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Over the past 50 years, temperatures on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have risen roughly twice as fast as the global average, making it the most unpredictable region of environmental change due to global warming. In this paper, an Environmental Area Index model was developed using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to assess the ecological risk faced by QTP ecosystems under the influence of climate factors. The results show that ecological risk gradually decreases from northwest to the southeast, and there are different trends in ecological risk for each class in areas with different elevation gradients. As elevation increased, the proportion of potential risk areas gradually decreased, and the proportion of high- and higher-risk areas gradually increased. We predict that in the period 2021–2100, the overall ecological risk change trend on the QTP will not be obvious, but there will be a more obvious change on the vertical gradient. In general, under the existing global climate change scenario, the ecological risk faced by the QTP show a decreasing trend under the influence of climate factors, and the decrease in ecological risks is much higher at higher elevations than at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have examined the projected climate types in China by 2100. This study identified the emergence time of climate shifts at a 1◦ scale over China from 1990 to 2100 and investigated the temporal evolution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications computed from CMIP5 multi-model outputs. Climate shifts were detected in transition regions (7%-8% of China's land area) by 2010, including rapid replacement of mixed forest (Dwb) by deciduous forest (Dwa) over Northeast China, strong shrinkage of alpine climate type (ET) on the Tibetan Plateau, weak northward expansion of subtropical winterdry climate (Cwa) over Southeast China, and contraction of oceanic climate (Cwb) in Southwest China. Under all future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios, the reduction of Dwb in Northeast China and ET on the Tibetan Plateau was projected to accelerate substantially during 2010-30, and half of the total area occupied by ET in 1990 was projected to be redistributed by 2040. Under the most severe scenario (RCP8.5), sub-polar continental winter dry climate over Northeast China would disappear by 2040-50, ET on the Tibetan Plateau would disappear by 2070, and the climate types in 35.9% and 50.8% of China's land area would change by 2050 and 2100, respectively. The results presented in this paper indicate imperative impacts of anthropogenic climate change on China's ecoregions in future decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the most important geological events in Cenozoic era, the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has had profound influences on the Asian and global climate and environment evolution. During the past four decades, many scholars from China and abroad have studied climatic and environmental effects of the TP uplift by using a variety of geological records and paleoclimate numerical simulations. The existing research results enrich our understanding of the mechanisms of Asian monsoon changes and interior aridification, but so far there are still a lot of issues that need to be thought deeply and investigated further. This paper attempts to review the research on the influence of the TP uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment, summarize three types of numerical simulations including bulk-plateau uplift, phased uplift and sub-regional uplift, and especially to analyze regional differences in responses of climate and environment to different forms of tectonic uplifts. From previous modeling results, the land-sea distribution and the Himalayan uplift may have a large effect in the establishment and development of the South Asian monsoon. However, the formation and evolution of the monsoon in northern East Asia, the intensified dryness north of the TP and enhanced Asian dust cycle may be more closely related to the uplift of the main body, especially the northern part of the TP. In this review, we also discuss relative roles of the TP uplift and other impact factors, origins of the South Asian monsoon and East Asian monsoon, feedback effects and nonlinear responses of climatic and environmental changes to the plateau uplift. Finally, we make comparisons between numerical simulations and geological records, discuss their uncertainties, and highlight some problems worthy of further studying. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a 457-year reconstruction of precipitation in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau using tree-ring records. Tree-ring samples were collected from the Hengduan Mountains in the southeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. A nearly 500-year chronology was developed using tree-ring width records. Correlation analysis shows moisture is the main factor limiting tree growth in this region. Ring-widths were significantly positively correlated with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and precipitation in many months. The highest correlation coefficient was found between the annual growth of trees and precipitation from the previous September to the current June (0.738). Based on this relationship, we reconstructed the precipitation history from 1509 to 2006. The reconstruction explains 54.4% ( R=53.5%, N=49, F=56.12) of the actual precipitation variation during the calibration period (1958-2006). During the reliable period of the reconstruction (1549-2006), some low-frequency climate signals are included, indicating this region has been getting wetter in the last 20 years. The reconstruction documents six apparently dry and five pluvial periods and the 17th century dry period lasted longer than any other. When compared with other recent studies, this study and these earlier reconstructions show a similar trend in the variation of drought and pluvial. Further spatial correlation analysis confirms that the reconstructed precipitation adequately represents the rainfall history of the entire Hengduan Mountain area. The Multi-taper method, a type of spectral analysis, reveals that precipitation in this area had significant ( P<0.01) spectral peaks at 3-5 a, 60 a and 79-85 a. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant phenology is the most salient and sensitive indicator of terrestrial ecosystem response to climate change. Studying its change is significantly important in understanding and predicting impressively changes in terrestrial ecosystem. Based on NDVI from SPOT VGT, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in alpine grassland phenology in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1999 to 2009. The results are enumerated as follows: (1) The spatial distribution of the average alpine grassland phenology from 1999 to 2009 is closely related to water and heat conditions. Accompanying the deterioration in heat and water conditions from southeast to northwest, the start of growth season (SOG) was delayed gradually, the end of growth season (EOG) advanced slowly, and the length of growth season (LOG) shortened gradually. Elevation played an important role in the regional differentiation of phenology, but a dividing line of approximately 3500 m existed. Below this line, the phenology fluctuated irregularly with altitude change, whereas above the line, the phenology is closely related to altitude change. (2) From 1999 to 2009, SOG of the alpine grassland came earlier by six days per decade ( R=0.281, P=0.093), EOG was late by two days per decade ( R=0.031, P=0.605), and LOG lengthened by eight days per decade ( R=0.479, P=0.018). The early SOG, the late EOG, and the extended LOG mainly occurred at the center and east of the Plateau. SOG in most of the Plateau advanced significantly, especially in the eastern Plateau. (3) The inter-annual phenology changes of the alpine grassland in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau exhibited significant differentiation at different elevation and natural zones. The inter-annual changes at high altitude were more complicated than that at low altitude. The most significant phenology changes were found in the eastern Qinghai-Qilian montane steppe zone, and non-significant changes occurred in the Southern Tibet montane shrub-steppe zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the definition of vulnerability provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this paper assesses the vulnerability of areas affected by Chinese cryospheric changes from 2001 to 2020 and from 2001 to 2050 in A1 and B1scenarios. Seven indices are used in the vulnerability assessment: glacial area fraction, interannual variability of permafrost depth, interannual variability of surface snow area fraction, interannual variability of surface runoff, interannual variability of surface temperature, interannual variability of vegetation growth, and interannual variability of the human development index. Assessment results show that the overall vulnerability of the studied areas in China increases from east to west. The areas in the middle and eastern parts of China are less vulnerable compared with western parts and parts of the Tibetan Plateau. The highest vulnerability values are found from 1981 to 2000, and the least ones are found from 2001 to 2050. The vulnerable areas increase from the period of 1981 to 2000 to the period of 2001 to 2050, and the less vulnerable areas decrease. The highly vulnerable areas increase from the period of 1981 to 2000 to the period of 2001 to 2020 and then decrease from the period of 2001 to 2020 to the period of 2001 to 2050. This decrease in vulnerability is attributed to the decrease in exposure and sensitivity to Chinese cryospheric changes along with a concomitant increase in adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]