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This paper proposes a novel aviation CO 2 emissions reduction method by introducing a market-based incentive mechanism. An aviation carbon emissions prediction model is proposed to characterize both the microscopic flight dynamics and the macroscopic air traffic demand trend. Based on emissions prediction, a linear climate response model is applied to evaluate the environmental impact of the aviation carbon emissions. Finally, a market-based framework for aviation CO 2 emissions reduction is established based on a two-phase carbon trading model, which provides a piecewise charge method through emission taxation and cap-and-trade. A case study is carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework using a real-world dataset from the Hefei Air Traffic Control Zone in China. Three scenarios are defined to describe the possible development speed of sustainable aviation fuel application in the future: not applied, medium-speed development, and high-speed development. The results show that the carbon peak will be reached in 2025 in the high-speed development scenario, when the emission amount and associated environmental impact will be reduced by 23.7% and 22.3%, respectively. Thus, the market-based framework proposed in this paper can effectively reduce aviation CO 2 emissions and mitigate the effects of global warming. • An aviation CO 2 emissions prediction model is proposed considering both microscopic flight dynamics and macroscopic traffic demand. • A more efficient market-based CO 2 emission reduction framework is developed based on a two-phase carbon trading model by means of taxation and cap-and-trade. • Case study shows that the proposed method has a more optimal incentive for CO 2 emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric vehicles (EVs) are widely recognized as low-carbon transportation that adopts green and clean technology with contributing to mitigating global climate change. However, it appears that the practice in using EVs has not gained widespread popularity despite the promotion of various incentives with the presence of various restricting factors and challenges. In conducting this study in the context of China, we hypothesize that restricting factors have varying impacts on promoting EVs in China, where the adoption of EVs is of great potential. This paper identifies these restricting factors by applying AHP-FCE integrated approach, and these factors are classified into five dimensions, namely, technical, infrastructural, economic, governance and social. The results indicate that the top five restricting factors are security issues, limited driving range, long charging time, improper distribution of charging stations and lack of sharing between charging piles respectively. Our research contributes to a better understanding of EV restricting factors and their significance, which offers the assistance in the formulation of policies and decisions in order to promote effectively EVs in China. • The promotion of EVs is of great potential in China for mitigating global climate change. • Explore the RFPEVs in China using AHP-FCE integrated approach. • The RFPEVs in China can be classified into five dimensions, namely, technical, infrastructural, economic, governance and social. • The technical and infrastructural related are the most important constraints. • The main three important restricting factors are security issues, limited driving range, long charging time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The influences of the geometric parameters of the reactor on the SCPP-HPCR are investigated. • A formula is proposed to calculate the CO 2 emissions reduction of the system. • The optimal operating conditions of the SCPP-HPCR is analyzed. • 2.38 kg of CH 4 is degraded and 375.52 kg of CO 2 is reduced through the system one day. The increase of 1.09 °C in global temperature resulted in significant catastrophes because of the extreme climate. The climate change rate can be slowed down by reducing the levels of CH 4 and CO 2 in the atmosphere. The solar chimney power plant integrated with a honeycomb photocatalytic reactor (SCPP-HPCR) uses the photocatalytic technology to remove atmospheric CH 4. In addition, CO 2 emissions can be reduced from coal fired power plant due to the generating capacity of the system. In this paper, the influence of the geometric parameters of the reactor and turbine on the overall performance of the SCPP-HPCR is studied by numerical simulation. The obtained results showed that the flow resistance inside the system was mostly caused by the HPCR at low turbine speed, and primarily by the turbine at high turbine speed. Reducing the pore diameter of the reactor could improve the photocatalytic performance of the SCPP-HPCR more than increasing the turbine speed. The SCPP-HPCR having a pore diameter of 3 mm, porosity of 0.85, and constant turbine speed of 180 rpm, built in Qianyanzhou, China, could remove 2.38 kg of CH 4 and reduce 375.52 kg of CO 2 in one day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change leads to the frequent occurrence of natural disasters. It has had a severe impact on agricultural economic growth in China. Based on data in China from 2004 to 2020, this paper uses a fixed-effect model to discuss the effects of natural disasters on agricultural economic growth. The empirical results are as follows. (1) Natural disasters negatively affect agricultural economic growth. The regression coefficient of natural disasters on agricultural economic growth is −0.1183. (2) The inhibition of agricultural economic growth by natural disasters is more prominent in areas with low government attention and average agricultural production conditions. (3) The mechanism analysis shows that natural disasters inhibit agricultural economic growth through channels that cause the spread of diseases and pests. (4) Expanding the scale of agricultural insurance can prevent the impact of natural disasters on agricultural economic growth. This research provides policy recommendations for preventing the negative impacts of natural disasters. Agricultural producers should raise awareness of disaster management and improve the accuracy of disaster warning mechanisms. • This paper measures the level of natural disasters in China. • This paper expands the application field of functional data analysis methods. • This paper examines the mechanism of natural disasters affecting agricultural economic growth. • This paper provides policy suggestions for ensuring agricultural economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Preventing the impact of natural disasters on urban-rural income inequality helps to achieve shared prosperity. This paper uses the functional entropy weight method to calculate the level of natural disasters from 2004 to 2020. Then, this paper discusses the impact of natural disasters on the urban-rural income gap. The empirical results are as follows. (1) Natural disasters have expanded the urban-rural income gap. The regression coefficient is 0.2663, which is significant at the 1% level. (2) In areas with a high proportion of the rural population, the impact of natural disasters is more prominent. (3) Mechanism analysis indicates that natural disasters have widened the urban-rural income gap by restraining rural investment and agricultural production. Finally, this paper suggests strengthening investment in the agricultural sector to mitigate the negative impact of natural disasters. • This paper uses the functional entropy weight method to calculate the level of natural disasters. • This paper quantitatively measures the impact of natural disasters on the urban-rural income gap. • This paper examines the mechanism of the impact of natural disasters on the urban-rural income gap. • This paper provides policy suggestions for narrowing the urban-rural income gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A dengue model is proposed with parameters linked to climate and human factors. • Both local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium are analyzed. • Sensitive analysis reveals a decisive role of temperature in dengue spread. • Sensitive analysis discloses a local role of precipitation and human population. • Climate changes aggregate dengue burden more than human population. Dengue fever (DF) is a re-emerging disease spread by mosquitoes. It is primarily found in the tropics and subtropics, and its prevalence is heavily influenced by global warming. A comprehensive understanding of how the changes in climate and human population affect future dengue epidemics is crucial for effective prevention and control. In this paper we extend a mechanistic compartmental model for mosquito dynamics of immature and mature stages, coupled with human population dynamics. Stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium is carried out analytically, and the basic reproduction number is derived. Model parameters are explicitly linked to climatic variables and human population density. Model validation suggests that the basic reproduction number acts as a reliable measure of the spread ability of DF in response to future scenarios of climate and human population change. Our model predicts that the risk area of DF will expand considerably in mainland China, and the expansion fronts are mainly extended in the center and east. Most importantly, sensitivity analysis and model prediction both show that while temperature is critical in determining the threshold suitability for DF transmission, precipitation and human population density act locally to regulate the spreading DF patterns, where high values of these two factors may significantly accelerate the spreading process. Our results indicate a strong call for increased attention in the areas that are currently safe from DF, but climatically suitable for DF spread as consequence of the fast-economic growth and rapid urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic fluctuations in sea surface temperature within the North Atlantic Ocean (NA-SST) exert a pivotal influence on global climate change. Yet, the specific impacts of these variations on the temperature shifts within the Qinling-Bashan Mountains (QBM) of China, remain to be fully elucidated. Furthermore, a debate surrounding the manifestation of the Little Ice Age (LIA) within the QBM is ongoing, primarily due to the scarcity of reliable, long-term, and high-resolution temperature records. To bridge these knowledge gaps, in this paper, we present a ∼ 250-year temperature reconstruction (Tmax 11 – 7) developed based on a tree-ring-width chronology from the QBM. The new reconstruction not only aligns with a local winter temperature reconstruction based on historical document evidence, but also reveals robust regional and hemispheric temperature signals. Intriguingly, the study shows that the warming trend observed in the QBM since the Industrial Era is less pronounced than that witnessed across China and the Northern Hemisphere. The Tmax 11 – 7 reconstruction provides a glimpse into the final stages of the LIA, highlighting a relatively colder 19 th century followed by a warmer 20 th century. Notably, the warming trend post-1970s remains within the bounds of the 250-year temperature framework. The research further uncovers that NA-SST has predominantly governed the QBM's temperature fluctuations over the past centuries, as evidenced by the tight positive correlation between Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)/Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and