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Climate change is progressively redistributing species towards the Earth's poles, indicating widespread potential for ecosystem collapse. Detecting early-warning-signals and enacting adaptation measures is therefore a key imperative for humanity. However, detecting early-warning signals has remained elusive and has focused on exceptionally high-frequency and/ or long-term time-series, which are generally unattainable for most ecosystems that are under-sampled and already impacted by warming. Here, we show that a catastrophic phase-shift in kelp ecosystems, caused by range-extension of an overgrazing sea urchin, also propagates poleward. Critically, we show that incipient spatial-pattern-formations of kelp overgrazing are detectable well-in-advance of collapse along temperate reefs in the ocean warming hotspot of south-eastern Australia. Demonstrating poleward progression of collapse over 15 years, these early-warning 'incipient barrens' are now widespread along 500 km of coast with projections indicating that half of all kelp beds within this range-extension region will collapse by ~2030. Overgrazing was positively associated with deep boulder-reefs, yet negatively associated with predatory lobsters and subordinate abalone competitors, which have both been intensively fished. Climate-driven collapse of ecosystems is occurring; however, by looking equatorward, space-for-time substitutions can enable practical detection of early-warning spatial-pattern-formations, allowing local climate adaptation measures to be enacted in advance. Climate change is redistributing species poleward, threatening widespread socio-ecological disruption as key tipping-points are exceeded. This study examines space-time dynamics of kelp ecosystem collapse over a 15-year period along the warming coastline of eastern Tasmania and shows that an early-warning signal of kelp ecosystem collapse is recognisable well-in-advance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reduced prevalence of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes in countries with endemic parasitic worm infections suggests a protective role for worms against metabolic disorders, however clinical evidence has been non-existent. This 2-year randomised, double-blinded clinical trial in Australia of hookworm infection in 40 male and female adults at risk of type 2 diabetes assessed the safety and potential metabolic benefits of treatment with either 20 (n = 14) or 40 (n = 13) Necator americanus larvae (L3) or Placebo (n = 13) (Registration ACTRN12617000818336). Primary outcome was safety defined by adverse events and completion rate. Homoeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance, fasting blood glucose and body mass were key secondary outcomes. Adverse events were more frequent in hookworm-treated participants, where 44% experienced expected gastrointestinal symptoms, but completion rates were comparable to Placebo. Fasting glucose and insulin resistance were lowered in both hookworm-treated groups at 1 year, and body mass was reduced after L3-20 treatment at 2 years. This study suggests hookworm infection is safe in people at risk of type 2 diabetes and associated with improved insulin resistance, warranting further exploration of the benefits of hookworms on metabolic health. A beneficial effect of parasitic worms on metabolic health has been postulated based on epidemiological and animal studies. Here, the authors show in a phase I clinical trial that treatment of people at risk of type 2 diabetes with hookworms is safe and may improve key measures of metabolic health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperate reefs are at the forefront of warming-induced community alterations resulting from poleward range shifts. This tropicalisation is exemplified and amplified by tropical species' invasions of temperate herbivory functions. However, whether other temperate ecosystem functions are similarly invaded by tropical species, and by what drivers, remains unclear. We examine tropicalisation footprints in nine reef fish functional groups using trait-based analyses and biomass of 550 fish species across tropical to temperate gradients in Japan and Australia. We discover that functional niches in transitional communities are asynchronously invaded by tropical species, but with congruent invasion schedules for functional groups across the two hemispheres. These differences in functional group tropicalisation point to habitat availability as a key determinant of multi-species range shifts, as in the majority of functional groups tropical and temperate species share functional niche space in suitable habitat. Competition among species from different thermal guilds played little part in limiting tropicalisation, rather available functional space occupied by temperate species indicates that tropical species can invade. Characterising these drivers of reef tropicalisation is pivotal to understanding, predicting, and managing marine community transformation. This study examines how the tropicalisation of shallow reefs changes functional niches for fishes in Japan and Australia. They discover that functional niches in tropical-temperate transitional communities are asynchronously invaded by tropical species, mediated more by habitat availability than competition with resident temperate species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of the Australian Monsoon to changing climate boundary conditions remains controversial due to limited understanding of forcing processes and past variability. Here, we reconstruct austral summer monsoonal discharge and wind-driven winter productivity across the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT) in