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This paper presents results of simulating a more collusive behavior of a group of natural gas producing and exporting countries, sometimes called GASPEC. We use the World Gas Model, a dynamic, strategic representation of world gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we simulate a closer cooperation of the GASPEC countries when exporting pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas; we also run a more drastic scenario where GASPEC countries deliberately hold back production. The results show that compared to our Base Case, a gas cartel would reduce total supplied quantities and induce price increases in gas importing countries up to 22%. There is evidence that the natural gas markets in Europe and North America would be affected more than other parts of the world. Lastly, the vulnerability of gas importers worldwide is further illustrated by the results of a sensitivity case in which price levels are up to 87% higher in Europe and North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase in liquefied natural gas trade has accelerated the integration of previously segmented markets in North America, Europe, and Asia. This paper provides evidence on the integration of the transatlantic natural gas market; it thus complements other papers in the EMF 23 study that focus on prices and international natural gas trade. We test the theoretical proposition that in integrating markets commodity prices should move closer than before. Using 2,059 pairs of daily spot prices for natural gas in North America and Europe we investigate price dynamics covering the period from 1999 until 2008. We apply the Kalman Filter technique which measures convergence by allowing for dynamic structural change to gain detailed information on trends inherent in prices over time. Results suggest an increasing convergence of spot prices on either side of the Atlantic Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore the relationships among the North American, European and Asian natural gas markets for evidence of convergence and integration for the January 1997 through May 2011 period. The analyses are conducted under a multivariate framework, so the dynamics among the prices can be captured without the necessity of identifying an anchor price series. We find evidence of convergence among the Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese and UK prices. The North American price displays behaviour that is distinct from this group of prices. We conclude that there is not a fully integrated international natural gas market. The integration between European (represented by NBP) and Asian geographic regions appears to be due primarily to underlying contractual mechanisms specifically linking natural gas prices to oil prices rather than the result of market supply and demand interactions. We also find that the relationship among the Asian markets has evolved with Japanese prices adjusting to changes in South Korean and Taiwanese prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]