Tmax 11 – 7. However, this dominant influence of NA-SST was temporarily subdued between 1900 and 1930 CE due to the interference of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This finding serves as a reminder that future temperature projections for the QBM must account not only for the primary role of NA-SST but also the modulating effects of the PDO. The study is essential for shaping effective environmental management and adaptation strategies in the region. • A ∼ 250-year temperature reconstruction is developed using tree rings from the QBM. • The QBM saw the last stage of the LIA and recent warming is within historical frame. • North Atlantic SST (NA-SST) played a positive and dominant role on QBM'S temperature changes. • Weakened NA-SST's impact on temperature in 1900–1930 CE was due to PDO's interference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather, especially typhoons, frequently impacts port operations, causing substantial economic losses. Thus, it has become vital to quantitatively evaluate the resilience of ports to typhoon disasters. This paper offers a comprehensive examination of the current evaluation methods used in assessing the resilience of ports and develops a quantitative port typhoon resilience assessment model based on the 4R (i.e., Reliability, Redundancy, Robustness, and Recoverability) framework. Ports' overall resilience to typhoon disasters can be assessed by integrating the analytic hierarchy process method, fuzzy logic, and the evidence reasoning approach. Four representative coastal ports in China were selected as case studies to examine the suitability and efficacy of the suggested model. This study provides innovative theoretical insights and empirical evidence to advance port resilience research, with a valuable reference for port administrators and policymakers, equipping them to address forthcoming challenges of climate change efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of pastoralism, as an alternative or adjunct to farming in China's long history, a clear understanding of the spreading routes and mechanisms of pastoralism in China is lacking. Fungal spores can be a useful addition to zooarchaeological evidence and have been widely used to explore the origins and development of pastoralism in different regions of the globe. The northern Loess Plateau is one of the most important areas for the emergence and development of pastoralism in early China. The aim of this paper was to take the fungal spores in the Baihemiao (BHM) core that we extracted from a site in the Yulin region, combine them with the zooarchaeological records to explore their relationship with climate and environmental changes, and reconstruct the evolution of animal husbandry in the northern Loess Plateau since the mid-Holocene. The results indicate that the climatic conditions in the northern Loess Plateau during the first period of 6–4.2 ka were relatively humid, the number of domesticated herbivores was small, animal husbandry was not developed, and the spores of coprophilous fungi in the sediments mainly originated from wild herbivores. Fungal spores as well as zooarchaeological evidence reveal that cattle and sheep grazing developed rapidly in the region during the second period, c. 4.2–3 ka. We suggest that the arid climatic conditions during this period facilitated the development of pastoral activities in the northern Loess Plateau. However, this pastoral economy gradually weakened after 1.2 ka. • Sporormiella suggests a high volume of herbivore activities in the Baihemiao area in 6–4.2 ka. • Fungal spores and zooarchaeological record from the archaeological sites indicate that grazing activity was strong in 4.2-3 ka. • Arid climatic conditions facilitated the development of pastoral activities in the northern Loess Plateau in 4.2–3 ka. • Pastoralism weakened and declined during the period from 3 ka to 1.2 ka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The food industry accounts for 25% of global carbon emissions, of which animal food accounts for 57%. Therefore, the reduction of carbon emissions from meat products consumption is one of the important issues of global climate governance. This study calculates and compares the carbon footprints of major meat products in China at various stages of production and consumption and the trends of their development based on life cycle assessment and questionnaires, which will help to understand the emission characteristics and reduction potential of the food sector in China. The results show that the main stages of the life cycle and the size of the total carbon footprint of the meat category for the same unit standard exhibit the following order: beef > mutton > pork > poultry (chicken and duck) > seafood (fish and shrimp); the farming factor has a greater impact on carbon emissions, followed by transportation and a smaller impact at the meal-making stage; from 2010 to 2021, China's total meat products consumption and carbon emissions continue to increase, but the structure of meat consumption is gradually diversified and balanced, and the trend of carbon emissions shows a slowdown in growth with structural changes. Finally, based on the results of the study, this paper proposes countermeasures for meat production and consumption. • Designed a unique meat consumption life cycle carbon footprint inventory and carbon emission calculation example diagram. • Measured the carbon footprint of different meat products and their life cycle phases in Chinese household meat consumption. • Analyzed the development trend of carbon emissions caused by the total and structural changes in China's meat consumption. • Identified potential opportunities for carbon emission reduction in meat consumption and propose targeted countermeasures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three major points of population migration toward the WHL occurred at 5200, 3800, and 2800 cal BP, which correspond to the seesaw changes of precipitation in western and eastern China. [Display omitted] How various peoples crossed geographical barriers, were affected by climate change and human-made technologies comprise some of the most interesting quandaries in the history of cultures. This paper considers the Hu line, which is a major boundary between population centres and different environments in China. The boundary became evident approximately 11,400 years ago; however, evidence suggests that people crossed through at 5200, 3800, and 2800 cal a BP, facilitating the increases of the trans-Eurasian exchange. The timings of the crossings correspond to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon that triggers seesaw changes of precipitation in western and eastern China. This analysis demonstrates that climate change on a millennial-to-centennial scale can have a profound influence on population distribution with long-term consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The silicon (Si) cycle is intimately interlinked with other biogeochemical cycles (e.g., carbon and nitrogen) and plays an important role in regulating long-term global climate change and biotic evolution in Earth's history. The abundance of cherts in Mesoproterozoic shallow-marine carbonates implies unique environmental conditions for silica precipitation, but the driving mechanism behind the Si cycle in Mesoproterozoic oceans remains unclear. In this paper, we report an integrated study of the cherts from the ∼1.48 Ga Wumishan Formation of North China. The Wumishan cherts predominantly consist of microquartz (∼90%), with some silica-replaced carbonate (∼5%) and minor pyrite (∼1%) grains, indicating that the cherts were largely formed through primary silica precipitation. High germanium/silicon molar ratios (Ge/Si = 0.71–19.1 μmol/mol; mean = 8.83) and positive europium anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 0.41–2.42; mean = 1.41) of the cherts suggest a considerable contribution from hydrothermally derived Si. Diverse microbial components, including organic-rich filaments, EPS (extracellular polymeric substances) relics, mat fragments and picocyanobacteria fossils, are observed in the Wumishan cherts. These components, together with abundant organominerals resulted from the interactions of microbes and dSi in ambient environments, imply that microbial activities played critical roles in silica deposition. The Si liberated from degraded EPS or EPS-Si complex may have locally increased the dSi concentrations and changed chemical conditions in the substrate and pore-waters, promoting silica precipitation. Given that picocyanobacteria and some other prokaryotes can accumulate significant amounts of silica in their cells and EPS, biogenic silica from decomposed microbial biomass may have exerted an important influence on silica precipitation in shallow-marine environments of the Mesoproterozoic ocean. [Display omitted] • Chert deposition in the ∼1.48 Ga Wumishan Fm was promoted by decomposed EPS-Si. • Si primarily sourced from seawater with a low contribution of hydrothermal-fluid silica. • The dSi concentrations of ∼0.67–1.0 mM estimated for the chert deposition lower than previous estimates for Precambrian oceans. • Microbial processes played critical roles in silica polymerization and the chert formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Holocene Temperature Conundrum refers to the mismatch between proxy-based temperature records and those based on climate model simulations. A possible reason for this mismatch is a putative proxy-based bias in reconstructed summer temperatures, and therefore, regional reconstructions of seasonal temperature are crucial for resolving the conundrum. In this paper, we reconstruct vegetation and climate changes over the last ∼10,000 years BP based on a high-resolution pollen record from Gushantun peatland, Changbai Mountains, Northeast China. Multiple quantitative reconstruction approaches were used and weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WAPLS) was found to be the most appropriate method for reconstructing Holocene temperature and precipitation. The reconstructed climate record shows that the Holocene Climate Optimum occurred between 8 ka and 6 ka and exhibited a cold month mean temperature that was 3 °C warmer than modern temperatures. Climate gradually cooled during late Holocene with a minimum cold month temperature of −19.6 °C. Four prominent cold events occurred around 8.7 ka BP, 7.8 ka BP, 5.7 ka BP, and 2.5 ka BP with an amplitude variation up to 3 °C. The synthesized seasonal temperature time series and a comparison with other proxies show that the decreasing trend in mean annual temperature is not a seasonal bias caused by summer temperature change. This study provides evidence of a Holocene seasonal temperature change at a regional scale and insights for further understanding of the Holocene Temperature Conundrum. • Reconstructed seasonal temperature changes based on a new high-resolution fossil pollen record in the Changbai Mountains • Synthesized climatic series in Northeast China to investigate the characteristics of regional temperature changes and their driving factors • Reconstructed winter temperature as evidence to address the alleged seasonal bias for the Holocene temperature conundrum [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has aroused the attention all over the world, because not only can it directly damage the living environment, but it can also impact on the social and