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The present study aimed at studying the recycling of shredded currency waste of The Egyptian Central Bank, ECB, in the form of good-quality products. The techniques used include soaking with chemicals, screening to separate the detached ink particles from the soaking step, pulping at high temperature, screening to separate large nylon pieces and small ink particles, flotation to separate large ink particles and small pieces of nylon and bleaching as the final step to increase the whiteness of the product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the juristic discussions about women’s access to their financial rights during late Ottoman Egypt. Taking fatwa collections as a source of social history, one can recognize that women sometimes gave up their financial entitlements to their male relatives voluntarily. This concession is thought to have occurred due to the influence of deeply ingrained social customs in some tribes. While various historical and anthropological studies have explored this social practice, this paper focuses instead on the Islamic law ruling concerning this phenomenon. I discuss in this paper how some ostensibly conservative ulama in nineteenth-century Egypt, in pursuit of upholding women’s financial rights against patriarchal oppression, recognized an important principle of social coercion. By considering fear of social stigma as a constraint on women’s free will and thus as a form of legal duress, those ulama enabled women to reclaim their rights when possible— likely following the death of their male relatives. This paper urges us to rethink the position of the ulama in nineteenth-century Egypt regarding women’s rights. Furthermore, it illuminates an overarching concept of coercion in Islamic law, which holds relevance to various modern debates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines Egypt's labor market transition dynamics post-Arab Spring based on the two most recent rounds of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey conducted in 2012 and 2018. In addition to providing disaggregated level analysis by examining labor market transitions by gender, education, and age groups, our paper provides a cross-country perspective by comparing Egypt's labor market transitions with Jordan's. Regression analyses focusing on transitions to and from the dominant absorbing labor market states in Egypt – public sector employment for both genders, non-participation for women, and the informal sector for men – show that having a post-secondary education is associated with a lower probability of remaining out of the labor force (OLF) for women who were already OLF at baseline, while being married at baseline is found to be a significant predictor for women to stay out of the labor force if they were already so. As for men, the better educated are found to be more likely to secure formal employment, be it in the public or in the private sector, and also more likely to keep their public formal jobs once they secure them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper delineates a distinctly post-1960s expression of hunger and desire for food in Cuban and Egyptian cultural production. Hunger has always been present in aesthetic renditions of everyday life in both locales. Following the early-1960s socialist expansion of the role of the state, a new expression of hunger for animal protein emerged that relied on vegetarian tropes and parodied official discourse. Expressions of this "new hunger" captured the contradictory state of being conditioned, through state food programs, to see the consumption of animal products as the epitome of a healthy diet that endows one with the status of being "developed" and "modern" while simultaneously not being afforded satisfactory access to those food items due to conditions beyond one's individual control. In such contexts, the average citizen is primarily vegetarian and not by choice, while those with access to power live the promised dream of carnivorous plenty. This article analyzes several political speeches, cartoons, jokes, and songs to map the rhetorical and aesthetic characteristics of such satiric expressions and demonstrate how they were informed by the growing gap between early revolutionary official promises of food for all and actual food shortages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to identify the extent to which neurodiverse individuals experience fair representation in public sector organizations in Egypt and the main factors that foster such representation. A systematic qualitative research method was used with data collected through semi-structured interviews with 36 street-level bureaucrats who have the title "general manager." The findings show the underrepresentation of neurodiverse individuals in the Egyptian public sector. Moreover, we consider the three main categories of barriers hindering the active participation of people with neurological conditions in the Egyptian public sector to be as follows: individual barriers (inability to create social dialogue, lower educational level), organizational barriers (neurotypical employees lack the socio-cultural readiness to accept neuro-atypical colleagues, traditional means of recruiting, lack of flexibility of jobs in public organizations) and national barriers (high unemployment rate among neurodiverse individuals in Western countries, discretionary power granted to public employees, slow adoption of the social approach to disability in the Egyptian context). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After a long decline, fertility in Tunisia, as in some Arab countries like Algeria and Egypt, recorded an unexpected increasing trend over the 2000 – 2018 period. To account for such demographic change, this paper re-examined the behavior of the main fertility decline factors tested by the previous empirical studies (such as education, income, mortality, and contraceptive use) to check whether they have changed in favor of an upward fertility evolution. Deepening the analysis, it introduced three new socio-economic factors that are likely to favor fertility increase: divorce, unemployment, and longevity. The dynamic one-step generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation on a cylindrical data panel from 1998 to 2018 for eight Tunisian regions confirmed the positive effect of these new variables. Additionally, the education-fertility interaction was found to be no longer obvious. The family planning program appeared to no longer play its role in limiting fertility. The income effect overcame the substitution effect in favor of a fertility increase. The observed increasing fertility trend in Tunisia seems to be more explained by the dominance of some sociocultural factors. Thus, policymakers should seek to better focus on the family institution's behavior to sustain fertility decline and improve the efficiency of its family planning program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental applications play a significant role in the ongoing research area of Polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PolSAR) image classification. In this paper, a new model is proposed for classifying PolSAR images and applied to a part of the Greater Cairo area in the Nile basin, South of Delta, Egypt. First, the proposed model performs data pre-processing by extracting the coherency and covariance elements noted as [T] and [C] matrices, respectively. Second, temporal convolutional networks (TCN) deep learning is used to extract the features from coherency and covariance elements and then train the model. Third, the SoftMax classifier is used to classify the PolSAR image. Finally, the proposed model is tested with evaluation metrics. The obtained results show that the proposed model can achieve high classification performances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The practice of burying boats and digging boat-shaped pits inside funerary complexes belonging to Early Dynastic elites and kings is well attested in early Egypt. However, the origins of this custom and its evolution from the 1st Dynasty until the Middle Kingdom remain to be fully addressed holistically and