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A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02948-3 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities in the USA and around the world have begun to take an active role in responding to climate change. A central requirement for effective urban climate strategies is the capacity to understand and measure how the climate is changing, the physical, environmental, and social impacts of the changes, and whether adaptation and resiliency policies and programs put in place in response are working. The objective of this paper is to review and assess how urban climate change and resiliency efforts can be measured and to define what might serve as meaningful indicator and monitoring protocols. The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) is used as a case study along with a reviews of the emerging literature of urban climate change indicators to analyze the requirements and processes needed for a successful urban climate resiliency indicator and monitoring (I and M) system. In the paper, the basic requirements of a proposed Urban Climate Resilience Indicators and Monitoring System are presented. A specific illustration of an I and M system for tracking the urban heat island highlights challenges as well as potential solutions embedded within such systems. Discussions how these protocols can be translated to other locales and settings, as well as the relationship to the US National Climate Assessment indicator process, are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) is a collaborative effort to provide professionals, decision makers, and the public with information about how climate change affects state and local interests throughout Indiana, USA. This assessment effort has three interrelated goals: (1) analyze and document the best available climate change impacts research, (2) develop and maintain a network of stakeholders and experts, and (3) start a dialog about climate change throughout Indiana. The project adopted a process that prioritized stakeholder engagement, re-envisioned traditional dissemination approaches, and that had limited state government involvement, setting the IN CCIA apart from most other state climate assessments (SCAs) in the USA. This overview describes the motivations, principles, and processes that guided the IN CCIA development, explores how Indiana's approach compares with those of other SCAs, and briefly summarizes the papers presented in this special issue. As interest in SCAs grows in non-coastal and politically conservative locations, the IN CCIA serves as one example of how a bottom-up assessment with limited funding can deliver credible climate science to diverse stakeholder groups in the absence of state-level mandates or direction and attract public attention over an extended period of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the options that developing countries have in ensuring food security in an environment where key climate parameters are changing rapidly. Based on a case study of Lesotho, the paper utilizes the Global Climate Model ensemble to determine future precipitation and temperature projections using data from Climate Explorer. The results indicate that in Lesotho, maximum temperature is likely to continue to increase. Coupled with a significant increase in precipitation under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (p = 0.0008) and RCP 8.5 (p = 0.0001) scenarios and a significant increase of evaporation under the two scenarios for RCP 4.5 (p = 0.0008) and RCP 8.5 (p = 0.0103), the country's preparedness for hazards arising from climate change is rendered uncertain. Despite this reality, we suggest that uncertainty could be reduced by reinforcing existing innovative measures that could improve the productive capacity of subsistence farmers, so that they meet their own food requirements, while preventing further environmental deterioration. While some measures will be based on the intensification of government-led social support mechanisms, others will depend on the support rendered to "tried and tested" traditional practices such as machobane and fato-fato, which have a long tradition in the country. However, on their own, these measures are insufficient to cope with rapidly changing climatic conditions, unless they are coupled with national research development initiatives, improved early warning systems, and enhancement of environmental monitoring capabilities, the implementation of which requires careful land use planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation needs in high mountain communities are increasingly well documented, yet most efforts to address these needs continue to befall mountain people who have contributed little to the problem of climate change. This situation represents a contravention of accepted norms of climate justice and calls attention to the need for better understanding of prospects for externally resourced adaptation initiatives in high mountain areas. In response, this paper examines the architecture of formal adaptation support mechanisms organized through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and how such mechanisms might help to meet adaptation needs in high mountain communities. It outlines key global adaptation initiatives organized through the UNFCCC, clarifies idealized linkages between these global adaptation initiatives and meeting local adaptation needs, and evaluates actual progress in connecting such support with discrete adaptation needs in the upper Manaslu region of Nepal. The paper then critically examines observed shortcomings in matching adaptation support organized through the UNFCCC with local adaptation needs, including complications stemming from the bureaucratic nature of formal adaptation support mechanisms, the intervening role of the state in delivering aid, and the ways in which these complexities intersect with the specific socio-cultural contexts of mountain communities. It concludes by highlighting several prospects for increasing the quantity and quality of adaptation support to mountain communities. These opportunities are considered alongside several salient concerns about formal adaptation support mechanisms in an effort to provide a well-rounded assessment of the prospects for planned adaptations in high mountain communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is part of the Special Issue on "Everyday Climate Cultures: Understanding the cultural politics of climate change" edited by Goodman, Doyle and Farrell As we write this editorial introduction, the UK is slowly emerging from its period of self-imposed lockdown restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and facing the virus's lasting impacts upon society at every scale imaginable. Taking a longitudinal approach to the study of climate imagery, Saffron O'Neill (2020) explores how UK and US newspapers visually depict climate change during the period 2001-2009, an important decade for the expansion and consolidation of climate change science, activism and engagement. Through online surveys and interviews, US climate scholars were asked about their everyday climate advocacy work beyond their professional commitments, defined here by evidence-based climate science rather than particular policy outcomes. [Extracted from the article]

