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Many cities across the world are facing many problems climate change poses to their populations, communities and infrastructure. These vary from increased exposures to floods, to discomfort due to urban heat, depending on their geographical locations and settings. However, even though some cities have a greater ability to cope with climate change challenges, many struggle to do so, particularly in cities in developing countries. In addition, there is a shortage of international studies which examine the links between climate change adaptation and cities, and which at the same time draw some successful examples of good practice, which may assist future efforts. This paper is an attempt to address this information need. The aim of this paper is to analyse the extent to which cities in a sample of developing countries are attempting to pursue climate change adaptation and the problems which hinder this process. Its goal is to showcase examples of initiatives and good practice in transformative adaptation, which may be replicable elsewhere. To this purpose, the paper describes some trends related to climate change in a set of cities in developing countries across different continents, including one of the smallest capital cities (Georgetown, Guyana) and Shanghai, one the world's most populous cities. In particular, it analyses their degree of vulnerability, how they manage to cope with climate change impacts, and the policies being implemented to aid adaptation. It also suggests the use of transformative approaches which may be adopted, in order to assist them in their efforts towards investments in low-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure, thereby maximizing investments in urban areas and trying to address their related poverty issues. This paper addresses a gap in the international literature on the problems many cities in developing countries face, in trying to adapt to a changing climate. Unlabelled Image • Studies on adaptation challenges in developing cities are scarce. • Ageing and failing infrastructure limit cities' resilience. • There is a positive relationship between cities' income level and adaptation capacity. • Large population is not a barrier per se to a city's adaptation capacity. • Most cities lack local-level climate policies and programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been considerable progress in elucidating the physical aspects of climate change that directly impact food, feed, and fiber production. However, these impact assessments rarely account for climate induced changes associated with biological pests. The lack of collaboration between the pest management and climate science disciplines could be contributing to the problem. Therefore, we assessed research-based relationships, identifying possible barriers to and gaps in successful collaboration. We developed an algorithm capable of identifying author affiliation and associated disciplines. We found that pest management and climate scientists most often authored papers in their respective disciplines (>90%), but rarely in the opposing disciplines (<1%). Atopica, an international research group, is one of the few examples of how interdisciplinary collaborations have led to the co-production of knowledge to better understand and manage a pest responding to climate change. Researcher-to-researcher relationships, as demonstrated by Atopica, are an often overlooked area of science and key to solving major societal challenges. Unlabelled Image • A low number of published papers focus on both pest biology and climate change. • It is rare for individual authors to publish on both pest biology and climate change. • Few collaborative relationships exist between pest biologists and climate scientists. • The lack of collaboration is impacting our ability to solve societal problems associated with climate change and pests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of climate change on the availability and quality of both surface- and ground-water resources is well recognized nowadays. In particular, the mitigation of saline water intrusion mechanisms in coastal aquifers is a recurrent environmental issue. In the case of the Nile delta, the presence of sea level rise and the perspective of other human-induced stressors, such as the next operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, are threats to be taken into account for guaranteeing resilient agricultural practices within the future possible scenarios. Subsurface drainage offers a practical solution to the problem of upward artesian water movement and the simultaneous downward flow of excess irrigation water, to mitigate the salinization in the root zone. Subsurface draining systems can contribute to mitigate the vulnerability to climate change and to the increased anthropic pressure insofar they are able to receive the incremented flow rate due to the foreseen scenarios of sea level rise, recharge and subsidence. This paper introduces a rational design of subsurface drainage systems in coastal aquifers, taking into account the increment of flow in the draining pipes due to future possible conditions of sea level rise, artificial recharge and subsidence within time horizons that are compatible with the expected lifespan of a buried drainage system. The approach proposed in this paper is characterized by the assessment of the incremental flow through the drains as a function of various possible scenarios at different time horizons. Our calculations show that the impact on the discharge into the existing subsurface drainage system under the new foreseen conditions is anything but negligible. Thus, future climate-related scenarios deeply impact the design of such hydraulic structures, and must be taken into account in the frame of the next water management strategies for safeguarding agricultural activities in the Nile delta and in similar coastal contexts. Unlabelled Image • Subsurface drainage helps safeguarding agricultural activities from salinization. • Future climate scenarios deeply impact the design of such hydraulic structures. • Drained flow increased notably for sea level rise, augmented recharge and subsidence. • Artificial recharge can be used to counteract sea water intrusion. • Adversely, artificial recharge also affects the total flow in subsurface drains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper provides information on the impact of recent climate change on carbon sequestration in peatland systems in South West England. This is important because peatlands have the potential to sequester and hold large quantities of anthropogenically released CO 2. This paper investigates whether there has been a reduction in the strength of carbon sinks in a valley mire and blanket bog, which occur on the limits of the biogeographical envelop for peatlands in Britain. Past rates of carbon accumulation were calculated from peat depth and the sequential analysis of peat age, bulk density and carbon content from cores taken from valley mire and blanket bog. At the valley mire site contemporary net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was calculated by measuring inputs to the peat body, via net primary productivity (NPP), of Sphagna. Losses of C from the peat body were calculated by measuring CH 4 , and aquatic carbon, calculated from catchment export of particulate and dissolved organic carbon. The study found similar mean rates of carbon accumulation since 1850 of 11.26 t ± 0.68 t CO 2 e ha−1 yr−1 (307 g C m−2 yr−1) in valley mire and 11.77 t ± 0.88 t CO 2 e ha−1 yr−1 (321 g C m−2 yr−1) in blanket bog. The mean present-day CO 2 sequestration rate for Sphagna on valley mire was calculated to be 9.13 t ± 0.98 t CO 2 e ha−1 yr−1 (249 g C m−2 yr−1). Both past and contemporary rates of CO 2 sequestration were found to be at the maxima of those reported for temperate peatlands. NPP was found to vary according to microform with higher rates of carbon sequestration found in lawn and hummock microforms compared with pools. Our work suggests that recent changes in the climate appear to have had limited impact on the strength of peatland carbon sinks in South West England. Graphical abstract Net ecosystem carbon balance for three peatland microforms (2011–2015). Unlabelled Image Highlights • Mean rates of carbon accumulation since 1850 were 11.26 t ± 0.68 t CO 2 e ha−1 yr−1 for valley mire • Mean rates of carbon accumulation since 1850 were 11.77 t ± 0.88 t CO 2 e ha−1 yr−1 for blanket bog • Contemporary rate of CO 2 sequestration was 9.13 t ± 0.98 t CO 2 e ha−1 yr−1 • Past and contemporary peatland carbon sinks were found to be at the maxima of those reported for temperate peatlands [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Freshwater ecosystem services are negatively affected by factors such as climate change (e.g. changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise) and human interventions (e.g. agriculture practices, impoundment of dams, and land use/land cover change). Moreover, the potential synergic impacts of these factors on ecosystems are unevenly distributed, depending on geographical, climatic and socio-economic conditions. The paper aims to review the complex effects of climatic and non-climatic drivers on the supply and demand of freshwater ecosystem services. Based on the literature, we proposed a conceptual framework and a set of indicators for assessing the above-mentioned impacts due to global change, i.e. climate change and human activities. Then, we checked their applicability to the provisioning services of two well-known case studies, namely the Po River basin (Italy) and the Red River basin (Vietnam). To define the framework and the indicators, we selected the most relevant papers and reports; identified the major drivers and the most relevant services; and finally summarized the fundamental effects of these drivers on those services. We concluded that the proposed framework was applicable to the analyzed case studies, but it was not straightforward to consider all the indicators since ecosystem services were not explicitly considered as key assessment endpoints in these areas. Additionally, the supply of ecosystem services was found to draw much more attention than their demand. Finally, we highlighted the importance of defining a common and consistent terminology and classification of drivers, services, and effects to reduce mismatches among ecosystem services when conducting a risk assessment. