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A wealth of pre-Confederation weather and climate observations were recorded in Canada by individuals and institutions during both the French and British empires. This scientific heritage came about for a number of reasons. For instance, the Hudson's Bay Company wanted to reduce operating costs by having their posts in Canada's north-west become self-sufficient in agriculture. Others wished to save lives from cholera or shipwrecks, or to satisfy curiosity about the ever-present debate concerning anthropogenic climate change. Today, historical climate observations can be found in many diverse locations. Despite our rich scientific heritage, turning archival paper and ink observations into scientific data remains an enormous technical challenge. This challenge falls to our generation, both to use this heritage to investigate the historical context of current climate change and variability, and to use the digital resources in development today to safeguard our scientific heritage for future generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European fisheries are at a critical juncture. The confluence of political change and environmental change, along with the challenges of past Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) reforms such as the landing obligation, creates a once in a generation opportunity for a paradigm shift in fisheries management in the region. This paper sets out a series of arguments for why the status quo situation for the governance of European Union fisheries, especially for shared Northeast Atlantic fisheries is very likely unsustainable under these new circumstances. At stake is confidence in, and support for the management of the regions shared fisheries, the economic viability of fisheries and sustainability of stocks. Brexit is an additional incentive to unlock the potential of existing, but little used mechanisms within the CFP to allow the reimagining of fisheries management and governance in the Northeast Atlantic. Three of these tools and mechanisms are (i) Quota swapping, (ii) Article 16 quota uplift provisions, (iii) and Article 15 flexibility mechanisms. These mechanisms can be adopted by individual Member States for fleets in their waters or in the case of quota swapping be applied across Member States and may help stabilize fisheries under these stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate classifications based on temperature and precipitation measurements are increasingly being used for environmental and climate change studies. Using three classification methods (Köppen, Extended Köppen, and Holdridge) and one observational dataset for present climate (CRU, Climate Research Unit), we show that GCMs have bridged the gap that led to the emergence of RCMs thirty years ago, as GCMs can now provide global climate classifications whose accuracy and precision are comparable to those of regional outputs of the RCMs. Projections of high-resolution GCMs for future climates under the assumptions of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85) can therefore be used as a primary source for climate change and global warming studies at high resolution. This paper provides comprehensive, model-derived climate classifications for the entire planet, using RCMs and two GCMs for present and future climate-change scenarios, and discusses how well the models actually represent the climates of the world when compared with reference, ground validation data. It turns out that both GCMs and RCMs appear still limited to provide practical estimates of the world climates even for present climate conditions. The modeling of precipitation remains the Achilles' heel of models and thus of multidimensional indices, which are very sensitive to this variable. The conclusion is that model outputs at regional scale need to be taken with extreme caution without venturing into informing policies presenting potentially large societal impacts. Nonetheless, the role of models as privileged tools to advance our scientific knowledge of the Earth's system remains undisputed. • A systematic analysis of climate classifications with RCMs and two high resolution GCMs is presented. • Three classification methods are used to illustrate the differences between models and observations. • Current high-resolution GCMs can provide climate classifications with the same accuracy as those from RCMs. • Uncertainties in modeling precipitation persist for large parts of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the last twenty-five years, CO-PDD (Cézeaux-Aulnat-Opme-puy de Dôme) has evolved to become a full instrumented platform for atmospheric research. It is nationally accredited by CNRS, the French national center for scientific research, and recognized as a global station in the GAW network (Global Atmospheric Watch). It is a reference site of the European and national research infrastructures ACTRIS (Aerosol Cloud and Trace gases Research Infrastructure) and ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observing System). The site located on-top of the puy de Dôme mountain (1465 m a.s.l.) is completed by additional sites located at lower altitudes and adding the vertical dimension to the atmospheric observations: Opme (660 m a.s.l.), Cézeaux (410 m) and Aulnat (330 m). On the sites has been developed a unique combination of in-situ and remote sensing measurements capturing and documenting the variability of particulate and gaseous atmospheric composition, but also the optical, biochemical and physical properties of aerosol particles, clouds and precipitations. Given its location far away from any major emission sources, its altitude and the mountain orography, the puy de Dôme station is ideally situated to sample different air masses in the boundary layer or in the free troposphere depending on time of day and seasons. It is also an ideal place to study cloud properties with frequent presence of clouds at the top in autumn and winter. As a result of the natural conditions prevailing at the site and of the very exhaustive instrumental deployment, scientific studies at puy de Dôme strongly contribute to improving the knowledge in atmospheric sciences including the characterization of trends and variability, the understanding of complex and interconnected processes (microphysical, chemical, biological, chemical and dynamical) and providing a reference point for climate models. In this context, CO-PDD is a pilot site to conduct instrumental development inside its wind tunnel for testing liquid/ice cloud probes in natural conditions, or in-situ systems to collect aerosol and cloud. This paper reviews 25 years (1995-2020) of atmospheric observation at the station, and related scientific research contributing to atmospheric and climate science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objectives: Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. Methods: The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. Results: A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Conclusions: Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infectious diseases attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis) remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather factors are known to affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases and statistical and mathematical modelling are continuously developing to investigate the impact of weather and climate on water-associated diseases. There have been little critical analyses of the methodological approaches. Our objective is to review and summarize statistical and modelling methods used to investigate the effects of weather and climate on infectious diseases associated with water, in order to identify limitations and knowledge gaps in developing of new methods. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers published from 2000 to 2015. Search terms included concepts related to water-associated diseases, weather and climate, statistical, epidemiological and modelling methods. We found 102 full text papers that met our criteria and were included in the analysis. The most commonly used methods were grouped in two clusters: process-based models (PBM) and time series and spatial epidemiology (TS-SE). In general, PBM methods were employed when the bio-physical mechanism of the pathogen under study was relatively well known (e.g. Vibrio cholerae); TS-SE tended to be used when the specific environmental mechanisms were unclear (e.g. Campylobacter). Important data and methodological challenges emerged, with implications for surveillance and control of water-associated infections. The most common limitations comprised: non-inclusion of key factors (e.g. biological mechanism, demographic heterogeneity, human behavior), reporting bias, poor data quality, and collinearity in exposures. Furthermore, the methods often did not distinguish among the multiple sources of time-lags (e.g. patient physiology, reporting bias, healthcare access) between environmental drivers/exposures and disease detection. Key areas of future research include: disentangling the complex effects of weather/climate on each exposure-health outcome pathway (e.g. person-to-person vs environment-to-person), and linking weather data to individual cases longitudinally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an expectation that the insurance sector should be leading business efforts in responding to climate change due to their inherent exposure to increasing risks. However, insurance companies normally operate on a one year time horizon - underwriting risks through policies which change each year to reflect new knowledge of these risks. The ClimateWise principles is a voluntary initiative of the insurance sector that was launched in 2007 to provide a basis for insurance companies to engage with climate change risks. This paper introduces the ClimateWise initiative and explores progress made since its launch. The paper presents new knowledge on whether this voluntary initiative provides a useful structure for the insurance sector in responding to the challenge of climate change. It finds that while the insurance sector has engaged with climate change, there is much more to do and we welcome the recent changes to ClimateWise that more accurately reflect this. The paper concludes that ClimateWise has been a useful initiative for the insurance companies and as a potential benchmark for the sector it offers some value. However, ClimateWise has not provided a strong enough engagement across the sector to embed climate action into business decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The systematic bias of the estimated average temperature using daily Tmax and Tmin records relative to the standard average temperature of four time-equidistant observations and its effect on the estimated trend of long-term temperature change have not been well understood. This paper attempts to evaluate the systematic bias across mainland China using the daily data of national observational stations. The results revealed that the positive bias of annual mean temperature was large, reaching 0.58°C nationally on average; regional average bias was lowest in the northwest arid region and highest in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau; the bias was low in spring and summer and high in autumn and winter, reaching its lowest point in mid- and late May and highest point in early November. Furthermore, the bias showed a significant upward trend in the past 50 years, with a rising rate of 0.021°C (10 yr)−1, accounting for about 12% of the overall warming as estimated from the data of the observational network; the largest positive trend bias was found in the northwest arid region, while the east monsoon region experienced the smallest change; the most remarkable increase of the bias occurred after early 1990s. These results indicate that the customarily applied method to calculate daily and monthly mean temperature using Tmax and Tmin significantly overestimates the climatological mean and the long-term trend of surface air temperature in mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper brings advances in weather data collection and modeling, and developments in socioeconomic climate microsimulations to bear on the analysis of the implications of climate change (CC) in the design of public policies to combat food insecurity. It uses new downscaled predictions of future climate in 2050, derived from three Earth System Models calibrated with a new historical weather station dataset for Peru. This climate data is used in a three-stage socioeconomic microsimulation model that includes climate risk, and deals with the endogeneity of incomes and simultaneity of expected food consumption and its variability. We estimate the impact of CC on agricultural yields, and find results consistent and fully bounded within what the global simulations literature has found, with yields falling up to 13% in some regions. However, we show that these drops (and increases) in yields translate to much smaller changes in food consumption, and also surprisingly, to very minor impacts on vulnerability to food insecurity. The document explores what explains this surprising result, showing that in addition to characteristics that are specific to Peru, there are household and market mediating mechanisms that are available in all countries, which explain how changes in yields, and corresponding farm incomes have a reduced impact in vulnerability to food insecurity. Finally, in light of these findings, we explore which policies might have greater impact in reducing food insecurity in contexts of hunger prevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Located in a monsoon domain, East Asia suffers devastating natural hazards induced by anomalous monsoon behaviors. East Asian monsoon (EAM) research has traditionally been a high priority for the Chinese climate community and is particularly challenging in a changing climate where the global mean temperature has been rising. Recent advances in studies of the variabilities and mechanisms of the EAM are reviewed in this paper, focusing on the interannual to interdecadal time scales. Some new results have been achieved in understanding the behaviors of the EAM, such as the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), including both its onset and withdrawal over the South China Sea, the changes in the northern boundary activity of the EASM, or the transitional climate zone in East Asia, and the cycle of the EASM and the East Asian winter monsoon and their linkages. In addition, understanding of the mechanism of the EAM variability has improved in several aspects, including the impacts of different types of ENSO on the EAM, the impacts from the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean, and the roles of mid- to high-latitude processes. Finally, some scientific issues regarding our understanding of the EAM are proposed for future investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Utilising climate funds properly to reduce the impact of potential risks of climate change at the local level is essential for successful adaptation to climate change. Climate change has been disrupting the lives of millions of households along the coastal region of Bangladesh. The country has allocated support from its national funds and accessed international funds for the implementation of adaptation interventions. With the focus of the scientific community on climate finance mechanisms and governance at the global and the national level, there is a lacuna in empirical evidence of how climate finance affects risk appraisal and engagement in adaptation measures at the local level. This paper aims to examine how the support from climate finance affects risk appraisal in terms of the perceived probability and severity and the factors which influence risk appraisal. A field survey was conducted on 240 climate finance recipient households (CF HHs) and 120 nonclimate finance recipient households (non-CF HHs) in Galachipa Upazila of Patuakhali District in coastal Bangladesh. The results indicate that both CF and non-CF HHs experience a high probability of facing climatic events in the future; however, CF HHs anticipated a higher severity of impacts of climatic events on different dimensions of their households. With higher income and social capital, the overall risk appraisal decreases for CF HHs. CF HHs have higher engagement in adaptation measures and social groups and maintain alternative sources of income. Climate finance played a critical role in supporting households in understanding the risks that they were facing, assisting them in exploring as well as enhancing their engagement in adaptation options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Economic inequality reduces the political space for addressing climate change, by producing fear-based populism. Only when the safety, social status, and livelihoods of all members of society are assured will voluntary, democratic decisions be possible to reverse climate change and fairly mitigate its effects. Socio-environmental and climate justice, commoning, and decolonization are pre-conditions for participatory, responsible governance that both signals and assists the development of equitable socio-political systems. Degrowth movements, when they explicitly prioritize equity, can help to focus activism for climate justice and sustainable livelihoods. This paper overviews the theoretical grounding for these arguments, drawing from the work of ecofeminist and Indigenous writers. Indigenous (and also ecofeminist) praxis is grounded in activists' leadership for commoning and resistance to extraction, the fossil fuel economy, and commodified property rights. These movements are building a politics of decolonization, respect, solidarity, and hope rather than xenophobia and despair. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How mountain hydrology at different elevations will respond to climate change is a challenging question of great importance to assessing changing water resources. Here, three North American Cordilleran snow-dominated basins—Wolf Creek, Yukon; Marmot Creek, Alberta; and Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho—each with good meteorological and hydrological records, were modeled using the physically based, spatially distributed Cold Regions Hydrological Model. Model performance was verified using field observations and found adequate for diagnostic analysis. To diagnose the effects of future climate, the monthly temperature and precipitation changes projected for the future by 11 regional climate models for the mid-twenty-first century were added to the observed meteorological time series. The modeled future was warmer and wetter, increasing the rainfall fraction of precipitation and shifting all three basins toward rainfall–runoff hydrology. This shift was largest at lower elevations and in the relatively warmer Reynolds Mountain East. In the warmer future, there was decreased blowing snow transport, snow interception and sublimation, peak snow accumulation, and melt rates, and increased evapotranspiration and the duration of the snow-free season. Annual runoff in these basins did not change despite precipitation increases, warming, and an increased prominence of rainfall over snowfall. Reduced snow sublimation offset reduced snowfall amounts, and increased evapotranspiration offset increased rainfall amounts. The hydrological uncertainty due to variation among climate models was greater than the predicted hydrological changes. While the results of this study can be used to assess the vulnerability and resiliency of water resources that are dependent on mountain snow, stakeholders and water managers must make decisions under considerable uncertainty, which this paper illustrates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are major drivers of environmental change at all scales and are especially at risk from the ensuing effects, which include poor air quality, flooding and heat waves. Typically, these issues are studied on a city-by-city basis owing to the spatial complexity of built landscapes, local topography and emission patterns. However, to ensure knowledge sharing and to integrate local-scale processes with regional and global scale modelling initiatives, there is a pressing need for a world-wide database on cities that is suited for environmental studies. In this paper we present a European database that has a particular focus on characterising urbanised landscapes. It has been derived using tools and techniques developed as part of the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) project, which has the goal of acquiring and disseminating climate-relevant information on cities worldwide. The European map is the first major step toward creating a global database on cities that can be integrated with existing topographic and natural land-cover databases to support modelling initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation can have significant adverse impacts on infrastructure and property, human health, and local economies. This paper examines recent changes in extreme precipitation in the northeast United States. Daily station data from 58 stations missing less than 5% of days for the years 1979–2014 from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network were used to analyze extreme precipitation, defined as the top 1% of days with precipitation. A statistically significant (95% confidence level) increasing trend of the threshold for the top 1% of extreme precipitation events was found (0.3 mm yr−1). This increasing trend was due to both an increase in the frequency of extreme events and the magnitude of extreme events. Rainfall events ≥ 150 mm (24-h accumulation) increased in frequency from 6 events between 1979 and 1996 to 25 events between 1997 and 2014, a 317% increase. The annual daily maximum precipitation, or the highest recorded precipitation amount in a given year, increased by an average of 1.6 mm yr−1, a total increase of 58.0 mm. Decreasing trends in extreme precipitation were observed east of Lake Erie during the warm season. Increasing trends in extreme precipitation were most robust during the fall months of September, October, and November, and particularly at locations further inland. The analysis showed that increases in events that were tropical in nature, or associated with tropical moisture, led to the observed increase in extreme precipitation during the fall months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its extension, geography and the presence of several under-developed or developing economies, the Central Asia domain of the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is one of the most vulnerable regions on Earth to the effects of climate changes. Reliable information on potential future changes with high spatial resolution acquire significant importance for the development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for the region. In this context, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) play a fundamental role. In this paper, the results of a set of sensitivity experiments with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM version 5.0, for the Central Asia CORDEX domain, are presented. Starting from a reference model setup, general model performance is evaluated for present-days, testing the effects of a set of singular physical parameterizations and their mutual interaction on the simulation of monthly and seasonal values of three variables that are important for impact studies: 2-meter temperature, precipitation and diurnal temperature range. The final goal of this study is two-fold: having a general overview of model performance and its uncertainties for the considered region and determining at the same time an optimal model configuration. Results show that the model presents remarkable deficiencies over different areas of the domain. The combined change of the albedo taking into consideration the ratio of forest fractions and the soil conductivity taking into account the ratio of liquid water and ice in the soil, allows to achieve the best improvements in model performance in terms of climatological means. Importantly, the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features, and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation. The results for the mean climate appear to be independent of the observational dataset used for evaluation and of the boundary data employed to force the simulations. On the other hand, due to the large uncertainties in the variability estimates from observations, the use of different boundaries and the model internal variability, it has not been possible to rank the different simulations according to their representation of the monthly variability. This work is the first ever sensitivity study of an RCM for the CORDEX Central Asia domain and its results are of fundamental importance for further model development and for future climate projections over the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to test the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity of major crops, including rice, wheat and maize, in specific districts of Pakistan. This is done by observing year-to-year fluctuations in rainfall and temperature in relation to agricultural productivity for the period 1981-2009. For estimation purposes, the production function technique is used to evaluate the relationship between climate and yield variability. The results show that higher amount of rainfall has a negative and significant impact on the production of all crops including wheat, rice and maize. It may be because unexpected rainfall in Pakistan during monsoon season severely damages crops. This result is consistent with our expectation that high level of rainfall would decrease agricultural productivity and contribute to food insecurity in Pakistan. However, variation in temperature displays a stable trend and has significant positive impact on crop yield. This is contrary to our expectation that high temperature results in low agricultural productivity. This analysis is useful from the stand point of policy makers and analysts as it will help them develop policies relating to improvement in agricultural sector