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China eliminated rural poverty under current poverty standards in 2020. However, compared with rural poverty, urban poverty in China has been somewhat neglected. This paper aims to discover the changes and determinants of multidimensional urban poverty in Shandong Province, a representative province in Eastern China. Using a nationally representative panel dataset, the China Family Panel Studies, and the Dual Cutoff method, this study creates a multidimensional poverty index with four dimensions and 11 indicators to measure urban poverty in Shandong Province. This paper discovers that while the incidence of multidimensional urban poverty in Shandong Province decreased from 47.62% in 2010 to 36.45% in 2018, the intensity of multidimensional poverty only decreased from 41.27% to 37.25%, which indicates the inadequacy of urban anti-poverty efforts in Shandong Province. This paper also uses logistic regression to identify the determinants of multidimensional urban poverty. The findings suggest that income, health, drinking water, and durable goods are the main determinants of multidimensional urban poverty in Shandong Province. Based on these findings, this study provides targeted recommendations for future urban anti-poverty policies in Shandong Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infectious diseases are a major threat to public health, causing serious medical consumption and casualties. Accurate prediction of infectious diseases incidence is of great significance for public health organizations to prevent the spread of diseases. However, only using historical incidence data for prediction can not get good results. This study analyzes the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hepatitis E, which are used to improve the accuracy of incidence prediction. Methods: We extracted the monthly meteorological data, incidence and cases number of hepatitis E from January 2005 to December 2017 in Shandong province, China. We employ GRA method to analyze the correlation between the incidence and meteorological factors. With these meteorological factors, we achieve a variety of methods for incidence of hepatitis E by LSTM and attention-based LSTM. We selected data from July 2015 to December 2017 to validate the models, and the rest was taken as training set. Three metrics were applied to compare the performance of models, including root mean square error(RMSE), mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) and mean absolute error(MAE). Results: Duration of sunshine and rainfall-related factors(total rainfall, maximum daily rainfall) are more relevant to the incidence of hepatitis E than other factors. Without meteorological factors, we obtained 20.74%, 19.50% for incidence in term of MAPE, by LSTM and A-LSTM, respectively. With meteorological factors, we obtained 14.74%, 12.91%, 13.21%, 16.83% for incidence, in term of MAPE, by LSTM-All, MA-LSTM-All, TA-LSTM-All, BiA-LSTM-All, respectively. The prediction accuracy increased by 7.83%. Without meteorological factors, we achieved 20.41%, 19.39% for cases in term of MAPE, by LSTM and A-LSTM, respectively. With meteorological factors, we achieved 14.20%, 12.49%, 12.72%, 15.73% for cases, in term of MAPE, by LSTM-All, MA-LSTM-All, TA-LSTM-All, BiA-LSTM-All, respectively. The prediction accuracy increased by 7.92%. More detailed results are shown in results section of this paper. Conclusions: The experiments show that attention-based LSTM is superior to other comparative models. Multivariate attention and temporal attention can greatly improve the prediction performance of the models. Among them, when all meteorological factors are used, multivariate attention performance is better. This study can provide reference for the prediction of other infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving culture and tourism integration efficiency is an important way to promote the high-quality development of cultural tourism. According to the inherent requirements of high-quality development, this paper constructed an evaluation indicator system for culture and tourism integration efficiency. Then, the culture and tourism integration efficiency of 16 cities in Shandong Province, China during the period from 2010 to 2019 was measured with the benevolent DEA cross-efficiency model. On the basis of exploratory spatial data analysis and dynamic spatial Durbin model, we explored the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of culture and tourism integration efficiency in Shandong Province. The results show that from 2010 to 2019, the culture and tourism integration efficiency in Shandong Province has experienced three stages of "rapid growth-rapid decline-stable rise period". The spatial pattern has changed from "high in the east and low in the west" to "high in the central and low in the north and south", and regions with high integration efficiency are mainly concentrated in Jiaodong Peninsula. The level of economic development significantly promotes the culture and tourism integration efficiency in local and neighboring cities in the short and long term, while policy environment has a significant negative impact. Traffic conditions and human capital only promote the culture and tourism integration efficiency in local cities. The level of information development and openness degree only have a long-term effect on the culture and