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Con le misure di quantitative easing adottate nello scorso quindicennio la politica monetaria è passata da una implementazione tecnica basata sulla scarsità di riserve ad una basata sull’abbondanza delle riserve. A loro volta i sistemi bancari hanno adattato i propri comportamenti all’abbondanza di riserve complicando il ritorno al precedente sistema. La questione riguarda anche la politica fiscale in quanto, con il rialzo dei tassi di interesse, l’abbondante liquidità bancaria è remunerata dalle banche centrali a tassi che erodono la loro profittabilità. La distribuzione della liquidità fra le banche commerciali europee e un poco noto meccanismo di ripartizione di costi e profitti fra le banche centrali dell’Eurosistema fanno sì che il sussidio de facto alle banche europee (quasi 120 miliardi all’anno) favorisca soprattutto i paesi d’oltralpe. Il paper aggiorna nozioni e vicende di politica monetaria già esposte in forma divulgativa in Cesaratto (2021a), anche a supporto didattico di colleghi e studenti.

Il lavoro introduce agli atti di un convegno tenuto presso l’Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei nel dicembre 2020, di celebrazione del cinquantesimo anniversario dello Statuto dei lavoratori: una riforma che costituisce un importante progresso nello sviluppo civile del paese. L’articolo illustra lo Statuto: il suo tentativo di conciliare, come previsto dalla Costituzione, le caratteristiche opposte del lavoro come sacrificio e come fondante della dignità sociale dei lavoratori; i suoi compromessi tra esigenze opposte del processo lavorativo (stabilità e flessibilità dell’impiego, la libertà dei datori nelle assunzioni e la necessità di evitare discriminazioni, e così via). The paper introduces the contributions to a conference held at the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei in December 2020 celebrating the fiftieth anniversary of the Italian Statuto dei lavoratori (Charter of Workers’ Rights): a reform that represents an important progress in Italian civil development. The paper illustrates the Statuto: its background in the attempt to conciliate, in light of the Italian Constitution, the twin and opposite characteristics of labour as sacrifice and as contributing to the social dignity of workers; and its compromises between opposite needs of the labour process (stability and flexibility of employment, employers’ freedom in hiring and the need to avoid discrimination, and so on). JEL codes: J08, J28, J48, J53, J83

L’articolo mostra come Sylos Labini abbia contribuito a sviluppare un approccio interdisciplinare alla teoria economica. Si evidenzia che questo approccio ha diversi elementi di congiunzione con gli orientamenti eterodossi in economia, in particolare con quell’ambito della corrente istituzionalista che viene definito Original Institutional Economics e con il cosiddetto neoistituzionalismo sociologico. In particolare, Sylos Labini ha approfondito la commistione tra i diversi campi del sapere negli studi che ha dedicato alle classi sociali. Si proverà dunque a ricostruire come queste indagini diventino: i) il baricentro di una riflessione organica sui complessi rapporti tra politica-economia-società storicamente presenti in Italia; ii) una sorta di campo tematico all’interno del quale Sylos Labini affina la propria concezione del lavoro scientifico dell’economista e approfondisce come tra economia e istituzioni vi sia un rapporto di profonde interconnessioni. The paper deals with a specific part of Paolo Sylos Labini's scientific work promoting an interdisciplinary approach in economics. We suggest that Sylos Labini is an 'early promoter' of the contemporary heterodox orientations in economics. His contribution shares, indeed, relevant features with the Original Institutional Economics and sociological New-Institutionalism. More precisely, the paper focuses on Sylos Labini's investigations on the development of social classes in Italy. In these studies, the author developed an interdisciplinary approach mixing analytical tools belonging to both economic and sociology. We argue that this approach should be considered: i) the core of an organic reflection on the complex relationships between different level of analysis (i.e., political-economic-social ones) in the historical reconstruction of social classes in Italy; ii) a paramount example of Sylos Labini's idea of how economists should deal with scientific research. JEL codes: A12, B31, B40; B52; Z1

Il paper elabora uno schema di “riproduzione” capitalistica che delinea una condizione di “zero stazionario” della “centralizzazione del capitale” a livello internazionale. Sviluppando le indagini sui possibili nessi tra squilibri commerciali, centralizzazione del capitale e “imperialismo”, le proprietà di esistenza e stabilità dello stato stazionario della centralizzazione vengono esaminate come potenziali “condizioni economiche” di deterioramento o di pacificazione delle relazioni internazionali.

L’articolo ripercorre il percorso di ricerca dell’autore nell’ambito dell’economia dello sviluppo, con particolare riguardo alle esperienze del Brasile e dell’America Latina. Negli anni l’autore ha contribuito al dibattito con articoli accademici, saggi, fiabe economiche, e riflessioni sull’esperienza personale in campo politico. I principali temi affrontati sono la distribuzione dei redditi, le politiche industriali, le crisi debitorie, i prezzi delle materie prime, l’inflazione e le politiche di stabilizzazione, e la crescita in Brasile. This paper surveys my research on development economics, undertaken in the context of the historical experiences of Brazil and Latin America. The research consists of academic papers, essays, economic fables, and reflections on my experiences in policy making. It spans different fields, including income distribution, industrial policies, dollar constraints and debt crises, commodity booms and coffee valorization, high inflation and stabilization policies, and Brazil’s growth record. Jel Codes: F34, N16, O11, O41

Il paper è un contributo alla serie “Recollections of Eminent Economists” che la Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review e Moneta e Credito pubblicano dal 1979. Irma Adelman è l’unica donna ad aver contribuito finora, in parte a causa della scomparsa prematura di altre eminenti economiste come Joan Robinson. In questo lavoro, Adelman ricorda la sua biografia personale e accademica, che va dall’infanzia in Romania alle esperienze di discriminazione nel mondo accademico americano. The paper is a contribution to the series "Recollections of Eminent Economists" that the "Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review" and "Moneta e Credito" ran since 1979. Irma Adelman is the only woman economist to have contributed so far, partly due to the untimely passing away of other prominent women economists such as Joan Robinson. In this work, Adelman recalls her personal and academic biography, ranging from childhood in Romania to her experiences of discrimination in US academia. JEL codes: B31, O15, O20, A12

Questo scritto è dedicato alla memoria di Terenzio Cozzi, economista che è stato in Italia un importante esponente della scuola neokeynesiana di Cambridge. Il paper ripercorre la sua formazione all’Università Cattolica di Milano e poi a Cambridge, dove ottenne il PhD in economia sviluppando il modello di dinamica strutturale di Pasinetti, la sua carriera accademica in Italia all’Università di Torino, l’opera teorica principalmente dedicata alla teoria della crescita, la manualistica di economia politica, punto di riferimento della formazione universitaria e post-universitaria non mainstream in particolare tra la fine degli anni ottanta e gli anni novanta del secolo scorso, nonché l’importante attività istituzionale.

