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Extreme temperature outages can lead to not just economic losses but also various non-energy impacts (NEI), such as increased mortality rates, property damage, and reduced productivity, due to significant degradation of indoor operating conditions caused by service disruptions. However, existing resilience assessment approaches lack specificity for extreme temperature conditions. They often overlook temperature-related mortality and neglect the customer characteristics and grid response in the calculation, despite the significant influence of these factors on NEI-related economic losses. This paper aims to address these gaps by introducing a comprehensive framework to estimate the impact of resilience enhancement not only on the direct economic losses incurred by customers but also on potential NEI, including mortality and the value of statistical life during extreme temperature-related outages. The proposed resilience valuation integrates customer characteristics and grid response variables based on a scalable grid simulation environment. This study adopts a holistic approach to quantify customer-oriented economic impacts, utilizing probabilistic loss scenarios that incorporate health-related factors and damage/loss models as a function of exposure for valuation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through comparative resilient outage planning, using grid response models emulating a Texas weather zone during the 2021 winter storm Uri. The case study results show that enhanced outage planning with hardened infrastructure can improve the system resilience and thereby reduce the relative risk of mortality by 16% and save the total costs related to non-energy impacts by 74%. These findings underscore the efficacy of the framework by assessing the financial implications of each case, providing valuable insights for decision-makers and stakeholders involved in extreme-weather related resilience planning for risk management and mitigation strategies. • Framework for the value of customer resilience by extreme temperature-related outages • Resilience valuation using customer characteristics and grid variables in simulations • Loss scenarios using customer factors and temperature-based damage models • Applying resilience valuation to 2021 Winter Storm Uri use-case [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Threats against power grids continue to increase, as extreme weather conditions and natural disasters (extreme events) become more frequent. Hence, there is a need for the simulation and modeling of power grids to reflect realistic conditions during extreme events conditions, especially distribution systems. This paper presents a modeling and simulation platform for electric distribution grids which can estimate overall power demand during extreme weather conditions. The presented platform's efficacy is shown by demonstrating estimation of electrical demand for (1) Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) during winter storm Uri in 2021, and (2) alternative hypothetical scenarios of integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), weatherization, and load electrification. In comparing to the actual demand served by ERCOT during the winter storm Uri of 2021, the proposed platform estimates approximately 34 GW of peak capacity deficit. 1 1 These numbers are consistent with state-of-the-art prediction results published in the literature (Gruber et al., 2022). For the case of the future electrification of heating loads, peak capacity of 78 GW (124% increase) is estimated, which would be reduced to 47 GW (38% increase) with the adoption of efficient heating appliances and improved thermal insulation. Integrating distributed solar PV and storage into the grid causes improvement in the local energy utilization and hence reduces the potential unmet energy by 31% and 40%, respectively. • Modeling and simulation platform to estimate power demand during extreme weather conditions. • Demonstration of the platform on 2021 winter storm Uri conditions. • 34 GW of peak capacity deficit estimated for the current Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. • 78 GW peak capacity deficit for load electrification, reduced to 47 GW with technology efficiency • Integrating distributed solar PV and storage reduces the potential unmet energy by 31% and 40%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We evaluate the impact of operational modeling details on resource adequacy results. • Multi-stage probabilistic assessments may better capture operational details. • Thermal generator outages may impact results more than solar forecast errors. • Flexibility provided by hybrids can reduce the number of load-shedding events. • Results are more sensitive to hybrid inverter sizing than other hybrid features. Assessing and maintaining resource adequacy (RA) is a core pillar of power systems. However, recent changes in the physical makeup of these systems and the conditions under which these systems must operate have yielded a renewed interest in the methods, metrics, and assumptions that underpin RA assessments. In this paper, we systematically explore a wide range of RA modeling dimensions, including: the objective function and level of operational detail in the underlying model formulation; the quantity (look-ahead) and quality (accuracy) of data that is available for making operational decisions within those models; and the physical configuration of solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage hybrid resources. We apply a set of probabilistic RA tools and production cost modeling tools to a realistic test system based loosely on a future Electric Reliability Council of Texas power system dominated by solar PV resources. Under the assumptions of our system and models, we find that multi-stage probabilistic assessments may provide a more robust evaluation of RA by capturing a wider range of operational and system interactions, but this comes at a computational cost of 1–2 orders of magnitude longer run time depending on the specific configuration. In addition, the information on thermal generator availability impacts RA performance by an order of magnitude more than solar resource forecasts, which is driven by the comparatively larger magnitude of thermal outages than solar forecast errors within our test system. Lastly, the flexibility provided by hybrid and other resources can help reduce system load-shedding event frequencies and enable the system to be more robust to inaccurate forecast information, and alternative hybrid inverter sizes can impact RA levels by 1–2 orders of magnitude. Our results point to the importance of a broader flexibility framework to describe the interaction between (1) flexibility "supply" from both physical resource capabilities and operational constraints considered in the modeling, and (2) flexibility "demand" from forecast errors, thermal generator outages, and other sources of uncertainty, as well as their RA impacts. Results are likely sensitive to the system buildout explored; future work could consider additional system configurations and conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the share of solar photovoltaics (PV) in the power system increases, there is a growing need for flexibility from multiple, possibly interdependent sources to adjust to PV's variability, uncertainty, and diurnal dependence. This paper investigates how stochastic unit commitment leveraging probabilistic solar forecasts can support other flexibility measures under high solar shares. We consider two flexibility measures relevant to day-ahead scheduling: battery energy time-shifting and solar ancillary service provision. Unit commitment and economic dispatch simulations are conducted on a realistic test system based on Texas using day-ahead solar trajectories. The benefits of the two flexibility measures are pronounced when the instantaneous solar share is high, offering cost savings of 10%–20% in the spring. For a Texas-sized system, this translates to hundreds of millions of dollars in cost savings once the installed PV capacity enables instantaneous solar shares regularly exceeding 40%. Using probabilistic forecasts also greatly increases the reliability of upward reserve provision from solar PV, reducing unserved reserves by 50%–100%. Both day-ahead forecast resolution and errors can impact system reliability at high solar shares, but the stochastic formulation has significant value, mitigating reliability impacts on over-forecast days. • Forecast resolution as well as error has reliability impacts at high solar shares. • Flexibility measures considered are battery storage and solar ancillary services. • Stochastic unit commitment greatly improves reliability of solar upward reserves. • Cost savings from flexibility are pronounced for instantaneous solar shares >40%. • Demonstrated on Texas-sized system with realistic day-ahead solar trajectories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]