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The paper reports the results of a comparative assessment concerned with the effectiveness of identifying the basic forms of partial discharges (PD) measured by the acoustic emission technique (AE), carried out by application of selected machine learning methods. As part of the re-search, the identification involved AE signals registered in laboratory conditions for eight basic classes of PDs that occur in paper-oil insulation systems of high-voltage power equipment. On the basis of acoustic signals emitted by PDs and by application of the frequency descriptor that took the form of a signal power density spectrum (PSD), the assessment involved the possibility of identifying individual types of PD by the analyzed classification algorithms. As part of the research, the results obtained with the use of five independent classification mechanisms were analyzed, namely: k-Nearest Neighbors method (kNN), Naive Bayes Classification, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forests and Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN). The best results were achieved using the SVM classification tuned with polynomial core, which obtained 100% accuracy. Similar results were achieved with the kNN classifier. Random Forests and Naïve Bayes obtained high accuracy over 97%. Throughout the study, identification algorithms with the highest effectiveness in identifying specific forms of PD were established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Creating accurate emission models capable of capturing the variability and dynamics of modern propulsion systems is crucial for future mobility planning. This paper presents a methodology for creating THC and NOx emission models for vehicles equipped with start–stop technology. A key aspect of this endeavor is to find techniques that accurately replicate the engine's stop stages when there are no emissions. To this end, several machine learning techniques were tested using the Python programming language. Random forest and gradient boosting methods demonstrated the best predictive capabilities for THC and NOx emissions, achieving R2 scores of approximately 0.9 for engine emissions. Additionally, recommendations for effective modeling of such emissions from vehicles are presented in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the transition toward the Internet of Everything (IOE), the prediction of energy consumed by household appliances has become a progressively more difficult topic to model. Even with advancements in data analytics and machine learning, several challenges remain to be addressed. Therefore, providing highly accurate and optimized models has become the primary research goal of many studies. This paper analyzes appliance energy consumption through a variety of machine learning-based strategies. Utilizing data recorded from a single-family home, input variables comprised internal temperatures and humidities, lighting consumption, and outdoor conditions including wind speed, visibility, and pressure. Various models were trained and evaluated: (a) multiple linear regression, (b) support vector regression, (c) random forest, (d) gradient boosting, (e) xgboost, and (f) the extra trees regressor. Both feature engineering and hyperparameter tuning methodologies were applied to not only extend existing features but also create new ones that provided improved model performance across all metrics: root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The best model (extra trees) was able to explain 99% of the variance in the training set and 66% in the testing set when using all the predictors. The results were compared with those obtained using a similar methodology. The objective of performing these actions was to show a unique perspective in simulating building performance through data-driven models, identifying how to maximize predictive performance through the use of machine learning-based strategies, as well as understanding the potential benefits of utilizing different models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate prediction of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is crucial for optimizing solar power generation systems, particularly in mountainous areas with complex topography and unique microclimates. These regions face significant challenges due to limited reliable data and the dynamic nature of local weather conditions, which complicate accurate GHI measurement. The scarcity of precise data impedes the development of reliable solar energy prediction models, impacting both economic and environmental outcomes. To address these data scarcity challenges in solar energy prediction, this paper focuses on various locations in Europe and Asia Minor, predominantly in mountainous regions. Advanced machine learning techniques, including random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) regressors, are employed to effectively predict GHI. Additionally, optimizing training data distribution based on cloud opacity values and integrating synthetic data significantly enhance predictive accuracy, with R2 scores ranging from 0.91 to 0.97 across multiple locations. Furthermore, substantial reductions in root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean bias error (MBE) underscore the improved reliability of the predictions. Future research should refine synthetic data generation, optimize additional meteorological and environmental parameter integration, extend methodology to new regions, and test for predicting global tilted irradiance (GTI). The studies should expand training data considerations beyond cloud opacity, incorporating sky cover and sunshine duration to enhance prediction accuracy and reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complex oil and gas two-phase flow exists within an aero-engines bearing cavity scavenge pipe, prone to lubricated self-ignition and coking. Lubricant system designers must be able to accurately identify and understand the flow state of the scavenge pipe. The prediction accuracy of previous models is insufficient to meet the more demanding needs. This paper establishes a visualized flow pattern identification test system for the scavenge pipe, with a test temperature of up to 370 k, using a high-speed camera to photograph four flow patterns, decomposing the pressure signals obtained from high-frequency dynamic pressure sensors using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, and then performing Hilbert transform, using the Hilbert spectrum to quantify the changes of amplitude and frequency with time, and establishing the energy and flow pattern correspondence analysis. Then the energy percentage of IMFs is used as the input of feature values, and the random forest algorithm machine learning is used for predictive classification. The experimental results show that the flow pattern recognition rate established in this paper can reach 98%, which can identify the two-phase flow pattern in the scavenge pipe more objectively and accurately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prognosis of wind turbine failures in real operating conditions is a significant gap in the academic literature and is essential for achieving viable performance parameters for the operation and maintenance of these machines, especially those located offshore. This paper presents a framework for estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of the main bearing using regression models fed operational data (temperature, wind speed, and the active power of the network) collected by a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. The framework begins with a careful data filtering process, followed by creating a degradation profile based on identifying the behavior of temperature time series. It also uses a cross-validation strategy to mitigate data scarcity and increase model robustness by combining subsets of data from different available turbines. Support vector, gradient boosting, random forest, and extra trees models were created, which, in the tests, showed an average of 20 days in estimating the remaining useful life and presented mean absolute error (MAE) values of 0.047 and mean squared errors (MSE) of 0.012. As its main contributions, this work proposes (i) a robust and effective regression modeling method for estimating RUL based on temperature and (ii) an approach for dealing with a lack of data, a common problem in wind turbine operation. The results demonstrate the potential of using these forecasts to support the decision making of the teams responsible for operating and maintaining wind farms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to forecast New York and Los Angeles gasoline spot prices on a daily frequency. The dataset includes gasoline prices and a big set of 128 other relevant variables spanning the period from 17 February 2004 to 26 March 2022. These variables were fed to three tree-based machine learning algorithms: decision trees, random forest, and XGBoost. Furthermore, a variable importance measure (VIM) technique was applied to identify and rank the most important explanatory variables. The