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Climate change represents one of the most pressing societal and scientific challenges of our time. While much of the current research on climate change focuses on future prediction, some of the strongest signals of warming can already be seen in Arctic and alpine areas, where temperatures are rising faster than the global average, and in the oceans, where the combination of rising temperatures and acidification due to increased CO2 concentrations has had catastrophic consequences for sensitive marine organisms inhabiting coral reefs. The scientific papers highlighted as part of this anniversary issue represent some of the most impactful advances in our understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we reflect on the legacy of these papers from the biotic perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Ethiopia, large-scale agricultural investment (LAI) is promoted to foster adaptation to climate change among smallholder farmers by improving farming conditions and productivity. However, little has been known about this condition so far. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to study the implications of LAI for the capacity for climate change adaptation among smallholder farmers, based on a study conducted in Merti district in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. An asset-based approach was used to measure the adaptive capacity of smallholders, via data collected from a household survey, undertaken among smallholder households who had, or had not, benefited, from LAI, and supported by key informant interviews and focus group discussions. Descriptive and inferential statistics and qualitative thematic analysis methods were used to analyze the data. The study found that the adaptive capacity of smallholder households was improved under the influence of LAI. LAI motivated and prompted farmers to use technologies that fostered climate change adaption, including the use of irrigation, improved crop varieties, chemical fertilizer, and engagement in alternative sources of income, which improved their food security status. But this technology and knowledge transfer mainly occurred through observation (learning by doing), not by capacity-building. However, both group of smallholders (within and without contact with the LAI) received similar benefits through government rural extension services. Therefore, the paper concludes that scaling up these technologies and alternative income sources could enhance the adaptive capacity of smallholders, but that LAIs should contribute actual technical and financial support as part of benefit-sharing or corporate responsibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AI chatbots such as ChatGPT help people produce texts. According to media reporting, these texts are also used for educational purposes. Thus, AI influences people's knowledge and perception of current issues. This paper examines the narrative of ChatGPT's stories on climate change. Our explorative analysis reveals that ChatGPT's stories on climate change show a relatively uniform structure and similar content. Generally, the narrative is in line with scientific knowledge on climate change; the stories convey no significant misinformation. However, specific topics in current debates on global warming are conspicuously missing. According to the ChatGPT narrative, humans as a species are responsible for climate change and specific economic activities or actors associated with carbon emissions play no role. Analogously, the social structuration of vulnerability to climate impacts and issues of climate justice are hardly addressed. ChatGPT's narrative consists of de-politicized stories that are highly optimistic about technological progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the robustness of the "natalist bias" of pollution control in de la Croix and Gosseries (J Environ Econ Manage 63:271–287, 2012), according to which taxing emissions encourage agents to shift from production to procreation, further deteriorating the environment and gradually impoverishing the next generations. We relax the assumptions that human capital does not depend on environmental quality and that society does not allocate resources to pollution control. Using a similar Overlapping Generations (OLG) growth model, our findings indicate that taxation does not necessarily encourage agents to permanently shift away from production because living under better environmental conditions enhances productivity through human capital formation. As the government increases the emissions price, agents reduce consumption and education spending, hurting output in the short term. However, in the long run, the reduction in emissions that follows taxation more than compensates for the initial adverse effects, provided that the sensitivity of human capital accumulation to environmental degradation is strong enough. Furthermore, as we increase the coefficient capturing such pollution externality, a Neimark–Sacker bifurcation occurs, making the system compatible with persistent endogenous fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainability in cotton production is inevitable because producing more cotton means more employment, economic acceleration, and industrial expansion. India, China, the United States, Brazil, and Pakistan contribute 74% of worldwide cotton production. Pakistan is contributing only 5%, despite the high potential of cotton. The average yield of cotton in Pakistan is stagnant at 570.99 kg hm−2, whereas it entails the highest cost of production among all other crops. The yield obtained in Pakistan is less than the potential, profitability is drastically lessening, and farmers are abandoning cotton for alternative kharif crops. Some traditional quantitative studies have unveiled different factors that affect cotton production. However, an in-depth qualitative study has never been conducted in Pakistan to explore the root causes of growing cotton crop failure. Following Moustakas's traditional phenomenological guidelines, this phenomenological study was conducted in the district of Rahim Yar Khan in the core cotton zone of Punjab province. A total of 10 interviews were conducted with purposively selected cotton growers based on a criterion: (i) having more than 10 years of cotton growing experience, (ii) being a cotton grower, and (iii) having at least 10 years of formal schooling. Interviews were conducted face to face on an interview guide. One interview lasted 45–50 min, and responses were recorded and analyzed using a thematic analysis approach. A total of 6 themes emerged from the collected data, including (i) climate change, (ii) varietal problems, (iii) pesticide usage, (iv) sense of institutional services, (v) attitude of farmers and (vi) soil health and environment. These six merging themes contributed to cotton crop failure and yield decline. The deep exploration further summarized that researchers, extensionists, and farmers need to seriously consider variety, sowing time, and the environment to revive cotton crops. The detailed recommendations and policy guidelines are presented in this paper, highlighting the cotton sector's research, development and investment areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely and accurate agricultural drought monitoring and drought-driven mechanism analysis in karst basins in the context of global warming are highly important for drought disaster monitoring and sustainable ecological development in a basin. In this study, based on MODIS data, meteorological and topographic data and land use data from 2001 to 2020, we used the Sen slope, the Mann–Kendall test and a geographic detector to explore the driving mechanisms of agricultural drought caused by climate change and human activities in the karst basin of southern China from 2001 to 2020. The results showed that (1) the spatial distribution of the TVDI in the karst basin in southern China has obvious regional characteristics, showing a decreasing trend from west to east. (2) According to the interannual trend of drought, the degree of drought in the South China karst basin exhibited a weakening trend over the last 20 years, with the most severe drought occurring in 2003. Regarding the seasonal change in the TVDI, drought in spring, summer and autumn exhibited a decreasing trend, while that in winter exhibited an increasing trend, and the drought intensity decreased in the following order: spring (0.58) > autumn (0.53) > summer (0.5) > winter (0.48). (3) Single-factor detection the results showed that rainfall, temperature and elevation were the main factors driving aridification in the study area; multifactor coupling (mean) drove drought in descending order: rainfall (q = 0.424) > temperature (q = 0.340) > elevation (q = 0.219) > land use (q = 0.188) > population density (q = 0.061) > slope (q = 0.057). Therefore, revealing the mechanism of agricultural drought in karst basins through the study of this paper has important theoretical significance and provides technical guidance for drought relief in karst areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of transition risk on a firm's low-carbon production. As the world is facing global climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has set the idealized carbon-neutral scenario around 2050. In the meantime, many carbon reduction scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been proposed in the literature for different production sectors in a more comprehensive socio-economic context. We consider, on the one hand, a firm that aims to optimize its emission level under the double objectives of maximizing its production profit and respecting the emission mitigation scenarios. Solving the penalized optimization problem provides the optimal emission according