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A large range of climate change impacts is expected during the twenty-first century in vulnerable regions such as West Africa, where local populations largely rely on livestock systems as their main food production and income source. As climate change threatens livestock systems in various ways, here we assess how regional livestock could be exposed to cumulated climate-related stressors in the future. Using the world's largest multi-model climate impacts simulations database ISIMIP, we find that a large part of West Africa will experience at least 5–6 cumulated multiple climate stressors before the 2030s, including amplified severe heat stress conditions and flood risks. Consequently, about 30% of the current total regional livestock could be exposed to these cumulated stressors, with sheep and goat as the most affected species. This paper brings new quantifications that may help policy makers to prioritize decisions that could prepare local populations to face multiple climate-related impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current scientific evidence shows that human activities are causing interference at different levels in the global climate and availability of natural resources, and many authors already relate water scarcity to the increased risk of violent conflict, particularly in rural societies on the African continent. Climate disruptions caused by climate change are reflected on a regional and local scale, and the greatest impacts are already being felt in the poorest areas of the planet. Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, has been facing environmental problems in its territory that can be associated with climate change, such as rising temperatures, reduced rainfall and advancing desertification. Considering that all these phenomena have been worsening since the early twentieth century in Nigeria and, due to the escalating of violent conflicts since the beginning of the current century, the objective of this paper is to analyse how climate change can interfere in the conflict between herdsmen and farmers, as well as the possible impact of seasonal variation in rainfall on the dynamics of these communal conflicts. The study focused on literature review and the case study took place in four Nigerian states (Plateau, Benue, Taraba and Nasarawa) for the period 2010-2017, focusing on the communal conflict involving the Fulani ethnic group. The approach adopted was the inductive method in which the behaviour of rainfall in the study area was compared with the number of deaths resulting from the conflict, in addition to using geo-processing software to understand the spatial and temporal distribution of casualties. The theoretical framework used was that proposed by Thomas Homer-Dixon (1994) and the information was collected from primary sources, with consultation of qualitative and quantitative data, and from secondary sources through book reviews, publications and papers in scientific journals. While it is not yet possible to establish a direct and linear relationship between climate change and violent conflict, the revised literature indicates that competition for water and other natural resources in certain parts of Nigeria is increasing, and that the violent conflicts between Fulani herdsmen and farmers are increasing due to the dispute over access to water sources and grazing lands. Data analysis shows that in the study area there are 46.4% more deaths in the dry season (November to April) than in the rainy season (May to October). While there are still not enough elements to conclude that climate change is the primary cause of the conflict, the analysis reinforces the need, in certain contexts, particularly in developing countries with populations highly dependent on the primary sector of the economy, for the impacts of climate change to be seriously considered as a risk to human security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rangelands and pastures include grasslands, savannas, shrublands, and woodlands and are often maintained to support grazing animals. Rangelands and pastures cover more than one-third of the land area in the USA and a similar extent globally. The ecosystem goods and services associated with rangeland and pastureland include critical wildlife habitat, forage for livestock, amenities related to water conservation, sustainable soil functions, and soil stabilization and support a diversity of biota and livelihoods. This paper provides a framework for development of a socio-ecological system (SES)–oriented set of indicators for rangeland and pasture systems to support evaluation of impacts of climate and land use changes. These indicators will also serve to inform adaptive management practices. We present a rationale for using an SES approach to evaluate trends and vulnerabilities of rangeland and pasture systems and provide an example of a set of system indicators arising from the SES approach. The indicators include evaporative demand, land cover extent, aboveground plant biomass, human demographics (population age distribution), cattle numbers, and economic value of cattle products relative to total agricultural value. These indicators are not meant to be comprehensive but are offered to illustrate how they might be used in a SES approach to plan for, assess, and mitigate climate change impacts. The conceptual framework provides a systems perspective on the impact of climate change on the socio-ecological dynamics of rangeland and pasture systems including measures of the resilience and vulnerability of ecosystem services with respect to the six indicators. The article focusses on livestock production in rangeland ecosystems, recognizing that additional work is needed to address pastures and other ecosystem services. Examples of the types of regional information associated with the indicators are provided. Guidance for future efforts in indicator development is offered. This framework will serve to guide future development of indicators for rangeland and pasture components of a larger national effort of indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02948-3 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the changing