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Climate change mitigation generally require rapid decarbonization in the power sector, including phase-out of fossil fuel-fired generators. Given recent technological developments, co-firing of hydrogen or ammonia, could help decarbonize fossil-based generators, but little is known about how its effects would play out globally. Here, we explore this topic using an energy system model. The results indicate that hydrogen co-firing occurs solely in stringent mitigation like 1.5 °C scenarios, where around half of existing coal and gas power capacity can be retrofitted for hydrogen co-firing, reducing stranded capacity, mainly in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and Asia. However, electricity supply from co-firing generators is limited to about 1% of total electricity generation, because hydrogen co-firing is mainly used as a backup option to balance the variable renewable energies. The incremental fuel cost of hydrogen results in lower capacity factor of hydrogen co-fired generators, whereas low-carbon hydrogen contributes to reducing emission cost associated with carbon pricing. While hydrogen co-firing may play a role in balancing intermittency of variable renewable energies, it will not seriously delay the phase-out of fossil-based generators. Effects of hydrogen and ammonia co-firing with fossil power generation on decarbonization scenario are assessed. Co-fired generation is limited to <1% because of higher cost of hydrogen. It will not delay the phase-out of fossil-based generators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High reproductive compatibility between crops and their wild relatives can provide benefits for crop breeding but also poses risks for agricultural weed evolution. Weedy rice is a feral relative of rice that infests paddies and causes severe crop losses worldwide. In regions of tropical Asia where the wild progenitor of rice occurs, weedy rice could be influenced by hybridization with the wild species. Genomic analysis of this phenomenon has been very limited. Here we use whole genome sequence analyses of 217 wild, weedy and cultivated rice samples to show that wild rice hybridization has contributed substantially to the evolution of Southeast Asian weedy rice, with some strains acquiring weed-adaptive traits through introgression from the wild progenitor. Our study highlights how adaptive introgression from wild species can contribute to agricultural weed evolution, and it provides a case study of parallel evolution of weediness in independently-evolved strains of a weedy crop relative. Genome-wide evidence to support that wild rice can contribute to weedy rice evolution by hybridization and adaptive introgression is very limited. Here, the authors sequence the weedy rice genomes and show reproductively compatible wild rice can contribute to weedy rice evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complex and contrasted distribution of terrestrial biota in Asia has been linked to active tectonics and dramatic climatic changes during the Neogene. However, the timings of the emergence of these distributional patterns and the underlying climatic and tectonic mechanisms remain disputed. Here, we apply a computational data analysis technique, called redescription mining, to track these spatiotemporal phenomena by studying the associations between the prevailing herbivore dental traits of mammalian communities and climatic conditions during the Neogene. Our results indicate that the modern latitudinal zoogeographic division emerged after the Middle Miocene climatic transition, and that the modern monsoonal zoogeographic pattern emerged during the late Late Miocene. Furthermore, the presence of a montane forest biodiversity hotspot in the Hengduan Mountains alongside Alpine fauna on the Tibetan Plateau suggests that the modern distribution patterns may have already existed since the Pliocene. The timing of the emergence of the modern Asian terrestrial biota is unclear. Here, the authors apply redescription mining to herbivore dental trait data, finding that different aspects of modern zoogeographic patterns originated in the Pliocene and Middle and Late Miocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Structure-guided immunofocusing HIV-1 vaccine design entails a comprehensive understanding of Envs from diverse HIV-1 subtypes, including circulating recombinant forms (CRFs). Here, we present the cryo-EM structures of Envs from two Asia prevalent CRFs (CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC) at 3.0 and 3.5 Å. We compare the structures and glycosylation patterns of Envs from different subtypes and perform cross-clade statistical analyses to reveal the unique features of CRF01_AE V1 region, which are associated with the resistance to certain bNAbs. We also solve a 4.1 Å cryo-EM structure of CRF01_AE Env in complex with F6, the first bNAb from CRF01_AE-infected individuals. F6 recognizes a gp120-gp41 spanning epitope to allosterically destabilize the Env trimer apex and weaken inter-protomer packing, which in turn hinders the receptor binding and induces Env trimer disassembly, demonstrating a dual mechanism of neutralization. These findings broaden our understanding of CRF Envs and shed lights on immunofocusing HIV-1 vaccine design. Envelope glycoproteins from Asia prevalent HIV-1 subtypes, CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC, remain less explored. Here, the authors reveal the unique features of their V1 regions, associate them with the resistance to certain broad