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Introduction: exposure to air pollution has been shown to increase risk of inflammatory processes and risk of cardiovascular mortality. Such exposure may therefore also be a risk factor for cognitive impairment/dementia. Method: a systematic review of the literature was conducted with databases searched using keywords for air pollution, cognitive decline and dementia. All identified abstracts and potentially relevant articles were double read. For those papers meeting the inclusion criteria, summary tables were prepared and papers quality assessed. Results: from 1,551 abstracts identified, 10 articles were retrieved of which two were rejected. Of the eight remaining six reported prevalent cognitive assessment with historical pollution exposure and two incident cognitive decline, also with historical pollution exposure. In general, an association was reported between exposure and poorer prevalent measures of cognitive function. Data were mixed for incident cognitive decline with one study finding an association and the other not. Reports were limited by a lack of detailed reporting, use of proxy measures of pollution exposure and a lack of clarity regarding cognitive testing methodology and analysis. Conclusion: this systematic review highlights that there is some evidence of a potential association between air pollution and subsequent cognitive decline. Further work is clearly required and longitudinal analysis of ongoing cohort studies or new research would add much needed clarity to this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: the care of older people with dementia is often complicated by physical comorbidity and polypharmacy, but the extent and patterns of these have not been well described. This paper reports analysis of these factors within a large, cross-sectional primary care data set. Methods: data were extracted for 291,169 people aged 65 years or older registered with 314 general practices in the UK, of whom 10,258 had an electronically recorded dementia diagnosis. Differences in the number and type of 32 physical conditions and the number of repeat prescriptions in those with and without dementia were examined. Age-gender standardised rates were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) of physical comorbidity and polypharmacy. Results: people with dementia, after controlling for age and sex, had on average more physical conditions than controls (mean number of conditions 2.9 versus 2.4; P < 0.001) and were on more repeat medication (mean number of repeats 5.4 versus 4.2; P < 0.001). Those with dementia were more likely to have 5 or more physical conditions (age-sex standardised OR [sOR] 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35-1.50; P < 0.001) and were also more likely to be on 5 or more (sOR 1.46; 95% CI 1.40-1.52; P < 0.001) or 10 or more repeat prescriptions (sOR 2.01; 95% CI 1.90-2.12; P < 0.001). Conclusions: people with dementia have a higher burden of comorbid physical disease and polypharmacy than those without dementia, even after accounting for age and sex differences. Such complex needs require an integrated response from general health professionals and multidisciplinary dementia specialists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: we estimated the cost-effectiveness of a community falls prevention service compared with usual care from a National Health Service and personal social services perspective over the 12 month trial period.Design: a cost-effectiveness and cost utility analysis alongside a randomised controlled trialSetting: community.Participants: people over 60 years of age living at home or in residential care who had fallen and called an emergency ambulance but were not taken to hospital.Interventions: referral to community fall prevention services or usual health and social care.Measurements: incremental cost per fall prevented and incremental cost per Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs)Results: a total of 157 participants (82 interventions and 75 controls) were used to perform the economic evaluation. The mean difference in NHS and personal social service costs between the groups was £-1,551 per patient over 1 year (95% CI: £-5,932 to £2,829) comparing the intervention and control groups. The intervention patients experienced on average 5.34 fewer falls over 12 months (95% CI: −7.06 to −3.62). The mean difference in QALYs was 0.070 (95% CI: −0.010 to 0.150) in favour of the intervention group.Conclusion: the community falls prevention service was estimated to be cost-effective in this high-risk group. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN67535605. (controlled-trials.com) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background defining features of the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries were the tragic extent to which care home residents were affected and the difficulty in preventing the introduction and subsequent spread of infection. Management of risk in care homes requires good evidence on the most important transmission pathways. One hypothesised route at the start of the pandemic, prior to widespread testing, was the transfer of patients from hospitals that were experiencing high levels of nosocomial events. Methods we tested the hypothesis that hospital discharge events increased the intensity of care home cases using a national individually linked health record cohort in Wales, UK. We monitored 186,772 hospital discharge events over the period from March to July 2020, tracking individuals to 923 care homes and recording the daily case rate in the homes populated by 15,772 residents. We estimated the risk of an increase in case rates following exposure to a hospital discharge using multi-level hierarchical logistic regression and a novel stochastic Hawkes process outbreak model. Findings in regression analysis, after adjusting for care home size, we found no significant association between hospital discharge and subsequent increases in care home case numbers (odds ratio: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.82, 1.90). Risk factors for increased cases included care home size, care home resident density and provision of nursing care. Using our outbreak model, we found a significant effect of hospital discharge on the subsequent intensity of cases. However, the effect was small and considerably less than the effect of care home size, suggesting the highest risk of introduction came from interaction with the community. We estimated that approximately 1.8% of hospital discharged patients may have been infected. Interpretation there is growing evidence in the UK that the risk of transfer of COVID-19 from the high-risk hospital setting to the high-risk care home setting during the early stages of the pandemic was relatively small. Although access to testing was limited to initial symptomatic cases in each care home at