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The measurement of naturally occurring stable isotope ratios of the light elements (C, N, H, O, S) in animal tissues and associated organic and inorganic fractions of associated environments holds immense potential as a means of addressing effects of global change on animals. This paper provides a brief review of studies that have used the isotope approach to evaluate changes in diet, isotopic niche, contaminant burden, reproductive and nutritional investment, invasive species and shifts in migration origin or destination with clear links to evaluating effects of global change. This field has now reached a level of maturity that is impressive but generally underappreciated and involves technical as well as statistical advances and access to freely available R-based packages. There is a need for animal ecologists and conservationists to design tissue collection networks that will best answer current and anticipated questions related to the global change and the biodiversity crisis. These developments will move the field of stable isotope ecology toward a more hypothesis driven discipline related to rapidly changing global events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal changes in environmental conditions drive phenology, i.e., the annual timing of biological events ranging from the individual to the ecosystem. Phenological patterns and successional abundance cycles have been particularly well studied in temperate freshwater systems, showing strong and predictable synchrony with seasonal changes. However, seasonal successional changes in the abundance of parasites or their infection levels in aquatic hosts have not yet been shown to follow universal patterns. Here, using a compilation of several hundred estimates of spring-to-summer changes in infection by trematodes in their intermediate and definitive hosts, spanning multiple species and habitats, we test for general patterns of seasonal (temperature) driven changes in infection levels. The data include almost as many decreases in infection levels from spring to summer as there are increases, across different host types. Our results reveal that the magnitude of the spring-to-summer change in temperature had a weak positive effect on the concurrent change in prevalence of infection in first intermediate hosts, but no effect on the change in prevalence or abundance of infection in second intermediate or definitive hosts. This was true across habitat types and host taxa, indicating no universal effect of seasonal temperature increase on trematode infections. This surprising variation across systems suggests a predominance of idiosyncratic and species-specific responses in trematode infection levels, at odds with any clear phenological or successional pattern. We discuss possible reasons for the minimal and variable effect of seasonal temperature regimes, and emphasise the challenges this poses for predicting ecosystem responses to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insect colours assist in body protection, signalling, and physiological adaptations. Colours also convey multiple channels of information. These channels are valuable for species identification, distinguishing individual quality, and revealing ecological or evolutionary aspects of animals' life. During recent years, the emerging interest in colour research has been raised in social hymenopterans such as ants, wasps, and bees. These insects provide important ecosystem services and many of those are model research organisms. Here we review benefits that various colour types give to social insects, summarize practical applications, and highlight further directions. Ants might use colours principally for camouflage, however the evolutionary function of colour in ants needs more attention; in case of melanin colouration there is evidence for its interrelation with thermoregulation and pathogen resistance. Colours in wasps and bees have confirmed linkages to thermoregulation, which is increasingly important in face of global climate change. Besides wasps use colours for various types of signalling. Colour variations of well chemically defended social insects are the mimetic model for unprotected organisms. Despite recent progress in molecular identification of species, colour variations are still widely in use for species identification. Therefore, further studies on variability is encouraged. Being closely interconnected with physiological and biochemical processes, insect colouration is a great source for finding new ecological indicators and biomarkers. Due to novel digital imaging techniques, software, and artificial intelligence there are emerging possibilities for new advances in this topic. Further colour research in social insects should consider specific features of sociality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More frequent and extreme heat waves threaten climate-sensitive species. Structurally complex, older forests can buffer these effects by creating cool microclimates, although the mechanisms by which forest refugia mitigate physiological responses to heat exposure and subsequent population-level consequences remain relatively unexplored. We leveraged fine-scale movement data, doubly labeled water, and two decades of demographic data for the California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) to (1) assess the role of older forest characteristics as potential energetic buffers for individuals and (2) examine the subsequent value of older forests as refugia for a core population in the Sierra Nevada and a periphery population in the San Bernardino Mountains. Individuals spent less energy moving during warmer sampling periods and the presence of tall canopies facilitated energetic conservation during daytime roosting activities. In the core population, where tall-canopied forest was prevalent, temperature anomalies did not affect territory occupancy dynamics as warmer sites were both less likely to go extinct and less likely to become colonized, suggesting a trade-off between foraging opportunities and temperature exposure. In the peripheral population, sites were more likely to become unoccupied following warm summers, presumably because of less prevalent older forest conditions. While individuals avoided elevated energetic expenditure associated with temperature exposure, behavioral strategies to conserve energy may have diverted time and energy from reproduction or territory defense. Conserving older forests, which are threatened due to fire and drought, may benefit individuals from energetic consequences of exposure to stressful thermal conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the cold arctic winter, small mammals like lemmings seek refuge inside the snowpack to keep warm and they dig tunnels in the basal snow layer, usually formed of a soft depth hoar, to find vegetation on which they feed. The snowpack, however, is a heterogenous medium and lemmings should use habitats where snow properties favor their survival and winter reproduction. We determined the impact of snow physical properties on lemming habitat use and reproduction in winter by sampling their winter nests for 13 years and snow properties for 6 years across 4 different habitats (mesic, riparian, shrubland, and wetland) on Bylot Island in the Canadian High Arctic. We found that lemmings use riparian habitat most intensively because snow accumulates more rapidly, the snowpack is the deepest and temperature of the basal snow layer is the highest in this habitat. However, in the deepest snowpacks, the basal depth hoar layer was denser and less developed than in habitats with shallower snowpacks, and those conditions were negatively related to lemming reproduction in winter. Shrubland appeared a habitat of moderate quality for lemmings as it favored a soft basal snow layer and a deep snowpack compared with mesic and wetland, but snow conditions in this habitat critically depend on weather conditions at the beginning of the winter. With climate change, a hardening of the basal layer of the snowpack and a delay in snow accumulation are expected, which could negatively affect the winter habitat of lemmings and be detrimental to their populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and invasive species are two major drivers of biodiversity loss and their interaction may lead to unprecedented further loss. Invasive ectotherms can be expected to tolerate temperature variation because of a broad thermal tolerance and may even benefit from warmer temperatures in their new ranges that better match their thermal preference. Multi-trait studies provide a valuable approach to elucidate the influence of temperature on the invasion process and offer insights into how climatic factors may facilitate or hinder the spread of invasive ectotherms. We here used marsh frogs, Pelophylax ridibundus, a species that is invading large areas of Western Europe but whose invasive potential has been underestimated. We measured the maximal and minimal temperatures to sustain physical activity, the preferred temperature, and the thermal dependence of their stamina and jumping performance in relation to the environmental temperatures observed in their invasive range. Our results showed that marsh frogs can withstand body temperatures that cover 100% of the annual temperature variation in the pond they live in and 77% of the observed current annual air temperature variation. Their preferred body temperature and performance optima were higher than the average temperature in their pond and the average air temperature experienced under the shade. These data suggest that invasive marsh frogs may benefit from a warmer climate. Broad thermal tolerances, combined with high thermal preferences and traits maximised at high temperatures, may allow this species to expand their activity period and colonise underexploited shaded habitat, thereby promoting their invasion success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) possesses a broad suite of adaptations to winter, including a seasonal coat color molt. Recently, climate change has been implicated in the range contraction of snowshoe hares along the southern range boundary. With shortening snow season duration, snowshoe hares are experiencing increased camouflage mismatch with their environment reducing survival. Phenological variation of hare molt at regional scales could facilitate