in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we present a simple model for assessing the willingness to pay for reductions in the risk associated with catastrophic climate change. The model is extremely tractable and applies to a multiregion world but with global externalities and has five key features: (i) Neither the occurrence nor the costs of a catastrophic event in any one year are precisely predictable; (ii) the probability of a catastrophe occurring in any one year increases as the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase; (iii) greenhouse gases are a worldwide public bad with emissions from any one country or region increasing the risks for all; (iv) there is twosided irreversibility; if nothing is done and the problem proves serious, the climate, economic activity, and human life will suffer permanent damage, but if we spend large sums on countermeasures and the problem turns out to be minor or even nonexistent, we will have wasted resources unnecessarily; and (v) technological progress may yield partial or even complete solutions. The framework that we propose can give a sense of the quantitative significance of mitigation strategies. We illustrate these for a core set of parameter values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce a scalable machine learning approach accompanied by open-source software for identifying violent and peaceful forms of political protest participation using social media data. While violent political protests are statistically rare events, they often shape public perceptions of political and social movements. This is, in part, due to the extensive and disproportionate media coverage which violent protest participation receives relative to peaceful protest participation. In the past, when a small number of media conglomerates served as the primary information source for learning about political and social movements, viewership and advertiser demands encouraged news organizations to focus on violent forms of political protest participation. Consequently, much of our knowledge about political protest participation is derived from data collected about violent protests, while less is known about peaceful forms of protest. Since the early 2000s, the digital revolution shifted attention away from traditional news sources toward social media as a primary source of information about current events. This, along with developments in machine learning which allow us to collect and analyze data relevant to political participation, present us with unique opportunities to expand our knowledge of peaceful and violent forms of political protest participation through social media data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Third Pole (TP) is experiencing rapid warming and is currently in its warmest period in the past 2,000 years. This paper reviews the latest development in multidisciplinary TP research associated with this warming. The rapid warming facilitates intense and broad glacier melt over most of the TP, although some glaciers in the northwest are advancing. By heating the atmosphere and reducing snow/ice albedo, aerosols also contribute to the glaciers melting. Glacier melt is accompanied by lake expansion and intensification of the water cycle over the TP. Precipitation has increased over the eastern and northwestern TP. Meanwhile, the TP is greening and most regions are experiencing advancing phenological trends, although over the southwest there is a spring phenological delay mainly in response to the recent decline in spring precipitation. Atmospheric and terrestrial thermal and dynamical processes over the TP affect the Asian monsoon at different scales. Recent evidence indicates substantial roles that mesoscale convective systems play in the TP's precipitation as well as an association between soil moisture anomalies in the TP and the Indian monsoon. Moreover, an increase in geohazard events has been associated with recent environmental changes, some of which have had catastrophic consequences caused by glacial lake outbursts and landslides. Active debris flows are growing in both frequency of occurrences and spatial scale. Meanwhile, new types of disasters, such as the twin ice avalanches in Ali in 2016, are now appearing in the region. Adaptation and mitigation measures should be taken to help societies' preparation for future environmental challenges. Some key issues for future TP studies are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to test the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity of major crops, including rice, wheat and maize, in specific districts of Pakistan. This is done by observing year-to-year fluctuations in rainfall and temperature in relation to agricultural productivity for the period 1981-2009. For estimation purposes, the production function technique is used to evaluate the relationship between climate and yield variability. The results show that higher amount of rainfall has a negative and significant impact on the production of all crops including wheat, rice and maize. It may be because unexpected rainfall in Pakistan during monsoon season severely damages crops. This result is consistent with our expectation that high level of rainfall would decrease agricultural productivity and contribute to food insecurity in Pakistan. However, variation in temperature displays a stable trend and has significant positive impact on crop yield. This is contrary to our expectation that high temperature results in low agricultural productivity. This analysis is useful from the stand point of policy makers and analysts as it will help them develop policies relating to improvement in agricultural sector in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a brief account of scientific research into solar geoengineering in India in the last decade. In recent years, solar geoengineering has been proposed as an option to ameliorate the detrimental impacts of climate change in case the required emissions reductions do not take place rapidly. Hundreds of research papers have been published in the last decade by both natural and social scientists on the feasibility, effectiveness, cost, and risks, and the ethical, legal, social, political, and governance dimensions of geoengineering. Most of this research is conducted in the developed world, and very little research or discussion has taken place in the global South. However, it has been argued in several forums that the developing world should have a central role in solar-geoengineering research, discussion, and evaluation for political and moral reasons. We present here a brief account of the Indian scientific research into solar geoengineering. Climate modeling constitutes the major component of this geoengineering-relevant climate science research. The recent funding initiative by the Department of Science and Technology—the main funding agency for scientific research in India—in support of geoengineering modeling research and its efforts to bring natural, social, and political scientists together for an evaluation of solar geoengineering at meetings are also discussed. Finally, the directions for future scientific research into geoengineering in India are a lso discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the assumptions, equations, and procedures of the RheaG weather generator algorithm (WGA). RheaG was conceived for the generation of robust daily meteorological time series, whether in static or transient climate conditions. Here we analyze its performance in four Iberian locations—Bilbao, Barcelona, Madrid, and Sevilla—with differentiated climate characteristics. To validate the RheaG WGA, we compared observed and generated meteorological time series' statistical properties of precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature for all four locations. We also compared observed and simulated rain events spell length probabilities in all four locations. Finally, RheaG includes two weather generation procedures: one in which monthly mean values for meteorological variables are unconstrained and one in which they are constrained according to a predefined baseline climate variability. Here, we compare the two weather generation procedures included in RheaG using the observed data from Barcelona. Our results present a high agreement in the statistical properties and the rain spell length probabilities between observed and generated meteorological time series. Our results show that RheaG accurately reproduces seasonal patterns of the observed meteorological time series for all four locations, and it is even able to differentiate two climatic seasons in Bilbao that are also present in the observed data. We find a trade-off between generation procedures in which the unconstrained procedure better reproduces the variability of monthly