optimal model, a trained random forest, achieves a mean absolute percent error (MAPE) in the out-of-sample of 3.23% for the New York and 3.78% for the Los Angeles gasoline spot prices. The first lag, AR (1), of gasoline is the most important variable in both markets; the top five variables are all energy-related. This paper can strengthen the understanding of price determinants and has the potential to inform strategic decisions and policy directions within the energy sector, making it a valuable asset for both industry practitioners and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fuel cell is an energy conversion device that utilizes hydrogen energy through an electrochemical reaction. Despite their many advantages, such as high efficiency, zero emissions, and fast startup, fuel cells have not yet been fully commercialized due to deficiencies in service life, cost, and performance. Efficient evaluation methods for performance and service life are critical for the design and optimization of fuel cells. The purpose of this paper was to review the application of common machine learning algorithms in fuel cells. The significance and status of machine learning applications in fuel cells are briefly described. Common machine learning algorithms, such as artificial neural networks, support vector machines, and random forests are introduced, and their applications in fuel cell performance prediction and optimization are comprehensively elaborated. The review revealed that machine learning algorithms can be successfully used for performance prediction, service life prediction, and fault diagnosis in fuel cells, with good accuracy in solving nonlinear problems. Combined with optimization algorithms, machine learning models can further carry out the optimization of design and operating parameters to achieve multiple optimization goals with good accuracy and efficiency. It is expected that this review paper could help the reader comprehend the state of the art of machine learning applications in fuel fuels and shed light on further development directions in fuel cell research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kicks can lead to well control risks during petroleum drilling, and even more serious kicks may lead to serious casualties, which is the biggest threat factor affecting the safety in the process of petroleum drilling. Therefore, how to detect kicks early and efficiently has become a focus practical problem. Traditional machine learning models require a large amount of labeled data, such kicked sample, and it is difficult to label data, which requires a lot of labor and time. To address the above issues, the deep forest is extended to a transfer learning model to improve the generalization ability. In this paper, a transfer learning model is built to detect kicks early. The source domain model adopts the deep forest model. Deep forest is an ensemble learning model with a hierarchical structure similar to deep learning. Each layer contains a variety of random forests. It is an integration of the model in depth and breadth. In the case of a small sample size (20–60 min), kick can be identified 10 min in advance. The deep forest model is established as the source domaining model, and a cascade forest is added at the last layer according to the transfer learning algorithm to form the classification model of this paper. The experimental results show that the kick prediction accuracy of the model is 80.13% by a confusion matrix. In the target domain, the proposed model performs better than other ensemble learning algorithms, and the accuracy is 5% lower than other SOTA transfer learning algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar power forecasting is of high interest in managing any power system based on solar energy. In the case of photovoltaic (PV) systems, and building integrated PV (BIPV) in particular, it may help to better operate the power grid and to manage the power load and storage. Power forecasting directly based on PV time series has some advantages over solar irradiance forecasting first and PV power modeling afterwards. In this paper, the power forecasting for BIPV systems in a vertical façade is studied using machine learning algorithms based on decision trees. The forecasting scheme employs the skforecast library from the Python environment, which facilitates the implementation of different schemes for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting applications. Firstly, deterministic forecasting of hourly BIPV power was performed with XGBoost and Random Forest algorithms for different cases, showing an improvement in forecasting accuracy when some exogenous variables were used. Secondly, probabilistic forecasting was performed with XGBoost combined with the Bootstrap method. The results of this paper show the capabilities of Random Forest and gradient boosting algorithms, such as XGBoost, to work as regressors in time series forecasting of BIPV power. Mean absolute error in the deterministic forecast, using the most influencing exogenous variables, were around 40% and close below 30% for the south and east array, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is indisputable that power systems are being transformed around the world to increase the use of RES and reduce the use of fossil fuels in overall electricity production. This year, the EU Parliament adopted the Fit for 55 package, which should significantly reduce the use of fossil fuels in the energy balance of EU countries while increasing the use of RES. At the end of 2022, the total number of prosumer installations in Poland amounted to about one million two hundred thousand. Such a high saturation of prosumer micro-installations in the power system causes many threats resulting from their operation. These threats result, among others, from the fact that photovoltaics are classified as unstable sources and the expected production of electricity from such installations is primarily associated with highly variable weather conditions and is only dependent on people to a minor extent. Currently, there is a rapid development of topics related to forecasting the volume of energy production from unstable sources such as wind and photovoltaic power plants. This issue is being actively developed by research units around the world. Scientists use a whole range of tools and models related to forecasting techniques, from physical models to artificial intelligence. According to our findings, the use of machine learning models has the greatest chance of obtaining positive prognostic effects for small, widely distributed prosumer installations. The present paper presents the research results of two energy balance prediction algorithms based on machine learning models. For forecasting, we proposed two regression models, i.e., regularized LASSO regression and random forests. The work analyzed scenarios taking into account both endogenous and exogenous variables as well as direct multi-step forecasting and recursive multi-step forecasting. The training was carried out on real data obtained from a prosumer micro-installation. Finally, it was found that the best forecasting results are obtained with the use of a random forest model trained using a recursive multi-step method and an exogenous scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study used a double machine learning model (based on the random forest algorithm) and spatial Durbin DIDs model to conduct quasi-natural experiments. The results are as follows: (1) innovation and reform policy regarding regional industrial chains as well as their resilience can significantly and positively address the development of China's impossible triangle coupling of energy; (2) implementing the innovation and reform policy for regional industrial chains in other regions can have a significant positive spatial transmission effect on the impossible triangle coupling coordinated development of energy in the region; (3) regional industrial chain resilience can produce a significant positive mediating effect between the innovation and reform policy of regional industrial chains and the safety, reliability, and economic feasibility of green and clean energy systems; (4) under the counterfactual framework, the mechanism path "innovation and reform policy of the regional industry chain→regional industry chain resilience→coordination degree of impossible triangle coupling of energy" has significantly positive direct and indirect effects in both the treatment group and the control group. However, "innovation and reform policy of the regional industrial chain→regional industrial chain resilience→the energy sector's impossible triangle coupling coordination degree" and "innovation and reform policy of the regional industrial chain→leading power of the regional industrial chain→the energy sector's impossible triangle coupling coordination degree" have significantly positive direct and indirect effects in the treatment group, but only the direct effect is significant in the control group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, the condition assessment of transformer winding based on frequency