La politica monetaria, negli ultimi anni, è spesso invocata come una panacea per una grave recessione che sta interessando l'Europa, in particolare l'Italia a partire dal 2010. Questo documento esaminerà come la politica monetaria ha reagito in tempi di crisi prima della riforma valutaria implementata con EMS, il principale passo verso la moneta unica. In questo lavoro sono state utilizzate le fonti delle relazioni della Banca d'Italia per evidenziare il ruolo svolto da questa istituzione nella politica monetaria e nell'uso di questa politica. Monetary policy, in recent years, is often invoked as a panacea for a severe recession that is affecting Europe, in particular Italy from 2010. This paper will examine how monetary policy reacted in times of crisis before the currency reform implemented with EMS, the main step towards the single currency. In this paper we were used the sources of the Relations of the Bank of Italy to highlight the role played by this institution in the monetary policy and the use of this policy. JEL: N01, E52, E58

Introducing the publication of a long 1956 letter by Franco Modigliani (FM) to Paolo Sylos Labini (PSL) on the draft of PSL’s book, Oligopoly and Technical Progress, the paper critically reviews the theoretical background of FM’s comments, showing how the pre-Keynesian roots dominate the so-called neoclassical synthesis as well as its shaky foundations. The paper also discusses FM’s interpretation of PSL’s oligopoly theory, as well as their collaboration (and differences) on policy issues, such as their opposition to the 100% money wage indexation adopted in Italy from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s. Introducendo la pubblicazione di una lunga lettera del 1956 di Franco Modigliani (FM) a Paolo Sylos Labini (PSL) sulla stesura del libro di PSL, Oligopolio e Progresso Tecnico, la rivista rivede criticamente il background teorico dei commenti di FM, mostrando come le radici il pre-keynesiane dominano la cosiddetta sintesi neoclassica e le sue fondamenta instabili. Il documento discute anche l'interpretazione di FM della teoria dell'oligopolio di PSL, così come la loro collaborazione (e differenze) su questioni politiche, come la loro opposizione all'indicizzazione del 100% dei salari monetari adottata in Italia dalla metà degli anni '70 alla metà degli anni '80. JEL: B31, D43, E13, E64

The paper has two main objects. The first, which is essentially descriptive, is to provide an account of British direct investment in Western Europe in relation to British direct investment as a whole. In attempting this the authors make uses not only of official data but also of some of the preliminary results of a private enquiry undertaken by the authors themselves. The second objective is to consider, so far as the data and economic theory permit, the costs and benefits accruing to the United Kingdom from direct investment in Western Europe. This has both long and short run aspects. The principal conclusion of the paper is that while the official and other data available make it possible to give a fairly comprehensive statistical description of British direct investment in Europe, it is not yet possible to make any confident judgement on the real costs and benefits of such investment. JEL: F21

In a recent paper F. Modigliani and T. Padoa-Schioppa analyzed the characteristics of an economy, such as Italy’s, in which wages are 100% protected against inflation through the mechanism of wage indexation to prices. These characteristics are summarized in 11 propositions. In this paper the authors address issues related to three of these propositions. More precisely, they show that, outside of the very particular hypothesis adopted by Modigliani and Padoa-Schioppa regarding the range of price adjustment, a) no level of production compatible with price stationarity exists in the context of their model; b) the inflationary process does not depend solely on the cost of production being higher than that compatible with price stationarity. JEL: E31, E24

Le ragioni per cui gli economisti non sono d'accordo sono complessi . Questo documento è un caso di studio nei limiti della ricerca empirica come mezzo per risolvere queste differenze . Esamina le prove generata dall'esperimento 1979-1982 monetarista e rivela le strategie diverse scuole di pensiero hanno impiegato per costruire radicalmente diverse interpretazioni degli eventi . Contrariamente a al famoso detto di Friedman che " le differenze tra economisti sono empiriche piuttosto che teorico" , questo documento giunge alla conclusione che gli economisti sono divisi da questioni che corrono molto più profondo The reasons why economists disagree are complex. This paper is a case study in the limitations of empirical research as a means of resolving these differences. It reviews the evidence generated by the 1979-82 monetarist experiment and reveals the strategies different schools of thought have employed to construct radically different interpretations of events. Contrary to to Friedman’s famous dictum that “the differences between economists are empirical rather than theoretical”, this paper concludes that economists are divided by issues that run far deeper. JEL: N14

This paper presents a detailed discussion of inflation in Italy during the 1980s. The early 1980s witnessed disinflation but in the second-half inflation has re-emerged. The paper is relevant to the EMS debate, between the ‘monetarists’ (advocating immediate and irreversible fixity of exchange rates) and the ‘economists’ (warning of systemic rigidities and urging caution). The evidence is mixed: the EMS seems to have been accompanied by a convergence of inflation, but at a cost of stubborn unemployment suggesting that the policy has not been cost-free. Italian data is reviewed in the context of this discussion. JEL Codes: E32, E42, F15

