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Landscape-scale approaches to conservation stem largely from the classic ideas of reserve design: encouraging bigger and more sites, enhancing connectivity among sites, and improving habitat quality. Trade-offs are imposed between these four strategies by the limited resources and opportunities available for conservation programmes, including the establishment and management of protected areas, and wildlife-friendly farming and forestry. Although debate regarding trade-offs between the size, number, connectivity and quality of protected areas was prevalent in the 1970-1990s, the implications of the same trade-offs for ongoing conservation responses to threats from accelerating environmental change have rarely been addressed. Here, we reassess the implications of reserve design theory for landscape-scale conservation, and present a blueprint to help practitioners to prioritise among the four strategies. We consider the new perspectives placed on landscape-scale conservation programmes by twenty-first century pressures including climate change, invasive species and the need to marry food security with biodiversity conservation. A framework of the situations under which available theory and evidence recommend that each of the four strategies be prioritized is provided, seeking to increase the clarity required for urgent conservation decision-making.

This study investigates the effects of climatic variations and extremes captured by variability in temperature, precipitation, and incidents of typhoons on aggregate inter-provincial migration within the Philippines using panel data. Our results indicate that a rise in temperature and to some extent increased typhoon activity increase outmigration, while precipitation does not have a consistent, significant effect. We also find that temperature and typhoons have significant negative effects on rice yields, a proxy for agricultural productivity, and generate more outmigration from provinces that are more agriculturally dependent and have a larger share of rural population. Finally, migration decisions of males, younger individuals, and those with higher levels of education are more sensitive to rising temperature and typhoons. We conclude that temperature increase and to some extent typhoon activities promote migration, potentially through their negative effect on crop yields. The migration responses of males, more educated, and younger individuals are more sensitive to these climatic impacts.

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00442-011-2007-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

Central and semiarid north-eastern Asia was subject to twentieth century warming far above the global average. Since forests of this region occur at their drought limit, they are particularly vulnerable to climate change. We studied the regional variations of temperature and precipitation trends and their effects on tree growth and forest regeneration in Mongolia. Tree-ring series from more than 2,300 trees of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) collected in four regions of Mongolia’s forest zone were analyzed and related to available weather data. Climate trends underlie a remarkable regional variation leading to contrasting responses of tree growth in taiga forests even within the same mountain system. Within a distance of a few hundred kilometers (140–490 km), areas with recently reduced growth and regeneration of larch alternated with regions where these parameters remained constant or even increased. Reduced productivity could be correlated with increasing summer temperatures and decreasing precipitation; improved growth conditions were found at increasing precipitation, but constant summer temperatures. An effect of increasing winter temperatures on tree-ring width or forest regeneration was not detectable. Since declines of productivity and regeneration are more widespread in the Mongolian taiga than the opposite trend, a net loss of forests is likely to occur in the future, as strong increases in temperature and regionally differing changes in precipitation are predicted for the twenty-first century. peerReviewed

The Valley of Lakes is approximately a 500-km elongate depression in Central Mongolia, where Eocene to Miocene continental sediments are long known for their outstanding fossil richness. The palaeontological record of this region is an exceptional witness for the evolution of mammalian communities during the Cenozoic global cooling and regional aridification. In order to precisely elucidate the climatic evolution of the region, we studied the mostly siliciclastic sediments with several levels of paleosols for their sedimentology, mineralogy, major and trace element composition and δ13C and δ18O composition. The obtained results show that temperate hydrothermal fluids induced a strong illitization of the fluvial and lacustrine sediments. This finding contradicts the current conceptual view that the fine fraction of the sediments is of aeolian origin. Moreover, the diagenetic growth of illite resulted in a strong overprinting of the sediments and, subsequently, largely disturbed the pristine mineralogical and geochemical composition of the sediments that could have carried any palaeo-climatic information. An exception is the δ13C (and δ18O) isotope values of authigenic carbonate found in calcrete horizons that still record the ambient climatic conditions prevailing during paleosol formation. Our novel δ13C and δ18O record suggests an early Oligocene aridification in Central Asia at ∼31 Ma, whereas the Oligocene glacial maximum shows no increase in aridification. A second, regional-scale aridification occurs at ~25 Ma and corresponds to a late Oligocene marked mammalian turnover in the Valley of Lakes sediments.

Transdisciplinary knowledge integration and cross-scale management remain challenges in coastal management after several decades of research and experience with integrated and sustainable coastal management. The aim of this paper is to identify requirements for knowledge integration and development of multi-scale approaches to coastal management through reviewing and re-analysing three Swedish-European research projects: the SUCOZOMA project about sustainable coastal zone management, the FRAP project about conflicts between coastal fishery and species protection, and the SECOA project about solutions to contrasts in coastal metropolitan areas. The strategy of adaptive governance is considered in the light of its ability to assess knowledge requirements for sustainable resource management under conditions of climate change.

Open Access., Recent trends in climate modeling find in GRID computing a powerful way to achieve results by sharing geographically distributed computing and storage resources. In particular, ensemble prediction experiments are based on the generation of multiple model simulations to explore, statistically, the existing uncertainties in weather and climate forecast. In this paper, we present a GRID application consisting of a state-of-the-art climate model. The main goal of the application is to provide a tool that can be used by a climate researcher to run ensemble-based predictions on the GRID for sensitivity studies. One of the main duties of this tool is the management of a workflow involving long-term jobs and data management in a user-friendly way. In this paper we show that, due to weaknesses of current GRID middleware, this management is complex task. Those weaknesses made necessary the development of a robust workflow adapted to the requirements of the climate application. As an illustrative scientific challenge, the application is applied to study the El Niño phenomenon, by simulating an El Niño year with different forcing conditions and analyzing the precipitation response over south-American countries subject to flooding risk. © Springer-Verlag 2009., This work has been partially funded by the EELA project under the 6th Framework Program of the European Commission (contract no. 026409) and the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science through the Juan de la Cierva program.

Semi-arid river basins often rely on reservoirs for water supply. Small reservoirs may impact on large-scale water availability both by enhancing availability in a distributed sense and by subtracting water for large downstream user communities, e.g. served by large reservoirs. Both of these impacts of small reservoirs are subject to climate change. Using a case-study on North-East Brazil, this paper shows that climate change impacts on water availability may be severe, and impacts on distributed water availability from small reservoirs may exceed impacts on centralised water availability from large reservoirs. Next, the paper shows that the effect of small reservoirs on water availability from large reservoirs may be significant, and increase both in relative and absolute sense under unfavourable climate change.