this time, our results suggest that reduced numbers of discharges, selection of patients and action taken within care homes following transfer all may have contributed to the mitigation. The precise key transmission routes from the community remain to be quantified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Weak grip strength is associated with a range of adverse health outcomes and an accelerated decline in grip strength confers an even greater risk. The factors associated with change in grip strength in mid-life remain to be fully determined. Methods We used data from 44,315 UK Biobank participants who had grip strength measured at baseline (2006-10) and a subsequent visit approximately nine years later. At baseline, participants' long-term conditions (LTCs) were categorised against a hierarchy, with multimorbidity characterised by the number of LTC categories. Lifestyle factors were assessed. Change in grip strength was grouped into four patterns: decline, stable low, stable high or reference (no change or increase) and used as the outcome in multinomial logistic regression. Results Most LTC categories were associated with adverse patterns of change in grip strength (stable low and/or decline): for example, musculoskeletal/trauma conditions were associated with an increased risk of the stable low pattern (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] = 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.49-1.79). Multimorbidity and lifestyle factors had independent associations with grip strength change. Those with 3+ categories of LTCs were more likely to experience decline in grip strength (RRR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.08-1.28) compared to those with none. Low physical activity was associated with adverse patterns of grip strength, while raised body mass index (BMI) had divergent associations. Conclusions Individuals living with multimorbidity and those with lifestyle risk factors such as low physical activity are at increased risk of low muscle strength and the loss of strength over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background sarcopenia registries are a potential method to meet the challenge of recruitment to sarcopenia trials. We tested the feasibility of setting up a UK sarcopenia registry, the feasibility of recruitment methods and sought to characterise the pilot registry population. Methods six diverse UK sites took part, with potential participants aged 65 and over approached via mailshots from local primary care practices. Telephone pre-screening using the SARC-F score was followed by in-person screening and baseline visit. Co-morbidities, medications, grip strength, Short Physical Performance Battery, bioimpedance analysis, Geriatric Depression Score, Montreal Cognitive Assessment, Sarcopenia Quality of Life score were performed and permission sought for future recontact. Descriptive statistics for recruitment rates and baseline measures were generated; an embedded randomised trial examined the effect of a University logo on the primary care mailshot on recruitment rates. Results sixteen practices contributed a total of 3,508 letters. In total, 428 replies were received (12% response rate); 380 underwent telephone pre-screening of whom 215 (57%) were eligible to attend a screening visit; 150 participants were recruited (40% of those pre-screened) with 147 contributing baseline data. No significant difference was seen in response rates between mailshots with and without the logo (between-group difference 1.1% [95% confidence interval −1.0% to 3.4%], P  = 0.31). The mean age of enrollees was 78 years; 72 (49%) were women. In total, 138/147 (94%) had probable sarcopenia on European Working Group on Sarcopenia 2019 criteria and 145/147 (98%) agreed to be recontacted about future studies. Conclusion recruitment to a multisite UK sarcopenia registry is feasible, with high levels of consent for recontact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background epidemiological data on COVID-19 infection in care homes are scarce. We analysed data from a large provider of long-term care for older people to investigate infection and mortality during the first wave of the pandemic. Methods cohort study of 179 UK care homes with 9,339 residents and 11,604 staff. We used manager-reported daily tallies to estimate the incidence of suspected and confirmed infection and mortality in staff and residents. Individual-level electronic health records from 8,713 residents were used to model risk factors for confirmed infection, mortality and estimate attributable mortality. Results 2,075/9,339 residents developed COVID-19 symptoms (22.2% [95% confidence interval: 21.4%; 23.1%]), while 951 residents (10.2% [9.6%; 10.8%]) and 585 staff (5.0% [4.7%; 5.5%]) had laboratory-confirmed infections. The incidence of confirmed infection was 152.6 [143.1; 162.6] and 62.3 [57.3; 67.5] per 100,000 person-days in residents and staff, respectively. Sixty-eight percent (121/179) of care homes had at least one COVID-19 infection or COVID-19-related death. Lower staffing ratios and higher occupancy rates were independent risk factors for infection. Out of 607 residents with confirmed infection, 217 died (case fatality rate: 35.7% [31.9%; 39.7%]). Mortality in residents with no direct evidence of infection was twofold higher in care homes with outbreaks versus those without (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.2 [1.8; 2.6]). Conclusions findings suggest many deaths occurred in people who were infected with COVID-19, but not tested. Higher occupancy and lower staffing levels were independently associated with risks of infection. Protecting staff and residents from infection requires regular testing for COVID-19 and fundamental changes to staffing and care home occupancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Frailty assessment using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) has been mandated for older people admitted to English major trauma centres (MTC) since April 2019. Little evidence is available as to CFS-associated outcomes in the trauma population. Objective To investigate post-injury outcomes stratified by the CFS. Methods A single centre prospective observational cohort study was undertaken. CFS was prospectively assigned to patients ≥ 65 years old admitted to the MTC over a 5-month period. Primary outcome was 30-day post-injury mortality. Secondary outcomes were length of hospital stay, complications and discharge level of care. Results In 300 patients median age was 82; 146 (47%) were frail (CFS 5–9) and 28 (9.3%) severely frail (CFS 7–9). Frail patients had lower injury severity scores (median 9 vs 16) but greater 30-day mortality (CFS 5–6 odds ratio (OR) 5.68; P  < 0.01; CFS 7–9 OR 10.38; P  < 0.01). Frailty was associated with delirium (29.5% vs 17.5%; P  = 0.02), but not complication rate (50.7% vs 41.6%; P  = 0.20) or length of hospital