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Compared with mechanism-based modeling methods, data-driven modeling based on big data has become a popular research field in recent years because of its applicability. However, it is not always better to have more data when building a forecasting model in practical areas. Due to the noise and conflict, redundancy, and inconsistency of big time-series data, the forecasting accuracy may reduce on the contrary. This paper proposes a deep network by selecting and understanding data to improve performance. Firstly, a data self-screening layer (DSSL) with a maximal information distance coefficient (MIDC) is designed to filter input data with high correlation and low redundancy; then, a variational Bayesian gated recurrent unit (VBGRU) is used to improve the anti-noise ability and robustness of the model. Beijing's air quality and meteorological data are conducted in a verification experiment of 24 h PM2.5 concentration forecasting, proving that the proposed model is superior to other models in accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the boom of big data, the Internet contains more and more personal behavior information, but it is difficult to extract effectively. A model involving multivariate processing capability must be constructed to deal with these time series with complex characteristics. In this paper, a novel hybrid model embedding Baidu Search Index is therefore proposed to implement multi-step ahead subway passenger flow forecasting. Firstly, we collect data from informative Baidu Search Index, reduce dimensionality, and screen out the powerful predictors by statistical analysis. Secondly, we extract matching common modes at similar time scales between the subway passenger flow and screened Baidu Search Index via multivariate mode decomposition being optimized by multi-objective algorithm. Furthermore, to eliminate pseudo statistical causality, we select the optimal combination of modal components between subway passenger flow and its corresponding Baidu Search Index at each time scale by an innovative multi–modal analysis strategy. Thirdly, we reconstruct the forecasting values of each selected optimal combination as the final results. The empirical results of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou show that the proposed model can significantly outperform six benchmark models in both the level and directional accuracy. So introducing Baidu Search Index creates a sound opportunity to enhance the subway passenger flow forecasting ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban road intersection bottleneck has become an important factor in causing traffic delay and restricting traffic efficiency. It is essential to explore the prediction of the operating performance at intersections in real-time and formulate corresponding strategies to alleviate intersection delay. However, because of the sophisticated intersection traffic condition, it is difficult to capture the intersection traffic Spatio-temporal features by the traditional data and prediction methods. The development of big data technology and the deep learning model provides us a good chance to address this challenge. Therefore, this paper proposes a multi-task fusion deep learning (MFDL) model based on massive floating car data to effectively predict the passing time and speed at intersections over different estimation time granularity. Moreover, the grid model and the fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering method are developed to identify the intersection area and derive a set of key Spatio-temporal traffic parameters from floating car data. In order to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, the floating car data from ten intersections of Beijing with a sampling rate of 3s are adopted for the training and test process. The experiment result shows that the MFDL model enables us to capture the Spatio-temporal and topology feature of the traffic state efficiently. Compared with the traditional prediction method, the proposed model has the best prediction performance. The interplay between these two targeted prediction variables can significantly improve prediction accuracy and efficiency. Thereby, this method predicts the intersection operation performance in real-time and can provide valuable insights for traffic managers to improve the intersection's operation efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]