Many corporations are now in the business of bringing climate change 'home' in the everyday products that those, in much of the Minority world, can purchase and use, providing opportunities for consumers to literally and figuratively 'buy in' to climate mitigation. Yet, what are the implications of this form of highly commoditised, corporate-led, consumer-focused climate branding? In the spaces and practices of the everyday, how and in what ways are corporations framing and socialising responses to climate change and global environmental and social issues? This paper explores these 'questions through a multimodal discourse analysis of Unilever's 'Sustainable Living Plan' (2010) and its 'Project Sunlight' campaign (2010–2016). Situating Unilever's sustainability agenda as indicative of the contemporary climate politics of the corporate sector, that also represents a pivotal moment in the cultural politics of climate change, we critically interrogate Unilever's mobilisation of the affective and emotional registers of everyday life and human relations in its model of sustainable living. Specifically, we focus on the ways that Unilever encourages acts of branded consumption as a form of—what we call here—climate care, by invoking normative discourses of gender and family through a form of biopolitics, and, at a larger scale, how the corporation is shaping how particular forms of climate capitalism are socialised, normalised and practiced. In doing so, we shift critical attention away from sustainable business analyses of Unilever onto the unexplored socio-cultural dimensions of Unilever's sustainability model. We argue that Unilever's socialisation of climate branding and care works to depoliticise climate change actions and actors through a biopolitics that creates a false veneer of democratisation in the form of consumer choice, thereby curtailing more progressive societal action on climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2013, the Arctic Athabaskan Council representing the Arctic Athabaskan peoples filed a petition to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. The Council sought relief for violations of their rights resulting from rapid Arctic warming and melting caused by emissions of black carbon by Canada. The aim of the paper is to show legal complaints and arguments of a particular indigenous people, Arctic Athabaskans—arguments intended to enforce Canada's obligation to reduce or eliminate black carbon emissions, which negatively affect numerous rights of indigenous Athabaskans. Additionally, the article will point to the new legal developments and potential success of those arguments and litigation itself. The article analyses issues at the intersection of human rights, indigenous peoples and climate change. The concluding remarks attempt to answer the research questions and offer some reflections on the potential to protect indigenous peoples' rights offered by this type of advocacy strategy and, more specifically, the petition in particular. The research method adopted is that of legal-institutional analysis as well as content analysis of relevant literature (analysis of the discourse). This paper moves forward existing climate litigation literature which focuses on human rights. As Osofsky and Peel (2018) highlight, human rights-based climate litigation is a new development in the field, and this paper expands it further. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cranberry, a commodity of social, cultural, and economic importance to New England, is under threat due to climatic change in this region of the United States. Yet, previous research reveals that cranberry growers have mixed attitudes about the anthropogenic roots of climate change, with many being skeptical. Building on the researchers' analysis of the personal and ecological conditions that affect climate change attitudes among cranberry growers, this paper examines the effect that key actors in the growers' social networks have on those attitudes. Through statistical analysis of survey data and content analysis of two important cranberry newsletters, the paper finds that cranberry growers' perceived importance of two key cranberry growing institutions, the "sociopolitically focused" Cape Cod Cranberry Growers' Association and the "technically focused" University of Massachusetts Cranberry Station, as well as connections to other cranberry growers, is associated in nuanced ways with growers' climate change attitudes. Drawing on the sociological theory of "social capital," the paper examines how these social ties to key actors/institutions may result in greater threat perception or worry about climate change. It then considers how "green ties," if harnessed and supported by these important actors in the cranberry grower network, might significantly mitigate climate change in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective strategies to learn about and engage with climate change play an important role in addressing this challenge. There is a growing recognition that education needs to change in order to address climate change, yet the question remains "how?" How does one engage young people with a topic that is perceived as abstract, distant, and complex, and which at the same time is contributing to growing feelings of sadness, hopelessness, and anxiety among them? In this paper, I argue that although the important contributions that the arts and humanities can make to this challenge are widely discussed, they remain an untapped or underutilized potential. I then present a novel framework and demonstrate its use in schools. Findings from a high school in Portugal point to the central place that art can play in climate change education and engagement more general, with avenues for greater depth of learning and transformative potential. The paper provides guidance for involvement in, with, and through art and makes suggestions to create links between disciplines to support meaning-making, create new images, and metaphors and bring in a wider solution space for climate change. Going beyond the stereotypes of art as communication and mainstream climate change education, it offers teachers, facilitators, and researchers a wider portfolio for climate change engagement that makes use of the multiple potentials of the arts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper distinguishes between bridging and bonding social capital to assess their roles for individual farmers’ adaptation strategies taken through technology adoption. Based on primary data collected in Langcang River (LCR) basin area in southwestern China, the paper finds: (1) adaptation measures have been widely taken by surveyed households, but non-infrastructure-based measures are more prevalent than infrastructure-based measures and (2) surveyed households have strong social capital while having weak bridging social capital. Their bonding social capital has significantly positive relationship with their adaptation decisions, but bridging social capital does not have such statistically significant relationship. It recommends that the governments contemplate carefully how to help the poor to get a good combination of bonding and bridging social capital when designing policies to help the rural poor to improve their long-term adaptive capacity and achieve sustainable rural development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is widely recognized as a major risk to societies and natural ecosystems but the high end of the risk, i.e., where risks become existential, is poorly framed, defined, and analyzed in the scientific literature. This gap is at odds with the fundamental relevance of existential risks for humanity, and it also limits the ability of scientific communities to engage with emerging debates and narratives about the existential dimension of climate change that have recently gained considerable traction. This paper intends to address this gap by scoping and defining existential risks related to climate change. We first review the context of existential risks and climate change, drawing on research in fields