environments globally, it is essential to look deeply into the effects of climate change on rangelands, pastoralists and livestock grazing, and into how the pastoralists cope with the climatic changes and challenges. There is a scientific rationale behind the pastoralists' adaptation strategies for coping with the climate variability. The present review-based paper explores how the rangelands and nomadic pastoralism are critical for grassland biomes and ecosystems. It is scientifically es tablished that the pastoralist lifestyles are not only most sustainable in present times but also most resilient, given the challenges of climatic variability. As the changing climates globally pose threats to grassland ecosystems and associated natural resources, pastoralists and their livestock are affected greatly by erratic weathers and changing availability of palatable biomass. Available literature proves that the pastoralist people hold much of the knowledge about how to adapt in hostile and varying climates. For example, the pastoralists adopt strategies such as rotational use of pasturelands, division of livestock, diversification of livestock, predicting rainfall and seasonal changes, and so on. In addition to understanding the resilience and adaptation strategies of pastoralists, present paper addresses how the technology might help nomadic pastoralists build their resilience on the face of climate change. This paper finally discusses the need to test various technologies in biological, ecological and anthropological contexts of the rangelands and pastoralism so that dying lifestyles and cultures of the marginalized nomadic people can survive in hostile climate change regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper aimed to investigate the interactions between land use cover (LUC) and climate change (CC). • The results showed that the interactions between LUC and CC are both direct and indirect. • Arable and rangeland use changes affect CO2 emission in both direct and indirect ways. • Rising rangelands and reducing forest areas have indirectly increased surface temperature. • CC mitigation policies should be followed by considering both direct and indirect effects. Humanity deals with several challenges in this century such as climate change, land use, and land use/cover change (LUCC). Determining the patterns, developments, and consequences of LUCC issues for the livelihoods of people, especially poor people, is very important. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the interactions between LUCC and climate change over the period of 1966–2015 (50 years) as a complex system at the global level. CO 2 emissions and surface temperature are considered as the main indicators of climate change (CC). The data were analyzed in time-oriented (time-based) and local or place-oriented (country-based) manners. The results showed that arable and rangeland use changes (LUC) affect CO 2 emissions in both direct and indirect ways. However, the direct effect of rangeland use change is positive, and its indirect effect is negative. In addition, deforestation has increased CO 2 emissions indirectly. LUCC can also change the ability of the ecosystem to deliver services to people, including biodiversity and other resources such as food, fiber, water, etc. Therefore, it is critical to determine the patterns, trends, and impacts of LUCC on CC. Thus, CC mitigation policies should be followed by considering both direct and indirect effects. Without a doubt, this will be realized when the decision and policymakers have a better understanding of the structure and interaction between CC, LUCC, and their components as a whole system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The livestock sector in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is under increasing pressure to define its role in jointly addressing food security and climate change. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) has been widely leveraged as an approach to achieving both food security and climate change outcomes through suites of interventions that maximize synergies and reduce tradeoffs among three pillars: productivity, climate change resilience, and climate change mitigation. However, operationalization of the CSA approach in the livestock sector is hindered by a lack of clarity around what the pillars mean for livestock systems, given their fundamental attributes compared to crops and the spatial and temporal dimensions of these attributes. A conceptual framework is also lacking for assessing and comparing the potential CSA synergies and tradeoffs that different livestock systems and interventions may generate. In this paper we aim to offer guidance on the operationalization of the CSA approach in the livestock sector. We draw on a literature review to explore the essential attributes of livestock systems in SSA as they relate to CSA objectives over different temporal and spatial scales. Based on this review, we propose a practical and flexible framework for assessing and comparing the synergies and tradeoffs that different livestock systems may generate among food security and climate change objectives over different spatial and temporal scales. The framework consists of four elements: CSA pillars, spatial-temporal scales, CSA objectives mapped to each spatial-temporal scale, and indicator guidance. Using farm survey data and national statistics, an illustrative application of the framework to two dairy farms in Rwanda is presented and discussed. The illustrative application demonstrates how the framework can be used to identify important, spatial-temporal CSA synergies and tradeoffs that otherwise may go unrecognized. Additional applications are needed to assess the utility, practicality, and potential of the framework to guide CSA operationalization in the livestock sector in SSA. Maximizing synergies and reducing tradeoffs among food security and climate change outcomes in the livestock sector is critical for a sustainable food future. With an emphasis on flexibility for tailoring to specific development contexts and compatibility with varying levels of data availability and methodological complexity, the framework is intended to support diverse stakeholders