores. In conclusion, the severity of winter weather may constrain the effectiveness of group thermoregulation in socially hibernating mammals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although many species may be vulnerable to changes in climate, forecasting species-level responses can be challenging given the array of physiological, behavioral, and demographic attributes that might be affected. One strategy to improve forecasts is to evaluate how species responded to climatic variation in the past. We used 22 years of capture-recapture data for Sonoran desert tortoises ( Gopherus morafkai) collected from 15 locations across their geographic range in Arizona to evaluate how environmental factors affected spatial and temporal variation in survival. Although rates of annual survival were generally high ( $$ \overset{\lower0.5em\hbox{$\smash{\scriptscriptstyle\frown}$}}{\Upphi } $$ = 0.92), survival of adults decreased with drought severity, especially in portions of their range that were most arid and nearest to cities. In three locations where large numbers of carcasses from marked tortoises were recovered, survival of adults was markedly lower during periods of severe drought ( $$ \overset{\lower0.5em\hbox{$\smash{\scriptscriptstyle\frown}$}}{\Upphi } $$ = 0.77-0.81) compared to all other periods ( $$ \overset{\lower0.5em\hbox{$\smash{\scriptscriptstyle\frown}$}}{\Upphi } $$ = 0.93-0.98). Assuming continued levels of dependency of humans on fossil fuels, survival of adult tortoises is predicted to decrease by an average of 3 % during 2035-2060 relative to survival during 1987-2008 in 14 of the 15 populations we studied. This decrease could reduce persistence of tortoise populations, especially in arid portions of their range. Temporal and spatial variation in drought conditions are important determinants of survival in adult desert tortoises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctica, with its almost pristine conditions and relatively simple vegetation, offers excellent opportunities to investigate the influence of environmental factors on species performance, such information being crucial if the effects of possible climate change are to be understood. Antarctic vegetation is mainly cryptogamic. Cryptogams are poikilohydric and are only metabolically and photosynthetically active when hydrated. Activity patterns of the main life forms present, bryophytes (10 species, ecto- and endohydric), lichens (5 species) and phanerogams (2 species), were monitored for 21 days using chlorophyll a fluorescence as an indicator of metabolic activity and, therefore, of water regime at a mesic (hydration by meltwater) and a xeric (hydration by precipitation) site on Léonie Island/West Antarctic Peninsula (67°36′S). Length of activity depended mainly on site and form of hydration. Plants at the mesic site that were hydrated by meltwater were active for long periods, up to 100 % of the measurement period, whilst activity was much shorter at the xeric site where hydration was entirely by precipitation. There were also differences due to life form, with phanerogams and mesic bryophytes being most active and lichens generally much less so. The length of the active period for lichens was longer than in continental Antarctica but shorter than in the more northern Antarctic Peninsula. Light intensity when hydrated was positively related to the length of the active period. High activity species were strongly coupled to the incident light whilst low activity species were active under lower light levels and essentially uncoupled from incident light. Temperatures were little different between sites and also almost identical to temperatures, when active, for lichens in continental and peninsular Antarctica. Gradients in vegetation cover and growth rates across Antarctica are, therefore, not likely to be due to differences in temperature but more likely to the length of the hydrated (active) period. The strong effect on activity of the mode of hydration and the life form, plus the uncoupling from incident light for less active species, all make modelling of vegetation change with climate a more difficult exercise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem functioning on arid and semi-arid floodplains may be described by two alternate traditional paradigms. The pulse-reserve model suggests that rainfall is the main driver of plant growth and subsequent carbon and energy reserve formation in the soil of arid and semi-arid regions. The flood pulse concept suggests that periodic flooding facilitates the two-way transfer of materials between a river and its adjacent floodplain, but focuses mainly on the period when the floodplain is inundated. We compared the effects of both rainfall and flooding on soil moisture and carbon in a semi-arid floodplain to determine the relative importance of each for soil moisture recharge and the generation of a bioavailable organic carbon reserve that can potentially be utilised during the dry phase. Flooding, not rainfall, made a substantial contribution to moisture in the soil profile. Furthermore, the growth of aquatic macrophytes during the wet phase produced at least an order of magnitude more organic material than rainfall-induced pulse-reserve responses during the dry phase, and remained as recognizable soil carbon for years following flood recession. These observations have led us to extend existing paradigms to encompass the reciprocal provisioning of carbon between the wet and dry phases on the floodplain, whereby, in addition to carbon fixed during the dry phase being important for driving biogeochemical transformations upon return of the next wet phase, aquatic macrophyte carbon fixed during the wet phase is recognized as an important source of energy for the dry phase. Reciprocal provisioning presents a conceptual framework on which to formulate questions about the resistance and ecosystem resilience of arid and semi-arid floodplains in the face of threats like climate change and alterations to flood regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Closely related species with different physiological tolerances and distributions make ideal systems for documenting range shifts in response to a changing climate. Mytilus edulis, M. trossulus, and M. galloprovincialis are sibling species of marine mussels with distinct biogeographical ranges that are correlated with sea surface temperatures. We determined the scope for growth of these three species at a range of temperatures to determine if energetics could predict their distributions. Scope for growth (SFG) represents energy available for growth and/or reproduction above that necessary for maintenance requirements. The SFG of M. galloprovincialis, the species known to inhabit the warmest habitats, was shifted towards warmer temperatures compared to the other two species, remaining positive until nearly 30 °C. M. edulis, a cold-temperate species, maintained a positive SFG up to 23 °C. M. trossulus, a boreal species, generally was not able to maintain a positive SFG above 17 °C. The warm end of each species' range correlated strongly with the point at which that species' SFG became negative in summer and fall. Energetics at cold temperatures did not predict the cold end of the species' ranges, as there was no clear SFG advantage to explain the dominance of M. trossulus in cold habitats. As sea surface temperatures continue to warm with climate change, the energetics of these three species provide a basis for developing mechanistic models predicting future distribution and productivity changes in mussel populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological events, such as the initiation and the end of seasonal growth, are thought to be under strong evolutionary