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Arid area is very sensitive to global warming and are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the water resources system in the arid area is fragile and will undergo tremendous changes with climate change. Therefore, the interaction of climate and hydrology in arid area has an important impact on the formation of regional microclimate and hydrological changes. Daihai Lake is a typical closed inland lake in arid area of China, and a key area for ecological protection in North China. In this paper, WRF-Hydro model is used to simulate the climate hydrological coupling situation of Daihai Basin from 1980 to 2020, and the coupling results are verified and calibrated by meteorological statistics, runoff calculation and remote sensing analysis. Based on the synopsis of climate and hydrology in the past 40 years, the causes and future trends of the hydrological elements in Daihai Basin are analyzed. Through the analysis, it is found that the interannual variation of precipitation in Daihai Basin is sharp, with 401.75 mm as the average from 1980 to 1994; and drastic fluctuations from 1995 to 2011, with a difference of nearly 400 mm between the interannual maximum and minimum; From 2012 to 2020, the fluctuation is small. Although the interannual variation of evaporation fluctuated, it showed an upward trend with a slope of 8.855 mm/year. The annual average temperature showed an obvious upward trend with a slope of 0.040 °C/year. From 1980 to 2020, the inflow of Daihai Lake shows a downward trend; Since 2013, the runoff into the lake has tended to be flat. Climate change and human activities are the decisive factors leading to the change of water quantity in Daihai, among which human activities play a greater role. Cultivated land irrigation and industrial water use are highly correlated with the lake discharge, and these two factors have a great influence on the lake discharge. If the current agricultural and industrial water consumption does not increase, Daihai still has a lifespan of nearly 120 years. If human activities do not change and any protective measures are not taken in time, under the background of global climate change, the flow of the Daihai Lake into the lake will be reduced to zero in 2025, and the Daihai Lake will completely dry up in 2031–2033. The study of climate hydrological coupling of long time series in Daihai Basin can not only make up for the lack of runoff data, but also provide the basis for water resources management, disaster prevention and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid area is very sensitive to global warming and are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the water resources system in the arid area is fragile and will undergo tremendous changes with climate change. Therefore, the interaction of climate and hydrology in arid area has an important impact on the formation of regional microclimate and hydrological changes. Daihai Lake is a typical closed inland lake in arid area of China, and a key area for ecological protection in North China. In this paper, WRF-Hydro model is used to simulate the climate hydrological coupling situation of Daihai Basin from 1980 to 2020, and the coupling results are verified and calibrated by meteorological statistics, runoff calculation and remote sensing analysis. Based on the synopsis of climate and hydrology in the past 40 years, the causes and future trends of the hydrological elements in Daihai Basin are analyzed. Through the analysis, it is found that the interannual variation of precipitation in Daihai Basin is sharp, with 401.75 mm as the average from 1980 to 1994; and drastic fluctuations from 1995 to 2011, with a difference of nearly 400 mm between the interannual maximum and minimum; From 2012 to 2020, the fluctuation is small. Although the interannual variation of evaporation fluctuated, it showed an upward trend with a slope of 8.855 mm/year. The annual average temperature showed an obvious upward trend with a slope of 0.040 °C/year. From 1980 to 2020, the inflow of Daihai Lake shows a downward trend; Since 2013, the runoff into the lake has tended to be flat. Climate change and human activities are the decisive factors leading to the change of water quantity in Daihai, among which human activities play a greater role. Cultivated land irrigation and industrial water use are highly correlated with the lake discharge, and these two factors have a great influence on the lake discharge. If the current agricultural and industrial water consumption does not increase, Daihai still has a lifespan of nearly 120 years. If human activities do not change and any protective measures are not taken in time, under the background of global climate change, the flow of the Daihai Lake into the lake will be reduced to zero in 2025, and the Daihai Lake will completely dry up in 2031–2033. The study of climate hydrological coupling of long time series in Daihai Basin can not only make up for the lack of runoff data, but also provide the basis for water resources management, disaster prevention and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early studies, northern vegetation response to global warming recognised both increases in biomass/cover and shrinking of species' distributional ranges. Subsequent field measurements focussed on vegetation cover and biomass increases ("greening"), and more recently decreases ("browning"). However, satellite observations show that more than 50% of arctic vegetation has not changed significantly despite rapid warming. While absence of change in remote sensing data does not necessarily mean no ecological change on the ground, the significant proportion of the Arctic that appears to be stable in the face of considerable climate change points to a greater need to understand Arctic ecosystem stability. In this paper, we performed an extensive review of the available literature to seek balances or imbalances between research focussing on "greening", "browning" and "stability/no change". We find that greening studies dominate the literature though two relatively small areas of the Arctic are disproportionately represented for this main change process. Critically, there are too few studies anywhere investigating stability. We highlight the need to understand the mechanisms driving Arctic ecosystem stability, and the potential longer-term consequences of remaining stable in a rapidly changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall are expected to have negative effects on ecosystem services by causing significant shrinkage or shift of forest distribution particularly in Mediterranean basin. In this study, it was aimed to determine the distribution of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky.) by modelling the current and future potential locations of the habitats. With Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach, we predicted its distribution under current and future conditions (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in Turkey. Modelling was performed by using eight bioclimatic variables that show significant relationship to the current distribution of oriental beech and were widely used in the literature. The fitted model had high quality (93.5% AUC) and is biological meaningful. The prediction of warmer condition in future showed that the populations on the southern slopes of the North Anatolian Mountains were expected to shrink and that there would be reduction in the populations found in the main distribution area in the Istranca Mountains and the Northern Anatolia, especially in populations in the transition zone of Central Anatolia. Also, oriental beech would lose its isolated-marginal populations in the southeast of Turkey. The results highlight the importance of a genetic conservation programme for beech population in Turkey. Otherwise, the genetic pools seem to extinct under climate change. Furthermore, the paper is intended to provide a starting point for a monitoring of oriental beech at the edge of its distribution, to observe its climatic migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the abstraction of classical physics and applies several metrics that explore the evolution of social opinion. These metrics include an abstraction of Newtonian kinematics: mass, position, speed, acceleration, and Newtonian dynamics, an abstraction of force. Poll data is fit to a 2nd-order polynomial and a logistic function. These fits are used to understand the acceleration of opinion shift, and we explore recent social, cultural, and environmental trends, such as views on global climate change. We compare our results with the evolution of communication technologies and time spent on devices over the past 120 years. We show that the model connects the evolution in opinion with an abstraction of a Galilean concept: acceleration is independent of mass. Finally, we discuss the model of social polarization and the non-linear effect of media such as echo chambers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phosphorus (P) is an essential element to all living beings but also a finite resource. P-related problems