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Coastal lakes are ecosystems of significant value generating many ecological, social and economic benefits. Increasing demands resulting from urban development and other human activities within coastal lake catchments have the potential to result in their degradation and can lead to conflicts, for example between lake users and upstream communities. There are many techniques that can be used to integrate the variables involved in such conflicts including system dynamics, meta-modelling, and coupled component models, but many of these techniques are too complex for catchment managers to employ on a routine basis. The overall result is the potential to compromise the sustainability of these important ecosystems. This paper describes research to address this problem. It presents the development of an integrated model framework based on a Bayesian network (Bn). Bns are used to assess the sustainability of eight coastal lake-catchment systems, located on the coast of New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The paper describes the potential advantages in the use of Bns and the methods used to develop their frameworks. A case study application for the Cudgen Lake of northern NSW is presented to illustrate the techniques. The case study includes a description of the relevant management issues being considered, the model framework and the techniques used to derive input data. Results for the case study application and their implications for management are presented and discussed. Finally, the directions for future research and a discussion of the applicability of Bn techniques to support management in similar situations are proffered. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Fire behaviour and spread predictions guides suppression strategies and public warnings during wildfires. The scientific understanding of fire behaviour forms the core of these predictions, but is incomplete, and expert judgement and experience are required to augment the evidence based knowledge. Amicus is a new decision support system that implements contemporary, published and operationalised bushfire behaviour models (e.g. rate of spread, flame height, fireline intensity, spotting distance) in the Australian bushfire context. It enables the inclusion of expert judgement and local knowledge, allows users to analyse temporal trends and uncertainty in inputs, and facilitates reliable and practical predictions. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of Amicus, including its operation and functionality, identifies the boundaries of the current understanding of fire science, discusses the major limitations in existing knowledge, and provides a framework for allowing deterministic and anecdotal/local knowledge to be incorporated into formal fire behaviour predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Marxan is the most widely used conservation planning software in the world and is designed for solving complex conservation planning problems in landscapes and seascapes. In this paper we describe a substantial extension of Marxan called Marxan with Zones, a decision support tool that provides land-use zoning options in geographical regions for biodiversity conservation. We describe new functions designed to enhance the original Marxan software and expand on its utility as a decision support tool. The major new element in the decision problem is allowing any parcel of land or sea to be allocated to a specific zone, not just reserved or unreserved. Each zone then has the option of its own actions, objectives and constraints, with the flexibility to define the contribution of each zone to achieve targets for pre-specified features (e.g. species or habitats). The objective is to minimize the total cost of implementing the zoning plan while ensuring a variety of conservation and land-use objectives are achieved. We outline the capabilities, limitations and additional data requirements of this new software and perform a comparison with the original version of Marxan. We feature a number of case studies to demonstrate the functionality of the software and highlight its flexibility to address a range of complex spatial planning problems. These studies demonstrate the design of multiple-use marine parks in both Western Australia and California, and the zoning of forest use in East Kalimantan. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]