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Electrodynamic coupling between the ionospheric E and F regions is widely recognized as the underlying mechanism for generating medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) during nighttime at midlatitudes. Recently, the double-thin-shell approach has proven to be a useful tool for studying the E–F coupling. By using total electron content (TEC) measurements, this approach enables the simultaneous reconstruction of electron density perturbations in both the E and F regions with broad and continuous coverage. However, the current reconstruction performance is limited when using only GPS-TEC measurements from GEONET, a dense network of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers over Japan. The expansion of available data sources and the integration of multi-GNSS observation data are considered important to enhance the double-thin-shell model. Fortunately, SoftBank Corp., a Japanese telecommunications provider, has recently developed a dense independent GNSS observation network to improve positioning services. In this paper, we analyze the potential of the improved double-thin-shell approach and emphasize the importance of incorporating multi-GNSS observation data from both GEONET and SoftBank networks. The solvability analysis, simulation, and observation results collectively indicate a substantial improvement in the spatiotemporal resolution. Specifically, the longitudinal and latitudinal resolution is improved from 0.15° to 0.1° in the E region, and from 0.5° to 0.3° in the F region. The temporal resolution is also improved from 2 to 1 min. In addition, significant improvements have been achieved in the reconstruction performance, particularly for the E region under complex background conditions. Based on these assessments, we conclude that the incorporation of GEONET and SoftBank GNSS observation data holds significant potential for improving the double-thin-shell model and advancing our understanding of MSTIDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tephra rings that surround maar craters are typically inferred from field observations to have been emplaced rapidly over a time period of days to years and thus monogenetic, which is, however, rarely assessed quantitatively. This paper describes a polycyclic origin of the Mamiyadake tephra ring (Japan), comparing the paleomagnetic directions obtained from throughout the stratigraphy. The new data show that the paleomagnetic directions change systematically with stratigraphic height through the sections, which is interpreted to record paleosecular variation (PSV) of the geomagnetic field during formation of the tephra ring. The paleomagnetic results, together with using an average rate of PSV in Japan, indicate that the Mamiyadake tephra ring was constructed episodically with five major eruptive episodes, separated by centuries or longer, over a period of at least 1000 years. The findings demonstrate that detailed paleomagnetic characterization can uncover the temporal evolution of tephra rings, providing a useful criterion for identifying time breaks, even where field evidence is lacking, and a minimum estimate of the time interval for their emplacement. The approach used here may be applicable to volcanoes of any type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shikoku island, southwestern Japan lies in the western Nankai Trough and showcases along-strike segmentation of slow earthquake behavior. Whether the spatial variation of tremor behavior reflects the regional differences in structure/source properties and how much such differences can be recognized by the seismic signals themselves are two questions addressed in this paper. Taking advantage of advanced methods in recognizing and classifying signals using machine learning approaches, we attempt to answer them by conducting signal classification experiments in Shikoku. Based on the tremor catalog from 1 June 2014 to 31 March 2015, the tremors recorded in four different areas were treated as different classes and segmented into 60-s-long signals. The number of tremors in four different areas (A to D, from west to east) reached 15,000, 31,000, 10,000, and 16,000, respectively. To efficiently distinguish between tremors from different areas, we applied a k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) classifier with Fisher's class separability criteria to select the optimal feature subset. The resulting classification performance reached more than 90% at all 12 stations. We further designed a triangle test to select the features that can better represent the differences in source properties between areas. We found that the most efficient features were associated with (1) the number of peaks in the temporal evolution of discrete Fourier transforms and (2) the energy distribution in the autocorrelation function (ACF). To match the difference in behavior revealed by the ACF, the size of the tremor zone, which mainly controls how long the seismic energy lasts in a tremor episode, was determined to be largest in Area B and smallest in Area C. The heterogeneity of the asperities in a tremor zone, which may control how spiky the tremor signals developed over time, was determined to be strong in Areas B and C. Together with previously documented variations in slow earthquake behavior in the same area, we finally propose a conceptual model that provides a better understanding of the regional differences in the tremor source properties in Shikoku, Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the infrasonic observation of a fumarolic field, distinguishing multiple fumarolic sources is challenging. The array technique effectively estimates the source locations and identifies the target signal from other signals and noise. We conducted an experiment at Kirishima Iwo-Yama, Japan, where two active fumarolic areas were separated by ~ 450 m. A three-element array with an aperture of ~ 20 m was installed between the two fumarolic areas. In addition, a single microphone was installed near one