economic development, of a region in an obvious and far-reaching way. In this paper, we builded a trans-log production function model incorporating variables, such as rainfall, labor force, technology and temperature to simulate how climate changes impacted on the regional economics. Time series data of the domestic economy of Nanjing, a city in the southeast China, between 1996 and 2017, were used to verify the production theory of trans-log production frontier. The results showed that: with the rainfall increased and the temperature declined, the climate impact on the economy and the absolute value of the output elasticity of the frontier diminished. In addtion, the climate change was also positively related to the capital investment. The larger variation of temperature negatively impacted on the economic development. • This paper builds a trans-log production function model. • Time series data are used to verify the production theory of trans-log production frontiers. • Analyzing the effect of climate change on the regional economy. • The larger variation of temperature negatively impacted on the economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Offshore aquaculture plays an important role in alleviating the pressure of coastal aquaculture and promoting the sustainable development of fisheries. And changes in ocean conditions caused by climate change will have a huge impact on mariculture. Considering the conditions of climate change, this study took the main mariculture fishes in China as the research object, used a species distribution model (SDM) to predict the potential mariculture areas of each fish under the current and different future (2040–2050) climate scenarios, divided the mariculture areas into three potential levels by natural breaks classification method, and calculated the area of different levels potential areas of each fish through the grid number and grid unit area. Additionally, this paper compares the potential area variation of different fishes under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that: (1)In the current climate, the potential area of Yellowtail kingfish(Seriola lalandi) is the largest among seven fishes, estimated at 1,288,500 km2. And the number of varieties suitable for aquaculture in the East China Sea and the South China Sea is more than that in the Bohai and Yellow Seas. (2)Compared with the high potential area of current and future climate scenarios, Large yellow croaker(Larimichthys crocea) has the largest increase, Yellowtail kingfish(Seriola lalandi) decreases under all four future climate scenarios, and both Cobia(Rachycentron canadum) and Allied Kingfish(Seriola dumerili) has small changes. (3)In the future climate scenarios, the number of species potentially suitable for culturing increases significantly in the Bohai and Yellow Sea area, and in the South China Sea, the suitable areas for cultured Large yellow croaker(Larimichthys crocea), gold pompanos(Trachinotus ovatus), Cobia(Rachycentron canadum) and Allied Kingfish(Seriola dumerili) decrease significantly. Overall, the potential areas of each fish show a northward trend. • We forecasted the potential areas of offshore finfish aquaculture in China • Mapping the distribution of offshore finfish aquaculture in China under current and future climate scenarios • Provides information for the selection of the offshore aquaculture species and the sea area planning in China • Provides information on the development direction for China's offshore aquaculture in response to climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of dry ports has reshaped the international freight shipping market, introducing both competition pressure (i.e., the common hinterland) and cooperation opportunities (sea-rail intermodal) for seaports. This is more evident in China with the development of the China Railway Express. Unlike dry ports, seaports are more vulnerable to climate change-related disasters, calling for investment in adaptation measures. This paper examines how co-opetition with the dry port affects seaport adaptation investment using a two-stage game-theoretical economic model. Results indicate that cooperation leads to more seaport adaptation investment, while competition results in reduced investment. When compared to the social optimal level of adaptation investment, the seaport tends to under-invest (over-invest) when the cooperation (competition) market size is larger. We also analyze how government subsidies in the seaport's adaptation help achieve optimal social adaptation and how the Knightian uncertainty of the disaster occurrence affects seaport adaptation investments. The relevant policy implications are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sedimentary sequences of the Yangtze River delta comprise important Quaternary records of tectonics, sea-level oscillation, and climatic change; however, analysis is hampered by a lack of a reliable chronological framework. In this paper, we present an integrated chronology for two sedimentary sequences (core ZKW2 and ZKW4) on the southern side of the Yangtze River delta, based on magnetostratigraphy and absolute methods (OSL, 14C, and ESR dating). The basal ages of the core ZKW2 and ZKW4 are ca. 2.25 Ma and 2.96 Ma, respectively. The integrated chronology indicates significant increases in the sedimentary accumulation rate at ∼0.15 Ma, rather than the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary as indicated by magnetostratigraphy alone. The observed sedimentary transition is possibly controlled by regional subsidence of the Zhe-Min Uplift, and climate evolution during the last interglacial period. • High-quality magnetostratigraphy is obtained for the Quaternary sediments in the YRD. • The SARs of the YRD sediments significantly enhanced since ∼0.15 Ma. • Tectonics and climate factors jointly control the sedimentary evolution in the YRD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Transition zones are the hotspots of bioclimatic changes under global warming. • Global warming extends growing season lengths but increases heat and water stresses. • Sustainable grasslands in China shrink and shift northwestward with global warming. Bioclimatic response to global warming is a key linkage between anthropogenic climate change and ecosystem sustainability, particularly for the impact-prone climate transition zones. This paper examines changes in heat-water conditions from 2006 to 2100 across China, using the fifth generation climate reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) and bias-adjusted climate projections by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We then assess the effects of these changes on habitat suitability for responsive ecosystems using a species distribution model. The results reveal significant changes in bioclimatic environments across dry–wet climate transition zones under the present-day climate and the RCP8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, local growing season length (GSL) could extend by 60 days and 30 % of the GSL could be under heat stress. Water conditions worsen overall in both the air and the soil, despite some improvements in the middle parts of transition zones. With altered heat-water conditions, sustainable grasslands shift northwestward, with a reduction of approximately 131 million km2 (46.6 % relative to 2006–2010) in total area. These changes primarily arise from alterations in winter and spring heat-water conditions. Our findings highlight the climate transition zones as hotspots of ecosystem vulnerability demanding particular attention in impact assessment and adaptation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensification of global climate change has led to a widespread consensus on carbon reduction, with the power industry being the principal contributor to carbon emissions necessitating an inevitable transition of its energy structure. Concomitantly, the escalating frequency of natural disasters caused by extreme weather presents formidable challenges to both secure power supply and the low-carbon transition of the power system. To fulfill the developmental requirements of a low-carbon power system and address the carbon emission risks imposed by natural disasters, this paper proposes a bi-level model for generation expansion planning (GEP) that incorporates constraints on the carbon emission trajectory and the influence of natural disasters. The planning-level model optimizes investment costs of various generation technologies and energy storage (ES), as well as the overall operational expenses over the planning period, with an objective to minimize them. It incorporates carbon emission trajectory constraints and policy constraints, such as carbon peaking, carbon neutrality and renewable energy (RE) penetration rates, in order to optimize the planning installed capacity of power sources. The operational-level model aims to minimize typical daily operating costs while also simulating power unit outputs in routine and disaster scenarios. A case study is conducted in a disaster-prone province in southern China to analyze the power generation expansion planning and the trajectory of carbon emissions from 2020 to 2060 under different scenarios. The simulation results show that compared to thermal power, the planning scheme mainly focused on RE with ES is better suited to achieve the goal of a low-carbon transition of the power grid. Moreover, after considering natural disasters, the cost and carbon emissions of power system planning are higher, and the risk of carbon emissions increases with the severity of disasters. • A multi-time scale bi-level low-carbon GEP model is proposed. • Natural disaster scenarios and low-carbon policy constraints are considered in the GEP model. • Carbon emission trajectory of the planned power system is estimated and introduced as a constraint into the GEP model. • Evaluation indicators that comprehensively consider low-carbon performance and economic feasibility are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low-carbon technology has become the focus of addressing global climate challenges but is facing the supply restriction of critical high-tech metals. Recycling has become a powerful measure to solve this issue. In the paper, a comprehensive recycling potential index (RPI) is constructed to evaluate the recycling potential of high-tech metals for low-carbon energy technologies in China from 2020 to 2050, and development strategies are proposed based on the evaluation results. The results indicate that the future trends of recycling potential show four evolution modes – either reaching or rapidly rising to a high level, increasing to the middle and middle-high level, unsteadily staying at the low and middle-low level, or remaining at a low and continuously decreasing level. According to the evolution trend, different strategies, including key development, reserves, digestion, and transfer, should be adopted in different stages. Co, Li, Dy, Nd, Tb, and Eu should be the focus of technology, funds and policy from both the government and enterprises due to their high recycling potential in the long term. Moreover, measures should be taken to encourage recycling and mitigate the supply risk of high-tech metals for low-carbon energy technologies, including tracking the development of low-carbon energy technologies, adjusting the list of critical high-tech metals, promoting recycling technology, and exploring substitute resources. [Display omitted] • A comprehensive recycling