center around broken P cycles from local to global scales. This paper presents outcomes from the 9th International Phosphorus Workshop (IPW9) held 2019 on how to move towards a sustainable P management. It is based on two sequential discussion rounds with all participants. Important progress was reported regarding the awareness of P as finite mineable resource, technologies to recycle P, and legislation towards a circular P economy. Yet, critical deficits were identified such as how to handle legacy P, how climate change may affect ecosystem P cycling, or working business models to up-scale existing recycling models. Workshop participants argued for more transdisciplinary networks to narrow a perceived science-practice/policy gap. While this gap may be smaller in reality as illustrated with a Swiss example, we formulate recommendations how to bridge this gap more effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice continues to decline across many regions of the Arctic, with remaining ice becoming increasingly younger and more dynamic. These changes alter the habitats of microbial life that live within the sea ice, which support healthy functioning of the marine ecosystem and provision of resources for human-consumption, in addition to influencing biogeochemical cycles (e.g. air–sea CO2 exchange). With the susceptibility of sea ice ecosystems to climate change, there is a pressing need to fill knowledge gaps surrounding sea ice habitats and their microbial communities. Of fundamental importance to this goal is the development of new methodologies that permit effective study of them. Based on outcomes from the DiatomARCTIC project, this paper integrates existing knowledge with case studies to provide insight on how to best document sea ice microbial communities, which contributes to the sustainable use and protection of Arctic marine and coastal ecosystems in a time of environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid change: sea ice is being lost, waters are warming, coastlines are eroding, species are moving into new areas, and more. This paper explores the many ways that a changing Arctic Ocean affects societies in the Arctic and around the world. In the Arctic, Indigenous Peoples are again seeing their food security threatened and cultural continuity in danger of disruption. Resource development is increasing as is interest in tourism and possibilities for trans-Arctic maritime trade, creating new opportunities and also new stresses. Beyond the Arctic, changes in sea ice affect mid-latitude weather, and Arctic economic opportunities may re-shape commodities and transportation markets. Rising interest in the Arctic is also raising geopolitical tensions about the region. What happens next depends in large part on the choices made within and beyond the Arctic concerning global climate change and industrial policies and Arctic ecosystems and cultures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of occurrence of snow cover and the impact of atmospheric circulation on the snow cover occurrence in the period 1966/1967–2019/2020 in Poznań (Poland) have been examined. The implementation of the primary study objective covers the comprehensive analysis of the winter snow and thermal conditions using various indicators. This paper is based on daily data from the years 1966–2020 concerning the winter period. Winters in Poznań are highly variable and differentiated, considering the duration of particular seasons, number of days with snow cover, mean snow cover thickness, winter snowiness coefficient, or winter severity index. Negative trends concerning days with snow cover total snow cover depth winter snowiness coefficient and winter severity index in Poznań prove statistically significant. A higher probability of occurrence of snow cover was determined during cyclonic than anticyclonic circulation. The westerly and northerly types especially favoured the occurrence of days with snow cover. The increase of snow cover was associated with the northerly inflow mainly. Westerly types of circulation caused the decrease of snow cover predominantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents an assessment of the rates of erosion and sedimentation in hollows of the Temeva Rechka small dry valley catchment, dominated by forest-steppe gray forest soils (Luvic Retic Greyzemic Phaeozems), over the past 55–60 years with the use of the radiocesium technique. This catchment is located in the Myosha River basin (Republic of Tatarstan, European Russia). The hollows have been grouped by the catchment's slope aspects, hollow length, hollow bottom gradient, and shape of the thalweg profile of the hollow bottoms; origin and age, as well as by the specifics of erosion/sedimentation processes. Short agrogenic hollows with a small catchment area on relatively steep western slopes of the Temeva Rechka small dry valley, probably formed after human deforestation, have been identified. The shape of their catchments contributes to the formation of surface runoff, sufficient for the erosion of a significant part of their bottoms at a rate of about 2–4 t/ha per year. Older, polygenetic, and relatively long hollows with a slightly sloping bottom and larger catchments serve as sediment transit zones between plowed areas and the Temeva Rechka small dry valley bottom. They are characterized by alternating areas of soil erosion and sediment accumulation. The average rate of soil erosion in these landforms is 0.8 t/ha per year. In some hollows, when several small tributaries (smaller hollows) flow into their lower parts, soil erosion loss increases to 3 t/ha per year. The average soil erosion loss is 6 t/ha per year on short slopes of the hollows; in their upper parts, it can reach 11 t/ha per year. There is a general decrease in the rates of soil erosion and accumulation of eroded material in recent decades due to changes in climate and land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding past changes in the characteristics of climate extremes forms an essential part of viable countermeasures to cope with climate-induced risks in a rapidly warming world. Thus, this paper endeavored to explore possible non-monotonic trend components in heavy rainfall events over the Central Highlands (Vietnam) by employing Şen's innovative trend analysis method in conjunction with the well-defined extreme rainfall indices. The outcomes show less spatially coherent trends in the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme rainfall events across the study area, and most analyzed indices exhibited non-monotonic trend forms. The overall trends in the intensity and frequency, represented by maximum 1-day, 5-day precipitation amount (Rx1day, Rx5day), very and extremely wet days (R95p and R99p), and the number of very and extremely heavy precipitation days (R20mm and R50mm), were characterized by significant increases at three or four sites. Concerning dry and wet extremes, observed increases in consecutive dry days (CDD) and decreases in consecutive wet days (CWD) were identified significantly simultaneously at three sites. There is high domination of significant increases in high-value subgroups of these indices. Several sites also exposed significantly increasing trend behaviors in these indices within all low-, medium-, and high-value subgroups, thereby implying the intensity and frequency have intensified over recent decades. This study also indicated potential linkages between annual peaks of several extreme rainfall indices, characterizing intensity, frequency, and wet duration, usually coincided with negative Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña events, while dry extremes were usually found during El Niño events based on correlation analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing Laspeyres index, Paasche's index, and Fisher's index under classical statistics cannot be applied when observations are indeterminate, imprecise, and uncertain. In this paper, the Laspeyres index, Paasche's index, and Fisher's index are introduced to deal with the data having neutrosophy. We present these indexes when indeterminacy is present in the data. To see the aggregate change in the production of rice crops due to climate change under an uncertain environment, data is collected from nine districts of Punjab, Pakistan. From the data and comparative studies, it is concluded that the proposed indexes are more informative, flexible, and suitable to be applied under indeterminate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses three aspects of Bio Art: iconography, artificial life, and wetware. The development of models for innovation require hybrid practices which generate knowledge through epistemic experimental practices. The intersection of art and the biological sciences contain both scientific data as well as the visualization of its cultural imagination. In the Bio Art Lab at the School of Visual Arts, artists use the tools of science to make art. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate, land-use and pollution are having disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity of arctic and mountain ecosystems. While these impacts are well-documented for many areas of the Arctic and alpine regions, some isolated and inaccessible mountain areas are poorly studied. Furthermore, even in well-studied regions, assessments of biodiversity and species responses to environmental change are biased towards vascular plants and cryptogams, particularly bryophytes are far less represented. This paper aims to document the environments of the remote and inaccessible Altai-Sayan mountain mires and particularly their bryofloras where threatened species exist and species new to the regional flora are still being found. As these mountain mires are relatively inaccessible, changes in drivers of change and their ecosystem and biodiversity impacts have not been monitored. However, the remoteness of the mires has so far protected them and their species. In this study, we describe the mires, their bryophyte species and the expected impacts of environmental stressors to bring attention to the urgency of documenting change and conserving these pristine ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological shifts in plant species are one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change impact on the biosphere. Modeling phenological variations of plant species over broad regions is challenging because of the varied climatic requirements of geographic populations due to local adaptation. In this study, we developed an empirical method to calibrate phenological models of temperate trees using latitude as a predictor to account for local adaptation of populations to a N–S temperature gradient. Fourteen widely distributed tree species in the eastern U.S.A. were investigated using data from the USA-National Phenology Network. We implemented the method in a basic thermal time bud break model to introduce the algorithm of the method and test its effectiveness. For each species, dates of breaking leaf buds were first predicted using a traditional non-spatial model and then with a spatial model that has the critical thermal forcing requirements calibrated for different populations at varied latitudes. As anticipated, non-spatial model predictions that assumed a uniform forcing requirement across latitudes showed consistent and systematic biases at both higher (overestimation-predictions being later) and lower (underestimation-predictions being earlier) latitudes. Spatial models that have been calibrated using our method removed the geographic biases and yielded latitudinal gradients that more closely matched those of the observations. The spatial models also reduced the overall prediction errors from an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 32.2 days to 20.4 days for the training dataset and an average root mean square error for prediction (RMSEP) of 32.2 days to 19.9 days for the testing dataset. This paper is focused on introducing the new calibration method as a preparatory step toward developing operational models that may potentially predict large-scale and range-wide phenological responses of various plant species to climatic changes with improved local accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses how recent trends in heat waves impact heat warning systems. We performed a retrospective analysis of the challenges faced by the French heat prevention plan since 2004. We described trends based on the environmental and health data collected each summer by the French heat warning system and prevention plan. Major evolutions of the system were tracked based on the evaluations organized each autumn with the stakeholders of the prevention plan. Excess deaths numbering 8000 were observed during heat waves between 2004 and 2019, 71% of these between 2015 and 2019. We observed major changes in the characteristics, frequency and the geographical spread of heat waves since 2015. Feedbacks led to several updates of the warning system such as the extension of the surveillance period. They also revealed that risk perception remained limited among the population and the stakeholders. The sharp increase in the number of heat warnings issued per year since 2015 challenges the acceptability of the heat warnings. Recent heat waves without historical equivalent interfere with the development of evidence-based prevention strategies. The growing public health impacts heat waves emphasize the urgent need to act to adapt the population, at different levels of intervention, from individual comportments to structural modifications. A specific attention should be given to increase the resources allocated to the evaluation and the management of heat-related risks, especially considering the needs to catch with the rapid rhythm of the changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on heat waves (periods of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity) is a newly emerging research topic within the field of climate change research with high relevance for the whole of society. In this study, we analyzed the rapidly growing scientific literature dealing with heat waves. No summarizing overview has been published on this literature hitherto. We developed a suitable search query to retrieve the relevant literature covered by the Web of Science (WoS) as complete as possible and to exclude irrelevant literature (n = 8,011 papers). The time evolution of the publications shows that research dealing with heat waves is a highly dynamic research topic, doubling within about 5 years. An analysis of the thematic content reveals the most severe heat wave events within the recent decades (1995 and 2003), the cities and countries/regions affected (USA, Europe, and Australia), and the ecological and medical impacts (drought, urban heat islands, excess hospital admissions, and mortality). An alarming finding is that the limit for survivability may be reached at the end of the twenty-first century in many regions of the world due to the fatal combination of rising temperatures and humidity levels measured as "wet-bulb temperature" (WBT). Risk estimation and future strategies for adaptation to hot weather are major political issues. We identified 104 citation classics, which include fundamental early works of research on heat waves and more recent works (which are characterized by a relatively strong connection to climate change). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather generators (WGs) are one of the major downscaling tools for assessing regional climate change impacts. However, some deficiencies in the performance of WGs have limited their usage. This paper presents a method for correcting the low-frequency variability (LFV) of precipitation in the improved weather generator (IWG) model. The method is based on bias correction in the monthly precipitation distribution of the generated daily series. The performance of the modified model was tested directly by comparing the statistics of generated and observed weather data for 14 stations, and also indirectly by comparing the characteristics of simulated stream-flows of a basin from the simulation run based on generated and observed weather data. The results showed that the method not only corrected the LFV of precipitation but also improved the reproduction of many other statistics. The provided IWG2 model can serve as a useful tool for the downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) scenarios to assess regional climate change impacts, especially hydrological effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant changes in climate variables in the last decades resulted in changes of perceived climate conditions. However, there are only few studies discussing long-lasting changes in bioclimatic conditions. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to present the temporal and spatial distribution of hazardous heat and cold stress conditions in different regions of Poland. Its focus is on long-lasting changes in such conditions in the period 1951–2018. To assess changes in hazardous thermal stress conditions, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was used. UTCI values at 12 UTC hour (respectively 1 pm winter time, 2 pm summer time) were calculated daily based on air temperature, relative humidity, total cloud cover and wind speed at 24 stations representing the whole area of Poland. We found that the greatest changes were observed in minimum (1.33 °C/10 years) and average (0.52 °C/10 years) UTCI values as well as in cold stress frequency (− 4.00 days per 10 years). The changes vary seasonally and regionally. The greatest increase in UTCImin and decrease in cold stress days were noted from November to March and had the highest values in north-east and east Poland, and also in the foothills of the Carpathian Mountains. The trends in maximum UTCI are much smaller and not always positive. The spatially averaged trend in UTCImax for Poland as a whole was 0.35 °C/10 years and the increase in heat stress days was 0.80 days/10 years. The highest increases in UTCImax and heat stress days were noted in eastern and south-eastern Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both global climate change and urbanization trends will demand adaptation measures in cities. Large