and yearly precipitation than the constrained one, but the constrained procedure is able to keep the same climatic signal across meteorological time series. Thus, the first procedure is more accurate, but the latter is able to maintain spatial autocorrelation among generated meteorological time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative for Soil Moisture (ESA CCI SM) merging algorithm generates consistent quality-controlled long-term (1978–2018) climate data records for soil moisture, which serves thousands of scientists and data users worldwide. It harmonises and merges soil moisture retrievals from multiple satellites into (i) an active-microwave-based-only product, (ii) a passive-microwave-based-only product and (iii) a combined active–passive product, which are sampled to daily global images on a 0.25∘ regular grid. Since its first release in 2012 the algorithm has undergone substantial improvements which have so far not been thoroughly reported in the scientific literature. This paper fills this gap by reviewing and discussing the science behind the three major ESA CCI SM merging algorithms, versions 2 (https://doi.org/10.5285/3729b3fbbb434930bf65d82f9b00111c; Wagner et al., 2018), 3 (https://doi.org/10.5285/b810601740bd4848b0d7965e6d83d26c; Dorigo et al., 2018) and 4 (https://doi.org/10.5285/dce27a397eaf47e797050c220972ca0e; Dorigo et al., 2019), and provides an outlook on the expected improvements planned for the next algorithm, version 5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines search and rescue and backcountry medical response constraints in the Canadian Arctic and potential for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to aid in response and preparedness. Semi-structured interviews (n = 18) were conducted with search and rescue responders, Elders, and emergency management officials to collect data on current emergency response and potential for UAV use. UAV test flights (n = 17) were undertaken with community members. We analyzed five years of weather data to examine UAV flight suitability. Numerous challenges face Arctic search and rescue and backcountry emergency response. Changing social and environmental conditions were described as increasing vulnerability to backcountry emergencies. Responders desired additional first aid and emergency training. Legal and weather restrictions were found to limit where, when and who could fly UAVs. UAVs were demonstrated to have potential benefits for hazard monitoring but not for SAR or medical response due to legal restrictions, weather margins, and local capacity. We find that communities are ill-prepared for ongoing SAR demands, let alone a larger disaster. There are numerous limitations to the use of consumer UAVs by Arctic communities. Prevention of backcountry medical emergencies, building resilience to disasters, and first responder training should be prioritized over introducing UAVs to the response system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Holocene climate variability in the Mediterranean Basin is often cited as a potential driver of societal change, but the mechanisms of this putative influence are generally little explored. In this paper we integrate two tools–agro-ecosystem modeling of potential agricultural yields and spatial analysis of archaeological settlement pattern data–in order to examine the human consequences of past climatic changes. Focusing on a case study in Provence (France), we adapt an agro-ecosystem model to the modeling of potential agricultural productivity during the Holocene. Calibrating this model for past crops and agricultural practices and using a downscaling approach to produce high spatiotemporal resolution paleoclimate data from a Mediterranean Holocene climate reconstruction, we estimate realistic potential agricultural yields under past climatic conditions. These serve as the basis for spatial analysis of archaeological settlement patterns, in which we examine the changing relationship over time between agricultural productivity and settlement location. Using potential agricultural productivity (PAgP) as a measure of the human consequences of climate changes, we focus on the relative magnitudes of 1) climate-driven shifts in PAgP and 2) the potential increases in productivity realizable through agricultural intensification. Together these offer a means of assessing the scale and mechanisms of the vulnerability and resilience of Holocene inhabitants of Provence to climate change. Our results suggest that settlement patterns were closely tied to PAgP throughout most of the Holocene, with the notable exception of the period from the Middle Bronze Age through the Early Iron Age. This pattern does not appear to be linked to any climatically-driven changes in PAgP, and conversely the most salient changes in PAgP during the Holocene cannot be clearly linked to any changes in settlement pattern. We argue that this constitutes evidence that vulnerability and resilience to climate change are strongly dependent on societal variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the 2016 Paris Agreement is in many ways an important attainment with the potential to represent a milestone in humanity’s path towards sustainable development, and avoid thus a potential calamitous and destructive future, the achievement of the goals set in the agreement is a long way off. This paper investigates one of the most important worldwide hurdles frustrating the implementation of the policies required to limit environmental degradation and limit pollution, namely the still insufficient public support for the necessary environmental policies and their associated cost. Using a comparative database generated through an experimental study on tax compliance and policy preferences run in five countries (USA, UK, Italy, Sweden and Romania), I will evaluate five explanatory models of the degree to which people support environmentally friendly policies by accepting higher tax burdens and increased collective solidarity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Knowledge about the environmental impact of alcohol is limited and as an effect alcohol is often excluded from environmental studies of diets or included in incomplete ways. This paper describes the climate impact of beer, wine and liquor by using life cycle assessment. The climate impact is quantified per litre of specific alcoholic beverages and per total amount of alcohol consumed based on self-reported data of 50 000 individuals from 2009 within two population-based cohorts in Sweden. The results show that alcoholic beverages generate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the range of 0.73–2.38 kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO 2 e) per litre. Alcohol consumption in the population studied generates on average 52 kg CO 2 e per person and year. Within the 10% of the population with the highest intake of alcohol GHG emissions are up to 202 kg CO 2 e per person and year. Consumption of wine is responsible for the largest share of GHG emissions from alcoholic beverages (61%) followed by beer (33%), while liquor and strong wine account for a smaller share (6%). Alcohol consumption among men generates 90% higher GHG emissions than among women. Alcohol consumption and in consequence alcohol-related emissions are decreasing with increasing age of men and women. Our results indicate that alcohol consumption in Swedish men and women is responsible for an average of 3% of total diet-related GHG emissions and in sub-populations with the highest consumption up to 6–11%. Limiting alcohol could be an effective option to reduce the climate impact of diets, especially among men. Graphical abstract Image 1 Highlights • Beer, wine and spirits generate 0.73–2.38 kg of CO 2 equivalents per litre. • Alcohol intake generated 52 kg of CO 2 equivalents per person and year. • Alcohol intake among men generates 90% higher GHG emissions than among women. • GHG emissions from alcohol intake decrease with increasing age. • Alcohol intake in Sweden is responsible for about 3% of dietary GHG emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5–6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top—the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that the term climate change comes forward with time. Furthermore, the term impact arises and points to research dealing with the various effects of climate change. The discussion of the question of human induced climate change towards a clear fact (for the majority of the scientific community) stimulated research on future pathways for adaptation and mitigation. Finally, the term model and related terms prominently appear independent of time, indicating the high relevance of climate modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word “climate” collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the emergence of a global climate change mitigation regime through an analysis of the language employed in international science-policy reports. We assume that a global climate regime can only operate effectively on the basis of a shared understanding of climate change which is itself based on a shared language of governance. We therefore carried out an in-depth thematic and metaphor analysis of 63 policy documents published between 1992 and 2012. Results show that global climate science-policy discourses universalise the myriad impacts of a changing climate into a single dichotomous impacted/not-impacted scenario and aim to govern this world according to economic principles of cost–benefit analysis. These discourses use metaphors that draw on narrative structures prevalent in the wider culture to produce and legitimate a reductionist representation of climate change. This representation undermines public understanding of and engagement with climate change by marginalising subordinate policy framings which do not align with the prevailing dichotomous framing. The types of documents we analyse in this paper represent important sources for journalists reporting on climate change. We therefore suggest that any attempt to improve public communication of climate change should include revisions to these organisational discourses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change is affecting food systems globally, with implications for food security, nutrition, and the health of human populations. There are limited data characterizing the current and future consequences of climate change on local food security for populations already experiencing poor nutritional indicators. Indigenous Amazonian populations have a high reported prevalence of nutritional deficiencies. This paper characterizes the food system of the Shawi of the Peruvian Amazon, climatic and non-climatic drivers of their food security vulnerability to climate change, and identifies potential maladaptation trajectories. Methods and findings: Semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 24), three photovoice workshops (n = 17 individuals), transect walks (n = 2), a food calendar exercise, and two community dissemination meetings (n = 30 individuals), were conducted within two Shawi communities in Balsapuerto District in the Peruvian Loreto region between June and September of 2014. The Shawi food system was based on three main food sub-systems (forest, farming and externally-sourced). Shawi reported collective, gendered, and emotional notions related to their food system activities. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of food security vulnerability among Shawi participants acted at proximal and distal levels, and mutually reinforced key maladaptation trajectories, including: 1) a growing population and natural resource degradation coupled with limited opportunities to increase incomes, and 2) a desire for education and deforestation reinforced by governmental social and food interventions. Conclusion: A series of maladaptive trajectories have the potential to increase social and nutritional inequities for the Shawi. Transformational food security adaptation should include consideration of Indigenous perceptions and priorities, and should be part of Peruvian food and socioeconomic development policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although substantial attention has focused on efforts by the new Administration to block environmental policies, climate politics have been contentious in the US since well before the election of Donald Trump. In this paper, we extend previous work on empirical examinations of echo chambers in US climate politics using new data collected on the federal climate policy network in summer 2016. We test for the similarity and differences at two points in time in homophily and echo chambers using Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) to compare new findings from 2016 to previous work on data from 2010. We show that echo chambers continue to play a significant role in the network of information exchange among policy elites working on the issue of climate change. In contrast to previous findings where echo chambers centered on a binding international commitment to emission reductions, we find that the pre-existing echo chambers have almost completely disappeared and new structures have formed around one of the main components of the Obama Administration’s national climate policy: the Clean Power Plan. These results provide empirical evidence that science communication and policymaking at the elite level shift in relation to the policy instruments under consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing globalisation and climate change are challenging the sustainability of our societies. It is now clear that climate change and its devastating impacts cannot be resolved by new technology or governance alone. They require a broader, cultural shift. As a result, the role of human beings' ‘inner dimensions’ and related transformations is attracting increased attention from researchers. Recent advances in neuroscience suggest for instance that mindfulness can open new pathways towards sustainability. However, the role of mindfulness in climate adaptation has been largely ignored. This paper is the first exploratory empirical investigation into linking individuals' intrinsic mindfulness (as opposed to outside mindfulness interventions) to pro- and reactive climate adaptation. Based on a survey of citizens at risk from severe climate events, we explore if, and how individual mindfulness is correlated with climate adaptation at different scales. The results show that individual mindfulness coincides with higher motivation to take climate adaptation actions or to support them, especially actions that are ‘other-focused’ or support pro-environmental behaviour. Mindfulness may also corroborate the acknowledgement of climate change and associated risk perception, and it may steer people away from fatalistic attitudes. We conclude with a call for more research into the relationship between human beings' inner dimensions and climate adaptation in the wider public domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impact research and risk assessment require accurate estimates of the climate change signal (CCS). Raw climate model data include systematic biases that affect the CCS of high-impact variables such as daily precipitation and wind speed. This paper presents a novel, general, and extensible analytical theory of the effect of these biases on the CCS of the distribution mean and quantiles. The theory reveals that misrepresented model intensities and probability of nonzero (positive) events have the potential to distort raw model CCS estimates. We test the analytical description in a challenging application of bias correction and downscaling to daily precipitation over alpine terrain, where the output of 15 regional climate models (RCMs) is reduced to local weather stations. The theoretically predicted CCS modification well approximates the modification by the bias correction method, even for the station–RCM combinations with the largest absolute modifications. These results demonstrate that the CCS modification by bias correction is a direct consequence of removing model biases. Therefore, provided that application of intensity-dependent bias correction is scientifically appropriate, the CCS modification should be a desirable effect. The analytical theory can be used as a tool to 1) detect model biases with high potential to distort the CCS and 2) efficiently generate novel, improved CCS datasets. The latter are highly relevant for the development of appropriate climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience strategies. Future research needs to focus on developing process-based bias corrections that depend on simulated intensities rather than preserving the raw model CCS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China’s FengYun 3 (FY-3) polar orbiting satellites are set to become an important source of observational data for numerical weather prediction (NWP), atmospheric reanalyses, and climate monitoring studies over the next two decades. As part of the Climate Science for Service Partnership China (CSSP China) program, FY-3B Microwave Humidity Sounder 1 (MWHS-1) and FY-3C MWHS-2 observations have been thoroughly assessed and prepared for operational assimilation. This represents the first time observations from China’s polar orbiting satellites have been used in the UK’s global NWP model. Since 2016, continuous data quality monitoring has shown occasional bias changes found to be correlated to changes in the energy supply scheme regulating