diachronically. This paper aims to re-evaluate current data regarding Early Dynastic boat burials and boat-shaped pits, to share some insights on the development of this tradition, and to address its adaptation to Old Kingdom religious and political innovations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2005, a team of Polish archaeologists discovered three Coptic codices, two on papyrus and one on parchment, in the rubbish dump of a hermitage at Sheik Abd el-Gurna, Egypt. While the parchment codex and the remains of the bindings of the papyrus ones have been conserved, the text blocks of the papyrus codices were opened and disassembled and after being disinfected remained untouched for nearly 15 years, until the current project started. Currently, all three books are stored in the collection of the Coptic Museum in Cairo. Our team undertook the conservation of and archaeometric research on the papyrus codices. The first of the books contains the Canons of Pseudo-Basil, while the second is an Encomium of St. Pisenthios. Both codices have been palaeographically dated to the seventh-eighth centuries CE. In this paper, we describe our project and present the results of the work carried out on the Canons of Pseudo-Basil. Our work involved photography in transmitted light, measurements of the thickness of the papyrus leaves, and digital microscopy under three-light illumination. These measurements allowed us to determine the types of the inks and characterize the papyrus writing substrate. For conservation, we used a novel method developed in the Egyptian Museum in Berlin that comprises suspending papyrus folios on a translucent, extremely thin Japanese paper inside glass frames without the use of adhesives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper provides a comprehensive comparison of the experiences of debt accumulation and of the debt crises which took place within less than a decade during the second half of the nineteenth century in Tunisia, Egypt and the Ottoman Empire. The comparison covers the period from the 1850s to the 1880s, as the three countries were attempting to modernize and meet the challenges posed by the industrial revolution and the European expansion globally. They quickly faced financial constraints, increased their external borrowing and ran into crisis. These crises, which were triggered from 1867 to 1876, were part of the second wave of crises during the nineteenth century. The countries differed considerably in the way the crises were managed and resolved. In this context, based on available information, the paper provides a quantitative assessment of the debt burden and the various indicators of creditworthiness using constructed series on total GDP for the three countries for the period 1860–1884. This allows for a comparison of the full processes of debt accumulation, the triggering of the crises and their resolution. In doing so it brings together a wealth of data and information about the factors which impacted creditworthiness and capacity to service debt, relating to trade and fiscal revenues, which played a major role in determining the severity of the crises and the way they were resolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study was to investigate the extent of contamination of some of the most used paper denominations of the Egyptian currency (25 PT). Sixty-nine bills in circulation were collected from November 2003 through January 2004. A swab from each bill was cultured on nutrient agar and incubated at 37°C for 48?h. Results showed that over 65% of these bills had a bacterial count above 5.0?cm 2 . A preliminary identification of organisms present on these paper notes was done using selected Petri dishes with well-defined colonies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Egypt's need for clean and renewable energy is pressing for numerous reasons, such as unpredictable fuel prices, diminishing fossil fuel resources, and growing concern about environmental degradation. Harvesting untapped geothermal resources could meet domestic electricity needs besides enabling Egypt to export electricity. The location of Egypt confirms that it has suitable geothermal energy potential areas in some provinces around the country, especially along the Gulf of Suez, the Red Sea, and the Western Desert. The Red Sea coast and the coasts of the Gulf of Suez exhibit several surface manifestations (hot springs and thermal water wells), indicating the presence of geothermal systems in these areas. The objective of this paper is to investigate the geothermal resources and obtain a full image of the geothermal potential of the Hurghada area along the Red Sea coast using geophysical potential field data. Aeromagnetic and aerogravity data were used to identify the most promising target regions for geothermal potentiality. Power spectral analysis of the aeromagnetic data was utilised to appraise the Curie point depth (CPD) and obtain geothermal gradient and heat flow maps of the Hurghada area, whereas a 3-D inversion of gravity data was utilised to estimate the depths to the Precambrian basement rocks. In addition to 3-D inversion of magnetic data to evaluate the spatial distribution of magnetic susceptibility. This study found no direct relationship between basement depths and the CPD, where basement rock outcrops at some locations correlate to a decrease in the Curie surface, while at others, they correspond to an increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2011, Egypt saw one of the largest protest movements in its modern history: the 25th of January revolution. One of its major demands was the call for democracy and end of dictatorship after 30 years of Mubarak's rule. After ousting Mubarak, the Egyptian public sphere witnessed an openness. Even with increasing levels of oppression and violence, there were open spaces for freedom of association, expression, and demonstration, etc. Yet, in 2013 and with the intense protests against the elected Muslim Brotherhood (MB) president, the military interfered and ousted the elected president. In light of these events, Egypt witnessed a backlash against democracy under the pretext of fighting 'terrorism'. Since then, Egypt has been seeing manifestations of this relapse on almost all levels, in terms of legislations, decrees, practices that closed the public space to any protesting voices, with higher levels of oppression and violence against the opposition and not only the so-called 'terrorists'. In this context, this paper proposes to dissect the Egyptian stumbling road to democratisation since 2011. It examines internal factors as well as the role of regional and international actors in orchestrating developments in Egypt. The paper proposes that the process of democratisation in Egypt has faced multiple drawbacks, not only related to regime type (military rule) but also with respect to social movements, the involvement of regional actors, etc.. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arab cinema has not featured many protagonists with disabilities, but over the past two decades differently abled characters have appeared on movie and television screens in the Middle East and North Africa. From feature films to Ramadan serials, characters with Hansen's Disease, Down Syndrome, autism, visual impairments, dwarfism, and missing limbs have emerged in films and television shows from Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon. Characters with disabilities in Yomeddine (Egypt), Behind the Sun (Syria), and Tale of Amal (Lebanon) challenge disability stigma in Arab cultures and highlight the toll of caregiving. While these portrayals, which all incorporate religious interpretations of disability and feature poor characters living on the margins, attempt to correct the absence of disability representations and discourse in Arab societies, they fall into familiar tropes of disability objectification by employing the 'prosthetic' of a disability narrative to explore other marginalized social issues like abortion, gender, race, and religious differences. There is hardly any research on how disability is portrayed in film and television in Syria, Egypt, and Lebanon The research sheds important light on how