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Based on the PSR conceptual evaluation model of urban green and low-carbon development competitiveness, this paper evaluates the green and low-carbon development competitiveness of 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2010 to 2019 and reveals their spatial effects and obstacle factors combined with the spatial autocorrelation and obstacle model. The results show the following: (1) In terms of the overall situation, the evaluation index of urban green and low-carbon development competitiveness in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows a fluctuating upward trend as a whole from 2010 to 2019. Among them, the comprehensive evaluation indexes of Beijing, Zhangjiakou, and Tianjin are very competitive, while Hengshui, Handan, and Xingtai are relatively weak. (2) In terms of spatial data analysis, the global and local Moran's I of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities from 2010 to 2019 were positive and passed the 1% significant level test. This shows that the comprehensive evaluation index of urban green low-carbon development competitiveness of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities has a positive spatial correlation, and the spatial agglomeration effect is significant. On the whole, it presents a spatial agglomeration pattern of "high in the north, partial jump, and low in the south". (3) In the aspect of obstacle factor analysis, the proportion of the tertiary industry output value in GDP, energy consumption of ten thousand yuan of GDP, the urban green technology innovation level, and industrial soot emission of ten thousand yuan of GDP are the main obstacle factors restricting the improvement of urban green low-carbon development competitiveness in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The normal supply of energy is related to the stable development of the economy and society. Forecasting energy consumption helps prepare for the normal supply of energy. In the study of energy consumption forecasting, different scholars have used different forecasting models. This paper uses five-year energy consumption data in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and uses the grey fractional FGM(1, 1) model to analyze the next six years. Then, the energy consumption of three places is predicted. The advantage of the grey score FGM(1, 1) model is that it can get more accurate prediction results based on a small amount of information. In this study, relatively outdated information affects the accuracy of prediction results. However, other prediction models have great limitations on data. Choosing the grey number fractional model for prediction research can get a more reasonable prediction result. We use the FGM(1, 1) model to make predictions and get the prediction results. In Beijing, the growth rate of natural gas consumption has slowed down and will be basically stable by 2023. The average annual deceleration of coal consumption is 32%. The average annual deceleration of coke consumption is 10%. Crude oil consumption decreased by 6.3% annually. Gasoline consumption is slowly increasing. The consumption of kerosene increased about 8% annually. Diesel consumption is slowly decreasing. Fuel oil consumption is reduced by 17% annually. The average annual growth rate of power consumption exceeds 6%. In Tianjin, the annual growth rate of natural gas consumption is about 5%. Coal consumption is reduced by about 8% every year. The average annual deceleration of coke consumption is 7%. Crude oil consumption decreased by 2.4% annually. Gasoline consumption is slowly decreasing. The consumption of kerosene has increased by about 20% annually. Diesel consumption is slowly decreasing. Fuel oil consumption is reduced by 20% annually. Electricity consumption is slowly increasing. In Hebei Province, the annual growth rate of natural gas consumption is about 15%. Annual coal consumption is reduced by about 3%. Coke consumption remained stable. Crude oil consumption is reduced by 3% annually. Gasoline consumption is slowly increasing, and kerosene consumption has increased by about 31% annually. Diesel consumption is reduced by about 3% annually. Fuel oil consumption remained stable. Electricity consumption is slowly increasing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]