to a given SSP benchmark. On the other hand, such transitions affect the firm's credit risk. We model the default time by using the structural default approach. We are particularly concerned with how, by following different SSPs scenarios, the adopted strategies may influence the firm's default probability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of climate change increasingly show themselves in many forms in our everyday lives such as heatwaves and droughts. Drought is one of the critical events today for increasing drought frequency. This study focuses on meteorological drought because it directly affects other drought types. Hence, this study focuses on how the future drought conditions will vary under climate change effects in the Mediterranean basin (Turkey). In doing so, this study utilizes precipitation data from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three Regional Circulation Models (RCMs). The GCMs are CNRM-CM6, GFDL-CM4, and MPI-ESM1, while the RCMs are (RCA4)-CNRM-CM5, (Reg CM4)-GFDL-ESM2M, and (RCA4)-MPI-ESM-MR. Mitigating biases of the climate models, this study utilizes four statistical downscaling methods (SD), linear scaling (LS), local intensity scaling (LOCI), power transformation (PT), and distribution mapping (DM). Here, the study has two purposes. The main aim of the paper here is to compare the performance of SD methods in improving the representation of observed climate variables in climate models. In addition, the study shows how different methods will affect the spatial drought distribution in the area under the SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 scenarios. Consequently, the study uses the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Z-score index (ZSI) to quantify future drought conditions and reaches the following results. The study reveals that mild drought conditions are prevalent in the basin for future periods, and drought indices go down to − 0.55. The study also shows that different SD methods affect the results obtained by each climate model diversely. For example, while the LS method causes the most drought conditions on the results based on CNRM-CM5 and CNRM-CM6, the DM method has a similar impact on outcomes based on GFDL-CM4 and GFDL-ESM2M and causes the most drought conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a natural phenomenon that occurred in Central Europe in the past, but it is becoming a more serious problem due to the changes in its occurrence and intensity related to climate change. The main aim of this paper was to determine changes in air temperature and precipitation amounts in Slovakia from 1931 to 2020 and to identify changes in drought occurrence and intensity using the Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Cluster analysis was used to determine regions with similar drought occurrences. For each of the identified five clusters, drought characteristics were determined and compared between two reference periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. While a decrease in the number of months with SPEI-1 below − 1 was observed in autumn, spring and summer months showed a drying tendency. Overall, we can say that we observed a shift in drought occurrence from autumn and winter months to spring and summer months. This is an important finding for the agriculture or forestry because it affects work management and planning. The clearest tendency in drought events was observed in the western part of Slovakia covering areas with agriculturally intensive land use. Besides prolonging drought events, there was also a higher accumulated deficit for each event. The increase in drought intensity was not spatially consistent over the cluster area, mostly reaching a slight decline of about − 0.1 to − 0.3, which means slight intensification of drought periods in 1991–2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature-Based Solutions concepts and practices are being used worldwide as part of attempts to address societal challenges but have also been criticised for not dealing with deeper transformations needed to face urgent issues including biodiversity loss, climate change and inclusion. In this paper, we explore how an inclusive, integrated and long-sighted approach, emphasising a more radical integration of nature within cities, might support the transformations needed to endure major contemporary challenges. Addressing important emerging critiques of Nature-Based Solutions, we consider the potential of a more incisive form of Nature-Based Thinking (NBT) in cities, based on more holistic perspectives. The paper draws on a reflective and iterative research process that engaged both the research and practice communities through a symposium and a series of futures workshops that together explored the potential of NBT to develop future nature-cities relations in Europe and Latin America. The results of the reflective process suggest that notions of nature with people—not for people— new organisational structures, and the intention and capacity to apply long-term perspectives, are needed when planning for NBS interventions aimed at sustainable urban development. This includes developing a cultural-structural change based on new and inclusive understandings of human–nature relations, and novel governance paradigms that allow cross-sectoral coordination and engagement of local stakeholders beyond formal organisational structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric extreme events cause severe damage to human societies and ecosystems. The frequency and intensity of extremes and other associated events are continuously increasing due to climate change and global warming. The accurate prediction, characterization, and attribution of atmospheric extreme events is, therefore, a key research field in which many groups are currently working by applying different methodologies and computational tools. Machine learning and deep learning methods have arisen in the last years as powerful techniques to tackle many of the problems related to atmospheric extreme events. This paper reviews machine learning and deep learning approaches applied to the analysis, characterization, prediction, and attribution of the most important atmospheric extremes. A summary of the most used machine learning and deep learning techniques in this area, and a comprehensive critical review of literature related to ML in EEs, are provided. The critical literature review has been extended to extreme events related to rainfall and floods, heatwaves and extreme temperatures, droughts, severe weather events and fog, and low-visibility episodes. A case study focused on the analysis of extreme atmospheric temperature prediction with ML and DL techniques is also presented in the paper. Conclusions, perspectives, and outlooks on the field are finally drawn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many higher education institutions around the world are engaged in efforts to tackle climate change. This takes place by not only reducing their own carbon footprint but also by educating future leaders and contributing valuable research and expertise to the global effort to combat climate change. However, there is a need for studies that identify the nature of their engagement on the topic, and the extent to which they are contributing towards addressing the many problems associated with climate change. Against this background, this paper describes a study that consisted of a review of the literature and the use of case studies, which outline the importance of university engagement in climate change and describe its main features. The study identified the fact that even though climate change is a matter of great relevance to universities, its coverage in university programmes is not as wide as one could expect. Based on the findings, the paper also lists the challenges associated with the inclusion of climate change in university programmes. Finally, it describes some of the measures which may be deployed in order to maximise the contribution of higher education towards handling the challenges associated with a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The challenges posed by climate change, biodiversity loss, and land-use are deeply interconnected and integrated solutions are needed. This paper presents results from 11 contributions to a special issue covering topics of integrated modeling and spatial prioritization, mass-balance studies, Earth Observation techniques, research infrastructure developments, and evaluation of policy measures and economic compensation schemes. The spatial scale of the studies ranges from detailed site-specific to a European scale. This paper briefly summarizes the main findings of these studies, makes some general overall conclusions, and identifies topics for further research and methods developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are integral to efforts to keep global warming below 2°C in accordance with the United Nations' 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Yet the transboundary governance dimensions of NbS remain unclear and largely undocumented. In Southeast Asia, NbS have emphasised the conservation and/ or sustainable commodification of carbon sinks found in terrestrial and mangrove forests, seagrass meadows, peatlands and agricultural soils. Mostly project-driven and fixed-term, these "solutions" have often failed to meet their social and ecological objectives. Increasingly, they have added to cross-border problems of: (1) displaced carbon emissions; and (2) economic migration and societal dispossession. This perspective paper delineates a transboundary governance research agenda to mitigate these trade-offs and enhance the co-benefits of NbS in carbon sinks. Building on NbS literature, it identifies cross-sector, multi-scalar and interdisciplinary