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How might the visibility of an author's name and/or institutional affiliation allow bias to enter the evaluation of economics papers? We ask highly qualified journal editors to review abstracts of solo‐authored papers which differ along the dimensions of gender and institution of the author. We exogenously vary whether editors observe the name and/or institution of the author. We identify positive name visibility effects for female economists and positive institution visibility effects for economists at the top institutions. Our results suggest that male economists at top institutions benefit the most from non‐blind evaluations, followed by female economists (regardless of their institution). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explains recent findings that the paper-bill spread helps forecast consumption spending using an intertemporal optimizing model of consumption and portfolio allocation. The spread is simply the opportunity cost in terms of foregone future consumption of homing government debt rather than higher yielding private debt. Thus, if government debt appears along with consumption in the single period utility function, the spread appears in one of the Euler equations for consumption and asset accumulation. Empirical tests strongly support the model. Finally, including the spread in a rule of thumb model of consumption reduces the importance of non-optimizing behavior. (JEL E21, E43, C22, C32), I. INTRODUCTION One of the more interesting recent findings in empirical macroeconomics is that the paper-bill spread, the difference between the yields on six month prime commercial paper and six [...]

This paper investigates Samuelson's [Samuelson, P. A. 'Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream Economists Supporting Globalization.' Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 2004, 135-46] argument that technical progress of the trade partner may hurt the home country. We illustrate this prospect in a simple Ricardian model for situations with outward knowledge spillovers. Within this framework Samuelson's Act H effects may occur. Based on industry level panel data for 17 OECD countries for the period 1973-2000 we show econometrically that the outflow of domestic knowledge via exports or foreign direct investment (FDI) to the rest of the worm may have a negative impact on industry output in the home country. This is particularly so when exporting to technologically less advanced countries and, more specifically, China. (JEL F10, F11, F14, O30), I. INTRODUCTION In what has become quite a controversial paper, Samuelson (2004) has renewed the discussion that trade does not always and automatically bestow overall gains on each trade partner. [...]

I consider a contest between scholars on the basis of three popular indices of citation. There exist equilibria in which there are more and better‐quality papers in the total citations contest than in the h‐index contest. In some cases, the total citations contest yields the same quality of papers but more papers than the Euclidean contest. As the cost of writing a paper increases,the h‐index is inferior to the total citations index in both the quality and quantity of papers. This result is partly driven by how the number of papers constrains how the h‐index counts citations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does the life cycle of economic papers differ across fields of economic research? By constructing and analyzing a large dataset that combines information on 9,672 articles published in the top five economic journals from 1970 to 2000 with detailed yearly citation data obtained from Google Scholar, we find that published articles do have a life cycle that differs across fields of economic research (which we divide into the categories of applied, applied theory, econometric methods, and theory). Applied and applied theory papers are the clear winners in terms of citation counts. For the first years after their publication, they receive higher numbers of citations per year than papers in other fields of research do. They also reach a higher peak number of citations per year and apparently sustain those peak levels for longer, in addition to being cited over longer periods of time (i.e., they have a longer lifespan). Citation patterns are much less favorable for theoretical papers, which are the object of fewer citations per annum in the first years following publication, have lower peak numbers and a shorter lifespan. Econometric method papers are a special case; the pattern for most of these papers is similar to the pattern for theory papers, but the most successful papers (as measured by the number of citations) on econometric methods are also the most successful papers in the entire discipline of economics. ( JEL A14) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the summer of 1861, the United States embarked on its first widespread use of paper money: the Demand Notes of 1861. Although their convertibility into gold ended at the end of that year, they remained acceptable for tariff payment at a par with gold coin while they were gradually replaced with paper money that did not share this provision, the Greenbacks. We present daily observations of exchange rates between the Notes, Greenbacks, and gold for the extended period during which they simultaneously circulated. These exchange rates substantiate our revisionist notion that the Notes were replaced because the tariff provision prevented them from generating sufficient seigniorage for wartime needs. ( JEL E42, N12, N22) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first-response time (henceforth FRT) of economics journals has increased over the last four decades from 2 months to 3-6 months. The optimal FRT, however, is not zero because a longer FRT deters submissions of mediocre papers to good journals and consequently saves valuable time of referees and editors. Interestingly, the change in the actual FRT is in the same direction as the change in the optimal FRT The latter has increased because of the availability of research on the Internet prior to publication and because papers became longer and more mathematical, increasing the costs of refereeing a paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Every year billions of dollars are spent on research grants to produce new knowledge in universities. However, as grants may also affect other research funding, the effects of financial resources on knowledge production remain unclear. To uncover how financial resources affect knowledge production, we study the effects of research spending itself. Utilizing the legal constraints on university spending from an endowment we develop an instrumental variables approach. Our approach instruments for university research spending with time-series variation in stock prices interacted with cross-sectional variation in initial endowment market values for research universities in the United States. Our analysis reveals that research spending has a