Il presente documento propone un modello oligopolistico con ladiscriminazione deiprezzi coerente con il sistema bancario italiano . Il documento presenta le caratteristiche del sistema bancario italiano che si vedono alla base di questo approccio di fondo : l'analisi è limitata alle banche commerciali . Dati sui tassi di interesse mostrano ampie disparità regionali dal 1969 ad oggi. This paper proposes an oligopolistic model with price discrimination as consistent with the known traditional qualities of the Italian banking system. The paper presents the background characteristics of the Italian banking system that are seen to underlie this approach: the analysis is restricted to commercial banks. Interest rate data show large regional disparities since 1969 to date. The model is consistent with the prediction that competition will shrink regional interest rate differentials, and the spread between loan and deposit rates in the Mezzogiorno. JEL: F15, F36, G21

The banking system of the Italian Mezzogiorno is living a difficult season. The major banks were absorbed by banks external to the area, while many small local banks are still operating in marginal market niches. Starting from this point, the paper deals with the problem of the geographical articulation of the banking system, and of the role of the local banks. The main conclusion is that local banks are indispensable for a regional banking system to be able to favour the regional economic development. However, local banks cannot remain isolated relying on informative advantages only, but they must become part of networks with both local and national banks. Finally, the paper analyses the structure and performance of Campania’s regional banking system.

This paper examines the scale of the demographic problem facing OECD economies and the labour market trends among older workers, considering the macroeconomic implications of welfare provision for ageing on living standards and fiscal balances. The nature and the scale of incentives for early retirement are then discussed, concluding that welfare systems in OECD countries will come under increasing pressure as the share of public pension payments on total welfare outlays could rise dramatically over the coming decades. The paper illustrates some of the recent OECD recommendations for responding to the challenges posed by ageing societies in the context of diverse social welfare systems and concludes that policies are urgently needed in a number of countries to pursue two fundamental objectives: increasing the average number of years individuals spend active in the labour force and raising the sources of provision for an adequate retirement income. JEL Codes: H55, H53, J14, E62 Keywords: Ageing, Demographics, Macroeconomics, Older Workers, Pension, Public Pension

The paper surveys the main theories of income distribution in their relationship with the theories of economic growth. First, the Classical approach is considered, focusing on the Ricardian theory. Then the neoclassical theory is discussed, highlighting its origins (Bohm-Bawerk, Wicksell, Clark) and the role of the aggregate production function. The emergence of a "Keynesian" theory of income distribution in the wake of Harrod's model of growth is then recalled together with the surprising resurgence of the neoclassical theory (following the contributions of Solow and Meade). But, as the paper shows, the neoclassical theory of income distribution lacks logical consistency and has shaky foundations, as has been revealed by the severe critiques moved to the neoclassical production function. Mainstream economic literature circumvents this problem by simply ignoring it; while the models of endogenous growth exclude the issue of distribution theory from their consideration. However, while mainstream economics bypasses the problems of income distribution, this is too relevant an issue to be ignored and a number of new research lines, briefly surveyed, try new approaches to it. JEL Codes: O41, E25 Keywords: Distribution, Economic Growth, Growth, Income Distribution, Income

This paper analyses the roles which Belgium and Italy have played in the process of European monetary integration. It focusses on Belgian and Italian attitudes towards European integration and EMU, exchange rate policies, key concepts of the EMU strategies and concrete contributions. Overall, Belgium and Italy played an important and pace-setting role in the process of European monetary integration. The main difference is that Belgium has been a constant and consistent "pace-setter" in monetary matters, whereas Italy was mainly active in the 1980s. Furthermore, the paper shows how important it was for a country to achieve a sound economic performance, especially a stable exchange rate, in order to have influence on the European monetary scene. JEL Codes: F31, F36 Keywords: EMU, Exchange Rates, Integration

The paper examines the relationship between banking and securities activities in the light of financial market developments (securitisation, institutionalization of investment, emergence of complex financial instruments, conglomeration and consolidation), with particular reference to Europe. The enhanced links between banking and securities businesses have generated increased and new risks to financial institutions. However, banks' stability remains crucial for the stability of the financial system as a whole, because of their unique role as provider of liquidity. The paper also addresses the implications of the banking-securities combination for regulatory and supervisory arrangements. The exporting of prudential requirements traditional in banking (such as capital ratios) into the securities field, and the importing of securities regulation (such as transparency requirements) into the banking sector, can be deemed mutually beneficial. As regards supervision, there is a need to monitor the continued effectiveness of the current framework. This entails strengthening co-operation both at the national level and on a cross-border basis among sectoral supervisors in the micro-prudential field, and between them and central banks in the macro-prudential field. JEL Codes: G21, G28, G10 Keywords: Bank, Banking, Financial Institution, Financial Market, Securities

This paper analyzes the dynamic of the international debt of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC), along with the socio-economic development. The structure of the paper is the following: a) the first part of the paper analyzes the dynamic of the structure of debt and socio-economic development (using 14 variables) of 34 HIPC during the period 198797, using a multi statistical analysis; b) the second part analyzes the relation between economic development and the structure of debt (period 1971-1998) for three benchmark countries (Niger, Bolivia and Tanzania); c) in the final part, employing a cross section analysis, the paper verifies the relation between one social indicator (life expectancy) and the international debt structure for the 34 HIPC. The main finding of the paper is that social and economic development is positively related to the debt stock, and it has a negative relation with the interest export ratio. Thus for the HIPC a reduction in debt service would be a better strategy than reducing the debt stock. JEL Codes: F34, O19 Keywords: Debt, Development, International Debt

The paper shows that fiscal policy and tax incentives are more effective than monetary policy and monetary incentives in supporting a regional development policy among European regions. Anyway, only recently the EU Commission agreed that member countries can use tax incentives instead of monetary ones to support new investment in European less developed areas, but she still does not permit that a member state can apply a differentiated fiscal policy on a regional basis. In fact, according to the Commission, a reduced tax rate for growth purposes in European less developed areas has the same effect as a working aid for those firms located in these areas, which is forbidden by the Code of conduct that regulates fiscal competition among member states. The paper shows this interpretation is not correct and also demonstrates that a regional fiscal policy differentiated among areas inside the same member state can be supported without violate the sound principles of fiscal free competition incorporated in the Code of Conduct. JEL Codes: E62, R58 Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Policy, Regional Development, Regional, Tax