response analysis (FRA) measurements demands skilled personnel. Despite many research efforts in the last decade, there is still no definitive methodology for the interpretation and condition assessment of transformer winding based on FRA results, and this is a major challenge for the industrial application of the FRA method. To overcome this challenge, this paper proposes a transformer condition assessment (TCA) algorithm, which is based on numerical indices, and a supervised machine learning technique to develop a method for the automatic interpretation of FRA results. For this purpose, random forest (RF) classifiers were developed for the first time to identify the condition of transformer winding and classify different faults in the transformer windings. Mainly, six common states of the transformer were classified in this research, i.e., healthy transformer, healthy transformer with saturated core, mechanically damaged winding, short-circuited winding, open-circuited winding, and repeatability issues. In this research, the data from 139 FRA measurements performed in more than 80 power transformers were used. The database belongs to the transformers having different ratings, sizes, designs, and manufacturers. The results reveal that the proposed TCA algorithm can effectively assess the transformer winding condition with up to 93% accuracy without much human intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pipeline corrosion is one of the leading causes of failures in the transmission of gas and hazardous liquids in the oil and gas industry. In-line inspection is a non-destructive inspection for detecting corrosion defects in pipelines. Defects are measured in terms of their width, length and depth. Consecutive in-line inspection data are used to determine the pipeline's corrosion growth rate and its remnant life, which set the operational and maintenance activities of the pipeline. The traditional approach of manually processing in-line inspection data has various weaknesses, including being time consuming due to huge data volume and complexity, prone to error, subject to biased judgement by experts and challenging for matching of in-line inspection datasets. This paper aimed to contribute to the adoption of machine learning approaches in classifying pipeline defects as per Pipeline Operator Forum requirements and matching in-line inspection data for determining the corrosion growth rate and remnant life of pipelines. Machine learning techniques, namely, decision tree, random forest, support vector machines and logistic regression, were applied in the classification of pipeline defects using Phyton programming. The performance of each technique in terms of the accuracy of results was compared. The results showed that the decision tree classifier model was the most accurate (99.9%) compared with the other classifiers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a methodology based on data-driven models is developed to predict the NOx emissions of an internal combustion engine using, as inputs, a set of ECU channels representing the main engine actuations. Several regressors derived from the machine learning and deep learning algorithms are tested and compared in terms of prediction accuracy and computational efficiency to assess the most suitable for the aim of this work. Six Real Driving Emission (RDE) cycles performed at the roll bench were used for the model training, while another two RDE cycles and a steady-state map of NOx emissions were used to test the model under dynamic and stationary conditions, respectively. The models considered include Polynomial Regressor (PR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Random Forest Regressor (RF), Light Gradient Boosting Regressor (LightGBR) and Feed-Forward Neural Network (ANN). Ensemble methods such as Random Forest and LightGBR proved to have similar performances in terms of prediction accuracy, with LightGBR requiring a much lower training time. Afterwards, LightGBR predictions are compared with experimental NOx measurements in steady-state conditions and during two RDE cycles. Coefficient of determination (R2), normalized root mean squared error (nRMSE) and mean average percentage error (MAPE) are the main metrics used. The NOx emissions predicted by the LightGBR show good coherence with the experimental test set, both with the steady-state NOx map (R2 = 0.91 and MAPE = 6.42%) and with the RDE cycles (R2 = 0.95 and nRMSE = 0.04). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate solar radiation forecasting is essential to operate power systems safely under high shares of photovoltaic generation. This paper compares the performance of several machine learning algorithms for solar radiation forecasting using endogenous and exogenous inputs and proposes an ensemble feature selection method to choose not only the most related input parameters but also their past observations values. The machine learning algorithms used are: Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBT), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) and Voting-Average (VOA), which integrates SVR, XGBT and CatBoost. The proposed ensemble feature selection is based on Pearson coefficient, random forest, mutual information and relief. Prediction accuracy is evaluated based on several metrics using a real database from Salvador, Brazil. Different prediction time-horizons are considered: 1 h, 2 h and 3 h ahead. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed ensemble feature selection approach improves forecasting accuracy and that VOA performs better than the other algorithms in all prediction time horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In predicting energy consumption, classic econometric and statistical models are used to forecast energy consumption. These models may have limitations in an increasingly fast-changing energy market, which requires big data analysis of energy consumption patterns and relevant variables using complex mathematical tools. In current literature, there are minimal comparison studies reviewing machine learning algorithms to predict energy consumption in Korea. To bridge this gap, this paper compared three different machine learning algorithms, namely the Random Forest (RF) model, XGBoost (XGB) model, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. These algorithms were applied in Period 1 (prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic) and Period 2 (after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic). Period 1 was characterized by an upward trend in energy consumption, while Period 2 showed a reduction in energy consumption. LSTM performed best in its prediction power specifically in Period 1, and RF outperformed the other models in Period 2. Findings, therefore, suggested the applicability of machine learning to forecast energy consumption and also demonstrated that traditional econometric approaches may outperform machine learning when there is less unknown irregularity in the time series, but machine learning can work better with unexpected irregular time series data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vibration signals for offshore wind-turbine high-speed bearings are often contaminated with noises due to complex environmental and structural loads, which increase the difficulty of fault detection and diagnosis. In view of this problem, we propose a fault-diagnosis strategy with good noise immunity in this paper by integrating the two-dimensional convolutional neural network (2DCNN) with random forest (RF), which is supposed to utilize both CNN's automatic feature-extraction capability and the robust discrimination performance of RF classifiers. More specifically, the raw 1D time-domain bearing-vibration signals are transformed into 2D grayscale images at first, which are then fed to the 2DCNN-RF model for fault diagnosis. At the same time, three procedures, including exponential linear unit (ELU), batch normalization (BN), and dropout, are introduced in the model to improve feature-extraction performance and the noise immune capability. In addition, when the 2DCNN feature extractor is trained, the obtained feature vectors are passed to the RF classifier to improve the classification accuracy and generalization ability of the model. The experimental results show that the diagnostic accuracy of the 2DCNN-RF model could achieve 99.548% on the CWRU high-speed bearing dataset, which outperforms the standard CNN and other standard machine-learning and deep-learning algorithms. Furthermore, when the vibration signals are polluted with noises, the 2DCNN-RF model, without retraining the model or any denoising process, still achieves satisfying performance with higher accuracy than the other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper details the selection of machine learning models for predicting the effectiveness of a heat pipe system in a concentric tube exchanger. Heat exchanger experiments with methanol as the working fluid were conducted. The value of the angle varied from 0° to 90°, values of temperature varied from 50 °C to 70 °C, and the flow rate varied from 40 to 120 litres per min. Multiple experiments were conducted at different combinations of the input parameters and the effectiveness was measured for each trial. Multiple machine learning algorithms were taken into consideration for prediction. Experimental data were divided into subsets and the performance of the machine learning model was analysed for each of the subsets. For the overall analysis, which included all the three parameters, the random forest algorithm returned the best results with a mean average error of 1.176 and root-mean-square-error of 1.542. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP) is a key parameter for measuring the power output of an internal combustion engine (ICE). This indicator can be used to locate the high efficiency regions of engines. Therefore, it makes sense to predict the IMEP based on the machine learning (ML) approaches. However, different ML models are applicable to different scenarios, so it is important to choose the right model for prediction. The objective of this paper was to compare three ML models' (ANN, SVR, RF) predictive performance in forecasting IMEP indicator with the input parameters spark timing (ST), speed and load. A validated one-dimensional (1D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was employed to provide 756 sets of data for the training, validation, and testing of the model. The results indicated that the random forest (RF) model had the worst prediction performance, and support vector regression (SVR) had a slightly better prediction performance than the artificial neural network (ANN), at least for the investigations in this study. Overall, the ANN and SVR models showed good predictive performance for IMEP, as the coefficient of determination (R2) was close to unity, and the root mean squared error (RMSE) was close to zero. Whereas the overall prediction results of the RF model are acceptable, the RF model does not learn well for some internal engine laws. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microgrids should be continuously monitored in order to maintain suitable voltages over time. Microgrids are mainly monitored remotely, and their measurement data transmitted through lossy communication networks are vulnerable to cyberattacks and packet loss. The current study leverages the idea of data fusion to address this problem. Hence, this paper investigates the effects of estimation fusion using various machine-learning (ML) regression methods as data fusion methods by aggregating the distributed Kalman filter (KF)-based state estimates of a linear smart microgrid in order to achieve more accurate and reliable state estimates. This unreliability in measurements is because they are received through a lossy communication network that incorporates packet loss and cyberattacks. In addition to ML regression methods, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and dependent ordered weighted averaging (DOWA) operators are also employed for further comparisons. The results of simulation on the IEEE 4-bus model validate the effectiveness of the employed ML regression methods through the RMSE, MAE and R-squared indices under the condition of missing and manipulated measurements. In general, the results obtained by the Random Forest regression method were more accurate than those of other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of a research project which investigated permeability prediction for the Precipice Sandstone of the Surat Basin. Machine learning techniques were used for permeability estimation based on multiple wireline logs. This information improves the prediction of CO2 injectivity in this formation. Well logs and core data were collected from 5 boreholes in the Surat Basin, where extensive core data and complete sets of conventional well logs exist for the Precipice Sandstone. Four different machine learning (ML) techniques, including Random Forest (RF), Artificial neural network (ANN), Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Support Vector Regressor (SVR), were independently trained with a wide range of hyper-parameters to ensure that not only is the best model selected, but also the right combination of model parameters is selected. Cross-validation for 20 different combinations of the seven available input logs was used for this study. Based on the performances in the validation and blind testing phases, the ANN with all seven logs used as input was found to give the best performance in predicting permeability for the Precipice Sandstone with the coefficient of determination (R2) of about 0.93 and 0.87 for the training and blind data sets respectively. Multi-regression analysis also appears to be a successful approach to calculate reservoir permeability for the Precipice Sandstone. Models with a complete set of well logs can generate reservoir permeability with R2 of more than 90%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting electricity production from renewable energy sources, such as solar photovoltaic installations, is crucial for effective grid management and energy planning in the transition towards a sustainable future. This study proposes machine learning approaches for predicting electricity production from solar photovoltaic installations at a regional level in Italy, not using data on individual installations. Addressing the challenge of diverse data availability between pinpoint meteorological inputs and aggregated power data for entire regions, we propose leveraging meteorological data from the centroid of each Italian province within each region. Particular attention is given to the selection of the best input features, which leads to augmenting the input with 1-hour-lagged meteorological data and previous-hour power data. Several ML approaches were compared and examined, optimizing the hyperparameters through five-fold cross-validation. The hourly predictions encompass a time horizon ranging from 1 to 24 h. Among tested methods, Kernel Ridge Regression and Random Forest Regression emerge as the most effective models for our specific application. We also performed experiments to assess how frequently the models should be retrained and how frequently the hyperparameters should be optimized in order to comprise between accuracy and computational costs. Our results indicate that once trained, the model can provide accurate predictions for extended periods without frequent retraining, highlighting its long-term reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increasingly prominent environmental problems, controlling automobile exhaust has become essential to the environment. The fuel consumption of transportation is the critical factor that determines exhaust gas. By analyzing the naturalistic driving data of heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDDTs), this paper explored the influence of engine technical state, road features, weather, and temperature conditions on fuel consumption during driving. The detailed process is as follows: Firstly, we collected 1153 naturalistic driving data from 34 HDDTs and made a specific analysis and summary description of the data; secondly, by establishing a binary Logistic regression model, we quantitatively explored the influence of significant factors on the fuel consumption; meanwhile, based on quantitative analysis of factor's effectiveness, this research used several machine learning algorithms (back-propagation neural network, decision tree, and random forest) to build fuel consumption predictors, and compared the prediction performance of different algorithms. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the decision tree, back-propagation (BP) neural network, and random forest is 81.38%, 83.98%, and 86.58%, respectively. The random forest showed the best performance in predicting. The conclusions can assist transportation companies in formulating driving training strategies and contribute to reducing energy consumption and emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tight reservoirs characterized by complex physical properties pose significant challenges for extraction. CO2 flooding, as an EOR technique, offers both economic and environmental advantages. Accurate prediction of recovery rate plays a crucial role in the development of tight oil and gas reservoirs. But the recovery rate is influenced by a complex array of factors. Traditional methods are time-consuming and costly and cannot predict the recovery rate quickly and accurately, necessitating advanced multi-factor analysis-based prediction models. This study uses machine learning models to rapidly predict the recovery of CO2 flooding for tight oil reservoir development, establishes a numerical model for CO2 flooding for low-permeability tight reservoir development based on actual blocks, studies the effects of reservoir parameters, horizontal well parameters, and injection-production parameters on CO2 flooding recovery rate, and constructs a prediction model based on machine learning for the recovery. Using simulated datasets, three models, random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), were trained and tested for accuracy evaluation. Different