pathways to improve transboundary cooperation, inclusion and equity in carbon sink governance in varying Southeast Asian contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under global warming and climate change (CC), the vulnerable piece of land is India's Eastern-Himalayan-Region (EHR), where millions' livelihood activities are at risk. Quantifying the degree of CC-induced vulnerability over the highly climate-sensitive mountain zone is challenging due to data inadequacy. This paper attempted to assess the CC perception of kiwifruit growers under EHR and the impact of CC on its cultivation. Perceived and scientific data were used for accurate decision-support information. The climatic variables of two locations were analyzed for trend using Mann–Kendall's test. Results suggested that the rainfall trend was found non-significant for both locations, but there was a negative trend during winter for Pasighat and during all seasons for Itanagar. Maximum temperature exhibited an increasing trend for annual, and minimum temperature showed an increasing trend across seasons for the Pasighat region. For the Itanagar region, the maximum temperature was found to have a significantly increasing trend in all seasons, while the minimum temperature showed an increasing trend during winter and annual seasons. Morning relative humidity showed an increasing trend for annual data for Pasighat, while annual evening relative humidity was significantly increased for Itanagar. The study shows that the indigenous farming communities were following shifting cultivation and diversifying their traditional agriculture to kiwifruit cultivation as an adaptation strategy. The community had a clear perception of CC trends and an inadequate perception of the impact on agriculture, therefore, engaging indigenous communities and other stakeholders to postulate a comprehensive adaptation and mitigation strategy for CC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Finland, agriculture is practiced in variable growing conditions that are further challenged by climate change and under external pressure caused by international competition, changing consumer preferences and demands, and the renewal of the European Union Common Agriculture Policy and Paris Agreement climate targets. Futures studies in agriculture have focused on scenario building with expert panels, though usually without farmers' involvement. This study focuses on farmers' views of shaping the future of Finnish agriculture. It builds on the disaggregative Delphi method and combines interviews and a representative survey of Finnish farmers. The study is based on a bottom-up process in which a farmer panel of 20 farms defined their views of the future in a semi-structured thematic interview. The views were turned into statements in a structured survey sent to the second panel, which comprised all Finnish farmers who had received agricultural subsidies in 2016, with 4401 respondents. The results were analyzed using quantitative factor analysis, which produced five future images for Finnish agriculture. The images were shown to the original farmer panel for reflection. They considered the probability of each future image and their own role in it. Technology solves as a future image was most favored by farmers, followed by Ecological and specializing small-scale production image. Business-as-usual was the least likely future images according to the interviewed farmers. This paper describes the process and discusses both methodological benefits and pitfalls, as well as farmers' future views of the forthcoming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our environment has been significantly impacted by climate change. According to previous research, insect catastrophes induced by global climate change killed many trees, inevitably contributing to forest fires. The condition of the forest is an essential indicator of forest fires. Analysis of aerial images of a forest can detect deceased and living trees at an early stage. Automated forest health diagnostics are crucial for monitoring and preserving forest ecosystem health. Combining Modified Generative Adversarial Networks (MGANs) and YOLOv5 (You Only Look Once version 5) is presented in this paper as a novel method for assessing forest health using aerial images. We also employ the Tabu Search Algorithm (TSA) to enhance the process of identifying and categorizing unhealthy forest areas. The proposed model provides synthetic data to supplement the limited labeled dataset, thereby resolving the frequent issue of data scarcity in forest health diagnosis tasks. This improvement enhances the model's ability to generalize to previously unobserved data, thereby increasing the overall precision and robustness of the forest health evaluation. In addition, YOLOv5 integration enables real-time object identification, enabling the model to recognize and pinpoint numerous tree species and potential health issues with exceptional speed and accuracy. The efficient architecture of YOLOv5 enables it to be deployed on devices with limited resources, enabling forest-monitoring applications on-site. We use the TSA to enhance the identification of unhealthy forest areas. The TSA method effectively investigates the search space, ensuring the model converges to a near-optimal solution, improving disease detection precision and decreasing false positives. We evaluated our MGAN-YOLOv5 method using a large dataset of aerial images of diverse forest habitats. The experimental results demonstrated impressive performance in diagnosing forest health automatically, achieving a detection precision of 98.66%, recall of 99.99%, F1 score of 97.77%, accuracy of 99.99%, response time of 3.543 ms and computational time of 5.987 ms. Significantly, our method outperforms all the compared target detection methods showcasing a minimum improvement of 2% in mAP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stochastic synthesis of extreme, rare climate scenarios is vital for risk and resilience models aware of climate change, directly impacting society in different sectors. However, creating high-quality variations of under-represented samples remains a challenge for several generative models. This paper investigates quantizing reconstruction losses for helping variational autoencoders (VAE) better synthesize extreme weather fields from conventional historical training sets. Building on the classical VAE formulation using reconstruction and latent space regularization losses, we propose various histogram-based penalties to the reconstruction loss that explicitly reinforces the model to synthesize under-represented values better. We evaluate our work using precipitation weather fields, where models usually strive to synthesize well extreme precipitation samples. We demonstrate that bringing histogram awareness to the reconstruction loss improves standard VAE performance substantially, especially for extreme weather events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a validation of outputs from some GCMs of the CMIP6 project when used to assess climate projection and hydrological flows at a catchment scale for the case study area of the Lombardy region (Northern Italy). The modeling chain consists of (i) a choice of climatic scenarios from 10 GCMs of the CMIP6, (ii) the application of a stochastic downscaling procedure to make projections usable at the local scale, and (iii) the use of a semi-distributed physically based hydrological model Poli-Hydro for the generation of hydrological scenarios. Data on observed precipitation and temperature were collected from automatic weather stations, and the hydrological budget of four target catchments within the study area was assessed using Poli-Hydro. An ex-post (back-casting) analysis was performed upon the control data series from the GCMs by comparing statistics of relevant climate variables and model-simulated discharges against observed counterparts during the historical period 2002–2014. Then, during 2015–2021, the goodness of projections was assessed using confidence intervals. Our results show that the accuracy of GCMs in representing regional climate is not always reflected in a credible evaluation of local hydrology. The validation of climate patterns provides somewhat poor results; thus, the interaction among climate and hydrology needs to be explored carefully to warrant the credibility of hydrological scenarios. Overall, the spatial and temporal consistency of GCM projections, as explored here climatically and hydrologically, provides a clue about their dependability for basin scale management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper addresses the escalating global issue of electronic waste (e-waste), a consequence of the burgeoning demand for electronic products coupled with their transient lifespan. The rapid accumulation of e-waste is a significant concern, especially in the context of climate change, necessitating a detailed analysis of current management strategies and the development of sustainable management practices. The intricate relationship between e-waste and climate change is emphasized, illustrating how improper disposal and recycling practices substantially contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. A meticulous analysis is conducted to critique the prevailing e-waste management strategies, identifying their shortcomings and the urgent need for enhancement and globalization of these protocols. The paper argues for a fortified, universal approach to e-waste management to address the deficiencies in current methodologies. A set of strategic, sustainable solutions for e-waste management is proposed, encompassing comprehensive regulatory frameworks, advanced recycling technologies, the incorporation of eco-design principles, and the enhancement of consumer