This paper considers aspects of environmental social science research in the UK and explores an obvious bias towards the development of instruments to manage demand as an adaptation to climate change, and consequently the predominance of interest in the customer from a demand-side perspective. In the case of water, this has resulted in an inappropriate mixing of individualist research methods designed to measure public perceptions of risk and water-based practices, with mass consumption data that cannot be specifically linked to the individual. This mixing has a tendency to reinforce a long-standing blame culture that drives interest in the development of behaviour change initiatives while the relatively unchallenged hydraulic mission to provide safe drinking water and sanitation progresses. With this in mind this paper reviews examples of water use research from California, Australia, and the UK and highlights the more effective routes to understanding water customers and developing behaviour change initiatives that utilise stages of change models and grounded techniques incorporating qualitative and quantitative data from individual sources. A secondary aim is to argue for re-framing the relations between various actors in a changing climate to allow the development of new policy approaches, learning, and openness, from industry, regulators, and customers, based on new theories from the field.

This paper examines climate change adaptation and gender issues through an application of a feminist intersectional approach. This approach permits the identification of diverse adaptation responses arising from the existence of multiple and fragmented dimensions of identity (including gender) that intersect with power relations to shape situation-specific interactions between farmers and ecosystems. Based on results from contrasting research cases in Bihar and Uttarakhand, India, this paper demonstrates, inter alia, that there are geographically determined gendered preferences and adoption strategies regarding adaptation options and that these are influenced by the socio-ecological context and institutional dynamics. Intersecting identities, such as caste, wealth, age and gender, influence decisions and reveal power dynamics and negotiation within the household and the community, as well as barriers to adaptation among groups. Overall, the findings suggest that a feminist intersectional approach does appear to be useful and worth further exploration in the context of climate change adaptation. In particular, future research could benefit from more emphasis on a nuanced analysis of the intra-gender differences that shape adaptive capacity to climate change. This paper examines climate change adaptation and gender issues through an application of a feminist intersectional approach. This approach permits the identification of diverse adaptation responses arising from the existence of multiple and fragmented dimensions of identity (including gender) that intersect with power relations to shape situation-specific interactions between farmers and ecosystems. Based on results from contrasting research cases in Bihar and Uttarakhand, India, this paper demonstrates, inter alia, that there are geographically determined gendered preferences and adoption strategies regarding adaptation options and that these are influenced by the socio-ecological context and institutional dynamics. Intersecting identities, such as caste, wealth, age and gender, influence decisions and reveal power dynamics and negotiation within the household and the community, as well as barriers to adaptation among groups. Overall, the findings suggest that a feminist intersectional approach does appear to be useful and worth further exploration in the context of climate change adaptation. In particular, future research could benefit from more emphasis on a nuanced analysis of the intra-gender differences that shape adaptive capacity to climate change. © 2016, The Author(s).

The effectiveness of climate adaptation policies in one sector can be compromised or aided by policies developed in another sector. When the focus of adaptation is a single geographical region, this potential for interaction between sectoral policies is heightened due to spatial, political and functional proximities. This paper analyses interactions within three suites of climate adaptation options developed for Australia’s ‘South-East Queensland’ region relating to: (1) wetland migration, coastal infrastructure and planned retreat; (2) urban water security and energy demand; and (3) terrestrial biodiversity and agricultural viability. Using the concept of ‘institutional interplay’ to structure a process of dialogue amongst researchers, we identify a number of critical implementation requirements for successful regional-scale adaptation. There is a need for greater focus on neighbourhood or sub-regional scales of policy design and intervention, particularly for the coordination of adapted infrastructure and services to households. Policy-makers must also be more explicit in considering broader drivers of land-use change and economic adjustment likely to impact on proposed adaptations. In considering these issues, our paper also demonstrates a process for conducting cross-sectoral syntheses that can be employed in other regional-scale adaptation studies.

This paper investigates the effectiveness of traffic management tools, includ- ing traffic signal control and en-route navigation provided by variable message signs (VMS), in reducing traffic congestion and associated emissions of CO2, NOx, and black carbon. The latter is among the most significant contributors of climate change, and is associated with many serious health problems. This study combines traffic microsimulation (S-Paramics) with emission modeling (AIRE) to simulate and predict the impacts of different traffic management measures on a number traffic and environmental Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) assessed at different spatial levels. Simulation results for a real road network located in West Glasgow suggest that these traffic management tools can bring a reduction in travel delay and BC emission respectively by up to 6 % and 3 % network wide. The improvement at local levels such as junctions or corridors can be more significant. However, our results also show that the potential benefits of such interventions are strongly dependent on a number of factors, including dynamic demand profile, VMS compliance rate, and fleet composition. Extensive discussion based on the simulation results as well as managerial insights are provided to support traffic network operation and control with environmental goals. The study described by this paper was conducted under the support of the FP7-funded CARBOTRAF project.

Climate change impacts affecting coastal areas, such as sea-level rise and storm surge events, are expected to have significant social, economic and environmental consequences worldwide. Ongoing population growth and development in highly urbanised coastal areas will exacerbate the predicted impacts on coastal settlements. Improving the adaptation potential of highly vulnerable coastal communities will require greater levels of planning and policy integration across sectors and scales. However, to date, there is little evidence in the literature which demonstrates how climate policy integration is being achieved. This paper contributes to this gap in knowledge by drawing on the example provided by the process of developing cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes generated for three coastal settlement types as part of the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI), a 3-year multi-sectoral study of climate change adaptation options for human settlements in South East Queensland, Australia. In doing so, we first investigate the benefits and challenges to cross-sectoral adaptation to address climate change broadly and in coastal areas. We then describe how cross-sectoral adaptation policies and programmes were generated and appraised involving the sectors of urban planning and management, coastal management, emergency management, human health and physical infrastructure as part of SEQCARI. The paper concludes by discussing key considerations that can inform the development and assessment of cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes in highly urbanised coastal areas.