stay (13 vs 11 days; P  = 0.35). Mild to moderate frailty was associated with increased care level at discharge (OR 2.31; P  < 0.01). Conclusions Frailty is an independent predictor of 30-day mortality, inpatient delirium and increased care level at discharge in older people experiencing trauma. CFS can therefore be used to identify those at risk of poor outcome who may benefit from comprehensive geriatric review, validating its inclusion in the 2019 best practice tariff for major trauma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To determine whether mobilisation timing was associated with the cumulative incidence of hospital discharge by 30 days after hip fracture surgery, accounting for potential confounders and the competing risk of in-hospital death. Method We examined data for 135,105 patients 60 years or older who underwent surgery for nonpathological first hip fracture between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016 in any hospital in England or Wales. We tested whether the cumulative incidences of discharge differed between those mobilised early (within 36 h of surgery) and those mobilised late, accounting for potential confounders and the competing risk of in-hospital death. Results A total of 106,722 (79%) of patients first mobilised early. The average rate of discharge was 39.2 (95% CI 38.9–39.5) per 1,000 patient days, varying from 43.1 (95% CI 42.8–43.5) among those who mobilised early to 27.0 (95% CI 26.6–27.5) among those who mobilised late, accounting for the competing risk of death. By 30-day postoperatively, the crude and adjusted odds ratios of discharge were 2.36 (95% CI 2.29–2.43) and 2.08 (95% CI 2.00–2.16), respectively, among those who first mobilised early compared with those who mobilised late, accounting for the competing risk of death. Conclusion Early mobilisation led to a 2-fold increase in the adjusted odds of discharge by 30-day postoperatively. We recommend inclusion of mobilisation within 36 h of surgery as a new UK Best Practice Tariff to help reduce delays to mobilisation currently experienced by one-fifth of patients surgically treated for hip fracture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background To guide decision-making about driving ability, some patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) undergo specialist driving assessment. However, decisions about driving safety in most patients need to be made without this definitive test. There is no consensus on what predicts unsafe driving in PD nor a validated prediction tool to guide clinician decision-making and the need to refer for further assessment. Objectives To describe the characteristics of patients with PD assessed at a Driving Mobility Centre and investigate factors that predict driving assessment outcome. Methods Retrospective cohort study of patients with PD assessed between 2012 and 2016. Descriptive analyses and logistic models to determine factors predicting a negative outcome. Results There were 86 assessments of patients with PD. The mean age was 70 years (±9.2), 86% were male, median disease duration 7 years (interquartile range 5–12.5 years) and 59% were referred by the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency. In total, 62% had a negative 'not drive' outcome. The Rookwood Driving Battery (RDB), depth of vision deficit, usual driving frequency, age, duration license held and response time were all predictors in univariable analysis. The RDB was the best predictor of assessment failure, conditional on other variables in a backward stepwise model (odds ratio 1.29; 95% confidence interval 1.05, 1.60; P  = 0.015). Conclusions This is the first study to describe patients with PD undergoing driving assessments in the UK. In this population, RDB performance was the best predictor of outcome. Future prospective studies are required to better determine predictors of driving ability to guide development of prediction tools for implementation into clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background there is little research on how people with dementia are involved in treatment decisions at diagnosis. Objective to measure shared decision making when starting cholinesterase inhibitors, investigate associations with contextual factors and explore satisfaction and experience of the diagnostic meeting. Setting nine UK memory clinics in two geographical locations. Subjects 74 people receiving dementia diagnoses (with 69 companions) and 21 doctors. Methods we video-recorded 74 memory clinic consultations and rated doctor-shared decision making behaviours using the Observing Patient Involvement in Decision Making scale (OPTION-5 scale). Patients and companions rated their satisfaction and experience. Mixed-effects regressions investigated involvement and (i) number people present, meeting length, capacity, cognitive functioning, diagnosis; and (ii) patient/companion satisfaction and consultation experience. Results mean consultation time was 26.7 min. Mean OPTION-5 score was 22.5/100 (Standard Deviation = 17.3). Doctors involved patients in decisions more often when patients had mixed dementia (β = 10.13, 95% confidence interval 1.25–19.0, P = 0.025) and in shorter meetings (β = −0.51, 95% CI −0.87 to −0.15, P = 0.006). Patient and companion satisfaction were high and not associated with whether doctors invited patient involvement. Half of patients and one-third companions were uncertain about the meeting outcome, experienced communication barriers and negative emotions. Conclusions consultations scored low on shared decision making, but were comparable to other settings and were not lower with more cognitively impaired patients. Negative patient and companion experiences reflect the importance of supporting healthcare providers to address patient and companion emotions and need for information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: statin use over the age of 80 years is weakly evidence-based. This study aimed to estimate rates of statin inception and deprescribing by frailty level in people aged 80 years or older. Methods: a cohort of 212,566 participants aged ≥80 years was sampled from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Statin inception was defined as a first-ever prescription in a non-statin user; deprescribing was defined as a last ever statin prescription more than 6 months before the end of participant records. Rates were estimated in a time-to-event framework allowing for mortality as a competing risk. Co-variates were age, gender, frailty category and prevention type. Results: prevalent statin use increased from 2001-5 (9.9%) to 2011-15 (49.3%). Inception of statins in never-users was low overall at 2.4% per year (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2-2.6%) and declined with age. Deprescribing of statins in current users occurred at a rate of 5.6% (95% CI 5.4-5.9%) per year overall and increased with age, reaching 