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The main purpose of this study is to understand influences of bulk structure of geomaterials on water storage and transfer, in order to assess durability and climate change impact on the UNESCO world heritage sites in Alexandria, Egypt. This study deals with the responses of water towards the physiochemical and physicomechanical behaviours of Calcarenitic rocks, that are utilized in Greek and Roman monuments at Alexandria. Many vulnerable archaeological sites [2.3–2.5 m above mean sea level (M.S.L)] are identified at Alexandria, specifically at the Eastern Harbor, El-Shatby the Greek necropolis and Moustafa Kamil Roman tombs and addition to the Roman Catacombs of Kom El-Shoqafa which excavated with deepth − 18 m from the land surface. These UNESCO heritage sites suffer climate change impact (heavy rains and sea water rising) as well as multiple geoenvironmental and geophysical hazards. In this study a general outline of the various tests, surveys and analyses is presented, highlighting the most important issues related to the durability and climate change impact. This paper represents the comprehensive in-situ, field and laboratory surveys and tests undertaken in these outstanding world heritage sites. The field testing program comprises various geotechnical and geophysical field and laboratory tests aiming to define the physical, mechanical and dynamic properties of the hard soils/soft rock materials of the archaeological sites where these outstanding monuments are excavated and constracted. By analysis of linear correlations, some essential mechanisms should be underlined, which may connect the macrostructure to the microstructure of the geomaterial. A systematic method of analysis clearly appeared and emphasized the role of the bulk structure (i.e. grain size, grain contact, specific area, pore shape and microporosity) on petrophysical and petromechanical behavior of rock materials. The study revealed that the petrophysical and geomechanical properties of Calcarenitic rocks are influenced by size, shape, packing of grains, porosity, cement and matrix content, all controlled strongly by depositional fabric and postdepositional processes. The accurate analysis of the physiochemical and physicomechanical behaviours of Calcarenitic rocks that are utilized in Greek and Roman monuments at Alexandria allowed us to define the pathology of these monuments and to estimate the durability, climate change impact and ultimate geostatic loads that they can survive under their present geoenvironmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interplay of climate change, upstream hydropower development, and local water engineering interventions for agricultural production contributes substantially to the transformation of waterscapes and water scarcity in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. This paper aims to examine how these dynamics are linked to the paradigm shift in water management in An Giang and Ben Tre, the two ecologically distinct provinces that face serious water scarcity in the delta. We used the adaptive management concept to examine how state-led policy directions from food security towards water security enable change in water management that gives priority to water retention. While policy learning is evident, questions remain about how this ad-hoc solution could help address the presently acute water scarcity and water security over the long term. The paper advocates achieving water security should focus not only on diplomatic interventions into upstream climate-development complexities but also local water-livelihood politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensity and frequency of climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts and extreme rainfall events are projected to rise. This will increase the severity of their impacts across socio-ecological systems. Economic sectors such as nature-based tourism become more vulnerable because of their reliance on climate and natural capital as key resources. While attempts have been made to understand how climate change may impact tourists and the industry itself, little is known about the same on tourism-dependent communities. This paper determines the extent to which tourism-dependent communities are vulnerable to climate change in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, to enhance their wider livelihood the development of strategies for improving adaptive capacity, resilience, and reduced exposure sensitivities. A household survey of 172 households was conducted in three purposively selected villages of Mababe, Sankuyo and Khwai, actively involved in community-based tourism for their socio-economic development. Information sourced related to livelihood options, peoples’ resilience, local risks, and hazards. The data was analysed using descriptive statistics and thematic analysis. The results indicate that respondents have observed climatic changes over the years such as increased temperatures, decreased rainfall, and increased frequencies of extreme events. The respondents attributed changes in natural capital to these observed climatic conditions in the form of desiccation, dwindling populations of some wildlife species, decreased fish stocks and reduced vegetation cover. This renders the tourism-dependent communities vulnerable as their livelihood is threatened. The paper thus concludes that climate change adaptation is an urgent priority for local communities who are already exposed to existing climatic and non-climatic stresses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the severe effects of climate change on the agricultural sector, urgent action is required on the part of farmers and is, indeed, critical to reducing climate change impacts. However, reports globally revealed farmers' engagement in climate change adaptation is still insufficient, ambivalent, and inconsistent and farmers do not consider adaptation to be urgent. Researchers have argued that this issue is rooted in psychological biases beside other factors. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate how psychological distance determines climate change beliefs, risk perception and adaptation strategies among Iranian farmers. A cross-sectional paper-based survey was conducted in the Dasht-e Azadegan county of Khuzestan province in southwest Iran. The study sample consisted of 250 farmers selected through a multi-stage random sampling process. An expert panel review and a pilot study were conducted to confirm convergent validity and reliability of the scales. The results confirm that all four dimensions of psychological distance influence water management adaptation strategies and non-farm activities. Moreover, all psychological dimensions, except the temporal dimension, affect adaptation in farming management. Thus, making climate change more proximal to decision makers could be a strategic way of encouraging individuals to take adaptive actions. This study emphasizes that concepts of psychological distance can be applied to help organizations (e.g., agriculture extension services) to understand farmers' risk perceptions and responses to climate change impacts and improve risk communication to better engage farmers in climate action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban surfaces are often covered by impermeable materials such as concrete and asphalt which intensify urban runoff and pollutant concentration during storm events, and lead to the deterioration of the quality of surrounding water bodies. Detention ponds are used in urban stormwater management, providing two-fold benefits: flood risk reduction and pollution load minimization. This paper investigates the performance of nine proposed detention ponds (across the city of Renton, Washington, USA) under different climate change scenarios. First, a statistical model was developed to estimate the pollutant load for the current and future periods and to understand the effects of increased rainfall on stormwater runoff and pollutant loads. The Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model (PCSWMM) platform is employed to calibrate an urban drainage model for quantifying stormwater runoff and corresponding pollutant loads. The calibrated model was used to investigate the performance of the proposed nine (9) detention ponds under future climate scenarios of 100-year design storms, leading to identifying if they are likely to reduce stormwater discharge and pollutant loads. Results indicated significant increases in stormwater pollutants due to increases in rainfall from 2023 to 2050 compared to the historical period 2000–2014. We found that the performance of the proposed detention ponds in reducing stormwater pollutants varied depending on the size and location of the detention ponds. Simulations for the future indicated that the selected detention ponds are likely to reduce the concentrations (loads) of different water quality constituents such as ammonia (NH3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrate (NO3), total phosphate (TP), and suspended solids (SS) ranging from 18 to 86%, 35–70%, 36–65%, 26–91%, and 34–81%, respectively. The study concluded that detention ponds can be used as a reliable solution for reducing stormwater flows and pollutant loads under a warmer future climate and an effective adaptation option to combat climate change related challenges in urban stormwater management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we first review the research advancements in blocking dynamics and highlight the merits and drawbacks of the previous theories of atmospheric blocking. Then, the dynamical mechanisms of atmospheric blocking are presented based on a nonlinear multi-scale interaction (NMI) model. Previous studies suggested that the eddy deformation (e.g., eddy straining, wave breaking, and eddy merging) might lead to the formation and maintenance of atmospheric blocking. However, the results were speculative