potential index is constructed to evaluate the recycling potential of high-tech metals. • The future trends of recycling potential of high-tech metals show four evolution modes. • Strategies like key development, reserves, digestion, and transfer should be adopted in different stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services and understanding their response to past climatic changes may help predict their possible future responses. In this paper, we obtained records of pollen, algae, sediment grain-size, and other environmental proxies, from a late Holocene sediment core (CFD-E) from the Caofeidian area, on the northwest coast of the Bay of Bohai, China. Our results indicate three major stages of environmental change. During Stage I (3500–2800 cal yr BP), arboreal pollen content was high (mostly >60%), especially for Pinus and Quercus , and the PCA sample scores on Axis 1 were negative indicating that regional vegetation was temperate broadleaved forest and the climate was wet. During Stage II (2800–2350 cal yr BP), the arboreal pollen content decreased substantially (mostly <40%), and the PCA Axis 1 sample scores were positive indicating a decrease in forest vegetation, grassland expansion, and a drier climate. During Stage III (2350–1400 cal yr BP), the arboreal pollen content increased again (mostly >40%), although it remained lower than during Stage I, indicating that forests expanded under a relatively humid climate while the wetland area decreased slightly. Our results also record the 2.8 ka and 2.4 ka events of monsoon weakening, which were characterized by increases in herbaceous pollen (indicating grassland expansion) and the drying of the regional climate. There are several differences in the regional expression of these two climatic events. During the 2.4 ka event, Chenopodiaceae pollen increased substantially (average of 42.0%), indicating the expansion of halophytes; whereas during the 2.8 ka event, an increase in Artemisia indicates the occurrence of a dry climate throughout the region. We suggest that the aridity during the 2.8 ka event was triggered by decreased solar activity and the resulting changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which weakened the East Asian summer monsoon. However, we suggest that the 2.4 ka event was driven by the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. • Significant increase in halophytic vegetation during 3500–1400 cal yr BP • The 2.8 ka and 2.4 ka events were characterized by climate drying lasting ∼150 years. • During these two events the area of forest decreased and grassland expanded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The periodicities of the climate change have long been explored by researchers not only because they reflect the inherent characteristics of the climate systems, but also because they are the foundations of climate-change predictability. This paper reports the periodicities of the hydroclimate variations reconstructed from a lacustrine sequence at Tiancun section (TC section) in the Luoyang Basin within the Central Plains of China and the sequence covers the first half of the Holocene. Our reconstruction shows that the hydroclimate variations at the TC section during the period from ∼10,135 and ∼ 5890 cal. yr BP were well corresponding with the effective soil moisture variations recorded by the stalagmite δ13C sequence at the Magou Cave. This corresponding relationship suggests that when the effective soil moisture increases (i.e., more negative δ13C values), the ratio of evaporation over precipitation in the paleolake at the TC section decreased, resulting in lower CaCO 3 content. It also suggests that when the effective soil moisture increases, more inflowing water entered the paleolake, resulting in coarser sediments. Our reconstruction also shows that the hydroclimate variations or lake level variations in the Luoyang Basin were characterized by millennial-scale quasi-periodicities that were most likely paced by the changes in ITCZ (Inter-tropical Convergent Zone) position and also by alterations in ENSO-like phase. And, both (ITCZ and ENSO) were most likely regulated by the solar activity. Our further analysis shows that the hydroclimate in the Luoyang Basin also experienced centennial-scale variations. Specifically, the grain size data express the following cycles: 692-year, 538-year, 217-year, 170-year and 123-year, all at the 99% confidence level. And, the CaCO 3 content data express the following cycles: 202-year, 184-year, 169-year and 85-year, all at the 99% confidence level. These cycles are approximately coincident with the widely-reported solar-activity cycles. • This paper reports the periodicities of the hydroclimate variations reconstructed from a lacustrine sequence in the Central Plains of China and the sequence covers the first half of the Holocene. • The hydroclimate variations were primarily paced by changes in ITCZ position and also by alterations in ENSO-like phase. And, both (ITCZ and ENSO) were most likely regulated by solar activity. • The centennial-scale hydroclimate variations were approximately coincident with the widely-reported solar-activity cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to globally uneven distribution of forest resources and timely difference of supply and demand, forest products are difficult to achieve market equilibrium among neighboring countries. The global forest product trade not only alleviates the contradiction of supply and demand, but also ensures the sustainable development of the economic construction for each country. Previous literature analyzed the structure and evolution mechanism of forest product trade from different perspectives, but ignored the competitive relationships among forest product importers. Based on complex network theory, this paper selected global wood forest product trade data from 2004 to 2016. Then we constructed global unweighted and weighted wood-forest-product competitive network from import perspective, and three indicators (density, average path length, and clustering coefficient), core–periphery model and two indicators of competitive intensity were introduced to study the spatial competitive evolution of global wood forest product trade among countries. The results showed that there was wide competition in global wood forest product trade among continents, and the tightness of competitive relationships gradually decreased with time. Secondly, core countries and periphery countries were clearly identified in the competitive network, and China, Japan, the U.S., were the main core countries influencing the evolution of core–periphery structure. Finally, the U.S. played an important role in the global competition system. But with the increment of demand for Asian market, China and other Asian countries gradually became the center of wood-forest-product competition. The research tried to provide some references for importers to follow the laws of global wood forest product trade, and formulate the corresponding policy under constructing sustainable society and facing climate change. • The paper considered the competitive relationship of global wood forest product trade. • TThe paper constructed global unweighted and weighted wood-forest-product competitive network, and studied spatial competitive evolution of global wood forest product trade. • The U.S. played an important role in the global competition system, but China and other Asian countries gradually became the center of global wood-forest-product competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yiluo region in the middle Yellow River has been a core area of archaeological inquiry for understanding the origins of the first dynastic states in China. In order to investigate the social changes on a regional scale, a systematic full-coverage regional survey project was carried out from 1997 to 2018, covering an area of 1183 km2 in the Yiluo region. This paper analyzes the settlement patterns of 451 sites of the Neolithic and Bronze Ages (ca. 6000–200 cal. BC), providing the most comprehensive pictures yet, of the spatial and temporal relationships of settlement distribution during a nearly 6000-year time span. The paper demonstrates a developmental trajectory from a landscape dotted with scattered, small Neolithic villages to a highly centralized dynastic heartland in early Chinese civilization. The evolutionary pathways were not straightforward, but were characterized by episodic fluctuations in population density, and the rise and fall of complex societies. Holocene climatic fluctuations may have played significant roles affecting human activities, but it is the human responses to external challenges in various ways that ultimately determined the trajectories of social evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to evaluate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a Chinese highway tunnel in the life cycle. Life cycle assessment (LCA) method is adopted in the paper. Based on rock mass classification and pavement categories, five different functional units have been proposed for the first time. The system boundaries, processes and assumptions are defined. The study results indicate: 1) the GHG emissions of a double-track four-lane Chinese highway tunnel in 100 years can be up to 375.5 thousand tons of CO 2 eq. Cement and electricity contribute to more than 80% of the total emissions in all functional units. 2) The construction stage, operation stage and maintenance stage emit 30.89%, 56.12% and 12.99% of the total GHG respectively. During the construction stage, casting and lining, rock support and road work are the top three GHG emission processes. 3) Rock conditions are discovered to be an important factor of affecting GHG emissions in tunnels. The GHG emissions of the 1-m Chinese highway tunnel are between 82 t to 113 t CO 2 eq. With the increase of rock mass grades, GHG emissions rapidly rise if the pavement design stays the same. The emission differences among the functional units are mainly from materials. 