17.8% per year (95% CI 6.7-28.9%) among centenarians. Deprescribing was slightly higher for primary prevention (6.5% per year) than secondary prevention (5.2% per year) indications (P < 0.001). Deprescribing increased with frailty level being 5.0% per year in 'fit' participants and 7.1% in 'severe' frailty (P < 0.001). Conclusions: statin use has increased in the over 80s but deprescribing is common and increases with age and frailty level. These paradoxical findings highlight a need for better evidence to inform statin use and discontinuation for people aged >80 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: kidney function declines in older adults and physical activity levels are low. We investigated whether higher levels of physical activity and lower levels of sedentary behaviour were associated with lower odds of low kidney function in older men. Methods: cross-sectional study of 1,352 men from the British Regional Heart Study, mean (standard deviation) age 78.5 (4.6) year. Physical activity and sedentary behaviour were measured using Actigraph GT3X accelerometers. Kidney function was measured by estimated Glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the chronic kidney disease-EPI creatinine-cystatin equation. Associations between physical (in)activity and kidney function were investigated using regression models. Results: higher levels of physical activity and lower levels of sedentary behaviour were associated with reduced odds ratios (ORs) for lower eGFR (<45 versus ≥45 ml/min per 1.73 m²) after adjustment for covariates. Each additional 1,000 steps, 30 min of light physical activity and 10 min of moderate/vigorous physical activity per day were associated with a lower Objectively measured physical activity and kidney function in older men odds (95% confidence interval (CI)) of a low eGFR; OR 0.81 (0.73, 0.91), OR 0.87 (0.78, 0.97) and OR 0.84 (0.76, 0.92), respectively. Each additional 30 min of sedentary behaviour per day was associated with a higher odds of a low eGFR (1.16 95% CI 1.06, 1.27). Associations between moderate/vigorous physical activity and lower kidney function persisted after adjustment for light physical activity or sedentary behaviour. Conclusion: physical activity is associated with kidney function in older men and could be of public health importance in this group who are at increased risk of poor kidney function and low physical activity. More evidence is needed on whether the association is causal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: recognition of prevalent delirium and prediction of incident delirium may be difficult at first assessment. We therefore aimed to validate a pragmatic delirium susceptibility (for any, prevalent and incident delirium) score for use in front-line clinical practice in a consecutive cohort of older acute medicine patients. Methods: consecutive patients aged ≥65 years over two 8-week periods (2010-12) were screened prospectively for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), and delirium was diagnosed using the DSM IV criteria. The delirium susceptibility score was the sum of weighted risk factors derived using pooled data from UK-NICE guidelines: age >80 = 2, cognitive impairment (cognitive score below cut-off/dementia) = 2, severe illness (systemic inflammatory response syndrome) = 1, infection = 1, visual impairment = 1. Score reliability was determined by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Results: among 308 consecutive patients aged ≥65 years (mean age/SD = 81/8 years, 164 (54%) female), AUC was 0.78 (95% CI 0.71-0.84) for any delirium; 0.71 (0.64-0.79), for prevalent delirium; 0.81 (0.70-0.92), for incident delirium; odds ratios (ORs) for risk score 5-7 versus <2 were 17.9 (5.4-60.0), P < 0.0001 for any delirium, 8.1 (2.2-29.7), P = 0.002 for prevalent delirium, and 25.0 (3.0-208.9) P = 0.003 for incident delirium, with corresponding relative risks of 5.4, 4.7 and 13. Higher risk scores were associated with frailty markers, increased care needs and poor outcomes. Conclusions: the externally derived delirium susceptibility score reliably identified prevalent and incident delirium using clinical data routinely available at initial patient assessment and might therefore aid recognition of vulnerability in acute medical admissions early in the acute care pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: an increased mortality rate among patients admitted to hospital at weekends has been found in many studies, and this 'weekend effect' has been used to justify major health service reorganisation. Most studies have used routine administrative data to adjust for potential confounding factors, and are unable to measure differences in illness severity due to the tendency of patients with milder symptoms to stay home at weekends. We set out to estimate the importance of such unmeasured 'confounding by severity', using data from a hospital stroke register. Methods: all suspected acute stroke admissions in Gateshead were prospectively registered over a period of 14.3 years, including information on premorbid factors, measures of stroke severity and survival to hospital discharge. We examined whether each factor differed between weekday and weekend admissions, then used logistic regression to estimate the main contributors to variation in mortality rates. Results: stroke severity, measured by the Scandinavian Stroke Scale (SSS), was significantly greater among weekend admissions and strongly associated with mortality, and after adjustment for SSS score in logistic regression, the weekend effect completely disappeared. By contrast, most indicators of pre-stroke function, comorbidity or stroke type did not differ between weekday and weekend admissions, although some of them had prognostic significance. Conclusions: the sorts of factors measurable in administrative databases only account for a small part of the prognostically important differences in case-mix between weekday and weekend stroke admissions. While increasing weekend staffing might improve adherence to care standards, evidence that it could save lives is unreliable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: although melatonin prescribing in England has been increasing in recent years, there have been no large scale studies on the safety of melatonin compared to other medical treatments for insomnia. The primary aim of this study was to examine the association between exposure to melatonin, hypnotic benzodiazepines (temazepam, nitrazepam) or Z-drugs (zolpidem, zopiclone) and fracture risk. Design: retrospective cohort study. Setting: 309 general practices contributing to The Health Improvement Network (THIN) between 2008 and 2013. Participants: 1,377 patients aged 45 years and older prescribed melatonin; 880 patients prescribed hypnotic benzodiazepines; 1,148 patients prescribed Z-drugs and 2,752 unexposed controls matched by age, gender and practice. Main outcome: fracture following prescription of study drugs ascertained from practice records. Results: the unadjusted hazard ratios for fracture during the follow-up period were 1.90 (95% CI 1.41-2.57) for melatonin, 1.70 (95% CI 1.18-2.46) for hypnotic benzodiazepines and 2.03 (95% CI 1.45-2.84) for Z-drugs. After adjustment for 26 cov-ariates, the hazard ratios were 1.44 (95% CI 1.01-2.04) for melatonin, 1.26 (95% CI 0.82-1.92) for hypnotic benzodiazepines and 1.52 (95% CI 1.04-2.23) for Z-drugs. Only patients with three or more melatonin prescriptions had elevated risk. The mean time to fracture was 1.04 years and there was no significant difference in mean time to fracture between the cohorts. Conclusions: in this large cohort of patients attending UK primary care, prescriptions for melatonin and Z-drugs were associated with a significantly increased risk of fracture. With the use of melatonin increasing steadily overtime, this study adds to the literature on the safety profile of this drug. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: the apolipoprotein (APOE) e4 locus is a genetic risk factor for dementia. Carriers ofthe e4 allele may be more vulnerable to conditions that are independent risk factors for cognitive decline, such as cardiometabolic diseases. Objective: we tested whether any association with APOE e4 status on cognitive ability was larger in older ages or in those with cardiometabolic diseases. Subjects: UK Biobank includes over 500,000 middle- and older aged adults who have undergone detailed medical and cognitive phenotypic assessment. Around 150,000 currently have genetic data. We examined 111,739 participants with complete genetic and cognitive data. Methods: baseline cognitive data relating to information processing speed, memory and reasoning were used. We tested for interactions with age and with the presence versus absence of type 2 diabetes (T2D), coronary artery disease (CAD) and hypertension. Results: in several instances, APOE e4 dosage interacted with older age and disease presence to affect cognitive scores. When adjusted for potentially confounding variables, there was no APOE e4 effect on the outcome variables. Conclusions: future research in large independent cohorts should continue to investigate this important question, which has potential implications for aetiology related to dementia and cognitive impairment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: delirium and dementia are common in the general hospital, being present in nearly 50% of older unselected admissions to hospital. Cognitive impairment is a risk factor for delirium, but the prevalence of previously undiagnosed cognitive impairment (dementia or mild cognitive impairment) in patients with delirium is unknown. Methods: we performed a prospective cohort study of people over 70 years admitted to hospital with delirium to establish the prevalence of previously unrecognised prior cognitive impairment. Delirium was diagnosed at baseline using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV-TR). Mild cognitive impairment and dementia were diagnosed 3 months following recruitment in survivors using the International Working Group on Mild Cognitive Impairment criteria and DSM- IV criteria, respectively. Results: delirium was identified in 17.9% of older patients, and 82 participants with delirium were assessed at 3 months: 5 (6%) had persistent delirium, 14 (17%) had mild cognitive impairment and 47 (57%) had dementia. In 17 participants with prior dementia and 14 with prior mild cognitive impairment, the diagnosis had been unrecognised, amounting to 31/82 (38%) of all patients with delirium having some form of previously undiagnosed cognitive impairment. Conclusion: given that over 1/3 of older patients with delirium were found to have a previously undiagnosed cognitive impairment, the development and evaluation of services to follow-up and manage patients with delirium are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: UK National Dementia Strategies prioritise fair access to dementia treatments for the whole population. We investigated for the first time inequalities in NHS national dementia prescribing and how they have varied between UK countries and over time. Method: we investigated the association between Townsend deprivation score and anti-dementia drug prescribing in 77,045 dementia patients from UK primary care records from 2002 to 2013. Results: we included 77,045 patients with recorded dementia diagnosis or anti-dementia drug prescription. Least deprived patients were 25% more likely to be initiated on anti-dementia drugs than the most deprived (adjusted incidence rate ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.19-1.31). This was driven by data from English practices where prescribing rates were consistently lower in more deprived patients compared with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, where prescribing was not related to deprivation quintile. Compared with English practices, anti-dementia medication was prescribed more often in Northern Irish (1.81, 1.41-2.34) and less in Welsh practices (0.68, 0.55-0.82), with a trend towards more prescribing in Scottish practices (1.14, 0.98-1.32). Drug initiation rates were also higher in younger people and men. Conclusion: four years after the English National Dementia Strategy, there is no evidence that the Strategy's key objective of reducing treatment inequalities is being achieved. Higher overall anti-dementia drug prescribing in Scottish and Northern Irish practices, and differing clinical guidelines in Scotland from other UK countries might explain greater equality in prescribing in these countries. Strategies to offer treatment to more deprived people with dementia in England are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: the objective of the study was to estimate and compare the incidence rates of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke and seizure among cohorts with and without Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. Methods: we conducted a retrospective cohort study using electronic medical records (EMRs) from primary care practices that participated in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) in the United Kingdom from 1 January 1990 to 31 July 2009. For each AD-dementia patient, we selected one general population control patient without AD-dementia matched to one AD-dementia patient on year of birth, sex and physician practice. Findings: the AD-dementia cohorts were 68% female and averaged 80 years of age at the start of follow-up. Populations for analysis included 19,902 AD-dementia and matched non-AD-dementia patients with no history of stroke at baseline in which 790 incident cases of stroke occurred, and similarly, 22,084 AD-dementia and matched patients with no history of seizure at baseline in which 286 cases of seizure occurred. After adjusting for