and problematic because the previous studies, based on the time-mean eddy-mean flow interaction model, cannot identify the causal relationship between the evolution of atmospheric blocking and the eddy deformation. Based on the NMI model, we indicate that the onset, growth, maintenance, and decay of atmospheric blocking is mainly produced by the spatiotemporal evolution of pre-existing upstream synoptic-scale eddies, whereas the eddy deformation is a concomitant phenomenon of the blocking formation. The lifetime of blocking is mainly determined by the meridional background potential vorticity gradient (PVy) because a small PVy favors weak energy dispersion and strong nonlinearity to sustain the blocking. But the zonal movement of atmospheric blocking is associated with the background westerly wind, PVy, and the blocking amplitude. Using this NMI model, a bridge from the climate change to sub-seasonal atmospheric blocking and weather extremes might be established via examining the effect of climate change on PVy. Thus, it is expected that using the NMI model to explore the dynamics of atmospheric blocking and its change is a new direction in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Documenting trends in the health impacts of ambient temperature is key to supporting adaptation strategies to climate change. This paper explores changes in the temperature-related mortality in 18 French urban centers between 1970 and 2015. Method: A multicentric time-series design with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models was adopted to model the shape of the relationship and assess temporal changes in risks and impacts. Results: The general shape of the temperature-mortality relationship did not change over time, except for an increasing risk at very low percentiles and a decreasing risk at very high percentiles. The relative risk at the 99.9th percentile compared to the 50th percentile of the 1970–2015 temperature distribution decreased from 2.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.95:2.79] in 1975 to 1.33 [95% CI: 1.14:1.55] in 2015. Between 1970 and 2015, 302,456 [95% CI: 292,723:311,392] deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperatures, corresponding to 5.5% [95% CI: 5.3:5.6] of total mortality. This burden decreased progressively, representing 7.2% [95% CI: 6.7:7.7] of total mortality in the 1970s to 3.4% [95% CI: 3.2:3.6] in the 2000s. However, the contribution of hot temperatures to this burden (higher than the 90th percentile) increased. Discussion: Despite the decreasing relative risk, the fraction of mortality attributable to extreme heat increased between 1970 and 2015, thus highlighting the need for proactive adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For an effective reservoir operation during drought, the variations of both water supply and water demand which depend on hydrological and meteorological conditions need to be dealt with. This paper aimed to consider these variations in the Aharchay basin (Iran) by coupling a hedging rule (HR)-based reservoir operation model (HRROM) with a climate-based irrigation scheduling model (CBISM) at the farm level. Through the HRROM, optimal long-term decisions for Sattarkhan reservoir were made by considering the probable streamflow scenarios in the system. Given the variable agricultural demands (VAD) in the CBISM, the irrigation water was optimally allocated to the crops using several evapotranspiration (ET) scenarios. The CBISM employs three sub-models including linear programming (LP), nonlinear programming (NLP), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to maximize the total income of the Aharchay agricultural network as a function of the climate factors and the supplied water. To this end, the daily weather and discharge data from 1990 to 2015 were used in this study. The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the streamflow drought index (SDI) were used to detect the meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. The SPEI was calculated based on the high-resolution-gridded datasets of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). The findings demonstrated that the HRROM-CBISM generally managed to increase the time-based (αt) and volume-based (αv) reliability indices by 20% and 44%, respectively, compared with the conventional standard operation policy (SOP). For more investigations, the three major droughts of 2000–2002, 2004–2006, and 2008–2014 were separately analyzed. The average values of αt, αv, and vulnerability (V) for SOP were 0.33, 0.51, and 0.48, respectively. With the HRROM-CBISM, these values were about 0.5, 0.55, and 0.45, respectively. Among these indices, αt had the highest variations, while αv had the lowest variations in both the SOP and HRROM-CBISM approaches. The average water shortage for the mentioned droughts was significantly decreased from 89 (SOP) to 75 MCM (HRROM-CBISM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming can lead to a more frequent occurrence of hot days and heat waves and fewer cold days and cold waves. In this paper, the daily mean temperature (TM) was divided into 7 range categories (TM < − 15 °C, − 15 °C ≤ TM < − 5 °C, ... TM ≥ 35 °C). Then, the temperature days (TDs) were obtained and expressed as TD1, TD2, ..., TD6, and TD7, which correspond well to climate zones. The changes in future TDs are obvious, especially for TD1 and TD6. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, TD1 will decrease the most in the polar climate zone, from 162 to 102, while TD6 in warm tropical countries and regions, such as Brazil, Nigeria, and Congo, will increase by more than 70 days, reaching at least 300 days per year after 2066. By summarizing the anomalies of TD1, TD2, TD6, and TD7 in combination into 12 templates, the changes in TD1 and TD2 were determined to be more pronounced than those in TD6 and TD7. Although carbon dioxide emissions will remain basically stable from 2066 to 2095 under the RCP4.5 scenario, both TD1 and TD2 will decrease in central Antarctica, Eastern Europe, and northern Russia, and the melting of ice and snow will be irreversible. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Australia will still face a continuous increase in both TD6 and TD7. Temperature range changes also affect the humidity of the climate: in the projected future, humid climate areas will decrease, while arid climate areas will increase. The boreal drylands in the middle and high latitudes will be replaced by temperate drylands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent statistical analysis of natural catastrophes reveals a rise in the number and intensity of incidents worldwide due to climate change. As a result, the urgency of utilizing cutting-edge technology to mitigate its damaging impacts is palpable. This paper presents a novel method aiming at increasing resilience which is based on (1) the installation of intelligently managed remote switches and (2) the optimization of the capacity of the Distributed Generations (DGs) considering the number of sensitive loads. The purpose of this study is to determine appropriate zoning by considering established limits and technical constraints imposed by a certain number of DGs. Each DG is considered to cover a portion of the loads, allowing for the restoration of additional high priority loads with the lowest available capacity in each region. The optimized system's primary function is input using the LP-metric technique with equal weight coefficients. The MILP optimization subject will identify the ideal Microgrid (MG) combinations for reclaiming the highest amount of load. The findings imply that the proposed scenarios are efficient in terms of the problem's stated objective function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal inundation is increasing globally. Changes in tidal water levels contribute to flood risk alongside rain and sea storm events. Unlike the latter, temporal variations in tides may be predicted and their patterns analyzed many years in advance. This paper explains two novel methods for characterizing monthly scale patterns in tidal water level variation: one simple qualitative method with restricted applicability; and another more complex quantitative method with global applicability to areas characterized by mixed, mainly semidiurnal and mixed, mainly diurnal tide regimes (~ 65% of global oceans). We reveal that in some areas tidal high and low waters are balanced in near symmetrical patterns, while elsewhere tides are skewed towards upper or lower tidal height envelopes. Areas characterized by tidal patterns skewed towards upper envelopes are at heightened risk of extreme event inundations during certain periods each year, event scale risks that will increase with climate changes. Those skewed towards lower tidal envelopes are prone to frequent flooding and are potentially at greater risk of chronic inundation with ongoing mean sea level rise. Our findings and the novel tidal pattern classification approaches offered contribute to understanding the time varying nature of tidal contributions to coastal inundation risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In weather sciences, the two specific terms "storm" and "cyclone" frequently appear in literature and usually refer to the violent nature of a number of weather systems characterized by central low pressure, strong winds, large precipitation amounts in the form of rain, freezing rain, or snow, as well as thunder and lightning. But what is the connection between these two specific terms? In this paper, the historic evolutions of the terms "storm" and "cyclone" are reviewed from the perspective of weather science. The earliest recorded storms in world history are also briefly introduced. Then, the origin of the term "meteorological bomb", which is the nickname of the "explosive cyclone" is introduced. Later, the various definitions of explosive cyclones given by several researchers are discussed. Also, the climatological