agglomerations and impacts on landscape and natural environments due to city growth will require guided densification schemes in urban areas, particularly in developing countries. Human biometeorological indices such as the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) could guide this process, as they provide a clear account of expected effects on thermal sensation from a given change in outdoor settings. However, an earlier step should optimally include an adequacy test of suggested comfort and thermal stress ranges with calibration procedures based on surveys with the target population. This paper compares obtained thermal comfort ranges for three different locations in Brazil: Belo Horizonte, 20° S, Aw climate type; Curitiba, 25.5° S, Cfb subtropical climate, both locations in elevation (above 900 m a.s.l.); and Pelotas, at sea level, latitude 32° S, with a Cfa climate type. In each city, a set of outdoor comfort field campaigns has been carried out according to similar procedures, covering a wide range of climatic conditions over different seasons of the year. Obtained results indicate a variation of neutral temperatures up to 3 °C (UTCI units) as a possible latitude and local climate effect between the southern locations relative to the northernmost location. Low UTCI values were found in the two subtropical locations for the lower threshold of the thermal comfort band as compared with the original threshold. A possible explanation for that is a longer exposure to cold conditions as buildings are seldom provided with heating systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses the temporal and spatial variability of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in Poland in summer. Summer is the season with the highest intensity of tourism traffic that is why it is important to determine biometeorological conditions, especially in popular tourist destinations such as coastal, mountain and urban areas, in the times of climate changes. The analysis was based on data from 18 stations of IMGW-PIB (Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute), distributed evenly in the territory of the country, and representing all eight bioclimatic regions. The data include air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and cloudiness at 12 UTC from summer months: June, July and August from the years 2001–2018. Thermoneutral zone was the most frequently occurring UTCI class in Poland. It was recorded during 56–75% of summer days (with the exception of mountain stations, where it occurred on 30–35% of days). Moderate heat stress is the second most frequently occurring category with a frequency from 18 to 29% with the exception of mountain and coastal areas. Extreme and very strong cold stress occurred particularly in high mountain stations, and was sporadically observed at the coast of the Baltic Sea; however, the occurrence of such conditions decreases, which if favourable for beach tourism. No cases of extreme heat stress were recorded in any of the stations. The most unfavourable bioclimatic conditions were characteristic of the Upland Region (IV), represented by Kraków and Sandomierz, where very strong heat stress occurred with a 10% frequency. This is a limitation for urban tourism in those regions. The highest UTCI values were recorded in Kraków on 17 July 2007 and 29 July 2005. The highest number of cases with strong and very strong heat stress was recorded in 2015 as a consequence of the heat wave observed in Poland in the first half of August. In the majority of the analysed stations, in the second half of the analysed period (2010–2018), an increase in the number of days with strong and very strong heat stress was observed in comparison with the first half of period (2001–2009). The highest frequency of such days was observed in July. Based on the data, there are 4 potential periods of occurrence of such days, with two most intense being 26. July–13 August and 14–22 July. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past 50 years, temperatures on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have risen roughly twice as fast as the global average, making it the most unpredictable region of environmental change due to global warming. In this paper, an Environmental Area Index model was developed using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to assess the ecological risk faced by QTP ecosystems under the influence of climate factors. The results show that ecological risk gradually decreases from northwest to the southeast, and there are different trends in ecological risk for each class in areas with different elevation gradients. As elevation increased, the proportion of potential risk areas gradually decreased, and the proportion of high- and higher-risk areas gradually increased. We predict that in the period 2021–2100, the overall ecological risk change trend on the QTP will not be obvious, but there will be a more obvious change on the vertical gradient. In general, under the existing global climate change scenario, the ecological risk faced by the QTP show a decreasing trend under the influence of climate factors, and the decrease in ecological risks is much higher at higher elevations than at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public health is threatened by climate change and extreme temperature events worldwide. Differences in health predispositions, access to cooling infrastructure and occupation raises an issue of heat-related health inequality in those vulnerable and disadvantaged demographic groups. To address these issues, a comprehensive understanding of the effect of elevated body temperatures on human biological systems and overall health is urgently needed. In this paper we look at the inner workings of the human innate immunity under exposure to heat stress induced through exposure to environment and physical exertion. We couple two experimentally validated computational models: the innate immune system and thermal regulation of the human body. We first study the dynamics of critical indicators of innate immunity as a function of human core temperature. Next, we identify environmental and physical activity regimes that lead to core temperature levels that can potentially compromise the performance of the human innate immunity. Finally, to take into account the response of innate immunity to various intensities of physical activities, we utilise the dynamic core temperatures generated by a thermal regulation model. We compare the dynamics of all key players of the innate immunity for a variety of stresses like running a marathon, doing construction work, and leisure walking at speed of 4 km/h, all in the setting of a hot and humid tropical climate such as present in Singapore. We find that exposure to moderate heat stress leading to core temperatures within the mild febrile range (37, 38] ∘ C , nudges the innate immune system into activation and improves the efficiency of its response. Overheating corresponding to core temperatures beyond 38 ∘ C , however, has detrimental effects on the performance of the innate immune system, as it further induces inflammation, which causes a series of reactions that may lead to the non-resolution of the ongoing inflammation. Among the three physical activities considered in our simulated scenarios (marathon, construction work, and walking), marathon induces the highest level of inflammation that challenges the innate immune response with its resolution. Our study advances the current state of research towards understanding the implications of heat exposure for such an essential physiological system as the innate immunity. Although we find that among considered physical activities, a marathon of 2 h and 46 min induces the highest level of inflammation, it must be noted that construction work done on a daily basis under the hot and humid tropical climate, can produce a continuous level of inflammation triggering moieties stretched at a longer timeline beating the negative effects of running a marathon. Our study demonstrates that the performance of the innate immune system can be severely compromised by the exposure to heat stress and physical exertion. This poses significant risks to health especially to those with limited access to cooling infrastructures. This is due in part to having low income, or having to work on outdoor settings, which is the case for construction workers. These risks to public health should be addressed through individual and population-level measures via behavioural adaptation and provision of the cooling infrastructure in outdoor environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canopy phenology is sensitive to variability in local environmental settings. In temperate climates, urban phenological processes and their determinants are relatively well understood. Equivalent understanding of processes in tropical urban settings is, however, less resolved. In this paper, we explore the influence of local urban environmental characteristics (that is, degree of urbanization, land cover and urban climate) on canopy phenology of two deciduous tree species (Jacaranda mimosifolia, n = 48, and Tabebuia