This paper focuses on the scope for a higher level of output and faster productivity growth to ease future fiscal pressures stemming from demographic developments in OECD countries over the next fifty years. After concluding that, without substantial reforms, pressure on government spending linked to ageing populations (both on pensions and health expenditures), will in general result in significant increases in expenditures to GDP ratios, the paper examines how these pressures might be redressed. Responses which focus on achieving an increase in the average number of years individuals spend active in the labour force and raising the level as well as widening the sources of individual provision of retirement income are recommended. Increasing output (through lower structural unemployment and higher female and elderly workers' participation rates) and its rate of growth (through gains in productivity) are seen as offering a complementary, though limited, response. JEL Codes: H55, O40, J14, J11, J26 Keywords: Ageing, Demographics, Expenditure, Growth, Pension, Population

Securitised financial flows to emerging market economies have become an important feature of the global capital flows. The principal focus of this paper is on an in-depth analysis of current trends in securitised financial flows. It lays special emphasis on private portfolio equity investment into the emerging market economies. The paper begins with the analysis of the process of stimulation of these flows, and identifies the institutional, structural and non-cyclical factors behind them. One of the points it emphasises is the progressively important role of institutional investors, which is the causal factor behind a significant increase in the quantum of portfolio investment into the emerging market economies. These flows were adversely affected by the financial crises of the 1990s. The subject matter of this paper also includes two of the most important policy issues, namely, the "hot money and cold money" issue and the volatility issue. JEL Codes: G11, O16, F32, P33 Keywords: Capital Flows, Financial Flows, Portfolio

The banking system of the Italian Mezzogiorno is living a difficult season. The major banks were absorbed by banks external to the area, while many small local banks are still operating in marginal market niches. Starting from this point, the paper deals with the problem of the geographical articulation of the banking system, and of the role of the local banks. The main conclu-sion is that local banks are indispensable for a regional banking system to be able to favour the regional economic development. However, local banks cannot remain isolated relying on informative advantages only, but they must become part of networks with both local and national banks. Finally, the paper analyses the structure and performance of Campania's regional banking system. JEL Codes: G21

On the basis of the UNDP data used to calculate the Human Development Index (HDI), the paper applies a methodology to determine a different development index able to show disequilibria between the different aspects of development (in this case income, life expectancy and education). The basic idea is that the concept of total substitutability between the variables utilized to calculate the HDI must be abandoned, and it is therefore important to take into account the unbalance between the various aspects characterizing the development level when calculating the index. The author utilizes the concept of the social sustainability of development over time, assuming that it will show a higher value with a more even balance between the various aspects of development. The concave average methodology proposed in Casadio Tarabusi ePalazzi (2004) is able to "penalize" development levels proportionally to the disequilibrium of the variables utilized to measure it. In the paper the new indicator is calculated for 162 countries for the years 1997-2001. Comparison between HDI and the new index shows notable differences not only in the ranking of the countries, but also in the time dynamics of the two indicators, now of the opposite sign for many countries. Finally, utilizing multivariate statistical analysis the presence of disequilibria in the various countries is evidenced together with their dynamics over time. JEL Codes: C43, O10, O15, Q01 Keywords: Development, Education, Human Development, Indice

Thirlwall’s 1979 balance of payments constrained growth model predicts that a country’s long run growth of GDP can be approximated by the ratio of the growth of real exports to the income elasticity of demand for imports assuming negligible effects from real exchange rate movements. The paper surveys developments of the model since then, allowing for capital flows, interest payments on debt, terms of trade movements, and disaggregation of the model by commodities and trading partners. Various tests of the model are discussed, and an extensive list of papers that have examined the model is presented. JEL: F32; F40; F43

After recalling the financial origin of the crisis and the persistent worldwide fragility of the financial sector, and after citing papers which before 2007 had pointed out the elements of systemic fragility of the US and world economy, the paper illustrates the cultural roots of the crisis, namely the economic views which favoured deregulation policies: the fallacy of the invisible hand of the market and a simplistic view of uncertainty, to which Keynesian uncertainty is opposed, with the consequent underevaluation of the risks of systemic instability. JEL: E44, G01

In this paper a distinction is made between the immediate technical-financial causes that unleashed the crisis in the United States, and its macroeconomic causes, which also explain its international transmission. Two formal paradigmatic models are considered. The first is Li’s formula on default correlation (“The Formula that Killed Wall Street”), whose misuse gave rise to the crisis. The second is the international financial multiplier set forth by Paul Krugman. After examining these two models, the paper concludes that, contrary to widespread opinion, the crisis was indeed foreseen by some economists, who, coming from the non-mainstream side of the profession, were largely ignored. JEL: G01, F3, E44

The paper focuses on theoretical aspects of the relationship between the profit rate and the interest rate. Two roughly opposite approaches emerge in the literature: in a first one, the interest rate determines the profit rate, and therefore income distribution; in a second one, the profit rate regulates the interest rate, once distribution is already determined. The introduction of the condition that bank capital receives a profit rate at least equal to the general one makes it possible to conceptualize the interest rate as the endogenously determined price of the commodity ‘loan’, and the central bank rate as the price of a ‘bank input’. JEL codes: E11, E43, G21 Keywords: Interest rate, Rate of profit, Bank profitability, Marx, Monetary policy