control because of their influence on tree fitness. Although numerous studies highlighted genetic differentiation in phenology among populations from contrasting climates, it remains unclear whether local adaptation could restrict phenological plasticity in response to current warming. Seedling populations of seven deciduous tree species from high and low elevations in the Swiss Alps were investigated in eight common gardens located along two elevational gradients from 400 to 1,700 m. We addressed the following questions: are there genetic differentiations in phenology between populations from low and high elevations, and are populations from the upper elevational limit of a species' distribution able to respond to increasing temperature to the same extent as low-elevation populations? Genetic variation of leaf unfolding date between seedlings from low and high populations was detected in six out of seven tree species. Except for beech, populations from high elevations tended to flush later than populations from low elevations, emphasizing that phenology is likely to be under evolutionary pressure. Furthermore, seedlings from high elevation exhibited lower phenological plasticity to temperature than low-elevation provenances. This difference in phenological plasticity may reflect the opposing selective forces involved (i.e. a trade-off between maximizing growing season length and avoiding frost damages). Nevertheless, environmental effects were much stronger than genetic effects, suggesting a high phenological plasticity to enable tree populations to track ongoing climate change, which includes the risk of tracking unusually warm springs followed by frost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation pulses in arid ecosystems can lead to temporal asynchrony in microbial and plant processing of nitrogen (N) during drying/wetting cycles causing increased N loss. In contrast, more consistent availability of soil moisture in mesic ecosystems can synchronize microbial and plant processes during the growing season, thus minimizing N loss. We tested whether microbial N cycling is asynchronous with plant N uptake in a semiarid grassland. Using N tracers, we compared rates of N cycling by microbes and N uptake by plants after water pulses of 1 and 2 cm to rates in control plots without a water pulse. Microbial N immobilization, gross N mineralization, and nitrification dramatically increased 1-3 days after the water pulses, with greatest responses after the 2-cm pulse. In contrast, plant N uptake increased more after the 1-cm than after the 2-cm pulse. Both microbial and plant responses reverted to control levels within 10 days, indicating that both microbial and plant responses were short lived. Thus, microbial and plant processes were temporally synchronous following a water pulse in this semiarid grassland, but the magnitude of the pulse substantially influenced whether plants or microbes were more effective in acquiring N. Furthermore, N loss increased after both small and large water pulses (as shown by a decrease in total N recovery), indicating that changes in precipitation event sizes with future climate change could exacerbate N losses from semiarid ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lemming cycles are a key process in the functioning of tundra ecosystems. Although it is agreed that trophic interactions are important in causing the cycles, the actual mechanism is disputed. Some researchers attribute a major role to predation by small mustelids such as stoats and least weasels. Here we present a 40-year time series of lemming dynamics from Wrangel Island and show statistically that lemmings do exhibit population cycles in the absence of small mustelids. The observed density fluctuations differed, however, from those observed elsewhere, with long cycles and possibly higher densities of lemmings during the low phase. These differences in the shape of the population cycles may be related to the unique species assemblage of Wrangel Island, where arctic foxes are the only year-round resident lemming predator, and to the high diversity of landscapes, microclimatic conditions, and plants on the island. Both spectral analysis and wavelet analysis show a change in period length from five years in the 1970s to nearly eight years in the 1990s and 2000s. This change in dynamics coincides with reports of dampening or fading out of lemming cycles that have been observed in several regions of the Arctic in recent decades. As in the other cases, the changed lemming dynamics on Wrangel Island may be related to ground icing in winter, which could delay peak years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The understanding of the impact of extreme climatic events under a global climate change scenario is crucial for the accurate forecast of future plant community dynamics. We have experimentally assessed the effect of drier and wetter summer conditions on the recruitment probabilities and the growth of seedlings from eight woody species representative of the most important functional groups in the community, pioneer shrubs, mid-successional shrubs and trees, across the main habitats in the study area (open habitat, shrubland, and forest). Our hypothesis proposes that wet summer conditions would represent a good opportunity for tree species regeneration, enhancing both forest maintenance and expansion. A drier summer scenario, on the other hand, would limit forest regeneration, and probably hinder the colonization of nearby habitats. We found a habitat effect on the emergence, survival, and final biomass, whereas different climate scenarios affected seedling survival and biomass. A wet summer boosted growth and survival, whereas greater drought reduced survival only in some cases. These results were modulated by the habitat type. Overall, shrub species presented higher survival and growth and were less affected by more severe drought, whereas some tree species proved to be extremely dependent on wet summer conditions. We conclude that the reduction in frequency of wet summers predicted for the coming decades in Mediterranean areas will have greater consequences for species recruitment than will increased drought. The different response of the species from the various functional groups has the potential to alter the composition and dominance of future plant communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models of impacts of climate change on species are generally based on correlations between current distributions and climatic variables, rather than a detailed understanding of the mechanisms that actually limit distribution. Many of the vertebrates endemic to rainforests of northeastern Australia are restricted to upland forests and considered to be threatened by climate change. However, for most of these species, the factors controlling their distributions are unknown. We examined the role of thermal intolerance as a possible mechanism limiting the distribution of Pseudochirops archeri (green ringtail possum), a specialist arboreal folivore restricted to rainforests above an altitude of 300 m in Australia's Wet Tropics. We measured short-term metabolic responses to a range of ambient temperatures, and found that P. archeri stores heat when ambient temperatures exceed 30°C, reducing water requirements for evaporative cooling. Due to the rate at which body temperature increases with ambient temperatures >30°C, this strategy is not effective over periods longer than 5 h. We hypothesise that the distribution of P. archeri is limited by interactions between (i) the duration and severity of extreme ambient temperatures (over 30°C), (ii) the scarcity of free water in the rainforest canopy in the dry season, and (iii) constraints on water intake from