on global catastrophic risks, and on key risks and the so-called Reasons for Concern in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We also consider how existential risks are framed in the civil society climate movement as well as what can be learned in this respect from the COVID-19 crisis. To better frame existential risks in the context of climate change, we propose to define them as those risks that threaten the existence of a subject, where this subject can be an individual person, a community, or nation state or humanity. The threat to their existence is defined by two levels of severity: conditions that threaten (1) survival and (2) basic human needs. A third level, well-being, is commonly not part of the space of existential risks. Our definition covers a range of different scales, which leads us into further defining six analytical dimensions: physical and social processes involved, systems affected, magnitude, spatial scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In conclusion, we suggest that a clearer and more precise definition and framing of existential risks of climate change such as we offer here facilitates scientific analysis as well societal and political discourse and action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of climate change adaptation strategies on maize productivity of farms focusing on gender differences. To do so, a selection model generalizing the Heckman (1979) approach and the Oaxaca and Blinder decomposition procedure are specified and estimated. The empirical analysis is based on intra-agricultural household data from the 2018 Harmonized Household Living Conditions Survey (EHCVM) of Togo with a total sample of 8622 maize plots disaggregated by seasonThe results reveal that the average maize productivity of men is about 23.5% higher than that of women. Similarly, the average maize productivity of married women is about 28.5% higher than that of unmarried women. This suggests that married men and women have greater adaptive capacity than their counterparts and are also more likely to improve their productivity. The factors that contribute to the performance of married men and women at the expense of their counterparts are secondary education, producer assets, and climate information. We also find that the use of improved seeds, off-season cropping, and a combination of both strategies are the types of coping strategies adopted by men and married women to increase their productivity. These results have implications for the direction of development policies. These development policies can be more targeted at unmarried women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the earliest meteorological observations in Florence after the Medici Network (1654–1670), i.e., from mid-seventeenth to mid-eighteenth century, and puts them in the context of the history of meteorology in Florence. After the gap caused by the Inquisition, observations started again in the eighteenth century, made by Cipriano Antonino Targioni (1728–1748), Giovanni Targioni-Tozzetti (1737–1740), Pietro Gaetano Grifoni (1751–1766), Leonardo Ximenes (1752), and Luca Martini (1756–1772). The first two records were lost, and this paper considers those by Grifoni and Ximenes. The latter is affected by severe bias; the former is of good quality and has been recovered and analyzed. Both the observers made only one reading a day and the metadata are scarce. The paper discusses several issues: the conversion from the apparent solar time to the Central Europe Time; the transformation from a single reading to a daily average; the identification of the thermometric liquid and the scale; the test made with the snow benchmark; the comparison with the contemporary series in Bologna. The comparison of the reconstructed series with other periods, i.e., 1654–1670, 1881–1910, 1961–1990, and 1991–2017, reveals that in mid-eighteenth century the temperature reached the lowest levels, especially in summer, and showed a sudden warming in the most recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long instrumental records are fundamental to study climate changes, but their reliability and quality have to be checked before any statistical research. Moreover, when metadata are used to solve some problems, data interpretation may change and require further work to refine the series. A thorough revision of the three-century precipitation series in Padua (1713–2018) shows that the results of previous analyses were affected by serious biases. This paper clarifies key features concerning early instruments, exposure, relocation and observational protocols. The daily analysis pointed out a number of problems, bias, irregular sampling and underestimations that have passed unobserved so far. A comparison with the parallel series of Bologna and Venice made it possible to distinguish bias from the climate signal or to reconstruct missing data. The instrumental threshold was recognized to be fundamental to determine the frequency of precipitation, but less important with respect to its amount. This paper provides a methodological example to test the goodness of long instrumental series, in particular to identify problems related to metadata and observations, which is the preliminary step to perform a sound correction and obtain a reliable series. It also includes the set of original raw data, transformed into modern units. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water allocation institutions globally must operate within legal and political contexts established by precedent and codified in operating rules, even as they flex and adjust to climate change. California's Central Valley Water System (CVS) is a prime example. Recent global, national, regional, and local climate change assessments have highlighted climate-change-driven impacts on the CVS; however, these previous studies have not discussed the relative likelihood of performance decline, making it difficult to use the information for planning. In response, this paper presents a systematic climate change stress test that utilizes a physically based hydrologic model linked with a water resources system model representing the infrastructure, operations, and policy constraints of the interconnected system of natural river channels and man-made facilities that comprise the CVS. The results provide a summary of the sensitivity of the system to climate change, indicating the specific climate changes that cause performance of the system to decline below historical norms, and an estimation of the General Circulation Model (GCM) informed probability of those changes by 2050. Degraded performance is especially likely for State Water Project (SWP) deliveries (> 85%), and September carryover/drought storage in the Oroville Reservoir (the SWP's largest reservoir, ~ 95% likely to degrade). A decline in Net Delta Outflow is likely in all seasons except summer and early fall (when regulations require supplemental releases to combat salinity from sea level rise). For most of these metrics, the modeled performance drop is more severe in dry years than in wet years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the economic importance of the tourism sector and its close relationship to the environment and climate, substantial gaps remain in the investigation of climate change (CC) impacts on tourism. Unlike the increasing body of literature focusing on the variation in the climatic suitability of tourism destinations, this paper focuses on the impacts of CC on the provision of natural resources affecting the attractiveness of destinations. More specifically, the paper provides an economic measurement of climate-induced environmental changes on the coast of Mallorca (Spain), one