awareness. These solutions pivot around the circular economy concept, viewing waste as a valuable resource rather than a disposal predicament, thereby promoting sustainability. Short conclusion: The paper concludes that a consolidated, global approach to e-waste management is imperative for addressing the proliferation of discarded electronics and is pivotal in the wider context of mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable development. It underscores the transformative potential of sustainable e-waste management, transforming a formidable challenge into an opportunity for environmental conservation, economic growth, and societal progress, emphasizing the importance of viewing e-waste management as a vehicle for sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future risk for droughts and water shortages calls for substantial efforts by authorities to adapt at local levels. Understanding their perception of drought hazards, risk and vulnerability can help to identify drivers of and barriers to drought risk planning and management in a changing climate at the local level. This paper presents a novel interdisciplinary drought case study in Sweden that integrates soft data from a nationwide survey among more than 100 local practitioners and hard data based on hydrological measurements to provide a holistic assessment of the links between drought severity and the perceived levels of drought severity, impacts, preparedness, and management for two consecutive drought events. The paper highlights challenges for drought risk planning and management in a changing climate at the local level and elaborates on how improved understanding of local practitioners to plan for climate change adaptation can be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Henan Province is the birthplace of Chinese civilization and one of the earliest human settlements, which means that the area has an important national cultural heritage. Traditional villages are an important facet of this cultural heritage, and studying their spatiotemporal characteristics in different periods has important theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development and protection of cultural heritage in the region. This paper takes the traditional villages of the Yellow River basin in Henan Province that were formed before 1919 as the research object. Information on the ancient river was obtained through a literature search as well as via field research, and the important tributaries of the Yellow River in different periods were mapped using ArcGIS 10.0 software. The nearest neighbor index, kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse and other methods were adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the traditional villages. The factors that influenced the evolution of traditional villages were explored in depth by combining changes in the course of the river and water conservancy projects. The results show that the formation of traditional villages along the Yellow River in Henan Province has experienced a historical track of growth, contraction, growth and prosperity and stability. The traditional villages along the Yellow River in Henan Province generally show a clustered pattern, forming a dense concentration of traditional villages in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The center of gravity shows a migration trend from southeast to northwest. In terms of influencing factors, the spatiotemporal evolution of the relationship between villages and their distance to water is closely related to climatic fluctuations, changes in channel, water conservancy projects and social and cultural factors. This paper deepens our understanding of the relationship between traditional village evolution and watersheds by improving the consistency between village spatial distribution and historical geography and provides a useful theoretical reference for the sustainable development of China's traditional villages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in patterns of meteorological parameters, like precipitations, temperature, wind, etc., are causing significant increases in various extreme events. And these extreme events, i.e., floods, heatwaves, hurricanes, droughts, etc., lead to a shortage of water resources, crop failures, wildfires, and economic losses. However, Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered the most important tools for quantifying climate change. Therefore, we selected 20 different GCMs of precipitation in our research, as the frequency of extreme events, like drought and flood, is highly related to changes in precipitation patterns. However, this research introduced a new weighting scheme — MCFSAWS-Ensemble: Monte Carlo Feature Selection Adaptive Weighting Scheme to Ensemble multiple GCMs, whereas, Monte Carlo Feature Selection (MCFS) is one of the most popular algorithms for discovering important variables. However, the proposed weighting scheme (MCFSAWS-Ensemble) is mainly based on two sources. Initially, it evaluates the prior performance of each GCM model to define their relative importance using MCFS. Then, it computes value by value difference between the observed and simulated model. In addition, the application of this paper is based on the monthly time series data of precipitation in the Tibet Plateau region of China. In addition, we used twenty GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to analyze the implications of the MCFSAWS-Ensemble. Further, we compared the performance of the MCFSAWS-Ensemble scheme with Simple Model Averaging (SMA) through Mean Average Error (MAE) and correlation statistics. The results of this research indicate that the proposed weighting scheme (MCFSAWS-Ensemble) is more accurate than the SMA approach. Consequently, we recommend the use of advanced machine learning algorithms such as MCFS for making accurate multi-model ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a critical issue related to power management control in autonomous hybrid systems is presented. Specifically, challenges in optimizing the performance of energy sources and backup systems are proposed, especially under conditions of heavy loads or low renewable energy output. The problem lies in the need for an efficient control mechanism that can enhance power availability while protecting and extending the lifespan of the various power sources in the system. Furthermore, it is necessary to adapt the system's operations to variations in climatic conditions for sustained effectiveness. To address the identified problem. It is proposed the use of an intelligent power management control (IPMC) system employing fuzzy logic control (FLC). The IPMC is designed to optimize the performance of energy sources and backup systems. It aims to predict and adjust the system's operating processes based on variations in climatic conditions, providing a dynamic and adaptive control strategy. The integration of FLC is specifically emphasized for its effectiveness in balancing multiple power sources and ensuring a steady and secure operation of the system. The proposed IPMC with FLC offers several advantages over existing strategies. Firstly, it showcases enhanced power availability, particularly under challenging conditions such as heavy loads or low renewable energy output. Secondly, the system protects and extends the lifespan of the power sources, contributing to long-term sustainability. The dynamic adaptation to climatic variations adds a layer of resilience to the system, making it well-suited for diverse geographical and climatic conditions. The use of realistic data and simulations in MATLAB/Simulink, along with real-time findings from the RT-LAB simulator, indicates the reliability and practical applicability of the proposed IPMC strategy. Efficient load supply and preserved batteries further underscore the benefits of the fuzzy logic-based control strategy in achieving a well-balanced and secure system operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, we find ourselves in a paradigm in which we believe that accepting climate change data will lead to a kind of automatic action toward the preservation of our environment. I have argued elsewhere (Fried 2020) that this lack of civic action on climate data is significant when placed in the historical, military context of the technologies that collect this data––Earth remote sensing technologies. However, I have not yet discussed the phenomenological or moral implications of this context, which are deeply interconnected. In this paper, I assert that Earth remote sensing technologies can, if we are not careful, lead us to a kind of environmental deskilling. This assertion comes in four parts. First, the military context of Earth remote sensing technologies––which collect important data on climate change––acts as a kind of stability, as defined by Don Ihde and others. Second, I invoke Sir Patrick Heelan to argue that the theoretical underpinnings of Earth systems science do not translate from military to environmental praxes as we imagine they do. Third, Hannah Arendt makes the case that a state's trust in simplifying narratives like that of climate data, meant to create "islands" of certainty in an uncertain world, can be self-defeating. That is to say, they can silence public action. I extend these arguments through Vallor's analysis of moral deskilling, in which she points out that an overemphasis on autonomous data collection––and trust in a kind of automated decision-making on that data––can deskill us from important questions relevant to our collective flourishing. In all of these examples, the lines between environmental and military research are blurry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global distribution of salt-affected soils (SAS) has remained at about 1 billion hectares in the literature