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In this paper we present a novel methodology, referenced as ORFEO (Ordinal classifier and Regressor Fusion for Estimating an Ordinal categorical target), to enhance the performance in ordinal classification problems for which the latent variable is observable. ORFEO is an artificial neural network model incorporating two outputs, one for ordinal classification, using the cumulative link model, and one for regression, using a linear model. Both outputs are simultaneously optimised considering a loss function that linearly combines both classification and regression losses. The main motivation behind developing the proposed approach is to enhance the performance of a standard ordinal classifier. This improvement is facilitated by considering the regression output, which allows the model to differentiate between patterns within the same category. The ORFEO model is applied to two problems in the field of marine and ocean engineering: short-term prediction of both significant wave height and flux of energy. Both problems are addressed considering four different coastal zones of the United States of America, using 13 datasets formed by buoys measurements and reanalysis data. A comprehensive comparison against 20 methodologies, including regression and nominal/ordinal classification approaches is performed, by using diverse nominal and ordinal performance metrics. Ranks achieved indicate that ORFEO outperforms all the compared methodologies in terms of all the performance measures, demonstrating the efficacy and robustness of the proposal. Finally, a statistical analysis is conducted, concluding that there are statistically significant differences across ordinal and nominal performance metrics in favour of the proposed ORFEO model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land cover classification provides valuable information for prioritizing management and conservation operations across large landscapes. Current regional scale land cover geospatial products within the United States have a spatial resolution that is too coarse to provide the necessary information for operations at the local and project scales. This paper describes a methodology that uses recent advances in spatial analysis software to create a land cover classification over a large region in the southeastern United States at a fine (1 m) spatial resolution. This methodology used image texture metrics and principle components derived from National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) aerial photographic imagery, visually classified locations and a softmax neural network model. The model efficiently produced classification surfaces at 1mresolution across roughly 11.6 million hectares (28.8 million acres) with less than 10% average error in modeled probability. The classification surfaces consist of probability estimates of 13 visually distinct classes for each 1 m cell across the study area. This methodology and the tools used in this study constitute a highly flexible fine resolution land cover classification that can be applied across large extents using standard computer hardware, common and open source software and publicly available imagery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Correct estimation of suspended sediment concentration carried by a river is very important for many water resources projects. The application of linear genetic programming (LGP), which is an extension to genetic programming (GP) technique, for suspended sediment concentration estimation is proposed in this paper. The LGP is compared with those of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy, neural networks and rating curve models. The daily streamflow and suspended sediment concentration data from two stations, Rio Valenciano Station and Quebrada Blanca Station, operated by the US Geological Survey (USGS) are used as case studies. The root mean square errors (RMSE) and determination coefficient (R 2) statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of the models. Comparison of the results indicated that the LGP performs better than the neuro-fuzzy, neural networks and rating curve models. For the Rio Valenciano and Quebrada Blanca Stations, it is found that the LGP models with RMSE=44.4mg/l, R 2 =0.910 and RMSE=13.9mg/l, R 2 =0.952 in test period is superior in estimating daily suspended sediment concentrations than the best accurate neuro-fuzzy model with RMSE=52.0mg/l, R 2 =0.876 and RMSE=17.9mg/l, R 2 =0.929, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coal is the second-largest source for electricity generation in the United States. However, the burning of coal produces dangerous gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide and Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. One alternative to decrease these emissions is biomass co-firing. To establish biomass as a viable option, the optimization of the biomass supply chain (BSC) is essential. Although most of the research conducted has focused on optimization models, the purpose of this paper is to incorporate machine-learning (ML) algorithms into a stochastic Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model to select potential storage depot locations and improve the solution in two ways: by decreasing the total cost of the BSC and the computational burden. We consider the level of moisture and level of ash in the biomass from each parcel location, the average expected biomass yield, and the distance from each parcel to the closest power plant. The training labels (whether a potential depot location is beneficial or not) are obtained through the stochastic MILP model. Multiple ML algorithms are applied to a case study in the northeast area of the United States: Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Neural Network. After applying the hybrid methodology combining ML and optimization, it is found that the MLP outperforms the other algorithms in terms of selecting potential depots that decrease the total cost of the BSC and the computational burden of the stochastic MILP model. The LR and the DT also perform well in terms of decreasing total cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Predicting survival of recipients after liver transplantation is regarded as one of the most important challenges in contemporary medicine. Hence, improving on current prediction models is of great interest.Nowadays, there is a strong discussion in the medical field about machine learning (ML) and whether it has greater potential than traditional regression models when dealing with complex data. Criticism to ML is related to unsuitable performance measures and lack of interpretability which is important for clinicians.Methods: In this paper, ML techniques such as random forests and neural networks are applied to large data of 62294 patients from the United States with 97 predictors selected on clinical/statistical grounds, over more than 600, to predict survival from transplantation. Of particular interest is also the identification of potential risk factors. A comparison is performed between 3 different Cox models (with all variables, backward selection and LASSO) and 3 machine learning techniques: a random survival forest and 2 partial logistic artificial neural networks (PLANNs). For PLANNs, novel extensions to their original specification are tested. Emphasis is given on the advantages and pitfalls of each method and on the interpretability of the ML techniques.Results: Well-established predictive measures are employed from the survival field (C-index, Brier score and Integrated Brier Score) and the strongest prognostic factors are identified for each model. Clinical endpoint is overall graft-survival defined as the time between transplantation and the date of graft-failure or death. The random survival forest shows slightly better predictive performance than Cox models based on the C-index. Neural networks show better performance than both Cox models and random survival forest based on the Integrated Brier Score at 10 years.Conclusion: In this work, it is shown that machine learning techniques can be a useful tool for both prediction and interpretation in the survival context. From the ML techniques examined here, PLANN with 1 hidden layer predicts survival probabilities the most accurately, being as calibrated as the Cox model with all variables.Trial Registration: Retrospective data were provided by the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients under Data Use Agreement number 9477 for analysis of risk factors after liver transplantation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]