rosea, n = 24) in a tropical city (Kampala, Uganda). Our study design involved ground monitoring and field sampling in 2017, with a focus on the dry season. We found that both species experienced significantly higher rates of canopy cover decline in heavily built-up neighborhoods (p < 0.05 for both species). Moreover, Jacaranda was more sensitive to differences in the degree of urbanization than Tabebuia, both in terms of total percentage tree canopy cover (p < 0.01) and net leaf loss (p < 0.05). Total percentage tree canopy cover for Jacaranda declined with increasing proportion of impervious cover (that is, roads and paved cover) and was positively related to relative humidity (p < 0.01), a variable correlated with soil moisture. Net leaf loss in Jacaranda increased with the decreasing proportion of pervious land cover and as nighttime air temperature increased (p < 0.01). In contrast, land cover and urban climate had no significant influence on either measure of phenological traits for Tabebuia. These results provide new evidence of the effect of urbanization on canopy phenology of different tree species in the tropics. Such knowledge offers new insights into the spatial and temporal differences in the physiological functional traits of trees and also serves as a proxy for possible species responses under future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature-based solutions (NBS) for mitigating climate change are gaining popularity. The number of NBS is increasing, but research gaps still exist at the governance level. The objectives of this paper are (i) to give an overview of the implemented NBS for flood risk management and mitigation in Germany, (ii) to identify governance models that are applied, and (iii) to explore the differences between these models. The results of a hierarchical clustering procedure and a qualitative analysis show that while no one-size-fits-all governance model exists, polycentricism is an important commonality between the projects. The study concludes by highlighting the need for further research on traditional governance model reconversion and paradigm changes. We expect the findings to identify what has worked in the past, as well as what is important for the implementation of NBS for flood risk management in future projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air temperature is the main climatic variable for climate change and global warming assessment. In different regions, different climatic features and forcing factors affect air temperature behaviour and development differently. In this paper, time series of monthly and annual absolute minimum, mean and absolute maximum air temperatures measured in the period Jan. 1949–Dec. 2018 at two meteorological stations, Zagreb Grič and Lastovo, were analysed. The stations are situated in distinct climatological areas in geographically and climatologically completely opposite parts of Croatia. The climate of Zagreb Grič station is mild continental. Station Lastovo is located on the small isolated Adriatic Sea island, which has a hot Mediterranean climate. The distance by air between the two analysed meteorological stations is 340 km. In time series of the absolute annual minimum air temperatures measured at both analysed stations, an increasing trend is not statistically significant, while in the time series of mean annual and absolute annual maximum air temperatures, the trends are statistically significant at the level p<0.01. The statistically significant trend of air temperature increase at both stations appeared in the warm season of the year generally from May to August. The day-to-day (DTD) method established a decrease in night-time to night-time air temperature variability, and an increase in the day-time to day-time temperature variability at Lastovo. In Zagreb Grič, the situation is the opposite but the process is very slow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a multi-carrier energy system or energy hub in which natural gas and electricity resources are used as inputs. The output demand profile includes electrical, heating and cooling energy, which is evaluated in four seasons. The significant differences in simulations and evaluation of the considered energy hub in different seasons have led to climate variation, resulting in higher electrical energy consumption in warmer seasons than thermal energy, while it is contrariwise in the cold season. When the customers are willing to participate in the demand response programs, total energy consumption decreases, and this can only change the pattern of customer consumption in the warmer seasons. A mixed-integer linear programing (MILP) formulation for this optimization problem is proposed and solved using the CPLEX solver in general algebraic modeling system (GAMS). Simulations of the energy hub system, including renewable wind and solar sources, will confirm and verify that the model provided represents a growth in energy hub profit, reducing the cost of purchased power from electricity grid as well as decreasing cost of social welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is expected to have a major impact on the hydrological cycle. Understanding potential changes in future extreme precipitation is important to the planning of industrial and agricultural water use, flood control, and ecological environment protection. In this paper, we study the statistical distribution of extreme precipitation based on historical observation and various global climate models (GCMs), and predict the expected change and the associated uncertainty. The empirical frequency, generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, and L-moment estimator algorithms are used to establish the statistical distribution relationships and the multi-model ensemble predictions are established by the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. This ensemble forecast takes advantage of multi-model synthesis, which is an effective measure to reduce the uncertainty of model selection in extreme precipitation forecasting. We have analyzed the relationships among extreme precipitation, return period, and precipitation durations for 6 representative cities in China. More significantly, the approach allows for establishing the uncertainty of extreme precipitation predictions. The empirical frequency from the historical data is all within the 90% confidence interval of the BMA ensemble. For the future predictions, the extreme precipitation intensities of various durations tend to become larger compared to the historic results. The extreme precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario is greater than that under the RCP2.6 scenario. The developed approach not only effectively gives the extreme precipitation predictions, but also can be used to any other extreme hydrological events in future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The upper part of the subsurface component of the Earth's cryosphere—polygonal peatlands—are considered in this paper. The polygonal peatlands are widespread in the cryolithozone in northwestern Siberia. When the upper permafrost layer thaws under the influence of climatic fluctuations, the ice-bearing transition and intermediate layers in the polygonal peatlands serve as a buffer zone. Therefore, the identification of these layers is a crucial task. The specific features of the layers, their relationship with ice of various origins, and the properties of peat have been determined. The differences in the structure of the intermediate layer, associated with polygonal microrelief of the surface, have been revealed. Thawing of the transitional layer against the background of modern warming has been recorded on the basis of monitoring of a seasonally thawed layer. To identify the transitional and intermediate layers, the indicators—the cryogenic structure, degree of preservation, color, water content, and density of peat—have been determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Homelessness is a persistent global challenge with significant health impacts on those affected. Homeless people are by definition the most exposed to weather conditions and the social and economic problems caused by extreme weather and climate change and variability. This systematic review was designed to synthesize the academic literature that addresses the health and social implications of global climate change for homelessness. The question examined in this systematic scoping review is the following: What is the current state of knowledge in the scientific literature on the health and social implications of global climate change for homelessness? A systematic scoping review method was used to identify and synthesize the peer-reviewed literature relevant to this question. The databases searched were PsycINFO, Medline, Scopus, and Google Scholar. Of the 26 papers identified in this review, 20 employed original data analyses with conclusions largely inferred from cross-sectional associations. Themes included the potential influence of climate change on homelessness prevalence, climate impacts that exacerbate specific vulnerabilities of homeless populations (e.g., chronic illness, exposure, stigmatization), and health and social outcomes. Service use and design implications were also addressed. Given the scale of the impacts of climate change on homelessness, the literature on this topic poses promising directions but is under-developed in its current state to adequately inform risk mitigation and response planning. A systems framework is proposed here to inform future research and service design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the late 1970s, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has shown a significant weakening trend, and sustained drought has occurred across North China. Placing recent climate changes in the paleoclimatic context can better understand the EASM variations. Four δ18O sequences based on tree-ring cellulose of Chinese pine were developed from Mt. Beiwudang, North China, covering a period from 1700 to 2013. Based on a climatic response analysis, a transfer function was designed to reconstruct the relative humidity from July to August (RHJA hereafter). The RHJA spans from 1765 to 2013 and explains 49% (R2adj= 48%) of the instrumental variance during the calibration period (1961–2013, r = − 0.70, p < 0.0001). The RHJA is mainly influenced by precipitation in the summer rainy season and reflect EASM variations. Spatial representation analysis indicates that RHJA represents the dry/wet variations across North China. At the interannual scale, RHJA records many extreme dry/wet events, among which the events in 1876–1878, 1900, and the 1920s are extensive droughts. Those events correspond well to ENSO events, plus further correlation and periodicity analysis indicate that RHJA contains ENSO signals. At the interdecadal scale, RHJA shows a decreasing trend and unprecedented low values from 1981 to 2013, suggesting that the weakening of EASM since the late 1970s is unprecedented in the past 249 years. Similarly, the significantly correlating region in the spatial correlation analysis, covering the Meiyu/Baiu/Changma rainfall belt and India, have also undergone a climatic shift since the late 1970s according to previous papers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates the use of climatological data and published information to develop a thaw-freeze/freeze-kill indicator for fruit trees during flowering. In fruit-producing regions, when budding and flowering occur before the last spring freeze, a freeze-kill event can cause substantial losses. As spring onset is occurring earlier with climate change, thaw-freeze events have the potential to become more of a hazard both in terms of current production and in terms of potential adaptation strategies. To model the spring thaw-freeze and its magnitude or intensity, we proposed an indicator based on the accumulation of daily minimum temperature between successive freezing dates and its maximum value over the spring. This indicator was tested on apple and peach production in southern Ontario, Canada, using data from eight climate stations in southern Ontario. The indicator showed promise in its utility in that its magnitude was greater when freezing occurred after blooming and it was demonstrated to be correlated to the estimated blooming dates of apple and peach fruits grown in southern Ontario. The annual series was shown to fit the generalized extreme value distribution thereby allowing the extreme risk to be modelled and the return period to be calculated. It was also shown that the reported thaw-freeze events that caused significant apple and peach losses had a return period on the order of 10 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unsaturated clay deposits swell and shrink as a result of seasonal variations in climatic conditions and affect the performance of underground infrastructure systems. This paper investigates the response of a 150-mm PVC pipe buried in a highly plastic clay deposit under field conditions. A numerical model was established to integrate the daily climatic conditions. To accurately model field performance, the developed numerical model incorporated the use of a bimodal soil water characteristic curve (SWCC) and the simulation of the hydraulic characteristics of a cracked soil structure. The model results showed that the response of both the soil and the pipe was influenced by soil properties (native and backfill), the depth below the ground surface, and most importantly, the surface boundary condition (sealed versus unsealed surface). Although the pipe trench was covered by a pavement structure, the backfill material consisting of granular materials (i.e., mixed concrete) showed a noticeable variation in volumetric water content (VWC) with time. It was also observed that the effects of the atmosphere extended below the pipe burial depth to a depth of 4 m in the clay soil surrounding the trench. While the pipe trench was backfilled with a non-expansive material, the pipe experienced fluctuating displacements throughout the year. Finally, the model was utilized to give insight into the actual flux transferred through the pavement structure to the backfill material surrounding the pipe. It was predicted that approximately 30% of the surface net flux permeated the pavement structure and interacted with the underlying backfill materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although ski tourism in China is experiencing a boom, and the number of operating ski areas has significantly increased, the influence of climate change on the future development of China's ski industry has so far largely been overlooked. This paper addresses this important gap by applying the ski season simulation model SkiSim 2.0 at 116 ski areas. Four main indicators of climate change impact were examined: ski season length, operational ski days in economically important season segments, technically produced snow and snowmaking requirements. For all ski resorts in China and all climate change scenarios, average ski seasons are projected to shorten (− 4 to − 61% RCP 4.5; − 6 to − 79% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s) while snowmaking needs increase (27 to 51% RCP 4.5; 46 to 80% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s). The results indicate that high regional differences in climate change vulnerability exist. The implications for altered competitiveness and development potential of the ski industry in China are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important link between carbon and water cycles, which is critical for the forests under future global climatic changes. WUENDVI was calculated by accumulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and actual evapotranspiration (ET) and could reflect the impacts of climatic changes and human activities on WUE. The three forestry regions of China are the northeast, southwest, and southeast areas. Among them, the northeast forest region is a natural forest region with forest stock accounting for more than 1/4 of China, and the southwest mountainous forest region is another natural forest region in China, with forest stock accounting for more than 1/3 of China, while the southeast forest area is mainly plantations. In 2018, the forest areas over three forestry regions of China were around 1,725,988 km2. This paper evaluated the changes in forest WUE and their relationships with climatic change and human activities over three forestry regions of China during 1961–2019. The main findings of this study were summarized as follows: (1) the spatial changes of WUE were gentle in the artificial forest region but fluctuant sharply in the natural forest regions. In the southwest forest region, the WUE increased with elevation, while it showed the opposite trends in the artificial forest region. Overall, the annual mean forest WUE increased in almost all regions of the study areas during 1961-2019; (2) in the northeast and southeast forest regions, the WUE presented a negative relationship with the temperature. In the southwest forest region, the WUE was positively correlated with the temperature and its increase rate slowed down significantly when the temperature increases by more than 1 °C. The WUE was negatively correlated with precipitation in the three regions and was more sensitive to the decrease of precipitation. The sensitivity of WUE to precipitation reduction was highest in the artificial forest region and lowest in the northeast forest region; (3) the forest WUE and WUENDVI were lowest in the artificial forest region but highest in the northeast forest region, while the net increase in forests area during 1980–2018 was largest in the artificial forest region (155,975 km2) but lowest in the northeast forest region (78,766 km2). In general, human activities had the greatest impact on the forest WUE in the northeast forest region. Human activities and climatic change had quite complex and interactive effects on forest WUE. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the joint influences of climate change and human activities on WUE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in amount and frequency of runoff are caused by interaction of the climatic and anthropogenic factors in human-nature system. Those part of the runoff variations caused by anthropogenic loadings are more manageable compared with climate effects occurring over a long period. In this paper, we propose a framework to decompose the effect of anthropogenic and climatic time series on streamflow. To fulfill this task, anthropogenic time series attribution (ATSA) method is introduced. ATSA employs the output of climate elasticity (CE) method to extract human-affected time series and naturalizes the annual streamflow. In other words, ATSA makes it possible to exploit CE output in time series analysis. Furthermore, temporal downscaling process performed by a hybrid discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural network (DWT-ANN) enhances the temporal resolution of ATSA. We applied ATSA framework on Urmia Lake (northwest of Iran) inflow over the 1972–2010 period. CE application indicated that the contribution of climatic and anthropogenic factors in reduction of the mean inflow to the lake is about 60 and 40%, respectively. ATSA also revealed how human exploitation affected the time series of the lake inflow. Roughly, 14,000 MCM of the lake inflow reduction was attributed to the anthropogenic impacts between 1995 and 2010 such that the removal of anthropogenic loading could have led to rising water level up to 1275.5 meters above the sea level (i.e., 1.4 m above the ecological level) in 2010. Furthermore, the effect of de-trended inflow time series was investigated via DWT-ANN. Trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW-MK) test indicated significant increase in temperature, potential evapotranspiration, population, reservoir capacity, irrigated area, and the number of wells, over 39 years of the study period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has generated seasonal and extended range hindcast products for 1981–2008 and 2003–2016, respectively, using the IITM-Climate Forecast System (IITM-CFS) coupled model at various resolutions and configurations. Notably, our observational analysis suggests that for the 1981–2008 period, the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, the canonical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). are significantly associated with the observed Kharif rice production (KRP) of various rice-growing Indian states. In this paper, using the available hindcasts, we evaluate whether these state-of-the-art retrospective forecasts capture the relationship of the KRP of multiple states with the local rainfall as well as the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, the canonical ENSO, ENSO Modoki, and the IOD. Using techniques of anomaly correlation, partial correlation, and pattern correlation, we surmise that the IITM-CFS successfully simulate the observed association of the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers with the local rainfall of many states during the summer monsoon. Significantly, the observed relationship of the local KRP with various climate drivers is predicted well for several Indian states such as United Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Odisha, and Bihar. The basis seems to be the model's ability to capture the teleconnections from the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers such as the IOD, canonical and Modoki ENSOs to the local climate, and consequently, the Kharif rice production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the capacity animals and plant to shift with the changing climates and habitats. Plants and animals tend to shift with the changes at a phenomenal speed, according to global ecologist Christopher Field of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California. While Carnegie postdoc Scott Loarie said that species who are used to the tropics tend to prefer continuous forests, than forest fragments.

The article reports that the balmier climate of recent years has helped the mountain pine beetle of western North America reach ever-higher latitudes and elevations, resulting in the largest recorded outbreak of this insect. An effort to catalogue and predict the effects of the outbreak reveals that the destruction of pine forests by growing beetle populations will contribute to climate change. Werner Kurz, a forest ecologist with the Canadian Forest Service in Victoria, British Columbia, believes that the only way to stop the beetle is to kill it and its host which means cutting down and burning infected trees.

The article presents the debate of the development of new species and the extinction of others. The reason given is climate change, or the ability to compete. Scientists collected and studied rodent fossils spanning more than 22 million years. They conclude that the human-induced extinction had exceeded the extinction caused by either global climatic ahanges or competetion with other species.

Eutrophication, i.e. nutrient over-enrichment, has been a topic for academic and societal debate for the past five decades both on land and in aquatic systems fed by nutrients as diffuse loading from agricultural lands and as wastewater from industrial and municipal point-sources. The use of nutrients (primarily nitrogen and phosphorus) in excess became a problem with the onset of large-scale production and use of artificial fertilizers after World War II, and the effects on the aquatic environment became obvious some two to three decades later. In this Perspective, four seminal papers on eutrophication are discussed in light of the current knowledge of the problem, including future perspectives and outlooks in the light of global climate change and the demand for science-based holistic ecosystem-level policies and management options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate change impact appears as a decreasing or increasing monotonic trend in hydro-meteorology time series records due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions causing to global warming and climate change impacts. On the other hand, there may be abrupt changes in the form of jumps in these series due to natural and engineering activities. Although trend identification methods are rather common in the literature, jump determination conventional methodologies are rather rare and their applications present some restrictive asumptions like the serial independence and normal (Gaussian) probability distribution function (PDF). The methodology presented in this paper is away from each of such assumptions and it depicts the minimum number of upcrossing along horizontal truncation levels within the time series variation domain. The applications of the methodology are given for annual Danube River discharge records, Romania; New Jersey rainfall and temperature records, USA; monthly rainfall records and Van Lake level fluctuations, Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDFs) curves generally were developed based on stationary extreme value assumption. However, climate change is expected to alter extreme rainfalls and invalidate the stationary assumption. So, it is crucial to develop future rainfall IDFs taking into account the impacts of climate change. Difficulty in preparing reliable rainfall time series with fine time step and capturing extremes for future climate scenarios has led to limited studies aimed at investigating the change of IDF curves due to climate change. In this paper, a robust stochastic rainfall model (NSRP) is employed to produce future rainfall IDFs for five stations across Karkheh and Karun basins in Iran. NSRP can generate long-term realistic rainfall series containing extremes. Moreover, it applies changes in different rainfall statistical characteristics, projected by GCMs, in the downscaling procedure. For each station, the model was calibrated using observed rainfalls series. Then, 3000-year daily rainfall series were generated, and historical IDFs were developed. Consequently, NSRP parameters were perturbed based on GCM projections. Then, 3000-year future rainfall series were generated, and future IDFs were developed. The climate change uncertainties were represented by employing two GCM (CanESM2 and HadGem2) and three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The results showed NSRP is able to reproduce observed extreme rainfalls in a wide range of time scales. Also, climate change will lead to a considerable increase in future extreme rainfall intensity in the study basins. As averages of all considered scenarios, rainfall intensities will increase between 22 and 206% in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disturbance to ecosystems in parks and protected areas from nature-based tourism and recreation is increasing in scale and severity, as are the impacts of climate change—but there is limited research examining the degree to which these anthropogenic disturbances interact. In this perspective paper, we draw on the available literature to expose complex recreation and climate interactions that may alter ecosystems of high conservation value such that important species and processes no longer persist. Our emphasis is on ecosystems in high demand for tourism and recreation that also are increasingly experiencing stress