The multitude of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America forms one of Earth’s largest wetland complexes. The midcontinent location exposes this ecologically and economically important wetland system to a highly variable climate, markedly influencing ponded-water levels, hydroperiods, chemical characteristics, and biota of individual basins. Given their dominance on the landscape and recognized value, great interest in how projected future changes in climate will affect prairie-pothole wetlands has developed and spawned much scientific research. On June 2, 2015, a special symposium, “Midcontinent Prairie-Pothole Wetlands: Influence of a Changed Climate,” was held at the annual meeting of the Society of Wetland Scientists in Providence, Rhode Island, USA. The symposium’s twelve presenters covered a wide range of relevant topics delivered to a standing-room-only audience. Following the symposium, the presenters recognized the need to publish their presented papers as a combined product to facilitate widespread distribution. The need for additional papers to more fully cover the topic of prairie-pothole wetlands and climate change was also identified. This supplemental issue of Wetlands is the realization of that vision.

The projected climate change signals of a five-member high resolution ensemble, based on two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5 and CCCma3) and two regional climate models (RCMs: CLM and WRF) are analysed in this paper (Part II of a two part paper). In Part I the performance of the models for the control period are presented. The RCMs use a two nest procedure over Europe and Germany with a final spatial resolution of 7 km to downscale the GCM simulations for the present (1971–2000) and future A1B scenario (2021–2050) time periods. The ensemble was extended by earlier simulations with the RCM REMO (driven by ECHAM5, two realisations) at a slightly coarser resolution. The climate change signals are evaluated and tested for significance for mean values and the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation, as well as for the intensity distribution of precipitation and the numbers of dry days and dry periods. All GCMs project a significant warming over Europe on seasonal and annual scales and the projected warming of the GCMs is retained in both nests of the RCMs, however, with added small variations. The mean warming over Germany of all ensemble members for the fine nest is in the range of 0.8 and 1.3 K with an average of 1.1 K. For mean annual precipitation the climate change signal varies in the range of −2 to 9 % over Germany within the ensemble. Changes in the number of wet days are projected in the range of ±4 % on the annual scale for the future time period. For the probability distribution of precipitation intensity, a decrease of lower intensities and an increase of moderate and higher intensities is projected by most ensemble members. For the mean values, the results indicate that the projected temperature change signal is caused mainly by the GCM and its initial condition (realisation), with little impact from the RCM. For precipitation, in addition, the RCM affects the climate change signal significantly.

Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to increase the region’s susceptibility and constrain its adaptive capacity. Climate change is commonly recognized as a major issue likely to have negative consequences on food security and livelihoods in the region. This paper reviews three bodies of scholarship that have evolved somewhat separately, yet are inherently interconnected: climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, food security, and sustainable livelihoods. The paper develops a conceptualization of the relationships among the three themes and shows how food security’s vulnerabilities are related to multiple stresses and adaptive capacities, reflecting access to assets. Food security represents one of several livelihood outcomes. The framework shows how several research paradigms relate to the issue of food security and climate change and provides a guide for empirical investigations. Recognizing these interconnections can help in the development of more effective policies and programs. The framework is applied here to synthesize findings from an array of studies in sub-Saharan Africa dealing with vulnerability to climate change, food security, and livelihoods.

Producing food, transportation, and energy for seven billion people has led to large and widespread increases in the use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers and fossil fuel combustion, resulting in a leakage of N into the environment as various forms of air and water pollution. The global N cycle is more severely altered by human activity than the global carbon (C) cycle, and reactive N dynamics affect all aspects of climate change considerations, including mitigation, adaptation, and impacts. In this special issue of Biogeochemistry, we present a review of the climate–nitrogen interactions based on a technical report for the United States National Climate Assessment presented as individual papers for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, agriculture and human health within the US. We provide a brief overview of each of the paper’s main points and conclusions is presented in this foreword summary.

This paper argues that more work is needed to facilitate cross-disciplinary collaborations by scholars across the physical sciences and humanities to improve Data Rescue Activities (DARE). Debate over the scale and potential impact of anthropogenic global warming is one of the dominant narratives of the twenty-first century. Predicting future climates and determining how environment and society might be affected by climate change are global issues of social, economic and political importance. They require responses from different research communities and necessitate closer inter-disciplinary working relationships for an integrated approach. Improving the datasets required for long-term climate models is an important part of this process. Establishing a multi-disciplinary dialogue and approach to DARE activities is increasingly being recognised as the best way to achieve this. This paper focuses on the recovery of the long-term instrumental weather observations used for models and reconstructions of the climate over the past two-hundred years. Written from the perspective of an historian working in the field, it does not seek to explore the reconstructions themselves but the process of data gathering, advocating a closer working relationship between the arts, social sciences, and sciences to extend the geographic and temporal coverage of extant datasets. This is especially important for regions where data gaps exist currently. First, it will offer a justification for extending data recovery activities for Southeast Asia and the China Seas region. Second, it will offer a brief overview of the data recovery projects currently operating in that area and the typesof historic source material that are used. Third, it will explore the work currently being undertaken for Southeast Asia and China under the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth initiative as an example of a successful cross-disciplinary program. Finally, it will argue the importance of advertising DARE activities across different fields and the benefits of a more joined-up discussion on potential data sources by exploring the use of the resource by the wider academic community.

Tourism climate indices (TCI) are commonly used to describe the climate conditions suitable for tourism activities, from the planning, investment or daily operations perspectives. A substantial amount of research has been carried out, in particular with respect to new indices formulae adapted to specific tourism products, and parameters and their weighting, taking into account surveys on the stated preferences of tourists, especially in terms of comfort. This paper illustrates another field of research, which seeks to better understand the different sources of uncertainty associated with indices. Indeed, slight differences in formula thresholds, variations in computation methods, and also the use of multimodel ensembles create nuances that affect the ways in which indices projections are usually presented. Firstly, we assess the impact of differences in preference surveys on the definition of indices thresholds, in particular for thermal comfort. Secondly, we compare computation methods for France, showing the need to better specify detailed data sources and their use to ensure the comparability of results. Thirdly, using multimodel ensembles for the Mediterranean basin, we assess the uncertainty inherent in long-term projections, which are used in modelling the economic impact of climate change. This paper argues in favour of a more cautious use of tourism comfort indices, with more consideration given to the robustness of data (validation, debiasing, uncertainty assessment, etc.) and users’ needs, from the climate services perspective. This paper was written by a team participating in the EU FP7 project CLIM-RUN “Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region Responding Users Needs” (2011–2014).