foliage imposed by plant secondary metabolites and fibre. We predict that dehydration becomes limiting for P. archeri where extreme ambient temperatures (>30°C) persist for more than 5 h per day over 4-6 days or more. Consistent with our hypothesis, the abundance of P. archeri in the field is correlated with the occurrence of extreme temperatures, declining markedly at sites where the average maximum temperature of the warmest week of the year is above 30°C. Assuming the mechanism of limitation is based on extreme temperatures, we expect impacts of climate change on P. archeri to occur in discrete, rapid events rather than as a slow contraction in range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strength and direction of phenological responses to changes in climate have been shown to vary significantly both among species and among populations of a species, with the overall patterns not fully resolved. Here, we studied the temporal and spatial variability associated with the response of several insect species to recent global warming. We use hierarchical models within a model comparison framework to analyze phenological data gathered over 40 years by the Japan Meteorological Agency on the emergence dates of 14 insect species at sites across Japan. Contrary to what has been predicted with global warming, temporal trends of annual emergence showed a later emergence day for some species and sites over time, even though temperatures are warming. However, when emergence data were analyzed as a function of temperature and precipitation, the overall response pointed out an earlier emergence day with warmer conditions. The apparent contradiction between the response to temperature and trends over time indicates that other factors, such as declining populations, may be affecting the date phenological events are being recorded. Overall, the responses by insects were weaker than those found for plants in previous work over the same time period in these ecosystems, suggesting the potential for ecological mismatches with deleterious effects for both suites of species. And although temperature may be the major driver of species phenology, we should be cautious when analyzing phenological datasets as many other factors may also be contributing to the variability in phenology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the major challenges in ecological climate change impact science is to untangle the climatic effects on biological interactions and indirect cascading effects through different ecosystems. Here, we test for direct and indirect climatic drivers on competitive impact of Arctic char ( Salvelinus alpinus L.) on brown trout ( Salmo trutta L.) along a climate gradient in central Scandinavia, spanning from coastal to high-alpine environments. As a measure of competitive impact, trout food consumption was measured using Cs tracer methodology both during the ice-covered and ice-free periods, and contrasted between lakes with or without char coexistence along the climate gradient. Variation in food consumption between lakes was best described by a linear mixed effect model including a three-way interaction between the presence/absence of Arctic char, season and Secchi depth. The latter is proxy for terrestrial dissolved organic carbon run-off, strongly governed by climatic properties of the catchment. The presence of Arctic char had a negative impact on trout food consumption. However, this effect was stronger during ice-cover and in lakes receiving high carbon load from the catchment, whereas no effect of water temperature was evident. In conclusion, the length of the ice-covered period and the export of allochthonous material from the catchment are likely major, but contrasting, climatic drivers of the competitive interaction between two freshwater lake top predators. While future climatic scenarios predict shorter ice-cover duration, they also predict increased carbon run-off. The present study therefore emphasizes the complexity of cascading ecosystem effects in future effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decomposer fungi are primary decomposing agents in terrestrial soils. Their mycelial networks play an important role in nutrient mineralisation and distribution, but are also nutritious resources for various soil invertebrates. Global climate change is predicted to alter the diversity and community composition of these soil fauna. To understand whether changes in invertebrate species diversity are likely to affect fungal-mediated decomposition, this study compared the grazing potentials of different invertebrate taxa and functional groups. Specifically, the grazing impacts of seven invertebrate taxa on the growth and spatial distribution of six basidiomycete fungi growing from beech wood blocks in soil microcosms were explored. Wood decay rates by fungi were also compared. The consequences of grazing were both taxon- and species-specific. Generally, macro-invertebrates caused the greatest damage, while meso- and micro-invertebrates often stimulated mycelial growth. Invertebrate size, preferences and population dynamics are likely to influence grazing potentials. Effects of grazing varied between fungi, with mycelial morphology and biochemistry possibly influencing susceptibility. Heavy grazing indirectly increased fungal-mediated wood decomposition. Changes in invertebrate community composition are predicted to have consequences for fungal growth, activity and community structure in woodland soils. Abiotic climate change factors including CO and temperature affect mycelial productivity directly, but the indirect effects, mediated through changes in the soil invertebrate community, may be equally important in controlling ecosystem functioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We hypothesized that the greater competitive ability of invasive exotic plants relative to native plants would increase under elevated CO because they typically have traits that confer the ability for fast growth when resources are not limiting and thus are likely to be more responsive to elevated CO. A series of competition experiments under ambient and elevated CO glasshouse conditions were conducted to determine an index of relative competition intensity for 14 native-invasive exotic species-pairs. Traits including specific leaf area, leaf mass ratio, leaf area ratio, relative growth rate, net assimilation rate and root weight ratio were measured. Competitive rankings within species-pairs were not affected by CO concentration: invasive exotic species were more competitive in 9 of the 14 species-pairs and native species were more competitive in the remaining 5 species-pairs, regardless of CO concentration. However, there was a significant interaction between plant type and CO treatment due to reduced competitive response of native species under elevated compared with ambient CO conditions. Native species had significantly lower specific leaf area and leaf area ratio under elevated compared with ambient CO. We also compared traits of more-competitive with less-competitive species, regardless of plant type, under both CO treatments. More-competitive species had smaller leaf weight ratio and leaf area ratio, and larger relative growth rate and net assimilation rate under both ambient and elevated CO conditions. These results suggest that growth and allocation traits can be useful predictors of the outcome of competitive interactions under both ambient and elevated CO conditions. Under predicted future atmospheric CO conditions, competitive rankings among species may not change substantially, but the relative success of invasive exotic species may be increased. Thus, under future atmospheric CO conditions, the ecological and economic impact of some invasive