from climate change. We discuss the importance of developing predictive models of direct and indirect effects, including threshold and legacy effects at different levels of biological organization. We present a conceptual model of these interactions to initiate a dialog among researchers and managers so that new research approaches and managerial frameworks are advanced to address this emerging issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early adolescence (12–13 years old) is a critical but under-researched demographic for the formation of attitudes related to climate change. We address this important area by exploring adolescent views about climate change. This paper presents opinions collected from surveys of 463 1st-year secondary school students (12–13 years old) in public secondary schools in inner-urban centres in Austria and Australia on whether climate change is (1) something about which to worry, (2) caused by humans and (3) happening now. Eligible respondents in both countries showed similar levels of agreement that climate change was probably or definitely something we should (1) worry about (84.6% Austria, 89.1% Australia), which is significantly higher than either country's adult population. Eligible respondents agreed that climate change probably or definitely is (2) caused by humans (75.6% Austria, 83.6% Australia) and that climate change is probably or definitely something that is (3) happening now (73.1% Austria, 87.5% Australia). Their response differed from the respective adult populations, but in opposite directions. Our results suggest that socio-cultural worldview may not have as much influence on this age group as it does on the respective adult populations and suggests that this age group would be receptive and ready for climate science education and engagement initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change in recent decades is accompanied by rising temperatures and increasing cyclonic activity with strong air flows. How do they affect soil respiration? Is it possible to expect an increase in CO2 emissions and, consequently, a positive feedback of climate change through the greenhouse effect? These questions cannot be answered without the insight into the effect of wind speed on the gas exchange between soil and atmosphere in different landscapes. The paper summarizes the long-term measurements of CO2 efflux from forest-steppe chernozems (Kursk oblast, Russia) in natural and anthropogenic landscapes with forest or herbaceous vegetation depending on wind speed; it presents a physically grounded approach to its quantitative first-approximation (linear) description. The approach assumes an impact of wind through increased forced convection and turbulent diffusivity along with a potential reduction in diffusion mass transfer due to a decrease in the gradient of CO2 concentration between the atmosphere and soil. The constructed inverse parabolic dependence adequately describes the empirical data and assumes a twofold increase in the emission with the wind speed increase to the critical value of 3 m/s and its decreases to the initial level with the further wind speed increase to 6–7 m/s. The intensity of forced convection of soil air turns out to be by five–six orders of magnitude lower than the wind speed in the atmosphere but not inferior to the intensity of conventional isothermal CO2 diffusion, which suggests that this mechanism is to be taken into account in the models of soil–atmosphere gas exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the oil spill, which occurred in the Norilsk and Taimyr region of Russia due to the collapse of the fuel tank at the power station on May 29, 2020. We monitored the snow, ice, water, vegetation and wetland of the region using data from the Multi-Spectral Instruments (MSI) of Sentinel-2 satellite. We analyzed the spectral band absorptions of Sentinel-2 data acquired before, during and after the incident, developed true and false-color composites (FCC), decorrelated spectral bands and used the indices, i.e. Snow Water Index (SWI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The results of decorrelated spectral bands 3, 8, and 11 of Sentinel-2 well confirmed the results of SWI, NDWI, NDVI, and FCC images showing the intensive snow and ice melt between May 21 and 31, 2020. We used Sentinel-2 results, field photographs, analysis of the 1980–2020 daily air temperature and precipitation data, permafrost observations and modeling to explore the hypothesis that either the long-term dynamics of the frozen ground, changing climate and environmental factors, or abnormal weather conditions may have caused or contributed to the collapse of the oil tank. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine pollution impacts coastal nations around the world, and more so: (a) in confined maritime areas with significant marine traffic, (b) where exploitation of natural and mineral resources is taking place, or (c) in regions witnessing pressure from tourism, local population growth, and industry. In this work, Digital Elevation Models, hydrographic, and climatic data are used together with computer simulations to understand the control of climate change on marine pollution. The results show that different climate change signals can potentially alter the flow and concentration of pollution in the European Seas, when compared to the present day. Ultimately, this work identifies the main sources of marine pollution as: (1) rivers and streams near cities and industrialised areas, (2) coastal areas experiencing sudden demographic pressures, (3) offshore shipping lanes in which oil and other marine debris are released, and (4) areas of rugged seafloor where industrial fishing takes place. This paper finishes by describing new educational material prepared to teach school children around the world. It explains why how a new training curriculum and e-game developed by Sea4All can be crucial in future Environmental Education and Education for a Sustainable Development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trend identification analyses in any hydrometeorological data are necessary and critical for predictions and planning in many disciplines such as atmospheric, environmental, and oceanographic sciences; water engineering; global warming; and climate change applications. In the literature, many researches have employed trend analyses by Mann-Kendall (MK) and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods. Especially in recent years, the ITA method is preferred in trend identification methodological applications, because it can present trend graphs with visual inspection, verbal inferences, and objective quantitative calculations. In this paper, the trends of sea surface temperature (SST) data are identified by the MK and ITA methods on double logarithmic graphs, which provide fractal geometrical appearances with power law features. The SST data trends are evaluated at 22 coastal area stations of Turkey with monthly records from 1969 to 2014. According to the MK trend test, only 6 of the 22 stations had a significant upward trend at 5% significant level and 4 of these stations are in the Mediterranean Sea coastal area. At 10% significance level increasing trend numbers become 14 stations. According to the MK test results, the data records have been grouped into two parts as warming and cooling periods considering the physical conditions of the SST data. On the other hand, the results of ITA application provide average behavioral form according to the mathematical power law equations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, air conditioning (AC) is the most effective means for the cooling of indoor space. However, its increased global use is problematic for various reasons. This paper explores the challenges linked to increased AC use and discusses more sustainable alternatives. A literature review was conducted applying a transdisciplinary approach. It was further complemented by examples from cities in hot climates. To analyse the findings, an analytical framework was developed which considers four societal levels—individual, community, city, and national. The main challenges identified from the literature review are as follows: environmental, organisational, socio-economical, biophysical and behavioural. The paper also identifies several measures that could be taken to reduce the fast growth of AC use. However, due to the complex nature of the problem, there is no single solution to provide sustainable cooling. Alternative solutions were categorised in three broad categories: climate-sensitive urban planning and building design, alternative cooling technologies, and climate-sensitive attitudes and behaviour. The main findings concern the problems arising from leaving the responsibility to come up with cooling solutions entirely to the individual, and how different societal levels can work towards more sustainable cooling options. It is concluded that there is a need for a more holistic view both when it comes to combining various solutions as well as involving various levels in society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]