Background The default international accounting rules estimate the carbon emissions from forest products by assuming all harvest is immediately emitted to the atmosphere. This makes it difficult to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) consequences of different forest management or manufacturing activities that maintain the storage of carbon. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addresses this issue by allowing other accounting methods. The objective of this paper is to provide a new model for estimating annual stock changes of carbon in harvested wood products (HWP). Results The model, British Columbia Harvested Wood Products version 1 (BC-HWPv1), estimates carbon stocks and fluxes for wood harvested in BC from 1965 to 2065, based on new parameters on local manufacturing, updated and new information for North America on consumption and disposal of wood and paper products, and updated parameters on methane management at landfills in the USA. Based on model results, reporting on emissions as they occur would substantially lower BC’s greenhouse gas inventory in 2010 from 48 Mt CO2 to 26 Mt CO2 because of the long-term forest carbon storage in-use and in the non-degradable material in landfills. In addition, if offset projects created under BC’s protocol reported 100 year cumulative emissions using the BC-HWPv1 the emissions would be lower by about 11%. Conclusions This research showed that the IPCC default methods overestimate the emissions North America wood products. Future IPCC GHG accounting methods could include a lower emissions factor (e.g. 0.52) multiplied by the annual harvest, rather than the current multiplier of 1.0. The simulations demonstrated that the primary opportunities for climate change mitigation are in shifting from burning mill waste to using the wood for longer-lived products.

The purpose of the present paper is to present and discuss some techno-economic aspects of the impact of the automotive industry and its supply chain to climate change. In order to provide a well-structured estimate to this global concern nowadays, we will deal with the following: we will clearly define what is meant by climate change and will resume the origins, the extend and the contribution of the automotive vehicles to this phenomenon; we will give an account of the actual world-fleet of vehicles and of the expected increase of this fleet in the forthcoming future, taking into consideration the projected in the future contribution of the world-fleet of vehicles in climate change and of the actions that have been taken by regulation authorities to reduce this phenomenon by limiting the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) as well as of other pollutants by newly produced vehicles; we will provide a comprehensive approach of well-to-wheel studies regarding emission and energy consumption mainly performed in the USA, Japan and in the European Union. The above studies will permit us to evaluate alternative technologies that the automotive industry is considering in order to comply with these regulations and to contribute in reducing the impact of vehicles in the environment and, subsequently, in the climate change. CO2 equivalent gas emissions of vehicles are expected to increase in the coming years and, consequently, the contribution of the transport sector to climate change will also increase. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) constitute the technology to be adopted in order to reduce the contribution of vehicles to climate change. Given the multinational character of the automotive industry and of its suppliers, no major problems will appear in the introduction of new technology vehicles that are conceived to face the environment and climate change problems.

The Arctic is subject to growing economic and political interest. Meanwhile, its climate and water systems are in rapid transformation. In this paper, we review and extend a set of studies on climate model results, hydro-climatic change, and hydrological monitoring systems. Results indicate that general circulation model (GCM) projections of drainage basin temperature and precipitation have improved between two model generations. However, some inaccuracies remain for precipitation projections. When considering geographical priorities for monitoring or adaptation efforts, our results indicate that future projections by GCMs and recent observations diverge regarding the basins where temperature and precipitation changes currently are the most pronounced and where they will be so in the future. Regarding late twentieth-century discharge changes in major Arctic rivers, data generally show excess of water relative to precipitation changes. This indicates a possible contribution to sea-level rise of river water that was previously stored in permafrost or groundwater. The river contribution to the increasing Arctic Ocean freshwater inflow is similar in magnitude to the separate contribution from glaciers, which underlines the importance of considering all possible sources of freshwater when assessing sea-level change. We further investigate monitoring systems and find a lack of harmonized water chemistry data, which limits the ability to understand the origin and transport of nutrients, carbon and sediment to the sea. To provide adequate information for research and policy, Arctic hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring needs to be extended, better integrated and made more accessible. Further water-focused data and modeling efforts are required to resolve the source of excess discharge in Arctic rivers. Finally, improvements in climate model parameterizations are needed, in particular for precipitation projections.

A regional climate modelling system, the Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, has been used to study future climate change scenarios over Indus basin for the impact assessment. In this paper we have examined the three Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions simulations selected from 17-member perturbed physics ensemble generated using Hadley Centre Coupled Module. The climate projections based on IPCC SRES A1B scenario are analysed over three time slices, near future (2011–2040), middle of the twenty first century (2041–2070), and distant future (2071–2098). The baseline simulation (1961–1990) was evaluated with observed data for seasonal and spatial patterns and biases. The model was able to resolve features on finer spatial scales and depict seasonal variations reasonably well, although there were quantitative biases. The model simulations suggest a non-uniform change in precipitation overall, with an increase in precipitation over the upper Indus basin and decrease over the lower Indus basin, and little change in the border area between the upper and lower Indus basins. A decrease in winter precipitation is projected, particularly over the southern part of the basin. Projections indicate greater warming in the upper than the lower Indus, and greater warming in winter than in the other seasons. The simulations suggest an overall increase in the number of rainy days over the basin, but a decrease in the number of rainy days accompanied by an increase in rainfall intensity in the border area between the upper and lower basins, where the rainfall amount is highest.

Nowadays, adaptation has become a key focus of the scientific and policy-making communities and is a major area of discussion in the multilateral climate change process. As climate change is projected to hit the poorest the hardest, it is especially important for developing countries to pay particular attention to the management of natural resources and agricultural activities. In most of these countries such as Cameroon, forest can play important role in achieving broader climate change adaptation goals. However, forest generally receives very little attention in national development programme and strategies such as policy dialogues on climate change and poverty reduction strategies. Using a qualitative approach to data collection through content analysis of relevant Cameroon policy documents, the integration of climate change adaptation was explored and the level of attention given to forests for adaptation analysed. Results indicate that, with the exception of the First National Communication to UNFCCC that focused mostly on mitigation and related issues, current policy documents in Cameroon are void of tangible reference to climate change, and hence failing in drawing the relevance of forest in sheltering populations from the many projected impacts of climate change. Policies related to forest rely on a generalized concept of sustainable forest management and do not identify the specific changes that need to be incorporated into management strategies and policies towards achieving adaptation. The strategies and recommendations made in those documents only serve to improve understanding of Cameroon natural resources and add resilience to the natural systems in coping with anthropogenic stresses. The paper draws attention to the need to address the constraints of lack of awareness and poor flow of information on the potentials of forests for climate change adaptation. It highlights the need for integrating forest for adaptation into national development programmes and strategies, and recommends a review of the existing environmental legislations and their implications on poverty reduction strategy and adaptation to climate change.