exotic plants may be even greater than under current conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive plants are thought to be especially capable of range shifts or expansion in response to climate change due to high dispersal and colonization abilities. Although highly invasive throughout the Intermountain West, the presence and impact of the grass Bromus tectorum has been limited at higher elevations in the eastern Sierra Nevada, potentially due to extreme wintertime conditions. However, climate models project an upward elevational shift of climate regimes in the Sierra Nevada that could favor B. tectorum expansion. This research specifically examined the effects of experimental snow depth manipulations and interannual climate variability over 5 years on B. tectorum populations at high elevation (2,175 m). Experimentally-increased snow depth had an effect on phenology and biomass, but no effect on individual fecundity. Instead an experimentally-increased snowpack inhibited population growth in 1 year by reducing seedling emergence and early survival. A similar negative effect of increased snow was observed 2 years later. However, a strong negative effect on B. tectorum was also associated with a naturally low-snow winter, when seedling emergence was reduced by 86%. Across 5 years, winters with greater snow cover and a slower accumulation of degree-days coincided with higher B. tectorum seedling density and population growth. Thus, we observed negative effects associated with both experimentally-increased and naturally-decreased snowpacks. It is likely that the effect of snow at high elevation is nonlinear and differs from lower elevations where wintertime germination can be favorable. Additionally, we observed a doubling of population size in 1 year, which is alarming at this elevation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation change from drought-induced mortality can alter ecosystem community structure, biodiversity, and services. Although drought-induced mortality of woody plants has increased globally with recent warming, influences of soil type, tree and shrub groups, and species are poorly understood. Following the severe 2002 drought in northern Arizona, we surveyed woody plant mortality and canopy dieback of live trees and shrubs at the forest–woodland ecotone on soils derived from three soil parent materials (cinder, flow basalt, sedimentary) that differed in texture and rockiness. Our first of three major findings was that soil parent material had little effect on mortality of both trees and shrubs, yet canopy dieback of trees was influenced by parent material; dieback was highest on the cinder for pinyon pine ( Pinus edulis) and one-seed juniper ( Juniperus monosperma). Ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa) dieback was not sensitive to parent material. Second, shrubs had similar mortality, but greater canopy dieback, than trees. Third, pinyon and ponderosa pines had greater mortality than juniper, yet juniper had greater dieback, reflecting different hydraulic characteristics among these tree species. Our results show that impacts of severe drought on woody plants differed among tree species and tree and shrub groups, and such impacts were widespread over different soils in the southwestern U.S. Increasing frequency of severe drought with climate warming will likely cause similar mortality to trees and shrubs over major soil types at the forest–woodland ecotone in this region, but due to greater mortality of other tree species, tree cover will shift from a mixture of species to dominance by junipers and shrubs. Surviving junipers and shrubs will also likely have diminished leaf area due to canopy dieback. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent advances in stochastic demography provide tools to examine the importance of random and periodic variation in vital rates for population dynamics. In this study, we explore with simulations the effect of disturbance regime on population dynamics and viability. We collected 7 years of demographic data in three populations of the perennial herb Primula farinosa, and used these data to examine how variation in vital rates affected population viability parameters (stochastic growth rate, λS), and how vital rates were related to weather conditions. Elasticity analysis indicated that the stochastic growth rate was very sensitive to changes in regeneration, quantified as the production, survival, and germination of seeds. In one of the study years, all seedlings and mature plants in the demography plots died. This extinction coincided with the driest summer during the study period. Simulations suggested that a future increase in the frequency of high-mortality years due to climate change would result in reduced population growth rate, and an increased importance of survival in the seed bank for population viability. The results illustrate how the limited demographic data typically available for many natural systems can be used in simulation models to assess how environmental change will affect population viability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting net C balance under future global change scenarios requires a comprehensive understanding of how ecosystem photosynthesis (gross primary production; GPP) and respiration (Re) respond to elevated atmospheric [CO2] and altered water availability. We measured net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), GPP and Re under ambient and elevated [CO2] in a northern mixed-grass prairie (Wyoming, USA) during dry intervals and in response to simulated precipitation pulse events. Elevated [CO2] resulted in higher rates of both GPP and Re across the 2006 growing season, and the balance of these two fluxes (NEE) accounted for cumulative growing season C uptake (−14.4 ± 8.3 g C m−2). Despite lower GPP and Re, experimental plots under ambient [CO2] had greater cumulative uptake (−36.2 ± 8.2 g C m−2) than plots under elevated [CO2]. Non-irrigated control plots received 50% of average precipitation during the drought of 2006, and had near-zero NEE (1.9 ± 6.4 g C m−2) for the growing season. Elevated [CO2] extended the magnitude and duration of pulse-related increases in GPP, resulting in a significant [CO2] treatment by pulse day interaction, demonstrating the potential for elevated [CO2] to increase the capacity of this ecosystem to respond to late-season precipitation. However, stimulation of Re throughout the growing season under elevated [CO2] reduced net C uptake compared to plots under ambient [CO2]. These results indicate that although elevated [CO2] stimulates gross rates of ecosystem C fluxes, it does not necessarily enhance net C uptake, and that C cycle responses in semi-arid grasslands are likely to be more sensitive to changes in precipitation than atmospheric [CO2]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While climate warming can increase plant N availability over the growing season by increasing rates of N mineralization, increased N mineralization over winter at a time when plant roots are largely inactive, coupled with an increased frequency of soil freeze–thaw cycles, may increase soil N leaching losses. We examined changes in soil net N mineralization and N leaching in response to warming and N addition (6 g m−2 year−1) in a factorial experiment conducted in a temperate old field. We used two warming treatments, year-round and winter-only warming, to isolate the effects of winter warming on soil N dynamics from the year-round warming effects. We estimated net N mineralization using in situ soil cores with resin bags placed at the bottom to catch throughput, and we measured N leaching using lysimeters located below the plant rooting zone at a depth of 50 cm. There were minor