Il saggio offre una breve ricostruzione delle alterne fortune dello Statuto dei Lavoratori, interpretate alla luce dell’evoluzione del pensiero economico sul ruolo del mercato, e in particolare del mercato del lavoro, e sul capovolgimento che è stato fatto del ruolo e delle finalità delle politiche del lavoro in relazione alle politiche macroeconomiche. Si argomenta che si deve a questo capovolgimento di ruoli gran parte dei problemi che attraversano oggi le nostre economie. Si conclude che le relazioni industriali e il mondo del lavoro devono entrare di diritto nell’ambito della politica industriale per l’importanza che l’accumulazione di saperi distinti e collettivi all’interno dell’impresa riveste per l’innovazione delle imprese e del sistema economico di un paese, oltre che per ragioni di giustizia. The paper summarizes the varying fortunes of the Charter of Workers’ Rights, interpreted in light of the evolution of economic thinking on the role of the market – especially of the labour market – and on the overturning of employment policy in relation to macroeconomic policy. It is argued that this overturning underlies most of the problems that our economies face. The author concludes that industrial relations and the world of labour should enter in the remit of industrial policy: for the relevance that the accumulation of individual and collective know-how within firms have for innovation, and for reasons of justice. JEL codes: J5; J23; E24

Partendo da un’analisi del debito di Sylos Labini (2003) e Pasinetti (1998), il presente articolo re-esamina criticamente le raccomandazioni di politica economica suggerite dalle teorie che scoraggiano l’intervento dello stato e sostengono l’austerità, incluse l’equivalenza ricardiana, lo spiazzamento, e la struttura analitica IS-LM. Questo lavoro si fonda su un’analisi ampia dei dati per poi concentrarsi su tre modelli econometrici: un primo modello di correzione dell’errore vettoriale (VEC) analizza la relazione tra debito pubblico e PIL nel lungo periodo; un modello di autoregressione vettoriale multidimensionale (VAR) testa la relazione tra produzione, componenti del debito, differenziale dei tassi di interesse (spread) e tasso di cambio nel breve periodo; e un modello VAR aggiuntivo esamina il saldo primario nelle sue componenti, entrate e spese. Infine, ispirandosi a Sylos Labini (2003), il lavoro conclude con una nota a proposito del ruolo dell’investimento e della relazione basso investimento-bassa crescita del reddito in Italia. Starting from a Sylos Labini’s (2003) and Pasinetti’s (1998) debt analysis, this article critically reviews the policy recommendations suggested by theories which discourage state intervention and support austerity, including the Ricardian equivalence, the crowding out, and the IS-LM analytical framework. This work relies on a wide-ranging data analysis and on three econometric models: a vector error correction (VEC) model analyses the relation between public debt and GDP in the long-run; a vector auto-regression model (VAR) tests the relation between GDP and the component of debt, interest rates spread and exchange rate in the short-run; and an additional VAR model examines primary balance components including fiscal spending and revenues. Finally, inspired by Sylos-Labini (2003), the paper concludes with a reflection on the role of investment and on the viscous circle, low investment-low growth in Italy. JEL codes:E60, E62, E32

L’adesione ad un’unione monetaria e l’ancoraggio valutario rispetto a una divisa di riferimento possono risultare vantaggiosi per le economie più instabili e le cui istituzioni abbiano stentato, nel tempo, a godere di adeguata credibilità. La trasparenza dell’autorità monetaria e la capacità di veicolare chiaramente gli obiettivi di policy sono particolarmente rilevanti nei paesi emergenti: da ciò dipende la credibilità dell’istituzione e, quindi, l’efficacia delle politiche. Questo contributo analizza il ruolo che la trasparenza e la chiarezza delle comunicazioni ufficiali dell’Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) hanno nel formarne la credibilità agli occhi degli agenti economici e nel ridurre l’incertezza sulle politiche future. Sulla base delle comunicazioni ufficiali rilasciate dall’ECCB si stima l’indice di leggibilità Flesh-Kincaid, se ne osserva l’evoluzione nel tempo e si propongono diversi modelli econometrici volti a verificare l’ipotesi secondo cui una banca centrale chiara e credibile possa, mediante le proprie dichiarazioni, agevolare l’accumulazione di riserve in valuta estera che, in un regime di cambio ancorato al dollaro, costituiscono la principale prerogativa della stessa. Joining a currency union and establishing a peg with a reference currency can enhance economic stability and institutional credibility of historically unstable economies. Central banks’ transparency and their ability to communicate policy objectives are particularly relevant in emerging countries: these aspects determine the credibility of monetary authorities and the efficacy of their strategies. This paper sheds light on the role that transparency and clarity of communications released by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) have on shaping its credibility and on reducing uncertainty about future policies. Starting from official statements released by the ECCB, text mining tools are applied to estimate the Flesh-Kincaid readability index and to observe its evolutions over time. Several econometric models are estimated to investigate the negative relation between the accumulation of foreign assets retained by the ECCB and the complexity of its official statements. JEL codes: E00, C01, E40, E50

Ludwig Erhard, nell’ambito di una più ampia discussione su contenuti, usi e abusi, dell’economia sociale di mercato. Più che su specifici indirizzi di politica economica, in gran parte condivisi, Einaudi ed Erhard convergono nel mettere in luce l’importanza dell’acquisizione della cultura mediante l’istruzione, la formazione del carattere, l’esercizio della virtù, la pratica della libertà come imprescindibili fondamenti morali dell’economia di mercato. Dunque economia morale (non sociale) di mercato. Ci si chiede, in conclusione, se sia possibile condividere questi fondamenti senza necessariamente aderire alle ricette dell’economia sociale di mercato. The paper illustrates the convergence of ideas between Luigi Einaudi’s and Ludwig Erhard’s liberalisms, in the context of a wider discussion on the meaning, the uses and misuses, of “social market economy”. Beside shared views on policy issues, they both stress the importance of the acquisition of culture through education, the formation of indvidual character, the practice of freedom and of virtue as fundamental moral underpinnings of the market economy. Therefore, a moral (not social) market economy. The point is whether one has to agree with the policies of the social market economy to support these values. JEL codes: A13, B29, B31