a sediment sequence drilled off NW Australia. We show that monsoonal precipitation and runoff primarily responded to precessional insolation forcing until ~0.95 Ma, but exhibited heightened sensitivity to ice volume and pCO2 related feedbacks following intensification of glacial-interglacial cycles. Our records further suggest that summer monsoon variability at the precessional band was closely tied to the thermal evolution of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and strength of the Walker circulation over the past ~1.6 Myr. By contrast, productivity proxy records consistently tracked glacial-interglacial variability, reflecting changing rhythms in polar ice fluctuations and Hadley circulation strength. We conclude that the Australian Monsoon underwent a major re-organization across the MPT and that extratropical feedbacks were instrumental in driving short- and long-term variability. The response of monsoons to climate change remains uncertain. Here, the authors show that the Australian Summer Monsoon was primarily driven by insolation forcing but exhibited high sensitivity to ice volume and pCO2 after ~0.95 Ma. By contrast, wind-driven winter productivity tracked glacial-interglacial variability over the past 1.6 Myr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new variant of Streptococcus pyogenes serotype M1 (designated 'M1UK') has been reported in the United Kingdom, linked with seasonal scarlet fever surges, marked increase in invasive infections, and exhibiting enhanced expression of the superantigen SpeA. The progenitor S. pyogenes 'M1global' and M1UK clones can be differentiated by 27 SNPs and 4 indels, yet the mechanism for speA upregulation is unknown. Here we investigate the previously unappreciated expansion of M1UK in Australia, now isolated from the majority of serious infections caused by serotype M1 S. pyogenes. M1UK sub-lineages circulating in Australia also contain a novel toxin repertoire associated with epidemic scarlet fever causing S. pyogenes in Asia. A single SNP in the 5' transcriptional leader sequence of the transfer-messenger RNA gene ssrA drives enhanced SpeA superantigen expression as a result of ssrA terminator read-through in the M1UK lineage. This represents a previously unappreciated mechanism of toxin expression and urges enhanced international surveillance. A variant of group A Streptococcus serotype M1 (UK) has been increasingly reported and can be differentiated from the global variant by its overexpression of the superantigen SpeA. Here, Davies et al probe the mechanism behind enhanced SpeA expression and demonstrate that a SNP in the 5' leader sequence of ssrA is responsible for this virulence phenotype. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Macadamia is a high value nut crop that is recently domesticated, ideal for testing the effect of artificial selection. Here, we sequence the genome of Hawaiian cultivar 'Kau' and assemble into 794 Mb in 14 pseudo-chromosomes with 37,728 genes. Genome analysis reveals a whole-genome duplication event, occurred 46.8 million years ago. Gene expansions occurred in gene families involves in fatty acid biosynthesis. Gene duplication of MADS-Box transcription factors in proanthocyanidin biosynthesis are relevant for seed coat development. Genome re-sequencing of 112 accessions reveals the origin of Hawaiian cultivars from Mount Bauple in southeast Queensland in Australia. Selective sweeps are detected in macadamia cultivars, including genes involved in fatty acid biosynthesis, seed coat development, and heat stress response. Such strong effects of artificial selection in few generations reveals the genomic basis for 'one-step operation' for clonal crop domestication. The knowledge gained could accelerate domestication of new crops from wild species. Macadamia is a recently domesticated nut crop. Here, the authors report the genome assembly of Hawaiian cultivar 'Kau' and conduct population genomic analyses to reveal the origin of Hawaiian cultivars and the genomic basis for one-step operation for the clonal crop domestication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, there is a recognised need that all populations should be able to access the benefits of genomics and precision medicine. However, achieving this remains constrained by a paucity of data that quantifies access to clinical genomics, particularly amongst Indigenous populations. Using administrative data from clinical genetic health services across three Australian jurisdictions (states/territories), we investigate disparities in the scheduling and attendance of appointments among Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people, compared to non-Indigenous people. For 14,870 appointments scheduled between 2014–2018, adjusted Multivariate Poisson Regression models revealed that Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people were scheduled fewer appointments (IRR 0.73 [0.68–0.80], <0.001) and attended at lower rates (IRR 0.85 [0.78–0.93], <0.001). Within this population, adults, females, remote residents, and those presenting in relation to cancer or prenatal indications experienced the greatest disparity in access. These results provide important baseline data related to disparities in access to clinical genomics in Australia. Globally it is recognised that Indigenous populations should be able to access the benefits of genomics and precision medicine. Here, authors show that there are disparities in access to clinical genetic health services for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bergmann's and Allen's rules state that endotherms should be larger and have shorter appendages in cooler climates. However, the drivers