features of explosive cyclones, as well as the future trends of explosive cyclones under global climate change, are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large range of climate change impacts is expected during the twenty-first century in vulnerable regions such as West Africa, where local populations largely rely on livestock systems as their main food production and income source. As climate change threatens livestock systems in various ways, here we assess how regional livestock could be exposed to cumulated climate-related stressors in the future. Using the world's largest multi-model climate impacts simulations database ISIMIP, we find that a large part of West Africa will experience at least 5–6 cumulated multiple climate stressors before the 2030s, including amplified severe heat stress conditions and flood risks. Consequently, about 30% of the current total regional livestock could be exposed to these cumulated stressors, with sheep and goat as the most affected species. This paper brings new quantifications that may help policy makers to prioritize decisions that could prepare local populations to face multiple climate-related impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical inland capture fisheries are susceptible to a series of vulnerabilities such as habitat destruction, biodiversity loss, pollution, overfishing, invasive species and anthropogenic climate change. A comprehensive review of the impact of climatic uncertainties on Indian inland fisheries has not been adequately attempted yet. Recent approaches emphasizing ecosystem-based management in a regional context, specific to inland fisheries for combating climatic changes, have not been reported to date. The paper presents a critical bibliometric review of the climatic vulnerabilities faced by Indian inland fishery resources and various adaptive and mitigation strategies put forward by the country for the sustainability of the resources. In this communication, a systematic review of the impact of climate change and other stressors on various inland ecosystems of the subcontinent and the ecosystem-based management strategies adopted in India is presented and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall in the Moist Tropical Caribbean Region (MTCR) in Costa Rica occurs practically throughout the year, with the quarters June–August (JJA) and December–February (DJF) concentrating over 70% of annual rainfall. Contrarily, in March–April and September–October, it rains below 100 mm per month. This seasonal rainfall behavior makes the region ideal for producing bananas (Musa spp.) and pineapple (Ananas comosus) for export (10% and 8% of total exports in 2021, respectively). A national-scale study determined that agriculture in the MTCR is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate changes. However, the climate in this region has been poorly studied so far. This research analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of annual, monthly, and seasonal (DJF, JJA, SO) rainfall in the MTCR and how they change in the study period based on quality-checked series of daily rainfall from 28 weather stations in two periods: 1985–2009 and 1997–2019. The results show that rainfall regimes in the region are variable in space and throughout the year, with peaks occurring close to the mountain range and minimum values close to the coast. Trends were statistically significant in the period 1985–2009 with a predominance of significant positive trends in DJF and significant negative trends in SO. No significant trends (positive or negative) were observed in the period 1997–2019. JJA rainfall has uneven regional distribution and presents a positive and significant trend in the mountain region. This paper contributes to filling the knowledge gap in rainfall seasonality, variability, and trends in a region where banana and pineapple commercial plantations are fundamental to the country's economy thus providing information to decision-making in the agri-food sector to reduce the negative impacts of changing rainfall regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to quantify how human-made changes in the upstream exacerbate climate change impacts on water birds' habitat in the downstream. To reduce climate change effects and design adaptation policies, it is important to identify whether human activities understate or overstate the effects of climate change in a region on its inhabitants. This paper also shows how human activities may magnify climate change impacts both locally and regionally. Land-use/land-cover change as the important sign of human-made destruction in an ecosystem was detected in the upstream of the Helmand basin over 40 years. Owing to conflicts in Afghanistan, studies on this basin are rare. The water bird's habitat suitability maps during the study period were created using the maximum entropy model and the multi-criteria evaluation method. The post-classification method was applied to show the land-use/land-cover change over 40 years. These results were compared to the area of suitable habitat for water birds. The findings of these analyses indicated that the irrigated farming was expanded in the upstream despite climate change and water limitation, while the water birds' habitat in the downstream was declined. These results revealed that the unsustainable pattern of farming and blocking water behind dams in the upstream exacerbated the negative effects of climate change on water birds' habitat in the downstream. The significance of this study is to demonstrate the role of human in exacerbating climate change impacts both locally and regionally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influenced by climate change and human activities, especially the completion and operation of cascade reservoirs in the middle and lower reaches of Jinsha River since 2012, new changes have taken place in the water and sediment characteristics of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in recent years. In this paper, a one-dimensional unsteady water and sediment mathematical model of the main and tributary rivers of the TGR is established, and the main calculation parameters of the model are calibrated with the measured water and sediment data from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2017. In view of the different combinations of inflow water and sediment that may occur in the TGR under the condition of new water and sediment, the long-term changes of sediment erosion and deposition and the balance of reservoir deposition in the TGR are studied using the model. The results show that: (1) Under the new conditions of water and sediment, the amount of sediment in the TGR accounts for only 14.8% and 35.8% of that in 1956–1990 and 2003–2012, respectively; (2) The variation process of water level, discharge and sediment concentration of each station along the route calculated by the model is basically consistent with the measured results, and the calculated values of total deposition amount and deposition distribution are also basically consistent with the measured results. The verification results of the model are in accordance with the measured values; (3) Under the water-sediment conditions during 1961–1970 and 1991–2000, the model predicted the estimates of 320 and 430 years for the TGR to reach a sedimentation balance, respectively. Under the new water-sediment conditions, it takes 560 years at most and 450 years at least to reach the sedimentation balance for the TGR, and the corresponding condition is the typical year with less water-less sediment and more water-more sediment, respectively. The research results of this paper can provide a new reference for the long-term safe operation and operation optimization of the TGR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's first carbon dioxide (CO2) measurement satellite mission, TanSat, was launched in December 2016. This paper introduces the first attempt to detect anthropogenic CO2 emission signatures using CO2 observations from TanSat and NO2 measurements from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite. We focus our analysis on two selected cases in Tangshan, China and Tokyo, Japan. We found that the TanSat XCO2 measurements have the capability to capture the anthropogenic variations in the plume and have spatial patterns similar to that of the TROPOMI NO2 observations. The linear fit between TanSat XCO2 and TROPOMI NO2 indicates the CO2-to-NO2 ratio of 0.8 × 10−16 ppm (molec cm−2)−1 in Tangshan and 2.3 × 10−16 ppm (molec cm−2)−1 in Tokyo. Our results align with the CO2-to-NOx emission ratios obtained from the EDGAR v6 emission inventory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to global climate change, droughts are likely to become more frequent and more severe in many regions such as in South Africa. In Limpopo, observed high climate variability and projected future climate change will likely increase future maize production risks. This paper evaluates drought patterns in Limpopo at two representative sites. We studied how drought patterns are projected to change under future climatic conditions as an important step in identifying adaptation measures (e.g., breeding maize ideotypes resilient to future conditions). Thirty-year time horizons were analyzed, considering three emission scenarios and five global climate models. We applied the WOFOST crop model to simulate maize crop growth and yield formation over South Africa's summer season. We considered three different crop emergence dates. Drought indices indicated that mainly in the scenario SSP5-8.5 (2051–2080), Univen and Syferkuil will experience worsened drought conditions (DC) in the future. Maize yield tends to decline and future changes in the emergence date seem to impact yield significantly. A possible alternative is to delay sowing date to November or December to reduce the potential yield losses. The grain filling period tends to decrease in the future, and a decrease in the duration of the growth cycle is very likely. Combinations of changed sowing time with more drought tolerant maize cultivars having a longer post-anthesis phase will likely reduce the potential negative impact of climate change on maize. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In January 1910, a chalk mine at Château-Landon in the Paris basin brutally collapsed, causing 7 fatalities. This dramatic event was related to the centennial flood of the Seine River and one of its tributaries, the Loing River, which invaded the lower parts of the mine and eventually weakened the entire structure. To understand the conditions that triggered the disaster and anticipate other catastrophic event of this kind elsewhere, the Royer mine, located in the same area, was chosen to host an underground scientific observatory. Its goal is to study water–rock interactions and in particular water circulation and unusual ground saturation conditions on the behaviour of chalk. The Royer chalk mine is shallow, above the water-table, easily accessible and globally stable. It has been equipped with a high resolution multiparameter monitoring network in 2019; all the sensors are connected to The French National Monitoring Centre for Ground and Underground risks (Cenaris). Besides from in situ observations and monitoring, series of laboratory tests are carried out on samples to study the impact of hydraulic cycles on the short- and long-term behaviours of chalk. A hydromechanical model is also under development to analyse the results and better assess the overall stability of the mine in the context of climate of change. In this paper, we provide a brief summary on the challenges to assess geohazards from abandoned chalk mines, and then present in detail the observatory, its objectives and perspectives, as well as the first results after two years of activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the most frequent topics in climatic literature over the last three decades. One of the significant concerns with a potential change in climate is that extreme events will occur with a higher frequency. This paper focuses on spatial distribution and changes that occurred in extreme precipitation indices in Romania over a 53-yr period: 1961–2013. Gridded daily precipitation data have been used at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° (about 11 km × 11 km). A set of 14 indices established by the Expert Team for Sector-Specific Indices for agriculture and water resources sectors has been calculated. They are both frequency and intensity indices: four are fixed threshold indices (R10, R20, CDD, and CWD), four are station-related thresholds (R95p, R99p, R95pTOT, R99pTOT), and six indices were detected without using a threshold (Rx1day, Rx3days, PRECPTOT, SDII, SPI, SPEI). The study's main finding is that most of the indices registered increasing trends but not statistically significant at the country level. The only exceptions are the drought-related indices (CDD, SPI, and SPEI), for which we found a dominant decreasing trend. In the northern half of the country, increasing trends were prevailing, and in the southern one, those decreasing registered a broader spatial coverage. SPI and SPEI recorded mainly significant changes: SPI trends are almost equally divided between increasing and decreasing. For SPEI, more than 70% of the country was characterized by a significant decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Climate change is among the most renowned concerns of the current century, endangering the lives of millions of people worldwide. To comply with the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21), hospitals should be on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Although hospitals contribute to climate change by emitting greenhouse gases, they are also affected by the health consequences of climate change. Despite all the guidance provided, hospitals need more radical measures to confront climate change. The current study was carried out to examine the components of hospitals' adaptation to climate change and to review measures to confront climate change in hospitals. Method: This systematic review was designed and carried out in 2020. The required information was collected from international electronic databases including Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Google Scholar. Moreover, Iranian datasets such as Scientific Database (SID), Irandoc, Magiran, and IranMedex were reviewed. No restriction was considered in the methodology of the study. For the relevant thesis, the ProQuest database was also explored. The related sources were examined and the Snowball method was applied to find additional related studies. The research team also reviewed other accessible electronic resources, such as international guidelines and academic websites. The checklist of the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI, 2017) was employed in order to evaluate the quality of the included papers. The studies published until June1, 2020, were included in the study. Results: Of 11,680 published documents in the initial search, the full-texts of 140 were read after evaluating the titles and abstracts, of which 114 were excluded due to lack of sufficient information related to countermeasures in hospitals. Finally, the full-texts of 26 studies were reviewed to extract the required components. Two strategies were found, including climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation, with 13 components including water, wastewater, energy, waste, green buildings, food, transportation, green purchasing policy, medicines, chemicals and toxins, technology, sustainable care models, and leadership in hospitals were identified as affecting these measures and strategies. Conclusion: Considering the significance of climate change and strategies to confront it as one of the current challenges and priorities in the world, it is necessary to develop a framework and model to reduce the effects of climate change and adapt to climate changes in hospitals and other health centers. The identification and classification of the measures and components, influencing hospital adaptability and solutions for reducing the climate change impacts could be the first stage in developing this strategy. This is because it is impossible to create this framework without identifying these factors and their mutual impacts at the first. In the present study, through a systematic review using a comprehensive approach, the related components were explored and divided into two categories, including measures to reduce the effects and measures to adapt to climate change. The results of this study can be useful in developing a comprehensive action model to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt hospitals to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental problems continue to intensify. Yet, despite scientific consensus on threats such as climate change, broadscale public engagement with the issue is elusive. In this paper, we focus on childhood formative experiences and the extent to which they are correlated with environmental engagement. We consider two forms of environmental engagement: civic engagement, measured in hours per month devoted to an environmental protection cause, and private-sphere green behavior. Past studies about significant life experiences have shown that formative experiences, especially in childhood, correlate with environmentally sensitive attitudes and vocations in later life. However, we know less about the formative life events experienced by contemporary environmentally engaged persons. Looking at a nationally representative sample of American adults (n = 449), we find that childhood trauma predicts both civic engagement and green behavior. We also find that childhood experiences in nature and childhood travel experiences predict green behavior but not civic engagement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleontological studies of the distant past and historical chronicles of the last millennia indicate that warming and cooling of the climate on our planet, replacing each other, have taken place in a continuous series. An important role in this process has been and is played by cosmic factors: variations in solar activity and parameters of the Earth's orbital motion in the gravitational field of the Sun and the planets of the Solar System. It is suggested that the currently observed climate change is associated with a decrease in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit and the inclination of the axis of its rotation relative to the plane of the ecliptic, which has been going on for almost 30 thousand years. Both processes lead to changes in the boundaries of climatic zones. In the foreseeable future, these processes will proceed in the same direction. Therefore, the current trend towards climate change will continue. Despite the importance of addressing the problem of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions as soon as possible, this paper expresses doubts about the possibility of fending off climate warming in this way. It is proposed to focus on the development of mathematical climate models taking into account space factors and on finding the best ways to adapt industry, transport systems, and the environment to the conditions of expected climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will have an impact on not only flood magnitude but also on flood timing. This paper studies the shifting in flood timing at 6167 gauging stations from 1970 to 2010, globally. The shift in flood timing and its relationship with three influential factors (maximum 7-day precipitation, soil moisture excess, and snowmelt) are investigated. There is a clear global pattern in the mean flooding date: winter (Dec–Feb) across the western Coastal America, western Europe and the Mediterranean region, summer (Jun–Aug) in the north America, the Alps, Indian Peninsula, central Asia, Japan, and austral summer (Dec–Feb) in south Africa and north Australia area. The shift in flood timing has a trend from − 22 days per decade (earlier) to 28 days per decade (delayed). Earlier floods were found extensively in the north America, Europe and northeast Australia while delayed floods were prevailing in the Amazon, Cerrado, south Africa, India and Japan. Earlier flood timing in the north America and Europe was caused by earlier snowmelt while delayed extreme soil moisture excess and precipitation have jointly led to delayed floods around the monsoon zone, including south Africa, India and Japan. This study provides an insight on the shifting mechanism of flood timing, and supports decisions on the global flood mitigation and the impact from future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change may cause adverse impact on agricultural production that could jeopardize food availability and security. In this paper, we investigate how changes in mean values and variability of weather variables may affect rice yield using panel data for 30 districts of Tamil Nadu State from 1971 to 2018. We estimate a fixed-effects regression model with panel-corrected standard errors. Results show that rainfall and temperature have a statistically significant impact on rice yield. Furthermore, weather variability, measured as standard deviations of temperature and rainfall, has a negative effect on rice yields. We use the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-5 outputs and dynamically downscaled the weather outputs using the regional climate model. The results of the climate model showed that the rise in temperature and disruptions in rainfall patterns including both excessive and deficient rainfall events in Tamil Nadu will continue in the future under different climate scenarios. Projected changes in the weather variables are likely to decrease rice yield in Tamil Nadu from 0.7 to 6.3% under the low emission scenario and 4.1 to 20.1% in the high emission scenario during 2022–2050 (relative to 1971–2018). These projections have implications for the planning and targeting of climate adaptation technologies such as drought-tolerant and flood-tolerant varieties to lessen the adverse impact of weather variability due to climate change in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC predicts that hot seasons will get even hotter due to global climate change. There exists a critical dependence of human metabolic processes on temperature. Changes in thermal balance therefore, have an adverse effect on health because they raise body temperature, cause excessive sweating, and accelerate the rate of dehydration. Different nations and professional groups use different techniques to measure heat strain. This paper aims to review previous research conducted in the area of heat strain due to heat exposure among workers in Southeast Asia and also to profile mitigation strategies in North East India. Studies conducted between the years 2011 to 2023 in the evaluation of the health impacts of occupational heat stress were searched systematically using several sources of databases like PubMed, Google Scholar, Science Direct, Web of Science, Scopus, etc. It was noted that a greater proportion of previous research on evaluating physiological effects was carried out in controlled environments as opposed to real-world field settings. While such studies give us valuable insights into the relationship, applying the same methodology in the workplace may not be feasible. In India, very few research has been carried out on workplace heat stress, and even fewer have been done in North East India using physiological indicators. North East India is also affected by global climate change leading top more hotter days than before. The region of Northeast India, particularly Guwahati (Assam), has recently seen extreme heat waves during the sweltering summer months. With less literature available in this geographical location, studies with actual field-based settings are much needed to understand the occupational health impacts in this region. This review can formulate a suitable methodology for assessing the health impacts in working environment. This can also help the local health professionals to recognize the heat strain parameters that are acceptable worldwide, and use as pertinent indicators to scrutinize worker’s health and develop preventive agendas as climate change advances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the evolution of an oligopoly market where two types of companies, brown and green, are present. Green firms adopt a less polluting technology that allows a reduction in emissions. We want to investigate the possibility of an environmental-friendly transition where insurance can give its support to cover the (endogenous) climate change loss. The model is composed of two parts. We analyze a two-stages game in which the companies maximize their profits by choosing output in the first stage and insurance coverage in the second one. Then we develop an evolutionary game to endogenize the selection of being brown or green, according to the expected random profits. We derive analytically the dynamic regimes may arise and we perform a sensitivity analysis at the stable inner steady state, where firms coexist, changing the main key parameters to understand which ones may be strategic for an ecological transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling and simulating photovoltaic (PV) cells or modules involve using mathematical and computational models to predict their behavior and performance under various conditions. This can include modeling the electrical characteristics of solar cells, as well as the interactions between multiple cells in a PV module. In ISIS-Proteus software, the existing research works have modeled the PV modules either by using a Proteus Spice model of the PV panel without including the effect of climatic conditions variation or by using pure mathematical relations that describe all physical and environmental parameters that lead to a static behavior. Therefore, this paper proposes a new improved ISIS-Proteus model of a PV cell/module for dynamic performance emulation under varying climatic conditions. The proposed model is designed based on the equivalent circuit of a five-parameter single-diode as an electrical part controlled by a numerical part that includes the mathematical expressions corresponding to each parameter. The designed model can capture the impact of solar irradiance and temperature on PV outputs, thereby enhancing real-world PV performance prediction. Also, it can effectively simulate the effect of the partial shading. To validate the accuracy of the proposed model, a comparative study is conducted evaluating the model's performance against PVsyst software models and real-world data brought from a large-scale grid-connected PV station in Ain El-Melh, Algeria. In this study, the simulation tests are carried out using ISIS-Proteus considering several PV module types and under various operating conditions, including uniform test conditions (UTCs) and partial shading conditions (PSCs). The findings, including I–V and P–V curves and several standard metrics, prove the proposed model's effectiveness in accurately predicting the behavior of PV modules under both UTCs and PSCs, aligning closely with real-world performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hybrid 2D/one-line shoreline models, which typically apply a finite volume approach to simulate sediment transport and the one-line theory to update the shoreline morphology, are being increasingly applied over meso timescales (101 to 102 years) to inform coastal management. The one-line theory assumption of a constant closure depth prevents these models from considering the effects of sea-level rise in the shoreline morphology update. Sea-level rise, an endogenous driving factor of meso timescale coastal behaviour, influences the closure depth through its effects on the wave climate. This paper presents a new hybrid 2D/one-line approach that enables a time-varying closure depth in response to annual variations in wave climate as a solution for mirroring the effects of sea-level rise on the coastal profile and associated shoreline evolution. This new hybrid approach is applied to hindcast meso timescale shoreline evolution in a sandy coastal system and compared against the traditional hybrid 2D/one-line approach. Results show that the traditional hybrid approach gives the most accurate predictions whereas the new hybrid approach overpredicts shoreline erosion. However, this overprediction is attributed to net closure depth overestimation. This attribution gives confidence that the shoreline response to the time-varying closure depth specified is within expectations since closure depth overestimation increases offshore sediment transport in shoreline models. Therefore, it is likely that enabling a time-varying closure depth in hybrid 2D/one-line models may improve meso timescale shoreline predictions under sea-level rise if closure depths can be accurately prescribed over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increase in energy demand and consumption is one of the significant challenges of the world community. Global climate change and temperature rise can significantly affect energy demand, especially in the building sector. Green passive design strategies (GPDS) such as green roof and green wall are considered a passive energy-saving technology which can deal with further climate change in near future. This paper compares the energy demand and CO2 emissions of a building with different structural scenarios during the current (2000–2019) and future climatic conditions (the 2050s) in two hot-dry (Kerman) and hot-humid (BandarAbbas) climate samples in Iran. The base case, green roof, and green wall modeling of the selected building have been developed by DesignBuilder software. Results revealed that 61% of the annual energy consumption of Kerman is related to the heating