of the Mediterranean's leading sun-and-beach destinations. A choice experiment is used to elicit the willingness to pay (WTP) of tourists for the introduction of policies aimed at reducing three climate-induced environmental changes. The estimated results show the positive WTP of tourists to reduce CC impacts and provide evidence of preference heterogeneity among individuals with different socioeconomic and travel characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With global action being outpaced by climate change impacts, communities in climate-vulnerable countries are at increased risk of incurring climate-induced losses and damages. In the last few years, disasters from extreme weather events such as typhoons have increased and have breached records, with typhoon Haiyan being the strongest ever typhoon to make landfall. Such an event solicited global compassion and altruism where Canada and the USA, apart from doling out traditional humanitarian aid, also offered immigration relief opportunities to typhoon Haiyan victims who have familial connections to their residents. Drawing from these immigration relief interventions, this paper uses a sociopolitical approach in proposing a climate humanitarian visa that would be offered to climate change victims on the basis of transnational family networks and skilled labor. Noting that several countries such as in Europe have demographic deficits and labor shortages, such a scheme would benefit both climate change victims and receiving countries. To counter the risk of selective compassion against economically trapped populations, potential receiving countries could provide skills upgrading geared toward addressing their labor shortages through their existing development programs. While migration is only one strategy in a spectrum of responses to climate change impacts, a climate humanitarian visa could provide climate change victims a legal choice for mobility while invoking altruism, hospitality, and compassion from potential receiving countries, whether or not they historically cause climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though a small fraction of the US citizenry, agricultural producers are directly responsible for the stewardship of almost half of the country's land. This group is therefore an especially important one to understand from the standpoint of how they process and respond to science as it relates to agroecological phenomena. Data from a sample (n = 111) of farmers and ranchers located in the US state of Colorado are used to expand our understanding of how food producers process scientific claims. These insights, I argue, help us think through public understandings of science more generally. Using semi-structured interviews, the paper unpacks an identified asymmetry in how respondents perceive climate science and the science associated with genetically modified food and seed. These tensions are interrogated with the help of a novel methodological design that generated data converted to shading matrices—also known as heat maps. The heat maps illuminate certain cultural values among respondents, which were reinforced by motivated reasoning. This allows for an interrogation of tensions and inconsistencies in respondents' remarks about a variety of scientific claims. The heat maps, coupled with the qualitative data, allow for an exploration into how respondents perceive certain salient socio-technical issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The public education system can play a pivotal role in creating an electorate that is well informed of the consensus around climate change and its anthropogenic causes. In particular, more states have education standards that specifically address climate change today than ever before. However, previous research raises concerns about the discretion teachers have in if and how particular types of content are presented. The effectiveness of new state standards and the extent to which such state-level standards are coopted by teacher discretion has received minimal attention. Therefore, using a nationally representative sample of 1500 middle school and high school science teachers, this research examines the effectiveness of such state-level standards and the extent to which teacher ideology and knowledge mediate the relationship between standards and actual use of a consensus-informed approach to teaching climate science. Results show that teachers in states with any type of standards around climate change spend significantly more time on the topic in the classroom. However, teachers in states that have standards that require teachers to present "both sides" of climate change are significantly less likely to use a consensus-informed approach. While teacher characteristics (knowledge and ideology) can weaken their effect, standards continue to be important predictors of the time spent on climate change in the classroom and how content is presented. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of climate science standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concern about the human impact of climate change has led to predictions of how people living in areas vulnerable to drought, flood, and temperature changes will respond to such events. Early studies warned that climate change would lead to dramatic increases in human migration as households became unable to adapt to the impacts of climate change. More recently, empirical studies focused on observed climate events and trends have documented how migration flows vary as a function of both the severity of the event and the ability of the household to migrate, among other factors. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of this literature, based on a conceptual framework in which climate shocks (e.g., drought, floods, or temperature extremes) affect (a) household capability to migrate, by depleting household resources necessary for migration, and (b) household vulnerability in staying, by increasing the risk that a household falls (further) into poverty. In combination, these factors help explain four key patterns seen in the empirical literature: (1) climate-induced migration is not necessarily more prevalent among poorer households; (2) climate-induced migration tends to be more prevalent for long-distance domestic moves than local or international moves; (3) slow-onset climate changes (such as droughts) are more likely to induce increased migration than rapid-onset changes (such as floods); and (4) the severity of climate shocks impacts migration in a nonlinear fashion, with impacts influenced by whether the capability or vulnerability channel dominates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate action-based assumptions and tradable characteristics underpinned the development of climate change futures contracts, which are related to carbon and climate markets. Therefore, this paper examines return and volatility spillover between climate change futures and carbon allowance futures using dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) models with daily and weekly frequency data. Considering the emergence of US market-based carbon futures and climate futures, this study explores bivariate optimal hedging strategies and optimal portfolio strategies. Using daily data, this study discovers unidirectional and positive return and volatility spillover from the carbon futures market to the climate change futures market, implying opportunities for diversification and hedging. The weekly analysis shows bidirectional and negative return spillover between the carbon futures market and the climate change futures market, implying opportunities for risk hedging. In addition, it also reveals unidirectional and