substantial positive effect on the number of papers produced, but not their impact. We also demonstrate that research spending effects are quite similar at private and public universities. (JEL H5, I2, O3) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Euclidean length of a citation list is "depth relevant": the metric increases when citations are transferred from less to more cited papers. We introduce "breadth relevance," which favors consistent achievers over one‐hit wonders. The exponent of the CES aggregator then is less than unity rather than greater than unity, as for depth relevance. Using two datasets on citations of economists for the top 50 US and global universities, simply counting citations maximizes the correlation between the citation metrics of researchers and the peer‐reviewed rank of their department. However, citation depth may explain the allocation of researchers across lower‐ranked departments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the evolution of topics in economics and their geographical specialization by analyzing 13,233 papers from seven top journals between 1985 and 2012 and their forward citations. The share of U.S. publications declines from 75% to 64% with a corresponding increase of the European share from 12% to 24%. We use topic modeling and document the evolution of the discipline over 27 years. We estimate, with a quasi‐structural model, the citation lag distribution for 18 different topics and three large geographical areas. The modal citation lag is about 6.7 years in the entire sample and 4.8 years for citations from the top 100 journals. We quantify (1) the home bias effect in citations, (2) how it fades away over time, (3) the long lasting impact of U.S. publications vis‐à‐vis other geographical areas, and (4) the higher speed of diffusion and faster obsolescence in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

British data from the early 1700s through World War I reflect the results of numerous high‐quality natural experiments of government spending. Britain frequently participated in wars, increasing military spending massively. Wartime distortions were relatively limited because the government generally adopted tax smoothing policy and rarely implemented interventions. Government spending multiplier estimates are low or negative and significantly below unity. This paper finds no evidence that the multiplier was higher in the slack state than in the normal state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows that the optimal policy to deal with unemployment features important roles for monitoring of search and job search assistance, with the optimal combined policy also incorporating more generous unemployment insurance (UI). These results are significantly different from the previous literature, which has overwhelmingly focused on UI on its own. I incorporate two empirically relevant phenomena that have often been ignored: private consumption smoothing and fiscal externalities from income taxes. I estimate a job search model using indirect inference on data from the March Current Population Survey, and simulate the model to evaluate a variety of policy reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study how citation patterns differ between journal tiers in economics by analyzing citations patterns of more than 6,000 research articles published in top five, second tier, and top field economics journals. We find that top five journals' articles receive more citations and that the life cycles of those citations are longer. However, their influence (in term of citations) is overestimated: in its first twenty years since publication, the median top five article accumulates 4.25 as many citations when compared to non‐top five median articles. This ratio is strongly associated with the field of economics research and with articles' impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines how economics departments judge research articles and assign credit to authors. It begins with a demonstration that only strictly prorated author credit induces researchers to choose efficient sized teams. Nevertheless, survey evidence reveals that most economics departments only partially prorate authorship credit, implying excessive coauthorship. Indeed, a half-century increase in coauthorship may be better explained by incomplete proration than by any increased specialization among authors. A possible explanation for the reliance on incomplete proration is the self-interest of economists who are more likely to engage coauthorship-full professors. The self-interest of senior faculty may also explain the relatively small role given to citations in senior promotions. A rational response by economists to the under-proration of author credit is to engage in false authorship. Although false authorship is of dubious ethical status, it may have the perverse impact of improving the efficiency of team production. Grossly excessive coauthorship, where little attention is paid to most authors listed on a paper, as found in some other academic disciplines, may be the path down which economics is headed if the reward structure is not altered. ( JEL A14, O30, I23) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a sample of U.S.-based scientific journal articles, I examine the relationship between author surname initials and paper citations, finding that the papers with first authors whose surname initials appear earlier in the alphabet get more citations, and that this effect does not exist for non-first authors. Further analysis shows that the alphabetical order effect is stronger in those fields with longer reference lists, and that such alphabetical bias exists among citations by others and not for self-citations. In addition, estimates also reveal that the alphabetical order effect is stronger when the length of reference lists in citing papers is longer. These findings suggest that the order in reference lists plays an important role in the alphabetical bias. (JEL D0, O3, Z1) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the impact of new stadiums on attendance and revenues of Major League Baseball teams between 1970 and 2019. Recent studies reveal that two‐way fixed effects (TWFE) models may produce biased estimates, proposing an "imputation" method instead. This paper uses the imputation method to generate a counterfactual estimate, based on untreated observations: the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) equals the difference between actual and counterfactual estimates. The analysis shows that there were significant anticipation effects associated with new stadiums, up to three seasons before opening. It suggests previous estimates may significantly understate new stadium revenue gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article highlights the periodical's publishing policies covering a wide variety of papers in both microeconomics and macroeconomics; discusses the instructions for submitting manuscripts to the periodical; and reports the copyright and subscription policies.