The paper estimates and compares the level of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) payments required to compensate for the opportunity costs (OCs) of stopping the conversion of montane forest and miombo woodlands into cropland in two agro-ecological zones in Morogoro Region in Tanzania. Data collected from 250 households were used for OC estimation. REDD+ payment was estimated as the net present value (NPV) of agricultural rent and forest rent during land clearing, minus net returns from sustainable wood harvest, divided by the corresponding reduction in carbon stock. The median compensation required to protect the current carbon stock in the two vegetation types ranged from USD 1 tCO2e −1 for the montane forest to USD 39 tCO2e −1 for the degraded miombo woodlands, of which up to 70 % and 16 %, respectively, were for compensating OCs from forest rent during land clearing. The figures were significantly higher when the cost of farmers' own labor was not taken into account in NPV calculations. The results also highlight- ed that incentives in the form of sustainable harvests could offset up to 55 % of the total median OC to protect the montane forest and up to 45 % to protect the miombo woodlands, depending on the wage rates. The findings suggest that given the possible factors that can potentially affect estimates of REDD+ payments, avoiding deforestation of the montane forest would be feasible under the REDD+ scheme. However, implementation of the policy in villages around the miombo area would require very high compensation levels.

Introduction The assessment of the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on transport networks comprises an emerging field, which attracts the interest of several researchers. Most research efforts have concentrated on the identification of adaptation measures and best practices for specific, local events and their impacts. Therefore, the present paper aims to fill in the gap of the current research and methodological activities in linking the impact assessment of climate change to emergency adaptation strategies for transport networks within an aggregated framework and thus linking the problem with its potential solutions. Methods Following a targeted review of the state-of-practice and the relevant literature, a sequential concept for determining the optimal strategies for the relevant authorities is presented, comprised of five distinct dimensions: the extreme events, the area extent where extreme events have an impact on, the transport networks as separate modes, the transport networks as mode-internal components and finally the emergencyadaptation plans. Results Each problem dimension is discussed both autonomously and as part of the sequential concept. A mathematical formulation for the integrated framework is presented, which can be used by any interested entity (e.g. related authorities or organizations). The main theoretical aspects of the framework are also discussed in detail. Conclusions The integrated top-down approach proposed can effectively address all the major dimensions for determining optimal adaptation strategies i nas equential way. The framework can address real world questions and issues about determining the appropriate combination of measures, in order to achieve the minimization of the economic losses due to potential extreme weather events with limited available resources.

Socio-economic change, severe droughts, and environmental concerns focus attention on sustainability of water supplies and the ability of water utilities to meet levels of service. Traditionally, water management has been supply-side dominated and long-term demand forecasting has received relatively little attention. However, it is increasingly recognised that water demand management could be a ‘low regret’ adaptation measure (both financially and environmentally) given large uncertainties about future non-climate and climate pressures. This paper begins with a brief history of household water demand management in the UK. We then review approaches to water demand estimation and forecasting over the short- (daily to season) and long-term (years to decade) and note the paucity of studies on weather and climate. We discuss peak household water use behaviours identified from metering trials, micro-component diary-based studies, and statistical techniques for long-term demand forecasting. We refer to the Anglian Water Services (AWS) ‘Golden 100’ data to illustrate the significant practical and conceptual issues faced when mining household water use data for weather signals, especially when the data are noisy and originally intended for other applications. Further research is needed into the relationships between climate variables and household micro-component water use, especially for peak demands.

Climate change will affect all sectors of society and the environment at all scales, ranging from the continental to the national and local. Decision-makers and other interested citizens need to be able to access reliable science-based information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation. Participatory integrated assessment (IA) tools combine knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, take account of the value and importance of stakeholder 'lay insight' and facilitate a two-way iterative process of exploration of 'what if's' to enable decision-makers to test ideas and improve their understanding of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change. This paper describes the conceptual design of a participatory IA tool, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, based on a professionally facilitated stakeholder engagement process. The CLIMSAVE (climate change integrated methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe) Platform is a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that allows stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors, including agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development. The linking of models for the different sectors enables stakeholders to see how their interactions could affect European landscape change. The relationship between choice, uncertainty and constraints is a key cross-cutting theme in the conduct of past participatory IA. Integrating scenario development processes with an interactive modelling platform is shown to allow the exploration of future uncertainty as a structural feature of such complex problems, encouraging stakeholders to explore adaptation choices within real-world constraints of future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities, rather than seeking the 'right' answers. © 2012 The Author(s).

Due to climate change, transport systems are expected to become increasingly stressed by extreme weather and gradual climatic changes, resulting in direct costs within the affected sectors as well as indirect costs from sectoral interlinkages. To reduce these costs, sector-specific climate change adaptation measures are needed, raising the question of the net benefits of adaptation at a macroeconomic level. However, despite their importance such assessments of impacts and adaptation at the macrolevel are scarce and coarse in their implementation. This paper contributes to fill this research gap by analyzing specific adaptation measures for the road and rail sectors in Austria using a computable general equilibrium model. The findings are as follows: First, direct impact costs more than double due to macroeconomic linkages. Hence, the indirect costs are found to be larger than the direct costs. Second, when analyzing adaptation measures for the road and rail sectors, without capturing any indirect effects, benefit–cost ratios imply a clear benefit only for the rail sector. However, when indirect effects via sectoral interlinkages are also captured, adaptation measures in both sectors, road and rail, clearly pay off. Climate change-induced GDP and welfare losses are reduced by 55 and 34% and lead to positive employment effects. Third, even at rather low damage reduction potentials, adaptation leads to a net benefit at the macroeconomic level.

