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The paper reports the results of a comparative assessment concerned with the effectiveness of identifying the basic forms of partial discharges (PD) measured by the acoustic emission technique (AE), carried out by application of selected machine learning methods. As part of the re-search, the identification involved AE signals registered in laboratory conditions for eight basic classes of PDs that occur in paper-oil insulation systems of high-voltage power equipment. On the basis of acoustic signals emitted by PDs and by application of the frequency descriptor that took the form of a signal power density spectrum (PSD), the assessment involved the possibility of identifying individual types of PD by the analyzed classification algorithms. As part of the research, the results obtained with the use of five independent classification mechanisms were analyzed, namely: k-Nearest Neighbors method (kNN), Naive Bayes Classification, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forests and Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN). The best results were achieved using the SVM classification tuned with polynomial core, which obtained 100% accuracy. Similar results were achieved with the kNN classifier. Random Forests and Naïve Bayes obtained high accuracy over 97%. Throughout the study, identification algorithms with the highest effectiveness in identifying specific forms of PD were established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To improve the power generation efficiency of offshore wind turbines and address the problem of high fire monitoring and warning costs, we propose a data-driven fire warning method based on transfer learning for wind turbines in this paper. This paper processes wind turbine operation data in a SCADA system. It uses an extreme gradient-boosting tree (XGBoost) algorithm to build an offshore wind turbine unit fire warning model with a multiparameter prediction function. This paper selects some parameters from the dataset as input variables for the model, with average cabin temperature, average outdoor temperature, average cabin humidity, and average atmospheric humidity as output variables. This paper analyzes the distribution information of input and output variables and their correlation, analyzes the predicted difference, and then provides an early warning for wind turbine fires. This paper uses this fire warning model to transfer learning to different models of offshore wind turbines in the same wind farm to achieve fire warning. The experimental results show that the prediction performance of the multiparameter is accurate, with an average MAPE of 0.016 and an average RMSE of 0.795. It is better than the average MAPE (0.051) and the average RMSE (2.020) of the prediction performance of a backpropagation (BP) neural network, as well as the average MAPE (0.030) and the average RMSE (1.301) of the prediction performance of random forest. The transfer learning model has good prediction performance, with an average MAPE of 0.022 and an average RMSE of 1.469. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Creating accurate emission models capable of capturing the variability and dynamics of modern propulsion systems is crucial for future mobility planning. This paper presents a methodology for creating THC and NOx emission models for vehicles equipped with start–stop technology. A key aspect of this endeavor is to find techniques that accurately replicate the engine's stop stages when there are no emissions. To this end, several machine learning techniques were tested using the Python programming language. Random forest and gradient boosting methods demonstrated the best predictive capabilities for THC and NOx emissions, achieving R2 scores of approximately 0.9 for engine emissions. Additionally, recommendations for effective modeling of such emissions from vehicles are presented in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global climate change intensifies, nations around the world are implementing policies aimed at reducing emissions, with carbon-trading mechanisms emerging as a key market-based tool. China has launched carbon-trading markets in several cities, achieving significant trading volumes. Carbon-trading mechanisms encompass cap-and-trade markets and voluntary markets, influenced by various factors, including policy changes, economic conditions, energy prices, and climate fluctuations. The complexity of these factors, coupled with the nonlinear and non-stationary nature of carbon prices, makes forecasting a substantial challenge. This paper proposes a dynamic weight hybrid forecasting model based on a dual sliding window approach, effectively integrating multiple forecasting models such as LSTM, Random Forests, and LASSO. This model facilitates a thorough analysis of the influences of policy, market dynamics, technological advancements, and climatic conditions on carbon pricing. It serves as a potent tool for predicting carbon market price fluctuations and offers valuable decision support to stakeholders in the carbon market, ultimately aiding in the global efforts towards emission reduction and achieving sustainable development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In solar forecasting, it is common practice for solar data (be it irradiance or photovoltaic power) to be converted into a stationary index (e.g., clear-sky or clearness index) before being used as inputs for solar-forecasting models. However, its actual impact is rarely quantified. Thus, this paper aims to study the impact of including this processing step in the modeling workflow within the scope of very-short-term spatio-temporal forecasting. Several forecasting models are considered, and the observed impact is shown to be model-dependent. Persistence does not benefit from this for such short timescales; however, the statistical models achieve an additional 0.5 to 2.5 percentual points (PPs) in terms of the forecasting skill. Machine-learning (ML) models achieve 0.9 to 1.9 more PPs compared to a linear regression, indicating that stationarization reveals non-linear patterns in the data. The exception is Random Forest, which underperforms in comparison with the other models. Lastly, the inclusion of solar elevation and azimuth angles as inputs is tested since these are easy to compute and can inform the model on time-dependent patterns. Only the cases where the input is not made stationary, or the underperforming Random Forest model, seem to benefit from this. This indicates that the apparent Sun position data can compensate for the lack of stationarization in the solar inputs and can help the models to differentiate the daily and seasonal variability from the shorter-term, weather-driven variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate prediction of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is crucial for optimizing solar power generation systems, particularly in mountainous areas with complex topography and unique microclimates. These regions face significant challenges due to limited reliable data and the dynamic nature of local weather conditions, which complicate accurate GHI measurement. The scarcity of precise data impedes the development of reliable solar energy prediction models, impacting both economic and environmental outcomes. To address these data scarcity challenges in solar energy prediction, this paper focuses on various locations in Europe and Asia Minor, predominantly in mountainous regions. Advanced machine learning techniques, including random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) regressors, are employed to effectively predict GHI. Additionally, optimizing training data distribution based on cloud opacity values and integrating synthetic data significantly enhance predictive accuracy, with R2 scores ranging from 0.91 to 0.97 across multiple locations. Furthermore, substantial reductions in root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean bias error (MBE) underscore the improved reliability of the predictions. Future research should refine synthetic data generation, optimize additional meteorological and environmental parameter integration, extend methodology to new regions, and test for predicting global tilted irradiance (GTI). The studies should expand training data considerations beyond cloud opacity, incorporating sky cover and sunshine duration to enhance prediction accuracy and reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the transition toward the Internet of Everything (IOE), the prediction of energy consumed by household appliances has become a progressively more difficult topic to model. Even with advancements in data analytics and machine learning, several challenges remain to be addressed. Therefore, providing highly accurate and optimized models has become the primary research goal of many studies. This paper analyzes appliance energy consumption through a variety of machine learning-based strategies. Utilizing data recorded from a single-family home, input variables comprised internal temperatures and humidities, lighting consumption, and