of the fumaroles. The array combined with the waveform correlation analysis estimated the most prominent source but failed to estimate the other weak source. A joint analysis of the array and the single microphone effectively resolved the two sources. It was also confirmed that newly developed power-saving MEMS microphones were useful for observing the fumaroles. This paper presents the instrumentation and analytical method that would be beneficial for monitoring volcanoes that have multiple hydrothermally active vents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although solar activity may significantly impact the global environment and socioeconomic systems, the mechanisms for solar eruptions and the subsequent processes have not yet been fully understood. Thus, modern society supported by advanced information systems is at risk from severe space weather disturbances. Project for solar–terrestrial environment prediction (PSTEP) was launched to improve this situation through synergy between basic science research and operational forecast. The PSTEP is a nationwide research collaboration in Japan and was conducted from April 2015 to March 2020, supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan. By this project, we sought to answer the fundamental questions concerning the solar–terrestrial environment and aimed to build a next-generation space weather forecast system to prepare for severe space weather disasters. The PSTEP consists of four research groups and proposal-based research units. It has made a significant progress in space weather research and operational forecasts, publishing over 500 refereed journal papers and organizing four international symposiums, various workshops and seminars, and summer school for graduate students at Rikubetsu in 2017. This paper is a summary report of the PSTEP and describes the major research achievements it produced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although solar activity may significantly impact the global environment and socioeconomic systems, the mechanisms for solar eruptions and the subsequent processes have not yet been fully understood. Thus, modern society supported by advanced information systems is at risk from severe space weather disturbances. Project for solar–terrestrial environment prediction (PSTEP) was launched to improve this situation through synergy between basic science research and operational forecast. The PSTEP is a nationwide research collaboration in Japan and was conducted from April 2015 to March 2020, supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan. By this project, we sought to answer the fundamental questions concerning the solar–terrestrial environment and aimed to build a next-generation space weather forecast system to prepare for severe space weather disasters. The PSTEP consists of four research groups and proposal-based research units. It has made a significant progress in space weather research and operational forecasts, publishing over 500 refereed journal papers and organizing four international symposiums, various workshops and seminars, and summer school for graduate students at Rikubetsu in 2017. This paper is a summary report of the PSTEP and describes the major research achievements it produced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations and theoretical analysis on the night-time mid-latitude ionospheric irregularities support the postulation of frequently coupled E and F regions. In this paper, we attempt at asserting this notion while using total electron content (TEC) measurements. The TECs are from a dense GNSS receiver network over Japan with more than 1200 stations and a mean distance of ~ 25 km between receivers; thus, ideal for analyzing small-scale perturbations in ionospheric electron density. We take an ansatz that mid-latitude night-time plasma instabilities concentrate at E and F layers. Then the integrated three-dimensional density perturbations are parameterized with a double-thin-shell model. At each shell, perturbation components are assumed identical at any point within a given grid block. Two days with events of night-time medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs), but with different amplitudes, were investigated. Results show that the newly developed technique can infer several horizontal characteristics on E–F coupled instabilities; the coexistence of northwest–southeast (NW–SE) aligned irregular structures in E and F regions is evident. Both E- and F-region irregularities share similar propagation parameters, a shred of clear evidence of strong coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the characteristic features of the gravity recordings produced by the superconducting gravimeter CT #036 at Ishigakijima, Japan, is that it indicates gravity increase when a typhoon (hurricane) approaches the island. Since we are trying to detect small gravity signals associated with the long-term slow slip events in this region, it is very important in the interpretation of the observed data whether such gravity changes are of natural or instrumental origin. In this paper, we investigate whether or not nonlinearity in the sensor of the superconducting gravimeter is responsible for this phenomenon. Here we take the same theoretical approach as taken by our previous study which investigated the effect of coupling between horizontal and vertical components of the gravity sensor in order to understand the noise caused by the movements of a nearby VLBI antenna. From theoretical and experimental approaches, we prove that the gravity increase observed by CT #036 at the times of high background noise level cannot be explained by instrumental effects, such as the nonlinearity in the vertical component or the coupling between horizontal and vertical components of the gravity sensor. This implies that the observed gravity increases are real gravity signals of natural origin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates and assesses the capability of the advanced three-dimensional (3-D) ionosphere tomography