of these rules are not clear. Both rules could be explained by adaptation for improved thermoregulation, including plastic responses to temperature in early life. Non-thermal explanations are also plausible as climate impacts other factors that influence size and shape, including starvation risk, predation risk, and foraging ecology. We assess the potential drivers of Bergmann's and Allen's rules in 30 shorebird species using extensive field data (>200,000 observations). We show birds in hot, tropical northern Australia have longer bills and smaller bodies than conspecifics in temperate, southern Australia, conforming with both ecogeographical rules. This pattern is consistent across ecologically diverse species, including migratory birds that spend early life in the Arctic. Our findings best support the hypothesis that thermoregulatory adaptation to warm climates drives latitudinal patterns in shorebird size and shape. Global patterns in animal size and shape have been long observed, but their underlying drivers are not well understood. Here the authors suggest latitudinal patterns in shorebird size and shape are best explained by thermal adaptation to warm climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical ecology has revolutionized our understanding of fisheries and cultural landscapes, demonstrating the value of historical data for evaluating the past, present, and future of Earth's ecosystems. Despite several important studies, Indigenous fisheries generally receive less attention from scholars and managers than the 17th–20th century capitalist commercial fisheries that decimated many keystone species, including oysters. We investigate Indigenous oyster harvest through time in North America and Australia, placing these data in the context of sea level histories and historical catch records. Indigenous oyster fisheries were pervasive across space and through time, persisting for 5000–10,000 years or more. Oysters were likely managed and sometimes "farmed," and are woven into broader cultural, ritual, and social traditions. Effective stewardship of oyster reefs and other marine fisheries around the world must center Indigenous histories and include Indigenous community members to co-develop more inclusive, just, and successful strategies for restoration, harvest, and management. 'Commercial fisheries have decimated keystone species, including oysters in the past 200 years. Here, the authors examine how Indigenous oyster harvest in North America and Australia was managed across 10,000 years, advocating for effective future stewardship of oyster reefs by centering Indigenous peoples.' [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfire magnitude and frequency have greatly escalated on a global scale. Wildfire products rich in biogenic elements can enter the ocean through atmospheric and river inputs, but their contribution to marine phytoplankton production is poorly understood. Here, using geochemical paleo-reconstructions, a century-long relationship between wildfire magnitude and marine phytoplankton production is established in a fire-prone region of Kimberley coast, Australia. A positive correlation is identified between wildfire and phytoplankton production on a decadal scale. The importance of wildfire on marine phytoplankton production is statistically higher than that of tropical cyclones and rainfall, when strong El Niño Southern Oscillation coincides with the positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole. Interdecadal chlorophyll-a variation along the Kimberley coast validates the spatial connection of this phenomenon. Findings from this study suggest that the role of additional nutrients from wildfires has to be considered when projecting impacts of global warming on marine phytoplankton production. Wildfires are expected to increase in frequency and severity. Here the authors use geochemical paleo-reconstructions to show that over decadal timescales in Earth history wildfires are positively correlated with phytoplankton production off the coast of Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic reflectors in the uppermost mantle, which can indicate past plate tectonic subduction, are exceedingly rare below Archaean cratons, and restricted to the Neoarchaean. Here we present reprocessed seismic reflection profiles from the northwest Archaean Yilgarn Craton and the Palaeoproterozoic Capricorn Orogen of western Australia that reveal the existence of a ~4 km thick south-dipping band of seismic reflectors that extends from the base of the Archaean crust to at least 60 km depth. We interpret these reflectors, which lie south of a ~50 km deep crustal root, as a relict suture zone within the lithosphere. We suggest that the mantle reflectors were created either by subduction of an oceanic plate along the northern edge of the Yilgarn Craton, which started in the Mesoarchaean and produced the rocks in northern Yilgarn greenstone belts that formed in a supra-subduction zone setting, or, alternatively, by underthrusting of continental crust deep into the lithosphere during the Palaeoproterozoic. The timing and nature of the first plate tectonic processes on Earth is disputed. Here the authors present a seismic reflection image of a suture zone that extends to 60 km depth beneath the ancient Yilgarn region of western Australia, suggesting that plate subduction occurred as early as 2.8 billion years ago [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire activity in Australia is strongly affected by high inter-annual climate variability and extremes. Through changes in the climate, anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter fire dynamics. Here we compile satellite (19 and 32 years) and