local adaptation in the face of climate change, but the level of variation, especially along the southern range boundary, is unknown. Using a network of trail cameras and historical museum specimens, we (1) developed contemporary and historical molt phenology curves in the Upper Great Lakes region, USA, (2) calculated molt rate and variability in and among populations, and (3) quantified the relationship of molt characteristics to environmental conditions for snowshoe hares across North America. We found that snowshoe hares across the region exhibited similar fall and spring molt phenologies, rates and variation. Yet, an insular island population of hares on Isle Royale National Park, MI, completed their molt a week earlier in the fall and initiated molt almost 2 weeks later in the spring as well as exhibited slower rates of molting in the fall season compared to the mainland. Over the last 100 years, snowshoe hares across the region have not shifted in fall molt timing; though contemporary spring molt appears to have advanced by 17 days (~ 4 days per decade) compared to historical molt phenology. Our research indicates that some variation in molt phenology exists for snowshoe hares in the Upper Great Lakes region, but whether this variation is enough to offset the consequences of climate change remains to be seen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasingly warmer springs have caused phenological shifts in both plants and animals. In birds, it is well established that mean laying date has advanced to match the earlier food peak. We know less about changes in the distribution of egg-laying dates within a population and the environmental variables that determine this variation. This could be an important component of how populations respond to climate change. We, therefore, used laying date and environmental data from 39 years (1983–2021) to determine how climate change affected laying date variation in blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and marsh tits (Poecile palustris), two sympatric passerines with different life histories. Both species advanced mean laying date (0.19–0.24 days per year) and mean laying date showed a negative relationship with maximum spring temperature in both blue and marsh tits. In springs with no clear temperature increase during the critical time window (the time-window in which mean laying date was most sensitive to temperature) start of breeding in blue tits was distributed over a longer part of the season. However, there was no such pattern in marsh tits. Our findings suggest that temperature change, and not necessarily absolute temperature, can shape the variation in breeding phenology in a species-specific manner, possibly linked to variation in life-history strategies. This is an important consideration when predicting how climate change affects timing of breeding within a population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is determining a generalized phenological advancement, and amphibians are among the taxa showing the strongest phenological responsiveness to warming temperatures. Amphibians are strongly influenced by climate change, but we do not have a clear picture of how climate influences important parameters of amphibian populations, such as abundance, survival, breeding success and morphology. Furthermore, the relative impact of temperature and precipitation change remains underappreciated. We used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to quantify the impact of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance, individual features and performance. We obtained effect sizes from studies performed in five continents. Temperature increase was the major driver of phenological advancement, while the impact of precipitation on phenology was weak. Conversely, population dynamics was mostly determined by precipitation: negative trends were associated with drying regimes. The impact of precipitation on abundance was particularly strong in tropical areas, while the importance of temperature was feeble. Both temperature and precipitation influenced parameters representing breeding performance, morphology, developmental rate and survival, but the response was highly heterogeneous among species. For instance, warming temperature increased body size in some species, and decreased size in others. Similarly, rainy periods increased survival of some species and reduced the survival of others. Our study showed contrasting impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on amphibian populations. Both climatic parameters strongly influenced amphibian performance, but temperature was the major determinant of the phenological changes, while precipitation had the major role on population dynamics, with alarming declines associated with drying trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alpine plants in Australia are increasingly exposed to more frequent drought and heatwaves, with significant consequences for physiological stress responses. Acclimation is a critical feature that allows plants to improve tolerance to environmental extremes by directly altering their physiology or morphology. Yet it is unclear how plant performance, tolerance, and recovery are affected when heat and water stress co-occur, and whether prior exposure affects responses to subsequent climate extremes. We grew a common alpine grass species under high or low watering treatments for three weeks before exposure to either none, one, or two heat stress events. We determined photosynthetic heat and freezing tolerance (LT50, mean temperature causing 50% irreversible damage to photosystem II) and growth. Physiological adjustments to low watering, including more negative water potentials and reduced growth, were also characterised by improved tolerance to high and low-temperature extremes. Shifts to higher heat tolerance were also evident with increasing exposure to heat stress events, though freezing tolerance was not affected. Acclimation effects were mostly short-term, however; prior exposure to heat and/or water stress had little to no effect on growth and thermal tolerance following the six-week recovery period. We conclude that rapid acclimation to water and heat stress that co-occur during summer enhances the capacity of alpine plants to tolerate increasingly frequent temperature extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change has profound effects on species, especially those in habitats already altered by humans. Tropical ectotherms are predicted to be at high risk from global temperature increases, particularly those adapted to cooler temperatures at higher altitudes. We investigated how one such species, the water anole (Anolis aquaticus), is affected by temperature stress similar to that of a warming climate across a gradient of human-altered habitats at high elevation sites. We conducted a field survey on thermal traits and measured lizard critical thermal maxima across the sites. From the field survey, we found that (1) lizards from the least disturbed site and (2) operative temperature models of lizards placed in the least disturbed site had lower temperatures than those from sites with histories of human disturbance. Individuals from the least disturbed site also demonstrated greater tolerance to high temperatures than those from the more disturbed sites, in both their critical thermal maxima and the time spent at high temperatures prior to reaching critical thermal maxima. Our results demonstrate within-species variability in responses to high temperatures, depending on habitat type, and provide insight into how tropical reptiles may fare in a warming world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We sought to understand the role that water availability (expressed as an aridity index) plays in determining regional and global patterns of richness and evenness, and in turn how these water availability–diversity relationships may result in different richness–evenness relationships at regional and global scales. We examined relationships between water availability, richness and evenness for eight grassy biomes spanning broad water availability gradients on five continents. Our study found that relationships between richness and water availability switched from positive for drier (South Africa, Tibet and USA) vs. negative for wetter (India) biomes, though were not significant for the remaining biomes. In contrast, only the India biome showed a significant relationship between water availability and evenness, which was negative. Globally, the richness–water availability relationship was hump-shaped, however, not significant for evenness. At the regional scale, a positive richness–evenness relationship was found for grassy biomes in India and Inner Mongolia, China. In contrast, this relationship was weakly concave-up globally. These results suggest that different, independent factors are determining patterns of species richness and evenness in grassy biomes, resulting in differing richness–evenness relationships at regional and global scales. As a consequence, richness and evenness may respond very differently across spatial gradients to anthropogenic changes, such as climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Breeding animals trade off maximizing energy output to increase their number of offspring with conserving energy to ensure their own survival, leading to an energetic ceiling influenced by external, environmental factors or by internal, physiological factors. We examined whether internal or external factors limited energy expenditure by supplementally feeding breeding black-legged kittiwakes varying in individual quality, based on earlier work that defined late breeders as low-quality and early breeders as high-quality individuals. We tested whether energy expenditure increased when food availability decreased in both low- and high-quality birds; we predicted this would only occur in high-quality individuals capable of sustaining high levels of energy expenditure. Here, we find that food-supplemented birds expended less energy than control birds because they spent more time at the colony. However, foraging trips of food-supplemented birds were only slightly shorter than control birds, implying that food-supplemented birds were limited by food availability at sea similarly to control birds. Late breeders expended less energy, suggesting that low-quality individuals may not intake the