How should we measure a household’s resilience to climate extremes, climate change or other evolving threats? As resilience gathers momentum on the international stage, interest in this question continues to grow. So far, efforts to measure resilience have largely focused on the use of ‘objective’ frameworks and methods of indicator selection. These typically depend on a range of\ud observable socio-economic variables, such as levels of income, the extent of a household’s social capital or its access to social safety nets. Yet while objective methods have their uses, they suffer from well-documented weaknesses.\ud This paper advocates for the use of an alternative but complementary method: the measurement of ‘subjective’ resilience at the household level. The concept of subjective resilience stems from the premise that people have an understanding of the factors that contribute to their ability to anticipate, buffer and adapt to disturbance and change. Subjective household resilience therefore relates to an individual’s cognitive and affective self-evaluation of their household’s capabilities and capacities in responding to risk. We discuss the advantages and limitations of measuring subjective household resilience and highlight its relationships with other concepts such as perceived adaptive\ud capacity, subjective well-being and psychological resilience. We then put forward different options for the design and delivery of survey questions on subjective household resilience. While the approach we describe is focused at the household level, we show how it has the potential to be aggregated to inform sub-national or national resilience metrics and indicators. Lastly, we\ud highlight how subjective methods of resilience assessment could be used to improve policy and decision-making. Above all, we argue that, alongside traditional objective measures and indicators, efforts to measure resilience\ud should take into account subjective aspects of household resilience in order to ensure a more holistic understanding of resilience to climate extremes and disasters.

Climate change is mainly attributed to the burning of fossil fuels. To solve the problem, current inhabitants have to dispense with fossil fuels as a source of power. It has been demonstrated that this can be secured before 2050 by transitioning to renewable sources of energy. Massive energy storage (MES) incorporated into long distance high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission systems is the key technology for the transition. This paper describes the current state-of-the-art in electricity grid configurations. It demonstrates how MES, and other back-up local electricity storage schemes represent a natural way of buffering electricity consumers from the intermittency of inherent in the primary renewable systems. Consequently, it can solve the base-load issues and facilitate a global transition to 100% renewable energy sources over the next fifteen to twenty years.

In the drylands of Africa, pastoralists have been facing new challenges, including those related to environmental shocks and stresses. In northern Kenya, under conditions of reduced rainfall and more frequent droughts, one response has been for pastoralists to focus increasingly on camel herding. Camels have started to be kept at higher altitudes and by people who rarely kept camels before. The development has been understood as a climate change adaptation strategy and as a means to improve climate resilience. Since 2003, development organizations have started to further the trend by distributing camels in the region. Up to now, little has been known about the nature of, reasons for, or ramifications of the increased reliance on camels. The paper addresses these questions and concludes that camels improve resilience in this dryland region, but only under certain climate change scenarios, and only for some groups.

In this paper I discuss a popular position in the climate justice literature concerning historical accountability for climate change. According to this view, historical high-emitters of greenhouse gases—or currently existing individuals that are appropriately related to them—are in possession of some form of emission debt, owed to certain of those who are now burdened by climate change. It is frequently claimed that such debts were originally incurred by historical emissions that violated a principle of fair shares for the world’s natural resources. Thus, a suitable principle of natural resource justice is required to render this interpretation of historical accountability complete. I argue that the need for such a principle poses a significant challenge for the historical emission debt view, because there doesn’t appear to be any determinate answer to the question what a fair share of climate sink capacity would have been historically. This leaves the historical emission debt view incomplete and thus unable to explain a powerful intuition that appears to motivate the view: namely, that there is something unjust about how the climate sink has historically been used. I suggest an alternative explanation of this common intuition according to which historically unequal consumption of climate sink capacity, whether or not wrongful in and of itself, is a symptom of broader global injustice concerning control over and access to the world’s natural resources. This broader historical injustice will be harder to quantify and harder to repair than that which the historical emission debt purports to identify.

Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950–2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0583-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The impact of climatic changes on life cycles by re-scheduling the timing of reproduction is an important topic in studies of biodiversity. Global warming causes and will probably cause in the future not only raising temperatures but also an increasing frequency of extreme weather events. In 2013, the winter in central and north Europe ended late, with low temperatures and long-retained snow cover--this extreme weather phenomenon acted in opposition to the increasing temperature trend. In 2013, thermal conditions measured by the warmth sum in the period 15 March–15 April, a critical time for early breeding passerines, went far beyond the range of the warmth sums for at least 40 preceding years. Regardless of what was the reason for the extreme early spring 2013 and assuming that there is a potential for more atypical years because of climate change, we should look closely at every extreme phenomenon and its consequences for the phenology of organisms. In this paper, we report that the prolonged occurrence of winter conditions during the time that is crucial for Blue Tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and Great Tit (Parus major) reproduction caused a substantial delay in the onset of egg laying in comparison with typical springs.

Extensive research is being conducted world- wide to find alternative and efficient systems to lessen the impacts of climate change and reduce environmental pol- lution. The genus Phragmites has proven ability to mitigate the environmental pollution of its surroundings. Common reed (Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. Ex. Steudel), a graminaceous plant of cosmopolitan nature, has been extensively studied especially for the mitigation of envi- ronmental contamination. The capability of common reed to grow well at extreme environmental conditions such as elevated CO2 and high temperature is conferred by several factors such as change of carbon trapping mechanism (from C3 to C4 and vice versa), microbial association and biochemical adaptations. P. australis has been a most preferred unique plant system, especially in ecological engineering for improving the quality of wastewater. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge regarding the suitability of Phragmites australis for environmental remediation and summarizes recent advancements in our understanding of this grass.

The recent paper by Brodie and Post (“Nonlinear responses of wolverine populations to declining winter snowpack”, Popul Ecol 52:279–287, 2010) reports conclusions that are unsupportable, in our opinion, due to both mis-interpretations of current knowledge regarding the wolverine’s (Gulo gulo) association with snow, and the uncritical use of harvest data to index wolverine populations. The authors argue that, because the wolverine is a snow-dependent species, average annual provincial snowfall, based on weather station data, can be expected to correlate strongly and positively with wolverine population numbers, which in turn can be accurately indexed by trapper harvests. Thus, correlations between declines in wolverine harvests and declining average snowpack are interpreted to reflect a climate-driven decrease in wolverine populations. This conclusion overstates the nature of the wolverine’s association with snow, and makes unsupportable assumptions about the reliability of harvest data as a proxy for population size.

This paper reviews the state of knowledge on social vulnerability to climate change in three hot spots (deltas, semi-arid regions and snowpack- or glacier-fed river basins) in Africa, Central Asia and South Asia, using elements of systematic review methods. Social vulnerability is defined as a dynamic state of societies comprising exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We examine whether the hot spots have specific characteristics that tend to increase or decrease social vulnerability, consider suitable scales of analysis for understanding vulnerability, and explore the conceptions of vulnerability adopted in the climate change literature and the nature of the insights this generates. Finally, we identify knowledge gaps in this literature. All three hot spots are characterized by high levels of natural resource dependence, with increasing environmental degradation. They also exhibit unequal policies and patterns of development, which benefit certain segments of society while making others more vulnerable. Vulnerability is driven by multiple factors operating at different scales; however, characterization of cross-scalar interactions is poorly developed in the majority of studies reviewed. Most studies are either large scale, such as broad comparisons of vulnerability across countries, or local, documenting community-level processes. Detailed understanding of the interactions between climate change impacts on natural systems, and socio-economic trajectories, including adaptation, also emerges as a knowledge gap.

Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) simulate different realizations of possible future climates at global scale under contrasting scenarios of land-use and greenhouse gas emissions. Such data require several additional processing steps before it can be used to drive impact models. Spatial downscaling, typically by regional climate models (RCM), and bias-correction are two such steps that have already been addressed for Europe. Yet, the errors in resulting daily meteorological variables may be too large for specific model applications. Crop simulation models are particularly sensitive to these inconsistencies and thus require further processing of GCM-RCM outputs. Moreover, crop models are often run in a stochastic manner by using various plausible weather time series (often generated using stochastic weather generators) to represent climate time scale for a period of interest (e.g. 2000 ± 15 years), while GCM simulations typically provide a single time series for a given emission scenario. To inform agricultural policy-making, data on near- and medium-term decadal time scale is mostly requested, e.g. 2020 or 2030. Taking a sample of multiple years from these unique time series to represent time horizons in the near future is particularly problematic because selecting overlapping years may lead to spurious trends, creating artefacts in the results of the impact model simulations. This paper presents a database of consolidated and coherent future daily weather data for Europe that addresses these problems. Input data consist of daily temperature and precipitation from three dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate simulations of the IPCC A1B emission scenario created within the ENSEMBLES project. Solar radiation is estimated from temperature based on an auto-calibration procedure. Wind speed and relative air humidity are collected from historical series. From these variables, reference evapotranspiration and vapour pressure deficit are estimated ensuring consistency within daily records. The weather generator ClimGen is then used to create 30 synthetic years of all variables to characterize the time horizons of 2000, 2020 and 2030, which can readily be used for crop modelling studies.

In the present paper, the inter-seasonal Hg variability in snow cover was examined based on multivariate statistical analysis of chemical and meteorological data. Samples of freshly fallen snow cover were collected at the semi-urban site in Poznań (central Poland), during 3-month field measurements in winter 2013. It was showed that concentrations of atmospherically deposited Hg were highly variable in snow cover, from 0.43 to 12.5 ng L−1, with a mean value of 4.62 ng L−1. The highest Hg concentration in snow cover coincided with local intensification of fossil fuel burning, indicating large contribution from various anthropogenic sources such as commercial and domestic heating, power generation plants, and traffic-related pollution. Moreover, the variability of Hg in collected snow samples was associated with long-range transport of pollutants, nocturnal inversion layer, low boundary layer height, and relatively low air temperature. For three snow episodes, Hg concentration in snow cover was attributed to southerly advection, suggesting significant contribution from the highly polluted region of Poland (Upper Silesia) and major European industrial hotspots. However, the peak Hg concentration was measured in samples collected during predominant N to NE advection of polluted air masses and after a relatively longer period without precipitation. Such significant contribution to the higher Hg accumulation in snow cover was associated with intensive emission from anthropogenic sources (coal combustion) and atmospheric conditions in this area. These results suggest that further measurements are needed to determine how the Hg transformation paths in snow cover change in response to longer/shorter duration of snow cover occurrence and to determine the interactions between mercury and absorbing carbonaceous aerosols in the light of climate change.

Adaptation is a key component of climate policy, yet we have limited and fragmented understanding of if and how adaptation is currently taking place. In this paper, we document and characterize the current status of adaptation in 47 vulnerable ‘hotspot’ nations in Asia and Africa, based on a systematic review of the peer-reviewed and grey literature, as well as policy documents, to extract evidence of adaptation initiatives. In total, 100 peer-reviewed articles, 161 grey literature documents, and 27 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Communications were reviewed, constituting 760 adaptation initiatives. Results indicate a significant increase in reported adaptations since 2006. Adaptations are primarily being reported from African and low-income countries, particularly those nations receiving adaptation funds, involve a combination of groundwork and more concrete adaptations to reduce vulnerability, and are primarily being driven by national governments, NGOs, and international institutions, with minimal involvement of lower levels of government or collaboration across nations. Gaps in our knowledge of adaptation policy and practice are particularly notable in North Africa and Central Asia, and there is limited evidence of adaptation initiatives being targeted at vulnerable populations including socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, children, indigenous peoples, and the elderly.

International audience; Our planet is changing, and one of the most pressing challenges facing the scientific community revolves around understanding how ecological communities respond to global changes. From coastal to deep-sea ecosystems, ecologists are exploring new areas of research to find model organisms that help predict the future of life on our planet. Among the different categories of organisms, meiofauna offer several advantages for the study of marine benthic ecosystems. This paper reviews the advances in the study of meiofauna with regard to climate change and anthropogenic impacts. Four taxonomic groups are valuable for predicting global changes: foraminifers (especially calcareous forms), nematodes, copepods and ostracods. Environmental variables are fundamental in the interpretation of meiofaunal patterns and multistressor experiments are more informative than single stressor ones, revealing complex ecological and biological interactions. Global change has a general negative effect on meiofauna, with important consequences on benthic food webs. However, some meiofaunal species can be favoured by the extreme conditions induced by global change, as they can exhibit remarkable physiological adaptations. This review highlights the need to incorporate studies on taxonomy, genetics and function of meiofaunal taxa into global change impact research.

Limiting global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial global mean temperature has become a widely endorsed goal for climate policy. It has also been severely criticized. We show how the limit emerged out of a marginal remark in an early paper about climate policy and distinguish three possible views of it. The catastrophe view sees it as the threshold separating a domain of safety from a domain of catastrophe. The cost-benefit view sees it as a strategy to optimize the relation between the costs and benefits of climate policy. The focal point view sees it as a solution to a complex coordination problem. We argue that the focal point view is the most appropriate. It leads to an emphasis on implementing effective steps toward a near-zero emissions economy, without panicking in the face of a possible temporary overshooting. After several decades of practical experiences, the focal point may or may not be redefined on the basis of knowledge gathered thanks to these experiences.