over the years despite changes in climate, sea levels, and land use patterns which influence the distribution. Lack of periodic update of input soil data, data gaps, and inconsistency are part of the reasons for constant SAS distribution in the literature. This paper proposes harmonization as a suitable alternative for managing inconsistent data and minimizing data gaps. It developed a new harmonization service for supporting country-driven global SAS information update. The service contains a global library of harmonization models for harmonizing inconsistent soil data. It also contains models for identifying gaps in SAS database and for showing global distribution where harmonization of available data is needed. The service can be used by countries to develop national SAS information and update global SAS distribution. Its data availability index is useful in identifying countries without SAS data in the global database, which is a convenient way to identify countries to mobilize when updating global SAS information. Its application in 27 countries showed that the countries have more SAS data than they currently share with the global databases and that most of their data require SAS harmonization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What are Cy Twombly's sculptures made of? This article presents an overview of a non-destructive examination conducted on three sculptures by American artist Cy Twombly (1928–2011) as part of an art-technological research project at the Doerner Institut in Munich. The artworks are part of the collection of the Brandhorst Museum and belong to Twombly's series of so-called 'Original Sculptures': assemblages of individual found objects, which the artist covered and modified with layers of plaster and white paint. To develop a long-term preservation strategy, the research focused on understanding the materials and construction methods used in Twombly's sculptures. In collaboration with the Chair of Non-Destructive Testing at the Technical University of Munich, the artworks were inspected using X-ray radiography and computed tomography. The results showed that Cy Twombly used various everyday objects made from wood, plastics, metal, and paper/cardboard to build the assemblages. Unexpectedly, the examinations revealed that the individual parts are solely held together by the coating of plaster and paint, lacking additional mechanical connections. The overall structure thus proved to be very fragile and highly sensitive to physical stresses, whether due to handling, transport, or strains in the microstructure caused by climatic fluctuations. Since little was known about Cy Twombly´s choice of materials and manufacturing details, the results offer valuable insights into the overall artistic process and decision-making of one of the most influential artists of the 20th/twenty-first centuries. Conservators can use the art-technological findings to monitor the sculptures 'condition and develop or adapt long-term preservation strategies, including aspects such as ambient climatic conditions and handling storage and transport specifications. In addition, the knowledge generated can be used for further research on the specific materials and transferred to other artworks by Cy Twombly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Globally, climate change is one of the most pressing issues affecting the human race. The health of the Kazakh people is significantly impacted by climate change, which has made Kazakhstan one of the most vulnerable nations in Central Asia. This study reviews the impact of climate change on population health in Kazakhstan and provides recommendations to address these issues. This review paper evaluated available evidence and resources, which included journal articles, country reports, World Bank reports, United Nations Development Program reports, and other findings and reports relevant to the issues of climate change and the quality of life of the Kazakh people. The impact of climate change on the country is becoming more pronounced. Floods, deterioration of water quality, melting of glaciers, and extremes of temperature are some of the direct impacts of climate change observed in the country. These changes were shown to affect the health of the population. Short conclusion: This review revealed mounting proof of how climate change is having an increasing impact on the lives of people in Kazakhstan. There is now an urgency to address the impact of climate change by implementing various mitigation and adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number and diversity of phenological studies has increased rapidly in recent years. Innovative experiments, field studies, citizen science projects, and analyses of newly available historical data are contributing insights that advance our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to the environment, particularly climate change. However, many phenological data sets have peculiarities that are not immediately obvious and can lead to mistakes in analyses and interpretation of results. This paper aims to help researchers, especially those new to the field of phenology, understand challenges and practices that are crucial for effective studies. For example, researchers may fail to account for sampling biases in phenological data, struggle to choose or design a volunteer data collection strategy that adequately fits their project's needs, or combine data sets in inappropriate ways. We describe ten best practices for designing studies of plant and animal phenology, evaluating data quality, and analyzing data. Practices include accounting for common biases in data, using effective citizen or community science methods, and employing appropriate data when investigating phenological mismatches. We present these best practices to help researchers entering the field take full advantage of the wealth of available data and approaches to advance our understanding of phenology and its implications for ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of the rapidly growing agricultural sector, spotting signs of climate change is crucial. Even a slight change in climate behaviour can hinder crop development. As a result, it is necessary to investigate these climatic signals at a localised regional scale. The current methods mainly emphasise on outliers when identifying abnormalities in geographical and temporal data. This disregards the possibility of negative impacts brought on by climatic changes at each location. This paper introduces a novel mathematical approach, named the probabilistic convolution neighborhood technique (PCNT), that finds the temporal and spatial coherence at each point. Its ability to examine distribution at all grid points makes it easy to identify even a slight change in climatic variables. This new approach has been applied to study the variations in parameters, namely humidity, precipitation, mean, and maximum temperatures, that are collected from the Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) for the time period 1980 to 2020. The datasets are daily single-level datasets from which annual and seasonal (Kharif, Rabi, and Zaid) data are obtained. Spatio-temporal properties, along with inter-vicennial and inter-decadal variations of climatic variables with regions having low, high, and normal probability distributions, are studied. The findings showed a pattern in the temporal features between Kharif and Rabi. The mean temperature for the annual and seasonal data showed decreasing trends for tail diagnostics. The study brings out an understanding in the probable change in various metrics, which are crucial in the context of crop growth and agricultural practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the future patterns of precipitation behaviour in unique geographical areas, largely determined by their orography and local scale, can help lay the foundations for a new precipitation model for the design of the city's main urban drainage infrastructures (intensity-duration-frequency curves, mathematical functions that relate precipitation intensity to duration and frequency of occurrence, hereafter IDF, for the short-, medium- and long-term future). This will definitely contribute to the improvement of the city's resilience to the effects of climate change. In this paper, the projections of a subset of climate change models from both the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; with a total of 5 simulations) and Euro-CORDEX (for a set of 51 simulations) have been adjusted to the municipality of Alicante (in the southeast of Spain), using the Climadjust tool (climadjust.com). These projections contain different climatic variables. The rainfall variable has been used to derive a new framework of boundary conditions to help design more resilient infrastructure for torrential rainfall events and urban flooding. The projections corresponding to three climate change scenarios (CMIP6: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5; and Euro-CORDEX: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are considered with daily resolution and, by applying statistical techniques of temporal disaggregation (by means of a cascade model), hourly (and sub-hourly, reaching 30-min resolution) disaggregation. The results at hourly and 30-min resolutions are used to construct IDF curves of future climate, grouped into short-term (years 2015 to 2040), medium-term (years 2041 to 2070) and long-term (years 2071 to 2100) sub-scenarios. The selected future climate IDFs for an adverse climate change scenario (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) show increases in rainfall intensities, higher the shorter the rainfall duration, for return periods greater than or equal to 25 years, whereas for return periods under 25 years the current IDFs can be representative