Il lavoro inquadra il possibile utilizzo delle monete digitali all’interno di sistemi di pagamento privati non regolamentati, fondati su registri decentralizzati, senza l’intervento di banche centrali o altri intermediari. Con riferimento all’esperienza del Bitcoin, si discute se possa essere una valida alternativa ai mezzi di scambio tradizionali, mettendo in evidenza alcuni aspetti critici dello schema che ne permette la circolazione. Il recente andamento di questa criptovaluta sembra legato più a motivi finanziari che non ad esigenze transattive, in contrasto con le finalità originarie. The paper deals with digital currencies and their use in private, not regulated, payment systems. These are based on a decentralized ledger, free from central banks or other financial intermediaries. With regard to the Bitcoin, one wonders if it could be an alternative to the existing means of exchange, highlighting some critical aspects of its transfer scheme. Recent developments suggest that this cryptocurrency meets financial motives rather than payment needs, conflicting with its initial purposes. JEL codes: E40, E42

Il pensiero ordoliberale è stato oggetto di grande attenzione negli ultimi anni. I cultori del diritto antitrust hanno distinto fra l’ordoliberalismo e altri tipi di neoliberalismi, con riferimento alle possibili limitazioni da imporre all’autonomia dei privati. L’articolo è dedicato in primo luogo all’analisi del modo in cui i primi ordoliberali hanno affrontato la questione delle condizioni generali di contratto, e all’impatto della tesi di tali studiosi sulla successiva disciplina tedesca ed europea. Ci si sofferma sulla differenza, nella trattazione del tema, fra l’approccio europeo e quello statunitense. Ancora oggi il neoliberalismo d’Oltreoceano porta a un intervento minore sul contratto rispetto a quello che si registra in Europa, riconducibile alla cultura ordoliberale. Ordoliberalism has been recently the object of many studies. Antitrust lawyers distinguish between ordoliberalism and other kinds of neoliberalism, with reference to limitations on private parties’ autonomy. This paper focuses on the way in which ordoliberals treated the question of general terms and conditions of contracts. Focus is made also on the difference between the European and the US approaches on the topic. It is found that still today the US neoliberal approach affects contracts less than the European ordoliberal one. JEL codes: K12, K21, K15

L’analisi economica dei fattori alla base della domanda elettorale di populismo è ancora a uno stadio iniziale, nonostante i significativi progressi determinati da un numero crescente di studi. In questo lavoro ci proponiamo di fornire una prima rassegna dei contributi chiave forniti dalla letteratura economica sul populismo e di analizzare, tramite una analisi multidimensionale, le principali caratteristiche del profilo dell’elettore populista, alla luce delle opinioni pubbliche fornite dall’indagine Eurobarometro nel 2017. The economic analysis of the factors underlying the electoral demand for populism is still at an early stage, despite the significant progress made by a growing number of studies. In this paper we aim to provide a first overview of the key contributions by the economic literature on populism, and to analyze, through a multidimensional analysis, the main characteristics of the populist voter profile, in light of the public opinions provided by the Eurobarometer survey in 2017. Jel Codes: D72, E44, G01

L’articolo vuole riportare alla luce il contributo delle economiste all’evoluzione del pensiero economico italiano. È un primo passo nella direzione di colmare la sostanziale ignoranza su chi fossero le pioniere della disciplina economica in Italia andandone ad identificare i principali contributi negli articoli pubblicati dalle riviste economiche italiane nel periodo che va dagli anni ’30 agli anni ’70. The paper aims at shedding light on the contributions by women economists to the evolution of the Italian economic thought in a recent past. It is a first attempt to fill the substantial ignorance about who were women pioneers of economics in Italy and how they contributed to the discipline, identifying the evolution of their visibility and trends in their research fields’ specialization in the articles published by Italian economic journals from the 1930s to the 1970s. Jel Codes: A14, A11, B31, B54

Il lavoro confronta due approcci alternativi per la soluzione del conflitto tra la necessità di coordinamento internazionale in ambito finanziario e le esigenze di autonomia delle politiche nazionali. Uno è l'approccio proposto da John Maynard Keynes per riformare il sistema monetario internazionale nel secondo dopoguerra. L'altro è l'approccio seguito con la costituzione dell'eurozona e lo sviluppo del suo sistema dei pagamenti. The paper contrasts two opposed approaches to managing the tensions between international financial coordination and national political autonomy. The first, a road not taken, is John Maynard Keynes’s proposal to reform the postwar international financial system. The second is the approach taken with the establishment of the eurozone and the development of its settlement and payment system. JEL codes: F33, E42, F02

Questo lavoro analizza il possibile legame in Italia tra la disuguaglianza dei redditi e il livello di illegalità presente in due ambiti della vita sociale ed economica (omicidi e lavoro irregolare). I risultati di un’analisi econometrica a livello regionale mostrano che la presenza di lavoro irregolare e di un elevato tasso di omicidi è responsabile di una diminuzione complessiva del reddito, particolarmente pronunciata per i redditi bassi, con inevitabile aumento della disuguaglianza. This paper analyses the possible link between income inequality and the level of illegality present in two areas of social and economic life (homicides and irregular work) in Italy. The results of an econometric analysis at the regional level show that the presence of irregular work and a high rate of homicides are responsible for an overall decrease in income, which is particularly pronounced for low incomes, leading to an increase in inequality. JEL codes: D31, J01, K4

Questo è il contributo di apertura della nuova serie di "Reminiscenze di illustri economisti". Con questo nome la rivista (e la precedente serie della consorella in inglese, la BNL Quarterly Review) pubblicavano saggi autobiografici in cui economisti affermati descrivono il loro percorso intellettuale e riflettono su sviluppi recenti della disciplina. In questo articolo, A.P. Thirlwall riassume la sua biografia intellettuale e personale, trattanto dal lavoro nel Regno Unito alla consulenza in vari paesi in via di sviluppo. Nella discussione, particolare enfasi è data all'ispirazione Keynesiana delle analisi. The paper is the first inaugural contribution to the new series of "Recollections of Eminent Economists". Under this name, the previous series of the journal used to publish autobiographic essays in which renowned economists described their scientific path and reflected on the recent developments of the discipline. In this work, A.P. Thirlwall recalls his personal and academic biography, ranging from employment in the UK to consultancy work in developing countries, and comments on the reception of his main works. Throughout the discussion, the author emphasizes the Keynesian inspiration of his analyses. JEL codes: B31, A11, O11, O42 Keywords: A.P. Thirlwall, Recollections, Economic Development, Thirlwall’s Law