the platform heating system and other transient anomalies. Nonetheless, MWHS-1 and MWHS-2 significantly contribute to the 24-h forecast error reduction by 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively, and the combination of both instruments is shown to improve the fit to the model background of independent sounders by up to 1%. The observations from the Microwave Radiation Imager (MWRI) also are a potentially significant source of benefits for NWP models, but a solar-dependent bias observed in the instrument half-orbits has prevented their assimilation. This paper presents the bases of a correction scheme developed at the Met Office for the purpose of a future assimilation of MWRI data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper by Scafetta entitled “High resolution coherence analysis between planetary and climate oscillations”, May 2016 claims coherence between planetary movements and the global temperature anomaly. The claim is based on data analysis using the canonical covariance analysis (CCA) estimator for the magnitude squared coherence (MSC). It assumes a model with a predetermined number of sinusoids for the climate data. The results are highly dependent on this prior assumption, and may therefore be criticized for being based on the opposite of a null hypothesis. More importantly, since values of key parameters in the CCA method are not given, some experiments have been performed using the software of the original authors of the CCA estimator. The purpose was to replicate the results of Scafetta using what was perceived to be the most probable parameter values. Despite best efforts, this was not possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to investigate the long-range correlation of monthly mean temperatures from three typical measurement stations at Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang in Northeast China from 1909 to 2014. The results reveal the memory characteristics of the climate system in this region. By comparing the temperatures from different time periods and investigating the variations of its scaling exponents at the three stations during these different time periods, we found that the monthly mean temperature has long-range correlation, which indicates that the temperature in Northeast China has long-term memory and good predictability. The monthly time series of temperatures over the past 106 years also shows good long-range correlation characteristics. These characteristics are also obviously observed in the annual mean temperature time series. Finally, we separated the centennial-length temperature time series into two time periods. These results reveal that the long-range correlations at the Harbin station over these two time periods have large variations, whereas no obvious variations are observed at the other two stations. This indicates that warming affects the regional climate system’s predictability differently at different time periods. The research results can provide a quantitative reference point for regional climate predictability assessment and future climate model evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Federal climate policy in the United States is still in its infancy and is in large part characterized by efforts to reach a consensus on the very existence and causality of climate change. This has stemmed from a sociopolitical rift within the country, with the objectivity and usefulness of science attacked by detractors. Scientists who are most qualified to defend their methods and provide information to policymakers rarely have an institutional incentive to share this knowledge, but should be encouraged to communicate their findings to the public, especially those who receive public funding. By not doing so, they are effectively 1) keeping data and their interpretations within the academy alone, despite their importance to the public welfare, 2) losing public support through inactivity, and 3) potentially harming the future availability of research support in what has rapidly become a politically polarized funding atmosphere. Archaeologists and geoscientists in particular, as repositories of past ecological knowledge established through one method (Western academic) of empirical examination, are well positioned to broadcast to the public a variety of societal responses to long-term environmental change as well as the repercussions of political reorganization in the wake of resource shortage-induced societal collapse. This paper summarizes a few promising public outreach engagements on environment and climate change, and suggests further venues for institutional change at the university level. As an example of how multi-causal socio-ecological processes can be concisely packaged for consumption by the public and policymakers without oversimplifying data, we present a synthesis of regional case studies from the New and Old Worlds. Case studies are connected through anthropological processes of cooperation versus exclusion, subsistence shifts, sociopolitical (re)organization and hierarchy, violence, and disease in a preliminary attempt a) to identify the emotional and anecdotal psychology of our own society when it comes to the chang-ing global environment, b) to discuss the issue of scalar differences between ancient and modern ecology, and c) to call on academics to introspectively alter our own attitudes and systems of incentives at the university level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of forest management in mitigating climate change is a central concern for the Canadian province of British Columbia. The successful implementation of forest management activities to achieve climate change mitigation in British Columbia will be strongly influenced by public support or opposition. While we now have increasingly clear ideas of the management opportunities associated with forest mitigation and some insight into public support for climate change mitigation in the context of sustainable forest management, very little is known with respect to the levels and basis of public support for potential forest management strategies to mitigate climate change. This paper, by describing the results of a web-based survey, documents levels of public support for the implementation of eight forest carbon mitigation strategies in British Columbia’s forest sector, and examines and quantifies the influence of the factors that shape this support. Overall, respondents ascribed a high level of importance to forest carbon mitigation and supported all of the eight proposed strategies, indicating that the British Columbia public is inclined to consider alternative practices in managing forests and wood products to mitigate climate change. That said, we found differences in levels of support for the mitigation strategies. In general, we found greater levels of support for a rehabilitation strategy (e.g. reforestation of unproductive forest land), and to a lesser extent for conservation strategies (e.g. old growth conservation, reduced harvest) over enhanced forest management strategies (e.g. improved harvesting and silvicultural techniques). We also highlighted multiple variables within the British Columbia population that appear to play a role in predicting levels of support for conservation and/or enhanced forest management strategies, including environmental values, risk perception, trust in groups of actors, prioritized objectives of forest management and socio-demographic factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local and indigenous knowledge is being transformed globally, particularly being eroded when pertaining to ecology. In many parts of the world, rural and indigenous communities are facing tremendous cultural, economic and environmental changes, which contribute to weaken their local knowledge base. In the face of profound and ongoing environmental changes, both cultural and biological diversity are likely to be severely impacted as well as local resilience capacities from this loss. In this global literature review, we analyse the drivers of various types of local and indigenous ecological knowledge transformation and assess the directionality of the reported change. Results of this analysis show a global impoverishment of local and indigenous knowledge with 77% of papers reporting the loss of knowledge driven by globalization, modernization, and market integration. The recording of this loss, however, is not symmetrical, with losses being recorded more strongly in medicinal and ethnobotanical knowledge. Persistence of knowledge (15% of the studies) occurred in studies where traditional practices were being maintained consiously and where hybrid knowledge was being produced as a resut of certain types of incentives created by economic development. This review