neutralising antibodies (bNAbs), and unravel the epitope and mechanism of a bNAb from CRF01_AE infected individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected in many continental-scale regions during the remainder of the 21st century. However, much less is known about future changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation, an important earth system property relevant for climate adaptation. Here, on the basis of CMIP6 models that capture the present-day teleconnections between seasonal precipitation and previous-season sea surface temperature (SST), we show that climate change is expected to alter the SST-precipitation relationships and thus our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100. Specifically, in the tropics, seasonal precipitation predictability from SSTs is projected to increase throughout the year, except the northern Amazonia during boreal winter. Concurrently, in the extra-tropics predictability is likely to increase in central Asia during boreal spring and winter. The altered predictability, together with enhanced interannual variability of seasonal precipitation, poses new opportunities and challenges for regional water management. This study shows that climate change will alter the sea surface temperature - precipitation relationships and our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rice root-knot nematode (Meloidogyne graminicola) is one of the most destructive pests threatening rice (Oryza sativa L.) production in Asia; however, no rice resistance genes have been cloned. Here, we demonstrate that M. GRAMINICOLA-RESISTANCE GENE 1 (MG1), an R gene highly expressed at the site of nematode invasion, determines resistance against the nematode in several rice varieties. Introgressing MG1 into susceptible varieties increases resistance comparable to resistant varieties, for which the leucine-rich repeat domain is critical for recognizing root-knot nematode invasion. We also report transcriptome and cytological changes that are correlated with a rapid and robust response during the incompatible interaction that occurs in resistant rice upon nematode invasion. Furthermore, we identified a putative protease inhibitor that directly interacts with MG1 during MG1-mediated resistance. Our findings provide insight into the molecular basis of nematode resistance as well as valuable resources for developing rice varieties with improved nematode resistance. Rice root-knot nematode is a major threat to rice production. Here, the authors identify an R gene MG1 in rice that confers resistance against nematodes and encodes a protein that interacts with a protease inhibitor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rice bean (Vigna umbellata) is an underexploited domesticated legume crop consumed for dietary protein in Asia, yet little is known about the genetic diversity of this species. Here, we present a high-quality reference genome for a rice bean landrace (FF25) built using PacBio long-read data and a Hi-C chromatin interaction map, and assess the phylogenetic position and speciation time of rice bean within the Vigna genus. We sequence 440 landraces (two core collections), and GWAS based on data for growth sites at three widely divergent latitudes reveal loci associated with flowering and yield. Loci harboring orthologs of FUL (FRUITFULL), FT (FLOWERING LOCUS T), and PRR3 (PSEUDO-RESPONSE REGULATOR 3) contribute to the adaptation of rice bean from its low latitude center of origin towards higher latitudes, and the landraces which pyramid early-flowering alleles for these loci display maximally short flowering times. We also demonstrate that copy-number-variation for VumCYP78A6 can regulate seed-yield traits. Intriguingly, 32 landraces collected from a mountainous region in South-Central China harbor a recently acquired InDel in TFL1 (TERMINAL FLOWER1) affecting stem determinacy; these materials also have exceptionally high values for multiple human-desired traits and could therefore substantially advance breeding efforts to improve rice bean. Rice bean is an underexploited legume crop that has many desirable properties against bio and abiotic stresses. Here, the authors report the genome assembly of this species, conduct population genetics studies and reveal the genetic variations associated with adaptation and yield traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The origin of the temperature divergence between Holocene proxy reconstructions and model simulations remains controversial, but it possibly results from potential biases in the seasonality of reconstructions or in the climate sensitivity of models. Here we present an extensive dataset of Holocene seasonal temperatures reconstructed using 1310 pollen records covering the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Our results indicate that both summer and winter temperatures warmed from the early to mid-Holocene (~11–7 ka BP) and then cooled thereafter, but with significant spatial variability. Strong early Holocene warming trend occurred mainly in Europe, eastern North America and northern Asia, which can be generally captured by model simulations and is likely associated with the retreat of continental ice sheets. The subsequent cooling trend is pervasively recorded except for northern Asia and southeastern North America, which may reflect the cross-seasonal impact of the decreasing summer insolation through climatic feedbacks, but the cooling in winter season is not well reproduced by climate models. Our results challenge the proposal that seasonal biases in proxies are