of future scenarios. Current calculations and future projection of the torrentiality index for severe climate change scenarios, as well as the climate change factors, show an increase in the frequency and magnitude of the heaviest rainfall. This fact corroborates the hypotheses of greater general torrentiality in future rainfall in this specific area of the Spanish Mediterranean coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cellular signaling generates calcium (Ca2+) ions, which are ubiquitous secondary messengers decoded by calcium-dependent protein kinases, calcineurins, calreticulin, calmodulins (CAMs), and CAM-binding proteins. Previous studies in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana have shown the critical roles of the CAM-BINDING PROTEIN 60 (CBP60) protein family in plant growth, stress responses, and immunity. Certain CBP60 factors can regulate plant immune responses, like pattern-triggered immunity, effector-triggered immunity, and synthesis of major plant immune-activating metabolites salicylic acid (SA) and N-hydroxypipecolic acid (NHP). Although homologous CBP60 sequences have been identified in the plant kingdom, their function and regulation in most species remain unclear. In this paper, we specifically characterized 11 members of the CBP60 family in the agriculturally important crop tomato (Solanum lycopersicum). Protein sequence analyses revealed that three CBP60 homologs have the closest amino acid identity to Arabidopsis CBP60g and SARD1, master transcription factors involved in plant immunity. Strikingly, AlphaFold deep learning–assisted prediction of protein structures highlighted close structural similarity between these tomato and Arabidopsis CBP60 homologs. Conserved domain analyses revealed that they possess CAM-binding domains and DNA-binding domains, reflecting their potential involvement in linking Ca2+ signaling and transcriptional regulation in tomato plants. In terms of their gene expression profiles under biotic (Pseudomonas syringae pv. tomato DC3000 pathogen infection) and/or abiotic stress (warming temperatures), five tomato CBP60 genes were pathogen-responsive and temperature-sensitive, reminiscent of Arabidopsis CBP60g and SARD1. Overall, we present a genome-wide identification of the CBP60 gene/protein family in tomato plants, and we provide evidence on their regulation and potential function as Ca2+-sensing transcriptional regulators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The major cause of soil degradation (contamination, erosion, compaction) is closely linked to agriculture, i.e., unsustainable agriculture practices, which are reflected in the depletion of the soil organic carbon pool, loss in soil biodiversity, and reduction of C sink capacity in soils. Therefore, the agricultural practice of applying carbon-rich materials into the soil is an attractive solution for climate change mitigation and soil ecosystem sustainability. The paper aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the addition of organic-mineral mixtures to the mineral salts (NPK), including the exogenous organic matter (lignite) mixed with zeolite-carbon (NaX-C) or zeolite-vermiculite (NaX-Ver) composites in the restoration of soils contaminated with PAHs. The addition of zeolite composites to fertilizer resulted in a significant reduction in soil PAH levels and a corresponding reduction in plant tissue content, without compromising yields, compared to the control and separate application of NPK. A Significant correlation between PAHs and pHH2O, pHKCl, EC and dehydrogenase activity (DhA) was found in soils. The addition of zeolite composites with lignite significantly reduced the content of PAHs in straws, especially following the application of NaX-C. However, in the case of grains, the highest percentage reduction in comparison to NPK was observed for the highest dose of NaX-Ver. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global distribution of salt-affected soils (SAS) has remained at about 1 billion hectares in the literature over the years despite changes in climate, sea levels, and land use patterns which influence the distribution. Lack of periodic update of input soil data, data gaps, and inconsistency are part of the reasons for constant SAS distribution in the literature. This paper proposes harmonization as a suitable alternative for managing inconsistent data and minimizing data gaps. It developed a new harmonization service for supporting country-driven global SAS information update. The service contains a global library of harmonization models for harmonizing inconsistent soil data. It also contains models for identifying gaps in SAS database and for showing global distribution where harmonization of available data is needed. The service can be used by countries to develop national SAS information and update global SAS distribution. Its data availability index is useful in identifying countries without SAS data in the global database, which is a convenient way to identify countries to mobilize when updating global SAS information. Its application in 27 countries showed that the countries have more SAS data than they currently share with the global databases and that most of their data require SAS harmonization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural sectors worldwide are under direct threat from climate change conditions. In Iran, agricultural production has decreased due to droughts originating in an increase in annual maximum temperatures—with the corresponding increase in crop respiration and evapotranspiration—and a decrease in accumulated precipitation. Based on a static computable general equilibrium approach, this paper reports implication for the Iranian economy from the effects of climate change on agriculture––as modeled through three scenarios relying on assumptions about the magnitude of continued reduction in total agricultural production. Reductions of 6%, 12%, and 18% in total agricultural production reasonably cover the range of impacts that climate change is expected to impose on the Iranian agricultural sector––under the assumption that no behavioral adaptations or policy interventions are in place. Our simulations suggest that effects on the Iranian economy imply a reduction in GDP ranging between 3.7 and 6.3%. In addition, 5–17% of labor moves away from the agriculture sector––this labor relocation occurs due to declining agriculture incomes. Findings illustrate that climate change will reduce households' consumption and income in all economic sectors, particularly among rural households. We suggest that policies in Iran should focus on improving cultivation methods to save water resources and alleviate the expected effects of climate change. The current study's outcomes are helpful for policymakers, especially in countries with water scarcity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seamless prediction is a weather–climate integrated prediction covering multiple time scales that include days, weeks, months, seasons, years, and decades. Seamless prediction can provide different industries with information such as weather conditions and climate variations from the next few days to years, which have important impacts on economic and social development and important reference value for short-, medium- and long-term decision-making and planning of the country. Therefore, seamless prediction has received widespread attention from the international scientific community recently. As Chinese scientists have also carried out relevant research, this paper reviews the research in China on developments and applications of seamless prediction methods and prediction systems in recent years. Among them, the main progress of seamless prediction methods studies is reviewed from four aspects: short- and medium-range weather forecasting, subseasonal-to-seasonal, seasonal-to-interannual, and decadal climate prediction. In terms of development and application of seamless prediction systems, the main achievements made by meteorological operational departments, scientific institutes, and universities in China in recent years are reviewed. Finally, some of the issues in seamless prediction that need further study are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influences of human activity on regional climate over China have been widely reported and drawn great attention from both the scientific community and governments. This paper reviews the evidence of the anthropogenic influence on regional climate over China from the perspectives of surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation, droughts, and surface wind speed, based on studies published since 2018. The reviewed evidence indicates that human activities, including greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, land use and cover change, urbanization, and anthropogenic heat release, have contributed to changes in the SAT trend and the likelihood of regional record-breaking extreme high/low temperature events over China. The anthropogenically forced SAT signal can be detected back to the 1870s in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau region. Although the anthropogenic signal of summer precipitation over China is detectable and anthropogenic forcing has contributed to an increased likelihood of regional record-breaking heavy/low precipitation events, the anthropogenic precipitation signal over China is relatively obscure. Moreover, human activities have also contributed to a decline in surface wind speed, weakening of monsoon precipitation, and an increase in the frequency of droughts and compound extreme climate/weather events over China in recent decades. This review can serve as a reference both for further understanding the causes of regional climate changes over China and for sound decision-making on regional climate