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The UK economy is facing an unusual level of uncertainty because of Brexit. This uncertainty primarily stems from the yet to be defined relationship between the UK and the EU but also from the economy's response to the new framework once it emerges. The UK government's White Paper, which set out its preferences for that new relationship, has failed to unite the government or Parliament, leaving open an entire spectrum of possible outcomes. Our central forecast under a ‘soft Brexit’ scenario is that the economy will grow at a pace that is consistent with its potential. This translates to annual GDP growth of 1.4 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent next year, which is broadly unchanged from our previous forecast. The risks to our GDP growth forecast are wider than before and tilted to the downside. As before, we condition our forecast on a gentle path of monetary policy normalisation with the next 25 basis point rate increase this month. On the fiscal side, we recommend that the government maintains its current level of spending (as a share of GDP) and raises the quality of public services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I assess a novel rule that was introduced in the UK in 2015. It gave the British government fiscal flexibility whenever GDP growth warranted it. This rule lasted just a year, but it had features worth exploring. I apply solution methods for models with occasionally-binding constraints to assess the demand stabilisation properties of state-contingent fiscal rules. First it is shown that fiscal flexibility can make recessions shallower. Second, it is suggested that GDP growth, rather than measures of the output gap, is a better indicator for triggering fiscal flexibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Debate around Wales' place in the United Kingdom has intensified over recent years, with radically differing visions for the union of the Welsh and UK governments emerging alongside growing (though still minority) support for Welsh independence. This article argues that these constitutional debates must be considered alongside Wales' current fiscal position. Wales' estimated fiscal deficit is reflective of long-standing economic underperformance as part of the UK, which we argue is unlikely to be addressed under current economic, fiscal and constitutional arrangements. On the other hand, it also suggests a difficult economic outlook for an independent Wales, which would require tough fiscal and economic choices to address Wales' apparent balance of payments deficit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the probability density forecasts reflected in the Bank of England's real GDP growth fan charts. Evaluation is carried out using tests that allow for data dependence and using two GDP growth estimates. Results suggest there are problems with the shorter horizon forecasts, but conclusions about the performance of longer-term forecasts depend to some extent on the GDP estimates used in the assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate that a Brexit deal that involved a smooth transition to a free trade agreement with the EU, as proposed by the Prime Minister, would ultimately lead the UK economy to be about 3½ per cent smaller than it would have been had the UK remained in the EU. According to our estimates, public sector net borrowing will be 3 per cent of GDP in 2020-21, 1 per cent of GDP higher than is consistent with the fiscal mandate set out by the previous Chancellor, Philip Hammond. At the same time, headline fiscal aggregates have been subject to significant data revisions, causing the net borrowing ratio to be higher relative to GDP and the net debt ratio to be lower. Net debt reached 80.3 per cent of GDP at the end of September, 1.2 percentage points of GDP less than a year earlier. With government investment running at around 2½ per cent of GDP we expect the government to remain in a net borrowing position of around 2 per cent of GDP beyond 2020. [Extracted from the article]

Highlights from the article: The short-term outlook for the UK economy is very murky indeed, with a significant risk that a severe economic downturn will begin within the next six months. Given the lack of time to renegotiate the existing EU withdrawal agreement that has been rejected by the UK Parliament, and the perceived political imperative not to further delay EU exit, there is a significant risk that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October without a deal. The UK current account deficit widened by £6.3 billion to £30.0 billion in the first quarter, or 5.6 per cent of GDP; the fifth-highest quarterly deficit on record as a percentage of GDP. Net migration continues to add to the supply of labour but has remained stable since 2016 as a sharp fall in EU net migration has been offset by higher net migrant inflows from non-EU countries. With government investment running at around 2½ per cent of GDP we expect the government to remain in a net borrowing position of around 2½ per cent of GDP beyond 2020.