ground-based (90 years) burned area datasets, climate and weather observations, and simulated fuel loads for Australian forests. Burned area in Australia's forests shows a linear positive annual trend but an exponential increase during autumn and winter. The mean number of years since the last fire has decreased consecutively in each of the past four decades, while the frequency of forest megafire years (>1 Mha burned) has markedly increased since 2000. The increase in forest burned area is consistent with increasingly more dangerous fire weather conditions, increased risk factors associated with pyroconvection, including fire-generated thunderstorms, and increased ignitions from dry lightning, all associated to varying degrees with anthropogenic climate change. The degree to which wildfire activity in Australia is affected by climate change is not well quantified. Here, the authors show that the frequency of forest fires and the area burned have increased significantly over recent decades, mainly due to an increase in dangerous fire weather conditions through warmer temperature and circulation changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Harmful algal and bacterial blooms linked to deforestation, soil loss and global warming are increasingly frequent in lakes and rivers. We demonstrate that climate changes and deforestation can drive recurrent microbial blooms, inhibiting the recovery of freshwater ecosystems for hundreds of millennia. From the stratigraphic successions of the Sydney Basin, Australia, our fossil, sedimentary and geochemical data reveal bloom events following forest ecosystem collapse during the most severe mass extinction in Earth's history, the end-Permian event (EPE; c. 252.2 Ma). Microbial communities proliferated in lowland fresh and brackish waterbodies, with algal concentrations typical of modern blooms. These initiated before any trace of post-extinction recovery vegetation but recurred episodically for >100 kyrs. During the following 3 Myrs, algae and bacteria thrived within short-lived, poorly-oxygenated, and likely toxic lakes and rivers. Comparisons to global deep-time records indicate that microbial blooms are persistent freshwater ecological stressors during warming-driven extinction events. Harmful algal and bacterial blooms are increasingly frequent in lakes and rivers. From the Sydney Basin, Australia, this study uses fossil, sedimentary and geochemical data to reveal bloom events following forest ecosystem collapse during the end-Permian event and that blooms have consistently followed warming-related extinction events, inhibiting the recovery of freshwater ecosystems for millennia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Salmonella enterica serovar 4,[5],12:i:- (Salmonella 4,[5],12:i:-) is a monophasic variant of Salmonella Typhimurium that has emerged as a global cause of multidrug resistant salmonellosis. We used Bayesian phylodynamics, genomic epidemiology, and phenotypic characterization to describe the emergence and evolution of Salmonella 4,[5],12:i:- in Australia. We show that the interruption of the genetic region surrounding the phase II flagellin, FljB, causing a monophasic phenotype, represents a stepwise evolutionary event through the accumulation of mobile resistance elements with minimal impairment to bacterial fitness. We identify three lineages with different population dynamics and discrete antimicrobial resistance profiles emerged, likely reflecting differential antimicrobial selection pressures. Two lineages are associated with travel to South-East Asia and the third lineage is endemic to Australia. Moreover antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella 4,[5],12:i- lineages efficiently infected and survived in host phagocytes and epithelial cells without eliciting significant cellular cytotoxicity, suggesting a suppression of host immune response that may facilitate the persistence of Salmonella 4,[5],12:i:-. Salmonella enterica serovar 4,[5],12:i:- (Salmonella 4,[5],12:i:-) is a major pathogen of humans and animals with a reported incidence in Australia three times higher than the UK and USA. Here, the authors report the circulation, antimicrobial resistance signatures, and effects on host cells, of three Salmonella4,[5],12:i:- lineages within Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The formation of stable, evolved (silica-rich) crust was essential in constructing Earth's first cratons, the ancient nuclei of continents. Eoarchaean (4000–3600 million years ago, Ma) evolved crust occurs on most continents, yet evidence for older, Hadean evolved crust is mostly limited to rare Hadean zircons recycled into younger rocks. Resolving why the preserved volume of evolved crust increased in the Eoarchaean is key to understanding how the first cratons stabilised. Here we report new zircon uranium-lead and hafnium isotope data from the Yilgarn Craton, Australia, which provides an extensive record of Hadean–Eoarchaean evolved magmatism. These data reveal that the first stable, evolved rocks in the Yilgarn Craton formed during an influx of juvenile (recently extracted from the mantle) magmatic source material into the craton. The concurrent shift to juvenile sources and onset of crustal preservation links craton stabilisation to the accumulation of enduring rafts of buoyant, melt-depleted mantle. Why Earth's crust only started becoming widely preserved in the Eoarchaean, 500 Ma after planetary accretion, is poorly understood. Here, the authors document a shift to juvenile magmatic sources in the early Eoarchaean, linking crustal preservation to the formation of stabilising melt-depleted mantle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inselbergs, such as Uluru