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Estuaries play an important role in connecting the global carbon cycle across the land-to-ocean continuum, but little is known about Australia's contribution to global CO2 emissions. Here we present an Australia-wide assessment, based on CO2 concentrations for 47 estuaries upscaled to 971 assessed Australian estuaries. We estimate total mean (±SE) estuary CO2 emissions of 8.67 ± 0.54 Tg CO2-C yr−1, with tidal systems, lagoons, and small deltas contributing 94.4%, 3.1%, and 2.5%, respectively. Although higher disturbance increased water-air CO2 fluxes, its effect on total Australian estuarine CO2 emissions was small due to the large surface areas of low and moderately disturbed tidal systems. Mean water-air CO2 fluxes from Australian small deltas and tidal systems were higher than from global estuaries because of the dominance of macrotidal subtropical and tropical systems in Australia, which have higher emissions due to lateral inputs. We suggest that global estuarine CO2 emissions should be upscaled based on geomorphology, but should also consider land-use disturbance, and climate. Australian estuaries shown to emit more CO2 per unit area than global estuaries due to the dominance of macrotidal subtropical and tropical tidal systems, while disturbance effects were minimal due to low overall disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is progressively redistributing species towards the Earth's poles, indicating widespread potential for ecosystem collapse. Detecting early-warning-signals and enacting adaptation measures is therefore a key imperative for humanity. However, detecting early-warning signals has remained elusive and has focused on exceptionally high-frequency and/ or long-term time-series, which are generally unattainable for most ecosystems that are under-sampled and already impacted by warming. Here, we show that a catastrophic phase-shift in kelp ecosystems, caused by range-extension of an overgrazing sea urchin, also propagates poleward. Critically, we show that incipient spatial-pattern-formations of kelp overgrazing are detectable well-in-advance of collapse along temperate reefs in the ocean warming hotspot of south-eastern Australia. Demonstrating poleward progression of collapse over 15 years, these early-warning 'incipient barrens' are now widespread along 500 km of coast with projections indicating that half of all kelp beds within this range-extension region will collapse by ~2030. Overgrazing was positively associated with deep boulder-reefs, yet negatively associated with predatory lobsters and subordinate abalone competitors, which have both been intensively fished. Climate-driven collapse of ecosystems is occurring; however, by looking equatorward, space-for-time substitutions can enable practical detection of early-warning spatial-pattern-formations, allowing local climate adaptation measures to be enacted in advance. Climate change is redistributing species poleward, threatening widespread socio-ecological disruption as key tipping-points are exceeded. This study examines space-time dynamics of kelp ecosystem collapse over a 15-year period along the warming coastline of eastern Tasmania and shows that an early-warning signal of kelp ecosystem collapse is recognisable well-in-advance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]