the main origin of model–data discrepancies and highlight the critical impact of insolation and associated feedbacks on temperature changes, which warrant closer attention in future climate modelling. The study reconstructed Holocene seasonal temperatures using 1,310 pollen records covering the Northern Hemisphere landmass, and show that both summer and winter temperatures peaked at ~7 ka BP, but with significant spatial variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The terrestrial carbon sink slows the accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere by absorbing roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but varies greatly from year to year. The resulting variations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) have been related to tropical temperature and water availability. The apparent sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature ( γ CGR T ) has changed markedly over the past six decades, however, the drivers of the observation to date remains unidentified. Here, we use atmospheric observations, multiple global vegetation models and machine learning products to analyze the cause of the sensitivity change. We found that a threefold increase in γ CGR T emerged due to the long-term changes in the magnitude of CGR variability (i.e., indicated by one standard deviation of CGR; STDCGR), which increased 34.7% from 1960-1979 to 1985-2004 and subsequently decreased 14.4% in 1997-2016. We found a close relationship (r2 = 0.75, p < 0.01) between STDCGR and the tropical vegetated area (23°S – 23°N) affected by extreme droughts, which influenced 6-9% of the tropical vegetated surface. A 1% increase in the tropical area affected by extreme droughts led to about 0.14 Pg C yr−1 increase in STDCGR. The historical changes in STDCGR were dominated by extreme drought-affected areas in tropical Africa and Asia, and semi-arid ecosystems. The outsized influence of extreme droughts over a small fraction of vegetated surface amplified the interannual variability in CGR and explained the observed long-term dynamics of γ CGR T . The apparent temperature sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate has increased markedly over the past six decades, however, the increase remains unexplained. Here we show that tropical extreme droughts amplified the interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and drove the sensitivity change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buffalo is an important livestock species. Here, we present a comprehensive metagenomic survey of the microbial communities along the buffalo digestive tract. We analysed 695 samples covering eight different sites in three compartments (four-chambered stomach, intestine, and rectum). We mapped ~85% of the raw sequence reads to 4,960 strain-level metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) and 3,255 species-level MAGs, 90% of which appear to correspond to new species. In addition, we annotated over 5.8 million nonredundant proteins from the MAGs. In comparison with the rumen microbiome of cattle, the buffalo microbiota seems to present greater potential for fibre degradation and less potential for methane production. Our catalogue of microbial genomes and the encoded proteins provides insights into microbial functions and interactions at distinct sites along the buffalo digestive tract. Buffalo is an important livestock in Asia. Here, the authors present a comprehensive metagenomic analysis of the microbial communities present in different sites and compartments along the buffalo digestive tract. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across the Miocene–Pliocene boundary (MPB; 5.3 million years ago, Ma), late Miocene cooling gave way to the early-to-middle Pliocene Warm Period. This transition, across which atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased to levels similar to present, holds potential for deciphering regional climate responses in Asia—currently home to more than half of the world's population— to global climate change. Here we find that CO2-induced MPB warming both increased summer monsoon moisture transport over East Asia, and enhanced aridification over large parts of Central Asia by increasing evaporation, based on integration of our ~1–2-thousand-year (kyr) resolution summer monsoon records from the Chinese Loess Plateau aeolian red clay with existing terrestrial records, land-sea correlations, and climate model simulations. Our results offer palaeoclimate-based support for 'wet-gets-wetter and dry-gets-drier' projections of future regional hydroclimate responses to sustained anthropogenic forcing. Moreover, our high-resolution monsoon records reveal a dynamic response to eccentricity modulation of solar insolation, with predominant 405-kyr and ~100-kyr periodicities between 8.1 and 3.4 Ma. Global warming drove 'wet gets wetter and dry gets drier' climate shifts in Asia ~5.3 million years ago with monsoon pacing by ~400,000 and ~ 100,000 year cycles. This could be a template for future Asian climate response to anthropogenic warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Normally, when different species of herbivorous arthropods feed on the same plant this leads to fitness-reducing competition. We found this to be different for two of Asia's most destructive rice pests, the brown planthopper and the rice striped stem borer. Both insects directly and indirectly benefit from jointly attacking the same host plant. Double infestation improved host plant quality, particularly for the stemborer because the planthopper fully