energy necessary for sustaining high-energy output. Food-supplemented birds had more offspring than control birds, but offspring number did not influence energy expenditure, supporting the idea that the birds reached an energy ceiling. Males and lighter birds expended more energy, possibly compensating for relatively higher energy intake. Chick-rearing birds were working near their maximum, with highest levels of expenditure for early-laying (high-quality) individuals foraging at sea. Due to fluctuating marine environments, kittiwakes may be forced to change their foraging behaviors to maintain the balance between reproduction and survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global temperatures are increasing, affecting timing and availability of vegetation along with relationships between plants and their consumers. We examined the effect of population density, herd body condition in the previous year, elevation, plant productivity and phenology, snow, and winter onset on juvenile body mass in 63 semi-domesticated populations of Rangifer tarandus throughout Norway using spatiotemporal generalized additive models (GAMs) and varying coefficient models (VCMs). Optimal climate windows were calculated at both the regional and national level using a novel nonlinear climate window algorithm optimized for prediction. Spatial and temporal variation in effects of population and environmental predictors were considered using a model including covariates decomposed into spatial, temporal, and residual components. The performance of this decomposed model was compared to spatiotemporal GAMs and VCMs. The decomposed model provided the best fit and lowest prediction errors. A positive effect of herd body condition in the previous year explained most of the deviance in calf body mass, followed by a more complex effect of population density. A negative effect of timing of spring and positive effect of winter onset on juvenile body mass suggested that a snow free season was positive for juvenile body mass growth. Our findings suggest early spring onset and later winter permanent snow cover as reinforcers of early-life conditions which support more robust reindeer populations. Our methodological improvements for climate window analyses and effect size measures for decomposed variables provide important contributions to account for, measure, and interpret nonlinear relationships between climate and animal populations at large scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is pushing species ranges and abundances towards the poles and mountain tops. Although many studies have documented local altitudinal shifts, knowledge of general patterns at a large spatial scale, such as a whole mountain range, is scarce. From a conservation perspective, studying altitudinal shifts in wildlife is relevant because mountain regions often represent biodiversity hotspots and are among the most vulnerable ecosystems. Here, we examine whether altitudinal shifts in birds' abundances have occurred in the Scandinavian mountains over 13 years, and assess whether such shifts are related to species' traits. Using abundance data, we show a clear pattern of uphill shift in the mean altitude of bird abundance across the Scandinavian mountains, with an average speed of 0.9 m per year. Out of 76 species, 7 shifted significantly their abundance uphill. Altitudinal shift was strongly related to species' longevity: short-lived species showed more pronounced uphill shifts in abundance than long-lived species. The observed abundance shifts suggest that uphill shifts are not only driven by a small number of individuals at the range boundaries, but the overall bird abundances are on the move. Overall, the results underscore the wide-ranging impact of climate change and the potential vulnerability of species with slow life histories, as they appear less able to timely respond to rapidly changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although spatial variation in climate can directly affect the survival and reproduction of forest insects and the tree species compositions of forests, little is known about the indirect effects of climate on outbreaks of forest insects through its effects on forest composition. In this study, we use structural equation modeling to examine the direct and indirect effects of climate, water capacity of the soil, host tree density, and non-host density on the spatial extent of Lymantria dispar outbreaks in the Eastern USA over a period of 44 years (1975–2018). Host species were subdivided into four taxonomic and ecologically distinct groups: red oaks (Lobatae), white oaks (Lepidobalanus), other preferred hosts, and intermediate (less preferred) hosts. We found that mean annual temperature had stronger effects than mean annual precipitation on the spatial extent of outbreaks, and that indirect effects of temperature (via its effects on oak density) on defoliation were stronger than direct effects. The density of non-host trees increased with increasing precipitation and, consistent with the 'associational resistance hypothesis', defoliation decreased with increasing density of non-host trees. This study offers quantitative evidence that geographic variation in climate can indirectly affect outbreaks of a forest insect through its effects on tree species composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seabirds breeding in the high Arctic contend with variable annual sea ice conditions, with important consequences depending on a species' unique reproductive and foraging ecology. We assessed the influence of sea ice extent and phenology on seabird breeding biology using monitoring data collected for northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis), glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus), black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), and thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) breeding at Prince Leopold Island, Nunavut, Canada over 4 decades. We expected that years of later sea ice break-up and greater ice cover around the colony would create greater challenges to foraging and could result in delayed nest initiation, decreased colony attendance, and lower nesting success, but with distinct responses from each species. We also tested for time-lagged effects of ice conditions, where sea ice in a given year could impact food availability or juvenile recruitment in later years. Ice conditions around the colony exhibited no significant overall temporal trends or changepoints over the past 50 years (1970–2021), while counts of kittiwakes and murres increased over the study period 1975–2013. No trends were evident in counts of fulmars or gulls or in egg-laying dates or nest success for any species. However, three species (all but glaucous gulls) exhibited unique responses between breeding metrics and sea ice, highlighting how breeding decisions and outcomes may differ among species under the same environmental conditions in a given year. Time-lagged effects were only detected for kittiwake nest counts, where the date of spring ice break-up around the colony was negatively associated with counts at a 5-year lag. Greater distances to open water were associated with lower colony attendance by fulmars and later nest initiation by kittiwakes and murres. Our analyses provide additional insights to effects of sea ice on high-Arctic seabird breeding ecology, which will be useful in predicting and planning for the complex effects of a changing climate and changing human pressures on this high-latitude ecosystem and for the management of high-Arctic marine-protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the impacts of changing environments on phenotypes in wild populations remains a challenge. Growth, a trait that frequently influences fitness, is difficult to study as it is influenced by many environmental variables. To address this, we used a sliding window approach to determine the time windows when sea-surface and air temperatures have the potential to affect growth of black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) on a colony in the Northeast Pacific. We examined environmental drivers influencing nestling growth using data from a long-term (21-year) study, that food supplements a portion of the colony. The associations between kittiwake growth and climatic conditions in our study indicated that warmer environmental conditions can both positively and negatively impact nestling growth parameters depending on hatching order. We found that first-hatched nestlings had a heavier maximum mass under warm air temperatures and cold sea conditions. Warmer air temperatures negatively affected the second-hatched nestling in a brood. However, when air temperatures were warm, warmer sea-surface temperatures predicted heavy, fast-growing second-hatched nestlings in contrast to what we observed for first-hatched nestlings. Food supplementation alleviated the temperature effects, and competition among nestlings influenced how strongly a variable affected growth. We identified windows that might indicate specific biological pathways through which environmental variation affected growth directly or indirectly. Overall, our windows suggest that nestlings in shared nests will be most affected by warming conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal forest is one of the world's ecosystems most affected by global climate warming. The snowshoe hare, its predators, and their population dynamics dominate the mammalian component of the North American boreal forest. Our past research has shown the 9–11-year hare cycle to be predator driven, both directly as virtually all hares that die are killed by their predators, and indirectly through sublethal risk effects on hare stress physiology, behavior, and reproduction. We replicated this research over the entire cycle by measuring changes in predation risk expected to drive changes in chronic stress. We examined changes in hare condition and stress axis function using a hormonal challenge protocol in the late winter of 7 years—spanning all phases of the cycle from the increase through to the low (2014–2020). We simultaneously monitored changes in hare abundance as well as those of their primary predators, lynx and coyotes. Despite observing the expected changes in hare–predator numbers over the cycle, we did not see the predicted changes in chronic stress metrics in the peak and decline phases. Thus, the comprehensive physiological signature indicative of chronic predator-induced stress seen from our previous work was not present in this current cycle. We postulate that hares may now be increasingly showing behavior-mediated rather than stress-mediated responses to their predators. We present evidence that increases in primary productivity have affected boreal community structure and function. We speculate that climate change has caused this major shift in the indirect effects of predation on hares. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, climate change has disrupted forest functioning by promoting large-scale mortality events, declines in productivity and reduced regeneration. Understanding the temporal dynamics and spatial extent of these changes is critical given the essential ecosystem services provided by forests. As the most widespread tree species in North America, quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) is well suited for studying the dynamics of tree populations during a period of unprecedented climate change. Synthesizing continent-wide data, we show that mortality rates of mature aspen stems have increased over the past two-to-three decades, while relative gains in aspen basal area have decreased during the same period. Patterns were pervasive across multiple stand size classes and composition types in western North America biomes, suggesting that trends in demographic rates were not simply a reflection of stand development and succession. Our review of the literature revealed that increased aspen mortality and reduced growth rates were most often associated with hotter, drier conditions, whereas reduced recruitment was most often associated with herbivory. Furthermore, interactions between climate and competition, as well as climate and insect herbivory, had important, context-dependent effects on mortality and growth, respectively. Our analyses of aspen across its entire geographic range indicate that this important tree species is experiencing substantial increases in mortality and decreases in population growth rates across multiple biomes. If such trends are not accompanied by increased recruitment, we expect that the reduced dominance of aspen in forests will lead to major declines in the many essential ecosystem services it provides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species range limits often reflect niche limits, especially for ranges constrained along elevational gradients. In this study, we used elevational transplant experiments to test niche breadth and functional trait plasticity in early life stages of narrow-range Nabalus boottii and broad-range N. trifoliolatus plants to assess their climate change vulnerability and the applicability of the niche breadth-range size hypothesis to explain their range size differences. We discovered that the earliest life stage (seed germination) was the most vulnerable and the two alpine taxa, N. boottii and N. trifoliolatus var. nanus, were unable to establish at the warm low elevation site, however non-alpine N. trifoliolatus established at all three elevations, including at the high elevation (beyond-range) site. Niche limits in seed emergence may therefore contribute to range size in these taxa. In contrast, when seedlings were planted we found substantial functional trait plasticity in later life stages (average 44% across ten traits) that was highly similar for all Nabalus taxa, suggesting that differences in plasticity do not generate niche differences or restrict range size in the focal taxa. While this substantial plasticity may help buffer populations faced by climate change, the inability of the alpine taxa to establish at lower elevation sites suggests that their populations may still decline due to decreased seed recruitment under ongoing climate change. We therefore recommend monitoring alpine Nabalus populations, particularly globally rare N. boottii. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental and dispersal filters are key determinants of species distributions of Amazonian tree communities. However, a comprehensive analysis of the role of environmental and dispersal filters is needed to understand the ecological and evolutionary processes that drive phylogenetic and taxonomic turnover of Amazonian tree communities. We compare measures of taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity in 41 one-hectare plots to test the relative importance of climate, soils, geology, geomorphology, pure spatial variables and the spatial variation of environmental drivers of phylogenetic and taxonomic turnover in Ecuadorian Amazon tree communities. We found low phylogenetic and high taxonomic turnover with respect to environmental and dispersal filters. In addition, our results suggest that climate is a significantly better predictor of phylogenetic turnover and taxonomic turnover than geomorphology and soils at all spatial scales. The influence of climate as a predictor of phylogenetic turnover was stronger at broader spatial scales (50 km2) whereas geomorphology and soils appear to be better predictors of taxonomic turnover at mid (5 km2) and fine spatial scales (0.5 km2) but a weak predictor of phylogenetic turnover at broad spatial scales. We also found that the combined effect of geomorphology and soils was significantly higher for taxonomic turnover at all spatial scales but not for phylogenetic turnover at large spatial scales. Geographic distances as proxy of dispersal limitation was a better predictor of phylogenetic turnover at distances of 50 < 500 km. Our findings suggest that climatic variation at regional scales can better predict phylogenetic and taxonomic turnover than geomorphology and soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Provenance translocations of tree species are promoted in forestry, conservation, and restoration in response to global climate change. While this option is driven by adaptive considerations, less is known of the effects translocations can have on dependent communities. We investigated the relative importance and consistency of extended genetic effects in Eucalyptus using two species—E. globulus and E. pauciflora. In E. globulus, the dependent arthropod and pathogen canopy communities were quantified based on the abundance of 49 symptoms from 722 progeny from 13 geographic sub-races across 2 common gardens. For E. pauciflora, 6 symptoms were quantified over 2 years from 238 progeny from 16 provenances across 2 common gardens. Genetic effects significantly influenced communities in both species. However, site and year effects outweighed genetic effects with site explaining approximately 3 times the variation in community traits in E. globulus and site and year explaining approximately 6 times the variation in E. pauciflora. While the genetic effect interaction terms were significant in some community traits, broad trends in community traits associated with variation in home-site latitude for E. globulus and home-site altitude for E. pauciflora were evident. These broad-scale trends were consistent with patterns of adaptive differentiation within each species, suggesting there may be extended consequences of local adaptation. While small in comparison to site and year, the consistency of genetic effects highlights the importance of provenance choice in tree species, such as Eucalyptus, as adaptive divergence among provenances may have significant long-term effects on biotic communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing intensity and frequency of droughts predicted for the Mediterranean basin with ongoing climate change will impact plant communities and ecosystem functioning. This study investigated the effect of severe recurrent droughts and the role of the neighbor plant identity on the growth and survival of three abundant and co-existing species of a typical Mediterranean shrubland. Two juvenile plants, either of the same species or in all possible combinations of the two woody species Quercus coccifera and Cistus albidus and the perennial grass species Brachypodium retusum were grown together in rhizotrons under controlled watering regimes for two years. Compared to a treatment with only one drought cycle, three successive droughts reduced the relative growth rates (RGR) of shoots and roots in B. retusum, but not in woody species, and increased the mortality of the woody species, but not that of the grass. The survival of C. albidus and of B. retusum, but not of Q. coccifera, increased when the neighbor individual was a different species than when it was the same species. Our data suggest that both species composition and frequency of drought events will impact the dynamics of plant communities in Mediterranean shrublands under ongoing climate change. The abundance of dehydration sensitive woody species will likely decrease under more frequent drought events at the expense of dehydration-tolerant grass species, resulting in potentially strong changes in the functioning of these ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global reduction in snow cover duration is one of the most consistent and widespread climate change outcomes. Declining snow duration has severe negative consequences for diverse taxa including seasonally color molting species, which rely on snow for camouflage. However, phenotypic plasticity may facilitate adaptation to reduced snow duration. Plastic responses could occur in the color molt phenology or through behavior that minimizes coat color mismatch or its consequences. We quantified molt phenology of 200 wild snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), and measured microhabitat choice and local snow cover. Similar to other studies, we found that hares did not show behavioral plasticity to minimize coat color mismatch via background matching; instead they preferred colder, snow free areas regardless of their coat color. Furthermore, hares did not behaviorally mitigate the negative consequences of mismatch by choosing resting sites with denser vegetation cover when mismatched. Importantly, we demonstrated plasticity in the initiation and the rate of the molt and established the direct effect of snow on molt phenology; greater snow cover was associated with whiter hares and this association was not due to whiter hares preferring snowier areas. However, despite the observed snow-mediated plasticity in molt phenology, camouflage mismatch with white hares on brown snowless