outdoor conditions including wind speed, visibility, and pressure. Various models were trained and evaluated: (a) multiple linear regression, (b) support vector regression, (c) random forest, (d) gradient boosting, (e) xgboost, and (f) the extra trees regressor. Both feature engineering and hyperparameter tuning methodologies were applied to not only extend existing features but also create new ones that provided improved model performance across all metrics: root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The best model (extra trees) was able to explain 99% of the variance in the training set and 66% in the testing set when using all the predictors. The results were compared with those obtained using a similar methodology. The objective of performing these actions was to show a unique perspective in simulating building performance through data-driven models, identifying how to maximize predictive performance through the use of machine learning-based strategies, as well as understanding the potential benefits of utilizing different models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate well productivity prediction plays a significant role in formulating reservoir development plans. However, traditional well productivity prediction methods lack accuracy in tight gas reservoirs; therefore, this paper quantitatively evaluates the correlations between absolute open flow and the critical parameters for Linxing tight gas reservoirs through statistical analysis. Dominant control factors are obtained by considering reservoir engineering theories, and a novel machine learning-based well productivity prediction method is proposed for tight gas reservoirs. The adaptability of the productivity prediction model is assessed through machine learning and field data analysis. Combined with the typical decline curve analysis, the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of a single well in the tight gas reservoir is forecasted in an appropriate range. The results of the study include 10 parameters (such as gas saturation) identified as the dominant controlling factors for well productivity and geological factors that impact the productivity in this area compared to fracturing parameters. According to the prediction results of the three models, the R2 of Support Vector Regression (SVR), Back Propagation (BP), and Random Forest (RF) models are 0.72, 0.87, and 0.91, respectively. The results indicate that RF has a more accurate prediction. In addition, the RF model is more suitable for medium and high-production wells based on the actual field data. Based on this model, it is verified that the productivity of low-producing wells is affected by water production. This study confirms the model's reliability and application value by predicting recoverable reserves for a single well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prognosis of wind turbine failures in real operating conditions is a significant gap in the academic literature and is essential for achieving viable performance parameters for the operation and maintenance of these machines, especially those located offshore. This paper presents a framework for estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of the main bearing using regression models fed operational data (temperature, wind speed, and the active power of the network) collected by a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. The framework begins with a careful data filtering process, followed by creating a degradation profile based on identifying the behavior of temperature time series. It also uses a cross-validation strategy to mitigate data scarcity and increase model robustness by combining subsets of data from different available turbines. Support vector, gradient boosting, random forest, and extra trees models were created, which, in the tests, showed an average of 20 days in estimating the remaining useful life and presented mean absolute error (MAE) values of 0.047 and mean squared errors (MSE) of 0.012. As its main contributions, this work proposes (i) a robust and effective regression modeling method for estimating RUL based on temperature and (ii) an approach for dealing with a lack of data, a common problem in wind turbine operation. The results demonstrate the potential of using these forecasts to support the decision making of the teams responsible for operating and maintaining wind farms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to forecast New York and Los Angeles gasoline spot prices on a daily frequency. The dataset includes gasoline prices and a big set of 128 other relevant variables spanning the period from 17 February 2004 to 26 March 2022. These variables were fed to three tree-based machine learning algorithms: decision trees, random forest, and XGBoost. Furthermore, a variable importance measure (VIM) technique was applied to identify and rank the most important explanatory variables. The optimal model, a trained random forest, achieves a mean absolute percent error (MAPE) in the out-of-sample of 3.23% for the New York and 3.78% for the Los Angeles gasoline spot prices. The first lag, AR (1), of gasoline is the most important variable in both markets; the top five variables are all energy-related. This paper can strengthen the understanding of price determinants and has the potential to inform strategic decisions and policy directions within the energy sector, making it a valuable asset for both industry practitioners and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared with the pole-to-pole short circuit, the fault characteristics are not obvious when a monopolar grounding fault occurs in a DC distribution network, and it is difficult to locate the fault accurately. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a fault location method based on improved ReliefF and Weighted random forest (WRF). The 24 time and frequency-domain fault features of the postfault aerial mode current are calculated, and the most useful features are selected to form the optimal feature subset for input to the fault location estimator. In this paper, the ReliefF algorithm is utilized for automatic feature selection and obtaining the weights of features. In addition, the WRF algorithm is used to build the fault location estimator. Considering the fault location, fault resistance, noise and time window length, the Matlab/Simulink simulation platform is used to simulate the fault situation and compare it with other algorithms. The simulation results show that the average positioning error of the fault location method is less than 0.1%, which is not affected by the fault resistance and has strong robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complex oil and gas two-phase flow exists within an aero-engines bearing cavity scavenge pipe, prone to lubricated self-ignition and coking. Lubricant system designers must be able to accurately identify and understand the flow state of the scavenge pipe. The prediction accuracy of previous models is insufficient to meet the more demanding needs. This paper establishes a visualized flow pattern identification test system for the scavenge pipe, with a test temperature of up to 370 k, using a high-speed camera to photograph four flow patterns, decomposing the pressure signals obtained from high-frequency dynamic pressure sensors using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, and then performing Hilbert transform, using the Hilbert spectrum to quantify the changes of amplitude and frequency with time, and establishing the energy and flow pattern correspondence analysis. Then the energy percentage of IMFs is used as the input of feature values, and the random forest algorithm machine learning is used for predictive classification. The experimental results show that the flow pattern recognition rate established in this paper can reach 98%, which can identify the two-phase flow pattern in the scavenge pipe more objectively and accurately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fuel cell is an energy conversion device that utilizes hydrogen energy through an electrochemical reaction. Despite their many advantages, such as high efficiency, zero emissions, and fast startup, fuel cells have not yet been fully commercialized due to deficiencies in service life, cost, and performance. Efficient evaluation methods for performance and service life are critical for the design and optimization of fuel cells. The purpose of this paper was to review the application of common machine learning algorithms in fuel cells. The significance and status of machine learning applications in fuel cells are briefly described. Common machine learning algorithms, such as artificial neural networks, support vector machines, and random forests are introduced, and their applications in fuel cell performance prediction and optimization are comprehensively elaborated. The review revealed that machine learning algorithms can be successfully used for performance prediction, service life prediction, and fault diagnosis in fuel cells, with good accuracy in solving nonlinear problems. Combined with optimization algorithms, machine learning