involved in policy and development seeking to identify those livestock systems that contribute most to food security and climate change objectives over time and space. [Display omitted] • Maximizing synergies among food security & climate change in the livestock sector is critical for a sustainable future. • However, the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approach has not been fully operationalized in livestock sector development. • Spatial & temporal dimensions determine when, where, and for whom CSA synergies & tradeoffs in the livestock sector arise. • We propose a spatial-temporal framework to assess and compare the CSA synergies & tradeoffs of different livestock systems. • Applying the framework can help identify important CSA synergies & tradeoffs that otherwise may go unrecognized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Destocking degraded rangeland can potentially help climate change mitigation by re-sequestering emitted carbon. Broad-scale implementation has been limited by uncertainties in the magnitude, duration and location of sequestration and the profitability relative to the existing grazing land use. This paper employs a novel methodology to assess potential rangeland sequestration and its profitability, using 31 Mha of rangeland in New South Wales, Australia as a case-study. This approach combines remotely sensed data and modelled estimates of various components. Remotely sensed, synthetic aperture radar data were used to determine woody biomass of minimally degraded forest (benchmarks) and neighbouring more-degraded forest, followed by sequestration modelling using non-linear growth rates based on woody thickening and slow-growing plantations, scaled to the benchmarks. Livestock concentration and livestock-based farm profits were modelled. We compared sequestration and grazing net profits, for a carbon price of AUD$10 Mg −1 CO 2 -e, at different growth stages for different levels of forest attrition. We found that broad-scale destocking with subsequent C re-sequestration was initially unprofitable compared with grazing. However, after 50 years, with full costing of C emissions, the returns were similar for the two alternatives of continued grazing or re-sequestration, for areas with biomass below benchmark levels. Reforestation of recently deforested land represents the most profitable option with profitability increasing with growth rate. Emissions of soil organic carbon, set in motion by climate change over the next century, were calculated to be the largest of all sources. Emissions from biomass, induced by climate change, will be higher where vegetation cannot adapt. The secondary effects of climate change will reduce re-sequestration and grazing profits, possibly limiting the carbon stored by re-sequestration projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) represents a substantial area of the terrestrial landmass encompassing several countries and ecosystems. This area is generally drier and warmer compared to the rest of the world, and has extreme resource limitations that are highly vulnerable to a changing climate, geopolitical instability and land degradation. This paper will first identify the nature of climate change in the region by analyzing a downscaled climate data and identifying the hotspots of climate change in MENA. It was found that the climate vulnerability is quite high, with the mean annual temperature increasing by as much as 4–6 degrees towards the end of the century. The nature precipitation under climate change is quite speculative, with the Maghreb region showing the highest vulnerability. Based on these results, five action points are postulated that may be implemented to rapidly progress our understanding of climate vulnerability and enhance the climate change preparedness in MENA's agri-food sector, to take necessary actions to adapt to a changing climate with a systemic resilience perspective. These include working towards: (1) enhancing the sustainability of the rainfed-desert transitional belt (Rangelands) in the MENA; (2) enhancing the sustainability of agri-food systems in the food baskets of MENA and (3) working towards fostering a collective intelligence to support climate change research in the MENA. (4) The need for foresight advice on resilient food systems under climate change and (5) the need for transformative policies for stabilization and reconstruction under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mixed crop-livestock farming systems provide food for over half of the global population. However, some important food exporting countries, like Australia, are predicted to be vulnerable to climate change and may require transformative adaptations if they are to continue their role in food exportation. This paper assesses the potential impacts of projected climate change by 2030 (0.4–1.6° increase in mean temperature) on Australian mixed crop-livestock systems and examines the consequences of shifts in land allocations to cropping and grazing, in these systems, as an adaptation option. Farm bio-economic simulation models were developed for these mixed enterprise systems in several regions of Australia. These models were based on biophysically coupled crop, pasture, and livestock simulation models that in turn drew on site-based downscaled climate projection datasets. The farm models calculated farm profitability and risk measures. A range of land use changes was investigated. At drier locations facing adverse climate change, results showed a transition towards a greater emphasis on livestock production could be beneficial when assessed against multiple criteria of farm profit, downside financial risk, and environmental damage. We highlight some industry and government actions and policies that could facilitate these preferred adaptation strategies at such locations. • Temperature increase of 0.4–1.6° affect mixed crop-livestock systems in Australia. • Transition towards a greater emphasis on livestock production is often desirable. • Financially optimal land allocations vary between historical and future climate. • Increase in the land devoted to pasture is a strategy to manage future climate risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]