ground persisted and was more frequent during early snowmelt. Thus, we find no evidence that phenotypic plasticity in snowshoe hares is sufficient to facilitate adaptive rescue to camouflage mismatch under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests in the western United States are being subject to more frequent and severe drought events as the climate warms. The 2012–2015 California drought is a recent example, whereby drought stress was exacerbated by a landscape-scale outbreak of western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis) and resulted in widespread mortality of dominant canopy species including ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). In this study, we compared pairs of large surviving and beetle-killed ponderosa pines following the California drought in the southern Sierra Nevadas to evaluate physiological characteristics related to survival. Inter-annual growth rates and tree-ring stable isotopes (∆13C and δ18O) were utilized to compare severity of drought stress and climate sensitivity in ponderosa pines that survived and those that were killed by western pine beetle. Compared to beetle-killed trees, surviving trees had higher growth rates and grew in plots with lower ponderosa pine basal area. However, there were no detectable differences in tree-ring ∆13C, δ18O, or stable isotope sensitivity to drought-related meteorological variables. These results indicate that differences in severity of drought stress had little influence on local, inter-tree differences in growth rate and survival of large ponderosa pines during this drought event. Many previous studies have shown that large trees are more likely to be attacked and killed by bark beetles compared to small trees. Our results further suggest that among large ponderosa pines, those that were more resistant to drought stress and bark beetle attacks were in the upper echelon of growth rates among trees within a stand and across the landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant parasitic nematodes are among the greatest consumers of primary production in terrestrial ecosystems. Their feeding strategies can be divided into endoparasites and ectoparasites that differ substantially, not only in their damage potential to host tissue and primary production, but also in their susceptibility to environmental changes. Climate change is predicted to increase variability of precipitation in many systems, yet the effects on belowground biodiversity and associated impacts on primary productivity remain poorly understood. To examine the impact of altered precipitation on endo- and ectoparasitic soil nematodes, we conducted a 2-year precipitation manipulation study across an arid, a semiarid, and a mesic grassland. Plant parasite feeding type abundance, functional guilds, and herbivory index in response to precipitation were evaluated. Responses of endo- and ectoparasites to increased precipitation varied by grassland type. There was little response of ectoparasites to increased precipitation although their population declined at the mesic site with increased precipitation. The abundance of endoparasites remained unchanged with increasing precipitation at the arid site, increased at the semiarid, and decreased at the mesic site. The herbivory index followed closely the trends seen in the endoparasites response by stagnating at the arid site, increasing at the semiarid, and decreasing at the mesic site. Our findings suggest that altered precipitation has differing effects on plant parasite feeding strategies as well as functional guilds. This may have important implications for grassland productivity, as plant parasite pressure may exacerbate the effects of climate change on host plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models predict increasing amounts of precipitation and relative atmospheric humidity for high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, tree species must adjust to the new climatic conditions. We studied young silver birches (Betula pendula Roth) in a long-term (2012–2018) free air humidity manipulation experiment, with the aim of clarifying the acclimation mechanisms to elevated relative atmospheric humidity. In 2016–2018, stem radial increment (measured by dendrometers) and leaf abscission were monitored, and the leaf N and P resorption efficiencies were determined. Biomass allocation was estimated, and the seasonal dynamics of foliar NPK storage was assessed. Humidification increased N resorption efficiency by 11%. The annual means of N resorption efficiency varied from 41 to 52% in control and from 50 to 59% in humidified stands. The P resorption efficiency was strongly affected by weather conditions and varied between years from 25 to 66%. Higher foliar NPK storages at the end of growing season and delayed leaf fall allowed to extend the growth period in humidified plots, which resulted in a week longer stem radial growth. Although stem diameter growth of humidified birches recovered after 5 years, tree height retardation persisted over the seven study years, resulting in increased stem taper (diameter to height ratio) under humidification. Additionally, humidification increased the share of the bark in stem biomass and the number of branches per crown length. The acclimation of silver birches to increased air humidity entails changes in forest N cycle and in birch timber quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration increases the performance of invasive plants relative to natives when grown in monoculture, but it is unclear how that will affect the relative competitive abilities per se of invasive and native grasses grown together. We tested competitive outcomes for four native and four invasive perennial C3 and C4 grasses under ambient (390 ppm) and elevated (700 or 1000 ppm) CO2 concentrations in the greenhouse with non-limiting water and nutrients. We predicted that elevated CO2 would increase the competitive suppression of native grasses by invasive grasses. To test this, we determined the relative interaction intensity of biomass allocation for natives grown alone vs. those grown in native–invasive species pairs. We also measured photosynthetic traits that contribute to plant invasiveness and may be affected by elevated CO2 concentrations for species pairs in mixture to determine native–invasive relative performance. We found no effect of CO2 for the aboveground biomass and tiller production measures of interaction intensity or for relative performance for most of the measured photosynthetic traits. In competition, the invaders nearly always outperform natives in biomass and tiller production, regardless of CO2 level. The results suggest that increasing CO2 concentration alone has little effect on grass competitive outcomes under controlled conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biotic and abiotic factors may individually or interactively disrupt plant–pollinator interactions, influencing plant fitness. Although variations in temperature and precipitation are expected to modify the overall impact of predators on plant–pollinator interactions, few empirical studies have assessed if these weather conditions influence anti-predator behaviors and how this context-dependent response may cascade down to plant fitness. To answer this question, we manipulated predation risk (using artificial spiders) in different years to investigate how natural variation in temperature and precipitation may affect diversity (richness and composition) and behavioral (visitation) responses of flower-visiting insects to predation risk, and how these effects influence plant fitness. Our findings indicate that predation risk and an increase in precipitation independently reduced plant fitness (i.e., seed set) by decreasing flower visitation. Predation risk reduced pollinator visitation and richness, and altered species composition of pollinators. Additionally, an increase in precipitation was associated with lower flower visitation and pollinator richness but did not alter pollinator species composition. However, maximum daily temperature did not affect any component of the pollinator assemblage or plant fitness. Our results indicate that biotic and abiotic drivers have different impacts on pollinator behavior and diversity with consequences for plant fitness components. Even small variation in precipitation conditions promotes complex and substantial cascading effects on plants by affecting both pollinator communities and the outcome of plant–pollinator interactions. Tropical communities are expected to be highly susceptible to climatic changes, and these changes may have drastic consequences for biotic interactions in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population projections coupled with downscaled climate projections are a powerful tool that allows predicting future population dynamics of vulnerable plants in the face of a changing climate. Traditional approaches used to predict the vulnerability of plants to climate change (e.g. species distribution models) fail to mechanistically describe the basis of a population's dynamics and thus cannot be expected to correctly predict its temporal trends. In this study, we used a 23-year demographic dataset of the acuña cactus, an endangered species, to predict its population dynamics to the end of the century. We used integral projection models to describe its vital rates and population dynamics in relation to plant volume and key climatic variables. We used the resulting climate-driven IPM along with climatic projections to predict the population growth rates from 1991 to 2099. We found the average population growth rate of this population between 1991 and 2013 to be 0.70 (95% CI 0.61–0.79). This result confirms that the population of acuña cactus has been declining and that this decline is due to demographic structure and climate conditions. However, the projection model also predicts that, up to 2080, the population will remain relatively stable mainly due to the survival of its existing adult individuals. Notwithstanding, the long-term viability of the populations can only be achieved through the recruitment of new individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adaptive value of correlations among phenotypic traits depends on the prevailing environmental conditions. Differences in selection pressures during species range expansions may therefore shape phenotypic integration. In