in central Australia, are iconic landscape features of semi-arid and deeply denuded continental interiors. These islands of rock are commonly skirted by steep, overhanging cliffs (flared slopes) at ground level. The weathering processes responsible for formation of flared slopes and steep-sided inselbergs in flat, planated landscapes are enigmatic. One model emphasizes sub-surface weathering followed by denudation and excavation of saprolite to expose the unweathered bedrock while other models advocate slope development under subaerial conditions at ground level. We present a new hypothesis that identifies wildfire as a primary agent of flared slope development via fire-induced rock spalling around the periphery of inselbergs. Widespread fire-spalling following the 2019–2020 Australian fires illustrates that this is a common form of physical weathering in fire-prone environments but its effects are particularly evident in semi-arid regions where lateral fire-spalling dominates over fluvial and chemical weathering to create flared slopes and steep-sided inselbergs. Fire is an important mechanism of physical weathering responsible for the formation of overhanging flared slopes around the margins of steep-sided inselbergs. Fire-spalling erodes landscapes laterally rather than vertically and produces significant volumes of new sediment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia's 2019–2020 'Black Summer' bushfires burnt more than 8 million hectares of vegetation across the south-east of the continent, an event unprecedented in the last 200 years. Here we report the impacts of these fires on vascular plant species and communities. Using a map of the fires generated from remotely sensed hotspot data we show that, across 11 Australian bioregions, 17 major native vegetation groups were severely burnt, and up to 67–83% of globally significant rainforests and eucalypt forests and woodlands. Based on geocoded species occurrence data we estimate that >50% of known populations or ranges of 816 native vascular plant species were burnt during the fires, including more than 100 species with geographic ranges more than 500 km across. Habitat and fire response data show that most affected species are resilient to fire. However, the massive biogeographic, demographic and taxonomic breadth of impacts of the 2019–2020 fires may leave some ecosystems, particularly relictual Gondwanan rainforests, susceptible to regeneration failure and landscape-scale decline. Fires triggered by climate change threaten plant diversity in many biomes. Here the authors investigate how the catastrophic fires of 2019–2020 affected the vascular flora of SE Australia. They report that 816 species were highly impacted, including taxa of biogeographic and conservation interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The difficulty in finding causative mutations has hampered their use in genomic prediction. Here, we present a methodology to fine-map potentially causal variants genome-wide by integrating the functional, evolutionary and pleiotropic information of variants using GWAS, variant clustering and Bayesian mixture models. Our analysis of 17 million sequence variants in 44,000+ Australian dairy cattle for 34 traits suggests, on average, one pleiotropic QTL existing in each 50 kb chromosome-segment. We selected a set of 80k variants representing potentially causal variants within each chromosome segment to develop a bovine XT-50K genotyping array. The custom array contains many pleiotropic variants with biological functions, including splicing QTLs and variants at conserved sites across 100 vertebrate species. This biology-informed custom array outperformed the standard array in predicting genetic value of multiple traits across populations in independent datasets of 90,000+ dairy cattle from the USA, Australia and New Zealand. Genomic prediction of phenotype may be improved by using DNA mutations with functional, evolutionary, and pleiotropic consequences. Here the authors describe a method for genome-wide fine-mapping of QTLs and develop a genotyping array for improved prediction of genetic values for cattle traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global monsoon is characterised by transitions between pronounced dry and wet seasons, affecting food security for two-thirds of the world's population. Rising atmospheric CO2 influences the terrestrial hydrological cycle through climate-radiative and vegetation-physiological forcings. How these two forcings affect the seasonal intensity and characteristics of monsoonal precipitation and runoff is poorly understood. Here we use four Earth System Models to show that in a CO2-enriched climate, radiative forcing changes drive annual precipitation increases for most monsoon regions. Further, vegetation feedbacks substantially affect annual precipitation in North and South America and Australia monsoon regions. In the dry season, runoff increases over most monsoon regions, due to stomatal closure-driven evapotranspiration reductions and associated atmospheric circulation change. Our results imply that flood risks may amplify in the wet season. However, the lengthening of the monsoon rainfall season and reduced evapotranspiration will shorten the water resources scarcity period for most monsoon regions. Monsoon systems have strong impacts on precipitation and food security over large areas of the world. Here, the authors show that plant responses to rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere play a key role in modulating seasonal rainfall and water resources over global land monsoon regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although seasonal influenza viruses circulate globally, prevention