suppresses caterpillar-induced production of proteinase inhibitors. It also reduced the risk of egg parasitism, due to diminished parasitoid attraction. Females of both pests have adapted their oviposition behaviour accordingly. Their strong preference for plants infested by the other species even overrides their avoidance of plants already attacked by conspecifics. This cooperation between herbivores is telling of adaptations resulting from the evolution of plant-insect interactions, and points out mechanistic vulnerabilities that can be targeted to control these major pests. Herbivore cooperation between insect pests can result in substantially greater damage to crops but also constitutes a good target for improved pest control. Liu et al. reveal how the brown plant-hopper and the rice striped stem-borer obtain mutual benefits when feeding on the same rice plant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low clouds play a key role in the Earth-atmosphere energy balance and influence agricultural production and solar-power generation. Smoke aloft has been found to enhance marine stratocumulus through aerosol-cloud interactions, but its role in regions with strong human activities and complex monsoon circulation remains unclear. Here we show that biomass burning aerosols aloft strongly increase the low cloud coverage over both land and ocean in subtropical southeastern Asia. The degree of this enhancement and its spatial extent are comparable to that in the Southeast Atlantic, even though the total biomass burning emissions in Southeast Asia are only one-fifth of those in Southern Africa. We find that a synergetic effect of aerosol-cloud-boundary layer interaction with the monsoon is the main reason for the strong semi-direct effect and enhanced low cloud formation in southeastern Asia. Biomass burning emissions have been shown to influence clouds in the Atlantic, but its influence in other regions is not well known. Here, the authors show that biomass burning aerosols increase the low-cloud cover over subtropical southeastern Asia by a similar magnitude than over the Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We developed a method, ArchaicSeeker 2.0, to identify introgressed hominin sequences and model multiple-wave admixture. The new method enabled us to discern two waves of introgression from both Denisovan-like and Neanderthal-like hominins in present-day Eurasian populations and an ancient Siberian individual. We estimated that an early Denisovan-like introgression occurred in Eurasia around 118.8–94.0 thousand years ago (kya). In contrast, we detected only one single episode of Denisovan-like admixture in indigenous peoples eastern to the Wallace-Line. Modeling ancient admixtures suggested an early dispersal of modern humans throughout Asia before the Toba volcanic super-eruption 74 kya, predating the initial peopling of Asia as proposed by the traditional Out-of-Africa model. Survived archaic sequences are involved in various phenotypes including immune and body mass (e.g., ZNF169), cardiovascular and lung function (e.g., HHAT), UV response and carbohydrate metabolism (e.g., HYAL1/HYAL2/HYAL3), while "archaic deserts" are enriched with genes associated with skin development and keratinization. Existing methods to identify the presence of DNA from other hominin species can be limited in the ability to accurately estimate introgression waves, or can only be applied to specific populations. Here, the authors have developed a generalizable method to identify introgression in multi-wave situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mass extinctions have repeatedly shaped global biodiversity. The Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction caused the demise of numerous vertebrate groups, and its aftermath saw the rapid diversification of surviving mammals, birds, frogs, and teleost fishes. However, the effects of the K-Pg extinction on the evolution of snakes—a major clade of predators comprising over 3,700 living species—remains poorly understood. Here, we combine an extensive molecular dataset with phylogenetically and stratigraphically constrained fossil calibrations to infer an evolutionary timescale for Serpentes. We reveal a potential diversification among crown snakes associated with the K-Pg mass extinction, led by the successful colonisation of Asia by the major extant clade Afrophidia. Vertebral morphometrics suggest increasing morphological specialisation among marine snakes through the Paleogene. The dispersal patterns of snakes following the K-Pg underscore the importance of this mass extinction event in shaping Earth's extant vertebrate faunas. Snakes are one of the most successful groups of living vertebrates, but the timing of their diversification is unclear. Combining molecular clocks, fossils, and biogeography, Klein et al. show that snakes experienced a diversification, and underwent dispersal, around the time of the end-Cretaceous mass extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing threat to human and animal health. However, in aquatic animals—the fastest growing food animal sector globally—AMR trends are seldom documented, particularly in Asia, which contributes two-thirds of global food fish production. Here, we present a systematic review and meta-analysis of 749 point prevalence surveys reporting antibiotic-resistant bacteria from aquatic food animals in Asia, extracted from 343 articles published in 2000–2019. We find concerning levels of resistance to medically important antimicrobials in foodborne pathogens. In aquaculture, the