sector, while it will be changed to 47% under the effect of climate change and based on RCP2.6. However, 99% of the annual energy consumption of BandarAbbas belongs to cooling demand and it will not change by 2050s. Also, the maximum heating and cooling energy demand were calculated for the base building. Based on the results, green wall has more efficiency in optimizing total energy consumption compared to green roof in both climate types. On the other hand, GPDS are more efficient to optimize heating energy demand in comparison with cooling energy demand. Furthermore, the green wall strategy has better performance in reducing CO2 emissions as well. Accordingly, CO2 emissions reduce in Kerman by 2.73% and 2.93% by the implementation of the green wall during the observation period and 2050s, respectively. Meanwhile, this strategy can reduce CO2 emissions by only 1% per year in BandarAbbas during all studied periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Glasgow a year later than scheduled, with expected outcomes achieved under a post-pandemic background. Based on the Issue-Actor-Mechanism Framework, this paper systematically evaluates the outcomes achieved at COP26 and analyzes the tendency of post-COP26 climate negotiations. Overall, with the concerted efforts of all parties, COP26 has achieved a balanced and inclusive package of outcomes and concluded six years of negotiations on the Paris Rulebook. It is fair to say that COP26 is another milestone in climate governance following the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, the Glasgow Climate Pact has cemented the consensus on a global commitment to accelerating climate action over the next decade and reached a breakthrough consensus on reducing coal, controlling methane, and halting deforestation. In the post-COP26 era, we still need to take concrete actions to implement the outcomes of the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact, innovate ways to speed up CO2 emissions reduction, and continue to strive for breakthroughs in important issues such as finance, technology, adaptation, and collaboration. In addition to avoiding the escalation of international conflicts, we need to collectively and properly handle the relationship between energy security, carbon reduction, and development and facilitate the efforts of countries to achieve their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including climate-related goals. China will continue to maintain the existing multilateral mechanisms and processes for climate governance, unremittingly take concrete actions to address climate change, promote a domestic comprehensive green transition and global cooperation on carbon neutrality, and contribute constructively to global climate governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses time series of thermal growing season (GS) start (GSS) and end dates (GSE) and length (GSL) in three cities representing urbanised areas of Central Europe (Kraków, Prague, Vienna) in the period 1792–2020. The classification of dates of growing season start and end, as well as length of the designated growing seasons, was conducted from climate data. An attempt was made to identify the dominant patterns of GS course, considering its start date, length, and end date collectively. In the period 1972–2020 in Central Europe, the growing season was prolonged, although the changes in particular stations selected for analysis occurred unevenly and simultaneously resulted from different causes. Three subperiods can be designated, differing in the intensity of changes in the start and end dates, as well as growing season length. The intensification of the rate of the occurring changes was recorded in all stations at the end of the twentieth and in the twenty-first century. There is a trend of decreasing frequency of short and abnormally short periods and more and more frequent occurrence of long and abnormally long seasons in the analysed multiannual period. Regardless of the differences between the stations in the designated GS types, the shortest of them were observed simultaneously at all three analysed stations in the period 1830–1860 and at the beginning of the twentieth century. The opposite type, representing the longest GS, is most abundant since the 1990s in Central Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional approach to characterize extreme rainfall events is based on using past observed data to fit a probability distribution, which is used to associate a certain probability of occurrence to a rainfall magnitude, under a stationary assumption. Observed series, however, may exhibit trends and abrupt changes, resulting from the natural hydro climatic variability and the climate change context, which are not usually considered in the stationary modelling procedure and which may affect the characterization of extreme events. In this paper, it was evaluated the presence of these temporal changes in rainfall series and their impact to estimate design quantiles, using rainfall data of 317 stations, located in São Paulo State, Brazil. The results showed that extreme rainfall events are changing in the state. Low-return period events (up to 10 years) are intensifying. Moderate- and high-return period events, on the other hand, did not present a clear spatial pattern. Trends and abrupt changes may significantly influence the estimation of design quantiles. The presence of the former in rainfall series exhibited more influence on low-return period events, showing, however, no clear relationship with high-return period design quantiles. The presence of the latter seems to influence the characterization process, affecting estimated quantiles of all evaluated return periods. Such findings highlight the need to consider the presence of trends and abrupt changes and their influence on design quantiles for a more reliable characterization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many regions around the world are facing climate changes, with substantial increase in air temperature over the past decades, which is mainly related to continental and global warming forced by the higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study were to use the Köppen climate classification to detect local climate change based on a historical series of 100 years and to assess if such change is related to those that are occurring in other spatial scales as a likely consequence of increasing GHG. This paper brings a content full of innovative results. The study area presented an average annual air temperature increase by 0.9 °C between 1917 and 2016, rising from 21.4 °C for the first climatological normal (1917–1946) to 22.3 °C for the last one (1987–2016). Furthermore, in the summer months, the temperature rose from 24.5 to 25.3 °C, and in the winter months, such increase was from 17.1 (1917–1946) to 18.3 °C (1987–2016). Our findings showed the subtropical conditions (Cfa in Köppen's classification) in the study area persisted from the beginning of the analysis (1917–1946) until the climatological normal of 1979–2008, with a clear tendency of tropicalization after that with a change in the climate type of Piracicaba from subtropical to tropical, which can now be classified as tropical with dry winter (Aw climate type). The local average air temperature showed concordances with the long-term air temperature anomalies from regional, continental, and global scales, indicating that all of them may be linked with increasing GHG emissions, since well-defined long-term linear relationships (r2 = 0.99) were observed between continental and global average air temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 concentration observed at the NOAA Lab in Mauna Loa in the last 59 years. While the local and regional forcing effects remain to be fully unraveled, our study provided a valid and strong scientific sound evidence that climate change occurred in Piracicaba, southeastern Brazil, in the last 100 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to compute climatological zones apt for the cultivation of pitaya based on trends in the occurrence of climate change events from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change) in Brazil. We used temperature and precipitation data from 4942 cities collected on the NASA/POWER platform (National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) from 1990 to 2020 to elaborate on the current scenario. The climate change scenarios were obtained using the CHELSA platform (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) and corresponded to the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 associated with four IPCC climate change scenarios. The spatialization of the data occurred according to the bioclimatic classes designed to meet the thermal and water needs of the crop. In the current scenario, class B5 has a predominance of 37.07% of the country, characterizing the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast regions, as well as the state of Paraná, as suitable for the cultivation of pitaya. Projections of temperature increase and reduction of accumulated rainfall were found throughout Brazil, but with greater impact in the North and Northeast regions, which had the greatest reduction of areas suitable for the cultivation of pitaya with a greater predominance of classes B8 and B9. In the South and Southeast regions, class B5 makes up a large part of the areas that remained suitable for the production of this fruit until 2080. The results suggest that climate change does not benefit the cultivation of pitaya in some regions of Brazil because the dimensions of the areas suitable for economic production are restricted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the first issue of the International Journal of Biometeorology in 1957, a total of 135 papers have reported on research in or of African countries. The majority of these have been on topics of animal biometeorology (36%), and the greatest proportion (24%) are