This paper presents a method for the analysis of socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability of people being at risk of losing their livelihoods as a consequence of global environmental change. This method fills a gap in meth- odologies for vulnerability analysis by providing general- izations of the factors that shape vulnerability in specific socio-ecological systems and showing their spatial occur- rence. The proposed method consists of four steps that include both quantitative and qualitative analyses. To start, the socio-ecological system exposed to global environ- mental changes that will be studied needs to be determined. This could, for example, be farmers in drylands, urban populations in coastal areas and forest-dependent people in the tropics. Next, the core dimensions that shape vulnera- bility in the socio-ecological system of interest need to be defined. Subsequently, a set of spatially explicit indicators that reflect these core dimensions is selected. Cluster ana- lysis is used for grouping the indicator data. The clusters found, referred to as vulnerability profiles, describe dif- ferent typical groupings of conditions and processes that create vulnerability in the socio-ecological system under study, and their spatial distribution is provided. Interpre- tation and verification of these profiles is the last step in the analysis. We illustrate the application of this method by analysing the patterns of vulnerability of (smallholder) farmers in drylands. We identify eight distinct vulnerability profiles in drylands that together provide a global overview of different processes taking place and sub-national detail of their distribution. By overlaying the spatial distribution of these profiles with specific outcome indicators such as conflict occurrence or migration, the method can also be used to understand these phenomena better. Analysis of vulnerability profiles will in a next step be used as a basis for identifying responses to reduce vulnerability, for example, to facilitate the transfer of best practices to reduce vulnerability between different places.

This paper evaluates the effect of climate change (described in terms of temperature and rainfall) on forest cover and vegetation (described in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) in the Betwa river basin, a tributary of River Yamuna in Central India. Temperature and rainfall data of 18 stations, forest cover and vegetation (derived using 5 years data from Landsat images employing ERDAS Imagine and ArcGIS) were used in the analysis. The effect of climate change was studied for both the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. In this study, the simple regression method was used to evaluate their relationship. In pre-monsoon season, temperature and forest cover analysis shows regression coefficient value of 0.6876 and, temperature and vegetation analysis shows regression coefficient value of 0.5751. Further, in post-monsoon season analysis rainfall and forest cover shows regression coefficient value of 0.8417 and, temperature and vegetation analysis shows regression coefficient value of 0.6854. The study reveals that, in pre-monsoon season temperature was significantly related with forest cover and vegetation. In post-monsoon season rainfall exhibited positive response to forest cover and, temperature exhibited negative response to vegetation in the Betwa river basin.

• Context This review paper provides an overview of approaches to which we may resort for handling the complex decision problems involving uncertainty and risk that climate change implies for forest managers. Modelling approaches that could support adaptive management strategies seem to be called for, not only as climate change denotes increased economic uncertainty but also because new and more reliable information becomes available as time passes and climate changes.

Coastal safety may be influenced by climate change, as changes in wave conditions (height, period, direction) may increase the vulnerability of dunes and other coastal defences. Dune erosion depends on mean water level, storm surge height and wave conditions. In this paper, we investigate the change in wave conditions in the North Sea in a changing climate. Until now, the effect of climate change on annual maximum wave conditions has been investigated, while events with higher return periods are actually most damaging for the coast (e.g. severe dune erosion). Here, we use the 17-member Ensemble SimulationS of Extreme weather under Nonlinear Climate changeE (ESSENCE) change of climate change simulations, to analyse A1b-induced changes in the mean wave climate, the annual maxima and wave conditions with return periods of up to 1:10,000 years in front of the Dutch coast. The mean wave climate is not projected to differ between 1961–1990 and 2071– 2100, with both wave height (Hs) and wave period (Tm) remaining unaltered. In the annual maximum conditions, a decrease is projected; especially, the annual Tm maximum decreases significantly by 0.3 to 0.6 s over Responsible Editor: Birgit Andrea Klein S. L. Weber, deceased 12 August 2011. R. C. de Winter (B) · S. L. Weber · B. G. Ruessink Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80.115, 3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands e-mail: r.c.dewinter@uu.nl R. C. de Winter · A. Sterl · J. W. de Vries · S. L. Weber Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands the whole study area. Furthermore, we find that the direction of the annual maximum wave conditions shifts from north and north-west to west and south-west for both Hs and Tm. This is induced by a similar shift in the direction of the extreme wind speeds. Despite the decrease in annual maximum conditions, the return Hs and Tm are not projected to change significantly as a result of climate change in front of the Dutch coast for the period 2071–2100 relative to 1961–1990.

Human dimensions research focuses on the interrelationships between humans and the environment. To date, human dimensions research in arctic regions has concentrated primarily on local events and contexts. As such, it complements analysis elsewhere of adaptation and sustainable development within broad institutional, social, and environmental contexts. This paper reviews five projects from the Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC) initiative, established by the US National Science Foundation in 1997. Common themes and findings are highlighted: climatic variations or change affect societies through interactions with human activities; population dynamics provide key quantitative indicators of social impacts and well being; and specific impacts and responses are the result of complex, context-sensitive interactions. Congruent approaches to the challenges of interdisciplinary research are also identified: multivariate time plots aid the integration of data, retrospective and prospective studies are part of a continuum and reinforce one another, comparative studies are essential for understanding general principles of human dimensions, and arctic residents can play a vital role in research and action.

Coastal inundation from hurricane storm surges causes catastrophic damage to lives and property, as evidenced by recent hurricanes including Katrina and Wilma in 2005 and Ike in 2008. Changes in hurricane activity and sea level due to a warming climate, together with growing coastal population, are expected to increase the potential for loss of property and lives. Current inundation hazard maps: Base Flood Elevation maps and Maximum of Maximums are computationally expensive to create in order to fully represent the hurricane climatology, and do not account for climate change. This paper evaluates the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for climate change. Storm surges associated with the optimal storms are simulated with CH3D-SSMS and the results are used to obtain the response to any storm via interpolation, allowing accurate representation of the hurricane climatology and efficient generation of hazard maps. Incorporating the impact of anticipated climate change on hurricane and sea level, the inundation maps for future climate scenarios are made and affected people and property estimated. The future climate scenarios produce little change to coastal inundation, due likely to the reduction in hurricane frequency, except when extreme sea level rise is included. Calculated coastal inundation due to sea level rise without using a coastal surge model is also determined and shown to significantly overestimate the inundation due to neglect of land dissipation.