Questo articolo analizza le determinanti e gli effetti di una stretta creditizia in Italia, all’interno della teoria monetaria della produzione elaborata da Augusto Graziani. Sosteniamo che la restrizione creditizia, tra le altre cose, dipende da un declino nella domanda aggregata. Dal punto di vista empirico, ciò è mostrato per Italia, Francia e Germania. Tuttavia, si evidenzia che una stretta monetaria decisa dalla Banca Centrale Europea – quindi comune ai tre paesi – non induce una riduzione statisticamente significativa del credito in Italia. Questo risultato probabilmente è causato della scarsa sostituibilità del credito bancario come fonte di finanziamento, dato che la struttura produttiva italiana è prevalentemente caratterizzata da piccole e medie imprese. This paper deals with the causes and the effects of a credit restriction in Italy, within the theoretical framework of the monetary theory of production, as elaborated by Augusto Graziani. It will be argued that credit restriction ultimately depends on the decline of aggregate demand. Empirically, this view is supported for Italy, France and Germany. However, a monetary policy tightening implemented by the European Central Bank does not lead to a significant credit reduction in Italy, probably due to the low degree of substitutability of bank financing, given that the Italian production structure is mainly characterized by small and medium enterprises. JEL codes: E12, E51, E52 Keywords: monetary theory of production, credit restriction, aggregate demand

Obiettivo del lavoro è fornire un’analisi del rendimento degli studenti nei tests nazionali di italiano e matematica in relazione al tipo di scuola frequentata, pubblica o privata, utilizzando il dataset delle indagini Invalsi. Dapprima sono state esaminate le caratteristiche degli studenti che frequentano rispettivamente la scuola pubblica e la scuola privata. Successivamente i dati sono stati elaborati mediante modelli di regressione multilevel a due livelli, studente e scuola. Tenendo sotto controllo le caratteristiche degli studenti, non vi è differenza di risultati nei test di italiano e matematica tra scuola pubblica e privata nella scuola primaria e secondaria di primo grado, mentre nella scuola secondaria di secondo grado gli istituti statali, in particolare i licei, raggiungono in genere risultati migliori degli omologhi istituti privati. This paper aims to provide an analysis of Italian students performance in language and mathematical tests in relation to the public or private nature of the school they attend, using the dataset of the Invalsi national surveys. First the characteristics of pupils attending public schools in comparison of those of pupils attending private schools are examined. Secondly a series of multilevel analysis have been carried out on the same data. The results show that controlling for pupils characteristics such as social background and level of competence in entrance there is no appreciable difference in standardized tests performance between public and private schools in primary and lower secondary education. Instead in upper secondary education, public schools perform better than private ones. JEL codes: I21, I24, H52 Keywords: Student performance, private schools, public schools, Invalsi national survey

La mancata crescita della produttività è un tema centrale per economisti e governi. Le politiche pubbliche di stimolo della produttività hanno registrato modesti risultati, e il maggiore incremento della produttività si è avuto dove queste politiche sono state di minore intensità. Questo lavoro sostiene che l’analisi del problema della bassa produttività prosegue su linee esplicative insoddisfacenti perché non si pone sufficiente attenzione ai problemi irrisolti di teoria e di calcolo. Una considerazione di questi aspetti porta a respingere i giudizi riguardanti la responsabilità dell’insoddisfacente crescita della produttività – sovente attribuita in prevalenza al lavoro – e invita a spostare l’attenzione su altri aspetti del funzionamento dell’economia e dei comportamenti sociali, che sono verosimilmente concausa del fenomeno. Slow or non-existent productivity growth is a central issue for both economists and policymakers. Public policies aimed at boosting productivity growth have produced scant results, and productivity growth has been highest where these policies were not implemented. The paper argues that the analysis of the low productivity growth conundrum follows inadequate paths because as yet unsolved theoretical and measurement issues are not given enough attention. A fuller account of these issues implies rejecting the widespread narrative that attributes to labour the main responsibility for low productivity growth, and rather points to other aspects of the working of the economy and of social behaviours. JEL codes: D24, E24, J24 Keywords: productivity, Italy, measurement, industry

Dagli anni ’90 il settore agroalimentare italiano è minacciato da un inquietante fenomeno: la criminalità organizzata attiva nel settore ambientale. In questo articolo esaminiamo la relazione fra la pressione eco-criminale e l’indice dei prezzi al consumo degli alimenti e delle bevande analcoliche per le 20 regioni italiane e per 80 province. A livello regionale come proxy delle attività dell’eco-mafia costruiamo un indice di eco-criminalità usando dati pubblicati da Legambiente. A livello provinciale utilizziamo quattro variabili: estorsioni, contraffazione, contrabbando e incendi boschivi. L’analisi mostra che l’eco-mafia può influenzare consistentemente l’intero settore agroalimentare, causando un aumento dei prezzi alimentari, soprattutto nel mezzogiorno. Al contrario, nel centro-nord il riciclaggio sembra ridurre i prezzi alimentari, attraverso il reinvestimento dei proventi illeciti in aziende con forti vantaggi di costo. From the 1990s the Italian agribusiness sector is threatened by a disturbing phenomenon: organized crime in the agribusiness sector.. In this paper we examine the relationship between eco-criminal pressure and consumer food and non-alcoholic drinks price index for the 20 Italian regions and 80 Italian provinces. At regional level, as a proxy for eco-mafia’s activities we build an ad hoc eco-criminal index using data from Legambiente. At the province level we use four variables: extortions, counterfeiting, contraband and woods fire. The analysis shows that the eco-mafia can consistently affect the whole agribusiness sector, causing an increase in food prices, especially in the South of the country. By contrast, in the Centre-North of Italy, money laundering seems to reduce food prices for consumers through the reinvestment of illicit proceeds in firms with strong cost advantages. JEL codes: K42, Q11, Q13 Keywords: cost of crime, agro-mafia, money laundering, food prices