this study, we assessed variation in behavioral and morphological traits, as well as their covariations, in replicated southern and northern European populations of the northward expanding dragonfly Crocothemis erythraea. Larvae from northern populations were, on average, darker in color, and therefore, better camouflaged than larvae from southern populations. However, there was no difference in activity level. Darkness and activity were positively correlated in larvae from northern populations, whereas this trait covariation was missing in southern populations. This suggests the emergence of alternative strategies in time-limited northern populations, a higher activity level that required better camouflage through darker coloration, while less active larvae benefited from an energy-saving strategy by reducing the investment in costly traits, such as body darkness. We further found that larger larvae emerged into larger adults, with a higher investment in flight morphology. Our findings imply that phenotypic integration is associated with the northward range shift, potentially differentially shaping fitness consequences, and ecological interactions in southern versus northern populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drylands are predicted to become more arid and saline due to increasing global temperature and drought. Although species from the Caatinga, a Brazilian tropical dry forest, are tolerant to these conditions, the capacity for germination to withstand extreme soil temperature and water deficit associated with climate change remains to be quantified. We aimed to evaluate how germination will be affected under future climate change scenarios of limited water and increased temperature. Seeds of three species were germinated at different temperatures and osmotic potentials. Thermal time and hydrotime model parameters were established and thresholds for germination calculated. Germination performance in 2055 was predicted, by combining temperature and osmotic/salt stress thresholds, considering soil temperature and moisture following rainfall events. The most pessimistic climate scenario predicts an increase of 3.9 °C in soil temperature and 30% decrease in rainfall. Under this scenario, soil temperature is never lower than the minimum and seldomly higher than maximum temperature thresholds for germination. As long as the soil moisture (0.139 cm3 cm3) requirements are met, germination can be achieved in 1 day. According to the base water potential and soil characteristics, the minimum weekly rainfall for germination is estimated to be 17.5 mm. Currently, the required minimum rainfall occurs in 14 weeks of the year but will be reduced to 4 weeks by 2055. This may not be sufficient for seedling recruitment of some species in the natural environment. Thus, in future climate scenarios, rainfall rather than temperature will be extremely limiting for seed germination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autumn canopy phenological transitions are increasing in length as a consequence of climate change. Here, we assess how well hyperspectral indices in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths predict nitrogen (N) concentrations in lower-canopy leaves in the autumn phenological transition as they are generally understudied in leaf trait research. Using a Bayesian framework, we tested how well published indices are able to predict N concentrations in Fagus grandifolia Ehrh., Liriodendron tulipifera L., and Betula lenta L. from mid-summer through senescence, and how related the indices are to autumn phenological change. No indices were able to determine a trend in differences in N in mid-summer leaves. Indices that included wavelengths in the green and NIR ranges were the first indices able to detect a trend and had among the highest correlations with N concentration in both the last green collection and the senescing collection. Models were unique when indices were fit to data from different phenophases. Indices that focused on only the red edge (i.e., the sharp increase in reflectance between the red and NIR wavelengths) had the strongest explanatory power across the autumn phenological transition, but had less explanatory power for individual collections. These indices, as well as those that have been correlated with chlorophyll (CCI) and carotenoids (PRI), were the strongest descriptors of autumn progression. This study provides insights on challenges and capabilities to monitor a leaf's N concentration throughout and across canopy senescence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global phenomenon of mangrove encroachment into saltmarshes has been observed across five continents. It has been proposed that this encroachment is driven in part by rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and reduced salinity in saltmarshes resulting from rising sea levels enhancing the establishment success of mangrove seedlings. However, this theory is yet to be empirically tested at the community-level. In this study, we examined the effect of CO2 and salinity on seedling growth of two mangrove species, Aegiceras corniculatum and Avicennia marina, grown individually and in a model saltmarsh community in a glasshouse experiment. We found that the shoot (210%) and root (91%) biomass of the saltmarsh species was significantly greater under elevated CO2. As a result, both mangrove species experienced a stronger competitive effect from the saltmarsh species under elevated CO2. Nevertheless, A. marina seedlings produced on average 48% more biomass under elevated CO2 when grown in competition with the saltmarsh species. The seedlings tended to allocate this additional biomass to growing taller suggesting they were light limited. In contrast, A. corniculatum growth did not significantly differ between CO2 treatments. However, it had on average 36% greater growth under seawater salinity compared to hypersaline conditions. Avicennia marina seedlings were not affected by salinity. From these results, we suggest that although CO2 and salinity are not universal drivers determining saltmarsh–mangrove boundaries, it is likely that rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and reduced salinity associated with sea level rise will enhance the establishment success of mangrove seedlings in saltmarshes, which may facilitate mangrove encroachment in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic conditions, trophic links between species and dispersal may induce spatial synchrony in population fluctuations. Spatial synchrony increases the extinction risk of populations and, thus, it is important to understand how synchrony-inducing mechanisms affect populations already threatened by habitat loss and climate change. For many species, it is unclear how population fluctuations vary over time and space, and what factors potentially drive this variation. In this study, we focus on factors determining population fluctuations and spatial synchrony in the Siberian flying squirrel, Pteromys volans, using long-term monitoring data from 16 Finnish populations located 2–400 km apart. We found an indication of synchronous population dynamics on a large scale in flying squirrels. However, the synchrony was not found to be clearly related to distance between study sites because the populations seemed to be strongly affected by small-scale local factors. The regularity of population fluctuations varied over time. The fluctuations were linked to changes in winter precipitation, which has previously been linked to the reproductive success of flying squirrels. Food abundance (tree mast) and predator abundance were not related to population fluctuations in this study. We conclude that spatial synchrony was not unequivocally related to distance in flying squirrels, as has been observed in earlier studies for more abundant rodent species. Our study also emphasises the role of climate in population fluctuations and the synchrony of the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The functional composition of plant communities is a critical modulator of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but it is not a simple function of regional climate. In the Arctic tundra, where climate change is proceeding the most rapidly, communities have not shifted their trait composition as predicted by spatial temperature–trait relationships. Important causal pathways are thus missing from models of trait composition change. Here, we study causes of plant community functional variation in an oroarctic tundra landscape in Kilpisjärvi, Finland. We consider the community-weighted means of plant vegetative height, as well as two traits related to the leaf economic spectrum. Specifically, we model their responses to locally measured summer air temperature, snow conditions, and soil resource levels. For each of the traits, we also quantify the importance of intraspecific trait variation (ITV) for between-community functional differences and trait–environment matching. Our study shows that in a tundra landscape (1) snow is the most influential abiotic variable affecting functional composition, (2) vegetation height is under weak local environmental control, whereas leaf economics is under strong local environmental control, (3) the relative magnitude of ITV differs between traits, and (4) ITV is not very consequential for community-level trait–environment relationships. Our analyses highlight the importance of winter conditions for community functional composition in seasonal areas. We show that winter climate change can either amplify or counter the effects summer warming, depending on the trait. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has been altering the ocean environment, affecting as a consequence the biological communities including microorganisms. We performed a mesocosm experiment to test whether biodiversity loss caused by one stressor would influence plankton community sensitivity to a subsequent stressor, as envisioned in Vinebrooke's multiple stressor concept. A natural Baltic Sea diatom-dominated phytoplankton assemblage was used as a model system where we examined whether a preceding heat shock would affect the community's response to changing salinity. Initially, the community was treated by a short-term temperature increase of 6 °C, which resulted in a loss of species compared to the control. Thereafter, the control and the heat-shocked communities were subject to a salinity change (− 5 psu, control, + 5 psu). The species Skeletonema dohrnii, Thalassiosira anguste-lineata, Thalassiosira nordenskioeldii, Chaetoceros socialis and Ditylum brightwellii were major components of the control and heat-shocked assemblages (> 80% of the total biomass). We examined the effect on species composition and biodiversity (morphospecies and operational taxonomic units (OTUs) related to phytoplankton) and on phytoplankton biomass. In addition, we explored the single species response of five dominant diatoms on these environmental perturbations. Our results showed that increased salinity significantly reduced the OTUs richness both in the control and the less diverse heated community as well as the phytoplankton biomass in the heated community. On the other hand, decreased salinity significantly increased species richness and phytoplankton biomass in both communities and OTUs richness in the control community. The five dominant diatoms reached their highest biomass under decreased salinity and responded negatively to increased salinity (lower biomass than ambient salinity). Contrary to Vinebrooke's multiple stressor concept, there was no indication that the heat treatment had altered the community's sensitivity to the salinity stress in our study system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate models predict more frequent periods of drought stress alternated by heavier, but fewer rainfall events in the future. Biodiversity studies have shown that such changed drought stress may be mitigated by plant species richness. Here, we investigate if grassland communities, differing in species richness, respond differently to climatic extremes within the growing season. In a 3-year outdoor mesocosm experiment, four grassland species in both monoculture and mixture were subjected to a rainfall distribution regime with two levels: periods of severe drought in the summer intermitted by extreme rainfall events versus regular rainfall over time. Both treatments received the same amount of water over the season. Extreme rainfall combined with drought periods resulted in a 15% decrease in aboveground biomass in the second and third year, compared to the regular rainfall regime. Root biomass was also reduced in the extreme rainfall treatment, particularly in the top soil layer (− 40%). All species developed higher water use efficiencies (less negative leaf δ13C) in extreme rainfall than in regular rainfall. These responses to the rainfall/drought treatment were independent of species richness, although the mixtures were on an average more productive in terms of biomass than the monocultures. Our experimental results suggest that mixtures are similarly able to buffer these within-season rainfall extremes than monocultures, which contrasts with findings in the studies on natural droughts. Our work demonstrates the importance of investigating the interactions between rainfall distribution and drought periods for understanding effects of climate change on plant community performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is affecting both the volume and distribution of precipitation, which in turn is expected to affect the growth and reproduction of plant populations. The near ubiquity of local adaptation suggests that adaptive differentiation may have important consequences for how populations are affected by and respond to changing precipitation. Here, we manipulated rainfall in a common garden to examine how differentiation among populations of common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia (Asteraceae) affects responses to water availability expected under climate change. We collected seeds from 26 populations along gradients of historical rainfall and used event-based rainout shelters and watering additions to simulate drier summer conditions and more extreme rainfall events, respectively. Ambrosia artemisiifolia had higher fitness on average under reduced rainfall, suggesting it may spread and become more abundant in areas projected to become hotter and drier during the summer months. We also found strong evidence for phenotypic and fitness clines across both latitude and longitude, and that phenological responses and fitness effects of altered rainfall depended on seed source or historical climate. The effect of rainfall treatment on female fitness was highest in western and mid longitudes, but there was little effect on eastern populations. Across latitude, the effect of rainfall treatment on male fitness was highest in southern populations. These phenology and fitness clines suggest that adaptive differentiation across the species' range has the potential to shape future responses of A. artemisiifolia populations to climate change, particularly altered patterns of rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing temperatures can drive changes in the distribution and abundance of insects. The time of year when warming occurs (e.g., spring vs. autumn) may disparately influence the phenology of herbivorous insects and their host plants. We investigated the role of changing phenology in recent outbreaks of larch casebearer, an invasive defoliator of eastern larch in North America. We quantified degree-days required for eastern larch to break bud and larch casebearer to develop through each life stage from the onset of development in spring to autumnal dormancy. We developed degree-day models to reconstruct (1) spring phenological synchrony and (2) cumulative proportion of larvae reaching the overwintering stage based on historical climate data. The consequences of warmer autumns and winters (i.e., pre-spring warming) for the incidence and timing of spring activation of larvae were also investigated. Our results suggested that no significant changes have occurred in spring phenological synchrony, but the estimated proportions of larvae reaching the overwintering stage have significantly increased through time. Autumnal warming resulted in delayed spring activation, suggesting that warmer temperatures may act antagonistically on casebearer development, depending on time of year and intensity of warming. Our results provide evidence that increases in annual degree-day accumulation may have helped facilitate recent outbreaks of this invasive defoliator in North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased levels of dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) drive ocean acidification and have been predicted to increase the energy use of marine fishes via physiological and behavioural mechanisms. This notion is based on a theoretical framework suggesting that detrimental effects on energy use are caused by plasma acid–base disruption in response to hypercapnic acidosis, potentially in combination with a malfunction of the gamma aminobutyric acid type A (GABAA) receptors in the brain. However, the existing empirical evidence testing these effects primarily stems from studies that exposed fish to elevated CO2 for a few days and measured a small number of traits. We investigated a range of energetic traits in juvenile spiny chromis damselfish (Acanthochromis polyacanthus) over 3 months of acclimation to projected end-of-century CO2 levels (~ 1000 µatm). Somatic growth and otolith size and shape were unaffected by the CO2 treatment across 3 months of development in comparison with control fish (~ 420 µatm). Swimming activity during behavioural assays was initially higher in the elevated CO2 group, but this effect dissipated within ~ 25 min following handling. The transient higher activity of fish under elevated CO2 was not associated with a detectable difference in the rate of oxygen uptake nor was it mediated by GABAA neurotransmitter interference because treatment with a GABAA antagonist (gabazine) did not abolish the CO2 treatment effect. These findings contrast with several short-term studies by suggesting that end-of-century levels of CO2 may have negligible direct effects on the energetics of at least some species of fish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global phenomenon that influences climate variation and, in turn, the ecological processes affecting the abundance and distribution of populations across taxa. For example, the ENSO can profoundly influence the development and survival of pelagic species, but the extent to which the ENSO affects offspring of terrestrial species is less well known. We used piecewise structural equation modeling to investigate the direct and indirect relationship between the ENSO and offspring development and survival in a terrestrial tropical passerine, the lance-tailed manakin (Chiroxiphia lanceolata). The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), a measure of the ENSO, was negatively related to individual growth rate, maximum number of lesion developed by nestlings, and hatching day-of-year; which in turn mediated indirect effects on fledging success and recruitment. Further the ONI was a better predictor of nestling development compared to local temperature and rainfall. Our study establishes a link between the ENSO and the development and survival of young of a terrestrial species and underscores the need to better understand how offspring cope with global climate variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the roles of vegetation structure, micro-topographic relief, and predator activity patterns (time of day) on the perception of predatory risk of arctic ground squirrels (Urocitellus parryii), an abundant pan-Arctic omnivore, in Arctic Circle tundra on the North Slope of Alaska, where tundra vegetation structure has been predicted to change in response to climate. We quantified foraging intensity by measuring the giving-up densities (GUDs) of the arctic ground squirrels in experimental foraging patches along a heath–graminoid–shrub moist tundra gradient. We hypothesized that foraging intensity of arctic ground squirrels would be greatest and GUDs lowest, where low-stature vegetation or raised micro-topography improves sightlines for predator detection. Furthermore, GUDs should vary with time of day and reflect 24-h cycles of varying predation risk. Foraging intensity varied temporally, being highest in the afternoon and lowest overnight. During the morning, foraging intensity was inversely correlated with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a proxy for vegetation productivity and cover. Foraging was additionally measured within