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • We assessed the impacts of climate change and human activities on freshwater services. • Indicators and a conceptual framework of climatic/non-climatic effects are analyzed. • The literature focuses more on the provisioning and regulating services. • Consistent terminologies and classifications are needed for future risk assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Purpose This paper reviews the past and future trends of climate change in Malaysia, the major contributors of greenhouse gases and the impacts of climate change to Malaysia. It also reviews the mitigation and adaptations undertaken, and future strategies to manage the impacts of regional climate change. Methodology The review encompasses historical climate data comprising mean daily temperature, precipitation, mean sea level and occurrences of extreme weather events. Future climate projections have also been reviewed in addition to scholarly papers and news articles related to impacts, contributors, mitigation and adaptations in relation to climate change. Findings The review shows that annual mean temperature, occurrences of extreme weather events and mean sea level are rising while rainfall shows variability. Future projections point to continuous rise of temperature and mean sea level till the end of the 21st century, highly variable rainfall and increased frequency of extreme weather events. Climate change impacts particularly on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, coastal and marine resources, public health and energy. The energy and waste management sectors are the major contributors to climate change. Mitigation of and adaptations to climate change in Malaysia revolve around policy setting, enactment of laws, formulation and implementation of plans and programmes, as well as global and regional collaborations, particularly for energy, water resources, agriculture and biodiversity. There are apparent shortcomings in continuous improvement and monitoring of the programmes as well as enforcement of the relevant laws. Originality/value This paper presents a comprehensive review of the major themes of climate change in Malaysia and recommends pertinent ways forward to fill the gaps of mitigation and adaptations already implemented. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Surface temperatures, sea level and extreme weather events in Malaysia show increasing trends. • More emphasis has been placed on mitigation of climate change than adaptations. • Adaptation strategies which bridge the current gaps of adaptation are crucial. • The review calls for continual improvement of mitigation and adaptation programmes. • Stricter enforcement of laws and penalty is crucial for successful mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper describes the hydraulic performance of a start-up, pilot-scale, horizontal sub-surface flow constructed wetland (CW), located outdoors at the Helmholtz UFZ, Leipzig. This paper aims to investigate the impact of the method of hydraulic calculation in a pilot-scale system. Impulse-response tracer tests were conducted at multiple depths and locations throughout the system and the uranine concentration was measured using a fluorometer. In addition, the volumetric flow rate was closely monitored and climatic data was gathered to support the hydraulic results. Werner and Kadlec's modified residence time distribution (RTD) theory (originally developed for systems with large flow rate and volume fluctuations) was applied and the results compared to those obtained using classic RTD theory. Progressive uranine dispersion, broadening of the RTD base, a change in peak shape and extended tailing were observed with increasing distance. All of these factors indicated deviation from plug flow and mixing effects with low-to-moderate dead volume. As this was a non-steady flow system, application of modified RTD theory ensured that the first moments of the normalized breakthrough curves and RTD functions were always unity. The Student's t -test (95% confidence) showed that the outlet RTDs calculated assuming steady-flow were significantly different, but those determined using the modified theory were closely comparable. In general, a decrease in flow rate from inlet to outlet was observed and fluctuations in the outflow were linked to climatic conditions. August was characterized by the highest temperatures, high global radiation and high rates of evapotranspiration. Low or no outflow was recorded in conjunction with high evapotranspiration. The lowest temperatures, low global radiation, low evapotranspiration and high humidity were recorded in October, as well as the second highest rainfall (82 mm) after June (115 mm). Surges in outflow were observed with rain events. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Impulse-response tracer tests in a start-up, non-steady flow, pilot-scale HSSF CW • Fluctuations in outflow linked to vegetation and climatic conditions. • Comparison of results of classic RTD theory with Werner & Kadlec's modified method • Significant difference between outlet RTDs calculated using standard RTD theory. • Variable flow method should be used preferentially as outlet RTDs are comparable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview of the interrelationships between tourism and sustainability from a cross-disciplinary perspective. The current challenges and barriers in the tourism sustainability, such as high energy use, extensive water consumption and habitat destruction, are first reviewed. Then the key cross-disciplinary elements in sustainable tourism, including green energy, green transportation, green buildings, green infrastructure, green agriculture and smart technologies, are discussed. To overcome the challenges and barriers, a few implementation strategies on achieving sustainable tourism from the aspects of policy/regulation, institution, finance, technology and culture are proposed, along with the framework and details of a key performance indicator system. Finally, prospects of the potential for tourism to contribute to the transformative changes, e.g., a green economy system, are illustrated. This paper shine a light on issues of importance within sustainable tourism and encourage researchers from different disciplines in investigating the inter-relationships among community/culture, environment/ecology, and energy/water/food more broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the impact that changes in natural ecosystems can have on health and wellbeing focusing on the potential co-benefits that green spaces could provide when introduced as climate change adaptation measures. Ignoring such benefits could lead to sub-optimal planning and decision-making. A conceptual framework, building on the ecosystem-enriched Driver, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action model (eDPSEEA), is presented to aid in clarifying the relational structure between green spaces and human health, taking climate change as the key driver. The study has the double intention of (i) summarising the literature with a special emphasis on the ecosystem and health perspectives, as well as the main theories behind these impacts, and (ii) modelling these findings into a framework that allows for multidisciplinary approaches to the underlying relations between human health and green spaces. The paper shows that while the literature based on the ecosystem perspective presents a well-documented association between climate, health and green spaces, the literature using a health-based perspective presents mixed evidence in some cases. The role of contextual factors and the exposure mechanism are rarely addressed. The proposed framework could serve as a multidisciplinary knowledge platform for multi-perspecitve analysis and discussion among experts and stakeholders, as well as to support the operationalization of quantitative assessment and modelling exercises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the world argues about whether climate change is real, what if all systems are failing? This paper seeks to ignite further discussion concerning human impact on all aspects of our environment as we move further into the Anthropocene, not only in terms of the pressure we produce, but also how our activity changes the nature of the relationships between Earth's systems. The paper suggests that we currently lack the tools and analytical capacity to understand the significance of these changes and therefore we cannot answer the question, “are all systems failing?”. We discuss how complexity theory, complex networks, and Artificial Intelligence, could contribute part of a solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and socioeconomic factors have increased the complexity of urban water supply systems. Thus, fresh water sources are being gradually diversified to improve the reliability and resilience of the systems. However, as the number of source blending options grows, optimization tools are needed to design drinking water supply systems that comply with indicators of cost, resilience, and water quality. This paper proposes a pioneering methodological approach, based on an ant-colony-optimization (ACO) algorithm, to optimize the blending of drinking water from different sources to minimize operational costs of a given system originating from a number of impaired water sources while complying with water quality standards. To evidence the potential of the ACO algorithm to solve such a system, a virtual case study was designed that considers eight fresh water sources, including seawater desalination and potable reuse. Seven scenarios were developed with different weightings to service outage, water conveyance and treatment costs while complying with water quality goals in regard to total organic carbon, nitrates, and total dissolved solids. It was shown that the cost per volumetric unit of water can vary considerably depending on the weightings of the three cost items. This paper provides a rigorous scientific approach to propose a methodology supporting the decision-making process of selecting a mixture of different sources to achieve the overall lowest system cost. Hence, this work contributes to improving the resilience and sustainability of urban water supplies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue Fever (DF) has become one of the most serious infectious diseases in China. Dengue virus and its vector ( Aedes mosquito) are known to be sensitive to climate condition. Climate impacts DF through affecting three essential bioecological aspects: DF virus, vector (mosquito) and DF transmission environment. Weather-based DF model, mosquito model and climate model are the three pillars to help the prediction of DF distribution. Through a systematic review of literature between 1980 and 2017, this paper summarizes empirical evidences in China on the impact of climate change on DF; it further reviews the related DF incidence models and their findings on how changes in weather factors may impact DF occurrences in China. Compared with some well-known research projects in the western countries, there is a lack of knowledge in China regarding how the spatiotemporal distribution of DF will respond to climate change. However, being able to predict DF distribution is key to China's efforts to prevent and control DF transmission. We conclude this paper by recommending four focused areas for China: promoting more advanced research on the relationship between extreme weather events and DF, developing regional-specific models for the high risk regions of DF in south China, encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration between climate studies and health services, and enhancing public health education and management at national, regional and local levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several circulation models are forecasting climate changes in the Mediterranean region. Accordingly, it is expected that water scarcity in the region will be higher with drastic shifts of hydrological and erosive watershed responses. In Tunisia, wheat yields have been variable over the years and are lower than the potential yields. In response, the adoption of conservation agriculture (CA), introduced into Tunisia in 1999 to help adaptation to climate change, has resulted in a substantial reduction in agricultural productivity. CA areas increased from 52 ha in 1999 to 14,000 ha in 2015. Using a modelling approach, the present paper evaluates the potential of CA to adapt wheat-based-systems to climate change in Tunisia. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model was used to predict the effect of tillage (conventional tillage [CT] vs. zero-tillage [ZT] and soil residue retention [ZT-RR]) on wheat productivity and soil fertility. Two contrasting locations in Tunisia were studied; one semi-arid (Kef) and one sub-humid (Bizerte). Results showed that the sustainable production of durum wheat under climate change conditions in Tunisia is possible through the adoption of CA practices (ZT and ZT-RR) in both sub-humid and semi-arid areas. In fact, mulching (residue retention) is more effective than CT (under semi-arid and sub-humid conditions) in enhancing wheat yield (15%), water use efficiency (18% and 13%) and soil organic carbon accumulation (0.13 t ha−1 year−1 and 0.18 t ha−1 year−1). It is also more effective for soil resilience – preventing water erosion (1.7 t ha−1 year−1 and 4.6 t ha−1 year−1 of soil loss). The present study allowed identification of 260,000 ha as priority areas for CA adoption; this represent one-third of the total cereal area in Tunisia. Appropriate evaluation of the benefits of CA on sustainable agricultural intensification would provide more arguments for effectively supporting CA adoption in Tunisia. Unlabelled Image • 260,000 ha are mapped as a priority area for conservation agriculture implementation. • APSIM model is relevant to study the impact of conservation agriculture adoption. • Adoption of conservation agriculture contributes to the adaptation to climate change. • Conservation agriculture based on zero-till improves highly soil erosion resistance. • The wheat water use efficiency was the highest under zero-till with residue retention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this paper is to provide a forum for a broad interdisciplinary group of scientists and engineers to see how concepts of climate change, energy, and carbon remediation strategies are related to quite basic scientific principles. A secondary goal is to show relationships between general concepts in traditional science and engineering fields and to show how they are relevant to broader environmental concepts. This paper revisits Fourier's early mathematical derivation of the average temperature of the Earth from first principles, i.e. an energy balance common to chemical and environmental engineering. The work then uses the concept of mass balance to critically discuss various carbon remediation strategies. The work is of interest to traditional scientists/engineers, but also it is potentially useful as an educational document in advanced undergraduate science or engineering classes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is an essential component of the biogeochemical marine system, effecting biological and chemical reactions that take place in the sea. DOC represents a dynamic component of the global carbon cycle. This paper reports 25 years of measurements of DOC content and distribution at seven stations along the transect Po River delta – Rovinj in the northern Adriatic (NA). The results show strong temporal and spatial variability: (1) The highest average DOC concentrations were observed in 1998 and 2002 (143 μmol/L and 137 μmol/L, respectively); (2) The minimum average DOC was recorded in 2006 (88 μmol/L) and (3) The short-term DOC accumulation (up to 203, average 102 μmol/L) for the years 2009 to 2012, was observed during the summer and autumn months followed by unusually low DOC concentrations during the winter and spring. The DOC results from the more recent monitoring at the same stations indicate primarily oligotrophic characteristics of the NA seawater (88 μmol/L). The results of DOC variability and distribution in the NA appears to be strongly influenced by complex circulation patterns. This paper provides a “link” between the Ionian circulation and the NA ecosystem as a part of the recently identified Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS). A good agreement between the BiOS oscillation and other variables related to the DOC concentration, like the NA A and B winter types, the Po River discharge, salinity, chlorophyll a , occurrence of hypoxic-anoxic conditions, eutrophication and oligotrophication, suggests that DOC might be a good tool and indicator of global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a result of its rapid industrialization process, China has become the greatest emitter of carbon dioxide world-wide. Consequently, Shanghai – the most industrialized city in China – is facing serious challenges arising from carbon emissions and climate change in general. The main question of this paper is: How can Shanghai continue its economic growth, while controlling the negative consequences of its energy use and production in a responsible way? For the approach, it explores the use of the C40 framework, as an application and specification of new synergy seeking approaches, such as Value Sensitive Design. The C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group is a global city-level network to address climate change and promote world-class projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, a quantitative analysis of Shanghai's energy trends is made as well as a SWOT analysis to map and evaluate its current environmental, social, economic and political characteristics. Three main challenges are presented, related to institutional inclusiveness, global relations, and long-term innovation. In view of the initiatives, targets, and the whole network of the C40 movement, this paper concludes that Shanghai is strongly recommended to fully use the C40 framework in creating a sustainable and responsible future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the question of how to manage vulnerable coastal systems so as to make them sustainable under present and future climates. This is interpreted in terms of the coastal functionality, mainly natural services and support for socio-economic activities. From here we discuss how to adapt for long term trends and for short terms episodic events using the DPSIR framework. The analysis is presented for coastal archetypes from Spain, Ireland and Romania, sweeping a range of meteo-oceanographic and socio-economic pressures, resulting in a wide range of fluxes among them those related to sediment. The analysis emphasizes the variables that provide a higher level of robustness. That means mean sea level for physical factors and population density for human factors. For each of the studied cases high and low sustainability practices, based on stakeholders preferences, are considered and discussed. This allows proposing alternatives and carrying out an integrated assessment in the last section of the paper. This assessment permits building a sequence of interventions called adaptation pathway that enhances the natural resilience of the studied coastal systems and therefore increases their sustainability under present and future conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying and evaluating the factors that might impact on the long-term integrity of a deep Geological Disposal Facility (GDF) and its surrounding geological and surface environment is central to developing a safety case for underground disposal of radioactive waste. The geological environment should be relatively stable and its behaviour adequately predictable so that scientifically sound evaluations of the long-term radiological safety of a GDF can be made. In considering this, it is necessary to take into account natural processes that could affect a GDF or modify its geological environment up to 1 million years into the future. Key processes considered in this paper include those which result from plate tectonics, such as seismicity and volcanism, as well as climate-related processes, such as erosion, uplift and the effects of glaciation. Understanding the inherent variability of process rates, critical thresholds and likely potential influence of unpredictable perturbations represent significant challenges to predicting the natural environment. From a plate-tectonic perspective, a one million year time frame represents a very short segment of geological time and is largely below the current resolution of observation of past processes. Similarly, predicting climate system evolution on such time-scales, particularly beyond 200 ka AP is highly uncertain, relying on estimating the extremes within which climate and related processes may vary with reasonable confidence. The paper highlights some of the challenges facing a deep geological disposal program in the UK to review understanding of the natural changes that may affect siting and design of a GDF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human-perceived wind chill describes the combined effects of wind velocity and low temperature, strongly related to human health and natural environment. Although long-term trends in the air or ambient temperature over China under global warming have been well studied in the literature, the changes in human-perceived wind chill conditions, especially under possible urbanization effects, are still not completely known. This paper investigates the changes of wind chill over China and quantifies the associated urbanization effect by examining nearly 2000 meteorological stations during 1961–2014 using the generalized additive model (GAM). Results show that the winter wind chill temperature (WCT) in China exhibits more prominent raising trends than the air temperature, i.e., 0.623 and 0.349 °C per decade, respectively. The wind speed (V) and wind chill days (WCD) decreased by 0.149 m/s and 1.970 days per decade, respectively. These trends become more substantial in densely populated and highly urbanized areas such as the North China Plain. The expansion of urban built-up area induces additional warming (reducing) to the increase (decrease) in WCT (WCD). On average, an increase from 0% to 100% in the urban fraction induced 0.290 ± 0.067 °C higher WCT (± denotes the 95% confidence interval), along with a reduction in V and WCD by 0.052 ± 0.014 m/s and 3.513 ± 0.387 days, respectively; whereas, the presence of the grassland and forest significantly diminishes the WCT and increases the WCD and surface V. It is expected that wind chill over China tends to be weakened under glocal warming and local urbanization in the near future. Our results have important implications for climate change mitigation, urban planning, landscape design, and air pollution abatement. Unlabelled Image • Wind chill temperature in China increased at +0.623 °C/10 yr during 1961–2014. • Effects of urbanization on wind chill are assessed by the generalized additive model. • Expansion of urban built-up area significantly increases wind chill temperature. • A change in built-up from 0% to 100% induces additional warming of 0.29 ± 0.067 °C. • Urban grassland and forest decrease wind chill temperature and increase wind speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A healthy diet depends on the daily intake of vegetables. Yet, their environmental impacts along the full supply chains are scarcely known. Therefore, this paper provides for the first time a comprehensive evaluation of the life cycle environmental impacts of vegetables consumed in UK. The impacts are assessed for 56 fresh and processed products produced domestically and imported from abroad, considering both the product and sectoral levels. At the product level, taking into account the market mix of fresh and processed vegetables for each vegetable type sold in the UK, asparagus has the highest per-kg impacts across most of the 19 impact categories considered, while cabbage, celery and Brussels sprouts are generally environmentally most sustainable. At the sectoral level, the annual consumption of 10.8 t of vegetables generates 20.3 Mt CO 2 eq., consumes 260.7 PJ of primary energy and depletes 253 Mt eq. of water. The majority of the impacts are caused by potatoes since they account for 56% of the total amount of vegetables consumed, with crisps and frozen chips contributing most to the total impacts. Importing vegetables grown in unheated greenhouses in Europe has a lower impact than UK vegetables cultivated in heated greenhouses, despite the transportation. The impacts of air-freighted fresh vegetables are around five times higher than of those produced domestically. Even processed products have lower impacts than fresh air-freighted produce. Packaging also contributes significantly to the impacts, in particular glass jars and metal cans used for processed vegetables. Other significant hotspots are open display cabinets at the retailer and cooking of vegetables at home. The results of this study will be useful for food manufacturers, retailers and consumers, helping to identify improvement opportunities along vegetables supply chains. Unlabelled Image • Life cycle impacts are assessed for 56 vegetable products consumed in the UK. • Asparagus has the highest impacts across most of the 19 impact categories considered. • Cabbage, celery and Brussels sprouts are environmentally most sustainable. • Vegetables consumption generates 20.3 Mt CO 2 eq. and depletes 253 Mt eq. water/yr. • Air-freighted fresh vegetables have five times higher impacts than UK-grown produce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, a considerable amount of studies published locally which focused on the influence of age on climate change ability. Accordingly, this has driven the present study to achieve its main objective which is to compare the adaptation ability between youth and older fishermen. The current research is quantitative in nature; hence, a survey was conducted on a total of 259 youth and older fishermen residing in different states of Malaysia, namely Pulau Pinang, Terengganu, Johor, and Kedah. The present study managed to conclude a unique and important result which stated that youth and older fishermen within the context of Malaysia have an equally strong adaptation ability. In regard to this matter, a number of recommendations were presented at the end of this paper with the hope that it can act as a basis for future scholars to conduct more climate change related studies. Unlabelled Image • To compare the adaptation ability of youth and older fishermen • Youth and older fishermen have an equally strong adaptation ability. • Active dissemination and sharing of knowledge and experience • A greater access to livelihood diversification [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Motivated by progressive climate-change influence on ice degradation in caves, in this paper we present a novel methodology to investigate the link between air dynamics and ice melting. Specifically, we use surveys available for the Leupa ice cave (LIC), located in the Canin-Kanin group in the southeastern Alps and a general purpose computational fluid dynamics model (CFD). Detailed numerical simulations are evaluated on the basis of well-established approaches that consider domain, grid, boundary-conditions, turbulence closure models, buoyancy effects, porous media properties and verification with measured data. External atmospheric conditions are the main trigger for internal circulation but morphology and thermal characteristics of ice and bedrock induce a dynamical process of heat exchange ultimately responsible for ice melting. This process is generally poorly documented in real conditions. Using CFD analyses we show that both in summer and winter, warm and cold air currents within the cave are "disturbed" by several vortices and stagnation zones which locally modify the energy balance. To account for this we introduce a macroscopic physical model based on energy balance between ice surfaces and the inner ice cave airflow to determine the heat exchanged between ice and air. Using this model, a prediction of ice thickness decay over time is obtained. In the case of LIC a reduction of initial 4 cm per year is first obtained with projection of a much faster increase. The methodology is general and easily extendable to other sites, proving to be a powerful method to estimate ice evolution in caves induced by external and internal forcing. Highlights • The distribution and the volume of ground ice in Alpine caves remain stillunknown • In ice caves the airflow is often induced by temperature differences • Airflows within the ice cave locally modify the energy balance • The heat transfer with air is connected to the mass balance of perennial icedeposits • Climate change affects the level of ice within ice caves Graphical Abstract Unlabelled Image [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Fine-scale three-dimensional (3D) permafrost distributions at the basin scale are currently lacking. They are needed to monitor climate and ecosystem change and for the maintenance of infrastructure in cold regions. This paper determined the horizontal and vertical distributions of permafrost and its quantitative responses to climate warming in the High Asia region by constructing a quasi-3D model that couples heat transfer and water movement and is forced by spatially-interpolated air temperatures using an elevation-dependent regression method. Four air temperature scenarios were considered: the present state and air temperature increases of 1, 2 and 3 °C. A fine-scale permafrost map was constructed. The map considered taliks and local factors including elevation, slope and aspect, and agreed well with field observations. Permafrost will experience severe degradation with climate warming, with decreases in area of 36% per degree increase in air temperature, increases in the depth-to-permafrost table of 2.67 m per degree increase in air temperature, and increases in 15 m-depth ground temperatures of 1.25 °C per degree increase in air temperature. Permafrost is more vulnerable in and beside river valleys than in high mountains, and on sunny rather than shady slopes. These results provide an effective reference for permafrost prediction and infrastructure and ecosystem management in cold regions affected by global warming. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • To know the fine 3D distribution of permafrost at the basin scale is still difficult. • A process-based, distributed numerical model was applied against warming climate. • The permafrost will degrade severely with the area decreasing rate as 36%/°C. • The sensitivity of permafrost to warming is higher in low land areas than mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Human activities and climate change are two key factors influencing the variation of the total amount of available surface and groundwater, hereafter termed water resources. Quantitatively separating their impacts remains a challenge. To this end, we used time-varying Budyko-type equations and a hierarchical Bayesian model in this paper to separate their impacts in 31 provincial-level divisions of China. The time-varying Budyko-type equations treat the Budyko equation parameter w as a variable, which depends on human activities (represented by per capita gross regional production) and climate change (represented by temperature and precipitation). The hierarchical model quantifies the uncertainty of parameters and the interrelation between covariates across regions in China. The results show that the time-varying Budyko-type equation can improve the fitting capability for water resources in China. The hierarchical Bayesian model, which considered spatial dependence, reduced the uncertainty of the parameters compared to spatially independent counterparts. For most regions of China, human activities reduce water resources while climate change increases them. Southeastern China is the most influenced area, and its water resources decreased approximately 50 mm because of human activities. This study can provide a basis for water resource management under climate change and human activity constraints in China. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Budyko-type equations with time-varying parameters were verified in China. • A hierarchical Bayesian model considering spatial correlation was established. • Water resources decreased because of human activities for most regions of China. • Climate change caused water resources to increase for most regions of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Convenience is one of the main determinants of modern society where products, such as ready-made meals, play a key role. However, the continuing growth of this market has raised environmental concerns, which have not been well studied yet. This paper evaluates life cycle environmental impacts of meals consumed in the UK, the second largest consumer of ready-made meals in the world, after the US. Thirteen representative ready-made meals are evaluated in the British, Italian, Chinese and Indian cuisines, considering variations in recipes found on the market, as well as different meat replacement options. The results suggest that environmentally the most sustainable meal option is pork roast dinner while the worst alternatives are spaghetti Bolognese, cottage pie, lamb masala curry and lasagne. For example, the global warming potential of pork roast is 2.1 kg CO 2 eq. and that of lasagne 5 kg CO 2 eq. The ingredients contribute >50% to the impacts, followed by the distribution (~14%) and manufacturing (~12%) stages. Using seitan or soy granules as meat replacements improves five out of 11 impacts considered, including global warming potential, by up to 27%; the other impacts are largely unaffected. However, if tofu is used, four impacts are improved while four others are worsened. The annual consumption of ready-made meals in the UK accounts for GHG emissions of 12.89 Mt. CO 2 eq., equivalent to emissions of a whole country, such as Jamaica. This contributes 15% to the emissions from the UK food and drink sector. It also represents 8% and 15% of the personal carbon budgets for food related to climate targets of 2 °C and 1.5 °C, respectively. The results of the study will be of interest to both food manufacturers and consumers, showing how their choices affect the environmental sustainability of this fast-growing sector. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Roast dinners, especially pork, have the lowest environmental impacts. • Spaghetti Bolognese, cottage pie and lamb curry exhibit the highest impacts. • A third of meat substituted by meat replacements reduces impacts by up to up to 27%. • Annual ready-made meal consumption in the UK generates 13 Mt. CO 2 eq. • This represents up to 15% of personal carbon budgets related to food intake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Crop yields (Y) and virtual water content (VWC) of agricultural production are affected by climate variability and change, and are highly dependent on geographical location, crop type, specific planting and harvesting practice, soil property and moisture, hydro-geologic and climate conditions. This paper assesses and analyzes historical (1985–2009) and future (2040–2064) Y and VWC of three cereal crops (i.e., wheat, barley, and canola) with high spatial resolution in the highly intensive agricultural region of Alberta, Canada, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). A calibrated and validated SWAT hydrological model is used to supplement agricultural (rainfed and irrigation) models to simulate Y and crop evapotranspiration (ET) at the sub-basin scales. The downscaled climate projections from nine General Climate Models (GCMs) for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios are fed into the calibrated SWAT model. Results from an ensemble average of GCMs show that Y and VWC are projected to change drastically under both RCPs. The trade (export-import) of wheat grain from Alberta to more than a hundred countries around the globe led to the annual saving of ~5 billion m3 of virtual water (VW) during 1996–2005. Based on the weighted average of VWC for both rainfed and irrigated conditions, future population and consumption, our projections reveal an annual average export potential of ~138 billion m3 of VW through the flow of these cereal crops in the form of both grain and other processed foods. This amount is expected to outweigh the total historical provincial water yield of 66 billion m3 and counts for 47% of total historical precipitation and 61% of total historical actual ET. The research outcome highlights the importance of local high-resolution inputs in regional modeling and understanding the local to global water-food trade policy for sustainable agriculture. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • A locally adapted framework is developed to model cereal crops. • Climate change impacts are assessed on yield (Y) and virtual water content (VWC). • Y and VWC of crops are projected to increase and decrease, respectively. • A high virtual water export is projected that outweighs historical water renewals. • Local to global water-food trade policy should be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Climate change is significantly impacting lotic environments, through changes to hydrology, biodiversity and species distribution. Effects of climate change are greatest at high elevation and biota in and around glacier-fed rivers is likely, therefore, to be at great risk. How climate change influences hydrology will have great impact on river water temperature as glacier-fed rivers in Alpine environments are extremely sensitive to climatic change. This paper assesses five rivers: Four glacier-fed rivers (36.9–83.7% basin glacierisation) located in the Swiss Alps, and one located in an ice-free catchment in the Bernese Oberland, Switzerland. The aim was to assess the impact of basin characteristics on river water temperature. A distinct paradoxical relationship was identified whereby water temperature in some glacier-fed rivers was reduced during the time of highest incoming shortwave radiation receipts and high air temperature. Whether a summer cooling effect presented itself in all glacier-fed rivers within this study was researched. The key findings were that the identified summer cooling effect was not present in all rivers, despite percentage glacierisation. Percentage glacier cover has often been reported as they key determiner of water temperature in such rivers. More important was the stream dimensions, notably stream surface area. Understanding the controlling factors that influence water temperature of glacier-fed rivers will help river managers and planners in understanding how climate change will affect fisheries downstream of glaciers over the coming decades. This may allow plans to be introduced to try and mitigate warmer water temperature that will result, in some glacier-fed rivers, as the climate warms. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Glacier cover not determiner of temperature in rivers draining glaciated basins. • Stream surface area best determines water temperature in Swiss glacier-fed rivers. • Glacier-fed rivers have a unique seasonal temperature regime. • Glacier cover is a surrogate for stream surface area in glacier-fed river systems. • Despite increasing flow, some glacier-fed rivers will warm due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In this paper, the hydrological impacts of future socio-economic and climatic development are assessed for a regional-scale Alpine catchment (Brixental, Tyrol, Austria). Therefore, coupled storylines of future land use and climate scenarios were developed in a transdisciplinary stakeholder process by means of questionnaire analyses and interviews with local experts from various relevant societal sectors. Resulting future land use maps for each decade were used as spatial input in the hydrological model WaSiM, to which a new module for the consideration of snow-canopy interaction processes has been added. Simulation results for three developed storylines, each combined with a moderate (A1B) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate future, show that in a warmer and dryer climate the amount of annual simulated streamflow at the gauge of the catchment undergoes a significant reduction. The (mainly natural) reforestation of the catchment – caused by abandonment of previously cultivated areas – leads to additional losses of water by enhanced interception and evapotranspiration processes. Further cultivation of the current mountain pasture areas has a certain potential to attenuate undesirable long-term impacts of climate change on the catchment water balance. Graphical abstract Inter- and transdisciplinary development of storylines of combined future land use and climate scenarios and their hydrological impacts in an Alpine catchment. Unlabelled Image Highlights • We have combined scenarios of climate and land use change to so-called "storylines" of future local development • Local experts from various societal sectors and scientists organized themselves in a mutual learning alliance • A numerical hydrological model was used to quantify the effects of the storylines on the local water cycle • A new version of the open-source hydrological model WaSiM is developed, including snow-canopy interaction processes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Exposure to extreme heat can lead to a range of heat-related illnesses, exacerbate pre-existing health conditions and cause increased demand on the healthcare system. A projected increase in temperature may lead to greater healthcare expenditure, however, at present the costs of heat-related healthcare utilization is under-researched. This study aims to review the literature on heat-related costs for the healthcare system with a focus on ED visits, hospitalization, and ambulance call-outs. PubMed, Scopus, and Embase were used to search relevant literature from database inception to December 2017 and limited to human studies and English language. After screening, a total of ten papers were identified for final inclusion. In general, the healthcare costs of heat extremes have been poorly investigated in developed countries and not reported in developing countries where the largest heat-vulnerable populations reside. Studies showed that exposure to extreme heat was causing a substantial economic burden on healthcare systems. Females, the elderly, low-income families, and ethnic minorities had the highest healthcare costs on a range of health services utilization. Although a few studies have estimated heat healthcare costs, none of them quantified the temperature-healthcare cost relationship. There is a need to systematically examine heat-attributable costs for the healthcare system in the context of climate change to better inform heat-related policy making, target interventions and resource allocation. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Heat exposure was causing a substantial economic burden on healthcare systems. • Heat attributable healthcare costs are likely to increase in a changing climate. • Females, the elderly, and low income groups had the highest heat healthcare costs. • More evidence is needed for the evaluation of heat attributable healthcare costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Water scarcity in the Mediterranean region is becoming a growing concern, threatening the viability of agriculture, which is one of the main economic sectors in many areas. The design of an optimal irrigation management plan, based on state-of-the-art measuring and modeling tools, can effectively contribute towards water saving efforts and potentially address the water scarcity issue in the region. This paper describes the development and application of an integrated decision-making system for the management of water resources of olive and citrus crops in the North of Chania, Crete, Greece. The system integrates different field measurements, for example 2088 soil moisture measurements taken within the study area, and modeling approaches to simulate flow in the unsaturated zone. After the successful calibration and validation of the model, the spatio-temporal representation of soil moisture and pore water pressure were used as guidance for developing optimal irrigation plans, taking into account the water needs of olive and citrus crops, aiming to maximize crop yield, agricultural income, and promote water saving efforts. According to the results, water use can be reduced by up to 36% during the dry season, compared to conventional irrigation practices for citrus trees. Similarly, for olive trees, the reduction in water use can reach up to 41%. The proposed methodology can also be cost-effective in terms of water value, saving about 40% from the typical water cost for irrigation in the study area. The impact of climate change on water resources availability in the area and water conservation efforts were also investigated for the period of (2019–2030). Results show that, comparing the Baseline, RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 climatic scenarios, the highest savings on average are observed for emission scenario RCP 4.5 with 53.3% water savings for olive trees and 46.7% for citrus trees. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • A new decision-making tool for agricultural water management is introduced • Field measurements and modeling tools were used to predict pore water pressure variations • Guidance tools for cost-effective irrigation based on pressure thresholds were developed • Water use can be reduced by up to 41% compared to conventional irrigation practices • The highest water savings are observed for scenario RCP 4.5 during the studied period [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Over the last decades, traditional olive production has been converted to intensive and super-intensive cultivation systems, characterized by high plant density and irrigation. Although this conversion improves product quality and quantity, it requires a larger amount of energy input. The new contributions in this paper are, first, an analysis of the energy and environmental performance of two commercial-scale high peak-power hybrid photovoltaic irrigation systems (HPVIS) installed at intensive and super-intensive Mediterranean olive orchards; second, an analysis of PV hybrid solutions, comparing PV hybridization with the electric power grid and with diesel generators; and finally, a comparison of the environmental benefits of HPVIS with conventional power sources. Energy and environmental performances were assessed through energy and carbon payback times (EPBT and CPBT). The results show EPBT of 1.98 and 4.58 years and CPBT of 1.86 and 9.16 years for HPVIS in Morocco and Portugal, respectively. Moreover, the HPVIS were able to achieve low emission rates, corresponding to 48 and 103 g CO 2 e per kWh generated. The EPBT and CPBT obtained in this study were directly linked with the irrigation schedules of the olive orchards; therefore, weather conditions and irrigation management may modify the energy and environmental performances of HPVIS. The consumption of grid electricity and diesel fuel, before and after the implementation of HPVIS, was also analyzed. The results obtained show fossil energy savings of 67% for the Moroccan farm and 41% for the Portuguese installation. These savings suggest that the energy produced by HPVIS in olive orchards will avoid the emissions of a large amount of greenhouse gas and the exploitation of natural resources associated with fossil fuel production. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Life cycle assessment approach was used to evaluate hybrid PV irrigation systems. • PV plants were exclusively devoted to supply energy to Mediterranean olive orchards. • The HPVIS CO 2 emissions rates were 48 and 103 gCO 2 e per kWh. • The PV plants allowed to save among 41 and 67% of the energy previously consumed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Climate impacts and adaptation studies often use output from impact models that require data representing future climates at a resolution greater than can be provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs). This paper describes the use of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to generate high-resolution future climate information for assessing climate impacts in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) and Mahanadi deltas as part of the DECCMA project. In this study, three different GCMs (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5 and GFDL-CM3), all using a single scenario for future greenhouse forcing of the atmosphere (RCP 8.5), were downscaled to a horizontal resolution of 25 km over south Asia using the HadRM3P RCM. These three GCMs were selected based on ability to represent key climate processes over south Asia and ability to sample a range of regional climate change responses to greenhouse gas forcing. RCM simulations of temperature, precipitation, and lower level (850 hPa) atmospheric circulation in the monsoon season (June, July, August, September – JJAS) were compared with observational datasets and their respective driving GCMs to ensure large-scale consistency. Although there are some biases in the RCM simulations, these comparisons indicate that the RCMs are able to simulate realistically aspects of the observed climate of South Asia, such as the monsoon circulation and associated precipitation that are key for informing downstream impacts and adaptation studies. Simulated future temperature and precipitation changes on seasonal and daily timescales suggest increases in both temperature and precipitation across all three models during the monsoon season, with an increase in the amount of extremely heavy precipitation over the GBM and Mahanadi basins. Despite different driving conditions, these results are consistent across all three RCM simulations, providing a level of confidence in the magnitudes and spatial characteristics of temperature and precipitation projections for South Asia. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Successfully generated a novel, high-resolution climate dataset over South Asia. • This dataset is fit for purpose in downstream impacts modelling and adaptation work. • Results suggest an increase in temperature, monsoon strength and rainfall. • RCMs suggest increased risk of widespread flooding during the monsoon season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In this paper, we present an assessment of the sensitivity of groundwater-surface water interactions to climate change in an alluvial aquifer, located in the Ljubljansko polje, Slovenia. The investigation is motivated by a recent assessment of climate change pressures on the water balance in the Sava River Basin (Gampe et al., 2016). The assessment was performed using a comprehensive hydrological modelling approach, which is based on the direct/indirect communication between FEFLOW and WaSiM/MIKE 11. This modelling framework provides a precise simulation of the critical processes in the study domain, which are the main drivers influencing the interactions between precipitation, river water and groundwater under different future climate scenarios. Climate projections were based on the results of the three regional climate models SMHI-RCA4, KNMI-RACMO22E and CLMcom-CCLM4. The results show that there will be higher levels of local precipitation during 2036–2065, the projected river discharge will be larger in the future compared to 2000–2014, and it is unlikely that the Ljubljansko polje will suffer from water scarcity. In addition, amongst the various sections of the Sava River the section between Črnuče and Šentjakob is the one most sensitive to climate change. By running the models under different climate scenarios a deeper insight into aquifer system functioning was obtained. Investigating impacts of climate change on groundwater and interactions between surface water and groundwater on the local scale is a basis for applying such a study on the global scale, which was still not very well investigated. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Impacts of projected climate on surface-groundwater interactions are presented. • The aquifer's sensitivity to the climate is higher if one water source dominates. • The Ljubljansko polje is not going to suffer due to water scarcity (2036–2065). • A comprehensive modelling tool approach was applied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Deltas are especially vulnerable to climate change given their low-lying location and exposure to storm surges, coastal and fluvial flooding, sea level rise and subsidence. Increases in such events and other circumstances are contributing to the change in the environmental conditions in the deltas, which translates into changes in the productivity of ecosystems and, ultimately, into impacts on livelihoods and human well-being. Accordingly, climate change will affect not only the biophysical conditions of deltaic environments but also their economic circumstances. Furthermore, these economic implications will spill over to other regions through goods and services supply chains and via migration. In this paper we take a wider view about some of the specific studies within this Special Issue. We analyse the extent to which the biophysical context of the deltas contributes to the sustainability of the different economic activities, in the deltas and in other regions. We construct a set of environmental-extended multiregional input-output databases and Social Accounting Matrices that are used to trace the flow of provisioning ecosystem services across the supply chains, providing a view of the links between the biophysical environment and the economic activities. We also integrate this information into a Computable General Equilibrium model to assess how the changes in the provision of natural resources due to climate change can potentially affect the economies of the deltas and linked regions, and how this in turn affects economic vulnerability and sustainability in these regions. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Biophysical (several models)-socioeconomics (CGE) link established through models. • Key parameters are the rates (interest, depreciation) and trade assumptions. • Cumulative GDP pc ↓ ~2.1% with Climate change shock (CChS) on crops for Mahanadi. • Cumulative GDP pc ↓ ~10% (↓ 0.27% India) with CChS on crop+ fishery + infrastructure. • Effective adaptation options of seeds & fertilizers, cyclone shelters and embankments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In view of risk assessments this paper proposes a stochastic diffusion model to characterise statistics of extreme events when climate- or environmental variables surpass critical thresholds. The proposed three-factor model captures trend and volatility of such statistics and could prove valuable for climate and environmental impact analysis in many systems such as human health, agriculture or ecology. The model supports decisions in view of lowering risks to acceptable levels. We illustrate the development of the model for heatwave impacts on human health in the context of climate change. We propose a generic model composed of three random processes characterising annual statistics of heatwaves: a Poisson process characterising the number of heatwaves, a Gamma process characterising mean duration and a truncated Gaussian process capturing mean excess temperature of heatwave days. Additionally, potential correlations between the three processes are taken into account. The model is calibrated with data obtained from a regional climate model for two cities in Spain. The suitability of the model for probabilistic analysis is tested with Monte Carlo simulations. We assess the time-dependent probability distributions of heatwave-related mortality and demonstrate how to obtain relevant risk metrics such as the 95th percentile and the average of the 5% of worst cases (ES (95%)). Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Probabilistic assessment of evolution of annual characteristics of heatwaves • Stochastic diffusion models to represent annual statistics of heatwaves • Long-term high-resolution time series contain information on stochasticity. • Assessment of human health impacts from heatwaves in the context of climate change • Risk metrics such as Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sediment load on the Chinese Loess Plateau has sharply decreased in recent years. However, the contribution of terrace construction and vegetation restoration projects to sediment discharge reduction remains uncertain. In this paper, eight catchments located in the Loess Plateau were chosen to explore the effects of different driving factors on sediment discharge changes during the period from the 1960s to 2012. Attribution approaches were applied to evaluate the effects of climate, terrace, and vegetation coverage changes on sediment discharge. The results showed that the annual sediment discharge decreased significantly in all catchments ranging from −0.007 to −0.039 Gt·yr −1 . Sediment discharge in most tributaries has shown abrupt changes since 1996, and the total sediment discharge was reduced by 60.1% during 1997–2012. We determined that increasing vegetation coverage was the primary factor driving the reductions in sediment loads since 1996 and accounted for 47.7% of the total reduction. Climate variability and terrace construction accounted for 9.1% and 18.6% of sediment discharge reductions, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind-driven rain (WDR) is rain given a horizontal velocity component by wind and falling obliquely. It is a prominent environmental risk to built heritage, as it contributes to the damage of porous building materials and building element failure. While predicted climate trends are well-established, how they will specifically manifest in future WDR is uncertain. This paper combines UKCP09 Weather Generator predictions with a probabilistic process to create hourly time series of climate parameters under a high-emissions scenario for 2070–2099 at eight UK sites. Exposure to WDR at these sites for baseline and future periods is calculated from semi-empirical models based on long-term hourly meteorological data using ISO 15927-3:2009. Towards the end of the twenty-first century, it is predicted that rain spells will have higher volumes, i.e. a higher quantity of water will impact façades, across all 8 sites. Although the average number of spells is predicted to remain constant, they will be shorter with longer of periods of time between them and more intense with wind-driven rain occurring for a greater proportion of hours within them. It is likely that in this scenario building element failure – such as moisture ingress through cracks and gutter over-spill – will occur more frequently. There will be higher rates of moisture cycling and enhanced deep-seated wetting. These predicted changes require new metrics for wind-driven rain to be developed, so that future impacts can be managed effectively and efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deltas are home to a large and growing proportion of the world's population, often living in conditions of extreme poverty. Deltaic ecosystems are ecologically significant as they support high biodiversity and a variety of fisheries, however these coastal environments are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (Bangladesh/India), the Mahanadi (India), and the Volta (Ghana) are among the most important and populous delta regions in the world and they are all considered at risk of food insecurity and climate change. The fisheries sector is vital for populations that live in the three deltas, as a source of animal protein (in Bangladesh and Ghana around 50–60% of animal protein is supplied by fish while in India this is about 12%) through subsistence fishing, as a source of employment and for the wider economy. The aquaculture sector shows a rapid growth in Bangladesh and India while in Ghana this is just starting to expand. The main exported species differ across countries with Ghana and India dominated by marine fish species, whereas Bangladesh exports shrimps and prawns. Fisheries play a more important part in the economy of Bangladesh and Ghana than for India, both men and women work in fisheries, with a higher proportion of women in the Volta then in the Asian deltas. Economic and integrated modelling using future scenarios suggest that changes in temperature and primary production could reduce fish productivity and fisheries income especially in the Volta and Bangladesh deltas, however these losses could be mitigated by reducing overfishing and improving management. The analysis provided in this paper highlights the importance of applying plans for fisheries management at regional level. Minimizing the impacts of climate change while increasing marine ecosystems resilience must be a priority for scientists and governments before these have dramatic impacts on millions of people's lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A heat pump combined with Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) is proven technology to economically and sustainably provide space heating and cooling. The two most important preconditions for the applicability of ATES are favorable climatic conditions and the availability of a suitable aquifer. This paper shows how these two preconditions can be combined to identify where in the world ATES potential is present, or will become present as a consequence of climate change. Countries and regions are identified where regulation and stimulation measures may increase application of ATES technologies and thus help reduce CO 2 -emissions. Two types of data determine ATES suitability, and their combination with a 3rd identifies potential hot-spots in the world: 1) geo-hydrological conditions, 2) current and projected climate classification and 3) urbanization. Our method combines the data into an ATES-suitability score as explained in this paper. On the one hand the results confirm the suitability for ATES where it is already applied and on the other they identify places where the technology is or will become suitable. About 15% of urban population lived in areas with high potential for ATES at the start of the 21st century, but this figure will decrease to about 5% during the 21st century as a consequence of expected climate change. Around 50% of urban population currently lives in areas of medium ATES suitability, a percentage that will remain constant. Demand for ATES is likely to exceed available subsurface space in a significant part of the urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the frame of a national, joint scientific appraisal, 45 scientific French-speaking experts have been mandated in 2015–2016 by the French ministries of Environment and Agriculture to perform a global review of scientific literature dealing with the eutrophication phenomenon, in freshwater as well as in marine waters. This paper summarizes the main results of this review restricted to a sub-domain, the modelling approach of the marine eutrophication. After recalling the different aims pursued, an overview is given on the historical time course of this modelling effort, its world distribution and the various tools used. Then, the main results obtained are examined, highlighting the specific strengths and weaknesses of the present models. Needs for future improvement are then listed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multisectoral partnerships are increasingly cited as a mechanism to deliver and improve disaster risk management. Yet, partnerships are not a panacea and more research is required to understand the role that they can play in disaster risk management and particularly disaster risk reduction. This paper investigates how partnerships can incentivise flood risk reduction by focusing on the UK public-private partnership on flood insurance. Developing the right flood insurance arrangements to incentivise flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change is a key challenge. In the face of rising flood risks due to climate change and socio-economic development insurance partnerships can no longer afford to focus only on the risk transfer function. However, while expectations of the insurance industry have traditionally been high when it comes to flood risk management, the insurance industry alone will not provide the solution to the challenge of rising risks. The case of flood insurance in the UK illustrates this: even national government and industry together cannot fully address these risks and other actors need to be involved to create strong incentives for risk reduction. Using an agent-based model focused on surface water flood risk in London we analyse how other partners could strengthen the insurance partnership by reducing flood risk and thus helping to maintain affordable insurance premiums. Our findings are relevant for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and also internationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Debates of the nexus between water-related stresses and water availability for groundwater-dependent irrigation which comprises of non-conventional groundwater abstraction schemes is only recently emerging. The interaction between Seasonal Shallow Wells (SSWs), one of such indigenous abstractions scheme and groundwater recharge remains new to groundwater science and development. The SSWs supplement formal irrigation (e.g. reservoirs) and surface water for dry season agriculture in Ghana's White Volta Basin, yet links with the overall gradient of groundwater is unknown. Therefore, using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model and qualitative techniques, the implications of groundwater recharge and surface runoff in their orientation to shallow wells is explored. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) from a regional downscale model for droughts and floods showed increased drought and flood influence on groundwater recharge and irrigation. Enhanced surface runoff water and climate change continuously reduced groundwater recharge by 2030, with decreased stream and water inflows. Irrigation water requirements of reservoirs were computed to be between 173% and 327% of normal reservoir water requirements, yet majority of dams did not meet these requirements especially during the dry season. The basin has history of dryness and exhibited uneven distribution of groundwater, yet recharged water of unsaturated soil moisture zones made water available to the SSWs. The SSWs were patronised mostly by women and farming households based on perceptions of limited cost, less sophistication and no formal regulatory measures. The paper therefore provides framework for establishing links between the mechanics of SSWs, and existing climatic and hydrologic conditions for informed groundwater development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and human activities have changed the spatial-temporal distribution of water resources, especially in a fragile ecological area such as the upper reaches of the Minjiang River (UMR) basin, where they have had a more profound effect. The average of double-mass curve (DMC) and Distributed Time-Variant Gain Hydrological Model (DTVGM) are applied to distinguish between the impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources in this paper. Results indicated that water resources decreased over nearly 50 years in the UMR. At the annual scale, contributions of human activities and climate change to changes in discharge were −77% and 23%, respectively. In general, human activities decreased the availability of water resources, whereas climate change increased the availability of water resources. However, the impacts of human activities and climate change on water resources availability were distinctly different on annual versus seasonal scales, and they showed more inconsistency in summer and autumn. The main causes of decreasing water resources are reservoir regulation, and water use increases due to population growth. The results of this study can provide support for water resource management and sustainable development in the UMR basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP–SSP–SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 1 DECCMA ( DEltas , vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation ) project is part of the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. For more information, visit the project website: http://www.geodata.soton.ac.uk/deccma/ . project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention , Economic capacity expansion , System efficiency enhancement , and System restructuring , which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deltas are precarious environments experiencing significant biophysical, and socio-economic changes with the ebb and flow of seasons (including with floods and drought), with infrastructural developments (such as dikes and polders), with the movement of people, and as a result of climate and environmental variability and change. Decisions are being taken about the future of deltas and about the provision of adaptation investment to enable people and the environment to respond to the changing climate and related changes. The paper presents a framework to identify options for, and trade-offs between, long term adaptation strategies in deltas. Using a three step process, we: (1) identify current policy-led adaptations actions in deltas by conducting literature searches on current observable adaptations, potential transformational adaptations and government policy; (2) develop narratives of future adaptation policy directions that take into account investment cost of adaptation and the extent to which significant policy change/political effort is required; and (3) explore trade-offs that occur within each policy direction using a subjective weighting process developed during a collaborative expert workshop. We conclude that the process of developing policy directions for adaptation can assist policy makers in scoping the spectrum of options that exist, while enabling them to consider their own willingness to make significant policy changes within the delta and to initiate transformative change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines drought characteristics as an evidence of climate change in two agro-climatic zones of Nigeria and farmers' climate change perceptions of impacts and adaptation strategies. The results show high spatial and temporal rainfall variability for the stations. Consequently, there are several anomalies in rainfall in recent years but much more in the locations around the Guinea savanna. The inter-station and seasonality statistics reveal less variable and wetter early growing seasons and late growing seasons in the Rainforest zone, and more variable and drier growing seasons in other stations. The probability ( p ) of dry spells exceeding 3, 5 and 10 consecutive days is very high with 0.62 ≤ p ≥ 0.8 in all the stations, though, the p -values for 10 day spells drop below 0.6 in Ibadan and Osogbo. The results further show that rainfall is much more reliable from the month of May until July with the coefficient of variance for rainy days <0.30, but less reliable in the months of March, August and October (CV-RD > 0.30), though CV-RD appears higher in the month of August for all the stations. It is apparent that farmers' perceptions of drought fundamentally mirror climatic patterns from historical weather data. The study concludes that the adaptation facilities and equipment, hybrids of crops and animals are to be provided to farmers, at a subsidized price by the government, for them to cope with the current condition of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amount of carbon uptake by vegetation is an important component to understand the functioning of ecosystem processes and their response/feedback to climate. Recently, a new diagnostic model called the Southampton Carbon Flux (SCARF) Model driven by remote sensing data was developed to predict terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) and successfully applied in temperate regions. The model is based on the concept of quantum yield of plants and improves on the previous diagnostic models by (i) using the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation absorbed by the photosynthetic pigment (FAPAR ps ) and (ii) using direct quantum yield by classifying the vegetation into C 3 or C 4 classes. In this paper, we calibrated and applied the model to evaluate GPP across various ecosystems in Africa. The performance of the model was evaluated using data from seven eddy covariance flux tower sites. Overall, the modelled GPP values showed good correlation ( R > 0.59, p < 0.0001) with estimated flux tower GPP at most sites (except at a tropical rainforest site, R = 0.38, p = 0.02 ) in terms of their seasonality and absolute values. Mean daily GPP across the investigated period varied significantly across sites depending on the vegetation types from a minimum of 0.44 g C m −2 day −1 at the semi-arid and sub-humid savanna grassland sites to a maximum of 9.86 g C m −2 day −1 at the woodland and tropical rain forest sites. Generally, strong correlation is observed in savanna woodlands and grasslands where vegetation follows a prescribed seasonal cycle as determined by changes in canopy chlorophyll content and leaf area index. Finally, the mean annual GPP value for Africa predicted by the model was 35.25 Pg C yr −1 . The good performance of the SCARF model in water-limited ecosystems across Africa extends its potential for global application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objectives Public health co-benefits from curbing climate change can make greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies more attractive and increase their implementation. The purpose of this systematic review is to summarize the evidence of these health co-benefits to improve our understanding of the mitigation measures involved, potential mechanisms, and relevant uncertainties. Methods A comprehensive search for peer-reviewed studies published in English was conducted using the primary electronic databases. Reference lists from these articles were reviewed and manual searches were performed to supplement relevant studies. The identified records were screened based on inclusion criteria. We extracted data from the final retrieved papers using a pre-designed data extraction form and a quality assessment was conducted. The studies were heterogeneities, so meta-analysis was not possible and instead evidence was synthesized using narrative summaries. Results Thirty-six studies were identified. We identified GHG mitigation strategies in five domains – energy generation, transportation, food and agriculture, households, and industry and economy – which usually, although not always, bring co-benefits for public health. These health gains are likely to be multiplied by comprehensive measures that include more than one sectors. Conclusions GHG mitigation strategies can bring about substantial and possibly cost-effective public health co-benefits. These findings are highly relevant to policy makers and other stakeholders since they point to the compounding value of taking concerted action against climate change and air pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change (CC) directly influences agricultural sectors, presenting the need to identify both adaptation and mitigation actions that can make local farming communities and crop production more resilient. In this context, the viticultural sector is one of those most challenged by CC due to the need to combine grape quality, grapevine cultivar adaptation and therefore farmers' future incomes. Thus, understanding how suitability for viticulture is changing under CC is of primary interest in the development of adaptation strategies in traditional wine-growing regions. Considering that climate is an essential part of the terroir system, the expected variability in climate change could have a marked influence on terroir resilience with important effects on local farming communities in viticultural regions. From this perspective, the aim of this paper is to define a new dynamic viticultural zoning procedure that is able to integrate the effects of CC on grape quality responses and evaluate terroir resilience, providing a support tool for stakeholders involved in viticultural planning (winegrowers, winegrower consortiums, policy makers etc.). To achieve these aims, a Hybrid Land Evaluation System, combining qualitative (standard Land Evaluation) and quantitative (simulation model) approaches, was applied within a traditional region devoted to high quality wine production in Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, BN), for a specific grapevine cultivar (Aglianico). The work employed high resolution climate projections that were derived under two different IPCC scenarios, namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results obtained indicate that: (i) only 2% of the suitable area of Valle Telesina expresses the concept of terroir resilience orientated towards Aglianico ultra quality grape production; (ii) within 2010–2040, it is expected that 41% of the area suitable for Aglianico cultivation will need irrigation to achieve quality grape production; (iii) by 2100, climate change benefits for the cultivation of Aglianico will decrease, as well as the suitable areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In drought-prone regions like Central Asia, drought monitoring studies are paramount to provide valuable information for drought risk mitigation. In this paper, the spatiotemporal drought characteristics in Central Asia are analyzed from 1966 to 2015 using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset. Drought events, as well as their frequency, duration, severity, intensity and preferred season, are studied by using the Run theory and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ( SPE I) at 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month timescales. The Principle Components Analysis (PCA) and the Varimax rotation method, the Sen's slope and the Modified Mann-Kendall method (MMK), as well as the wavelet analysis are adopted to identify the sub-regional drought patterns and to study the drought trend, periodicity and the possible links between drought variation and large-scale climate patterns, respectively. Results show that the drought characteristics in Central Asia vary considerably. The Hexi Corridor region and the southeastern part suffered from more short-term drought occurrences which mostly occurred in summer while the northeastern part experienced fewer droughts with longer duration and higher severity. Central Asia showed an overall wetting trend with a switch to drying trend since 2003. Regionally, the continuous wetting trend is found in north Kazakhstan while a consistent drying in the Aral Sea and Hexi Corridor region is observed in the last half-century. For 2003–2015, a significant drying pattern is detected in most Central Asia, except the northern Kazakhstan. A common significant 16–64-month periodical oscillation can be detected over the six sub-regions. The drought changes in Central Asia are highly associated with ENSO but less related to the Tibetan Plateau pressure. The North Atlantic Oscillation has an influence on drought change in most Central Asia but less for the Hexi Corridor and the drought variation in eastern Central Asia is affected by the strength of the Siberian High. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]