positive volatility spillovers from the carbon futures market to the climate change futures market. The carbon market dominates the climate change futures market. The study also reveals that optimal portfolio strategies will be preferred over optimal hedging strategies. Therefore, this study offers practical implications for investors and portfolio managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Critical scholars on power relations and climate change adaptation have highlighted the lack of community participation as a consequence of unbalanced power operations. Evidence about how unequal power relations and subject formation constrain public participation, however, is under-studied. In this paper, we utilised the intersection between community participation and the subjectivities lens to examine how a hierarchical political structure systematically operates to influence community engagement in adaptation and how and why local communities are included or excluded from adaptation as a result of subject-making, using Vietnam as a case study. Using 66 semi-structured interviews and ten focus group discussions involving policymakers, practitioners, local authorities, and communities, we examined how the key respondents stereotyped local roles and capacity in agricultural adaptation activities. Applying content analysis, we found that the general population in Vietnam is often framed as lacking knowledge and capacity to respond to climate impacts. Reflected through a traditional government-led model in two agricultural adaptation projects, the study showed that subtle but pervasive subjectivities and subject-making processes constrain community participation by affecting perceptions and, subsequently, actions of key stakeholders, undermining local roles and capacity in undertaking adaptation. These perpetuate the power imbalance between local communities and government entities. The findings contribute to the prevailing scholarship of climate change adaptation that, under an authoritarian regime, local capacity is undermined not only by powerholders but also by community members as they consent to government decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does land security matter in climate change adaptation strategies choice? To provide answers to this, the paper used a survey data collected from a random sample of 341 agricultural households in 2020 in Benin. Descriptive statistics and multivariate probit model were used to analyze the data. The main adaptations strategies identified are adjustment in sowing time, tree planting, crop and livestock integration, use of irrigation, use of improved variety, and endogenous beliefs, while family land, own land and rented land are the types of land tenure arrangements. Results from a multivariate probit model show that the use of family land increases the likelihood of planting tree, crop and livestock integration, use of improved variety, and endogenous beliefs. Farmers using own land are more likely to adopt tree planting and endogenous beliefs as adaptation strategies, while they are less likely to adopt irrigation. The use of rented land increases the likelihood of adjusting the sowing time, crop and livestock integration, use of irrigation, use of improved variety, and use of endogenous beliefs. These findings suggest that the choice of adaptation strategies to cope with climate change depends on the type of land tenure arrangements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider climate scepticism in the Russian context. We are interested in whether this has been discussed within the social scientific literature and ask first whether there is a discernible climate sceptical discourse in Russia. We find that there is very little literature directly on this topic in either English or Russian and we seek to synthesise related literature to fill the gap. Secondly, we consider whether Russian climate scepticism has been shaped by the same factors as in the USA, exploring how scientists, the media, public opinion, the government and business shaped climate scepticism in Russia. Climate scepticism in the USA is understood as a ‘conservative countermovement’ that seeks to react against the perceived gains of the progressive environmental movement, but we argue that this is not an appropriate framework for understanding Russian climate scepticism. Articulated within a less agonistic environment and situated within an authoritarian regime, Russian expressions of climate scepticism balance the environmental, political and economic needs of the regime under the constraints of a strong ‘carbon culture’ and closed public debate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) activity is projected for the late twenty-first century using a two-step dynamical downscaling framework. A regional atmospheric model, is run for 27 seasons, to generate tropical storm cases. Each storm case is -resimulated (up to 15 days) using the higher-resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model. Thirteen CMIP3 or CMIP5 climate change scenarios are explored. Robustness of projections is assessed using statistical significance tests and comparing changes across models. The proportion of TCs making U.S. landfall increases for the warming scenarios, due, in part, to an increases in the percentage of TC genesis near the U.S. coast and a change in climatological steering flows favoring more U.S. landfall events. The increases in U.S. landfall proportion leads to an increase in U.S. landfalling category 4–5 hurricane frequency, averaging about + 400% across the models; 10 of 13 models/ensembles project an increase (which is statistically significant in three of 13 models). We have only tentative confidence in this latter increase, which occurs despite a robust decrease in Atlantic basin category 1–5 hurricane frequency, no robust change in Atlantic basin category 4–5 and U.S. landfalling category 1–5 hurricane frequency, and no robust change in U.S. landfalling hurricane intensities. Rainfall rates, averaged within a 100-km radius of the storms, are projected to increase by about 18% for U.S. landfalling TCs. Important caveats to the study include low correlation (skill) for interannual variability of modeled vs. observed U.S. TC landfall frequency and model bias of excessive TC genesis near and east of the U.S. east coast in present-day simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attempts to clear the misinterpretation on the study done by Kirshen and Fennessey (KF) devoted to Climatic Change and Water Resources Planning Criteria. Water supply system of the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority; Total system demand of the KF study; Description on the KF scenario.