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Bank of England, HM Treasury, Mizuho Research Institute Ltd, Office for National Statistics, Santander (UK) plc and by the members of the NiGEM users group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Bank of England, HM Treasury, Mizuho Research Institute Ltd, Office for National Statistics, Santander (UK) plc and by the members of the NiGEM users group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents an outlook for fiscal consolidation in Great Britain through 2017. Included is a chart detailing Britain's fiscal consolidation plans during the forecast period. It notes that the effects of quantitative easing/credit easing measures are hampered by low interest rates on risk-free assets. Predictions on the impact of the fiscal programme on output, employment, and liquidity are also provided, as well as the hysteresis effects.

The article discusses the economic prospects for Great Britain. Its economy is expected to expand by 1.3% in 2011 with growth rising to 2% per annum in 2012. Estimated trend rate of growth is 2.1% and economic growth above the trend rate is expected only by 2013. In the absence of fiscal tightening, economic growth is estimated to be around 0.8 percentage points higher. It indicates that its gross domestic product (GDP) growth is constrained by planned fiscal consolidation from 2011 to 2015.

The article discusses the outlook for the British economy in 2011 and 2012. Gross domestic product (GDP) increase is expected only at 1.4% in 2011 and 2% in 2012 which indicates that the British economy is not in the recovery phase. Consumer spending is projected to decline by 0.6% while further increase in oil prices is expected to increase inflation rate. It also discusses trends in various economic indicators in Great Britain including price and earnings, demand and public finances.

The article presents an economic forecast for Great Britain from 2007 to 2015. It cites that the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase by 1.3% in 2010, climbing to 1.7% in 2011 and 2.2% in 2012. It notes that business investment has recovered in the first quarter of 2010. Also mentioned is the reason why house prices play an important role in the forecast.

The article discusses economic forecasts for Great Britain in 2011 and 2012. Yearly growth rate is predicted to escalate to 2% in 2011 and 2.25% in 2012. General government spendings is expected to drop about .75% from gross domestic product growth in 2011 and 2012. In 2011, growth in employment is anticipated, but will be inadequate to absorb hikes in the labor force. Forecasts for prices and earnings, demand, household sector, supply, public finances and accumulation are discussed.

The article presents an economic forecast for Great Britain in 2009. It states that in the fourth quarter of 2009, an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) growth can still be expected due to a boost in consumption. Meanwhile, the author notes that while equity prices in the country are said to have rebounded during the first six months of 2009, unemployment in the country is also projected to peak in the first quarter of 2011.

The article focuses on the assessment of the statistical models in the measurement of the gross domestic product (GDP) and anticipation of the economic recession in Great Britain. It presents a flash estimates of the GDP growth of the region. It identifies the indicator variables which effectively predict the economic recession. Furthermore, it also shows a comparison of the nowcasts with the monthly GDP estimates of NIESR.

In this article the authors discuss the forecast and trends of the economy amid the global economic recession in Great Britain from 2004 to 2013. They note declines in the gross domestic product (GDP) and the production index. They forecast an overall increase by 1% on the economy of the region. Furthermore, they consider the cutback of the value added tax (VAT) and inventory as drivers for the economic growth of the country.

The article discusses the potential decrease of the economy in the Euro Area. It highlights the shrinking of the economy in Euro Area by 1.6 percent on quarterly basis. It noted the decrease of economic activity in the first quarter of 2009. It emphasizes that the forecast on the decline of economy came from both public and private sectors. The article also presents various charts and diagrams depicting the economic activity in the Euro Area including the contribution of stockbuilding to the growth of gross domestic product (GPD), inflation expectation and the prospects for the European Union.

The article forecasts the economic condition in Great Britain for 2009. The economy of the country is expected to worsen due to the weak performance of its domestic banking system. The problems on the access to credit for households and non-financial companies are projected to end. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth will decline by 5.8%, as well as the distribution output by 2.4%. Economic growth is estimated to deteriorate as a result of the worsening of the availability of credit within the country.