provides some insights into local and indigenous ecological knowledge change, its causes and implications, and recommends venues for the development of replicable and comparative research. The larger implication of these results is that because of the interconnection between cultural and biological diversity, the loss of local and indigenous knowledge is likely to critically threaten effective conservation of biodiversity, particularly in community-based conservation local efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is a vital component of the global climate, and its rapid environmental evolution is an important element of climate change around the world. To detect and diagnose the changes occurring to the coupled Arctic climate system, a state-of-the-art synthesis for assessment and monitoring is imperative. This paper presents the Arctic System Reanalysis, version 2 (ASRv2), a multiagency, university-led retrospective analysis (reanalysis) of the greater Arctic region using blends of the polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) Model and WRF three-dimensional variational data assimilated observations for a comprehensive integration of the regional climate of the Arctic for 2000-12. New features in ASRv2 compared to version 1 (ASRv1) include 1) higher-resolution depiction in space (15-km horizontal resolution), 2) updated model physics including subgrid-scale cloud fraction interaction with radiation, and 3) a dual outer-loop routine for more accurate data assimilation. ASRv2 surface and pressure-level products are available at 3-hourly and monthly mean time scales at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Analysis of ASRv2 reveals superior reproduction of near-surface and tropospheric variables. Broadscale analysis of forecast precipitation and site-specific comparisons of downward radiative fluxes demonstrate significant improvement over ASRv1. The high-resolution topography and land surface, including weekly updated vegetation and realistic sea ice fraction, sea ice thickness, and snow-cover depth on sea ice, resolve finescale processes such as topographically forced winds. Thus, ASRv2 permits a reconstruction of the rapid change in the Arctic since the beginning of the twenty-first century-complementing global reanalyses. ASRv2 products will be useful for environmental models, verification of regional processes, or siting of future observation networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of climate adaptation planning there are relationships between adaptation drivers and adaptation measures, which makes the selection and implementation of the adaptation measures a challenging task. This challenge may be addressed by: structuring the adaptation problem using a multiple perspective adaptation framework; and applying a context specific precedence grammar logic for selecting and evaluating adaptation measures. Precedence grammar logic is a set of rule based algorithms (grammar) that are based on the relationships in a local adaptation context. This paper demonstrates the application of a context specific precedence grammar logic in an adaptation context in Can Tho, Vietnam. Adaptation pathways comprising flood adaptation measures (i.e. dike heightening) for this case were generated using rule based algorithms based on the relationships between the drivers and the adaptation measures. The results show that complex adaptation issues that are structured, can be resolved using a context specific adaptation grammar approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decadal prediction is a relatively new branch of climate science that bridges the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and multidecadal-to-century projections of climate change. This paper develops a three-step framework toward the potential application of decadal temperature predictions using the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). In step 1, the predictions are evaluated and it is found that the temperature hindcasts show skill over some regions of the United States and Canada. In step 2, the predictions are manipulated using two methods: a deterministic-anomaly approach (like climate change projections) and a probabilistic tercile-based approach (like seasonal forecasts). In step 3, the predictions are translated by adding a delta (for the anomaly manipulation) and conducting a weighted resample (for the probabilistic manipulation), as well as using a new hybrid method. Using the 2010 initialized hindcast, the framework is demonstrated for predicting 2011-15 over two case-study watersheds [Ottawa (Canada) and Colorado]. For the Colorado watershed, there was a noticeable shift toward higher temperatures, and the delta, weighted resample, and hybrid translations all were better at capturing the observed temperatures than was an approach that used climatological values. For the Ottawa watershed, the observed temperatures over the period of prediction were only subtly different than the climatological values; therefore, the difference between the translation methods was less noticeable. The advantages and disadvantages of the manipulation and translation approaches are discussed, as well as how their use will depend on the user context. The authors emphasize that skill evaluations should be tailored to particular applications and identify additional steps that are needed before the decadal temperature predictions can be readily incorporated into applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last several decades, extended dry periods have affected the Mediterranean area with dramatic impacts on water resources. Climate models are predicting further warming, with negative effects on water availability. The authors analyze the hydroclimatic tendencies of a typical Mediterranean basin, the Flumendosa basin located in Sardinia, an island in the center of the Mediterranean Sea, where in the last 30 years a sequence of dry periods has seriously impacted the water management system. Interestingly, in the historic record the annual runoff reductions have been more pronounced than the annual precipitation reductions. This paper performs an analysis that links this runoff decrease to changes in the total annual precipitation and its seasonal structure. The seasonality is a key determinant of the surface runoff process, as it reflects the degree to which rainfall is concentrated during the winter. The observed reductions in winter precipitation are shown here to be well correlated (Pearson correlation coefficient of 20.5) with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Considering the predictability of the winter NAO, there is by extension an opportunity to predict future winter precipitation and runoff tendencies. The recent hydroclimatic trends are shown to impact hydrologic design criteria for water resources planning. The authors demonstrate that there is a dangerous increase of the drought severity viewed from the perspective of water resources planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditionally, the daily average air temperature at a weather station is computed by taking the mean of two values, the maximum temperature (Tmax) and the minimum temperature (Tmin), over a 24-h period. These values form the basis for numerous studies of long-term climatologies (e.g., 30-yr normals) and recent temperature trends and changes. However, many first-order weather stations-such as those at airports-also record hourly temperature data. Using an average of the 24 hourly temperature readings to compute daily average temperature has been shown to provide a more precise and representative estimate of a given day's temperature. This study assesses the spatial variability of the differences in these two methods of daily temperature averaging [i.e., (Tmax 1 Tmin)/2; average of 24 hourly temperature values] for 215 first-order weather stations across the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the 30-yr period 1981-2010. A statistically significant difference is shown between the two methods, as well as consistent overestimation of temperature by the traditional method [(Tmax 1 Tmin)/2], particularly in southern and coastal portions of the CONUS. The explanation for the long-term difference between the two methods is the underlying assumption for the twice-daily method that the diurnal curve of temperature is symmetrical. Moreover, this paper demonstrates a spatially coherent pattern in the difference compared to the most recent part of the temperature record (2001-15). The spatial and temporal differences shown have implications for assessments of the physical factors influencing the diurnal temperature curve, as well as the exact magnitude of contemporary climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]