Il contributo è un tributo a Irma Adelman, scomparsa il 24 febbraio 2017. La Prof.ssa Adelman è l'unica economista donna la cui autobiografia è stata pubblicata nella serie di ricordi e riflessioni sulle esperienze professionali di eminenti economisti che "Moneta e Credito" e "BNL Quarterly Review " hanno iniziato nel 1979. Il necrologio mette in evidenza i suoi temi principali di ricerca, strumenti di ricerca e quelle idee che più hanno influenzato l'attuale approccio allo sviluppo economico. Dà anche suggerimenti sulla sua personalità, il suo coraggio e la sua resilienza che potrebbero ispirare le giovani donne nel mondo accademico. The paper is a contribution to Irma Adelman, who passed away on February 24, 2017. Prof. Adelman is the only woman economist whose autobiography has been published in the series of recollections and reflections on the professional experiences of distinguished economists that “Moneta e Credito” and the “BNL Quarterly Review” started in 1979. The obituary highlights her main themes of research, research tools and those ideas that most affected the current approach to economic development. It also gives hints on her personality, her courage and resilience that could inspire young women in academia. JEL codes: B31, O15, O20, A12

All'interno dell'UE, la percezione che la convergenza sull'attuale insieme di regole non sia in grado di produrre convergenza sui risultati, o risultati generalmente migliori, ha aumentato la frammentazione socio-politica. Il risultato è stata una crescente domanda di rinazionalizzazione dei poteri sovrani. Concentrandosi sull'area dell'euro, il documento propone di rivedere le operazioni monetarie della Banca centrale europea, le attuali regole di bilancio e l'approccio di regolamentazione finanziaria al fine di affrontare alcune delle principali incongruenze, rigidità e fragilità dell'attuale progettazione. Il nuovo progetto è pensato per non richiedere modifiche al trattato sul funzionamento dell'Unione europea, ma almeno una convergenza politica minima. Se attuata con successo, contribuirebbe a dare una prospettiva percorribile alla concezione dell'Unione economica e monetaria, in grado di attrarre quei paesi dell'UE non appartenenti all'area dell'euro che considerano la cattiva gestione della recente crisi e della sua ragione d'effetto sufficiente a resistere ulteriori perdite di sovranità. Within the EU, the perception that the convergence on the current set of rules is not capable of producing convergence on results, or generally better results, has increased socio-political fragmentation. The result has been an increasing demand for re-nationalisation of sovereign powers. Focusing on the euro area, the paper proposes to revise the monetary operations of the European Central Bank, current fiscal rules and the financial regulatory approach in order to tackle some of the main inconsistencies, rigidities and fragilities in the current design. The new design is thought out to require no changes in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, but at least a minimum political convergence. If successfully implemented, it would contribute to give a viable perspective to the design of the Economic and Monetary Union, capable of attracting those EU non-euro area countries that consider the mismanagement of the recent crisis and of its after-effects reason enough for resisting further losses of sovereignty. JEL codes: E52, E62, F33, F36, F45, G28

L'articolo è una riedizione del contributo di Weintraub del 1983 a una serie di "ecollections" e riflessioni sulle esperienze professionali di eminenti economisti, che la Rivista trimestrale Banca Nazionale del Lavoro ha iniziato nel 1979. In questo documento autobiografico Sidney Weintraub ricorda e commenta il suo accademico vita e carriera. The article is a reissue of 1983 Weintraub’s contribution to a series of “ ecollections" and reflections on the professional experiences of distinguished economists, which the Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review started in 1979. In this autobiographic paper Sidney Weintraub recalls and comments upon his academic life and career. JEL codes: E12, B31, N01

Le valutazioni sul debito sovrano emesse dalle agenzie di rating del credito possono avere una grande influenza sulle aspettative degli investitori. Durante la crisi del debito europeo, i paesi periferici della zona euro sono stati ripetutamente retrocessi. Secondo molti economisti, questi giudizi severi non erano sempre giustificati sulla base dei fondamenti economici. In questo articolo utilizziamo modelli econometrici per mostrare come i giudizi siano diventati più gravi dopo il 2009 e, durante questo periodo, alcuni paesi sono stati sistematicamente giudicati peggiori di altri, indipendentemente dai loro fondamentali economici. Ratings on sovereign debt issued by Credit Rating Agencies may have a great influence on investors’ expectations. During the European Debt crisis, peripheral Eurozone countries were repeatedly downgraded. According to many economists, these severe judgments were not always justified on the basis of economic fundamentals. In this paper we use econometric models to show how judgments became more severe after 2009 and that, during this period, some countries were systematically rated worse than others, independently of their economic fundamentals.

Il documento analizza il processo di internazionalizzazione del settore bancario dal punto di vista delle strategie delle imprese in condizioni di oligopolio. Il caso italiano è interessante da questo punto di vista per la sua simultanea dinamica di ingresso di diversi attori stranieri nel mercato e internazionalizzazione di gruppi nazionali. Il lavoro discute la politica industriale appropriata in termini di armonizzazione della legislazione sovranazionale e delle esigenze di sviluppo del mercato interno. The paper analyses the process of internationalisation of the banking sector from the perspective of firms' strategies under conditions of oligopoly. The Italian case is interesting from this point of view for its simultaneous dynamics of entry of several foreign players in the market and internationalisation of domestic groups. The work discusses the appropriate industrial policy in terms of armonization of the supernational legislation and the development needs of the domestic market.

A plan for European Monetary Union was recently proposed based on the issue of a parallel European currency, the acceptance of which would be established by a market process, not by official edicts and which would be managed to achieve stable European-wide prices. This paper examines the desirability of, and problems associated with this particular approach. It represents yet a further attempt to show that the anti-union arguments are either wrong or they are positive, not normative propositions which lead to the prediction that union will not occur and do not lead to the prescription that it shouldn’t. The inflation records of the individual countries are first examined and the reasons for national differences in that rate are analysed. Then the implications of monetary union are analysed. Finally, the political objections to monetary union are considered. JEL: F36, F33