percentage of antimicrobial compounds per survey with resistance exceeding 50% (P50) plateaued at 33% [95% confidence interval (CI) 28 to 37%] between 2000 and 2018. In fisheries, P50 decreased from 52% [95% CI 39 to 65%] to 22% [95% CI 14 to 30%]. We map AMR at 10-kilometer resolution, finding resistance hotspots along Asia's major river systems and coastal waters of China and India. Regions benefitting most from future surveillance efforts are eastern China and India. Scaling up surveillance to strengthen epidemiological evidence on AMR and inform aquaculture and fisheries interventions is needed to mitigate the impact of AMR globally. Trends in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in aquatic food animals are seldom documented, particularly in Asia. Here, Schar et al. review 749 point prevalence surveys, describing AMR trends in Asian aquaculture and fisheries over two decades, and identifying resistance hotspots as well as regions that would benefit most from future surveillance efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nutritional stability – a food system's capacity to provide sufficient nutrients despite disturbance – is an important, yet challenging to measure outcome of diversified agriculture. Using 55 years of data across 184 countries, we assemble 22,000 bipartite crop-nutrient networks to quantify nutritional stability by simulating crop and nutrient loss in a country, and assess its relationship to crop diversity across regions, over time and between imports versus in country production. We find a positive, saturating relationship between crop diversity and nutritional stability across countries, but also show that over time nutritional stability remained stagnant or decreased in all regions except Asia. These results are attributable to diminishing returns on crop diversity, with recent gains in crop diversity among crops with fewer nutrients, or with nutrients already in a country's food system. Finally, imports are positively associated with crop diversity and nutritional stability, indicating that many countries' nutritional stability is market exposed. Crop diversification could be important for food security. Here, using methods from network science, the authors find that a positive relationship between crop diversity and nutritional stability globally does not necessarily equate to improving nutritional stability in a given country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep Earth degassing is a critical forcing factor for atmospheric CO2 variations and palaeoclimate changes in Earth's history. For the Cenozoic, the key driving mechanism of atmospheric CO2 variations remains controversial. Here we analyse three stages of collision-related magmatism in Tibet, which correspond temporally with the three major stages of atmospheric CO2 variations in the Cenozoic and explore the possibility of a causal link between these phenomena. To this end we present geochemical data for the three stages of magmatic rocks in Tibet, which we use to inform a model calculating the continental collision-induced CO2 emission flux associated with the evolving Neo-Tethyan to continental subduction over the Cenozoic. The correlation between our modelled CO2 emission rates and the global atmospheric CO2 curve is consistent with the hypothesis that the India-Asia collision was the primary driver of changes in atmospheric CO2 over the Cenozoic. "Earth degassing is a critical carbon source, but its contribution to Cenozoic atmospheric CO2 variations is not well known. Here, the authors analyse CO2 fluxes on the Tibetan Plateau and suggest that the India-Asia collision was the primary driver of changes in atmospheric CO2 over the past 65 Ma." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a malignant head and neck cancer type with high morbidity in Southeast Asia, however the pathogenic mechanism of this disease is poorly understood. Using integrative pharmacogenomics, we find that NPC subtypes maintain distinct molecular features, drug responsiveness, and graded radiation sensitivity. The epithelial carcinoma (EC) subtype is characterized by activations of microtubule polymerization and defective mitotic spindle checkpoint related genes, whereas sarcomatoid carcinoma (SC) and mixed sarcomatoid-epithelial carcinoma (MSEC) subtypes exhibit enriched epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and invasion promoting genes, which are well correlated with their morphological features. Furthermore, patient-derived organoid (PDO)-based drug test identifies potential subtype-specific treatment regimens, in that SC and MSEC subtypes are sensitive to microtubule inhibitors, whereas EC subtype is more responsive to EGFR inhibitors, which is synergistically enhanced by combining with radiotherapy. Through combinational chemoradiotherapy (CRT) screening, effective CRT regimens are also suggested for patients showing less sensitivity to radiation. Altogether, our study provides an example of applying integrative pharmacogenomics to establish a personalized precision oncology for NPC subtype-guided therapies. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a malignant cancer type with high morbidity in Asia, and its current molecular classification is insufficient to predict therapy outcomes. Here the authors explore NPC subtype-specific response to therapy with a pharmacogenomics strategy integrating genomics and drug response of patient-derived organoids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change affects precipitation patterns. Here, we investigate whether its signals are already detectable in reported river flood damages. We develop an empirical model to reconstruct observed damages and quantify the contributions of climate and socio-economic drivers to observed trends. We show that, on the level of nine world regions, trends in damages are dominated by increasing exposure and modulated by changes in vulnerability, while climate-induced trends are comparably small and mostly statistically insignificant, with the exception of South & Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Asia. However, when disaggregating the world regions into subregions based on river-basins with homogenous historical discharge trends, climate contributions to damages become statistically significant globally, in Asia and Latin America. In most regions, we find monotonous climate-induced damage trends but more years of observations would be needed to distinguish between the impacts of anthropogenic climate forcing and multidecadal oscillations. This study introduces an empirical modeling approach allowing to separate climate and socio-economic drivers of damages by fluvial floods. It shows that climate signals are clearly detectable in Asia and Latin America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged from obscurity in 2013 to spread from Asia to the South Pacific and the Americas, where millions of people were infected, accompanied by severe disease including microcephaly following congenital infections. Phylogenetic studies have shown that ZIKV evolved in Africa and later spread to Asia, and that the Asian lineage is responsible for the recent epidemics in the South Pacific and Americas. However, the reasons for the sudden emergence of ZIKV remain enigmatic. Here we report evolutionary analyses that revealed four mutations, which occurred just before ZIKV introduction to the Americas, represent direct reversions of previous mutations that accompanied earlier spread from Africa to Asia and early circulation there. Our experimental infections of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, human cells, and mice using ZIKV strains with and without these mutations demonstrate that the original mutations reduced fitness for urban, human-amplifed transmission, while the reversions restored fitness, increasing epidemic risk. These findings include characterization of three transmission-adaptive ZIKV mutations, and demonstration that these and one identified previously restored fitness for epidemic transmission soon before introduction into the Americas. The initial mutations may have followed founder effects and/or drift when the virus was introduced decades ago into Asia. The trajectory of the emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV) into the Americas remains unclear. Here, the authors find that four mutations originated before ZIKV introduction to the Americas are direct reversions of previous mutations that accompanied spread many decades ago from ZIKV's native Africa to Asia, and show in experimental infections of mosquitoes, human cells, and mice that the original mutations reduced fitness for urban transmission, while the reversions restored fitness, likely increasing epidemic risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have been shown to predict breast cancer risk in European women, but their utility in Asian women is unclear. Here we evaluate the best performing PRSs for European-ancestry women using data from 17,262 breast cancer cases and 17,695 controls of Asian ancestry from 13 case-control studies, and 10,255 Chinese women from a prospective cohort (413 incident breast cancers). Compared to women in the middle quintile of the risk distribution, women in the highest 1% of PRS distribution have a ~2.7-fold risk and women in the lowest 1% of PRS distribution has ~0.4-fold risk of developing breast cancer. There is no evidence of heterogeneity in PRS performance in Chinese, Malay and Indian women. A PRS developed for European-ancestry women is also predictive of breast cancer risk in Asian women and can help in developing risk-stratified screening programmes in Asia. Polygenic risk scores predict the likelihood that an individual will develop a certain cancer, however these are often specific for a given population. Here, the authors show that a risk score developed to assess the risk of breast cancer in European women can also predict risk in Asian populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humans cultivate thousands of economic plants (i.e. plants with economic value) outside their native ranges. To analyze how this contributes to naturalization success, we combine global databases on economic uses and naturalization success of the world's seed plants. Here we show that naturalization likelihood is 18 times higher for economic than non-economic plants. Naturalization success is highest for plants grown as animal food or for environmental uses (e.g. ornamentals), and increases with number of uses. Taxa from the Northern Hemisphere are disproportionately over-represented among economic plants, and economic plants from Asia have the greatest naturalization success. In regional naturalized floras, the percentage of economic plants exceeds the global percentage and increases towards the equator. Phylogenetic patterns in the naturalized flora partly result from phylogenetic patterns in the plants we cultivate. Our study illustrates that accounting for the intentional introduction of economic plants is key to unravelling drivers of plant naturalization. Understanding why certain alien species become naturalized can shed