levels of noise were added to the dataset and denoised, and the effects of data noise and denoising techniques on oil recovery factor prediction were studied. The results showed that the LightGBM model was superior to other models, with R2 values of 0.995, 0.961, 0.921, and 0.877 for predicting EOR for the original dataset, 5% noise dataset, 10% noise dataset, and 15% noise dataset, respectively. Finally, based on the optimized model, the key control factors for CO2 flooding for tight oil reservoirs to enhance oil recovery were analyzed. The novelty of this study is the development of a machine-learning-based method that can provide accurate and cost-effective ORF predictions for CO2 flooding for tight oil reservoir development, optimize the development process in a timely manner, significantly reduce the required costs, and make it a more feasible carbon utilization and EOR strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a parallel hybrid electric vehicle produced within the scope of our project titled "Development of Fuel Efficiency Enhancing and Innovative Technologies for Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles" has been modeled. Firstly, a new rule-based control method is proposed to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emission values in driving cycles in the experimental model of the parallel hybrid electric vehicle produced within the scope of this project. The proposed control method ensures that the internal combustion engine (ICE) operates at the optimum point. In addition, the electric motor (EM) is activated more frequently at low speeds, and the electric motor can also work as a generator. Then, a new dataset was also created on a traffic-free racetrack with the proposed control method for fuel consumption estimation of a parallel hybrid electric vehicle using ECE-15 (Urban Driving Cycle), EUDC (Extra Urban Driving Cycle), and NEDC (New European Driving Cycle) driving cycles. The data set is dependent on 11 different input variables, which complicates the system. Afterward, the fuel estimation process is made with seven different machine learning methods (ML), and these methods are compared using the obtained data set. To avoid overfitting machine learning, two different test data sets were created. The Random Forest algorithm is the most suitable technique in terms of training and testing the fuel consumption model using correlation coefficient ( R 2 ), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) simulation appropriateness for both test datasets. Moreover, the random forest algorithm achieved an impressive accuracy of 97% and 90% for both test datasets, outperforming the other algorithms. Furthermore, the proposed method consumes 4.72 L of fuel per 100 km, while the gasoline-powered vehicle consumes 7 L of fuel per 100 km. The results show that the proposed method emits 4.69 kg less C O 2 emissions. The effectiveness of the Random Forest Algorithm has been verified by both simulation results and real-world data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compressional velocity (Vp) and bulk density (ρb) logs are essential for characterizing gas hydrates and near-seafloor sediments; however, it is sometimes difficult to acquire these logs due to poor borehole conditions, safety concerns, or cost-related issues. We present a machine learning approach to predict either compressional Vp or ρb logs with high accuracy and low error in near-seafloor sediments within water-saturated intervals, in intervals where hydrate fills fractures, and intervals where hydrate occupies the primary pore space. We use scientific-quality logging-while-drilling well logs, gamma ray, ρb, Vp, and resistivity to train the machine learning model to predict Vp or ρb logs. Of the six machine learning algorithms tested (multilinear regression, polynomial regression, polynomial regression with ridge regularization, K nearest neighbors, random forest, and multilayer perceptron), we find that the random forest and K nearest neighbors algorithms are best suited to predicting Vp and ρb logs based on coefficients of determination (R2) greater than 70% and mean absolute percentage errors less than 4%. Given the high accuracy and low error results for Vp and ρb prediction in both hydrate and water-saturated sediments, we argue that our model can be applied in most LWD wells to predict Vp or ρb logs in near-seafloor siliciclastic sediments on continental slopes irrespective of the presence or absence of gas hydrate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of building energy need plays a fundamental role in building design, despite the high computational cost to search for optimal energy saving solutions. An important advancement in the reduction of computational time could come from the application of machine learning models to circumvent energy simulations. With the goal of drastically limiting the number of simulations, in this paper we investigate the regression performance of different machine learning models, i.e., Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting, trained on a small data-set of energy simulations performed on a case study building. Among the XX algorithms, the tree-based Extreme Gradient Boosting showed the best performance. Overall, we find that machine learning methods offer efficient and interpretable solutions, that could help academics and professionals in shaping better design strategies, informed by feature importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The classification of drilling conditions is a crucial task in the drilling process, playing a vital role in improving drilling efficiency and reducing costs. In this study, we propose an improved stacking ensemble learning algorithm with the objective of enhancing the performance of drilling conditions classification. Additionally, this algorithm aims to have a positive impact on automated drilling time estimation and the continuous improvement of efficiency. In our experimental setup, we employed various base learners, such as random forests, support vector machine, and the K-nearest neighbors algorithm, as initial models for the task of drilling conditions classification. To improve the model's expressive power and feature relevance specifically for this task, we enhanced the meta-model component of the stacking algorithm by incorporating feature engineering techniques. The experimental results show that the improved ensemble learning algorithm achieves an accuracy and recall rate of 97% and 98%, respectively. Through continuous improvement in drilling operations, the average sliding time is reduced by 21.1%, and the average Rate of Penetration (ROP) is increased by 15.65%. This research holds significant importance for engineering practice in the drilling industry, providing robust support for optimizing and enhancing the drilling process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the penetration rate of distributed generators (DG) in active distribution networks (ADNs) gradually increases, it is necessary to accurately estimate the operating state of the ADNs to ensure their safe and stable operation. However, the high randomness and volatility of distributed generator output and active loads have increased the difficulty of state estimation. To solve this problem, a method is proposed for forecasting-aided state estimation (FASE) in ADNs, which integrates the optimal extreme random forest based on the maximum average energy concentration (MAEC) and variable mode decomposition (VMD) of states. Firstly, a parameter optimization model based on MAEC is constructed to decompose the state variables of the ADNs into a set of intrinsic mode components using VMD. Then, strongly correlated weather and date features in ADNs state prediction are selected using the multivariate rapid maximum information coefficient (RapidMIC) based on Schmidt orthogonal decomposition. Finally, by combining the set of intrinsic mode functions of the ADNs state, calendar rules, and weather features, an ensemble FASE method based on the extreme random tree (ERT) ensemble for the ADNs based on cubature particle filtering (CPF) is developed. An optimization model based on mean absolute error and root mean square error is established to obtain the optimal integration strategy and final estimation results. Simulation verification is performed on the IEEE 118-bus standard distribution system. The results show that the proposed method achieves higher accuracy compared to other estimation methods, with root mean square errors of 1.4902 × 10−4 for voltage magnitude and 4.8915 × 10−3 for phase angle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Participants in deregulated electricity markets face risks from price volatility due to various factors, including fuel prices, renewable energy production, electricity demand, and crises such as COVID-19 and energy-related issues. Price forecasting is used to mitigate risk in markets trading goods which have high price volatility. Forecasting in electricity markets is difficult and challenging as volatility is attributed to many unpredictable factors. This work studies and reports the