technique, during severe conditions. The study area is northeast Asia and quasi-Japan-centred. Reconstructions are based on total electron content data from a dense ground-based global navigation satellite system receiver network and parameters from operational ionosondes. We used observations from ionosondes, Swarm satellites and radio occultation (RO) to assess the 3-D picture. Specifically, we focus on St. Patrick's day geomagnetic storm (17–19 March 2015), the most intense in solar cycle 24. During this event, the energy ingested into the ionosphere resulted in Dst and Kp and reaching values ~ − 223 nT and 8, respectively, and the region of interest, the East Asian sector, was characterized by a ~ 60% reduction in electron densities. Results show that the reconstructed densities follow the physical dynamics previously discussed in earlier publications about storm events. Moreover, even when ionosonde data were not available, the technique could still provide a consistent picture of the ionosphere vertical structure. Furthermore, analyses show that there is a profound agreement between the RO profiles/in-situ densities and the reconstructions. Therefore, the technique is a potential candidate for applications that are sensitive to ionospheric corrections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We surveyed the relationship between the scale of space weather events and their occurrence rate in Japan, and we discussed the social impact of these phenomena during the Project for Solar–Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP) in 2015–2019. The information was compiled for domestic users of space weather forecasts for appropriate preparedness against space weather disasters. This paper gives a comprehensive summary of the survey, focusing on the fields of electricity, satellite operations, communication and broadcasting, satellite positioning usage, aviation, human space activity, and daily life on the Earth's surface, using the cutting-edge knowledge of space weather. Quantitative estimations of the economic impact of space weather events on electricity supply and aviation are also given. Some topics requiring future research, which were identified during the survey are also described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Seafloor Observation Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis along the Japan Trench (S-net) is presently the world's largest network of ocean bottom pressure sensors for real-time tsunami monitoring. This paper analyzes the efficacy of such a vast system in tsunami forecasting through exhaustive synthetic experiments. We consider 1500 hypothetical tsunami scenarios from megathrust earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from Mw 7.7–9.1. We employ a stochastic slip model to emulate heterogeneous slip patterns on specified 240 subfaults over the plate interface of the Japan Trench subduction zone and its vicinity. Subsequently, the associated tsunamis in terms of maximum coastal tsunami heights are evaluated along the 50-m isobath by means of a Green's function summation. To produce tsunami forecasts, we utilize a tsunami inversion from virtually observed waveforms at the S-net stations. Remarkably, forecasts accuracy of approximately 99% can be achieved using tsunami data within an interval of 3 to 5 min after the earthquake (2-min length), owing to the exceedingly dense observation points. Additionally, we apply an optimization technique to determine the optimal combination of stations with respect to earthquake magnitudes. The results show that the minimum requisite number of stations to maintain the accuracy attained by the existing network configuration decreases from 130 to 90 when the earthquake size increases from Mw 7.7 to 9.1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Seafloor Observation Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis along the Japan Trench (S-net) is presently the world's largest network of ocean bottom pressure sensors for real-time tsunami monitoring. This paper analyzes the efficacy of such a vast system in tsunami forecasting through exhaustive synthetic experiments. We consider 1500 hypothetical tsunami scenarios from megathrust earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from Mw 7.7–9.1. We employ a stochastic slip model to emulate heterogeneous slip patterns on specified 240 subfaults over the plate interface of the Japan Trench subduction zone and its vicinity. Subsequently, the associated tsunamis in terms of maximum coastal tsunami heights are evaluated along the 50-m isobath by means of a Green's function summation. To produce tsunami forecasts, we utilize a tsunami inversion from virtually observed waveforms at the S-net stations. Remarkably, forecasts accuracy of approximately 99% can be achieved using tsunami data within an interval of 3 to 5 min after the earthquake (2-min length), owing to the exceedingly dense observation points. Additionally, we apply an optimization technique to determine the optimal combination of stations with respect to earthquake magnitudes. The results show that the minimum requisite number of stations to maintain the accuracy attained by the existing network configuration decreases from 130 to 90 when the earthquake size increases from Mw 7.7 to 9.1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new technique, namely Phase bias-based Small Grid Model (PSGM), to derive absolute ionospheric vertical total electron content (VTEC) with observations of Global Navigation Satellite System Earth Observation Network of Japan (GEONET). The proposed technique deals with the phase observations alone without handling the pseudoranges, which reduces the noise in VTEC estimation. A new parameter, the arc bias (Barc), is introduced to combine the phase ambiguities and differential phase biases. To solve Barc, equations are constructed under the assumption that the VTEC is identical in the same 0.1° × 0.1° grid. The performance of PSGM is evaluated with the observations in solar maximum year 2014. The root mean square