effects of warming on changes in soil extractable N and resin N in the soil cores over winter. Nevertheless, the overall effects of both warming and N addition on net N mineralization (the sum of changes in soil extractable N and resin N) were not significant over this period. Likewise, there were no significant treatment effects on the concentration of N in leachate collected below the plant rooting zone. However, in response to winter warming, net N mineralization over summer was approximately double that of both the ambient and year-round warming treatments. This result demonstrates a potentially large and unexpected effect of winter warming on soil N availability in this old field system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climate change has caused diverse ecological responses in plants and animals. However, relatively little is known about homeothermic animals’ ability to adapt to changing temperature regimes through changes in body size, in accordance with Bergmann’s rule. We used fluctuations in mean annual temperatures in south-west Germany since 1972 in order to look for direct links between temperature and two aspects of body size: body mass and flight feather length. Data from regionally born juveniles of 12 passerine bird species were analysed. Body mass and feather length varied significantly among years in eight and nine species, respectively. Typically the inter-annual changes in morphology were complexly non-linear, as was inter-annual variation in temperature. For six (body mass) and seven species (feather length), these inter-annual fluctuations were significantly correlated with temperature fluctuations. However, negative correlations consistent with Bergmann’s rule were only found for five species, either for body mass or feather length. In several of the species for which body mass and feather length was significantly associated with temperature, morphological responses were better predicted by temperature data that were smoothed across multiple years than by the actual mean breeding season temperatures of the year of birth. This was found in five species for body mass and three species for feather length. These results suggest that changes in body size may not merely be the result of phenotypic plasticity but may hint at genetically based microevolutionary adaptations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree-ring width of Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr., ratios of stable isotopes of C (δ13C) and O (δ18O) of whole wood and cellulose chronologies were obtained for the northern part of central Siberia (Tura, Russia) for the period 1864–2006. A strong decrease in the isotope ratios of O and C (after atmospheric δ13C corrections) and tree-ring width was observed for the period 1967–2005, while weather station data show a decrease in July precipitation, along with increasing July air temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Temperature at the end of May and the whole month of June mainly determines tree radial growth and marks the beginning of the vegetation period in this region. A positive correlation between tree-ring width and July precipitation was found for the calibration period 1929–2005. Positive significant correlations between C isotope chronologies and temperatures of June and July were found for whole wood and cellulose and negative relationships with July precipitation. These relationships are strengthened when the likely physiological response of trees to increased CO2 is taken into account (by applying a recently developed δ13C correction). For the O isotope ratios, positive relationships with annual temperature, VPD of July and a negative correlation with annual precipitation were observed. The δ18O in tree rings may reflect annual rather than summer temperatures, due to the late melting of the winter snow and its contribution to the tree water supply in summer. We observed a clear change in the isotope and climate trends after the 1960s, resulting in a drastic change in the relationship between C and O isotope ratios from a negative to a positive correlation. According to isotope fractionation models, this indicates reduced stomatal conductance at a relatively constant photosynthetic rate, as a response of trees to water deficit for the last half century in this permafrost region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While changes in spring phenological events due to global warming have been widely documented, changes in autumn phenology, and therefore in growing season length, are less studied and poorly understood. However, it may be helpful to assess the potential lengthening of the growing season under climate warming in order to determine its further impact on forest productivity and C balance. The present study aimed to: (1) characterise the sensitivity of leaf phenological events to temperature, and (2) quantify the relative contributions of leaf unfolding and senescence to the extension of canopy duration with increasing temperature, in four deciduous tree species ( Acer pseudoplatanus, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior and Quercus petraea). For 3 consecutive years, we monitored the spring and autumn phenology of 41 populations at elevations ranging from 100 to 1,600 m. Overall, we found significant altitudinal trends in leaf phenology and species-specific differences in temperature sensitivity. With increasing temperature, we recorded an advance in flushing from 1.9 ± 0.3 to 6.6 ± 0.4 days °C−1 (mean ± SD) and a 0 to 5.6 ± 0.6 days °C−1 delay in leaf senescence. Together both changes resulted in a 6.9 ± 1.0 to 13.0 ± 0.7 days °C−1 lengthening of canopy duration depending on species. For three of the four studied species, advances in flushing were the main factor responsible for lengthening canopy duration with increasing temperature, leading to a potentially larger gain in solar radiation than delays in leaf senescence. In contrast, for beech, we found a higher sensitivity to temperature in leaf senescence than in flushing, resulting in an equivalent contribution in solar radiation gain. These results suggest that climate warming will alter the C uptake period and forest productivity by lengthening canopy duration. Moreover, the between-species differences in phenological responses to temperature evidenced here could affect biotic interactions under climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration is one of the most spectacular of animal behaviors and is prevalent across a broad array of taxa. In birds, we know much about the physiological basis of how birds migrate, but less about the relative contribution of genetic versus environmental factors in controlling migratory tendency. To evaluate the extent to which migratory decisions are genetically determined, we examined whether individual western burrowing owls ( Athene cunicularia hypugaea) change their migratory tendency from one year to the next at two sites in southern Arizona. We also evaluated the heritability of migratory decisions by using logistic regression to examine the association between the migratory tendency of burrowing owl parents and their offspring. The probability of migrating decreased with age in both sexes and adult males were less migratory than females. Individual owls sometimes changed their migratory tendency from one year to the next, but changes were one-directional: adults that were residents during winter 2004–2005 remained residents the following winter, but 47% of adults that were migrants in winter 2004–2005 became residents the following winter. We found no evidence for an association between the migratory tendency of hatch-year owls and their male or female parents. Migratory tendency of hatch-year owls did not differ between