A recent paper in this journal argues that the choice of statistical model is responsible for the divergence in damage estimates of climate change on US agriculture. We provide five arguments why we believe this assertion is misguided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces the Special Issue 'Hydrological Model Intercomparison for Climate Impact Assessment'. We describe the river basins used as case studies, the input data, the hydrological models, and the climate scenarios applied in the multi-model framework. We also summarize the main results of the papers contained in this Special Issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the practice of Community Based Adaptation (CBA) to climate change in countries like Nepal is growing, the literature has pointed out the need for more research in order to test the effectiveness of CBA in reaching the most vulnerable households and its wider applicability. This paper reviews a Community Adaptation Plan (CAP) piloted and implemented in Nepal. The study involved interviews and interaction with a wide range of relevant stakeholders, in order to map their perceptions on the effectiveness of CAP. The findings show that the CAP process and implementation provided for recognition of the role of local communities in climate change adaptation, and ensured their participation and leadership in the planning process. However, due to issues related to the local structure and governance of community-based organizations, the benefits of climate change adaptation support were enjoyed mostly by elites and powerful individuals. The paper suggests that more inclusive approaches are needed, so as to ensure the planning and governance of local institutions is more accountable and responsive to vulnerable households. This could be achieved by devolving decision-making power to the vulnerable households and ensuring inclusive provisions in membership, representation and resource allocation that encourage more equitable sharing of benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study contributes to the literature on labour reallocation and adaptation in response to weather anomalies. Existing literature on labour mobility and weather shocks primarily focus on migration to the neglect of worker commuting as a potential adaptation strategy. Utilizing individual-level panel data from the Village Dynamics in South Asia (VDSA) dataset for the year 2010–2014, the present study explores the impact of weather anomalies on migration and commuting as well as participation and earnings in the non-agricultural sector. The fixed effects regression results show that negative temperature shocks induce a flow of labour outside the village through labour out-migration and longer-distance commutes. Temperature stress also negatively impacts non-agricultural earnings. The effects of temperature shocks are heterogeneous across the baseline climate of the villages suggesting evidence of adaptation to weather shocks. The study emphasizes the crucial role of labour mobility and adaptation in coping with weather shocks. The paper concludes with some policy suggestions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Island communities are among the first and most adversely affected by the impacts of global climate change. Islands are vulnerable to climate change because of their isolated geography, large coastal areas, and low economic diversification. This paper presents a model-based evaluation of the macroeconomic impacts of climate change on the Blue Economy of southern European islands. We consider climate change impact chains on tourism, maritime transport, and electricity demand in a downscaled modeling framework for different climatic scenarios to the end of the century. Our findings show important economic losses in all climatic scenarios, yet economic damages under an RCP8.5 scenario more than doubled compared to a RCP2.6 pathway. Magnitudes of impacts vary across islands, depending on the level of economic diversification and geographic remoteness. The effects of climate change on the tourism sector are detrimental to the islandic economies, given the sector’s complex value chain and dominant position in value added. Similarly, increasing electricity demand for cooling and water desalination puts additional stress on the economy of the islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how climate change adaptation impacts on farm productivity and the ability of households to accumulate assets in the context of a developing economy. We apply an endogenous switching regression to data obtained from 1440 farmers in Ghana. Our model, which accounts for endogeneity and selection bias, allows us to simultaneously determine the factors that influence maize farmers’ decision to adapt to climate change and the productivity and household assets that result from both adaptation and otherwise. We estimate an inverse relationship between rainfall and the decision to adapt to climate change. As expected, we find that access to information has a positive effect on the decision to adapt. Farms that benefit from adaptation do not become less productive with increases in temperature or rainfall. Overall, we find that farmers who adapt to climate change are more productive and have more household assets than their counterfactual. Farmers who do not adapt obtain less yield and have less household assets than their counterfactual. These findings have important implications for policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the world's largest fossil fuels exporter, Russia is one of the key countries for addressing global climate change. However, it has never demonstrated any significant ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper applies ideational research methodology to identify the structural differences in economic, political, and social normative contexts between industrialized fossil fuel importing economies and Russia that lead to the fundamental gap in motivations driving decarbonization efforts. Russia is unlikely to replicate the approach to the green transition and climate policy instruments of energy-importing countries. In order to launch decarbonization in Russia, interested stakeholders need to frame climate policies in Russia differently. Specifically, the framing must address the priority of diversification as a means to adapting the national economy to a new green landscape, the combination of diverse channels for decarbonization, the promotion of energy-efficiency, closer attention to climate-related forest projects, and linkage of climate change with other environmental problems. Moreover, considering Russia's emissions as a part of the global economic system and shifting from a simplistic national focus on GHG emissions reduction would help coordinate policies through dialogue between exporters and importers of fossil fuel energy-intensive goods, which is essential for the global movement towards a net-zero future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article introduces this special journal issue on climate change impacts on Sierra Nevada water resources and provides a critical summary of major findings and questions that remain open, representing future research opportunities. Some of these questions are long standing, while others emerge from the new research reported in the eight research papers in this special issue. Six of the papers study Eastern Sierra watersheds, which have been under-represented in the recent literature. One of those papers presents hydrologic projections for Owens Valley, benefiting from multi-decadal streamflow records made available by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power for hydrologic model calibration. Taken together, the eight research papers present an image of localized climatic and hydrologic specificity that allows few region-wide conclusions. A source of uncertainty across these studies concerns the inability of the (statistically downscaled) global climate model results that were used to adequately project future changes in key processes including (among others) the precipitation distribution with altitude. Greater availability of regional climate model results in the future will provide research opportunities to project altitudinal shifts in snowfall and rainfall, with important implications to snowmelt timing, streamflow temperatures, and the Eastern Sierra's precipitation-shadow effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canadian contributions to International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008 were designed to improve the understanding of climate change impacts and adaptation and to gain insight into issues surrounding community health and well-being in Canada's arctic. Fifty-two research projects, involving scientists, northern partners and communities, focused on the arctic atmosphere and climate, cryosphere, oceans, sea ice, marine ecosystems, terrestrial ecosystems, wildlife as well as human health and community well-being. Key research findings on these topics are presented in this special issue of Climatic Change. This introductory paper presents an overview of the international and Canadian IPY programs and a summary of Canadian IPY results, including progress made in data management and capacity building. The legacy of IPY in Canada includes expanded international scientific cooperation, meaningful partnerships with northern communities, and more northern residents with research training. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Better information about the cost-benefit of abatement has an ambiguous effect on both the equilibrium membership and on aggregate welfare of an international environmental agreement. Previous papers claim that (complete) learning increases membership and decreases aggregate welfare. That claim is based on analysis of approximations to the relations between a damage parameter and membership and welfare. Those approximations have characteristics not shared by the functions they are intended to approximate, so conclusions based on the approximations are wrong. The correct result is that complete learning increases membership and welfare when the damage parameter is 'very likely to be high' , and the reverse holds when the damage parameter is 'very likely to be low'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investments in climate-change adaptation will have to be made while the extent of climate change is uncertain. However, some important sources of uncertainty will fall over time as more climate data become available. This paper investigates the effect on optimal investment decision-making of learning that reduces uncertainty. It develops a simple real options method to value options that are found in many climate-change adaptation contexts. This method modifies a binomial tree model frequently applied to climate-change adaptation problems, incorporating gradual learning using a Bayesian updating process driven by new observations of extreme events. It is used to investigate the timing, scale, or upgradable design of an adaptation project. Recognition that we might have more or different information in the future makes flexibility valuable. The amount of value added by flexibility and the ways in which flexibility should be exploited depend on how fast we learn about climate change. When learning will occur quickly, the value of the option to delay investment is high. When learning will occur slowly, the value of the option to build a small low-risk project instead of a large high-risk one is high. For intermediate cases, the option to build a small project that can be expanded in the future is high. The approach in this paper can support efficient decision-making on adaptation projects by anticipating that we gradually learn about climate change by the recurrence of extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of the impacts of climate change at different levels of global warming helps inform national and international policy discussion around mitigation targets. This paper provides consistent estimates of global and regional impacts and risks at increases in global mean temperature up to 5 °C above pre-industrial levels, for over 30 indicators representing temperature extremes and heatwaves, hydrological change, floods and droughts and proxies for impacts on crop yields. At the global scale, all the impacts that could plausibly be either adverse or beneficial are adverse, and impacts and risks increase with temperature change. For example, the global average chance of a major heatwave increases from 5% in 1981–2010 to 28% at 1.5 °C and 92% at 4 °C, of an agricultural drought increases from 9 to 24% at 1.5 °C and 61% at 4 °C, and of the 50-year return period river flood increases from 2 to 2.4% at 1.5 °C and 5.4% at 4 °C. The chance of a damaging hot spell for maize increases from 5 to 50% at 4 °C, whilst the chance for rice rises from 27 to 46%. There is considerable uncertainty around these central estimates, and impacts and risks vary between regions. Some impacts—for example heatwaves—increase rapidly as temperature increases, whilst others show more linear responses. The paper presents estimates of the risk of impacts exceeding specific targets and demonstrates that these estimates are sensitive to the thresholds used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers the authors' insight on the paper "Are bird populations in tropical and subtropical forests of South America affected by climate change?," by M. Nores that was published in a 2009 issue of "Climatic Change." The authors say that the bird data underestimates the current number of birds in South American forests. They add that the methods used are unacceptable in the field of modern ornithology and the paper lacks insight on the possible climate change effects on birds in the forests.

Over the last few years, California has passed some of the strongest climate policies in the USA. These new policies have been motivated in part by increasing concerns over the risk of climate-related impacts and facilitated by the state's existing framework of energy and air quality policies. This paper presents an overview of the evolution of this increased awareness of climate change issues by policy makers brought about by the strong link between climate science and policy in the state. The State Legislature initiated this link in 1988 with the mandate to prepare an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change to California. Further interactions between science and policy has more recently resulted, in summer of 2006, in the passage of Assembly Bill 32, a law that limits future greenhouse gas emissions in California. This paper discusses the important role played by a series of state and regional climate assessments beginning in 1988 and, in particular, the lessons learned from a recently completed study known as the Scenarios Project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario literature and SRES, identifies the most vulnerable elements in the communication of SRES. In the communication of GHG emission scenarios through SRES, the weaknesses that have been identified by the authors of this paper are the normative character of climate change assessment, the plausibility of the scenarios, and the risk of simplification of complex messages. The causes of these communicative issues have been identified as the intrinsic difficulties of interdisciplinary science, the uniqueness of the science-policy relation, and the need for a high degree of transparency. This paper suggests improving future communication of complex messages from scientists to their audience by means of clear reasoning when communicating with non-scientists, explicitly normative emission scenarios, and increased stakeholder participation in scenario development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores optimal near-term technology R&D in the face of uncertain damages caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases. The paper puts particular emphasis on understanding how optimal near-term R&D expenditures might vary based on the technologies pursued in the R&D program. The exploration is conducted in the context of varying impacts from R&D on the global abatement cost function. The R&D planning problem is considered first within a theoretical framework and is then pursued in a stylized application using the DICE model. The