and treatment occur at the level of regions, cities, and communities. At these scales, the timing, duration and magnitude of epidemics vary substantially, but the underlying causes of this variation are poorly understood. Here, based on analyses of a 15-year city-level dataset of 18,250 laboratory-confirmed and antigenically-characterised influenza virus infections from Australia, we investigate the effects of previously hypothesised environmental and virological drivers of influenza epidemics. We find that anomalous fluctuations in temperature and humidity do not predict local epidemic onset timings. We also find that virus antigenic change has no consistent effect on epidemic size. In contrast, epidemic onset time and heterosubtypic competition have substantial effects on epidemic size and composition. Our findings suggest that the relationship between influenza population immunity and epidemiology is more complex than previously supposed and that the strong influence of short-term processes may hinder long-term epidemiological forecasts. Seasonal influenza epidemics vary in timing and size, but the causes of the variation remain unclear. Here, the authors analyse a 15-year city-level data set, and find that fluctuations in climatic factors do not predict onset timing, and that while antigenic change does not have a consistent effect on epidemic size, the timing of onset and heterosubtypic competition do. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explanations for the Upper Pleistocene extinction of megafauna from Sahul (Australia and New Guinea) remain unresolved. Extinction hypotheses have advanced climate or human-driven scenarios, in spite of over three quarters of Sahul lacking reliable biogeographic or chronologic data. Here we present new megafauna from north-eastern Australia that suffered extinction sometime after 40,100 (±1700) years ago. Megafauna fossils preserved alongside leaves, seeds, pollen and insects, indicate a sclerophyllous forest with heathy understorey that was home to aquatic and terrestrial carnivorous reptiles and megaherbivores, including the world's largest kangaroo. Megafauna species diversity is greater compared to southern sites of similar age, which is contrary to expectations if extinctions followed proposed migration routes for people across Sahul. Our results do not support rapid or synchronous human-mediated continental-wide extinction, or the proposed timing of peak extinction events. Instead, megafauna extinctions coincide with regionally staggered spatio-temporal deterioration in hydroclimate coupled with sustained environmental change. The causes of the Upper Pleistocene megafauna extinction in Australia and New Guinea are debated, but fossil data are lacking for much of this region. Here, Hocknull and colleagues report a new, diverse megafauna assemblage from north-eastern Australia that persisted until ~40,000 years ago. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is little evidence for the role of plant foods in the dispersal of early modern humans into new habitats globally. Researchers have hypothesised that early movements of human populations through Island Southeast Asia and into Sahul were driven by the lure of high-calorie, low-handling-cost foods, and that the use of plant foods requiring processing was not common in Sahul until the Holocene. Here we present the analysis of charred plant food remains from Madjedbebe rockshelter in northern Australia, dated to between 65 kya and 53 kya. We demonstrate that Australia's earliest known human population exploited a range of plant foods, including those requiring processing. Our finds predate existing evidence for such subsistence practices in Sahul by at least 23ky. These results suggest that dietary breadth underpinned the success of early modern human populations in this region, with the expenditure of labour on the processing of plants guaranteeing reliable access to nutrients in new environments. Little is known about the diets of early modern humans as they dispersed into Australia. Here, Florin et al. study charred plant remains from Madjedbebe rockshelter, which show that 65–53 thousand years ago, early modern humans in northern Australia already had a broad diet of plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dingoes are wild canids living in Australia, originating from domestic dogs. They have lived isolated from both the wild and the domestic ancestor, making them a unique model for studying feralization. Here, we sequence the genomes of 10 dingoes and 2 New Guinea Singing Dogs. Phylogenetic and demographic analyses show that dingoes originate from dogs in southern East Asia, which migrated via Island Southeast Asia to reach Australia around 8300 years ago, and subsequently diverged into a genetically distinct population. Selection analysis identifies 50 positively selected genes enriched in digestion and metabolism, indicating a diet change during feralization of dingoes. Thirteen of these genes have shifted allele frequencies compared to dogs but not compared to wolves. Functional assays show that an A-to-G mutation in ARHGEF7 decreases the endogenous expression, suggesting behavioral adaptations related to the transitions in environment. Our results indicate that the feralization of the dingo induced positive selection on genomic regions correlated to neurodevelopment, metabolism and reproduction, in adaptation to a wild environment. Dingoes evolved in isolation from both their domesticated and wild ancestors. Here, the authors investigate the genomic basis of the feralization of dingoes and trace their origin to domestic dogs that migrated to Australia approximately 8300 years ago. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savanna fires produce significant emissions globally, but if managed effectively could provide an important mitigation opportunity, particularly in African least developed countries. Here we show global opportunities for emissions reductions through early dry season burning for 37 countries including: 29 countries in Africa (69.1 MtCO2-e yr-1), six countries in South America (13.3 MtCO2-e yr-1), and Australia and Papua New Guinea (6.9 MtCO2-e yr-1). Emissions reduction estimates are based on the successful approach developed in Australia to reduce emissions from savanna fires using global-scale, remotely sensed estimates of monthly emissions. Importantly, 20 least developed countries in Africa account for 74% of the mitigation potential (60.2 MtCO2-e yr-1). More than 1.02 million km2 of savanna dominated protected areas within these countries could be used as pilot sites to test and advance a regional approach to mitigation efforts for savanna fires in Africa. Potential versus actual abatement opportunities are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational evidence points to a warming global climate accompanied by rising sea levels which impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities. Studies suggest that internal climate processes can modulate projected future sea level rise (SLR) regionally. It is not clear whether this modulation depends on the future climate pathways. Here, by analyzing two sets of ensemble simulations from a climate model, we investigate the potential reduction of SLR, as a result of steric and dynamic oceanographic affects alone, achieved by following a lower emission scenario instead of business-as-usual one over the twenty-first century and how it may be modulated regionally by internal climate variability. Results show almost no statistically significant difference in steric and dynamic SLR on both global and regional scales in the near-term between the two scenarios, but statistically significant SLR reduction for the global mean and many regions later in the century (2061-2080). However, there are regions where the reduction is insignificant, such as the Philippines and west of Australia, that are associated with ocean dynamics and intensified internal variability due to external forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The resource-poor, isolated islands of Wallacea have been considered a major adaptive obstacle for hominins expanding into Australasia. Archaeological evidence has hinted that coastal adaptations in Homo sapiens enabled rapid island dispersal and settlement; however, there has been no means to directly test this proposition. Here, we apply stable carbon and oxygen isotope analysis to human and faunal tooth enamel from six Late Pleistocene to Holocene archaeological sites across Wallacea. The results demonstrate that the earliest human forager found in the region c. 42,000 years ago made significant use of coastal resources prior to subsequent niche diversification shown for later individuals. We argue that our data provides clear insights into the huge adaptive flexibility of our species, including its ability to specialize in the use of varied environments, particularly in comparison to other hominin species known from Island Southeast Asia.

There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. This model is calibrated to match key characteristics of COVID-19 transmission. An important calibration outcome is the age-dependent fraction of symptomatic cases, with this fraction for children found to be one-fifth of such fraction for adults. We apply the model to compare several intervention strategies, including restrictions on international air travel, case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing with varying levels of compliance, and school closures. School closures are not found to bring decisive benefits unless coupled with high level of social distancing compliance. We report several trade-offs, and an important transition across the levels of social distancing compliance, in the range between 70% and 80% levels, with compliance at the 90% level found to control the disease within 13–14 weeks, when coupled with effective case isolation and international travel restrictions. There is ongoing debate about the effective combination of strategies for COIVD-19 control. Here, the authors use an agent-based model to quantify and compare several intervention strategies, and identify minimal levels of social distancing compliance required to control the epidemic in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Funds to combat biodiversity loss are insufficient, requiring conservation managers to make trade-offs between costs for actions to avoid further loss and costs for research and monitoring to guide effective actions. Using species' management plans for 2328 listed species from three countries we show that 50% of species' proposed recovery plan budgets are allocated to research and monitoring. The proportion of budgets allocated to research and monitoring vary among jurisdictions and taxa, but overall, species with higher proportions of budgets allocated to research and monitoring have poorer recovery outcomes. The proportion allocated to research and monitoring is lower for more recent recovery plans, but for some species, plans have allocated the majority of funds to information gathering for decades. We provide recommendations for careful examination of the value of collecting new information in recovery planning to ensure that conservation programs emphasize action or research and monitoring that directly informs action. How to best allocate limited resources for conserving imperilled species is a difficult challenge. Here