situated in Nigeria. There has been a considerable increase in papers on African biometeorology since 2011, with those from this past decade accounting for 58% of all African papers in the journal. This occurs concurrent to an increase in the total number of papers published in the journal, driven by a move to the Editorial Manager system. While 66% of the papers on African biometeorology in the journal are authored by at least one person with an affiliation in the African continent, only 15 African countries are represented in the total authorship. As much of the African continent is projected to experience climatic changes exceeding the global mean, as much of the region is involved in animal and plant farming, and as seasonally-fluctuating and climatically affected diseases are common place, this low representation of work in Africa is surprising. This points to the need for greater awareness among African researchers of the discipline of biometeorology, greater involvement of African biometeorologists in International Society of Biometeorology and Commission meetings, and the inclusion of a greater number of African academics in the review process. This would be beneficial to the Society in increasing diversity and encouraging a more cosmopolitan engagement, and to the recognition of scientific development in African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eucalyptus plantations around the world have been largely used by the paper industry. Optimizing the management of resources is a common practice in this highly competitive industry and new forest growth models may help to understand the impact of climate change on the decisions of the optimization processes. Current optimized management plans use empirical equations to predict future forest stands growth, and it is currently impractical to replace these empirical equations with physiological models due to data input requirements. In this paper, we present a different approach, by first carrying out a preliminary assessment with the process-based physiological model 3PG to evaluate the growth of Eucalyptus stands under climate change predictions. The information supplied by 3PG was then injected as a modifier in the projected yield that feeds the management plan optimizer allowing the interpretation of climate change impacts on the management plan. Modelling results show that although a general increase of rain with climate change is predicted, the distribution throughout the year will not favor the tree growth. On the contrary, rain will increase when it is less needed (summer) and decrease when it is most needed (winter), decreasing forest stand productivity between 3 and 5%, depending on the region and soil. Evaluation of the current optimized plan that kept constant the relation between wood price/cellulose ton shows a variation in different strategic management options and an overall increase of costs in owned areas between 2 and 4%, and a decrease of cumulated net present value, initially at 15% with later stabilization at 6–8%. This is a basic comparison to observe climate change effects; nevertheless, it provides insights into how the entire decision-making process may change due to a reduction in biomass production under future climate scenarios. This work demonstrates the use of physiological models to extract information that could be merged with existing and already implemented empirical models. The methodology may also be considered a preliminary alternative to the complete replacement of empirical models by physiological models. Our approach allows some insight into forest responses to different future climate conditions, something which empirical models are not designed for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land cover change (LCC) significantly changed the local/regional temperature. This paper attempts to reveal the effects of cropland expansion in different ways on temperature change from the 1900s to 2010s in Heilongjiang Province. To reach this goal, we conducted four simulation research schemes with the coupled Weather Research and Forecast (WRF)-Noah model to investigate the warming/cooling effect of cropland expansion. The results show that cropland expansion exerted different effects with different land-use type conversions. In the last century, the areas with grassland-to-cropland and wetland-to-cropland transition show the warming effect, and the average surface temperature in Heilongjiang Province increased by 0.023 ℃ and 0.024 ℃, respectively. The areas with forest-to-cropland transition show the cooling effect, in which the average temperature decreased by 0.103 ℃. The variation of air temperature is mainly caused by the variation of surface reflectance and surface net radiation flux. The results provide evidence that cropland expansion changes to biophysical landscape characteristics, warming/cooling the land surface and thus enhancing/reducing the temperature, and lead to regional climate change eventually. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature-based solutions (NBS) were introduced as integrated, multifunctional and multi-beneficial solutions to a wide array of socio-ecological challenges. Although principles for a common understanding and implementation of NBS were already developed on a landscape scale, specific principles are needed with regard to an application in urban areas. Urban areas come with particular challenges including (i) spatial conflicts with urban system nestedness, (ii) specific urban biodiversity, fragmentation and altered environments, (iii) value plurality, multi-actor interdependencies and environmental injustices, (iv) path-dependencies with cultural and planning legacies and (v) a potential misconception of cities as being artificial landscapes disconnected from nature. Given these challenges, in this perspective paper, we build upon and integrate knowledge from the most recent academic work on NBS in urban areas and introduce five distinct, integrated principles for urban NBS design, planning and implementation. Our five principles should help to transcend governance gaps and advance the scientific discourse of urban NBS towards a more effective and sustainable urban development. To contribute to resilient urban futures, the design, planning, policy and governance of NBS should (1) consider the need for a systemic understanding, (2) contribute to benefiting people and biodiversity, (3) contribute to inclusive solutions for the long-term, (4) consider context conditions and (5) foster communication and learning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The crises that cities face—such as climate change, pandemics, economic downturn, and racism—are tightly interlinked and cannot be addressed in isolation. This paper addresses compound urban crises as a unique type of problem, in which discrete solutions that tackle each crisis independently are insufficient. Few scholarly debates address compound urban crises and there is, to date, a lack of interdisciplinary insights to inform urban governance responses. Combining ideas from complex adaptive systems and critical urban studies, we develop a set of boundary concepts (unsettlement, unevenness, and unbounding) to understand the complexities of compound urban crises from an interdisciplinary perspective. We employ these concepts to set a research agenda on compound urban crises, highlighting multiple interconnections between urban politics and global dynamics. We conclude by suggesting how these entry points provide a theoretical anchor to develop practical insights to inform and reform urban governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under-five years old acute watery diarrhea (U5AWD) accounts for most diarrheal diseases' burden, but little is known about the adjusted effect of meteorological and socioeconomic determinants. A dataset containing the seasonal numbers of U5AWD cases at the district level of Iran is collected through MOHME. Accordingly, the district-level standardized incidence ratio and Moran's I values are calculated to detect the significant clusters of U5AWD over sixteen seasons from 2014 to 2018. Additionally, the author tested twelve Bayesian hierarchical models in order to determine which one was the most accurate at forecasting seasonal number of incidents. Iran features a number of U5AWD hotspots, particularly in the southeast. An extended spatiotemporal model with seasonally varying coefficients and space–time interaction outperformed other models, and so became the paper's proposal in modeling U5AWD. Temperature demonstrated a global positive connection with seasonal U5AWD in districts (IRR: 1.0497; 95% CrI: 1.0254–1.0748), owing to its varying effects during the winter ((IRR: 1.0877; 95% CrI: 1.0408–1.1375) and fall (IRR: 1.0866; 95% CrI: 1.0405–1.1357) seasons. Also, elevation (IRR: 0.9997; 95% CrI: 0.9996–0.9998), piped drinking water (IRR: 0.9948; 95% CrI: 0.9933–0.9964), public sewerage network (IRR: 0.9965; 95% CrI: 0.9938–0.9992), years of schooling (IRR: 0.9649; 95% CrI: 0.944–0.9862), infrastructure-to-household size ratio (IRR: 0.9903; 95% CrI: 0.986–0.9946), wealth index (IRR: 0.9502; 95% CrI: 0.9231–0.9781), and urbanization (IRR: 0.9919; 95% CrI: 0.9893–0.9944) of districts were negatively associated with seasonal U5AWD incidence. Strategically, developing geoinformation alarm systems based on meteorological data might help predict U5AWD high-risk areas. The study also anticipates increased rates of U5AWD in districts with poor sanitation and socioeconomic level. Therefore, governments should take appropriate preventative actions in these sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With global climate change and the rapid urbanization, urban flood and drought disasters are frequent and urban water supply systems are facing a sea of serious challenges. It is crucial to assess the resilience of urban water supply systems and develop corresponding disaster mitigation and improvement strategies. Urban