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Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of fatal train accident rates and trends on Europe''s main line railways from 1980 to 2009. The paper uses a new set of data for the European Union together with Norway and Switzerland, assembled partly under the auspices of the European Railway Agency and partly on the author''s own account. The estimated overall trend in the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per train-kilometre is −6.3% per year from 1990 to 2009, with a 95% confidence interval of −8.7% to −3.9%. The estimated accident rate in 2009 is 1.35 fatal collisions or derailments per billion train-kilometres, giving an estimated mean number of fatal accidents in 2009 of 6.0. The overall number of fatalities per fatal accident in 1990–2009 is 4.10, with no apparent long term change over time, giving an estimated mean of 24.6 fatalities per year in train collisions and derailments in 2009. There are statistically significant differences in the fatal train accident rates and trends between the different European countries, although the estimates of the rates and trends for many individual countries have wide confidence limits. The distribution of broad causes of accidents appears to have remained unchanged over the long term, so that safety improvements appear to have been across the board, and not focused on any specific cause. The most frequent cause of fatal train collisions and derailments is signals passed at danger. In contrast to fatal train collisions and derailments, the rate per train-kilometre of serious accidents at level crossings remained unchanged in 1990–2009. The immediate causes of most of the serious level crossing accidents are errors or violations by road users. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Fatal train accidents per train-kilometre in Europe fell at the rate of 6% per year from 1990 until 2019. • There were 0.85 fatal accidents per billion train-kilometres in 2019. • There was a mean of 4.2 fatalities per fatal accident in 1990–2019. • the proportion of accidents caused by signals passed at danger fell from 40 % in the 1990s to 21 % in the 2010s. This may be due to the increasing deployment of train protection systems. This paper presents an analysis of fatal train accident rates and trends on Europe's main line railways from 1990–2019. It is a sequel to the paper Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980–2009 (Evans (2011), which covers the three decades 1980–2009. The present paper discards the data for the 1980s, but adds the data for 2010−2019. The data cover the 28 countries of the European Union as in 2019, together with Norway and Switzerland. The source of the recent data is largely the European Union Agency for Railways. The estimated overall trend in the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per train-kilometre was –5.6 % per year from 1990–2019, with a 95 % confidence interval of –7.1 % to -4.2 %. The estimated accident rate in 2019 was 0.85 fatal collisions or derailments per billion train-kilometres, which represents a fall of 78 % since 1990. This gives an estimated mean number of fatal accidents in Europe in 2019 of 3.89. The data and results for 2010−2019 closely match the extrapolation of the results for 1990−2009, so that in 2009 extrapolation would have given a good forward projection for 2019. By the same argument this paper gives a forward projection of the mean number of accidents in 2029 of 2.12, assuming no change in train-kilometres, or pro-rata changes with changes in train-kilometres. The paper investigates the causes of accidents. A notable finding is that the proportion of accidents caused by signals passed at danger (SPADs) fell from 40 % in 1990−1999 to 21 % in 2010−2019. This is probably due to the increasing deployment of train protection systems. The number of fatalities in individual accidents has a skew distribution: most accidents have a small number of fatalities, but a few have a large number. The overall observed number of fatalities per accident is 4.23, and there is no indication that this mean changes with time. This implies that the mean number of fatalities per year has the same downward trend of 5.6 % per year as the mean number of accidents per year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]