An overview is provided of the issues raised in the recent literature on the use of reaI-time data in the context of nowcasting and forecasting UK macroeconomic events. The ideas are illustrated through two specific applications using UK real-time data available over 1961-2006 and providing probability forecasts that could have been produced in real time over the past twenty years. In the first, we consider the reliability of first-release data on the components of UK aggregate demand by looking at forecasts of the probabiIity of substantial data revisions. In the second, we consider the estimation of the output gap, illustrating the uncertainty surrounding its measurement through density forecasts and focusing on its interpretation in terms of inflationary pressure through an event probability forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focuses on the forecast performance of the National Institute in Great Britain. Purposes of policy analysis; Measurements of economic growth of interest; Usability of traditional econometric model.

Investigates the historical forecastability of Great Britain output measures, using annual observations on Great Britain gross domestic product and industrial production. Growth rate of industrial production, 1700-2000; Key attributes of forecast; Use of linear time-series models.

Looks at the performance of the British economy in the year 2000 and considers its prospects for 2001. Adverse shocks that hit the British economy since the summer of 2000; Stock market influence on investments and consumption; Growth prospects in Great Britain and the rest of Europe; Productivity and unemployment in Britain; Fiscal position; Interest rate prospects.

Comments on the debate regarding the plans of Great Britain to join the European Monetary Union (EMU). Impact of EMU membership on foreign investments and financial services industry; Factors considered in the EMU membership; Details on the Comprehensive Spending Review; Forecast on the British economy.

Discusses Great Britain's economic outlook and conditions. Debate over the entry rate of the British pound into the European Monetary Union; Projected inflation rate; Tax harmonization with the European Union; Environmental taxes.

Discusses British economic conditions. Business confidence; Suspension and review of the Average Earnings Index; Issues regarding entry into the European Monetary Union; Fiscal policy; Concerns over the government's solvency following tax rate cuts; Economic prospects for 1999.

Analyses the accuracy of economic forecast and asymptomatic variance of inflation and growth on the United Kingdom economy by using a stochastic simulation empirical model. Background on stochastic simulation; Inflation dynamics, monetary policy and fiscal policy; Main interest in stochastic simulation; Standard errors and event probabilities.

Presents an analysis of economic developments in Great Britain in the 1990s and a comprehensive forecast. Gross domestic product; Trade volumes; Fixed investments forecast; Balance of payments output and employment; Wages and prices; Public sector finances.

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Bank of England, HM Treasury, Mizuho Research Institute Ltd, Santander (UK) plc and by the members of the NiGEM users group. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article comments on the economic implications of the possibility that Great Britain will leave the European Union (EU). The author analyzes a referendum that will give British citizens a chance to express their position on whether EU membership remains a national interest. Withdrawal from the EU is expected to reduce the level of output in the British economy. Also discussed is the impact of withdrawal on the country's exports, labor market and financial services industry.

The article presents an economic forecast for Great Britain. Based on the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM), Great Britain will recover from a weak labor, capital and energy productivity, with gross domestic product (GDP) fixed at around 2% per year. It is expected that the corporate and household sectors will maintain high levels of saving, despite a deficit in the public sector in 2012 and 2013. Estimates for prices and earnings are offered.

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Bank of England, HM Treasury, Mizuho Research Institute Ltd, the Office for National Statistics, Santander (UK) plc and by the members of the NiGEM users group. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Bank of England, HM Treasury, Mizuho Research Institute Ltd, the Office for National Statistics, Santander (UK) plc and by the members of the NiGEM users group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents an overview of the national monetary policies of countries around the globe. It maintains its forecast of a 50 percent chance of recession in Great Britain and a 30 percent probability of recession in the euro area. It predicts a 1.9 percent economic growth in the U.S. and Canada and 1.8 percent growth in Japan. It discusses the possible resolution to the euro area crisis.

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute’s Corporate Members: Abbey plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, HM Treasury, Nomura Research Institute Europe Ltd, and the Office for National Statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]