models can further carry out the optimization of design and operating parameters to achieve multiple optimization goals with good accuracy and efficiency. It is expected that this review paper could help the reader comprehend the state of the art of machine learning applications in fuel fuels and shed light on further development directions in fuel cell research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to accurately predict China's future total energy consumption, this article constructs a random forest (RF)–sparrow search algorithm (SSA)–support vector regression machine (SVR)–kernel density estimation (KDE) model to forecast China's future energy consumption in 2022–2030. It is explored whether China can reach the relevant target in 2030. This article begins by using a random forest model to screen for influences to be used as the input set for the model. Then, the sparrow search algorithm is applied to optimize the SVR to overcome the drawback of difficult parameter setting of SVR. Finally, the model SSA-SVR is applied to forecast the future total energy consumption in China. Then, interval forecasting was performed using kernel density estimation, which enhanced the predictive significance of the model. By comparing the prediction results and error values with those of RF-PSO-SVR, RF-SVR and RF-BP, it is demonstrated that the combined model proposed in the paper is more accurate. This will have even better accuracy for future predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A bias current in the power system will cause saturation of the measuring current transformer (CT), leading to an increase in measurement error. Therefore, in this paper, we first conducted measurements of the direct current component in a 10 kV distribution system. Subsequently, a reverse extraction method for the CT distorted current under direct current bias conditions based on Random Forest Classification (RFC) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) was proposed. This method involves two stages for the reverse extraction of CT distorted currents under direct current bias conditions. In the offline stage, data samples were generated by changing the operating environment of the CT. The RFC classification algorithm was used to divide the saturation levels of the CT, and for each sub-class, Particle Swarm Optimization–Long Short-Term Memory Network (PSO-LSTM) models were trained to establish the mapping relationship between the secondary distorted current and the primary current fundamental component. In the online stage, the saturated data segments were extracted from the secondary current waveform using wavelet transform, and these segments were input into the offline model for current reverse extraction. The simulation results show that the proposed method exhibited strong robustness under various CT conditions, and achieved high reconstruction accuracy for the primary current. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kicks can lead to well control risks during petroleum drilling, and even more serious kicks may lead to serious casualties, which is the biggest threat factor affecting the safety in the process of petroleum drilling. Therefore, how to detect kicks early and efficiently has become a focus practical problem. Traditional machine learning models require a large amount of labeled data, such kicked sample, and it is difficult to label data, which requires a lot of labor and time. To address the above issues, the deep forest is extended to a transfer learning model to improve the generalization ability. In this paper, a transfer learning model is built to detect kicks early. The source domain model adopts the deep forest model. Deep forest is an ensemble learning model with a hierarchical structure similar to deep learning. Each layer contains a variety of random forests. It is an integration of the model in depth and breadth. In the case of a small sample size (20–60 min), kick can be identified 10 min in advance. The deep forest model is established as the source domaining model, and a cascade forest is added at the last layer according to the transfer learning algorithm to form the classification model of this paper. The experimental results show that the kick prediction accuracy of the model is 80.13% by a confusion matrix. In the target domain, the proposed model performs better than other ensemble learning algorithms, and the accuracy is 5% lower than other SOTA transfer learning algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar power forecasting is of high interest in managing any power system based on solar energy. In the case of photovoltaic (PV) systems, and building integrated PV (BIPV) in particular, it may help to better operate the power grid and to manage the power load and storage. Power forecasting directly based on PV time series has some advantages over solar irradiance forecasting first and PV power modeling afterwards. In this paper, the power forecasting for BIPV systems in a vertical façade is studied using machine learning algorithms based on decision trees. The forecasting scheme employs the skforecast library from the Python environment, which facilitates the implementation of different schemes for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting applications. Firstly, deterministic forecasting of hourly BIPV power was performed with XGBoost and Random Forest algorithms for different cases, showing an improvement in forecasting accuracy when some exogenous variables were used. Secondly, probabilistic forecasting was performed with XGBoost combined with the Bootstrap method. The results of this paper show the capabilities of Random Forest and gradient boosting algorithms, such as XGBoost, to work as regressors in time series forecasting of BIPV power. Mean absolute error in the deterministic forecast, using the most influencing exogenous variables, were around 40% and close below 30% for the south and east array, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The re-evaluation of oil-bearing wells enables finding potential oil-bearing areas and estimating the results of well logging. The re-evaluation of oil bearing is one of the key procedures for guiding the development of lower production wells with long-term production histories. However, there are many limitations to traditional oil-bearing assessment due to low resolution and excessive reliance on geological expert experience, which may lead to inaccurate and uncertain predictions. Based on information gain, three data-driven models were established in this paper to re-evaluate the oil bearing of long-term production wells. The results indicated that the RF model performed best with an accuracy of 95.07%, while the prediction capability of the neural network model was the worst, with only 79.8% accuracy. Moreover, an integrated model was explored to improve model accuracy. Compared with the neural network, support vector machine, and random forest models, the accuracy of the fusion model was improved by 20.9%, 8.5%, and 1.4%, which indicated that the integrated model assisted in enhancing the accuracy of oil-bearing prediction. Combined with the long-term production characteristics of oil wells in the actual oil field, the potential target sweet spot was found, providing theoretical guidance for the effective development of lower production wells in the late period of oilfield development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Production profiling technology is an important method for monitoring the dynamics of oil and gas reservoirs which can effectively improve the efficiency of oil recovery. Production profiling is a technique in which a test instrument is lowered from the tubing to the bottom of the well to measure flow, temperature, pressure, and density in a multi-layer section of a producing well. Normal production profiling process needs to stop production, operate complex, consume long time and high cost. Furthermore, the profile cannot be continuously monitored for a long time. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a production profiling interpretation method based on reservoir primitive microbial DNA sequencing. The microbial stratigraphic baseline with high-resolution features is obtained by sampling and DNA sequencing of produced fluid and cuttings from different wells. Specifically, the random forest algorithm is preferred and improved by comparing the accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and running time of three clustering methods: Naïve-Bayes classifier, random forest classifier, and back-propagation classifier. Constructing PSO-random forest model is based on stratigraphic records and produced fluid bacteria features. The computational accuracy and efficiency of this method allows it to describe the production profile for each formation. Moreover, this test process does not need to stop production with simple operation and does not pollute the formation. Meanwhile, by sampling fluid production at different stages, it can achieve the purpose of long-term effective dynamic monitoring of the reservoir. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protective relays play a crucial role in defining the dynamic responses of power systems during and after faults. Therefore, modeling protective relays in stability studies is crucial for enhancing the accuracy of these studies. Modeling all the relays in a bulk power system is a challenging task due to the limitations of stability software and the difficulties of keeping track of the changes in the setting information of these relays. Distance relays are one of the most important protective relays that are not properly modeled in current practices of stability studies. Hence, using the Random Forest algorithm, a fast machine learning-based method is developed in this paper that identifies the distance relays required to be modeled in stability studies of a contingency, referred to as critical distance relays (CDRs). GE positive sequence load flow analysis (PSLF) software is used to perform stability studies. The method is tested using 2018 summer peak load data of Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) for various system conditions. The results illustrate the great performance of the method in identifying the CDRs. They also show that to conduct accurate stability studies, only modeling the CDRs suffices, and there is no need for modeling all the distance relays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly 60% of commercial customers are connected to a low-voltage network in Poland with a contractual capacity of more than 40 kW and are assigned a fixed tariff with flat prices for the whole year, no matter the usage volume. With smart meters, more data about how businesses use energy are becoming available to both energy providers and customers. This enables innovation in the structure and type of tariffs on offer in the energy market. Customers can explore their usage patterns to choose the most suitable tariff to benefit from lower prices and thus generate savings. In this paper, we analyzed whether customers' electricity usage matched their optimal tariff and further investigated which of them could benefit or lose from switching the tariff based on the real dataset with the hourly energy readings of 1212 commercial entities in Poland recorded between 2016 and 2019. Three modelling approaches, i.e., the k-nearest neighbors, classification tree and random forest, were tested for optimal tariff classification, while for the benchmark, we used a simple approach, in which the tariff was proposed based on the customers' previous electricity usage. The main findings from the research are threefold: (1) out of all the analyzed entities, on average, 76% of them could have benefited from the tariff switching, which suggests that customers may not be aware of the tariff change benefits, or they had chosen a tariff plan that was not tailored to them; (2) a random forest model offers a viable approach to accurate tariff classification; (3) the policy implication from the research is the need to increase the customers' awareness about the tariffs and propose reliable tools for selecting the optimal tariff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is indisputable that power systems are being transformed around the world to increase the use of RES and reduce the use of fossil fuels in overall electricity production. This year, the EU Parliament adopted the Fit for 55 package, which should significantly reduce the use of fossil fuels in the energy balance of EU countries while increasing the use of RES. At the end of 2022, the total number of prosumer installations in Poland amounted to about one million two hundred thousand. Such a high saturation of prosumer micro-installations in the power system causes many threats resulting from their operation. These threats result, among others, from the fact that photovoltaics are classified as unstable sources and the expected production of electricity from such installations is primarily associated with highly variable weather conditions and is only dependent on people to a minor extent. Currently, there is a rapid development of topics related to forecasting the volume of energy production from unstable sources such as wind and photovoltaic power plants. This issue is being actively developed by research units around the world. Scientists use a whole range of tools and models related to forecasting techniques, from physical models to artificial intelligence. According to our findings, the use of machine learning models has the greatest chance of obtaining positive prognostic effects for small, widely distributed prosumer installations. The present paper presents the research results of two energy balance prediction algorithms based on machine learning models. For forecasting, we proposed two regression models, i.e., regularized LASSO regression and random forests. The work analyzed scenarios taking into account both endogenous and exogenous variables as well as direct multi-step forecasting and recursive multi-step forecasting. The training was carried out on real data obtained from a prosumer micro-installation. Finally, it was found that the best forecasting results are obtained with the use of a random forest model trained using a recursive multi-step method and an exogenous scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we address several issues with existing methods for predicting the residual electrical life of railway relays. These issues include the difficulty of single feature prediction in characterizing the degradation process, the neglect of temporal and backward–forward correlations in the degradation process, and low prediction accuracy. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel approach that combines convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) to facilitate the life prediction of railway relays and provide an accurate data basis for the maintenance of railway relays. Firstly, we collected voltage and current signals from railway relay electrical life tests and extracted feature parameters that captured the relay's operating state. Next, we applied Spearman correlation coefficient analysis combined with random forest importance analysis to perform double-feature selection. This process eliminates redundant feature parameters and identifies the optimal feature subset. Finally, we constructed a convolutional neural network bidirectional long short-term memory (CNN BiLSTM) prediction model to accurately predict the remaining electrical life of the railway relay. Through our analysis of the prediction results, we observed that the CNN BiLSTM model achieves an effective prediction accuracy of 96.3%. This accuracy is significantly higher, more stable, and more practical compared to other prediction models such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs), long short-term memory (LSTM), and BiLSTM models. Overall, our proposed CNN BiLSTM model offers higher accuracy, better stability, and greater practicality in predicting the remaining electrical life of railway relays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low-resistivity shales are widely developed in the Sichuan Basin. The production of low-resistivity shale gas reservoirs ranges from high to low to none. The existing methods for gas-content prediction cannot accurately predict the gas content of low-resistivity shale. This increases the risk of shale-gas exploration. To prove that the random forest algorithm has apparent advantages in predicting the gas content of low-resistivity shale and reducing the risks associated with shale-gas exploration and development, three prediction methods were selected in this paper to compare their effects. The first method is known as the grey-correlation multiple linear regression method. Low-resistivity shale-gas content logging series were optimized using the grey-correlation approach, and then the low-resistivity shale-gas-content prediction model was established using the multiple linear regression method. The second method we selected was the resistivity method. The improved water-saturation model was used to predict the water saturation of low-resistivity shale, and then the gas content of low-resistivity shale was predicted based on the free-gas content and the adsorbed-gas-content model. The random forest algorithm was the third method we selected. Fourteen logging series were used as input data and the measured gas content was used as supervised data to train the model and to apply the trained model to the gas-content prediction. The findings demonstrated that the grey-correlation multiple regression method had poor accuracy in predicting gas content in low-resistivity shale; The resistivity method accurately predicted water saturation, and the predicted gas content was higher than the actual gas content. Because the random forest algorithm accurately predicted low-resistivity shale-gas content, its use in the Sichuan Basin was advantageous. The selection of a low-resistivity shale-gas-content prediction model was guided by the research findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study used a double machine learning model (based on the random forest algorithm) and spatial Durbin DIDs model to