years, study sites or sexes or vary by hatching date. Experimental provision of supplemental food did not affect these relationships. All of our results suggest that heritability of migratory tendency in burrowing owls is low, and that intraspecific variation in migratory tendency is likely due to: (1) environmental factors, or (2) a combination of environmental factors and non-additive genetic variation. The fact that an individual’s migratory tendency can change across years implies that widespread anthropogenic changes (i.e., climate change or changes in land use) could potentially cause widespread changes in the migratory tendency of birds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To estimate the potential effects of climate change on polar marine macroalgae, studies on interactive stress effects of multiple climate-related parameters are essential. Interactions of temperature, radiation and salinity on two different life history stages of Alaria esculenta (L.) Greville from the Kongsfjord (Spitsbergen) were investigated for the first time within this study. Adult macroscopic sporophytes of A. esculenta were exposed to different temperatures between 4 and 21°C combined with artificial irradiation conditions [photosynthetically active radiation, ultraviolet (UV) radiation: UV-A/UV-B, first experiment] and with different salinities [34, 28, 20 practical salinity units (p.s.u.)¸ second experiment]. Effects of photosynthetic activity were determined by measuring variable chlorophyll fluorescence of photosystem II. Germination success of young microscopic zoospores of A. esculenta was studied under multifactorial stress. Zoospore suspensions were exposed to the three different salinities and irradiation conditions at four temperatures between 2 and 16°C. Overall, A. esculenta exhibited a highly stage-specific susceptibility towards the experimental treatments. In both experiments using sporophytes, photosynthetic activity showed significant temperature effects and only very few significant radiation and salinity effects. Microscopic stages of A. esculenta were shown to be more sensitive than the adult macroscopic stages, since germination capacity of zoospores was significantly affected by temperature and salinity changes, and interactions of both. These results suggest that multiple stress factors interact synergistically. Temperature seems to be a predominant environmental parameter for the kelp A. esculenta. Overall, A. esculenta proved to be relatively tolerant and adaptable to increasing temperature and UV radiation, as well as to diluted salinities, but only up to a specific limit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale ocean-atmosphere physical dynamics can have profound impacts on the structure and organization of marine ecosystems. These changes have been termed “regime shifts”, and five different episodes have been detected in the North Pacific Ocean, with concurrent changes also occurring in the Bering and Beaufort Seas. Belugas from the Eastern Beaufort Sea (EBS) use the Bering Sea during winter and the Beaufort Sea during summer, yet the potential effects of regime shifts on belugas have not been assessed. We investigated whether body size and survivorship of EBS belugas harvested in the Mackenzie River delta region between 1993 and 2003 have been affected by previous purported regime shifts in the North Pacific. Residuals from the relationship between body length and age were calculated and compared among belugas born between 1932 and 1989. Residual body size was not significantly related to birth year for any regime, nor to the age group individuals belonged to during any regime. The percentage deviation in number of belugas born in any given year that survived to be included in the hunt (survivorship) did not show any significant trend within or between regimes. Accounting for lags of 1–5 years did not reveal any evidence of delayed effects. Furthermore, neither population index was significantly related to changes in major climatic variables that precede regime shifts. Our results suggest that EBS beluga body size and survivorship have not been affected by the major regime shifts of the North Pacific and the adjacent Bering and Beaufort Seas. EBS belugas may have been able to modify their diet without compromising their growth and survivorship. Diet and reproductive analyses over large and small time scales can help understand the mechanisms enabling belugas to avoid significant growth and reproductive effects of past regime shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To examine the impact of projected climate changes on secondary succession, we exposed the same fallow soil with a common seed bank to an in situ gradient of urban to rural macroenvironments that differed in temperature and CO2 concentration ([CO2]). This gradient was established at three locations: Baltimore city center (urban), a city park on the outskirts of Baltimore (suburban), and an organic farm 87 km from the Baltimore city center site (rural). Over a five-year period, the urban site averaged 2.1°C warmer and had a [CO2] that was ~20% higher than at the rural location, indicating that this gradient was a reasonable surrogate for projected changes in those variables for this century. Previous work had demonstrated that other abiotic variables measured across the transect, including tropospheric ozone and nitrogen deposition, did not differ consistently. The first year of exposure resulted in (two- to threefold) greater aboveground biomass in the urban relative to the rural site, but with uniform species composition across sites. Simple regression of abiotic variables indicated that temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) were the best predictors of plant biomass among locations. Stepwise multiple regressions were also performed to analyze the effect of more than one macroenvironmental variable on total plant biomass. The combination of daily CO2 concentration and nighttime temperature explained 87% ( P < 0.01) of the variability in total biomass between sites. After five years, the species demography of the plant communities had changed significantly, with a greater ratio of perennials to annuals for the urban relative to the rural location. Greater first-year biomass and litter accumulation at the urban site may have suppressed the subsequent seed germination of annual species, accelerating changes in species composition. If urban macroenvironments reflect future global change conditions, these data suggest a faster rate of secondary succession in a warmer, higher [CO2] world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the status and trends in animal populations is essential for effective species conservation and management practices. However, unless time-series abundance data demonstrate rapid and reliable fluctuations, objective appraisal of directionality of trends is problematic. We adopted a multiple-working hypotheses approach based on information-theoretic and Bayesian multi-model inference to examine the population trends and form of intrinsic regulation demonstrated by a long-lived species, the southern elephant seal. We also determined the evidence for density dependence in 11 other well-studied marine mammal species. (1) We tested the type of population regulation for elephant seals from Marion Island (1986–2004) and from 11 other marine mammal species, and (2) we described the trends and behavior of the 19-year population time series at Marion Island to identify changes in population trends. We contrasted five plausible trend models using information-theoretic and Bayesian-inference estimates of model parsimony. Our analyses identified two distinct phases of population growth for this population with the