disability and poverty intersect in Arab popular culture This paper discusses how religion (Islam in particular) is used to understand, interpret, and manage disability in Arab societies This research shows how Arab filmmakers are using film and television to advocate for more awareness and compassion for people with disabilities in Arab societies. This paper covers taboo subjects related to disability such as abortion, religious minorities, sexuality, and gender marginalization [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does urban migrant and refugee settlement occur in face of national inaction on immigration policy? This paper focuses on recent migration to Cairo, a Global South megacity that is home to migrants and refugees from across sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Using in-depth fieldwork, it examines the informal policies that have developed in the absence of national legislation, and explores the impact these have on: (1) the ability for individual migrants and refugees to participate socially, politically and economically; (2) the ability for civil society organizations to organize, provide social services, or engage in activism; (3) occasions when the Egyptian state will forego its hands-off approach in favour of direct intervention. This informs our understanding of the relationship between national policy, informal urban governance, and migrant and refugee settlement in the context of Global South cities, with potential applications to other urban environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Utilizing an institutionalist approach, this paper traces the historical transitions of formal-informal interactions in the Egyptian political system before and after the 2011 Revolution. I argue that formal-informal interactions moved from Complementary during the first two decades of Mubarak's rule, to Competing in his last decade, then back to Complementary under Sisi. Each transition was motivated by a critical juncture. The first transition was driven by Mubarak's desire to bequeath power to his son, Gamal, while the second was motivated by the collapse of his regime in 2011. Each transition was marked by differing means. Mubarak used electoral politics to manage formal-informal relations, while the current regime under Sisi is heavily reliant on coercion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South African bioeconomy strategy did not clearly articulate the measurement framework to monitor the implementation of the strategy. This paper provides an analysis of bioeconomy patents, the most prolific organizations and citations at the EPO and USPTO for South Africa, BRICS, Egypt and Nigeria during the Ten-Year Innovation Plan 2008–2018. The terms 'biotechnology', 'medical technology', 'pharmaceuticals' and 'selected environment-related technologies' were used to search for patents. The OECD patents by technology, the EPO PATSTAT and the USPTO PatFT databases were used to map patents and citations. The results show that South Africa ranked last in the BRICS group but produced a higher number of patents than Egypt and Nigeria. The number of patents generally decreased for the selected countries except for China. The total citations for the selected countries was generally inconsistent. The important innovators for South Africa in the bioeconomy are mainly universities and public research institutions. A new fiscal approach to encourage knowledge application in bioeconomy in South Africa is required. Incentives from government that encourage collaboration between research institutions and industry to direct research with industry application are required. The study contributes to the development of metrics to monitor the bioeconomy in South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The observed low level of information and communication technology (ICT) usage among micro, small, and medium-sized enterprise (MSME) firms in many African countries may serve as a major constraint to their productivity. The productivity of service and manufacturing firms is impacted differently due to this low uptake of ICT. This paper seeks to examine the differential effects of ICT on MSMEs' productivity in emerging African economies, specifically Egypt and Nigeria. This study evaluates the effects of ICT on MSMEs' productivity across different sectors (services and manufacturing), by size and aggregated. The estimated results support the positive impact of MSMEs' website presence and use of email on their productivity, though the magnitude varies across different analyses and sectors. This appears to support the differential sectoral impacts of ICT on MSMEs' productivity across countries in emerging markets. Specifically, this study finds evidence for a higher impact of firms' website presence on productivity in the manufacturing sector than the services sector across emerging economies. The study, therefore, recommends that emerging markets economies that want to implement appropriate national technology policies to enhance their firms' productivity should always consider their differential effects on various sectors, as universal ICT policies may not achieve the desired objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After residence in Alexandria in the 20s BC, Strabo describes early imperial Egypt in Book 17 of his Geography. This paper explains Strabo's contemporary focus, and his reactions to earlier accounts, including Herodotus Book 2. As a Hellenistic Greek writing after Actium, Strabo describes Ptolemaic changes, but promotes a more recent pro-imperial reading of the country. He rates the last Ptolemies as corrupt and venal, placing a positive focus on the economic measures of the Roman prefects, and their military control. His travels up the Nile with the prefect enable him to support Augustan claims to have corrected Ptolemaic abuses, and to have ensured the prosperity of the country. He outlines Egypt's broader role in the region, and Augustan measures to bring goods from India and Arabia via the Red Sea through the Egyptian desert to Coptos and Alexandria, thus optimizing Roman revenues through import and export taxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 2011 Arab Spring revolutions many scholars of the Middle East have built and analyzed locally-sourced protest event datasets, which have been hailed for providing superior coverage to various off-the-shelf datasets that rely primarily on English-language sources. This paper assesses the extent of these coverage improvements. It shows that across five different MENA countries, locally-sourced datasets identify considerably more events than most off-the-shelf datasets. It then compares one locally-sourced dataset of protests in Egypt from January 2012 to July 2013 to two prominent off-the-shelf datasets: ACLED and SCAD. These comparisons reveal that both ACLED and SCAD significantly overcount large, urban, violent, and political events. Next the paper compares the Egypt dataset to data compiled by two Egyptian activist groups, and finds that the locally-sourced dataset is also biased in key respects, undercounting small labor events outside the capital. Finally, the paper demonstrates the implications of these biases by showing how statistical models of protest repression differ when using the locally-sourced dataset versus SCAD. Scholars of Mediterranean politics analyzing within-case and sub-national mobilization dynamics should use locally-sourced datasets whenever possible, but should also be aware that using local sources does not entirely eliminate certain forms of bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to explore the extent to which Globally Responsible Humanism (GRH) is embedded in the management education offered by public business schools in Egypt. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 24 management educators working at three public business schools. The findings show an absence of socio-cultural, ethical, and eco-political themes in their courses and research activities. Moreover, only five of our respondents highlight a superficial embedding of the definitions of social responsibility, sustainability, environmental awareness, and ethics in economics, accounting, and management courses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than half of leaders who come to power through military coups hold elections to legitimate their regimes, yet there is extensive subnational variation in how citizens accept or reject this process. In this paper, we examine district-by-district voting patterns in Egyptian presidential elections a few months following the July 2013 military coup to identify the ecological correlates of three district-level measures of citizen engagement with the electoral process: voter turnout, valid (non-spoilt) ballots, and votes cast for the regime-affiliated candidate. Controlling for baseline measures of these outcomes from the free and fair presidential elections prior to the coup, we find support for the enduring effect of partisanship: districts with higher support for the deposed candidate in pre-coup elections featured systematically lower turnout and rates of valid voting in post-coup elections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aims to develop mitigation techniques for the implications that affect the city planning sectors in Egypt during COVID-19, which will guide urban planners and policymakers to enhance Egyptian citizen life during pandemics. A statistical thematic methodology was adopted by the research. The research method divided into three phases. The first phase considers the attitude of Egyptian citizens toward the global pandemic through conducting surveys. These surveys discuss the global effects of the pandemic and if these effects are felt in the Egyptian context or not. The second phase targets the citizen that disagree with the global effects as a result of the phase one survey through structured interviews. These interviews concluded the reasons behind the disagreement of the surveys in phase one as well as the effects that they personally suffer from during the pandemic. The third phase targets the policymakers and planners inside Egypt and their perspectives on the suitable mitigation techniques that can be implemented in the Egyptian context. This will finally lead to suggesting a set of mitigation techniques suitable for Egyptian cities. The research paper identified through a review of literature the mostly affected city planning sectors during COVID-19 which were 6 sectors. In addition, 25 global mitigation measures were identified through the literature. Results of the Surveys and structured interviews confirmed that the most affected sectors are transport & land use, housing, and ICT respectively. Findings of data analysis showed that 10 extra mitigation measures were encountered to better enhance the Egyptian cities. These findings help planners and policy makers to plan cities that can cope with future pandemics. This research presents mitigation techniques for the implications that affect the city planning sectors in Egypt during COVID-19. It was based on research from case studies, a literature review, and a survey questionnaire. The mitigation techniques developed in a practical procedure where the goals of the research; required activities; techniques, and tools; elaborated the citizen needs and outputs. The mitigation techniques was authenticated by 24 of the Egyptian professionals' planners and policy makers to ensure its viability and practicability for implementation. The research categorized and examined the global effects that changed the quality of life during pandemics. Moreover, real life case study authenticated the global effects and explored the most successful mitigation countermeasures that suites the Egyptian context. The study focused on a subject that has recently attracted interest on a global scale. In addition, this paper developed 10 extra mitigation measures to better enhance the Egyptian cities and other developing countries of similar context. It represents a novel contribution that planners and policy makers can employ in similar context to the Egyptian cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been a great number of works on the Suez Crisis, but scarce academic attention has been paid to the process whereby its settlement was achieved. This paper argues that Britain succeeded in securing fairly sufficient Egyptian concessions with support from the US and the UN. The Americans, who had been hostile to the British prior to their agreement to withdraw troops from the Canal Zone, led the effort to make the Egyptians concede during negotiations on the Canal's reopening. Contrary to the prevailing argument that Britain suffered a political defeat because of international pressure, this paper argues that Britain persuaded the US to acquiesce to the de facto arrangement because of the Canal's economic value. The deployment of the UNEF brought a certain level of humiliation to Egyptian sovereignty. As Nasser's influence in Middle Eastern affairs was contained, Britain chose a pragmatic deal with Egypt over the Canal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transition to non-employment is prevalent for women in the Egyptian labor market, particularly those working in the private sector. This paper analyzes women's labor market transitions, particularly to non-employment and to other labor market states in the time around marriage and childbirth. We test whether individual characteristics, work characteristics, or agency affect women's transitions. Specifically, the paper answers three main questions: First, what are the explanatory factors for the women's transition to non-employment? Second, what are the differences between the effect of previous job characteristics and women's agency on the employment decision? Third, what are the determinants of the transition to other labor market states (multiple employment decisions)? Drawing on panel and retrospective data from the 2012 and 2018 waves of Egypt's Labor Market Panel Survey, we estimate these relationships using a single risk model and a competing risk model. Results show that marriage and motherhood increase women's transition to non-employment. The timing of the transition happens at marriage and the year before marriage (anticipation effect). This impact is more considerable for women working in the private sector than the public sector. Women working in non-wage work transition to private wage work in the years before marriage. The results show that the sector of employment plays a crucial role in women's transition to non-employment. In addition, the availability of external help in the household is considered an important factor that can help retain women in the labor force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic saw two sets of policy responses: lockdown to limit spread of the virus, which was a huge demand and supply shock, and government support to firms and individuals to offset the effects of this policy-induced shock. This paper explores the allocation and effectiveness of government support to firms in Egypt. We consider both financial support measures which were by and large already being implemented pre-COVID, as well as tax- and loan-related exemptions and deferments. After controlling for the endogeneity of government support, our main findings show that the latter has helped mitigate the effects of COVID-19, with a significantly larger, favorable impact on smaller, younger and private firms. There is no equity-effectiveness trade-off. However, although these firms apparently make better use of government support, they receive a disproportionately smaller share of it. In line with the emerging 'unsocial' social contract, government support has been chiefly determined by political connections and a captured industrial policy. This 'misallocation' reinforces the 'missing middle' phenomenon which acts as a constraint as SMEs are unable to grow. Nevertheless, the crisis has presented a chance for the pattern of support to slowly shift towards the more vulnerable through the more frequent use of 'exemptions and deferments'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the study of crustal movements and their relation to earthquake activities within Egypt using the GNSS and seismicity measurements. Fourteen campaigns of GNSS measurements have been collected, processed, and adjusted. The collected data of about 50 permanent and campaign GNSS stations, which covered the whole geographic area of Egypt covering about 12 years, were used. The collected data are utilised using differential GPS with surrounded IGS stations by Bernese software V 5.0. The results of the deformation analysis indicate that northern Egypt is deformed more than the southern part. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several emerging economies have embarked on structural adjustment reform programs that focused more on short-run-oriented stabilization reforms. Yet, longer-term structural policies that can shift their potential GDP were not fully taken into consideration. Thus, this paper contributes to the literature in three ways. First, we contrast the effects of stabilization and allocation policies in order to examine to what extent they complement or substitute each other. Second, we analyze how the effects of such policies can differ in the short and long term and with different market structures (perfect vs. imperfect competition). Third, we develop a CGE model for Egypt that was subject to a recent reform program developed with the IMF. Our main findings show that stabilization reforms reduce economic growth by 2.5% in the short run. Yet, they positively affect it over time especially if they are accompanied by structural reforms. Indeed, the latter increase economic growth (of 8.6% in the long run). Furthermore, from a social perspective, stabilization reform deteriorates households' welfare in the short run. Finally, we find that negative effects of stabilization and structural reforms are more pronounced under imperfect competition pointing out the importance of an effective competition policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this study is to perform an analysis of the performance of radiant cooling panels using experimental testing and transient system simulation software. The effect of design parameters such as water supply temperature and water flow rate on thermal comfort and energy efficiency is studied. Two control schemes are used in the study in which either the water flow rate or the water temperature difference between the inlet and outlet of radiant panels is held constant. This paper demonstrates the modeling and validation of a radiant cooling system in TRNSYS and uses this model to study the performance of the system during the cooling season in Egypt. It was found that the lower water temperature of 16 °C was found to be suitable for achieving thermal comfort. The constant water flow rate control scheme showed a 5% less unmet hours percentage than the constant water temperature difference, but the latter used 38% less electrical energy. A constant water temperature difference control scheme can achieve better thermal comfort with an unmet hours percentage down to 12.5% by coupling the system with a dehumidification device. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discussions on daily life in Early Bronze Age society in the southern Levant often focus on subsistence or ritual phenomena, while aspects relating to entertainment and leisure are rarely discussed. This paper presents evidence for gaming behaviour, in the form of game boards and game pieces, that were recovered in the excavations of the Early Bronze Age (early to mid-3rd millennium bce) residential neighbourhood at Tell eṣ-Ṣâfi/Gath, Israel. All the objects discussed are considered to be part of games (playing pieces, casting pieces, and boards) based on their resemblance to game boards and pieces published from various Early Bronze sites in the southern Levant (e.g., Arad, Megiddo, and Bab edh-Dhra), serve as the backdrop for: 1) a perspective on the social and cultural relationships reflected in these games; 2) an examination of the origins of the 'Senet/30 Houses' game; and 3) the appropriation of foreign cultural facets in Early Bronze Age Canaan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the Egyptian building design strategies for different building envelope shapes based on the green building design using the DesignBuilder program by simulating the outdoor climate conditions depending on the Egyptian meteorological data. The simulated results are applied to Minia City as one of the hotdesert climate regions in Egypt. The research is performed on the hottest day in summer according to the analysis of climatic data overall months using the climate consultant tool. This research studies two main variables to characterize the quantitative relationships between the building form and the Natural Ventilation (NV) of thermal comfort to be achieved, which are mixed-mode maximum wind speed, and natural ventilation setpoint temperature. The research focuses on two output parameters, which are air velocity and pressure, relating to natural outdoor ventilation. The simulation findings revealed that the circle form offers the best case, which has a significant role in achieving thermal comfort that optimized the value between the two major parameters in building design, while the worst case is the U-shaped building based on the same two optimized values. Finally, the usage of natural ventilation, simultaneously with choosing the suitable building geometry, is principal for adapting the current outdoor air velocity and pressure, thus reducing the energy consumption of buildings. Practical application: This paper studies the relationship between building form and natural ventilation to achieve outdoor thermal comfort and its effects on buildings. The study assesses the wind speed and temperature parameters using the DesignBuilder tool. The study suggests a combination between natural ventilation and choosing the suitable building form to adapt the air velocity and pressure to reduce the energy consumption of the buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shifts the focus from male paperless migrants to the women who stay in their country of origin. My analysis of the discrepancy between borderless economics and the bordered movement of people explores the representation of the women left behind in Ayman Zohry's novella 'The Mediterranean Sea', which describes irregular migration from Egypt to Italy. This paper investigates the intersection between the forces of patriarchy and globalisation in the lives of the women who are left in the sending countries. The article starts by shedding light on the writer, who is an expert in immigration studies. The second section of this essay focuses on the wives' struggle against the glocal masculine and geopolitical dictates. The third part of the paper analyses the juncture of gender and global capital in the lives of the mothers left behind. My investigation of the hardships endured by migrants' wives and mothers demonstrates that immigration torments those women who stay in the homeland as much as it afflicts the spouses who travel to 'Hopeland' (Obi, Cyril. 2007. "From Homeland to Hopeland? Economic Globalization and Ogoni Migration in the 1990s." In The Cultures of Economic Migration: International Perspectives, edited by Suman Gupta, and Tope Omonyi, 115. Burlington, VT: Ashgate). My main argument is that the Egyptian women left behind have to strive against both the contradictions induced by globalisation and the subordination generated by male domination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mycotoxins, which are natural toxic compounds produced by filamentous fungi, are considered major contaminants in the food and feed chain due to their stability during processing. Their impacts in food and feedstuff pollution were accentuated due the climate change in the region. They are characterized by their toxicological effects on human and animal health but also by their harmful economic impact. Mediterranean countries: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia are characterized by high temperatures and high relative humidity, particularly in littoral regions that provide favorable conditions for fungal growth and toxinogenesis. Many scientific papers have been published recently in these countries showing mycotoxin occurrence in different commodities and an attempt at bio-detoxification using many bio-products. In order to minimize the