risk factors for each outcome, hazard ratios comparing AD-dementia with non-AD-dementia patients indicated higher rates among AD-dementia patients for stroke (HR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.11, 1.50) and seizure (HR = 5.31, 95% CI 3.97, 7.10). For stroke and seizure, the incidence rate ratios comparing AD-dementia patients with non-AD-dementia controls were greatest for the younger age groups. AD-dementia was observed to be a risk factor for both haemorrhagic stroke and seizures. Increasing age was associated with a decrease in relative risk and an increase in absolute risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: advance care planning (ACP) is a process to establish an individual's preference for care in the future; few UK studies have been conducted to ascertain public attitudes towards ACP. Objective: the aim of this study was to assess the attitudes of older people in East Midlands through the development and administration of a survey. Design: the survey questionnaire was developed on the basis of a literature review, exploratory focus groups with older adults and expert advisor input. The final questions were then re-tested with lay volunteers. Setting: thirteen general practices were enrolled to send out surveys to potential participants aged 65 or older. There were no additional inclusion or exclusion criteria for participants. Methods: simple descriptive statistics were used to describe the responses and regression analyses were used to evaluate which items predicted responses to key outcomes. Results: of the 5,375 (34%) community-dwelling older peoples, 1,823 returned questionnaires. Seventeen per cent of respondents had prepared an ACP document; of whom, 4% had completed an Advance Decision to Refuse Treatment (ADRT). Five per cent of respondents stated that they had been offered an opportunity to talk about ACP. Predictors of completing an ACP document included: being offered the opportunity to discuss ACP, older age, better physical function and male gender. Levels of trust were higher for families than for professionals. One-third of the respondents would be interested in talking about ACP if sessions were available. Conclusion: although a third of the respondents were in favour of discussing ACP if the opportunity was available with their GP, only a relative minority (17%) had actively engaged. Preferences were for informal discussions with family rather than professionals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: to develop and validate a prediction model for incident locomotor disability after 7 years in older adults.Setting: prospective British cohort studies: British Women's Heart and Health Study (BWHHS) for development and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) for validation.Subjects: community-dwelling older adults.Methods: multivariable logistic regression models after selection of predictors with backward elimination. Model performance was assessed using metrics of discrimination and calibration. Models were internally and externally validated.Results: locomotor disability was reported in BWHHS by 861 of 1,786 (48%) women after 7 years. Age, a history of arthritis and low physical activity levels were the most important predictors of locomotor disability. Models using routine measures as predictors had satisfactory calibration and discrimination (c-index 0.73). Addition of 31 blood markers did not increase the predictive performance. External validation in ELSA showed reduced discrimination (c-index 0.65) and an underestimation of disability risks. A web-based calculator for locomotor disability is available (http://www.sealedenvelope.com/trials/bwhhsmodel/).Conclusions: we developed and externally validated a prediction model for incident locomotor disability in older adults based on routine measures available to general practitioners, patients and public health workers, and showed an adequate discrimination. Addition of blood markers from major biological pathways did not improve the performance of the model. Further replication in additional data sets may lead to further enhancement of the current model. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: studies have raised concerns that medications with anticholinergic property have potential adverse effects on health outcomes.Objectives: the objective of this study is to examine the prospective relationships between total anticholinergic burden (ACB) from medications and mortality, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a general population.Design: observational study.Setting: community cohort.Subjects: we examined data collected from 21,636 men and women without cancer at the baseline who participated in a baseline survey 1993–97 in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk. They were followed until 2009/11.Methods: we performed Cox-proportional hazards models to determine the associations between total ACB and the subsequent risk of all-cause mortality and incident CVD during the follow-up.Results: there were a total of 4,342 people died and 7,328 had an incident CVD during the study follow-up (total person years = 322,321 years for mortality and 244,119 years for CVD event). Compared with people with no anticholinergic burden (ACB = 0), people with total ACB ≥3 from medications had hazards ratios of 1.83 (1.53, 2.20) and 2.17 (1.87, 2.52) for mortality and CVD incidence outcomes, respectively, after adjusting for potential confounders. Repeating the analyses after excluding people with prevalent illnesses, and events occurring within the first 2 years of follow-up, only slightly attenuated the results.Conclusion: there appear to be a class effect as well as dose–response relationship between the ACB and both outcomes. Future research should focus on understanding the relationship between ACB and mortality, and cardiovascular disease and possibly minimising ACB load where feasible. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: evidence on the long-term natural history, predictors and outcomes of anxiety after stroke is insufficient to inform effective interventions. This study estimates within 10 years of stroke: (i) the incidence, cumulative incidence, prevalence, and time of onset of anxiety. (ii) Predictors of anxiety and its association with depression. (iii) The association between anxiety 3 months after stroke and mortality, stroke recurrence, disability, cognitive impairment and quality of life (QoL) at follow-up.Methods: data from the South London Stroke Register (1995–2010). Patients were assessed at the time of the stroke, at 3 months, 1 year and then annually for up to 10 years. Baseline data included socio-demographics and stroke severity. Follow-up data included assessments for anxiety and depression (hospital anxiety and depression scale), disability, cognition and QoL. Multivariate regression was used to investigate predictors and associated outcomes of anxiety.Results: incidence of anxiety up to 10 years ranged from 17 to 24%. Cumulative incidence: 57%. Prevalence range: 32–38%. Amongst patients with anxiety, 58% were anxious at 3 months. 