landscapes of fear, confirming that vegetative and topographic obstructions of sightlines reduces foraging intensity and increases GUDs. We conclude that arctic ground squirrels may affect Arctic Circle vegetation of tundra ecosystems, but these effects will vary spatially and temporally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two-current choice flumes are used to measure preference and avoidance behaviour in response to chemical cues in aquatic animals. If used correctly, they produce two parallel, non-overlapping, laminar water currents in which the animal can move freely and choose between the two currents. As climate change is affecting water temperature, and altered precipitation patterns are changing water salinity, two-current choice flumes are increasingly being used to test the choice between water currents of different temperatures and salinities. This inevitably means that water currents of different densities are being used simultaneously in the flume. Here, we investigated the tolerance range for density differences due to temperature and salinity in five common flume designs. Through dye tests and stepwise modifications of temperatures and salinities we determined the limits for laminar and non-overlapping flows. We also developed an automated method for quantifying the overlap precisely and objectively. The tolerance for density differences between the water currents where laminar and non-overlapping flows were maintained was surprisingly low, withstanding ± 0.5 °C temperature differences, and ± 0.1 PSU salinity differences, i.e. a maximum density difference of 0.28 gL−1. Above these very narrow limits we found a range where the flumes showed partly overlapping, stratified water currents that preclude easy determination of cue preference. We conclude that two-current choice flumes are not suitable for testing the behavioural choices of aquatic animals using water currents of anything other than minor differences in temperature and/or salinity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasingly frequent warm periods during winter, which are associated with climate change, may cause mismatches between the colony phenology of the western honey bee, Apis mellifera L., and their floral resources. Warmer winter periods can also affect colony brood rearing activity and consequently the reproduction of the invasive brood parasite Varroa destructor Anderson and Trueman. Until now little is known about the effects of climate change on biotic interactions in such a multitrophic system comprising flowering plants, a pollinator, and its parasite. We performed a reciprocal translocation experiment with honey bee colonies to simulate climate change-induced phenology shifts. Honey bee brood phenology was highly sensitive to environmental conditions in late winter. Colonies in which phenology was experimentally delayed had smaller worker populations in early spring and reduced amounts of stored honey during the following months. During summer, the varroa load in colonies with non-shifted phenology was three times higher than in colonies with delayed phenology. High varroa loads during summer were negatively correlated with worker population growth. Despite a remarkable resilience of colony development to phenology shifts, our results show that mismatches between the phenology of honey bee colonies and flowering plants can affect the build-up of resource stores. Further, an advanced onset of brood rearing activity after hibernation can reinforce the negative impact of the brood parasite V. destructor. We conclude that trade-offs between synchronisation with earlier flower phenology and prolonged brood phases with build-up of varroa populations might constrain the honey bees' capability to adapt to climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change appears to affect body size of animals whose optimal size in part depends on temperature. However, attribution of observed body size changes to climate change requires an understanding of the selective pressures acting on body size under different temperatures. We examined the link between temperature and body mass in a population of mountain wagtails (Motacilla clara) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, between 1976 and 1999, where temperature increased by 0.18 ∘C. The wagtails became lighter by 0.035 g per year. Partitioning this trend, we found that only a small part of the effect (0.009 g/year) was due to individuals losing weight and a large part (0.027 g/year) was due to lighter individuals replacing heavier ones. Only the latter component was statistically significant. Apparently, the wagtails were reacting to selection for reduced weight. Examining survival, we found that selection was temperature-mediated, i.e., lighter individuals survived better under high temperatures, whereas heavier individuals survived better under low temperatures. Our results thus support the hypothesis that temperature drove the decline in body mass in this wagtail population and provides one of the first demonstrations of the selective forces underlying such trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elevational gradients are a powerful tool to investigate how abiotic factors affect ecosystems and to predict the possible consequences of climate change. Here, we investigated the assemblage-level responses of seed size, ant worker size, and rates of seed removal by ants along a 1700 m elevational gradient in Mediterranean grasslands of central Spain, taking into account abiotic factors and interactions between biotic variables. Our results showed that both seed size and ant size decreased with elevation. Structural equation models linking abiotic factors and biotic variables were built to describe these patterns. Two equally plausible models were selected, both based on temperature. In the first model, temperature directly affected seed size and granivorous ant size, and indirectly affected ant size (of both granivorous and non-granivorous species) through a bottom-up pathway. The second model included the direct effects of temperature on ant size and granivorous ant size, and indirect effects on seed size through a top-down pathway. In this model, the link between granivorous ant size and seed size was positive. Seed removal rates decreased with elevation and seed size, with smaller seeds being preferred with increasing elevation. Taken together, our results indicate that the observed patterns of ant size and seed size are ultimately controlled by abiotic factors, although the system is more satisfactorily explained if seed-ant interactions are incorporated into the models. We expect that climate change will have strong effects on this system, including mismatches between consumers and producers potentially altering the interspecific relationships among ants and plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is widely accepted to be one of the greatest threats to species globally. Identifying the species most at risk is, therefore, a conservation priority. Some species have the capacity to adapt to rising temperatures through changing their phenology, behavior, distribution, or physiology, and, therefore, may be more likely to persist under rising temperatures. Recent findings suggest that the African wild dog Lycaon pictus may be impacted by climate change, since reproductive success is consistently lower when pup-rearing coincides with periods of high ambient temperature. We used GPS collars, combined with generalized linear mixed-effects models, to assess wild dogs' potential to adapt to high ambient temperatures through flexible timing of hunting behavior. On days with higher maximum temperatures, wild dogs showed lower daytime activity and greater nocturnal activity, although nocturnal activity did not fully balance the decrease in daytime activity, particularly during the denning period. Increases in nocturnal activity were confined mainly to moonlit nights, and were seldom observed when packs were raising pups. Our findings suggest that nocturnal activity helps this cursorial hunter to cope with high daytime temperatures. However, wild dogs appear not to use this coping strategy when they are raising pups, suggesting that their resource needs may not be fulfilled during the pup-rearing period. Given that moonlight availability—which will not change as the climate changes—constrains wild dogs' nocturnal activity, the species may have insufficient behavioral plasticity to mitigate increasing diurnal temperatures. These findings raise concerns about climate change impacts on this endangered species, and highlight the need for behavior to be considered when assessing species' vulnerability to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems in the southwestern U.S. are predicted to experience continued warming and drying trends of the early twenty-first century. Climate change can shift the balance between grass and woody plant abundance in these water-limited systems, which has large implications for biodiversity and ecosystem processes. However, variability in topo-edaphic conditions, notably soil texture and depth, confound efforts to quantify specific climatic controls over grass vs. shrub dominance. Here, we utilized weather records and a mechanistic soil water model to identify the timing and depth at which soil moisture related most strongly to the balance between grass and shrub dominance in the southern Colorado Plateau. Shrubs dominate where there is high soil moisture availability during winter, and where temperature is more seasonally variable, while grasses are favored where moisture is available during summer. Climate change projections indicate consistent increases in mean temperature and seasonal temperature variability for all sites, but predictions for summer and winter soil moisture vary across sites. Together, these changes in temperature and soil moisture are expected to shift the balance towards increasing shrub dominance across the region. These patterns are strongly driven by changes in temperature, which either enhance or overwhelm effects of changes in soil moisture across sites. This approach, which incorporates local, edaphic factors at sites protected from disturbance, improves understanding of climate change impacts on grass vs. shrub abundance and may be useful in other dryland regions with high edaphic and climatic heterogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]