light on biological invasion patterns. In this global analysis on thousands of taxa, van Kleunen and colleagues show that plant species of economic use are more likely to become naturalized, and that this underlies geographic patterns and phylogenetic signals in naturalization [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban land expansion is one of the most visible, irreversible, and rapid types of land cover/land use change in contemporary human history, and is a key driver for many environmental and societal changes across scales. Yet spatial projections of how much and where it may occur are often limited to short-term futures and small geographic areas. Here we produce a first empirically-grounded set of global, spatial urban land projections over the 21st century. We use a data-science approach exploiting 15 diverse datasets, including a newly available 40-year global time series of fine-spatial-resolution remote sensing observations. We find the global total amount of urban land could increase by a factor of 1.8–5.9, and the per capita amount by a factor of 1.1–4.9, across different socioeconomic scenarios over the century. Though the fastest urban land expansion occurs in Africa and Asia, the developed world experiences a similarly large amount of new development. Here the authors develop a set of global, long-term, spatial projections of urban land expansion for understanding the planet's potential urban futures. The global total amount of urban land increases by a factor of 1.8-5.9 over the 21st century, and the developed world experiences as much new urban development as the developing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture (e.g., rice paddies) has been considered one of the main emission sources responsible for the sudden rise of atmospheric methane concentration (XCH4) since 2007, but remains debated. Here we use satellite-based rice paddy and XCH4 data to investigate the spatial–temporal relationships between rice paddy area, rice plant growth, and XCH4 in monsoon Asia, which accounts for ~87% of the global rice area. We find strong spatial consistencies between rice paddy area and XCH4 and seasonal consistencies between rice plant growth and XCH4. Our results also show a decreasing trend in rice paddy area in monsoon Asia since 2007, which suggests that the change in rice paddy area could not be one of the major drivers for the renewed XCH4 growth, thus other sources and sinks should be further investigated. Our findings highlight the importance of satellite-based paddy rice datasets in understanding the spatial–temporal dynamics of XCH4 in monsoon Asia. The role of paddy rice agriculture in the spatial and temporal dynamics of atmospheric methane concentration remains unclear. Here, Zhang et al. show that regions with dense rice paddies have high satellite-based column averaged CH4 concentrations (XCH4), and that seasonal dynamics of XCH4 mirror those of paddy rice growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The resource-poor, isolated islands of Wallacea have been considered a major adaptive obstacle for hominins expanding into Australasia. Archaeological evidence has hinted that coastal adaptations in Homo sapiens enabled rapid island dispersal and settlement; however, there has been no means to directly test this proposition. Here, we apply stable carbon and oxygen isotope analysis to human and faunal tooth enamel from six Late Pleistocene to Holocene archaeological sites across Wallacea. The results demonstrate that the earliest human forager found in the region c. 42,000 years ago made significant use of coastal resources prior to subsequent niche diversification shown for later individuals. We argue that our data provides clear insights into the huge adaptive flexibility of our species, including its ability to specialize in the use of varied environments, particularly in comparison to other hominin species known from Island Southeast Asia.

Wildlife trade is a key driver of the biodiversity crisis. Unregulated, or under-regulated wildlife trade can lead to unsustainable exploitation of wild populations. International efforts to regulate wildlife mostly miss 'lower-value' species, such as those imported as pets, resulting in limited knowledge of trade in groups like reptiles. Here we generate a dataset on web-based private commercial trade of reptiles to highlight the scope of the global reptile trade. We find that over 35% of reptile species are traded online. Three quarters of this trade is in species that are not covered by international trade regulation. These species include numerous endangered or range-restricted species, especially hotspots within Asia. Approximately 90% of traded reptile species and half of traded individuals are captured from the wild. Exploitation can occur immediately after scientific description, leaving new endemic species especially vulnerable. Pronounced gaps in regulation imply trade is having unknown impacts on numerous threatened species. Gaps in monitoring demand a reconsideration of international reptile trade regulations. We suggest reversing the status-quo, requiring proof of sustainability before trade is permitted. There are gaps in international efforts to monitor the wildlife trade, with many species potentially being undetected by the established monitoring groups. Here the authors use an automated web search to document the sale of reptiles online, revealing over 36% of all known reptile species are in trade, including many missing from official databases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]