mitigation and adaptation. Additionally, a few key or challenging scientific issues associated with the human influence on regional climate changes are discussed in the context of future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the recent four decades since 1980, a series of modern climate satellites were launched, allowing for the measurement and record-keeping of multiple climate parameters, especially over the polar regions where traditional observations are difficult to obtain. China has been actively engaging in polar expeditions. Many observations were conducted during this period, accompanied by improved Earth climate models, leading to a series of insightful understandings concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate changes. Here, we review the recent progress China has made concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate change research over the past decade. The Arctic temperature increase is much higher than the global-mean warming rate, associated with a rapid decline in sea ice, a phenomenon called the Arctic Amplification. The Antarctic climate changes showed a zonally asymmetric pattern over the past four decades, with most of the fastest changes occurring over West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The Arctic and Antarctic climate changes were driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and ozone loss, while tropical-polar teleconnections play important roles in driving the regional climate changes and extreme events over the polar regions. Polar climate changes may also feedback to the entire Earth climate system. The adjustment of the circulation in both the troposphere and the stratosphere contributed to the interactions between the polar climate changes and lower latitudes. Climate change has also driven rapid Arctic and Southern ocean acidification. Chinese researchers have made a series of advances in understanding these processes, as reviewed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the role of soil microorganisms in the dynamics of soil organic matter (SOM) and how it is affected by land use and climate change. The authors highlight recent research that has shifted the understanding of SOM dynamics, emphasizing the importance of microbially derived SOM, microbial necromass, and root biomass and exudates. The article also presents five papers that investigate microbial control of SOM dynamics under different land uses and management practices. The findings suggest that microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is a key factor in balancing SOC accumulation and loss. The article concludes by emphasizing the need for a deeper understanding of microbial control of SOM dynamics in order to develop effective strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. [Extracted from the article]

To clarify the current situation, hotspots, and development trends in the field of rice and climate change topic research, a massive literature dataset were analyzed from the Web of Science database by bibliometric method. The research theme was chosen given the continuous increase of studies related to climatic changes and their consequences to rice. Based on the Web of Science core database, this study analyzed 4170 papers in the field of rice and climate change topic research from 1990 to July 2022, which include 86 highly cited papers and 3 hot papers. Papers were mainly written in English (4157, 99.688%), from 16,363 authors, 4017 organizations, and 129 countries/territories, published in 841 journals and seven book series. The top five Journals are Science of the Total Environment (136, 3.261%), Sustainability (89, 2.134%), Agronomy Basel (81, 1.942%), Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (77, 1.847%), and Climatic Change (74, 1.775%), each published more than 74 papers. Top five countries and regions of People's Republic of China, the USA, India, Australia, and Japan were the major article contributors, each published more than 360 papers. Top five organizations of Chinese Acad Sci, Nanjing Agr Univ, Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Chinese Acad Agr Sci, and Int Rice Res Inst (IRRI) were popular based on contribution of articles more than 133 papers each. Among the all authors, top five authors were Tao Fulu, Pan Genxing, Zhang Zhao, Hasegawa Toshihiro, and Iizumi Toshichika, each published more than thirty papers. All keywords were separated into eight clusters for different research topics. Visualizations offer exploratory information on the current state in a scientific field or discipline as well as indicate possible developments in the future. The results will help researchers clarify the current situation in rice and climate change adaptation science but also provide guidance for future research. This work is also useful for student identifying graduate schools and researchers selecting journals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensity and frequency of climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts and extreme rainfall events are projected to rise. This will increase the severity of their impacts across socio-ecological systems. Economic sectors such as nature-based tourism become more vulnerable because of their reliance on climate and natural capital as key resources. While attempts have been made to understand how climate change may impact tourists and the industry itself, little is known about the same on tourism-dependent communities. This paper determines the extent to which tourism-dependent communities are vulnerable to climate change in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, to enhance their wider livelihood the development of strategies for improving adaptive capacity, resilience, and reduced exposure sensitivities. A household survey of 172 households was conducted in three purposively selected villages of Mababe, Sankuyo and Khwai, actively involved in community-based tourism for their socio-economic development. Information sourced related to livelihood options, peoples’ resilience, local risks, and hazards. The data was analysed using descriptive statistics and thematic analysis. The results indicate that respondents have observed climatic changes over the years such as increased temperatures, decreased rainfall, and increased frequencies of extreme events. The respondents attributed changes in natural capital to these observed climatic conditions in the form of desiccation, dwindling populations of some wildlife species, decreased fish stocks and reduced vegetation cover. This renders the tourism-dependent communities vulnerable as their livelihood is threatened. The paper thus concludes that climate change adaptation is an urgent priority for local communities who are already exposed to existing climatic and non-climatic stresses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A crucial aspect analysed during the last years, aiming to improve sugarcane production, is the impact of climate change on sugarcane productivity. One of the strategies to mitigate climate change's impact on sugarcane yield is the development of new varieties known to positively affect crop production. This paper analysed how climate change impacts sugarcane production regarding the different planted varieties. Data regarding sugarcane harvest were collected from a cooperative in the south of Goiás state—Brazil, the second biggest national sugarcane producer. Results indicate that climate impact on sugarcane yield is irrelevant when controlling for different varieties. Considering the results presented in this work, the Brazilian government should keep the incentives for the development of new sugarcane varieties and, at the same time, spur sugarcane producers to use the new sugarcane varieties. The results imply that if the variety is correctly chosen, sugarcane can be produced without harming the environment, contributing to reaching SDG 15. Moreover, it is less probable that an adverse climatic event will destroy the planted area, preventing sugarcane producers from severe loss and contributing to achieving SDGs number 1 and 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is rapidly warming posing a significant threat to underlying permafrost. Permafrost degradation has already resulted in extensive damage to the Arctic's built infrastructure, putting communities and industries at risk. Projected climate warming will further reduce the capacity of permafrost to support infrastructure, thereby requiring a rethinking of construction and development of permafrost regions in the future. This paper focuses on three Arctic regions with a substantial presence of population and infrastructure on permafrost: USA (Alaska), Canada, and Russia. The three regions' permafrost construction practices are examined in order to identify best practices and major gaps. We identify a lack of standardized, codified construction guidelines; an absence of permafrost-geotechnical monitoring in communities; barriers to integrating climate scenarios into future planning; limited data sharing; and low numbers of permafrost professionals as major constraints limiting the region's resilience in the face of climate change. Refining building practices and standards, implementing operational permafrost monitoring systems, developing downscaled climate projections, and integrating local knowledge will minimize the impacts of permafrost degradation under rapidly warming climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of this study is to understand influences of bulk structure of geomaterials on water storage and transfer, in order to assess durability and climate change impact on the UNESCO world heritage sites in Alexandria, Egypt. This study deals with the responses of water towards the physiochemical and physicomechanical behaviours of Calcarenitic rocks, that