tourism integration efficiency, without short-term effect. The research results are of great significance to improve the growth quality and sustainable development of cultural tourism in Shandong Province. Our work could provide a scientific basis for maximizing the allocation benefits of cultural and tourism resources in similar regions in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Construction of not in my back yard (NIMBY) facility Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects are feasible measures to realize sustainable urbanization. In order to ensure the smooth development of the NIMBY facility PPP projects, the problem of choosing the most suitable operation mode among many PPP modes is still scarce and unscientific. In order to select the operation mode of the PPP projects that best fits the characteristics of the project, this paper constructs the operation mode selection of the NIMBY facility PPP project. Firstly, the index system of operation mode selection of the NIMBY facility PPP project is determined. G1 subjective weighting method and information entropy objective weighting method are introduced to solve the optimal weight of each index. Grey correlation theory is used to improve TOPSIS method, and the calculation form of relative proximity degree is optimized to determine the most suitable operation mode for the project. In this paper, combined weighting and TOPSIS method are applied to the research of NIMBY facility PPP project, and the operation mode selection of NIMBY facility PPP project is established, which makes up the blank of this part. Finally, a PPP project in Qingdao, Shandong Province, China, is taken as an example to verify the applicability of the model. The effectiveness of this model was tested by comparing the results of TOPSIS method, Grey target model, Extended matter-element mode and GRA-TOPSIS. It is hoped to provide useful reference for the operation mode selection of NIMBY facility PPP project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Icy bridge deck in winter has tremendous consequences for expressway traffic safety, which is closely related to the bridge pavement temperature. In this paper, the critical meteorological conditions of icy bridge deck were predicted by multiple linear regression and BP neural network respectively. Firstly, the main parameters affecting the bridge pavement temperature were determined by Pearson partial correlation analysis based on the three-year winter meteorological data of the traffic meteorological monitoring station on the bridge in Shandong province. Secondly, the bridge pavement temperature is selected as the dependent variable, while air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, dew point temperature, wet bulb temperature and wind cold temperature were selected as independent variables, and the bridge pavement temperature prediction models of linear regression and 5-layer hidden layer classical BP neural network regression were established respectively based on whether the variables are linear or not. Finally, the prediction accuracy of the above models was compared by using the measured data. The results show that the linear regression model could be established only with air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, owing to collinearity problem. Compared with multiple linear regression model, the predicted value of the BP neural network has a higher degree of fitting with the measured data, and the coefficient of determination reaches 0.7929. Using multiple linear regression and BP neural network, the critical meteorological conditions of bridge deck icing in winter can be effectively predicted even when the sample size is insufficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The green development of coastal urban agglomerations, which are strategic core areas of national economic growth in China, has become a major focus of both academics and government agencies. In this paper, China's coastal urban agglomeration is taken as the research area, aiming at the serious air pollution problem of coastal urban agglomeration, geographic information system (ArcGIS10.2) spatial analysis and the spatial Dubin model were applied to National Aeronautics and Space Administration atmospheric remote sensing image inversion fine particulate matter (PM2.5) data from 2010–2016 to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and Influence mechanism of PM2.5 in China's coastal urban agglomerations, with a view to providing a reference value for coordinating air pollution in the coastal cities of the world. From 2010–2016, the PM2.5 concentration in China's coastal urban agglomerations decreased as a whole, and large spatial differences in PM2.5 concentration were observed in China's coastal urban agglomerations; the core high-pollution areas were the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, Shandong Peninsula, and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations. Large spatial differences in PM2.5 concentration were also observed within individual urban agglomerations, with higher PM2.5 concentrations found in the northern parts of the urban agglomerations. Significant spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity were observed among PM2.5-polluted cities in China's coastal urban agglomerations. The northern coastal urban agglomerations formed a relatively stable and continuous high-pollution