paper provides intuition into the circumstances under which near-term technology R&D might increase or decrease under uncertainty, thereby serving as a hedge against climate uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this case study, we examine a broad range of impacts on tourism and recreation based on projected changes to Indiana’s climate. The direct impacts of climate change on Indiana include increases in the number of hot and extremely hot days each summer, fewer mild days, more rain, and less snow. Each direct impact will affect tourism and recreation. Additionally, a range of indirect impacts are anticipated, including climate-related changes in health issues, new infrastructure needs, changes in forests and other recreational areas, and shifting consumer attitudes toward travel and recreation. Although direct impacts are predictable, indirect impacts on the complex tourism system are harder to anticipate, and the tourism and recreation industry must build resilience to respond to future change. The paper concludes with recommendations for future study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change policy has long been subject to influence by a wide variety of organizations. Despite their importance, the key role of public relations (PR) firms has long been overlooked in the climate political space. This paper provides an exploratory overview of the extent and nature of involvement of PR firms in climate political action by organizations in five sectors: Coal/Steel/Rail, Oil & Gas, Utilities, Renewable Energy, and the Environmental Movement. The analysis shows that the engagement of public relations firms by organizations in all of these sectors is widespread. In absolute terms, the Utility and Gas & Oil sectors engage the most PR firms, and the Environmental Movement engages the fewest. Organizations in the Utilities Sector show a statistically significant higher use of PR firms than the other sectors. Within each sector, engagement of PR firms is concentrated in a few firms, and the major oil companies and electrical-supply manufactures are the heaviest employers of such firms. PR firms generally specialize in representing specific sectors, and a few larger PR firms are widely engaged in climate and energy political activity. PR firms developed campaigns that frequently relied on third-party groups to engage with the public, criticize opponents, and serve as the face of an advertising campaign. Our analysis shows that PR firms are a key organizational actor in climate politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement on climate; the main goal of which is to provide guidance on how “to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2”. Paraphrasing, Article 4.1 says that, to achieve this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG emissions fall to zero in the second half of this century. To aggregate net GHG emissions, 100-year global warming potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used to convert non-CO2 emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. The GWP-scaling method is tested using methane as an example. The temperature projections using GWP-100 scaling are shown to be seriously in error. This throws doubt on the use of GWP-100 scaling to estimate net GHG emissions. An alternative method to determine the net-zero point for GHG emissions based on radiative forcing is derived, where the net-zero point is identified with the maximum of GHG forcing. This shows that, to meet the Article 2 warming goal, the net-zero point for GHG emissions needs to be reached as early as 2036, much sooner than in the Article 4.1 window. Other scientific problems in Article 4.1 that further undermine its purpose to guide efforts to achieve the Article 2 temperature targets are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The treatment of uncertainty in climate-change science is dominated by the far-reaching influence of the 'frequentist' tradition in statistics, which interprets uncertainty in terms of sampling statistics and emphasizes p-values and statistical significance. This is the normative standard in the journals where most climate-change science is published. Yet a sampling distribution is not always meaningful (there is only one planet Earth). Moreover, scientific statements about climate change are hypotheses, and the frequentist tradition has no way of expressing the uncertainty of a hypothesis. As a result, in climate-change science, there is generally a disconnect between physical reasoning and statistical practice. This paper explores how the frequentist statistical methods used in climate-change science can be embedded within the more general framework of probability theory, which is based on very simple logical principles. In this way, the physical reasoning represented in scientific hypotheses, which underpins climate-change science, can be brought into statistical practice in a transparent and logically rigorous way. The principles are illustrated through three examples of controversial scientific topics: the alleged global warming hiatus, Arctic-midlatitude linkages, and extreme event attribution. These examples show how the principles can be applied, in order to develop better scientific practice. "La théorie des probabilités n'est que le bon sens reduit au calcul." (Pierre-Simon Laplace, Essai Philosophiques sur les Probabilités, 1819). "It is sometimes considered a paradox that the answer depends not only on the observations but on the question; it should be a platitude." (Harold Jeffreys, Theory of Probability, 1st edition, 1939). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the causal factors of livelihood challenges and associated vulnerabilities is essential for developing viable adaptation strategies. However, clarifying which livelihood challenges can be attributed to which causal factors remains a challenge. In this paper, we used a case study in Vanuatu to show how local populations attribute subsistence challenges to underlying causes. Particularly, we are interested in whether there is a tendency to view climate change as the primary cause, and if so, why. We followed a participatory approach involving local community members and experts at all stages of the study process. For this, we used complementary research methods such as resource mapping, participant observation, and in-depth interviews with local community members and local agriculture experts. The results show that local populations are indeed inclined to attribute problems to external causes, particularly climate change. However, the results also indicate that this external attribution is not definitive. Rather, we find that over the course of participatory reflection, attribution to climate change was supplemented and even replaced by internal causal factors, such as changes in garden practices. Our findings suggest that the initial emphasis on climate change may be related to prevailing narratives that may have influenced individual perceptions of the study participants and created social desirability. If such bias is not recognized, the narratives risk being reified, with potential new insights being overlooked. As a result, local attribution may overstate or understate specific causes, such as climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A response to the commentary on the article "No harvest was reaped: demographic and climatic factors in the decline of the Neo-Assyrian Empire" is presented. The authors note that the premise of their original paper and its purpose has been misread and misjudged. They also stresses that the larger point of their article has been missed out where the proxy records indicate a shift towards drier conditions.