performance both in terms of forecasting error and of computational time of forecasting algorithms that are based on Extreme Learning Machine, Artificial Neural Network, XGBoost and random forest. All these machine learning techniques are combined with the Bootstrap technique of creating new samples from the available ones in order to improve the forecasting errors. In order to assess the performance of these methodologies, the Day-Ahead market prices are divided into three classes, namely normal, extremely high and negative, and these algorithms are subsequently used to provide forecasts for the whole year 2020 of the German and Finnish Day-Ahead markets. The average yearly forecasting errors along with the computation time required by each methodology are reported. The findings indicate that the random forest algorithm performs best for the normal and extremely high price categories, while XGBoost demonstrates better results for the negative price category. The methodology based on Extreme Learning Machine requires the least computational time and achieves forecasting errors that are comparable to the best-performing methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The total organic carbon (TOC) content of organic-rich shale is a key parameter in screening for potential source rocks and sweet spots of shale oil/gas. Traditional methods of determining the TOC content, such as the geochemical experiments and the empirical mathematical regression method, are either high cost and low-efficiency, or universally non-applicable and low-accuracy. In this study, we propose three machine learning models of random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and XGBoost to predict the TOC content using well logs, and the performance of each model are compared with the traditional empirical methods. First, the decision tree algorithm is used to identify the optimal set of well logs from a total of 15. Then, 816 data points of well logs and the TOC content data collected from five different shale formations are used to train and test these three models. Finally, the accuracy of three models is validated by predicting the unknown TOC content data from a shale oil well. The results show that the RF model provides the best prediction for the TOC content, with R2 = 0.915, MSE = 0.108, and MAE = 0.252, followed by the XGBoost, while the SVR gives the lowest predictive accuracy. Nevertheless, all three machine learning models outperform the traditional empirical methods such as Schmoker gamma-ray log method, multiple linear regression method and ΔlgR method. Overall, the proposed machine learning models are powerful tools for predicting the TOC content of shale and improving the oil/gas exploration efficiency in a different formation or a different basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Injecting power plant flue gas into a goaf stores CO2 in the flue gas and effectively prevents the spontaneous combustion of the coal remaining in the goaf. Here, we investigated the adsorption behavior of three types of coal at normal temperature and pressure using a self-developed adsorption experimental device. We used a specific surface area and porosity analyzer to study the effects of pore structure, mineral content, and moisture content on CO2 adsorption in coal. Based on the experimental data, we designed a multifactor CO2 adsorption prediction model based on a backpropagation (BP) neural network. The results indicated that the pore size of most micropores in coal was in the range of 0.5–0.7 and 0.8–0.9 nm. The specific surface area and pore volume were positively correlated with the CO2-saturated adsorption capacity, whereas the mean pore diameter, mineral content, and moisture content were inversely associated with the CO2-saturated adsorption amount. The accuracy of the multifactor BP neural network prediction model was satisfactory: the determination coefficients (R2) of the training and test sets were both above 0.98, the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the test set were both less than 0.1, and the prediction results satisfied the requirements. To optimize the prediction performance of the model, we used the random forest algorithm to calculate the importance of each factor. The sum of the importance weights of the specific surface area, moisture content, and pore volume was 91.6%, which was much higher than that of the other two factors. Therefore, we constructed an optimization model with specific surface area, moisture content, and pore volume as input variables. The R2 values of the training and test sets in the simplified model were improved compared with those of the multifactor model, the RMSE and MAE were reduced, and the fitting effect was ideal. The prediction model of CO2 adsorption in coal based on the BP neural network can predict the CO2 adsorption capacity of coal under different physical and chemical conditions, thereby providing theoretical support for the application of CO2 storage technology in goafs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Porous carbons as solid adsorbent materials possess effective porosity characteristics that are the most important factors for gas storage. The chemical activating routes facilitate hydrogen storage by adsorbing on the high surface area and microporous features of porous carbon-based adsorbents. The present research proposed to predict H2 storage using four nature-inspired algorithms applied in the random forest (RF) model. Various carbon-based adsorbents, chemical activating agents, ratios, micro-structural features, and operational parameters as input variables are applied in the ML model to predict H2 uptake (wt%). Particle swarm and gray wolf optimizations (PSO and GWO) in the RF model display accuracy in the train and test phases, with an R2 of ~0.98 and 0.91, respectively. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the ranks for temperature, total pore volume, specific surface area, and micropore volume in first to fourth, with relevancy scores of 1 and 0.48. The feasibility of algorithms in training sizes 80 to 60% evaluated that RMSE and MAE achieved 0.6 to 1, and 0.38 to 0.52. This study contributes to the development of sustainable energy sources by providing a predictive model and insights into the design of porous carbon adsorbents for hydrogen storage. The use of nature-inspired algorithms in the model development process is also a novel approach that could be applied to other areas of materials science and engineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on batteries' State of Charge (SOC) estimation for equivalent circuit models based on the Kalman Filter (KF) framework and machine learning algorithms remains relatively limited. Most studies are focused on a few machine learning algorithms and do not present comprehensive analysis and comparison. Furthermore, most of them focus on obtaining the state space parameters of the Kalman filter frame algorithm models using machine learning algorithms and then substituting the state space parameters into the Kalman filter frame algorithm to estimate the SOC. Such algorithms are highly coupled, and present high complexity and low practicability. This study aims to integrate machine learning with the Kalman filter frame algorithm, and to estimate the final SOC by using different combinations of the input, output, and intermediate variable values of five Kalman filter frame algorithms as the input of the machine learning algorithms of six main streams. These are: linear regression, support vector Regression, XGBoost, AdaBoost, random forest, and LSTM; the algorithm coupling is lower for two-way parameter adjustment and is not applied between the machine learning and Kalman filtering framework algorithms. The results demonstrate that the integrated learning algorithm significantly improves the estimation accuracy when compared to the pure Kalman filter framework or the machine learning algorithms. Among the various integrated algorithms, the random forest and Kalman filter framework presents the highest estimation accuracy along with good real-time performance. Therefore, it can be implemented in various engineering applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent advancements in the Internet of Things and Machine Learning techniques have allowed the deployment of sensors on a large scale to monitor the environment and model and predict individual thermal comfort. The existing techniques have a greater focus on occupancy detection, estimations, and localization to balance energy usage and thermal comfort satisfaction. Different sensors, actuators, and analytic data methods are often non-invasively utilized to analyze data from occupant surroundings, identify occupant existence, estimate their numbers, and trigger the necessary action to complete a task. The efficiency of the non-invasive strategies documented in the literature, on the other hand, is rather poor due to the low quality of the datasets utilized in model training and the selection of machine learning technology. This study combines data from camera and environmental sensing using interactive learning