bioavailability and/or to detoxify mycotoxins into less toxic metabolites (bio-transforming agents), safe and biological methods have been developed including the use of lactic acid bacteria, yeasts, plant extracts and clays minerals from Mediterranean regions. The aim of this review is to present the pollution of mycotoxins in food and feedstuff of humans and animals and to discuss the development of effective biological control for mycotoxin removal/detoxification and prevention using bio-products. This review will also elucidate the new used natural products to be considered as a new candidates for mycotoxins detoxification/prevention on animal feedstuffs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, two new species of Proctolaelaps Berlese are described. P. vanharteni sp.n. is described from Cape Verde, and P. zaheri AboShnaf & Moraes, n. sp., from Egypt. The second of these species had been inadvertently characterized in detail by AboShnaf & Moraes as P. pygmaeus (Müller). Additionally, Proctolaelaps bickleyi (Bram) is first reported from South Africa. The type species of the genus P. productus Berlese, as well as P. aegyptiacus Nasr (new senior synonym of P. debensis Jordaan and Loots) and P. bickleyi are complementarily described. A key to the Proctolaelaps species reported so far from Africa is given. Publication registration . Taxa registration: Proctolaelaps vanharteni . Proctolaelaps zaheri . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the customer experience-satisfaction nexus is a highly developed body of work in the wider literature, this link has scarcely been explored in health tourism. Accordingly, this paper aims to assess the dimensions of health services experiences leading to tourists' satisfaction and the moderating role of trust and emotions in the link between satisfaction and destination loyalty. A PLS-SEM is employed to analyze data from a sample of 225 health tourists in Egypt. The results show that health tourism experiences dimensions significantly affect tourists' satisfaction, which in turn positively impacts their loyalty. Additionally, destination trust and emotions moderate the connection between satisfaction and loyalty. Theoretical contributions arise for scholars and practical ramifications are presented for service providers and stakeholders in the Egyptian health tourism scene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a new non-conventional method for uranium leaching by thiourea (TU) was proposed. Effects of thiourea concentration, leaching time, solid/liquid ratio, stirring speed and leaching temperature for uranium leaching from the El-Sella ore were studied. The obtained optimum data for leaching of uranium by thiourea were as follow: the leaching time, the concentration of thiourea, the ratio of solid to liquid (S/L), stirring speed, the leaching temperature and particle size are 180 min, 2.24 mol/L, 1/5 g/mL, 200 rpm, 298 K and −0.25 mm respectively. The obtained uranium leaching efficiency is 89.12%. Kinetics and thermodynamic studies of the leaching process as well as the reaction mechanism between thiourea and uranium has been discussed. Results show that the predominant dissolution mechanism of uranium was diffusion controlled, exothermic nature and spontaneous reaction. REEs extraction from the uranium leached residue was studied where hydrochloric acid of 4.02 mol/L concentration solid/liquid ratio of 1/5 g/mL, for 180 min at 80°C was applied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geohazard risk is high in Arab countries due to ineffective disaster preparedness measures, mismanagement, lack of public awareness, inadequate funding and lack of stakeholder support. One such country is Egypt, which is hit by floods every year that cost lives and bring the economy to a standstill. Moreover, not much has been done to map flood-prone areas. In this paper, flood susceptibility modelling was evaluated in the Ras Gharib region of Egypt using two effective techniques machine learning techniqueMLT (Support Vector Machine (SVM)) and deep learning methodDL (Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN)). Thirteen flood related factors and flood inventory layer were prepared to construct these models. Validation was performed with 30% of the flood locations where receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed that the deep learning technique (CNN) gave a prediction accuracy of 86.5% (high performance), while the MLTs (SVM) gave 71.6% (medium performance). The results show that CNN provides 17% better than SVM which indicates a powerful and accurate model in flood susceptibility mapping. Results were confirmed using the Astro Digital images shortly after the 2016 flood, in which the CNN model provides a good agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of chronic illnesses on labor force participation using labor market surveys data for Egypt and Tunisia. The study also investigates the reverse effect of labor force participation on the incidence of chronic diseases. We adopted the simultaneous equations modeling technique to address the potential endogeneity of chronic illnesses in the labor participation equation. The results reveal that chronically ill people are less likely to participate in the labor force in both Egypt and Tunisia. However, the sub-samples analysis indicates some variations across gender and age groups. Specifically, the effect of chronic illnesses is found to be larger and significant for the male group compared to female counterparts. Likewise, the feedback effect shows that labor force participation exerts negative impact on chronic illness, particularly for the total sample. Moreover, the impact of labor force participation on chronic diseases in elder group is larger compared to its effect in the younger group. The study recommends that policymakers in the Arab countries should endeavor to reduce chronic health conditions in order to boost labor force participation and productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a case study of Alexandria city, Egypt, this paper investigates the configuration, interrelation, and integration of urban expansion within the framework of sustainability transitions to enhance the performance of sociotechnical transitions. It explores two main arguments; first, to evaluate the recent urban planning innovations, and second, to raise awareness of the participatory planning model to enhance the involvement of the three pillars to better integrate urban sustainable development. It presumes there is a linkage between urban sustainability transitions and the geographical transitions. It further evaluates whether this linkage would benefit accommodating the rapid population growth of Alexandria. This research applies an empirical methodology to test concepts and patterns known from theory generating three scenarios from empirical data. Moving beyond the 'niche–regime dichotomy', this study concludes that innovative practices and vested interests are typically constituted in a dualistic manner and tend to incite processes of change in both. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have investigated the relationship between political instability and economic growth separately from the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth. Besides, they did not cover the period after 2011 (i.e. the Arab Spring and its consequences). Therefore, this paper attempts to empirically analyze the long-run and short-run impacts of both political instability and military expenditure on economic growth in Egypt. We estimate the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach using data on the Egyptian economy over the period 1982–2018. For the robustness of our results, we use the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimator. Results of the ARDL approach indicate a significant negative relationship between political instability and economic growth in both the long-run and short-run. Contrarily, military expenditure has an insignificant impact on economic growth, especially in the long-run. These results are confirmed by the FMOLS estimator. Moreover, the estimated coefficient on the one-period lagged error correction term (ECTt-1) indicates that deviations from the long-run equilibrium relationship are corrected within a year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholarly work on migration to Europe and North America asserts that states adopt liberal migration policies when migrants are able to mobilise and when they are assisted by state and non-state institutions. To what extent does this explanation for mobilisation transfer to the Global South where authoritarian state structures might be in place, thereby constraining certain political behaviours? This paper examines why migrants and refugees have been able to mobilise to a greater extent in Morocco than in Egypt. Drawing primarily on original data from semi-structured interviews, this paper assesses the formal and informal rules that constrain or permit certain political behaviours among non-national populations in each host state. I find that the Moroccan system has been more responsive than the Egyptian state to migrant and refugee mobilisation due primarily to the type of authoritarian governance in place. While both Egypt and Morocco seek to retain control overt opposition, the Moroccan regime since the 1990s has allowed for a degree of openness, permitting visible forms of resistance and ultimately co-opting critics, whereas Egypt – especially since 2013 – has sought to violently eliminate any form of contestation and since 2014 has also sought to limit any associational activities related to human rights promotion. The findings address the question of whether extant explanations for migrant mobilisation and subsequent policy reform travel to the Global South, and also contribute to understandings of whether and how the political mobilisation of migrants and refugees can take place in non-democratic spaces and to what effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to explore political street art images as sequences in a dialogue that feeds from, and extends to, wider political discourse. The paper argues for the centrality and predominance of the visual in the way everyday political discourse is negotiated and in the process through which space is produced in the city. The images are conceptualized through sociocultural psychology as intervention tools that are used by different social actors in response to different political dialogues in public discourse. A longitudinal methodology is used to follow the transformative social lives of those images as they borrow from, and respond to, one another. A longitudinal series of images will be presented from one wall in the area of Tahrir Square during and after the Egyptian revolution of 2011, images which were made by different social groups in response to political and social changes, and which thus demonstrate contested political dialogue in the form of inscribing and re-inscribing the recent history of the revolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs a historiographical approach to review the allied fields of Egyptology and Egyptian Archaeology in relation to studies of disability and bodily differences in ancient Egypt. We incorporate critical disability studies and embodiment theories to consider whether ableism is prevalent across these disciplines. The focus of this study has been inverted from 'identifying' disability. Instead our primary driving question is: are Egyptological approaches to bodily differences and disabilities contributing to a production and maintenance of ableism in Egyptology? Here we first identify ableist narratives within numerous methodologies highlighting the need to reconsider existing approaches, terminologies, models, and assumptions regarding studies of disability in the ancient past. We then challenge readers to recognise ableism as a form of inequality in the existing scholarship, and in turn, call for better awareness of assumptions relating to bodily norms, terminologies, and inclusivity in ancient world studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1970s, many economies increasingly rely on 'importing' water embedded in food imports, a process referred to here as virtual-water 'imports'. In water-scarce countries, virtual-water 'imports' are used to protect the economy's own water which would otherwise be consumed in food production to meet the growing population and economy food needs, or to support the population's food needs beyond that sustainable by internal water resources. This process is referred to here as virtual-water decoupling. This paper examines the role of virtual-water decoupling to achieve a version of food–water security for water-scarce societies, with a particular focus on Egyptian virtual-water decoupling policy during the period 1962–2013. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling and visualization of three-dimensional (3D) models for cities is a great challenge for computer software and graphics. Recently, 3D city modelling has grown due to advances in applications accompanying the information technology revolution. 3D Geographic Information Systems (3D-GIS) have evolved enormously due to the availability of large-scale 3D modelling techniques. These technologies have become very important in representing large cities and conducting various analyses in the city's virtual environment to support urban decision-making. CityEngine is one of the most recent 3D-GIS modelling applications. CityEngine can be described as parametric modelling using Procedural Modelling (PM) to create 3D urban elements through macros and routines. This paper highlights the importance of 3D Procedural Modelling (PM) of cities in the GIS environment using ESRI CityEngine and presents a parametric concept for designing urban spaces. This issue has been addressed in three respects. First, discuss the concept and strength of parametric design. Second, the concept of procedural modelling and its power to generate complex 3D models using a set of rules is discussed. Finally, CityEngine was evaluated through a real-world case study of a neighbourhood in the new city of Beni-Suef, Egypt. The results confirm the effectiveness of CityEngine as a 3D-GIS modelling software that generates dynamic 3D models from 2D spatial data. While the results are promising, it is important to investigate more complex cases. The CityEngine modelling approach enables comprehensive urban analyses such as sequence vision, façade studies, urban fabric and character, and statistical operations based on attribute database. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper offers literature review of the three suggested approaches that answer the question of ancient Egyptian meter. These theories reflect the constant contradictions between the dominant European Imperial languages of the 19 century (German - French - English). The paper also investigates the religious motivations that prompt Euro-American scholars to compare ancient Egyptian with Biblical texts. The rediscovered thematic affinities formed the main objective of these studies in order to restore historical hypothesizes that approve the legitimacy of several Biblical thoughts. Moving beyond the theoretical parameters of Eurocentric modernity, this paper argues that medieval Arabic literary criticism can be used as a foundation for understanding the literary nature of ancient Egyptian literary devices in order to recognize the various internal forces of the ancient Egyptian literary reproductions. Premodern Arabic poetics, represented in the theory of balāghah (literally 'eloquence' and roughly 'poetics'), can offer the ideal path to take advantage of the linguistic affinities between the two languages in the realm of literary studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The River Nile, Egypt's main source of water, is polluted by agricultural, industrial and municipal wastewater discharges. The paper reports a study of biological pollution of river water through bacterial and parasitological analysis, besides chemical pollution by cadmium and lead. The researchers collected water samples seasonally from 12 sites in Greater Cairo along a year (from July 2019 to June 2020). Some sites were contaminated with total coliforms, Acanthamoeba sp., and Cryptosporidium oocysts, whereas Naegleria sp. was recorded at all