4) Asphalt pavements tend to generate more GHG emissions than concrete pavement due to the more frequent replacements of asphalt pavements. This paper investigates the influences of rock conditions and pavement types on the GHG emissions of Chinese tunnels in the life cycle, which can provide a scientific reference for policy making of the Chinese government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Cities do play significant roles in tackling global environmental changes. Decoupling economic growth from environmental pressures is critical for global sustainable development, however, few studies pay attention to the decoupling analysis at city level. This paper conducts a comparative study of the decoupling performance of economic output from CO 2 emissions between Beijing and Shanghai, the top two cities in China. In this paper, the decoupling trends and the decoupling effects are explored from a sectoral perspective, by combining the Tapio decoupling elasticity and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model. The results show that Beijing and Shanghai both experienced weak decoupling in construction, expansive negative decoupling in transport, expansive coupling in trade, and weak decoupling in others over the period 2000–2015. Moreover, agriculture appeared strong decoupling in Beijing, and recessive decoupling in Shanghai; industry showed strong decoupling in Beijing, and weak decoupling in Shanghai. The decoupling effects showed different magnitudes and patterns in industrial sectors between Beijing and Shanghai. Overall, per-capita GDP and population growth inhibited the decoupling, while energy intensity, industrial share, energy mix accelerated the decoupling process. Highlights • The decoupling of sectoral economic output from carbon emissions in Beijing and Shanghai are investigated. • Beijing's industry enjoyed better decoupling performance than Shanghai's industry. • Transport should be put more emphasis in further decoupling efforts. • Energy intensity is crucial effect accelerating the decoupling process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Global climate change is a significant environmental problem. A major trigger of climate change is the excess carbon emissions. Based on 44 scenarios in the second generation of new dry cement technology systems, this paper establishes IPSO-BP model to forecast the carbon emissions peak of China's cement industry for 2016–2050 years. The results indicate that China's cement industry only implements capacity reduction plans and the second generation of new dry cement technology systems, so that carbon emissions can reach the peak before 2030. It is up to 19 years ahead of the carbon emissions peak of the basic scenario and the carbon emissions peak is reduced by 38 Mt. Moreover, this paper analyzes the technical combination of the earliest carbon emissions and the lowest carbon emissions. As for the earliest carbon emissions technical combination, China's cement industry carbon emissions will peak at 789.95 Mt in 2021. According to the lowest carbon emissions technical combination, China's cement industry carbon emissions will peak at 742.37 Mt in 2025. Accordingly, the conclusions will be helpful for making carbon emissions reduction policies for China's cement industry. Highlights • Carbon emission levels were reviewed from industrial output and technologies. • The prediction model of carbon emissions was built with improved PSO and BPNN model. • The scenarios were set to analyze carbon emission peak in China's cement industry. • Importance of technique and capacity reduction in China's cement industry is defined. • The best carbon emission peak plan for China's cement industry is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern edge of the East Asian monsoon region is also a transition zone of temperate continental and monsoon climate, which is a sensitive zone of global climate and ecological environment change. It is an urgent problem to find out the long-term climate change rules of this region. Using 101 tree core samples obtained from 54 trees, a 343-year tree-ring width chronology of the Platycladus orientalis (L.) Franco (1673–2016) in the Wula Mountains, Inner Mongolia, China was established. The analysis shows that the radial growth of P. orientalis is closely related to hydrothermal conditions, the average minimum temperature and relative humidity are the main factors that determine the growth of P. orientalis. Based on the strong correlation between the tree-ring indices and the annual average minimum temperature (r = −0.870, p < 0.001), we reconstructed an average annual minimum temperature series from 1673 to 2016 using a linear regression equation, and the reconstructed equation can explain 75.724% of the variance, respectively. According to the data from the past 343 years, the changes in the annual average minimum temperature series had the cycles of 58.6-, 7.7-, 3.4-, 3.1-, 2.2-, and 2.1-years; the series showed three warm periods (1824–1830, 1909–1922, and 1986–2011) and 4 cold periods (1703–1712, 1731–1738, 1754–1763, and 1937–1951). The low temperature periods recorded in the reconstructed series for the 17th and 18th centuries are consistent with the Little Ice Age that occurred in the northern hemisphere, and the heating rate significantly increased at the end of the 20th century. In addition, the cold and warm periods recorded by the reconstruction result is basically consistent with the extreme climate events recorded in the historical documents of the region and the reconstruction results in other regions. In this paper, the world's first chronology of P. orientalis tree ring width was established. A historical sequence of annual average minimum temperature of 343 years was reconstructed in a typical region of the East Asian monsoon climate. It fills in the blank of reconstruction sequence and variation characteristics of mean minimum temperature in the northern edge of East Asian monsoon and transition zone of temperate continental and monsoon climate in recent four centuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The extent of flooding in China is greater than in any other country. • Nearly 66% of China's landmass is submerged by flooding. • Financial toll of flooding accounts for approximately 1.42% of the annual GDP. • Various forms of climatic change contribute to flooding. The extent of flooding in China is more significant than in any other country. Our research reveals that approximately 66 % of China's landmass is submerged by flooding, affecting about 50 % of the population. Furthermore, the financial toll of flooding now accounts for approximately 1.42 % of the annual gross domestic product (GDP), which is almost 40 times higher than the corresponding figure for the United States. We have observed that Zhengzhou city in Henan province, which faced a devastating flood in 2021, received a significant amount of rainfall, specifically a total of 552.5 mm within a 24-hour period. The floods in Henan province in 2021 caused considerable damage, including impacting nearly 15 million people, resulting in almost 400 deaths, damaging over 10,000 square kilometers of agricultural land, causing almost $19 billion in economic losses, and leading to the collapse of over 35,000 households and damage to various properties. In a similar manner, the significant flooding that occurred in southern China in 2020 impacted approximately 7.1 million individuals across eight provinces and resulted in 54 fatalities, the collapse of 6,700 houses, and incurred a direct economic loss of US$3.33 billion. We found that rainstorms have significantly increased to 10 % in the last 60 years in China. In this paper, we delved into exploring the existing published articles, reports, and government and authoritative legal texts to analyze the causes and impacts of flooding in China's flood-prone regions and potential mitigation strategies to reduce the repercussions of distressing flood events. We believe this study will help policymakers by providing new insights while formulating policy to reduce the loss caused by high-level flooding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Carnian Pluvial Event (CPE) induced an intense carbon-cycle disturbance and biological crisis at a global scale. The eruption of the Wrangellia Large Igneous Province (W-LIP) is considered a possible triggering mechanism; however, this cannot fully explain the significant differences in environmental perturbations across different regions. In this paper, we present detailed records of petrography, mercury geochemistry, carbon and sulfur isotopes, trace elements, and provenance data for the Triassic lacustrine facies of the Ordos Basin in the North China Plate, which provide insights into the important effects of volcanic activities, other than the W-LIP, on palaeoenvironment during the CPE interval. Massive emissions of SO 2 , CO 2 , and pyroclastic deposits resulting from these volcanic activities triggered four humid episodes, each characterized by lake-level rise, negative δ13C org excursion, a transition from mudstones to organic-rich shales facies, as well as algal bloom within a time span of 180 kyrs. The establishment of an age framework in the Ordos Basin enables comparative analyses of environmental evolution during the Carnian age across the North China Plate, the western Tethys domain, and the South China Plate. During the period of global climate perturbation driven by the W-LIP eruption, we conclude that short-term localized volcanic activities may have further induced high frequentcy environmental perturbations, which influenced biological shifts and increase organic carbon burial. These short-term volcanic activities with different occurrence times and frequencies complicate local-scale palaeoenvironmental evolutions, which may be an important reason contributing to significant differences in environmental perturbations during the CPE interval across different regions of the globe. • Four humid episodes and sedimentary changes occurred within 0.18Ma in the Ordos Basin during Carnian age. • Environmental changes in the Ordos Basin was related to the local volcanisms in its nearby Qinling orogenic belts. • Short-term local volcanisms can complicate the environmental evolutions in different parts of globe during the CPE interval. • Local volcanic processes may cause inconsistent environment perturbation in different parts of globe during the CPE interval. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southwestern China, a biodiversity hotspot, underwent dramatic climate change following the Last Glacial Maximum and intensive human activity also exerted a major impact since the late Holocene. In this paper, we report a pollen record from Yilong Lake in Yunnan Province, southwestern China, to understand vegetation response to long-term climatic variation and human activities at a regional-level over the last 27,000 years. Findings show that temperate and coniferous taxa were dominant before 18 cal kyr BP reflecting the glacial climate. Between 18 and 14 cal kyr BP, thermophilic taxa increased in response to global deglaciation. A notable shift from deciduous to evergreen forests occurred at approximately 14 cal kyr BP, after which pollen concentration increased but pollen diversity decreased. Pollen assemblages indicated dense forests, primarily composed of evergreen oaks developed under warm and strong summer monsoon conditions from 13 to 8 cal kyr BP. High rates of vegetation change occurred during the middle Holocene before vegetation diversity gradually increased during the Holocene Thermal Optimum, with high variability of precipitation in the Yilong Lake region. Anthropogenic forcing progressively became the main factor affecting vegetation composition and vegetation change rates over the past three millennia. • We reported a pollen record from Yilong Lake in Yunnan province, China. • Cold-tolerant taxa dominated before 18 cal kaBP after which thermal-like taxa increased. • Evergreen forests replaced deciduous forests around 14 cal kaBP. • Vegetation change rates peaked in mid-Holocene with mega-thermal but frequent droughts. • Departure of vegetation and potential climax occurred in late-Holocene due to human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Forecasting-test framework for long-term power system planning. • Coal-fired generators can be completely withdrawn from the power system by 2060. • China's power capacity mix will transition to wind and solar generators dominated. • Biomass and gas-fired generators will take on the role of reserved generators. • The timing of achieving China's zero-coal power system may be advanced or delayed. Facing the challenges of climate deterioration, environmental pollution, and energy shortages, China has put forward the goals of "carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality", and the electricity sector will be the key area and the main direction of carbon emissions reduction. To prospect China's power system and explore the potential for establishing China's zero-coal power system in the future, this paper proposes a forecasting-test framework for long-term power system planning. We predict, evaluate, and analyze China's power system from 2025 to 2060 using the proposed forecasting-test framework. During this process, the power capacity mix and the electricity generation mix of China's power system will gradually transition from coal-fired generators dominated to wind and solar generators dominated. Moreover, the roles of different generators and energy storages are illustrated through the seasonal comparison and sensitivity analysis of the installed capacity of generators. The results indicate that coal-fired generators can be completely withdrawn from the power system, confirming the feasibility and possibility of achieving China's zero-coal power system by 2060. Although the timing may be advanced or delayed in different scenarios, achieving China's zero-coal power system will require exercising nationwide planning and making joint efforts of various sectors from now on. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the impact of political uncertainty on sustainable urban development by examining carbon emission trading systems (ETS) in four major markets in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Hubei) from 2014 to 2022. As an alternative to carbon taxes, carbon ETS markets have become increasingly popular due to their success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, their effectiveness is often hindered by political instability and uncertainty. Utilising logistic regression and AR(1)-GARCH estimations, we identify a negative relationship between political uncertainty and carbon trading volume. Our study also reveals significant variations in the responses of these markets to political uncertainty. The paper contributes to the understanding of how ETS markets operate in a complex and constantly changing political environment. We suggest that policymakers need to consider the impact of political uncertainty on carbon trading when designing and implementing urban policies that promote sustainable development. Additionally, our research contributes to the development of urban policies that can be effectively implemented in both developed and developing regions. • Local government official turnovers are used as the measurement of political uncertainty. • Daily transaction data from four carbon ETS markets (Beijing, Shanghai, Hubei and Guangdong) in China • Considered the probability and proportion of zero transaction day • Logistic regression and AR(1)-GARCH estimations • A negative relationship between political uncertainty and carbon transaction volume [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper matched the data for all non-financial listed firms in China from 1990 to 2017 with weather data and used temperature and precipitation to represent climate change. Using daily temperature and daily precipitation data, we constructed temperature bins and precipitation bins. This study presents a potential first empirical analysis that applies the risk perception theory to comprehensively examine the impacts of daily temperature and daily precipitation on firms' debt financing costs. Compared to a day with a suitable temperature, a day with temperatures above 30 °C increases firms' debt financing costs by 0.2411%. Compared to a sunny day, a day with torrential rain increases firms' financing costs by 0.2697%. Approximately $122.13 million and $20.49 million in extra costs were incurred across all firms in 2017. We conducted a series of heterogeneity tests. We found that the negative impacts of climate change on debt financing costs are greater for firms that investor considers more vulnerable. Finally, we found two possible mechanisms. First, from the firm's subjective initiative perspective, firms that respond proactively during seasons of high temperatures and heavy rains can reduce the negative impacts. Second, adverse weather caused by climate change may also increase firms' debt financing costs by blocking travel. These results enrich the literature on firms' debt financing costs and contribute to the understanding of climate change's impact on firms. [Display omitted] • An extra high-temperature day increases firms' debt financing cost by 0.2411%. • An extra heavy-rain day increases firms' debt financing costs by 0.2697%. • The negative impacts will be greater for those firms that investor considers more vulnerable. • Firms' response proactively can reduce the negative impacts. • Climate change also may increase firms' debt financing costs by blocking travel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • We develop a framework to estimate future Flood Regulation Service (FRS) dynamics. • The framework considers the joint impacts of both climate change and urbanization. • Future FRS supply–demand imbalance will continue to intensify. • Future impacts of climate change in Baiyangdian Lake Basin cannot be ignored. • Cities should actively adapt to climate change to reduce flood risks in the future. Estimating the supply–demand relationship's future dynamics and trend of Flood Regulation Service (FRS) is important for preventing flood risks and choose an appropriate future development path. Less attention has been given to assessing the future trends in this relationship under the joint influence of climate change and urbanization. This paper aims to quantify future trends in the FRS supply–demand relationship under the joint impacts of climate change and urbanization. To this end, we took the Baiyangdian Lake Basin as an example and developed a "Climate Change-Urbanization-FRS supply and demand" framework by combining future climate scenarios from the ScenarioMIP (Scenario Model Intercomparison Project) dataset and socioeconomic data from the SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) to estimate the FRS supply and demand dynamics during the period from 2020 to 2050. The results show that the framework has a reasonable ability to estimate the FRS supply–demand relationship. The correlation coefficients between estimated supply–demand ratios and the historical values exceeded 0.9. The average FRS supply–demand ratio among the four scenarios shows a significantly downward trend between 2020 and 2050. The FRS is expected to decrease by 0.159 (36.6 %), resulting in the imbalanced area increasing from 38.3 km2 (4.1 % of the whole basin) to 11049.7 km2 (36.2 %). We believe that although urbanization is the dominant factor contributing to the intensified imbalance trend (with a contribution of 71.2 %), influences from climate change also cannot be ignored (with a contribution of 28.8 %). Therefore, adaptation actions to climate change should be actively taken to reduce urban flood risks in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and human migration are the key focus of scientific attention in developing countries to achieve sustainable development. Exploring the interaction between the two is informative about understanding the law of human migration, and grasping the trend of climate change, to achieve environmentally sustainable development. In recent years, a large number of studies and discussions about "climate migration", and "environmental refugees" were launched. However, most researchers focus on the relationship between climate change and human migration, and few researchers have noticed and discussed the impact of human migration on climate change. There is still a lack of interpretation of the relationship between the two. In order to make up for the shortcomings of existing studies, this paper takes Ningxia immigrants of China as an example, uses PEST model analysis, considers the four dimensions of Political, Economic, Social, and Technological as judgment criteria, and explains the impact of the bidirectional force between climate change and human migration on the external environment. Further explore how climate change impacts human migration through spatial analysis, and mapping using ENVI and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tool. The findings of this are; (i) climate change and human migration interact with each other but do not have a direct effect, and the external environment is an important intermediate factor, (ii) climate change does not directly affect human migration, but forms a push for it through its impact on the external environment of the origin place, and at the same time, combined with the pull effect of the place of destination, and helps in smoothing this process, (iii) human migration does not directly affect climate change, but only creates operational space for capital and technology investment, and (iv) climate change and human migration interact through intermediate factors in the external environment, hence the need to strengthen cross-sectoral cooperation in different regions is of prime concern to promote environmentally sustainable social development. • Climate change and human migration become the key focus of scientific attention. • The concept of 'migration as adaptation' needs revisiting. • PEST model used to explain the impact of bidirectional force on external environment. • Migration, Climate change, and urban landscape are interrelated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial vegetation plays pivotal roles on land-atmosphere interactions, and even global climate change. However, limited attempts have been taken to elucidate the responses of vegetation activity to weather-related drivers (e.g., droughts, floods). This is especially in China with vast area and changeable meteorological conditions. In this paper, the performance of two satellite-based indices, namely vegetation condition index (VCI) and vegetation health index (VHI) were analyzed to detect the vegetation responses to weather-related variations. The dynamics of vegetation activity in China were further examined for the period 1982–2013. We found widely-distributed vegetation stresses in the entire country for a long period (about an average of two months per year) from the VCI and the VHI. In addition, both the two indices indicated increasing vegetation activities over most parts of China during 1982–2013. However, there is no consensus between the two indices at spatial pattern and regional totals. This discrepancy can be due to the negative-correlation assumption of the VHI between the VCI and bright temperature. However, we found that the relationship between the VCI and temperature could be changeable in different regions, especially in China with complex topography, diverse climate conditions and different vegetation types. The findings of this paper highlight the necessity to account for dominant controls on vegetation growth when using the VCI and the VHI to analyze vegetation activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of climate change, the haze days in China have increased significantly, which seriously hinders the sustainable development of society and arouses wide attention from the public. However, the researches on the effect of air pollution on the stock yield of heavy pollution enterprise in key control cities are quite limited, This paper collects the Air Quality Index (AQI) from key control cities above prefecture level in China as well as the stock yield data of these cities’ heavy pollution enterprises in December from 2014 to 2016 and through multi-discontinuities regression model, testes the effect of air pollution