are utilized in Greek and Roman monuments at Alexandria. Many vulnerable archaeological sites [2.3–2.5 m above mean sea level (M.S.L)] are identified at Alexandria, specifically at the Eastern Harbor, El-Shatby the Greek necropolis and Moustafa Kamil Roman tombs and addition to the Roman Catacombs of Kom El-Shoqafa which excavated with deepth − 18 m from the land surface. These UNESCO heritage sites suffer climate change impact (heavy rains and sea water rising) as well as multiple geoenvironmental and geophysical hazards. In this study a general outline of the various tests, surveys and analyses is presented, highlighting the most important issues related to the durability and climate change impact. This paper represents the comprehensive in-situ, field and laboratory surveys and tests undertaken in these outstanding world heritage sites. The field testing program comprises various geotechnical and geophysical field and laboratory tests aiming to define the physical, mechanical and dynamic properties of the hard soils/soft rock materials of the archaeological sites where these outstanding monuments are excavated and constracted. By analysis of linear correlations, some essential mechanisms should be underlined, which may connect the macrostructure to the microstructure of the geomaterial. A systematic method of analysis clearly appeared and emphasized the role of the bulk structure (i.e. grain size, grain contact, specific area, pore shape and microporosity) on petrophysical and petromechanical behavior of rock materials. The study revealed that the petrophysical and geomechanical properties of Calcarenitic rocks are influenced by size, shape, packing of grains, porosity, cement and matrix content, all controlled strongly by depositional fabric and postdepositional processes. The accurate analysis of the physiochemical and physicomechanical behaviours of Calcarenitic rocks that are utilized in Greek and Roman monuments at Alexandria allowed us to define the pathology of these monuments and to estimate the durability, climate change impact and ultimate geostatic loads that they can survive under their present geoenvironmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the severe effects of climate change on the agricultural sector, urgent action is required on the part of farmers and is, indeed, critical to reducing climate change impacts. However, reports globally revealed farmers' engagement in climate change adaptation is still insufficient, ambivalent, and inconsistent and farmers do not consider adaptation to be urgent. Researchers have argued that this issue is rooted in psychological biases beside other factors. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate how psychological distance determines climate change beliefs, risk perception and adaptation strategies among Iranian farmers. A cross-sectional paper-based survey was conducted in the Dasht-e Azadegan county of Khuzestan province in southwest Iran. The study sample consisted of 250 farmers selected through a multi-stage random sampling process. An expert panel review and a pilot study were conducted to confirm convergent validity and reliability of the scales. The results confirm that all four dimensions of psychological distance influence water management adaptation strategies and non-farm activities. Moreover, all psychological dimensions, except the temporal dimension, affect adaptation in farming management. Thus, making climate change more proximal to decision makers could be a strategic way of encouraging individuals to take adaptive actions. This study emphasizes that concepts of psychological distance can be applied to help organizations (e.g., agriculture extension services) to understand farmers' risk perceptions and responses to climate change impacts and improve risk communication to better engage farmers in climate action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban surfaces are often covered by impermeable materials such as concrete and asphalt which intensify urban runoff and pollutant concentration during storm events, and lead to the deterioration of the quality of surrounding water bodies. Detention ponds are used in urban stormwater management, providing two-fold benefits: flood risk reduction and pollution load minimization. This paper investigates the performance of nine proposed detention ponds (across the city of Renton, Washington, USA) under different climate change scenarios. First, a statistical model was developed to estimate the pollutant load for the current and future periods and to understand the effects of increased rainfall on stormwater runoff and pollutant loads. The Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model (PCSWMM) platform is employed to calibrate an urban drainage model for quantifying stormwater runoff and corresponding pollutant loads. The calibrated model was used to investigate the performance of the proposed nine (9) detention ponds under future climate scenarios of 100-year design storms, leading to identifying if they are likely to reduce stormwater discharge and pollutant loads. Results indicated significant increases in stormwater pollutants due to increases in rainfall from 2023 to 2050 compared to the historical period 2000–2014. We found that the performance of the proposed detention ponds in reducing stormwater pollutants varied depending on the size and location of the detention ponds. Simulations for the future indicated that the selected detention ponds are likely to reduce the concentrations (loads) of different water quality constituents such as ammonia (NH3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrate (NO3), total phosphate (TP), and suspended solids (SS) ranging from 18 to 86%, 35–70%, 36–65%, 26–91%, and 34–81%, respectively. The study concluded that detention ponds can be used as a reliable solution for reducing stormwater flows and pollutant loads under a warmer future climate and an effective adaptation option to combat climate change related challenges in urban stormwater management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Documenting trends in the health impacts of ambient temperature is key to supporting adaptation strategies to climate change. This paper explores changes in the temperature-related mortality in 18 French urban centers between 1970 and 2015. Method: A multicentric time-series design with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models was adopted to model the shape of the relationship and assess temporal changes in risks and impacts. Results: The general shape of the temperature-mortality relationship did not change over time, except for an increasing risk at very low percentiles and a decreasing risk at very high percentiles. The relative risk at the 99.9th percentile compared to the 50th percentile of the 1970–2015 temperature distribution decreased from 2.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.95:2.79] in 1975 to 1.33 [95% CI: 1.14:1.55] in 2015. Between 1970 and 2015, 302,456 [95% CI: 292,723:311,392] deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperatures, corresponding to 5.5% [95% CI: 5.3:5.6] of total mortality. This burden decreased progressively, representing 7.2% [95% CI: 6.7:7.7] of total mortality in the 1970s to 3.4% [95% CI: 3.2:3.6] in the 2000s. However, the contribution of hot temperatures to this burden (higher than the 90th percentile) increased. Discussion: Despite the decreasing relative risk, the fraction of mortality attributable to extreme heat increased between 1970 and 2015, thus highlighting the need for proactive adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For an effective reservoir operation during drought, the variations of both water supply and water demand which depend on hydrological and meteorological conditions need to be dealt with. This paper aimed to consider these variations in the Aharchay basin (Iran) by coupling a hedging rule (HR)-based reservoir operation model (HRROM) with a climate-based irrigation scheduling model (CBISM) at the farm level. Through the HRROM, optimal long-term decisions for Sattarkhan reservoir were made by considering the probable streamflow scenarios in the system. Given the variable agricultural demands (VAD) in the CBISM, the irrigation water was optimally allocated to the crops using several evapotranspiration (ET) scenarios. The CBISM employs three sub-models including linear programming (LP), nonlinear programming (NLP), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to maximize the total income of the Aharchay agricultural network as a function of the climate factors and the supplied water. To this end, the daily weather and discharge data from 1990 to 2015 were used in this study. The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the streamflow drought index (SDI) were used to detect the meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. The SPEI was calculated based on the high-resolution-gridded datasets of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). The findings demonstrated that the HRROM-CBISM generally managed to increase the time-based (αt) and volume-based (αv) reliability indices by 20% and 44%, respectively, compared with the conventional standard operation policy (SOP). For more investigations, the three major droughts of 2000–2002, 2004–2006, and 2008–2014 were separately analyzed. The average values of αt, αv, and vulnerability (V) for SOP were 0.33, 0.51, and 0.48, respectively. With the HRROM-CBISM, these values were about 0.5, 0.55, and 0.45, respectively. Among these indices, αt had the highest variations, while αv had the lowest variations in both the SOP and HRROM-CBISM approaches. The average water shortage for the mentioned droughts was significantly decreased from 89 (SOP) to 75 MCM (HRROM-CBISM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]