inflexion occurring in 1998. Thus, the population decreased between 1986 and 1997 (−3.7% per annum) and increased between 1997 and 2004 (1.9% per annum). An index of environmental stochasticity, the Southern Oscillation Index, explained some of the variance in r and N. We determined analytically that there was good evidence for density dependence in the Marion Island population and that density dependence was widespread among marine mammal species (67% of species showed evidence for population regulation). This approach demonstrates the potential functionality of a relatively simple technique that can be applied to short time series to identify the type of regulation, and the uncertainty associated with the phenomenon, operating in populations of large mammals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution of dry Douglas-fir forests in western North America is expected to shift northward with climate change and disappear from the grassland interface in the southern interior of British Columbia. This shift may be accentuated by clearcutting, a common harvesting practice that aims to reduce the competitive effects of residual mature trees on new regeneration, but in so doing, ignores their facilitative effects. In this study, we investigated the net effects of competition from and facilitation by mature trees retained on harvested sites on seedling establishment in the dry interface Douglas-fir forests. We demonstrate that access to a mycorrhizal network (MN) and proximity to trees have important influences on seedling performance. On six sites, we established trenched plots around 24 mature Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca (Douglas-fir) trees, then planted Douglas-fir seedlings into four mesh treatments that served to restrict MN access (i.e., planted into mesh bags with 0.5-, 35-, or 250-μm pores, or without mesh) or into impermeable bags (grown in isolation) at four distances (0.5, 1.0, 2.5, or 5.0 m). Seedling survival tended to be greater and water stress lower where seedlings had full access to the MN. Seedling height, shoot biomass, needle biomass, and nutrient uptake peaked at 2.5–5.0 m from mature trees. Seedlings 0.5 m from mature trees had lower CO2 assimilation rates and wood δ13C compared to seedlings 5.0 m away. Competition for soil resources was highest near mature trees but facilitation was relatively greater at further distances, resulting in a zone of net benefit for seedlings. These results show that intraspecific tree-seedling interactions are both competitive and facilitative in dry Douglas-fir forests, and that they are spatially dependent. After disturbance, maintaining residual mature trees may be important for their beneficial regeneration zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plankton succession during spring/early summer in temperate lakes is characterised by a highly predictable pattern: a phytoplankton bloom is grazed down by zooplankton ( Daphnia) inducing a clear-water phase. This sequence of events is commonly understood as a cycle of consumer-resource dynamics, i.e. zooplankton growth is driven by food availability. Here we suggest, using a modelling study based on a size-structured Daphnia population model, that temperature and not food is the dominant factor driving interannual variability of Daphnia population dynamics during spring. Simply forcing this model with a seasonal temperature regime typical for temperate lakes is sufficient for generating the distinctive seasonal trajectory of Daphnia abundances observed in meso-eutrophic temperate lakes. According to a scenario analysis, a forward shift of the vernal temperature increase by 60 days will advance the timing of the Daphnia maximum on average by 54 days, while a forward shift in the start of the spring bloom by 60 days will advance the Daphnia maximum only by less than a third (17 days). Hence, the timing of temperature increase was more important for the timing of Daphnia development than the timing of the onset of algal growth. The effect of temperature is also large compared to the effect of applying different Daphnia mortality rates (0.055 or 0.1 day−1, 38 days), an almost tenfold variation in phytoplankton carrying capacity (25 days) and a tenfold variation in Daphnia overwintering abundance (3 days). However, the standing stock of Daphnia at its peak was almost exclusively controlled by the phytoplankton carrying capacity of the habitat and seems to be essentially independent of temperature. Hence, whereas food availability determines the standing stock of Daphnia at its spring maximum, temperature appears to be the most important factor driving the timing of the Daphnia maximum and the clear-water phase in spring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is predicted to have major negative impacts on biodiversity, particularly if important habitat-modifying species undergo range shifts. The sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii (Diadematidae) has recently undergone poleward range expansion to relatively cool, macroalgal dominated rocky reefs of eastern Tasmania (southeast Australia). As in its historic environment, C. rodgersii in the extended range is now found in association with a simplified ‘barrens’ habitat grazed free of macroalgae. The new and important role of this habitat-modifier on reef structure and associated biodiversity was clearly demonstrated by completely removing C. rodgersii from incipient barrens patches at an eastern Tasmanian site and monitoring the macroalgal response relative to unmanipulated barrens patches. In barrens patches from which C. rodgersii was removed, there was a rapid proliferation of canopy-forming macroalgae ( Ecklonia radiata and Phyllospora comosa), and within 24 months the algal community structure had converged with that of adjacent macroalgal beds where C. rodgersii grazing was absent. A notable scarcity of limpets on C. rodgersii barrens in eastern Tasmania (relative to the historic range) likely promotes rapid macroalgal recovery upon removal of the sea urchin. In the recovered macroalgal habitat, faunal composition redeveloped similar to that from adjacent intact macroalgal beds in terms of total numbers of taxa, total individuals and Shannon diversity. In contrast, the faunal community of the barrens habitat is overwhelmingly impoverished. Of 296 individual floral/faunal taxa recorded, only 72 were present within incipient barrens, 253 were present in the recovered patches, and 221 were present within intact macroalgal beds. Grazing activity of C. rodgersii results in an estimated minimum net loss of approximately 150 taxa typically associated with Tasmanian macroalgal beds in this region. Such a disproportionate effect by a single range-expanding species demonstrates that climate change may lead to unexpectedly large impacts on marine biodiversity as key habitat-modifying species undergo range modification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data on the first appearance of species in the field season are widely used in phenological studies. However, there are probabilistic arguments for bias in estimates of phenological change if sampling methods or population abundances change. We examined the importance of bias in three measures of phenological change: (1) the date of the first X appearances, (2) the date of the first Y% of all first appearances and (3) the date of the first Z% of the individuals observed during the entire flight period. These measures were tested by resampling the data of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme and by simulations using artificial data. We compared datasets differing in the number of sampling sites, population abundance and the start of the observation period. The date of the first X