error (RMSE) of PSGM is 0.40 TECU in average, the maximum RMSE is 0.73 TECU and the minimum RMSE is 0.26 TECU. The fitting accuracy of the VTEC results is improved compared with most of the existing methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent geodetic measurements have detected recurrent slow slip events (SSEs) in many subduction zones. Numerical simulations suggest that the recurrence intervals and magnitudes of such SSEs decrease in the later stage of the interseismic period. Therefore, activities of SSEs and their temporal variations in recurrence intervals and magnitudes provide important clues for evaluating future large earthquakes. However, our knowledge of recurrent SSEs before the establishment of dense observation networks is limited. Here, we report a possible SSE in 1973 beneath the Kii peninsula along the Nankai subduction zone, southwest Japan, where magnitude 8 class earthquakes such as the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai earthquakes repeatedly occur. The possible SSE was detected by a horizontal pendulum tiltmeter installed in 1947 at the Kishu observatory. We recovered and converted the original tilt records from 1969 to 1974 drawn on bromide (light sensitive) papers to digital tilt records. In late-November 1973, there was a slow transient signal down to the northeast of about 1.4 μrad, lasting about 1–3 days. Assuming this crustal deformation was due to an SSE, we searched for a possible fault model by adopting the already-known SSE models occurring from 1996 to 2012 as template models. Among the 42 template fault models, five models were able to qualitatively explain the direction of the observed tilt change. The centroids of these fault models were located about 30–60 km to the west of the observatory. In the source region, two magnitude 5 class earthquakes occurred before the initiation of the transient signal, and thus may be related to the occurrence of the possible SSE. In contrast, the magnitude of the calculated tilt change was about 1–2 order smaller than that of the observed tilt change. This discrepancy could be partly explained by a slip amount larger than that in the template models, which suggests that the possible SSE in 1973 was larger than those detected by recent observations. Further investigation of historical data on crustal deformation will reveal more about the temporal change in the recurrence intervals and magnitudes of SSEs during earthquake cycles of large earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On October 21, 2016, an earthquake with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) magnitude 6.6 hit the central part of Tottori Prefecture, Japan. This paper demonstrates two notable effects of the surface geology on strong ground motions due to the earthquake. One is a predominant period issue observed over a large area. A seismic intensity of 6 lower on the JMA scale was registered at three sites in the disaster area. However, the peak ground acceleration ranged from 0.3 to 1.4 G at the three sites because of the varying peak periods of observed strong ground motions. The spectral properties of the observations also reflect the damage around the sites. Three-component microtremors were observed in the area; the predominant ground period distributions based on horizontal to vertical spectral ratios were provided by the authors. The peak periods of the strong motion records agree well with predominant periods estimated from microtremor observations at a rather hard site; however, the predominant periods of the microtremors are slightly shorter than those of the main shock at the other two soft sites. We checked the nonlinear effect at the sites by comparing the site responses to small events and the main shock. The peak periods of the main shock were longer than those of the weak motions at the sites. This phenomenon indicates a nonlinear site effect due to large ground motions caused by the main shock. A horizontal component of the accelerogram showed rather pulsating swings that indicate cyclic mobility behavior, especially at a site close to a pond shore; ground subsidence of ~20 cm was observed around the site. The peak periods of weak motions agree well with those of the microtremor observations. This implies an important issue that the predominant periods estimated by microtremors are not sufficient to estimate the effect of surface geology for disaster mitigation. We have to estimate the predominant periods under large ground motions considering the nonlinear site response of soft sediment sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infrasonic stations are sparse at many volcanoes, especially those on remote islands and those with less frequent eruptions. When only a single infrasound station is available, the seismic–infrasonic cross-correlation method has been used to extract infrasound from wind noise. However, it does not work with intense seismicity and sometimes mistakes ground-to-atmosphere signals as infrasound. This paper proposes a complementary method to identify the seismic component and the infrasonic component using a single microphone and a seismometer. We applied the method to estimate the surface activity on Ioto Island. We focused on volcanic tremors during the phreatic eruption on April 11, 2013, and during an unconfirmed event on September 12, 2018. We used the spectral amplitude ratios of the vertical ground motion to the pressure oscillation and compared those for the tremors with those for known signals generated by volcano-tectonic earthquakes and airplanes flying over the station. We were able to identify the infrasound component in the part of the seismic tremor with the 2013 eruption. On the other hand, the tremor with the unconfirmed 2018 event was accompanied by no apparent infrasound. We interpreted the results that the infrasound with the 2013 event was excited by the vent opening or the ejection of ballistic rocks, and the 2018 event was not an explosive eruption either on the ground or in the shallow water. If there was any gas (and