conduct quasi-natural experiments. The results are as follows: (1) innovation and reform policy regarding regional industrial chains as well as their resilience can significantly and positively address the development of China's impossible triangle coupling of energy; (2) implementing the innovation and reform policy for regional industrial chains in other regions can have a significant positive spatial transmission effect on the impossible triangle coupling coordinated development of energy in the region; (3) regional industrial chain resilience can produce a significant positive mediating effect between the innovation and reform policy of regional industrial chains and the safety, reliability, and economic feasibility of green and clean energy systems; (4) under the counterfactual framework, the mechanism path "innovation and reform policy of the regional industry chain→regional industry chain resilience→coordination degree of impossible triangle coupling of energy" has significantly positive direct and indirect effects in both the treatment group and the control group. However, "innovation and reform policy of the regional industrial chain→regional industrial chain resilience→the energy sector's impossible triangle coupling coordination degree" and "innovation and reform policy of the regional industrial chain→leading power of the regional industrial chain→the energy sector's impossible triangle coupling coordination degree" have significantly positive direct and indirect effects in the treatment group, but only the direct effect is significant in the control group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, the condition assessment of transformer winding based on frequency response analysis (FRA) measurements demands skilled personnel. Despite many research efforts in the last decade, there is still no definitive methodology for the interpretation and condition assessment of transformer winding based on FRA results, and this is a major challenge for the industrial application of the FRA method. To overcome this challenge, this paper proposes a transformer condition assessment (TCA) algorithm, which is based on numerical indices, and a supervised machine learning technique to develop a method for the automatic interpretation of FRA results. For this purpose, random forest (RF) classifiers were developed for the first time to identify the condition of transformer winding and classify different faults in the transformer windings. Mainly, six common states of the transformer were classified in this research, i.e., healthy transformer, healthy transformer with saturated core, mechanically damaged winding, short-circuited winding, open-circuited winding, and repeatability issues. In this research, the data from 139 FRA measurements performed in more than 80 power transformers were used. The database belongs to the transformers having different ratings, sizes, designs, and manufacturers. The results reveal that the proposed TCA algorithm can effectively assess the transformer winding condition with up to 93% accuracy without much human intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pipeline corrosion is one of the leading causes of failures in the transmission of gas and hazardous liquids in the oil and gas industry. In-line inspection is a non-destructive inspection for detecting corrosion defects in pipelines. Defects are measured in terms of their width, length and depth. Consecutive in-line inspection data are used to determine the pipeline's corrosion growth rate and its remnant life, which set the operational and maintenance activities of the pipeline. The traditional approach of manually processing in-line inspection data has various weaknesses, including being time consuming due to huge data volume and complexity, prone to error, subject to biased judgement by experts and challenging for matching of in-line inspection datasets. This paper aimed to contribute to the adoption of machine learning approaches in classifying pipeline defects as per Pipeline Operator Forum requirements and matching in-line inspection data for determining the corrosion growth rate and remnant life of pipelines. Machine learning techniques, namely, decision tree, random forest, support vector machines and logistic regression, were applied in the classification of pipeline defects using Phyton programming. The performance of each technique in terms of the accuracy of results was compared. The results showed that the decision tree classifier model was the most accurate (99.9%) compared with the other classifiers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Series arc faults cause the majority of household fires involving electrical failures or malfunctions. Low-fault current amplitude is the reason for the difficulties faced in implementing effective arc detection systems. The paper presents a novel arc detection and faulty line identification method. It can be easily used in the low-voltage Alternate Current (AC) household network for arc detection in the Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM). Unlike existing methods, the proposed approach exploits both current and voltage signal time domain analysis. Experiments have been conducted with up to six devices operating simultaneously in the same circuit with an arc fault generator based on the IEC 62606:2013 standard. Sixteen time-domain features were used to maximize the arc-fault detection accuracy for particular appliances. Performance of the random forest classifier for arc fault detection was evaluated for 28 sets of features with five different sampling rates. For the single period analysis arc, detection accuracy was 98.38%, with F-score of 0.9870, while in terms of the IEC 62606:2013 standard, it was 99.07%, with F-score of 0.9925. Location of a series arc fault (line selection) was realized by identifying devices powered by the faulty line. The line selection was based on the Mean Values of Changes feature vector (MVC50), calculated for absolute values of differences between adjacent current signal periods during the arc fault. The fault location accuracy was 93.20% for all cases and 98.20% for cases where the arc fault affected a single device. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a methodology based on data-driven models is developed to predict the NOx emissions of an internal combustion engine using, as inputs, a set of ECU channels representing the main engine actuations. Several regressors derived from the machine learning and deep learning algorithms are tested and compared in terms of prediction accuracy and computational efficiency to assess the most suitable for the aim of this work. Six Real Driving Emission (RDE) cycles performed at the roll bench were used for the model training, while another two RDE cycles and a steady-state map of NOx emissions were used to test the model under dynamic and stationary conditions, respectively. The models considered include Polynomial Regressor (PR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Random Forest Regressor (RF), Light Gradient Boosting Regressor (LightGBR) and Feed-Forward Neural Network (ANN). Ensemble methods such as Random Forest and LightGBR proved to have similar performances in terms of prediction accuracy, with LightGBR requiring a much lower training time. Afterwards, LightGBR predictions are compared with experimental NOx measurements in steady-state conditions and during two RDE cycles. Coefficient of determination (R2), normalized root mean squared error (nRMSE) and mean average percentage error (MAPE) are the main metrics used. The NOx emissions predicted by the LightGBR show good coherence with the experimental test set, both with the steady-state NOx map (R2 = 0.91 and MAPE = 6.42%) and with the RDE cycles (R2 = 0.95 and nRMSE = 0.04). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate solar radiation forecasting is essential to operate power systems safely under high shares of photovoltaic generation. This paper compares the performance of several machine learning algorithms for solar radiation forecasting using endogenous and exogenous inputs and proposes an ensemble feature selection method to choose not only the most related input parameters but also their past observations values. The machine learning algorithms used are: Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBT), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) and Voting-Average (VOA), which integrates SVR, XGBT and CatBoost. The proposed ensemble feature selection is based on Pearson coefficient, random forest, mutual information and relief. Prediction accuracy is evaluated based on several metrics using a real database from Salvador, Brazil. Different prediction time-horizons are considered: 1 h, 2 h and 3 h ahead. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed ensemble feature selection approach improves forecasting accuracy and that VOA performs better than the other algorithms in all prediction time horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effective pattern recognition of cable partial discharges (PDs) enables prompt corresponding measures to ensure cable safety. Traditional PD monitoring methods have limitations in online monitoring and accurate positioning, and the feature extraction of the monitored electrical signals requires significant prior knowledge. Therefore, this paper reports the performance of the distributed optical-fiber vibration-sensing monitoring of PDs on a cable with different insulation defects, and proposes a data-driven recognition approach based on the monitoring signals. The time series of the backscattered Rayleigh light intensity (BRLI) changes at the PD position were collected as the sample data. The coefficients of the time series' autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models were extracted as features. Next, a classification model trained by the random forest (RF) algorithm was established. After the model's validation with the experimental data and a comparative analysis with previously published methods, the PD recognition model was simply optimized based on the RF principle. The results showed that the proposed method achieved a high recognition accuracy, of about 98%, indicating that the data-driven approach—combining the ARMA model and the RF—is effective for cable-PD pattern recognition in distributed optical-fiber vibration-sensing systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In predicting energy consumption, classic econometric and statistical models are used to forecast energy consumption. These models may have limitations in an increasingly fast-changing energy market, which requires big data analysis of energy consumption patterns and relevant variables using complex mathematical tools. In current literature, there are minimal comparison studies reviewing machine learning algorithms to predict energy consumption in Korea. To bridge this gap, this paper compared three different machine learning algorithms, namely the Random Forest (RF) model, XGBoost (XGB) model, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. These algorithms were applied in Period 1 (prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic) and Period 2 (after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic). Period 1 was characterized by an upward trend in energy consumption, while Period 2 showed a reduction in energy consumption. LSTM performed best in its prediction power specifically in Period 1, and RF outperformed the other models in Period 2. Findings, therefore, suggested the applicability of machine learning to forecast energy consumption and also demonstrated that traditional econometric approaches may outperform machine learning when there is less unknown irregularity in the time series, but machine learning can work better with unexpected irregular time series data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several dynamic projects and fault diagnosis of mechanical structures require the knowledge of the acting external forces. However, the measurement of such forces is often difficult or even impossible; in such cases, an inverse problem must be solved. This paper proposes a force identification method that uses the response surface methodology (RSM) based on central composite design (CCD) in conjunction with a random forest regression algorithm. The procedure initially required the finite element modal model of the forced structure. Harmonic analyses were then performed with varied parameters of forces, and RSM generated a dataset containing the values of amplitude, frequency, location of forces, and vibration acceleration at several points of the structure. The dataset was used for training and testing a random forest regression model for the prediction of any location, amplitude, and frequency of the force to be identified with information on only the vibration acquisition at certain points of the structure. Numerical results showed excellent accuracy in identifying the force applied to the structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vibration signals for offshore wind-turbine high-speed bearings are often contaminated with noises due to complex environmental and structural loads, which increase the difficulty of fault detection and diagnosis. In view of this problem, we propose a fault-diagnosis strategy with good noise immunity in this paper by integrating the two-dimensional convolutional neural network (2DCNN) with random forest (RF), which is supposed to utilize both CNN's automatic feature-extraction capability and the robust discrimination performance of RF classifiers. More specifically, the raw 1D time-domain bearing-vibration signals are transformed into 2D grayscale images at first, which are then fed to the 2DCNN-RF model for fault diagnosis. At the same time, three procedures, including exponential linear unit (ELU), batch normalization (BN), and dropout, are introduced in the model to improve feature-extraction performance and the noise immune capability. In addition, when the 2DCNN feature extractor is trained, the obtained feature vectors are passed to the RF classifier to improve the classification accuracy and generalization ability of the model. The experimental results show that the diagnostic accuracy of the 2DCNN-RF model could achieve 99.548% on the CWRU high-speed bearing dataset, which outperforms the standard CNN and other standard machine-learning and deep-learning algorithms. Furthermore, when the vibration signals are polluted with noises, the 2DCNN-RF model, without retraining the model or any denoising process, still achieves satisfying performance with higher accuracy than the other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper details the selection of machine learning models for predicting the effectiveness of a heat pipe system in a concentric tube exchanger. Heat exchanger experiments with methanol as the working fluid were conducted. The value of the angle varied from 0° to 90°, values of temperature varied from 50 °C to 70 °C, and the flow rate varied from 40 to 120 litres per min. Multiple experiments were conducted at different combinations of the input parameters and the effectiveness was measured for each trial. Multiple machine learning algorithms were taken into consideration for prediction. Experimental data were divided into subsets and the performance of the machine learning model was analysed for each of the subsets. For the overall analysis, which included all the three parameters, the random forest algorithm returned the best results with a mean average error of 1.176 and root-mean-square-error of 1.542. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP) is a key parameter for measuring the power output of an internal combustion engine (ICE). This indicator can be used to locate the high efficiency regions of engines. Therefore, it makes sense to predict the IMEP based on the machine learning (ML) approaches. However, different ML models are applicable to different scenarios, so it is important to choose the right model for prediction. The objective of this paper was to compare three ML models' (ANN, SVR, RF) predictive performance in forecasting IMEP indicator with the input parameters spark timing (ST), speed and load. A validated one-dimensional (1D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was employed to provide 756 sets of data for the training, validation, and testing of the model. The results indicated that the random forest (RF) model had the worst prediction performance, and support vector regression (SVR) had a slightly better prediction performance than the artificial neural network (ANN), at least for the investigations in this study. Overall, the ANN and SVR models showed good predictive performance for IMEP, as the coefficient of determination (R2) was close to unity, and the root mean squared error (RMSE) was close to zero. Whereas the overall prediction results of the RF model are acceptable, the RF model does not learn well for some internal engine laws. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microgrids should be continuously monitored in order to maintain suitable voltages over time. Microgrids are mainly monitored remotely, and their measurement data transmitted through lossy communication networks are vulnerable to cyberattacks and packet loss. The current study leverages the idea of data fusion to address this problem. Hence, this paper investigates the effects of estimation fusion using various machine-learning (ML) regression methods as data fusion methods by aggregating the distributed Kalman filter (KF)-based state estimates of a linear smart microgrid in order to achieve more accurate and reliable state estimates. This unreliability in measurements is because they are received through a lossy communication network that incorporates packet loss and cyberattacks. In addition to ML regression methods, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and dependent ordered weighted averaging (DOWA) operators are also employed for further comparisons. The results of simulation on the IEEE 4-bus model validate the effectiveness of the employed ML regression methods through the RMSE, MAE and R-squared indices under the condition of missing and manipulated measurements. In general, the results obtained by the Random Forest regression method were more accurate than those of other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of a research project which investigated permeability prediction for the Precipice Sandstone of the Surat Basin. Machine learning techniques were used for permeability estimation based on multiple wireline logs. This information improves the prediction of CO2 injectivity in this formation. Well logs and core data were collected from 5 boreholes in the Surat Basin, where extensive core data and complete sets of conventional well logs exist for the Precipice Sandstone. Four different machine learning (ML) techniques, including Random Forest (RF), Artificial neural network (ANN), Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Support Vector Regressor (SVR), were independently trained with a wide range of hyper-parameters to ensure that not only is the best model selected, but also the right combination of model parameters is selected. Cross-validation for 20 different combinations of the seven available input logs was used for this study. Based on the performances in the validation and blind testing phases, the ANN with all seven logs used as input was found to give the best performance in predicting permeability for the Precipice Sandstone with the coefficient of determination (R2) of about 0.93 and 0.87 for the training and blind data sets respectively. Multi-regression analysis also appears to be a successful approach to calculate reservoir permeability for the Precipice Sandstone. Models with a complete set of well logs can generate reservoir permeability with R2 of more than 90%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the end, Wagner and Götz implicitly call for further experimental processes and tests I in i and I with i society to learn from failure as much as possible. Energy transitions inherit complex processes full of surprises, unintended consequences, erroneous decisions, uncertainties, paradoxical situations, and sometimes sheer failures. [Extracted from the article]

Aiming at the problem of unbalanced data categories of UHV converter valve fault data, a method for UHV converter valve fault detection based on optimization cost-sensitive extreme random forest is proposed. The misclassification cost gain is integrated into the extreme random forest decision tree as a splitting index, and the inertia weight and learning factor are improved to construct an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm. First, feature extraction and data cleaning are carried out to solve the problems of local data loss, large computational load, and low real-time performance of the model. Then, the classifier training based on the optimization cost-sensitive extreme random forest is used to construct a fault detection model, and the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to output the optimal model parameters, achieving fast response of the model and high classification accuracy, good robustness, and generalization under unbalanced data. Finally, in order to verify its effectiveness, this model is compared with the existing optimization algorithms. The running speed is faster and the fault detection performance is higher, which can meet the actual needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work identifies the most effective machine learning techniques and supervised learning models to estimate power output from photovoltaic (PV) plants precisely. The performance of various regression models is analyzed by harnessing experimental data, including Random Forest regressor, Support Vector regression (SVR), Multi-layer Perceptron regressor (MLP), Linear regressor (LR), Gradient Boosting, k-Nearest Neighbors regressor (KNN), Ridge regressor (Rr), Lasso regressor (Lsr), Polynomial regressor (Plr) and XGBoost regressor (XGB). The methodology applied starts with meticulous data preprocessing steps to ensure dataset integrity. Following the preprocessing phase, which entails eliminating missing values and outliers using Isolation Feature selection based on a correlation threshold is performed to identify relevant parameters for accurate prediction in PV systems. Subsequently, Isolation Forest is employed for outlier detection, followed by model training and evaluation using key performance metrics such as Root-Mean-Squared Error (RMSE), Normalized Root-Mean-Squared Error (NRMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared (R2), Integral Absolute Error (IAE), and Standard Deviation of the Difference (SDD). Among the models evaluated, Random Forest emerges as the top performer, highlighting promising results with an RMSE of 19.413, NRMSE of 0.048%, and an R2 score of 0.968. Furthermore, the Random Forest regressor (the best-performing model) is integrated into a MATLAB application for real-time predictions, enhancing its usability and accessibility for a wide range of applications in renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy consumption is an important indicator for measuring economic development and is closely related to the atmospheric environment. As a demonstration zone for China's high-quality development, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area imposes higher requirements on ecological environment and sustainable development. Therefore, accurate data on energy consumption is crucial for high-quality green development. However, the statistical data on local energy consumption in China is insufficient, and the lack of data is severe, which hinders the analysis of energy consumption at the metropolitan level and the precise implementation of energy policies. Nighttime light data have been widely used in the inversion of energy consumption, but they can only reflect socio-economic activities at night with certain limitations. In this study, a random forest model was developed to estimate metropolitan-level energy consumption in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2020 based on nighttime light data, population data, and urban impervious surface data. The estimation results show that our model shows good performance with an R2 greater than 0.9783 and MAPE less than 9%. A long time series dataset from 2000 to 2020 on energy consumption distribution at a resolution of 500 m in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area was built using our model with a top-down weight allocation method. The spatial and temporal dynamics of energy consumption in the Greater Bay Area were assessed at both the metropolitan and grid levels. The results show a significant increase in energy consumption in the Greater Bay Area with a clear clustering, and approximately 90% of energy consumption is concentrated in 22% of the area. This study established an energy consumption estimation model that comprehensively considers population, urban distribution, and nighttime light data, which effectively solves the problem of missing statistical data and accurately reflects the spatial distribution of energy consumption of the whole Bay Area. This study provides a reference for spatial pattern analysis and refined urban management and energy allocation for regions lacking statistical data on energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increasingly prominent environmental problems, controlling automobile exhaust has become essential to the environment. The fuel consumption of transportation is the critical factor that determines exhaust gas. By analyzing the naturalistic driving data of heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDDTs), this paper explored the influence of engine technical state, road features, weather, and temperature conditions on fuel consumption during driving. The detailed process is as follows: Firstly, we collected 1153 naturalistic driving data from 34 HDDTs and made a specific analysis and summary description of the data; secondly, by establishing a binary Logistic regression model, we quantitatively explored the influence of significant factors on the fuel consumption; meanwhile, based on quantitative analysis of factor's effectiveness, this research used several machine learning algorithms (back-propagation neural network, decision tree, and random forest) to build fuel consumption predictors, and compared the prediction performance of different algorithms. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the decision tree, back-propagation (BP) neural network, and random forest is 81.38%, 83.98%, and 86.58%, respectively. The random forest showed the best performance in predicting. The conclusions can assist transportation companies in formulating driving training strategies and contribute to reducing energy consumption and emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ethanol is one of the most used fuels in Brazil, which is the second-largest producer of this biofuel in the world. The uncertainty of price direction in the future increases the risk for agents operating in this market and can affect a dependent price chain, such as food and gasoline. This paper uses the architecture of recurrent neural networks—Long short-term memory (LSTM)—to predict Brazilian ethanol spot prices for three horizon-times (12, 6 and 3 months ahead). The proposed model is compared to three benchmark algorithms: Random Forest, SVM Linear and RBF. We evaluate statistical measures such as MSE (Mean Squared Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), and accuracy to assess the algorithm robustness. Our findings suggest LSTM outperforms the other techniques in regression, considering both MSE and MAPE but SVM Linear is better to identify price trends. Concerning predictions per se, all errors increase during the pandemic period, reinforcing the challenge to identify patterns in crisis scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document is a correction notice for an article titled "Biogenic Methane Accumulation and Production in the Jurassic Low-Rank Coal, Southwestern Ordos Basin." The correction addresses an error in the original publication, specifically a retracted reference that was considered nonsensical. The correction also clarifies the use of random forest methodology in the research, stating that the removal of the retracted reference does not impact the scientific conclusions. The correction was approved by the Academic Editor and the original publication has been updated. [Extracted from the article]