the authors analyse data on over 2000 threatened species from USA, Australia, and New Zealand, finding that on average half of the budget is allocated to research and monitoring. Species with higher budget allocation to research and monitoring tend to have poorer recovery outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genomic sequencing has significant potential to inform public health management for SARS-CoV-2. Here we report high-throughput genomics for SARS-CoV-2, sequencing 80% of cases in Victoria, Australia (population 6.24 million) between 6 January and 14 April 2020 (total 1,333 COVID-19 cases). We integrate epidemiological, genomic and phylodynamic data to identify clusters and impact of interventions. The global diversity of SARS-CoV-2 is represented, consistent with multiple importations. Seventy-six distinct genomic clusters were identified, including large clusters associated with social venues, healthcare and cruise ships. Sequencing sequential samples from 98 patients reveals minimal intra-patient SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity. Phylodynamic modelling indicates a significant reduction in the effective viral reproductive number (Re) from 1.63 to 0.48 after implementing travel restrictions and physical distancing. Our data provide a concrete framework for the use of SARS-CoV-2 genomics in public health responses, including its use to rapidly identify SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains, increasingly important as social restrictions ease globally. Genome sequencing can be used to infer pathogen transmission dynamics and inform public health responses. Here, the authors sequence >1,200 SARS-CoV-2 samples from Victoria, Australia and find genomic support for the effectiveness of social restrictions in reducing transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE; tidal marshes, mangroves and seagrasses) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here, we present organic carbon (C) storage in VCE across Australian climate regions and estimate potential annual CO2 emission benefits of VCE conservation and restoration. Australia contributes 5–11% of the C stored in VCE globally (70–185 Tg C in aboveground biomass, and 1,055–1,540 Tg C in the upper 1 m of soils). Potential CO2 emissions from current VCE losses are estimated at 2.1–3.1 Tg CO2-e yr-1, increasing annual CO2 emissions from land use change in Australia by 12–21%. This assessment, the most comprehensive for any nation to-date, demonstrates the potential of conservation and restoration of VCE to underpin national policy development for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here the authors assessed organic carbon storage in VCE across Australian and the potential annual CO2 emission benefits of VCE conservation and find that Australia contributes substantially the carbon stored in VCE globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Naturally heat-resistant coral populations hold significant potential for facilitating coral reef survival under rapid climate change. However, it remains poorly understood whether they can acclimatize to ocean warming when superimposed on their already thermally-extreme habitats. Furthermore, it is unknown whether they can maintain their heat tolerance upon larval dispersal or translocation to cooler reefs. We test this in a long-term mesocosm experiment using stress-resistant corals from thermally-extreme reefs in NW Australia. We show that these corals have a remarkable ability to maintain their heat tolerance and health despite acclimation to 3–6 °C cooler, more stable temperatures over 9 months. However, they are unable to increase their bleaching thresholds after 6-months acclimation to + 1 °C warming. This apparent rigidity in the thermal thresholds of even stress-resistant corals highlights the increasing vulnerability of corals to ocean warming, but provides a rationale for human-assisted migration to restore cooler, degraded reefs with corals from thermally-extreme reefs. Coral populations from thermally extreme conditions may help restore reefs degraded by bleaching. Here, the authors show that these corals can maintain their heat tolerance despite acclimation to colder temperatures but have a limited capacity to acclimatize to ocean warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) has been used to investigate transmission of Neisseria gonorrhoeae, but to date, most studies have not combined genomic data with detailed information on sexual behaviour to define the extent of transmission across population risk groups (bridging). Here, through combined epidemiological and genomic analysis of 2,186N. gonorrhoeae isolates from Australia, we show widespread transmission of N. gonorrhoeae within and between population groups. We describe distinct transmission clusters associated with men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexuals, and men who have sex with men and women (MSMW) are identified as a possible bridging population between these groups. Further, the study identifies transmission of N. gonorrhoeae between HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals receiving pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Our data highlight several groups that can be targeted for interventions aimed at improving gonorrhoea control, including returning travellers, sex workers, and PrEP users. Here, Williamson et al. combine epidemiological and genomic analysis of 2,186 Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates from Australia and show that men who have sex with men and women are a possible 'bridging' population between men who have sex with men and heterosexuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]