and a rule-based classifier to improve the collection and quality of the datasets and data pre-processing. The study compiles a new comprehensive public set of training datasets for building occupancy profile prediction with over 40,000 records. To the best of our knowledge, it is the largest dataset to date, with the most realistic and challenging setting in building occupancy prediction. Furthermore, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that attained a robust occupancy count by considering a multimodal input to a single output regression model through the mining and mapping of feature importance, which has advantages over statistical approaches. The proposed solution is tested in a living room with a prototype system integrated with various sensors to obtain occupant-surrounding environmental datasets. The model's prediction results indicate that the proposed solution can obtain data, and process and predict the occupants' presence and their number with high accuracy values of 99.7% and 99.35%, respectively, using random forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydroelectric power plants (HEPPs) are renewable energy power plants with the highest installed power in the world. The control systems are responsible for stopping the relevant unit safely in case of any malfunction while ensuring the desired operating point. Conventional control systems detect anomalies at certain limits or predefined threshold values by evaluating analog signals regardless of differences caused by operating conditions. In this study, using real data from a large hydro unit (>150 MW), a normal behavior model of a hydraulic governor's oil circulation in an operational HEPP is created using several machine learning methods and historical data obtained from the HEPP's SCADA system. Model outputs resulted in up to 96.45% success of prediction with less than 1% absolute deviation from actual measurements and an R2 score of 0.985 with the random forest regression method. This novel approach makes the model outputs far more appropriate to use as an active threshold value changing for different operating conditions, eliminating insufficiency of the constant threshold, resulting in the detection of anomalies in early stages and taking precautions accordingly. The study fills the gap in the literature on anomaly detection in hydraulic power units, which is a demanding task with state-of-the-art methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the various climatic zones of India, machine learning (ML) models are created in the current work to forecast monthly-average diffuse solar radiation (DSR). The long-term solar radiation data are taken from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, provided for 21 cities that span all of India's climatic zones. The diffusion coefficient and diffuse fraction are the two groups of ML models with dual input parameters (sunshine ratio and clearness index) that are built and compared (each category has seven models). To create ML models, two well-known ML techniques, random forest (RF) and k-nearest neighbours (KNN), are used. The proposed ML models are compared with well-known models that are found in the literature. The ML models are ranked according to their overall and within predictive power using the Global Performance Indicator (GPI). It is discovered that KNN models generally outperform RF models. The results reveal that in diffusion coefficient models perform well than diffuse fraction models. Moreover, functional form 2 is the best followed by form 6. The ML models created here can be effectively used to accurately forecast DSR in various climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In most manufacturing industries, squirrel cage induction motors (SCIMs) are essential due to their robust nature, high torque generation, and low maintenance costs, so their failure often times affects productivity, profitability, reliability, etc. While various research studies presented techniques for addressing most of these machines' prevailing issues, fault detection in cases of low slip or, low load, and no loading conditions for motor current signature analysis still remains a great concern. When compared to the impact on the machine at full load conditions, fault detection at low load conditions helps mitigate the impact of the damage on SCIM and reduces maintenance costs. Using stator current data from the SCIM's direct online starter method, this study presents a feature engineering-aided fault classification method for SCIM at minor-load conditions based on a filter approach using the support vector classification (SVC) algorithm as the classifier. This method leverages the loop-hole of the Fourier Transform at minor-load conditions by harnessing the uniqueness of the Hilbert Transform (HT) to present a methodology that combines different feature engineering technologies to excite, extract, and select 10 discriminant information using a filter-based approach as the selection tool for fault classification. With the selected features, the SVC performed exceptionally well, with a significant diagnostic performance accuracy of 97.32%. Further testing with other well-known robust classifiers such as decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), gradient boost classifier (GBC), stochastic gradient descent (SGD), and global assessment metrics revealed that the SVC is reliable in terms of accuracy and computation speeds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Random forest (RF) is one of the most popular machine learning (ML) models used for both classification and regression problems. As an ensemble model, it demonstrates high predictive accuracy and low variance, while being easy to learn and optimize. In this study, we use RF for short-term load forecasting (STLF), focusing on data representation and training modes. We consider seven methods of defining input patterns and three training modes: local, global and extended global. We also investigate key RF hyperparameters to learn about their optimal settings. The experimental part of the work demonstrates on four STLF problems that our model, in its optimal variant, can outperform both statistical and ML models, providing the most accurate forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In smart grids (SGs), the systematic utilization of consumer energy data while maintaining its privacy is of paramount importance. This research addresses this problem by energy theft detection while preserving the privacy of client data. In particular, this research identifies centralized models as more accurate in predicting energy theft in SGs but with no or significantly less data protection. Current research proposes a novel federated learning (FL) framework, namely FedDP, to tackle this issue. The proposed framework enables various clients to benefit from on-device prediction with very little communication overhead and to learn from the experience of other clients with the help of a central server (CS). Furthermore, for the accurate identification of energy theft, the use of a novel federated voting classifier (FVC) is proposed. FVC uses the majority voting-based consensus of traditional machine learning (ML) classifiers namely, random forests (RF), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and bagging classifiers (BG). To the best of our knowledge, conventional ML classifiers have never been used in a federated manner for energy theft detection in SGs. Finally, substantial experiments are performed on the real-world energy consumption dataset. Results illustrate that the proposed model can accurately and efficiently detect energy theft in SGs while guaranteeing the security of client data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermodynamic models are usually employed to predict formation condition of hydrates. However, these thermodynamic models usually require a large amount of calculations to approach phase equilibrium. Additionally, parameters included in the thermodynamic model need to be calibrated based on the experimental data, which leads to high uncertainties in the predicted results. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning as one of sub-discipline has been developed and been widely applied in various research area. In this work, machine learning was innovatively employed to predict the formation condition of natural gas hydrates to overcome the high computation cost and low accuracy. Three data-driven models, Random Forest (RF), Naive Bayes (NB), Support Vector Regression (SVR) were tentatively used to determine the formation condition of hydrate formed by pure and mixed gases. Experimental data reported in previous work were taken to train and test the machine learning models. As a representative thermodynamic model the Chen–Guo (C-G) model was used to analyze the computational efficiency and accuracy of machine learning models. The comparison of results predicted by C-G model and machine learning models with the experimental data indicated that the RF model performed better than the NB and SVR models on both computation speed and accuracy. According to the experimental data, the average AADP calculated by the C-G model is 7.62 times that calculated by the RF model. Meanwhile, the average time costed by the C-G model is 75.65 times that by the RF model. Compared with the other two machine learning models, the RF model is expected to be used in predicting the formation condition of natural gas hydrate under field conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The geological sequestration of CO2 in deep saline aquifers is one of the most effective strategies to reduce greenhouse emissions from the stationary point sources of CO2. However, it is a complex task to quantify the storage capacity of an aquifer as it is a function of various geological characteristics and operational decisions. This study applies physics-based proxy modeling by using multiple machine learning (ML) models to predict the CO2 trapping scenarios in a deep saline aquifer. A compositional reservoir simulator was used to develop a base case proxy model to simulate the CO2 trapping mechanisms (i.e., residual, solubility, and mineral trapping) for 275 years following a 25-year CO2 injection period in a deep saline aquifer. An expansive dataset comprising 19,800 data points was generated by varying several key geological and decision parameters to simulate multiple iterations of the base case model. The dataset was used to develop, train, and validate four robust ML models—multilayer perceptron (MLP), random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB). We analyzed the sequestered CO2 using the ML models by residual, solubility, and mineral trapping mechanisms. Based on the statistical accuracy results, with a coefficient of determination (R2) value of over 0.999, both RF and XGB had an excellent predictive ability for the cross-validated dataset. The proposed XGB model has the best CO2 trapping performance prediction with R2 values of 0.99988, 0.99968, and 0.99985 for residual trapping, mineralized trapping, and dissolution trapping mechanisms, respectively. Furthermore, a feature importance analysis for the RF algorithm identified reservoir monitoring time as the most critical feature dictating changes in CO2 trapping performance, while relative permeability hysteresis, permeability, and porosity of the reservoir were some of the key geological parameters. For XGB, however, the importance of uncertain geologic parameters varied based on different trapping mechanisms. The findings from this study show that the physics-based smart proxy models can be used as a robust predictive tool to estimate the sequestration of CO2 in deep saline aquifers with similar reservoir characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding solar energy has become crucial for the development of modern societies. For this reason, significant effort has been placed on building models of solar resource assessment. Here, we analyzed satellite imagery and solar radiation data of three years (2012, 2013, and 2014) to build seven predictive models of the solar energy obtained at different altitudes above sea level. The performance of four machine learning algorithms was evaluated using four evaluation metrics, MBE, R2, RMSE, and MAPE. Random Forest showed the best performance in the model with data obtained at altitudes below 800 m.a.s.l. The results achieved by the algorithm were: 4.89, 0.82, 107.25, and 41.08%, respectively. In general, the differences in the results of the machine learning algorithms in the different models were not very significant; however, the results provide evidence showing that the estimation of solar radiation from satellite images anywhere on the planet is feasible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quality of feedstock used in base oil processing depends on the source of the crude oil. Moreover, the refinery is fed with various blends of crude oil to meet the demand of the refining products. These circumstances have caused changes of quality of the feedstock for the base oil production. Often the feedstock properties deviate from the original properties measured during the process design phase. To recalculate and remodel using first principal approaches requires significant costs due to the detailed material characterizations and several pilot-plant runs requirements. To perform all material characterization and pilot plant runs every time the refinery receives a different blend of crude oil will simply multiply the costs. Due to economic reasons, only selected lab characterizations are performed, and the base oil processing plant is operated reactively based on the feedback of the lab analysis of the base oil product. However, this reactive method leads to loss in production for several hours because of the residence time as well as time required to perform the lab analysis. Hence in this paper, an alternative method is studied to minimize the production loss by reacting proactively utilizing machine learning algorithms. Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression (DTR), Random Forest Regression (RFR) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models are developed and studied using historical data of the plant to predict the base oil product kinematic viscosity and viscosity index based on the feedstock qualities and the process operating conditions. The XGBoost model shows the most optimal and consistent performance during validation and a 6.5 months plant testing period. Subsequent deployment at our plant facility and product recovery analysis have shown that the prediction model has facilitated in reducing the production recovery period during product transition by 40%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric vehicles (EVs) have gained in popularity over the years. The charging of a high number of EVs harms the distribution system. As a result, increased transformer overloads, power losses, and voltage fluctuations may occur. Thus, management of EVs is required to address these challenges. An EV charging management system based on machine learning (ML) is utilized to route EVs to charging stations to minimize the load variance, power losses, voltage fluctuations, and charging cost whilst considering conventional charging, fast charging, and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies. A number of ML algorithms are contrasted in terms of their performances in optimization since ML has the ability to create accurate future decisions based on historical data, which are Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Deep Neural Networks (DNN). The results verify the reliability of the use of LSTM for the management of EVs to ensure high accuracy. The LSTM model successfully minimizes power losses and voltage fluctuations and achieves peak shaving by flattening the load curve. Furthermore, the charging cost is minimized. Additionally, the efficiency of the management system proved to be robust against the uncertainty of the load data that is used as an input to the ML system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural gas consumption depends on many factors. Some of them, such as weather conditions or historical demand, can be accurately measured. The authors, based on the collected data, performed the modeling of temporary and future natural gas consumption by municipal consumers in one of the medium-sized cities in Poland. For this purpose, the machine learning algorithms, neural networks and two regression algorithms, MLR and Random Forest were used. Several variants of forecasting the demand for natural gas, with different lengths of the forecast horizon are presented and compared in this research. The results obtained using the MLR, Random Forest, and DNN algorithms show that for the tested input data, the best algorithm for predicting the demand for natural gas is RF. The differences in accuracy of prediction between algorithms were not significant. The research shows the differences in the impact of factors that create the demand for natural gas, as well as the accuracy of the prediction for each algorithm used, for each time horizon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, as photovoltaic (PV) power generation has rapidly increased on a global scale, there is a growing need for a highly accurate power generation forecasting model that is easy to implement for a wide range of electric utilities. Against this background, this study proposes a PV power forecasting model based on the generalized additive model (GAM) and compares its forecasting accuracy with four popular machine learning methods: k-nearest neighbor, artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and random forest. The empirical analysis provides an intuitive interpretation of the multidimensional smooth trends estimated by the GAM as tensor product splines and confirms the validity of the proposed modeling structure. The effectiveness of GAM is particularly evident in trend completion for missing data, where it is able to flexibly express the tangled trend structure inherent in time series data, and thus has an advantage not only in interpretability but also in improving forecast accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]