Over the past decade, there has been a decline in the fraction of papers in top economics journals written by economists from the highest-ranked economics departments. This paper documents this fact and uses additional data on publications and citations to assess various potential explanations. Several observations are consistent with the hypothesis that the Internet improves the ability of high-profile authors to disseminate their research without going through the traditional peer-review process. ( JEL A14, O30) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the impact of replications published as comments in the American Economic Review between 2010 and 2020. We examine their citations and influence on the original papers' (OPs) subsequent citations. Our results show that comments are barely cited, and they do not affect the OP's citations—even if the comment diagnoses substantive problems. Furthermore, we conduct an opinion survey among replicators and authors and find that there often is no consensus on whether the OP's contribution sustains. We conclude that the economics literature does not self‐correct, and that robustness and replicability are hard to define in economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The state of the art of rendering fiat money valuable is either to impose a boundary condition or to make the boundary condition unimportant through an infinite sequence of markets so as to circumvent backward induction. We show fiat exchange may nevertheless arise in finite economies if agents have incomplete information about their relative position in the trade cycle or when the barter and autarky equilibria of the one-shot trading round support a monetary equilibrium with repeated trades. (JEL E0, E5), Casper G. De Vries (*) I. MODELING FIAT MONEY A model of the transactions role of money stemming from the absence of a double coincidence of wants requires a dynamic [...]

This paper explores the impact of the political hierarchies of cities in China from different perspectives. First, we examine the economic disparities between prefectural cities and municipalities. Furthermore, this paper draws upon a quasi‐ experiment to analyze the impact of upgrading Chongqing to a municipality in 1997 using the synthetic control method. The city‐upgrading policy significantly increased Chongqing's gross domestic product (GDP) in the following 4 years. Finally, we find that the policy increased GDP in treated cities within 1200 km of Chongqing by about 10%–13% relative to the control cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper replicates the study “A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation” by Eggertsson et al. using the Dynare toolkit. Replication is important as it confirms the results of the original article, provides a user‐friendly version using Dynare, and shows how to deal with large‐scale models with occasionally binding constraints. The results show that the original Matlab code was fully replicated, but minor discrepancies were found between the paper's equations and the code. The two models produce similar dynamics but with small differences, particularly at the beginning of the simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a preanalysis plan to analyze the effect of measurement error on economics research using the fact that the Bureau of Economic Analysis both revises its gross domestic product (GDP) data and also publishes a second, theoretically identical estimate of U.S. output that only differs from GDP due to measurement error: gross domestic income (GDI). Using a sample of 23 models published in top economics journals, we find that reestimating models using revised GDP always gives the same qualitative result as the original publication. Estimating models using GDI instead of GDP gives a different qualitative result for three of 23 models (13%). (JEL C80, C82, E01) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eaton, Kortum, and Kramarz (2011) (EKK) discovered empirical patterns from French manufacturing firms that a baseline firm heterogeneity model could not explain. The authors proposed and estimated a model that closely matches the patterns observed in French data. This paper successfully replicates their findings using author‐provided data, re‐implementing their algorithms in Python and leveraging graphics processing unit computing to significantly boost computational speed. Applying the model to Chinese manufacturing data, despite differences in context, showed that the model explains most observed patterns well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Politically motivated boycotts aim to harm the sales of goods associated with foreign rivals, but can also harm the domestic economy if the goods are domestically produced. This paper examines the unintended effects of the 2012 Chinese boycott of Japanese cars on China's automobile supply chain. By comparing changes in employment between auto parts and non‐parts industries located at various distances from Japanese joint ventures (JV), I find that auto parts manufacturers near the Japanese JVs experienced a 10%–17% reduction in employment after the boycott. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated reasoning can serve to help resolve emotional discomfort, which suggests emotion as a likely moderator of such reasoning. This paper addresses a gap in the literature by examining emotion and confirmation bias in the political domain. Results from two preregistered studies, which involved over 900 unique participants, document a confirmation bias across distinct dimensions of belief and preference formation. Also, ideologically dissonant information significantly worsens self‐reported emotion. With some exceptions, the evidence generally supports the hypothesis that negative emotion moderates the strength of the bias, which highlights the importance of emotion response in understanding and potentially counteracting confirmation bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the accumulation and distribution of retirement wealth in a dynastic model with earnings risks, longevity uncertainties, and borrowing constraints. It resolves the wealth indeterminacy problem across generations in dynastic families by introducing a transaction cost for intergenerational