sites. Although the recorded Cd concentrations were below the permissible levels in all sites, the concentration of Pb exceeded the permissible limit in some sites. In conclusion, Nile River water in Greater Cairo region is contaminated, especially with total coliforms and free living amoebae. This health threat needs to be controlled and diminished by law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Egypt's 2007 National Water Resources Plan projected that water supply and demand would still be in balance by 2017. However, in 2010, the National Water Resources Plan – Coordination Project found that agricultural demands were far higher than previously estimated and demand already exceed the officially available resources. The first part of this paper deals with the estimation of the Nile water balance in 2010; the second discusses measures, including actions in the wider economy, that would allow Egypt to manage the situation and cohabit with its co-riparians as they implement their own plans to use Nile waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper investigates the unconventional hydrocarbon potential and characteristics of Campanian-Paleocene oil shales at five outcrop sections in central Egypt and Jordan. Onehundred and seven outcrop samples were analyzed for their content of total organic carbon and total sulfur. Twenty-four samples were selected for further geochemical treatment, including Rock-Eval pyrolysis, and six samples were subjected to molecular analyses using gas Chromatography (GC) and Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). The distribution of aliphatic hydrocarbon biomarkers indicated that most of the organic matter in the studied samples had a marine origin under anoxic to suboxic conditions. The results indicated that the upper Campanian Duwi Formation in the Quseir area of central Egypt and the Maastrichtian-Paleocene Muwaqqar Chalk Marl (MCM) Formation in the Lajjun area of central Jordan had a relatively high hydrocarbon generating potential with a TOC content of up to 20%wt of immature Type I/II kerogen. Biomarker studies of the investigated formations revealed that the origin of the organic matter is marine algae with a minor contribution of bacterial biomass. The terrigenous/aquatic ratio (TAR) indicated the marine origin of the Jordanian organic matter (MCM and Al-Hisa Phosphorite Formation formations). By contrast, the Duwi Formation in Egypt and the Amman silicified limestone Formation in the Umm Qais section of Jordan showed that these localities were affected by a more terrigenous influx to the principal marine organic matter compared with other rock units. In addition, in the Abu Tartur section the Duwi Formation showed a significant microbial reworking of organic matter reducing the actual amount of organic matter and its hydrocarbon generating potentiality. Clear correlations between nature and the preservation of organic matter is noticed, where the high organic matter mainly occurs in regional paleo-upwelling areas, strongly related to an increase in marine phytoplanktonic/algal and bacterial productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the potential of multi-model ensemble learning techniques for conflict research and applies an ensemble averaging framework to the prediction task of the 2020 ViEWS armed conflict forecasting competition. The goal is to predict changes of conflict intensity in fifty-four African countries for 6 months into the future. The presented ensemble combines six individual models, using two tree-based learning algorithms, incorporating two distinct data foundations and two geographical selections into a unified forecasting framework. In one of the two applied datasets, the combination of conflict variables from recent months is implemented to train for inter-temporal connections of previous conflict levels. The second dataset contains important structural, economic, political, and social information relevant for each individual case. Both datasets are used to predict changes in conflict levels. The framework structure and the combination method are presented in detail, and the prediction results for both test periods between 2014–2016 and 2016–2019 are evaluated regarding their quality. The effect of the ensemble structure and the performance of all individual components is comprehensively examined. Real forecasts over the timespan of six months into the future are presented for the upcoming months of October 2020 through March 2021 generated from data available until August 2020. The paper concludes with the presentation and examination of three selected case forecasts for Egypt, Cameroon, and Mozambique. El artículo examina el potencial de las técnicas de aprendizaje de conjuntos multimodelos para la investigación de conflictos y aplica un marco de promedio de conjuntos a la tarea de predicción del concurso de previsión de conflictos armados; ViEWS 2020. La meta es predecir los cambios en la intensidad de los conflictos en cincuenta y cuatro países africanos durante seis meses en el futuro. El conjunto presentado combina seis modelos individuales, que utilizan dos algoritmos de aprendizaje basados en árboles, y que incorporan dos bases de datos distintas y dos selecciones geográficas en un marco de previsión unificado. En uno de los dos conjuntos de datos aplicados, se implementa la combinación de variables de conflicto de los últimos meses para estudiar las conexiones intertemporales de los niveles de conflicto anteriores. El segundo conjunto de datos contiene información estructural, económica, política y social importante para cada caso individual. Ambos conjuntos de datos se utilizan para predecir los cambios en los niveles de conflicto. La estructura del marco y el método de combinación se presentan en detalle, y se evalúa la calidad de los resultados de la predicción para ambos períodos de prueba entre 2014-2016 y 2016-2019. Se analiza a fondo el efecto de la estructura del conjunto y el funcionamiento de todos los componentes individuales. Se presentan previsiones reales a seis meses, para los próximos meses de octubre de 2020 a marzo de 2021, generados a partir de los datos disponibles hasta agosto de 2020. El artículo concluye con la presentación y el análisis de tres previsiones de casos seleccionados de Egipto, Camerún y Mozambique. Cet article examine le potentiel des techniques d'apprentissage ensembliste multi-modèles pour les recherches sur les conflits et applique un cadre de moyennage ensembliste à la tâche de prédiction du concours de prévision des conflits armés ViEWS (violence early-warning system, système d'alerte précoce sur la violence) 2020. L'objectif est de prédire les changements d'intensité des conflits dans cinquante-quatre pays africains sur les six mois à venir. L'ensemble présenté combine six modèles individuels en utilisant deux algorithmes d'apprentissage basés sur des arbres et en intégrant deux fondations de données distinctes et deux sélections géographiques à une infrastructure de prévision unifiée. Dans l'un des deux jeux de données appliqués, la combinaison des variables de conflit des derniers mois est implémentée pour entraîner les algorithmes sur les relations inter-temporelles des intensités de conflits précédentes. Le deuxième jeu de données contient d'importantes informations structurelles, économiques, politiques et sociales concernant chacun des cas individuels. Les deux jeux de données sont utilisés pour prédire les changements d'intensité des conflits. La structure de l'infrastructure et la méthode de combinaison sont présentées en détails et la qualité des résultats des prédictions est évaluée pour les deux périodes de test, 2014-2016 et 2016-2019. L'effet de la structure ensembliste et les performances de toutes les composantes individuelles sont examinés en profondeur. Les prévisions réelles sur une période de six mois sont présentées pour les mois à venir qui étaient octobre 2020 à mars 2021. Ces prévisions avaient été générées à partir des données disponibles jusqu'août 2020. L'article conclut par une présentation et un examen d'une sélection de prévisions pour trois cas, ceux de l'Égypte, du Cameroun et du Mozambique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]