57–73% of patients with anxiety had co-morbid depression. Predictors of anxiety included age under 65, female gender, inability to work, depression treatment, smoking and stroke severity. Anxiety at 3 months was associated with lower QoL at follow-up.Conclusions: anxiety is a frequent problem affecting stroke survivors in the long term. Clinicians should pay attention to patients at risk of anxiety since it is associated with lower QoL and depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: home-based telecare (TC) is utilised to manage risks of independent living and provide prompt emergency responses. This study examined the effect of TC on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), anxiety and depressive symptoms over 12 months in patients receiving social care.Design: a study of participant-reported outcomes [the Whole Systems Demonstrator (WSD) Telecare Questionnaire Study; baseline n = 1,189] was nested in a pragmatic cluster-randomised trial of TC (the WSD Telecare trial), held across three English Local Authorities. General practice (GP) was the unit of randomisation and TC was compared with usual care (UC).Methods: participant-reported outcome measures were collected at baseline, short-term (4 months) and long-term (12 months) follow-up, assessing generic HRQoL, anxiety and depressive symptoms. Primary intention-to-treat analyses tested treatment effectiveness and were conducted using multilevel models to control for GP clustering and covariates for participants who completed questionnaire measures at baseline assessment plus at least one other assessment (n = 873).Results: analyses found significant differences between TC and UC on Short Form-12 mental component scores (P < 0.05), with parameter estimates indicating being a member of the TC trial-arm increases mental component scores (UC-adjusted mean = 40.52; TC-adjusted mean = 43.69). Additional significant analyses revealed, time effects on EQ5D (decreasing over time) and depressive symptoms (increasing over time).Conclusions: TC potentially contributes to the amelioration in the decline in users’ mental HRQoL over a 12-month period. TC may not transform the lives of its users, but it may afford small relative benefits on some psychological and HRQOL outcomes relative to users who only receive UC.International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Register: ISRCTN 43002091. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: the mortality is high in acutely ill oldest old patients. Understanding the prognostic factors which influence mortality will help clinicians make appropriate management decisions.Methods: we analysed prospective mortality audit data (November 2008 to January 2009) to identify variables associated with in-patient mortality in oldest old. We selected those with P < 0.10 from univariate analysis and determined at which cut-point they served as the strongest predictor of mortality. Using these cut-off points, we constructed multivariate logistic regression models. A 5-point score was derived from cut-off points which were significantly associated with mortality tested in a smaller independent re-audit sample conducted in October 2011.Results: a total of 405 patients (mean 93.5 ± 2.7 years) were included in the study. The mean length of stay was 18.5 ± 42.4 days and 13.8% died as in-patients. Variables (cut-off values) found to be significantly associated with in-patient mortality were admission sodium (>145 mmol/l), urea (≥14 mmol/l), respiratory rate (>20/min) and shock index (>1.0): creating a 5-point score (NaURSE: NaURS in the Elderly). The crude mortality rates were 9.5, 19.9, 34.4, 66.7, and 100% for scores 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Using the cut-off point of ≥2, the NaURSE score has a specificity of 87% (83.1–90.3) and sensitivity of 39% (28.5–50.0), with an AUC value of 0.69 (0.63–0.76). An external independent validation study (n = 121) showed similar results.Conclusions: the NaURSE score may be particularly useful in identifying oldest old who are likely to die in that admission to guide appropriate care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: circulating measures of inflammatory markers, such as C-reactive protein (CRP) have been associated with an increased risk of future cognitive decline. However, the nature of the relationship among the very old (>75 years) is unclear. Cross-sectional evidence suggests that elevated CRP may even be protective in this age group. This study examines these associations longitudinally.Methods: logistic regression was used to investigate the association between CRP and drop in cognitive performance (≥3 point change on the Mini-Mental State Examination) over a 4-year period in a population of 266 people, mean age 77 years.Results: increased levels of CRP were associated with a decreased risk of a drop in cognitive performance; however, this association was only seen in those without an APOE e4 allele [odds ratio of decline per unit increase in ln(CRP) 0.57, P = 0.04]. The magnitude of the finding remained consistent after adjustment for cardiovascular confounders (smoking, drinking, MI, stroke, diabetes, education, medication and blood pressure). For those with an e4 allele, the relationship with longitudinal cognitive decline was neither statistically significant nor in a consistent direction after controlling for acute inflammation.Conclusions: this study strengthens previous cross-sectional findings and shows elevated levels of CRP to be linked to a decreased risk of longitudinal cognitive decline in the very old. However, as with prior analyses, this was only observed in those not carrying an APOE e4 allele. Future work on larger APOE e4 allele carrying samples is required to determine the nature of the association in this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: unplanned hospital admissions of older patients continue to attract the attention of UK policymakers, advisors and media. Reducing the number and length of stay (LOS) of these admissions has the potential to save NHS substantial costs while reducing iatrogenic risks. Some NHS trusts have introduced geriatric admission-avoidance systems, but evidence of their effectiveness is lacking. In September 2010, The Royal Free Hospital and Haverstock Healthcare Ltd, a GP provider organisation, introduced an admission-avoidance system for patients aged 70 or over: the Triage and Rapid Elderly Assessment Team (TREAT).Objective: to measure the effect of TREAT on LOS and the rate of same-day discharges (an inverse measure of admission rate).Setting: TREAT was based in the Accident and Emergency (A&E) department of the Royal Free Hospital, London.Design: a pre- and post-retrospective