transfers. It captures the pattern of inter vivos transfers, the relationship between wealth and earnings, and wealth inequality in the US data. Social security lowers precautionary savings by redistributing income from families with high earnings or short‐lived parents to others, thus reducing investment, the growth rate in income per capita, inequality in retirees' consumption, and the wealth‐earnings correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When social pressure leads to favoritism, policies might aim to reduce the bias by affecting its source. This paper shows that multiple sources may be present and telling them apart is important. We build a novel and granular dataset on European football games and revisit the view that supporting crowds make referees help the host team. We find this bias to remain unchanged even in stadiums closed due to Covid‐19. Instead, influential host organizations emerge as the source of social pressure. This has an adverse effect on maintaining the ranking of influential teams and hindering the progress of smaller teams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefit disbursement on intramonthly household level purchases made from a supermarket retailer. We find that spending, the likelihood of shopping, the bulk expenditure share and the national brand expenditure share increase by $2, 1.5, 2, and 0.6% points, respectively, on the day that SNAP benefits are disbursed. We also compare and contrast estimates that use variation in the indicator for benefit receipt to estimates that utilize variation in the probability of SNAP benefit receipt. We find substantial differences between the two approaches for the outcome of spending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical researchers often consider a single determinant of labor productivity: speed. This paper asks whether they are neglecting spillovers on output quality. Using high‐frequency data on the speed and quality of strawberry harvesters' work, we offer novel evidence that two distinct workplace policies associated with increases in worker speed lead to similar decreases in the quality of their work. We find that both peer speed and wage changes boost worker speed and lower output quality; 10 percent increases in speed are associated with reductions in quality on the order of 1.5–1.7 percent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rottenberg argued that the reassignment of negotiating rights from owners to players, that would accompany free agency in professional sports, would have little impact on locational or market outcomes. Empirical investigations into such reassignment have produced mixed results. The present paper examines the impact such reassignment had on professional sports athletes' career length. By examining the univariate time series and panel data behavior of Major League Baseball players' average tenure and retention rates, we find that the increased negotiating power associated with the advent of free agency had the impact of shortening average player career length. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population aging is widely assumed to have detrimental effects on economic development, especially through an increased social security burden. This paper starts with the potential problems of the pension system in China. We investigate how local governments respond to population aging and the impact of population aging on the firm pension contributions using administrative data from the period 2008–2015. We present three findings. First, population aging increases the pension contributions of firms. Second, fiscal pressure is the channel through which population aging affects pension enforcement. Last, the pension administration system could affect the net impact of population aging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of experience in determining the deterrent effect of criminal punishment. Economic models of crime typically assume potential offenders know the probability of apprehension. Thus, neither the individual's personal experience of being caught and punished nor the observation of someone else's punishment experience affects that individual's future behavior. This paper incorporates a role for experience in determining criminal activity, distinguishing between (1) how individuals form perceptions of the probability of punishment, including how those perceptions are influenced by what they experience or observe, and (2) how those perceptions, once formed, influence their decisions about criminal activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the government expenditure multiplier and the influence of agents' expectations and consumption choices thereupon in a pre‐existing estimated macroeconomic agent‐based model. If the simple consumption heuristic of the baseline model is replaced by inter‐temporal optimization subject to a budget constraint based on agents' estimations of future income, the multiplier becomes significantly smaller. When agents' beliefs about the effects of expenditure shocks are explicitly introduced, they can strongly increase or decrease the multiplier. If agents are allowed learn about the effects of government expenditure on their income from repeated shocks, they are able to correctly predict these effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the literature evaluating the performance of local governments by analyzing the effect of local public expenditures on sports facilities on sports participation in Germany. To this end, we use a new data base containing public expenditures at the municipality level and link this information with individual level data. We form locally weighted averages of expenditures based on geographic distances and analyze how effects of sports facility expenditures change with different expenditures levels ("dose‐response relationship"). We find no effect of sports facility expenditures on individual sports participation. These findings are robust across age groups and municipality sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though antitrust authorities have historically focused on prices in merger analyses, there is now growing interest in the impact of mergers on non‐price outcomes. In this paper, we examine the effect of horizontal mergers on product variety in the U.S. beer industry. Our difference‐in‐differences analyses provide evidence that acquired firms increase variety available to consumers by expanding into new markets, while reducing the variety of products sold in their existing markets. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that in aggregate, these acquisitions have a net positive effect on product variety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the differential effect of trade agreements on income per capita of subnational regions with international borders. We construct an extensive panel dataset covering 1350 regions in 86 countries worldwide between 1950 and 2017. Our results show that trade agreements are positively associated with income per capita of regions sharing contiguous borders with trading partners, relative to regions sharing borders with countries with whom no trade agreements exist. For border regions, the positive relationship of trade agreements and regional income roughly compensates potential income disadvantages of having international borders. These insights help in explaining and mitigating regional inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Who knows the underlying productivity distribution function? Interestingly, this ambiguous function is often referenced to make decisions including job creations, wage determinations, contract formulations, etc. To investigate how ambiguity shapes labor markets, we integrate ambiguity preferences into the Diamond‐Mortensen‐Pissarides (DMP) model. We find that ambiguity‐averse job‐ and talent‐hunters are conservative. Our quantitative analysis indicates that but for the ambiguity, the American unemployment rate would have increased in the postwar era. This paper generalizes the DMP model, enhances our understanding of the labor market, and calls for policies concerning labor market information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding international transmission mechanism that generates the world business cycle is of immense interest. In this paper, we compile a rich global dataset and utilize a trade‐linked structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a relatively realistic identification scheme to construct a worldwide dynamic interdependency system. Empirical results indicate that the trade‐linked SVAR system can largely capture the common dynamic properties of national business cycle fluctuations, providing a meaningful transmission foundation to the world business cycle derived from dynamic factor models. Based on the worldwide trade‐linked SVAR system, we further shed light on three crucial topics in international economics. The findings and methods in this paper help to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of recent trade dispute between world major economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009, economists are reconsidering the appropriate role of monetary policy towards equity bubbles. This paper contributes to these deliberations by estimating the response of the stock market to monetary policy tightening by using a Bayesian time‐varying VAR model. By introducing the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, we propose a method that estimates its fundamental and bubble components. We find that asset prices will initially fall and eventually rise again but without the risk of feeding the bubble. Counterfactual policy experiments provide additional evidence that monetary policy can lean against equity and housing prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the amenity value of legalized marijuana by analyzing the impact of marijuana legalization on migration to Colorado. Colorado is the pioneering state in this area having legalized medical marijuana in 2000 and recreational marijuana in 2012. We test whether potential migrants to Colorado view legalized marijuana as a positive or negative local amenity. We use the synthetic control methodology to examine in‐ and out‐migration to/from Colorado versus migration to/from counterfactual versions of Colorado that have not legalized marijuana. We find strong evidence that potential migrants view legalized marijuana as a positive amenity with in‐migration significantly higher in Colorado compared with synthetic‐Colorado after the writing of the Ogden memo in 2009 that effectively allowed state laws already in place to be activated, and additionally after marijuana was legalized in 2013 for recreational use. When we employ permutation methods to assess the statistical likelihood of our results given our sample, we find that Colorado is a clear and significant outlier. We find no evidence for changes in out‐migration from Colorado suggesting that marijuana legalization did not change the equilibrium for individuals already living in the state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The resurgence of inflation has been accompanied by a reversal of prospects of growth, with a prominent role assigned to the fall of households' purchasing power. Yet this real income effect of inflation surprises, independent of restrictive monetary policy, is not present in the standard New Keynesian models for monetary policy. The reason lies in the formulation of the consumption‐based "IS equation". The paper shows how the income effect can be introduced by reformulating the consumption function, with the consequence that it exerts an autonomus stabilization effect on inflation. The main monetary policy implications are examined by means of simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of religious fasting on truth‐telling using a laboratory experiment in Egypt. While fasting‐induced religiosity may promote truth‐telling, the physiological and psychological changes during fasting, due to alimentary abstention and self‐control exertion, may reduce honesty, especially when fasting is augmented with effort. We examine this question by tracing individual truth‐telling decisions, in the absence and presence of additional effort, both before and during Ramadan. We find that neither effort nor fasting alone affects honesty, but exerting effort while fasting reduces honesty. We provide suggestive evidence on the mechanisms potentially driving this negative effect on honesty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]