Achieving relatively high-accuracy short-term wind speed forecasting estimates is a precondition for the construction and grid-connected operation of wind power forecasting systems for wind farms. Currently, most research is focused on the structure of forecasting models and does not consider the selection of input variables, which can have significant impacts on forecasting performance. This paper presents an input variable selection method for wind speed forecasting models. The candidate input variables for various leading periods are selected and random forests (RF) is employed to evaluate the importance of all variable as features. The feature subset with the best evaluation performance is selected as the optimal feature set. Then, kernel-based extreme learning machine is constructed to evaluate the performance of input variables selection based on RF. The results of the case study show that by removing the uncorrelated and redundant features, RF effectively extracts the most strongly correlated set of features from the candidate input variables. By finding the optimal feature combination to represent the original information, RF simplifies the structure of the wind speed forecasting model, shortens the training time required, and substantially improves the model's accuracy and generalization ability, demonstrating that the input variables selected by RF are effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting electricity production from renewable energy sources, such as solar photovoltaic installations, is crucial for effective grid management and energy planning in the transition towards a sustainable future. This study proposes machine learning approaches for predicting electricity production from solar photovoltaic installations at a regional level in Italy, not using data on individual installations. Addressing the challenge of diverse data availability between pinpoint meteorological inputs and aggregated power data for entire regions, we propose leveraging meteorological data from the centroid of each Italian province within each region. Particular attention is given to the selection of the best input features, which leads to augmenting the input with 1-hour-lagged meteorological data and previous-hour power data. Several ML approaches were compared and examined, optimizing the hyperparameters through five-fold cross-validation. The hourly predictions encompass a time horizon ranging from 1 to 24 h. Among tested methods, Kernel Ridge Regression and Random Forest Regression emerge as the most effective models for our specific application. We also performed experiments to assess how frequently the models should be retrained and how frequently the hyperparameters should be optimized in order to comprise between accuracy and computational costs. Our results indicate that once trained, the model can provide accurate predictions for extended periods without frequent retraining, highlighting its long-term reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a vital role in ensuring the safe, efficient, and economical operation of power systems. Accurate load forecasting provides numerous benefits for power suppliers, such as cost reduction, increased reliability, and informed decision-making. However, STLF is a complex task due to various factors, including non-linear trends, multiple seasonality, variable variance, and significant random interruptions in electricity demand time series. To address these challenges, advanced techniques and models are required. This study focuses on the development of an efficient short-term power load forecasting model using the random forest (RF) algorithm. RF combines regression trees through bagging and random subspace techniques to improve prediction accuracy and reduce model variability. The algorithm constructs a forest of trees using bootstrap samples and selects random feature subsets at each node to enhance diversity. Hyperparameters such as the number of trees, minimum sample leaf size, and maximum features for each split are tuned to optimize forecasting results. The proposed model was tested using historical hourly load data from four transformer substations supplying different campus areas of the University of Beira Interior, Portugal. The training data were from January 2018 to December 2021, while the data from 2022 were used for testing. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the RF model in forecasting short-term hourly and one day ahead load and its potential to enhance decision-making processes in smart grid operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tight reservoirs characterized by complex physical properties pose significant challenges for extraction. CO2 flooding, as an EOR technique, offers both economic and environmental advantages. Accurate prediction of recovery rate plays a crucial role in the development of tight oil and gas reservoirs. But the recovery rate is influenced by a complex array of factors. Traditional methods are time-consuming and costly and cannot predict the recovery rate quickly and accurately, necessitating advanced multi-factor analysis-based prediction models. This study uses machine learning models to rapidly predict the recovery of CO2 flooding for tight oil reservoir development, establishes a numerical model for CO2 flooding for low-permeability tight reservoir development based on actual blocks, studies the effects of reservoir parameters, horizontal well parameters, and injection-production parameters on CO2 flooding recovery rate, and constructs a prediction model based on machine learning for the recovery. Using simulated datasets, three models, random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), were trained and tested for accuracy evaluation. Different levels of noise were added to the dataset and denoised, and the effects of data noise and denoising techniques on oil recovery factor prediction were studied. The results showed that the LightGBM model was superior to other models, with R2 values of 0.995, 0.961, 0.921, and 0.877 for predicting EOR for the original dataset, 5% noise dataset, 10% noise dataset, and 15% noise dataset, respectively. Finally, based on the optimized model, the key control factors for CO2 flooding for tight oil reservoirs to enhance oil recovery were analyzed. The novelty of this study is the development of a machine-learning-based method that can provide accurate and cost-effective ORF predictions for CO2 flooding for tight oil reservoir development, optimize the development process in a timely manner, significantly reduce the required costs, and make it a more feasible carbon utilization and EOR strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term Photovoltaic (PV) Power Forecasting (STPF) is considered a topic of utmost importance in smart grids. The deployment of STPF techniques provides fast dispatching in the case of sudden variations due to stochastic weather conditions. This paper presents an efficient data-driven method based on enhanced Random Forest (RF) model. The proposed method employs an ensemble of attribute selection techniques to manage bias/variance optimization for STPF application and enhance the forecasting quality results. The overall architecture strategy gathers the relevant information to constitute a voted feature-weighting vector of weather inputs. The main emphasis in this paper is laid on the knowledge expertise obtained from weather measurements. The feature selection techniques are based on local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations, Extreme Boosting Model, and Elastic Net. A comparative performance investigation using an actual database, collected from the weather sensors, demonstrates the superiority of the proposed technique versus several data-driven machine learning models when applied to a typical distributed PV system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]