water supply systems include many subsystems, but existing researches generally focus on a single subsystem. Therefore, this paper proposes a correlation analysis method and a factor analysis method for the resilience evaluation index system of urban water supply systems by combining each subsystem and applying grey system theory. The method can reflect the four dimensions of the water supply process (water source, water plant, supply and distribution network and users) and the five dimensions of the urban management system (society, natural environment, economy, physics and organization). Taking Qingdao as an example, a multi-level integrated evaluation model based on a cloud model is applied to simulate and analyze the resilience of Qingdao's water supply system. As a result, decision support is provided for planning and building resilience systems for urban water systems in the short and long term, based on four main factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governments around the world are seeking an effective mechanism to cope with air pollution and climate change. The allocation of emission allowances, which is a key mechanism in the cap-and-trade system, is an important and intricate puzzle faced by environmental agencies. In this paper, we build a Stackelberg model to explore the emission allowance allocation mechanism design from an operations perspective. We demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of a linear emission allowance allocation mechanism. The results show that the emission allowance allocated by the government should always be insufficient to satisfy the ex-post emission demand at the industry level, even with low-carbon investment. To analyze the impacts on firms' decision-makings, we explore a scenario in which two firms in the same industry sell a homogenous product to the market. The optimal low-carbon investment and production decisions are significantly affected by these market and carbon-related factors. Numerical examples are presented to further demonstrate the results that our paper has derived and investigate the optimal operational decisions of the two firms. Several meaningful management insights on allocation mechanism design and low-carbon operations of firms are obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding paintings as physical systems is fundamental for advancing environmental specifications that would allow for effective management of museum environments in terms of reducing energy use and carbon emissions while maintaining high standards of collection care. The current environmental specifications were derived using the criterion of the crack initiation in undamaged, usually new, material. In reality, historical paintings exhibit complex crack patterns called craquelures. The present paper analyses painted wood which is among the category of cultural objects most vulnerable to relative humidity and temperature fluctuations and frequently found in museum collections of various kinds. Fracture toughness determined experimentally for the most brittle component of pictorial layer—the ground layer (gesso) is used as a 'failure criterion'. Comparison of energy release rate—calculated for the model of the gesso laid on a wooden substrate using finite element analysis—with the structure toughness, allowed the fracture saturation expressed as the ratio of spacing between cracks S to gesso layer thickness t to be determined for various combinations of the gesso stiffness and geometries of structural flaws at which cracks initiate. For flat geometry of a panel painting and panel thickness of 40 mm, representing the worst-case, largest stresses in the gesso layer, the fracture saturation occurs when S/t is larger than 5, even if flaws in the gesso layer are present. The paper shows that the fracture saturation significantly changes vulnerability of paintings to climate variations—a panel painting with developed craquelure network is significantly less vulnerable to climate variations than an undamaged one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The crises of climate change and biodiversity loss have pushed the aim for increasing the resilience of forest ecosystems high on the agenda of foresters and policymakers. At the same time, synergistic opportunities for restoring forests and biodiversity are emerging to safeguard these ecosystems. Naturalness is a key characteristic of forest ecosystems, which should be considered when estimating benchmarks for resilience and biodiversity conservation. The naturalness of forest ecosystems is highly dependent on the intensity of human activity, as different levels of management intensity can change the original traits of forest ecosystems. This paper presents an archetypal typology of forest ecosystems, describing the association between management and naturalness. Both features are represented as gradients covering the full spectrum observed in European forests. The array of forest ecosystem archetypes was verified using case studies across Europe. The typology provides useful information for setting targets for resilience and restoration of forest ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropic structures have been deployed in aquatic environments for the most variable purposes. Here, we review the use of artificial aquatic habitats (AAHs) worldwide through a systematic and comprehensive search of peer-reviewed literature. We aimed to synthesize the knowledge on the subject, identify gaps, and propose new perspectives for future research. In total, 460 peer-reviewed papers from 1972 to mid-2016 were included in our systematic review. Field studies carried out in marine temperate environments were predominant, whereas fewer efforts have been made in marine tropical and freshwater ecosystems. Experimental habitats made of concrete were the most common artificial structures. Visual census was the most used sampling method, and there was a dominance of short-term (< 12 months) and shallow waters (< 5 m depth) studies. Fish was the most studied group (18%), whereas tunicates encompassed the large proportion of non-native species associated with AAHs (32.9%). Although idealized for the promotion of biodiversity, AAHs have been serving as stepping stones for non-native invasive species, facilitating biotic homogenization by increasing the connectivity of hard-bottom systems. The scarcity of studies in coastal tropical and freshwater ecosystems, as well as the efforts with reduced temporal scales and restricted depths, calls for future research to better understand the role of artificial habitats, especially in climate change scenarios. In this sense, we provide a conceptual framework exploring major issues regarding AAHs, including biodiversity status, ecosystem services, and climate change, in order to guide future research and assist conservation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview of the HEAT (Healthy Environments for AthleTes) project, which aims to understand the impact of environmental conditions on athlete health and performance during major sporting events such as long-distance running, cycling, and triathlons. In collaboration with the SAFER (Strategies to reduce Adverse medical events For the ExerciseR) initiative, the HEAT project carried out a field campaign at the 2022 Comrades Marathon in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. The measurement campaign deployed seven weather stations, seven PM2.5 monitors and one spore trap along the 90 km route to capture spatially representative measurements of complex micro-climates, allergenic aerospora, and particulate matter exposure. The results indicate that runners were exposed to moderate risk heat stress conditions. Novel findings from this initial campaign shows elevated and potentially harmful PM2.5 levels at spectator areas, possibly coinciding with small fire events around the race day festivities. Our findings show values PM2.5 levels over the WHO 24-h guidelines at all stations, while 2000 µg/m3 at two stations. However, the lack of an acute exposure standard means direct health impacts cannot be quantified in the context of a sport event. The HEAT project highlights important aspects of race day monitoring; regional scale climatology has an impact on the race day conditions, the microclimatic conditions (pollution and meteorology) are not necessarily captured by proximity instruments and direct environmental measurements are required to accurately capture conditions along the route. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transport facilities are increasingly threatened by the climate-change related natural disasters in recent years. In order to incentivize the transport facility operators to engage in climate change adaptation, governments may provide subsidies to the adaptation investment. Due to the substantial uncertainties in the outcomes of the adaptation projects, the government can set up an “experiment” project, which can be used as a demonstrator. In this paper, we develop real-option game models to investigate the transport facility operators’ adaptation investment under static stochastic demand and time-varying stochastic demand. Meanwhile, the government’s optimal decisions on whether to set up a demonstrator and the related subsidy policies are also examined. We find that under static stochastic demand, the government prefers to set up a demonstrator if the marginal benefit of the adaptation capacity is larger than its marginal cost, or the demonstration effect is high enough. Under time-varying stochastic demand, the government prefers to set up a demonstrator when the demand volatility is low. Moreover, increasing demand volatility requires less (or more) subsidy, when the demonstrator is (or is not) set up. Increasing demand volatility leads to postponement of the adaptation timing and more adaptation investment, irrespective of whether there is a demonstrator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]