zone. The spatial Dubin model was used to analyze the driving factors of PM2.5 pollution in coastal urban agglomerations. Together, meteorological, socioeconomic, pollution source, and ecological factors affected the spatial characteristics of PM2.5 pollution during the study period, and the overall effect was a mixed effect with significant spatial variation. Among them, meteorological factors were the greatest driver of PM2.5 pollution. In the short term, the rapid increase in population density, industrial emissions, industrial energy consumption, and total traffic emissions were the important driving factors of PM2.5 pollution in the coastal urban agglomerations of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task. However, for different data series, the performance of these models varies. Hepatitis E, as an acute liver disease, has been a major public health problem. Which model is more appropriate for predicting the incidence of hepatitis E? In this paper, three different methods are used and the performance of the three methods is compared. Methods: Autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA), support vector machine(SVM) and long short-term memory(LSTM) recurrent neural network were adopted and compared. ARIMA was implemented by python with the help of statsmodels. SVM was accomplished by matlab with libSVM library. LSTM was designed by ourselves with Keras, a deep learning library. To tackle the problem of overfitting caused by limited training samples, we adopted dropout and regularization strategies in our LSTM model. Experimental data were obtained from the monthly incidence and cases number of hepatitis E from January 2005 to December 2017 in Shandong province, China. We selected data from July 2015 to December 2017 to validate the models, and the rest was taken as training set. Three metrics were applied to compare the performance of models, including root mean square error(RMSE), mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) and mean absolute error(MAE). Results: By analyzing data, we took ARIMA(1, 1, 1), ARIMA(3, 1, 2) as monthly incidence prediction model and cases number prediction model, respectively. Cross-validation and grid search were used to optimize parameters of SVM. Penalty coefficient C and kernel function parameter g were set 8, 0.125 for incidence prediction, and 22, 0.01 for cases number prediction. LSTM has 4 nodes. Dropout and L2 regularization parameters were set 0.15, 0.001, respectively. By the metrics of RMSE, we obtained 0.022, 0.0204, 0.01 for incidence prediction, using ARIMA, SVM and LSTM. And we obtained 22.25, 20.0368, 11.75 for cases number prediction, using three models. For MAPE metrics, the results were 23.5%, 21.7%, 15.08%, and 23.6%, 21.44%, 13.6%, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively. For MAE metrics, the results were 0.018, 0.0167, 0.011 and 18.003, 16.5815, 9.984, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively. Conclusions: Comparing ARIMA, SVM and LSTM, we found that nonlinear models(SVM, LSTM) outperform linear models(ARIMA). LSTM obtained the best performance in all three metrics of RSME, MAPE, MAE. Hence, LSTM is the most suitable for predicting hepatitis E monthly incidence and cases number. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complexity modelling of economic efficiency and growth potential is increasingly essential for countries and provinces. Evaluating the monetary flows, kinetic energy (efficiency) and potential capacity (resilience) provides crucial information for economic development. In the paper, the authors analyze growth opportunities for the Chinese economy from a system science point of view, using the perspective of information entropy, based on the input-output tables. Over the past four decades of reform and opening-up, China has made remarkable progress in its economic development. In 2007, China's GDP was at its fastest pace in history at 14.2% growth. However, after the financial crisis in 2008, the global economy experienced a downward trend and China's economic development also settled on a medium-low level of development. The traditional perspective is to rank regional development only based on GDP growth, whereas here, the authors advocate another evaluation method based on efficiency and potential growth. Unbalanced regional economic development has become problematic and has become a barrier for sustainability of China's economy. The results of the research indicate firstly that China's regional development in 2007 and 2012 has been unequal between the provinces. Secondly, the authors found that Shandong province had significantly higher indicators for efficiency and potential growth than others in the same circumstances. Authors observe that provinces tend to carry out industrial policies and adjust the structure of industry on a local level. This analysis demonstrates that the spatial imbalance of efficiency and potential of economic development under the perspective of provincial-level regions. From the perspective of industry, it indicates that the supply chain is too short, mainly focusing on the mining and processing of resources and minerals in the original upstream industry chain, while the downstream is not fully utilized. These represent some unique insights yielded through this type of analysis that authors advocate applying more broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]