on the stock yield of heavy pollution enterprise. The results show that: (1) Heavy air pollution (AQI = 300) has negative influence on the stock yield. (2) There exists time effect of air pollution on stock yield. Since the year 2014, heavy air pollution has exerted significantly negative influence on the stock yield in that 2013 may be the “first year” when the Chinese society began to take air pollution seriously. This paper gives a brief discussion on the cause of it and suggests that severe air pollution should be strictly controlled. Only by facing air pollution seriously, can we eliminate air pollution with collective wisdom and concerted efforts and achieve the sustainable development of city. Being the first study to look into the effect of air pollution on stock yield in key control cities in China, this paper provides empirical reference for government supervision departments, stock investors as well as enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We calculated carbon sequestration/emissions in agroecosystems in Hebei, China. • We measured agricultural production efficiency considering an undesirable output. • The annual average low-carbon agriculture production efficiency increased by 3.03%. • There were disparities of efficiency among cities owing to increased carbon emission. • Climate change had complex effects on low-carbon agricultural production. With the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere, global greenhouse effects have intensified, thereby contributing to climate change. Agriculture contributes to climate change by increasing GHG emissions, and climate change in turn affects agricultural production. In this paper, we calculated carbon emissions and sequestration of agriculture in the 142 counties of Hebei Province, China, and analyzed their spatiotemporal distributions during 2000–2010. Considering net carbon emissions as an undesirable output, we then measured low-carbon agricultural production efficiency using a stochastic directional distance function. We further explored the impacts of climate change on low-carbon agricultural production. We found that carbon emissions in agriculture increased by 15.85% (650 million tons) during 2000–2010, while carbon sequestration in agroecosystems increased by 33.82% (13.8 million tons). The annual average low-carbon agricultural production efficiency increased by 3.03%. There were distinct disparities of efficiency among cities, with the highest efficiency in Chengde and Shijiazhuang. The efficiency in southeastern areas was lower than that in the northwest, owing to the increased carbon emissions. Temperature and precipitation had a positive effect on efficiency in Hebei, whereas extreme weather events caused lower efficiency. The results provide valuable references for developing sustainable, climate-resilient and adaptive agriculture under changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The industrial sector has significantly contributed to global climate change and urban air pollution while driving economic development. This paper takes the synergistic CO2 and SO2 emission reduction in China's industrial sector as an entry point quantifies the synergistic CO2 and SO2 emission reduction effect using the Kaya extension model and analyzes the synergistic emission reduction expansion mechanism in depth. It is found that the synergistic effect of CO2 and SO2 in the industrial sector is prevalent in most provinces in China. Every 10,000 tons of CO2 emission reduction leads to 1600 tons of SO2 emission reduction. Regional heterogeneity also clarifies that there are differences in synergistic emission reduction among different provinces, with most regions having a significant positive effect of synergistic emission reduction, while a small number of regions have an inverse effect, and direct SO2 reduction measures should be considered separately. The interaction effect analysis found that energy efficiency improvement in the industrial sector is the critical path to synergistic effect enhancement. At the same time, R&D expenditure and fixed asset investment have a weak effect on synergistic emission reduction. The interaction of the three factors can synergize the emission reduction effect by more than twice. The study's findings can be used as a reference for China's industrial sector to achieve the goal of reducing pollution and carbon emissions and for the practice of regional synergistic emission reduction, as well as for the formulation of international synergistic emission reduction policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems has been the concern of governments. Integrated energy system (IES) is affected by climate change during his operation, in order to study the impact of climate change on IES and achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems, this paper proposes an integrated machine learning(IML) to forecast the long-term load, then investigates IES costs and carbon emissions in relation to climate, followed by the establishment of carbon peak energy system(CPES) and carbon neutral energy system(CNES), finally the honey badger algorithm is used to optimize the configuration of CPES and CNES. The results show that: IML can accurately make load forecasts. Under climate change, changes in load reduce the cost and carbon emissions of IES, and changes in equipment efficiency increase the cost and carbon emissions of IES. When both are considered, the cost and carbon emissions of IES increase by 1.18% and 0.92% per decade respectively. The costs of CPES and CNES increase by 0.93% and 1% respectively for every 10 years earlier than the year of achievement. To meet China's "double carbon" goal, CPES and CNES need to increase their costs by 1.97% and 2% respectively. • Integrated machine learning proposed for long-term load forecasting. • Studied the impact of system equipment efficiency and load with climate change. • Proposing carbon peaking energy system to achieve the carbon peak goal. • Proposed carbon-neutral energy system to achieve carbon neutrality goal. • The increased costs of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutral were studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Average start of the photosynthetic period in China was on the 123rd day of the year. • The average start of the photosynthetic period advances at a rate of 4.3 d (10 a)−1. • 64% of the region is temperature controlled, others are precipitation controlled. • Importance of temperature and precipitation determined by pre-season precipitation. • Climate change increases NPP by advancing the start of the photosynthetic period. In the context of global warming, the advancement of spring phenology in northern and temperate regions due to increased temperatures has been widely reported. Early and delayed start of the photosynthetic period (SOP) directly affects the vegetation net primary productivity (NPP). However, the interrelationship between climate change, the SOP, and the NPP is unclear. In this paper, we use the dynamics of decadal daily solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data to calculate the response of Chinese vegetation photosynthetic phenology to climate change and its impact on the NPP over the last 20 years. The results found that over the last 20 years, the average SOP in China was on the 123rd day of the year, and the SOP has advanced at an average rate of 4.3 d (10 a)−1, with a faster trend of SOP advancement in highland and high-altitude areas. 64% of SOP in China is controlled by temperature; 36% of the SOP in China is controlled by precipitation, and the relative importance of temperature and precipitation was reversed as the precipitation gradient decreased, with SOP dominated by temperature when pre-season precipitation ≧300 mm, and SOP dominated by precipitation when pre-season precipitation ≦300 mm. Finally, we find that climate change indirectly increases vegetation NPP by advancing SOP. Our study emphasizes the importance of precipitation on phenology. It provides a scientific basis for understanding and predicting the response of spring photosynthetic phenology to climate change and the contribution of spring phenology to carbon estimation in terrestrial ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A transition from cereal-based agriculture to pastoralism in North China occurred around 3600 cal yr B.P., and corresponded to Northern Hemisphere cooling and the onset of an arid climate over North China. In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms for the ~3600 cal yr B.P. climate transition that may have triggered this change in Chinese civilization based on a compilation of 33 high-resolution paleoclimate records spanning the 4000–3000 cal yr B.P. interval. Results show that North and South China experienced a meridional dipole pattern of the climate change. From 4000 to 3600 cal yr B.P., the region north of 30°N was wet and the region south of 30°N was dry, then from 3600 to 3000 cal yr B.P., the pattern reversed with a drier north and a wetter south. We found that this climate transition was related to the onset of a more El Niño-like state in the tropical Pacific Ocean after ~3600 cal yr B.P., which resulted in more precipitation in South China but less precipitation in North China. Climate in the marginal monsoon areas of North China deteriorated, becoming more cold and arid, and pastoralism replaced cereal agriculture as the dominant mode of subsistence. Our study highlights the important role of the paleo-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (paleo-ENSO) for the evolution of civilization in China. • North China transitioned to pastoralism around 3600 cal yr B.P. • A shift in East Asia's dipole climate pattern was observed at the same period. • This climate change was influenced by the paleo-ENSO. • The paleo-ENSO significantly impacted the progression of Chinese civilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Tree ring is an ideal indicator of annual total grain production parameters. • Tree growth synchronized with grain production, and concurrent response to climate. • Reconstruction of total grain productivity based on dendrochronology. • To explore the relationship between total grain sown area and climate change. Climate change affects the growth of regional vegetation; both trees and grain crops often change concurrently, such that the annual radial growth of trees shows consistent inter-annual variations with the total grain crop productivity. However, it remains unclear whether they exhibit concurrent responses to climate factors, and that there lacks of the study on long-term high-resolution variations of grain crops productivity. This paper employs a Pinus massoniana tree-ring series from the Tongbai Mountains to analyze the correlations between tree-ring chronology, local climate data and grain productivity indicators (i.e., total sown grain areas (TSA), total grain outputs (TGO), and average grain yield per hectare (YPH)) of Henan Province in central China. The results indicate that temperature in March and August was the main limiting factor on tree growth, and the best concurrent relationship with tree growth was TSA, which has a correlation of 0.747 (p < 0.001) during 1959–2020. Therefore, a 124-year TSA series in Henan Province was reconstructed using tree-ring data from the Tongbai Mountains, which reveals there were two distinct low periods of total grain sown area in the 1920 s-1930 s and 1980 s-2000 s. There are significant cycles of about 