cohort study comparing the 5,416 emergency geriatric admissions in the 12 months preceding the introduction of TREAT with the 5,370 emergency geriatric admissions in the 12 months following. Emergency geriatric admissions were divided into TREAT-matching and residual (non-matching) cohorts from hospital provider spell records, using the Healthcare Resource Group (HRG), treatment function and patient classification of the TREAT admissions. LOS and same-day discharge rates were measured over the pre- and post-TREAT periods: for the TREAT-matching cohort; for the residual cohort of emergency geriatric admissions; and for all emergency geriatric admissions.Intervention: TREAT is a system of care combining early Accident and Emergency (A&E)-based senior doctor review, Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), therapist assessment and supported discharge; post-discharge supported recovery; and a rapid access geriatric ‘hot-clinic’. TREAT was supported by a post-acute care enablement (PACE) team, providing short-term nursing support immediately following discharge.Results: TREAT accepted 593 geriatric admissions over a 12-month period, of which 32.04% were discharged on the day of admission. The mean LOS was 4.41 days, and the median LOS was 1 day. After the introduction of TREAT, mean LOS reduced by 18.16% (1.78 days, P < 0.001) for TREAT-matching admissions; by 11.65% (1.13 days, P < 0.001) for all emergency geriatric admissions; and by 1.08% (0.11 days, P = 0.065) for the residual population. Over the same period, the percentage of admissions resulting in same-day discharges increased from 12.26 to 16.23% (OR: 1.386, 95% CI: 1.203–1.597, P < 0.001) for TREAT-matching admissions, but for the residual population fell from 15.01 to 9.77% (OR: 0.613, P < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.737–0.509).Conclusions: TREAT appears to have reduced avoidable emergency geriatric admissions, and to have shortened LOS for all emergency geriatric admissions. It aims to address the King's Fund's call for an ‘overall system of care rather than lots of discrete processes’ through ‘better design and co-ordination of services following the needs of older people’. The ease of set-up lends itself to replication and testing in clinical and cost-effectiveness studies. Further studies are needed to measure the impact of TREAT on re-admission rates, patient outcomes and satisfaction. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: living alone in later life has been linked to psychological distress but less is known about the role of the transition into living alone and the role of social and material resources.Methods: a total of 21,535 person-years of data from 4,587 participants of the British Household Panel Survey aged 65+ are analysed. Participants provide a maximum 6 years' data (t0−t5), with trajectories of living arrangements classified as: consistently partnered/ with children/alone; transition from partnered to alone/with children to alone. General Health Questionnaire (GHQ)-12 caseness (score >3) is investigated using multi-level logistic regression, controlling for sex, age, activities of daily living, social and material resources.Results: after a transition from partnered at t0 to alone at t1, the odds for GHQ-12 caseness increased substantially, but by t3 returned to baseline levels. The odds for caseness at t0 were highest for those changing from living with a child at t0 to living alone at t1 but declined following the transition to living alone. None of the covariates explained these associations. Living consistently alone did confer increased odds for caseness.Conclusions: living alone in later life is not in itself a strong risk factor for psychological distress. The effects of transitions to living alone are dependent on the preceding living arrangement and are independent of social and material resources. This advocates a longitudinal approach, allowing identification of respondents' location along trajectories of living arrangements. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: mortality in UK care homes is not well described.Objective: to describe 1-year mortality and predictors in older care home residents compared with community residents.Method: cohort study using the THIN primary care database with 9,772 care home and 354,306 community residents aged 65–104 years in 293 English and Welsh general practices in 2009.Results: a total of 2,558 (26.2%) care home and 11,602 (3.3%) community residents died within 1 year. The age and sex standardised mortality ratio for nursing homes was 419 (95% CI: 396–442) and for residential homes was 284 (266–302). Age-related increases in mortality were less marked in care homes than community. Comorbidities and identification as inappropriate for chronic disease management targets predicted mortality in both settings, but associations were weaker in care homes. The number of drug classes prescribed and primary care contact were the strongest clinical predictors of mortality in care homes.Conclusions: older care home residents experience high mortality. Age and diagnostic characteristics are weaker predictors of risk of death within care homes than the community. Measures of primary care utilisation may be useful proxies for frailty and improve difficult end of life care decisions in care homes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: identification of patients at risk of prolonged hospital stay allows staff to target interventions, provide informed prognosis and manage healthcare resources. Admission grip strength is associated with discharge outcomes in acute hospital settings.Objective: to explore the relationship between grip strength and length of stay in older rehabilitation in-patients.Design: single-centre prospective cohort study.Setting: community hospital rehabilitation ward.Subjects: one hundred and ten patients aged 70 years and over.Methods: data on age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), co-morbidities, medication, residence, grip strength, physical function, cognitive function, frailty, falls, discharge destination and length of stay were recorded.Results: higher grip strength was associated with reduced length of stay, characterised by an increased likelihood of discharge to usual residence among male rehabilitation in-patients (hazard ratio 1.09 (95% confidence interval 1.01, 1.17) per kilo increase in grip strength, P = 0.02) after adjustment for age and size.Conclusions: this is the first prospective study to show that stronger grip strength, particularly among male in-patients, is associated with a shorter length of stay in a rehabilitation ward. This is important because it demonstrates that grip strength can be discriminatory among frailer people. Further research into the clinical applications of grip strength measurement in rehabilitation settings is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]