ash) emission, it might have occurred gently undersea. As the method uses the relative values of on-site records instead of the absolute values, it is available even if the instrument sensitivity and the station site effects are poorly calibrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic that started at the end of 2019 forced populations around the world to reduce social and economic activities; it is believed that this can prevent the spread of the disease. In this paper, we report an analysis of the seismic noise during such an induced social activity reduction in the Tokyo metropolitan area, Japan. Using seismic data obtained from 18 stations in the Metropolitan Seismic Observation Network (MeSO-net), a two-step seismic noise reduction was observed during the timeline of COVID-19 in Tokyo. The first noise reduction occurred at the beginning of March 2020 in the frequency band of 20–40 Hz. This corresponded with the request by the Prime Minister of Japan for a nationwide shutdown of schools. Although social activity was not reduced significantly at this juncture, local reduction of seismic wave excitation in the high-frequency band, 20–40 Hz, was recorded at some MeSO-net stations located in school properties. The second reduction of seismic noise occurred at the end of March to the beginning of April 2020 in a wider frequency band including lower frequency bands of 1–20 Hz. This timing corresponds to when the Governors of the Tokyo metropolitan area requested citizens to stay home and when the state of emergency was declared for the Tokyo metropolitan area by the government, respectively. Since then, the estimated population at train stations abruptly dropped, which suggests that social activity was severely reduced. Such large-scale changes in social activity affect the seismic noise level in low-frequency bands. The seismic noise level started to increase from the middle of May correlating with increase in population at the train stations. This suggests that social activity restarted even before the state of emergency was lifted at the end of May. The two-step seismic noise reduction observed in this study has not been reported in other cities around the world. Unexpected reduction of social activity due to COVID-19 provided a rare opportunity to investigate the characteristics of seismic noise caused by human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluated water distributions in deformed quartz in schists along the Asemi River, Central Shikoku, in the Sanbagawa Metamorphic Belt, Japan, using infrared spectroscopic (IR) mapping. The water trapped in quartz as molecular H2O showed a broad IR absorption band at 2800–3750 cm−1. A necessary step before assessing the quartz water content was to evaluate and compare six previously proposed IR calibrations in terms of the molar absorption coefficients of H2O (L/mol H2O cm2). The coefficients vary from 24,100 to 89,000 L/mol H2O cm2, and the values of the coefficients show a rough increase with increasing component of structural –OH in the IR spectra. We used Paterson's calibration, which does not require input regarding the mineral species, but which was modified in his paper for measurements of molecular H2O in quartz. The absorption coefficient is 38,000 L/mol H2O cm2. IR mapping was performed on Sanbagawa metamorphic rocks with increasing grades of metamorphism, where the mean grain size of quartz increases from ~ 40 to ~ 120 µm. The absorption bands that are only from the quartz can be distinguished on the basis of microstructural observations and the corresponding mapping results. The IR spectra of quartz commonly show dominant molecular H2O bands at 2800–3750 cm−1 with no additional bands associated with crystalline –OH when only quartz is measured. The water contents of quartz in all our samples were 40–310 ppm, and these values are about one-third of previously reported values measured using point analyses with the unified Paterson's calibration. This difference seems to reflect the incorporation of phyllosilicates in previous measurements that showed a broad band around 3600 cm−1. The lowest and highest water contents in our quartz samples are associated with intragranular water and grain boundary water, respectively. We estimated the grain boundary widths to be at most ~ 10 nm on the basis of the water contents at grain boundaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) unified seismic catalog has been widely used for research and disaster prevention purposes for more than 20 years. Since the introduction in April 2016 of an improved method of automatic hypocenter determinations (PF method), the number of detected earthquakes has almost doubled due to a decrease in the completeness magnitude around the Tohoku region, where seismicity has been very active in the aftermath of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Automatically processed hypocenters of small events, accepted without manual modification, now make up approximately 70% of new events in the JMA unified catalog. In this paper, we show that the introduction of automated processing did not systematically bias the quality of the JMA unified catalog. Approximately 90% of automatically processed hypocenters were less than 1 km from their manually reviewed locations in inland and shallow areas. We also considered the use of automated event characterization in real-time monitoring of earthquake sequences using the example of the April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, when the PF method could have supplied the catalog with about 70,000 events in real time over the course of 2 months. We show that the PF method is capable of monitoring the migration or expansion of the hypocentral distribution and can support statistical analyses such as variations of the b-value distribution. Further improvements in automatic hypocenter determination will contribute to a better understanding of seismicity as well as rapid risk assessment, especially in cases of swarms and aftershocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]