2.57a (p < 0.01), 2.89a (p < 0.05), and 10.95a (p < 0.1), indicating that vegetation growth might be affected by large-scale climate forcing, such as ENSO (2-7a cycle) and sunspot activity (11a cycle). Overall, this study outlines a new approach to understand long-term changes in grain production, which is conducive to grain management and socioeconomic sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 4.2 ka event was a period of global drought and climate cooling linked to the widespread disruption of Neolithic culture. However, the detailed climatic changes during this period are not completely understood. In this paper, we report a high-resolution pollen record for the Dayanghu wetland in the Zhejiang region of southeastern China, which we use to infer mean annual precipitation (MAP) fluctuations during the period spanning 4600–4000 calendar years before present (cal. yr BP). There was a long-term trend of decreasing MAP during this interval, consistent with weakening of the East Asian Summer Monsoon since the mid-Holocene. This trend was punctuated by episodes of relatively high MAP at 4350–4320, ca. 4260, and 4220–4200 cal. yr BP, and extreme droughts at 4200 and 4150 cal. yr BP. We propose that solar activity promoted El Niño events and contributed to dramatic MAP fluctuations in the Dayanghu wetland. La Niña events and negative-phase intervals of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation may have been responsible for the extreme drought at 4200–4150 cal. yr BP. In summary, we propose a close relationship between MAP and solar forcing, with short-term enhanced solar activity increasing the intensity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and contributing to increasing decadal variability in the inner tropical Pacific, which ultimately leads to increased precipitation variability in southeast China. The results improve our understanding of the detailed climatic features of the 4.2 ka event. • High-resolution pollen record for ca. 4.2 ka for the Zhejiang region, China. • Pollen-based mean annual precipitation was quantitatively reconstructed. • Long-term droughts tended to occur during 4600–4000 cal. yr BP. • La Niña-dominated ENSO contributed to a catastrophic drought at 4200–4150 cal. yr BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A clearly defined geochronology and stratigraphic interpretation will enhance our understanding of the evolution of paleo water depth and transitional facies, contributing to hydrocarbon exploration. Transitional deposition is extensively observed in the upper Paleozoic of the Ordos Basin. Nevertheless, the correlation between the variations of paleo water depth and global sea-level changes remains uncertain. In this study, we employed gamma-ray logging (GR) data to analyze the cyclostratigraphy of the upper Paleozoic Shanxi Formation in the Ordos Basin. We characterized the elemental geochemistry of the Shanxi Formation using X-ray fluorescence. We reconstructed changes in Paleo Water Depth in the Ordos Basin during the upper Paleozoic by employing sedimentary noise modeling of the tuned GR logging data. Time series analysis showed evidence of the existence of 405 kyr long eccentricity, 125 kyr short eccentricity, and 35.5 kyr obliquity in sedimentary records, which was supported by a sediment accumulation rate model. Using the tuned GR data, we constructed a ∼3.07 Myr astronomical time scale in the Shanxi Formation of the sampling well. Moreover, we used the volcanic ash age (298.18 ± 0.32) Ma at the boundary of the Shanxi Formation and Taiyuan Formation as the anchor point to provide an absolute astronomical time scale from 295.11 Ma to 298.18 Ma for the study area. The variation of Paleo Water Depth in the upper Paleozoic transitional facies was confirmed by both the sedimentary noise model and the X-ray fluorescence (XRF) data, thus supporting each other. Additionally, we discovered a long-period obliquity of approximately 1.2 million years in this model, which is consistent with the global sea-level fluctuations observed during the same period. These results reveal a novel approach for evaluating the Paleo Water Depth variations in transitional facies. Furthermore, our study offers a detailed explanation of the relationship between the evolution of the sedimentary environment and the climate change resulting from astronomical orbit during the glacial period. • Establishing an astronomical time scale for the Shanxi Formation using the Milankovitch cycle. • Reconstructing paleo water depth using sedimentary noise models. • Using XRF data to restore ancient environments. • The paper explores the climate response to the sedimentary features over long-term cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The allowance mechanism is one of the core and sensitive aspects in the design of a carbon emissions trading scheme and affects the compliance cost for each entity covered under the scheme. By examining China’s allowance mechanism from two aspects-allowance allocation and allowance distribution, this paper compares China’s carbon trading pilots with the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and California Cap-and-Trade Program. The comparison identifies the unique features in allowance mechanism and particular issues that affect the efficiency of the pilots. The paper also recommends courses of action to strengthen China’s existing pilots and to build valuable experiences for the establishment of the national cap-and-trade system in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate-sensitive nonlinear mixed-effects height-diameter model was developed for 14 tree species in mixed forests. • The inclusion of climate and species diversity improved the H-D model. • The impact of environmental gradients on tree height growth was simulated. • The sensitivity of multiple species in mixed forest to environmental gradient changes varies with species. Models based on height-diameter (H-D) are helpful for estimating forest biomass and carbon storage on a large scale. Climate change has an impact on allometric height-diameter growth. H-D models explaining climatic effects are still inadequate due to the complexity of mixed forests. This paper developed climate-sensitive mixed-effects models for 14 tree species based on 316 natural mixed forest plots in Northeastern China and compared the response of tree height growth to environmental gradients for multiple species. The results showed that the species heterogeneity leads to the differences in scaling exponents in varying degrees. The analysis revealed that incorporating mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), dominant tree height (HT), basal area of the larger trees (BAL), and Shannon diversity index significantly enhanced the predictive ability of the model. By exploring the tree height change patterns of each tree species under different gradients of environmental factors, we found that increases in temperature, precipitation, site quality, and competition intensity positively affected height growth in mixed forests. In contrast, increases in species diversity inhibited height growth. The degree to which environmental factors regulate the H-D allometric growth of trees in mixed forests is related to species specificity. This paper provides theoretical support for tree height estimates of major tree species in mixed forests under global climate change by introducing environmental factors to improve the H-D model of 14 tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aeolian deposits in the coastal region of North China are important for reconstructing paleoclimate. In this paper, chronology, climatic proxies and chemical compositions of four loess sections were studied. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating results indicate that the coastal loess was accumulated during late Quaternary, with ages ranging from the penultimate glacial period to the latest Holocene. Both granulometric characteristics and geochemical properties indicate that the dust provenance of the coastal loess is partially different from that of the Chinese Loess Plateau, characterized by more proximal contributions. Except distal dust transported by northwesterly winter winds from the inland gobi and sand deserts, the coastal loess also contains proximal, local coarse particles, which were derived from the exposed shelf as well as neighboring hills. Multiple climatic proxies, including color, magnetic susceptibility and particle size parameters, correlate well with the marine SPECMAP δ18O record, indicating that climatic changes in the coastal region of North China during the late Quaternary was mainly controlled by variations of the East Asian monsoon, driven by changes in global ice volumes. • Luminescence dating of coastal loess in eastern North China. • Coastal loess contain both distal and proximal source materials. • Exposed shelf during glacial time serving as an important source for coastal loess. • Costal loess reflects orbital climatic fluctuations driven by East Asian monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oasification is a complex oasis expansion and ecological processes caused by climate changes and human activities under available water supply in arid and semiarid regions. The process can effectively improve soil productivity, vegetation cover, and biomass production in fighting against land degradation, such as desertification and soil erosion. However, the significance of oasification has not yet reached the general cognition compared to desertification, which is regarded as one of the most severe global eco-environmental issues. This paper identifies desertification and oasification processes and their perspectives in cognition. The implication of oasification in combating desertification and controlling land degradation is emphasized by the justification between desertification and oasification processes. As opposite process of desertification, the oasification is an unable evasive process that can provide positive environmental effects in the control of desertification, ecological restoration, and land rehabilitation. According to the interaction of climatic variations and human activities, the oasification processes is classified into six main forms: natural oasis evolution process, engineering forest construction, conversion of natural landforms into farmlands, urban encroachment, constructed environments, and coupled ecosystems. These processes gradually modify the productive capacity of soils, increase vegetation cover for restoring degraded lands, and improve the living environment for human settlement and sustainability of an oasis ecosystem. Moreover, an overview of oasification research is detailed, and Northwest China as an example is used to illustrate the progress of the oasification research in recent decades. Currently, the oasification process and its mechanistic research still remain less concern in the arid and semiarid regions. A new science framework of the oasification research is proposed to effectively deal with ecological and environmental issues in the arid and semiarid regions. • Desertification and oasification and their perspectives are identified. • Implication of oasification is emphasized in comparison with desertification. • Oasification processes are classified into six main forms. • Overview of oasification research is detailed and illustrated in Northwest China. • A new science framework of the oasification research is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]