appearances proved to be sensitive to the number of sampling sites. Both the date of the first X appearances and the date of the first Y% of all first appearances were sensitive to population trend. No such biases were found for estimates of the first Z% of the flight period, but all three measures were sensitive to changes in the start of the observation period. The conclusions were similar for both the study on butterfly data and the simulation study. Bias in phenology assessments based on first appearance data may be considerable and should no longer be ignored in phenological research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of local adaptation and factors other than climate in determining extinction probabilities of species under climate change has not been yet explicitly studied. Here we performed a field experiment with annual plants growing along a steep climatic gradient in Israel to isolate climatic effects for local trait expression. The focus trait was seed dormancy, for which many theoretical predictions exist regarding climate-driven optimal germination behaviour. We evaluated how germination is consistent with theory, indicating local adaptation to current and changing climatic conditions, and how it varies among species and between natural and standardised soil conditions. We reciprocally sowed seeds from three or four origins for each of three annual species, Biscutella didyma, Bromus fasciculatus and Hymenocarpos circinnatus, in their home and neighbouring sowing locations along an aridity gradient. Our predictions were: lower germination fraction for seeds from more arid origins, and higher germination at wetter sowing locations for all seed origins. By sowing seeds in both local and standard soil, we separated climatic effects from local conditions. At the arid sowing location, two species supported the prediction of low germination of drier seed origins, but differences between seed origins at the other sites were not substantial. There were no clear rainfall effects on germination. Germination fractions were consistently lower on local soil than on standard soil, indicating the important role of soil type and neighbour conditions for trait expression. Local environmental conditions may override effects of climate and so should be carefully addressed in future studies testing for the potential of species to adapt or plastically respond to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We revisit the relationship between plant water use efficiency and carbon isotope signatures (δ13C) of plant material. Based on the definitions of intrinsic, instantaneous and integrated water use efficiency, we discuss the implications for interpreting δ13C data from leaf to landscape levels, and across diurnal to decadal timescales. Previous studies have often applied a simplified, linear relationship between δ13C, ratios of intercellular to ambient CO2 mole fraction ( C i/ C a), and water use efficiency. In contrast, photosynthetic 13C discrimination (Δ) is sensitive to the ratio of the chloroplast to ambient CO2 mole fraction, C c/ C a (rather than C i/ C a) and, consequently, to mesophyll conductance. Because mesophyll conductance may differ between species and over time, it is not possible to determine C c/ C a from the same gas exchange measurements as C i/ C a. On the other hand, water use efficiency at the leaf level depends on evaporative demand, which does not directly affect Δ. Water use efficiency and Δ can thus vary independently, making it difficult to obtain trends in water use efficiency from δ13C data. As an alternative approach, we offer a model available at to explore how water use efficiency and 13C discrimination are related across leaf and canopy scales. The model provides a tool to investigate whether trends in Δ indicate changes in leaf functional traits and/or environmental conditions during leaf growth, and how they are associated with trends in plant water use efficiency. The model can be used, for example, to examine whether trends in δ13C signatures obtained from tree rings imply changes in tree water use efficiency in response to atmospheric CO2 increase. This is crucial for predicting how plants may respond to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather variables can influence life-history traits of ungulates. In this study, we assessed the suitability of regional climate indices including the NAO and two measures of local climate—the maximal extent of ice on the Baltic Sea (MIE) and absolute values of its annual deviations from the multi-year mean (VMIE)—to examine how density-independent processes influence moose body size and fecundity. We predicted that both winter severity (large values of MIE) and variability (large values of VMIE) depress moose traits (e.g., severe winters increase energy expenditure because of large snow depth or low temperatures, while the warmer than average winters may impose greater energetic demands on thermoregulation due to wet and windy weather, or may have indirect negative effects on summer foraging conditions). We estimated direct, delayed (lag) and cumulative effects of each climate measure. Both MIE and VMIE negatively affected jawbone length, with the effect size varying between the respective climatic indices and among age classes. In contrast to results obtained using local climatic variables, the NAO index had no significant effect on jawbone length. The probability of multiple ovulation was negatively influenced by direct effects of VMIE and delayed effects of MIE and NAO. We conclude that MIE and VMIE capture different aspects of the local climate and that these indices can be used in parallel as determinants of growth and fecundity of northern ungulates in coastal regions of the Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stable isotope composition of spines produced serially from the apex of columnar cacti has the potential to be used as a record of changes in climate and physiology. To investigate this potential, we measured the δ18O, δ13C and F14C values of spines from a long-lived columnar cactus, saguaro ( Carnegiea gigantea). To determine plant age, we collected spines at 11 different heights along one rib from the stem apex (3.77 m height) to the base of a naturally occurring saguaro. Fractions of modern carbon (F14C) ranged from 0.9679 to 1.5537, which is consistent with ages between 1950 and 2004. We observed a very strong positive correlation ( r = 0.997) between the F14C age of spines and the age of spines determined from direct and repeated height measurements taken on this individual over the past 37 years. A series of 96 spines collected from this individual had δ18O values ranging from 38‰ to 50‰ [Vienna standard mean ocean water (VSMOW)] and δ13C values from −11.5‰ to −8.5‰ [Vienna Peedee belemnite (VPDB)]. The δ18O and δ13C values of spines were positively correlated ( r = 0.45, P < 0.0001) and showed near-annual oscillations over the ∼15-year record. This pattern suggests that seasonal periods of reduced evaporative demand or greater precipitation input may correspond to increased daytime CO2 uptake. The lowest δ18O and δ13C values of spines observed occurred during the 1983 and 1993 El Niño years, suggesting that the stable isotope composition recorded in spine tissue may serve as a proxy for these climate events. We compared empirical models and data from potted experimental cacti to validate these observations and test our hypotheses. The isotopic records presented here are the first ever reported from a chronosequence of cactus spines and demonstrate that tissues of columnar cacti, and potentially other long-lived succulents, may contain a record of past physiological and climatic variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]