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Vietnam's coastal zone provides a diverse range of natural resources and favourable conditions for social and economic development. However, its coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable, due to several natural coastal hazards, over-exploitation and other human activities. In spite of diverse interventions, Vietnam's coastal zone continues to experience significant damage from floods, erosion and typhoons. These hazards are being intensified by climate change and associated rising sea levels. This paper assesses the potential vulnerability of Vietnam's coast to climate change and discusses possible adaptation policies and plan to reduce the impacts. GIS analysis was used for the assessment of coastal vulnerability. Related literature was reviewed to develop detailed understanding of coastal adaptation to climate change. Adaptation policies and plans were appraised to identify potential coastal adaptation policies and plans that could be adapted by Vietnam. It was identified that vulnerability of the coastal zone of Vietnam could not be attributed only to climatic factors, but also to the physical condition of the coastline. Much of Vietnam's coastline, particularly, areas around the Red River delta and the Mekong River have elevations below 1 m. These coastlines are largely developed and serve as economic centres of the country, which makes the coast more vulnerable to climate change and the rising sea level. The paper concluded that a non-structural approach (coastal buffer zones, building houses on stilts, storm warning systems, growing of flood-resistant crops and elevated storm shelters with medicine and food storage) could be used by Vietnam to adapt her low-lying coastline around the two deltas to climate change as this strategy enables vulnerable areas to be occupied for longer before eventual retreat. However, for these policies to be successful, it should be planned, implemented well in advance, monitored and evaluated over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The threat of sea-level rise and climate change means that coastal managers are being increasingly asked to make long-term assessments of potential coastal impacts and responses. In the UK, shoreline management planning (for flood and erosion hazards) and spatial planning now takes a 100 year perspective. An integrated framework across a wide range of physical and social issues is required for the assessment of coastal impacts and consequently for making sound management decisions. This paper provides an overview of the development of the 'Tyndall Coastal Simulator' including the underlying philosophy that is being followed. The Simulator is based on a series of linked climate models (CM) within a nested framework which recognises three spatial scales: (i) the global (GCM) scale; (ii) the regional scale and (iii) the Simulator Domain (a physiographic unit, such as a coastal sub-cell). Within the nesting, the larger scale provides the boundary conditions for the smaller scale. The models feed into each other and describe a range of relevant processes: sea level, tides, surges, waves, sediment transport and coastal morphology. Different climate scenarios, as well as the range of uncertainty, are being explored. Communication of results is a major issue and the Simulator includes a dedicated GIS-based user interface that allows a wide range of queries of model outputs. The paper demonstrates the possibility of developing an integrated framework that is multi-scale and capable of linking various models in order to simulate complex coastal processes and consequently allowing long-term assessments that are useful for setting future management plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dune slack habitats are highly dependent on the availability of water to support flora and fauna. Typically this is provided by shallow groundwater. This paper describes the seasonal and long term variation in groundwater levels in part of the Sefton coastline between 1972 and 2007. The effects of climate change, vegetation management and coastline realignment on groundwater levels are modelled. The observed annual water table levels rise and fall with an amplitude of 1.5 m, but longer term variations and trends are apparent. A stochastic water balance model was used to describe the changes in water table levels in slack floors in the open dunes and also in areas afforested with pine trees. It was found that the pine trees evaporated 214 mm/year more than open dunes vegetation, resulting in the water table being 0.5–1.0 m lower under the trees than under the open dunes. The effects of climate change on the ground water was simulated using predictions of future climate conditions based on the UKCIP02 medium high emissions scenario. The increase in temperature and change in rainfall patterns will result in a decrease in mean ground water levels by 1.0–1.5 mm in the next 90 years. Typical patterns consist of sequences of 5–10 years of low water table levels interspersed by infrequent sequences consisting of 2–5 years of relatively high or “normal” levels. These results indicate that that flora and fauna that cannot survive a 5–10 year period of water table levels >2.5 m below ground level are unlikely to survive or persist in many slack areas and a change in the ecology of these slack may become inevitable. Other effects of climate change include sea level rise which will result in a gradual rise in water table levels. Coastal erosion will increase the water table gradient to the sea and result in a slight lowering of the ground water levels. Conversely coastal accretion will reverse this process. The spatial distribution of coastal erosion and accretion along the Sefton coastline and its likely impacts on groundwater levels are discussed. The modelling work described in this paper has identified the factors which have the largest effect on groundwater levels in temperate coastal dune systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level changes are caused by several natural phenomena, including mainly ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. It was estimated, in this respect, that global average sea level rose, during the 20th Century, by at least 10 cm. This trend is expected to continue and most likely accelerated during the 21st Century due to human-induced global warming. Global average sea level is expected to rise, by the year 2100, due to global warming between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea-level will significantly impact coastal areas due to the high concentration of natural and socioeconomic activities and assets located along the coast. The northern coastal zone of the Nile Delta is generally low land, and is consequently vulnerable to direct and indirect impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate changes, particularly inundation. Despite the uncertainty associated with developed scenarios for climate change and expected SLR, there is a need, according to precautionary approach, to assess and analyze the impacts of SLR. Such an assessment, on one hand, can assist in formulating effective adaptation options to specific, sometimes localized, impacts of SLR. On the other hand, such an analysis can contribute significantly to the development of integrated approach to deal with the impacts of SLR. The objective of this paper is to assess and spatially analyze the risks of expected sea level rise (SLR), in particular inundation, and its implications up to the year 2100 in Kafr El Sheikh Governorate, Egypt, using GIS techniques. For that purpose, a GIS was developed for the study area and then utilized to identify the spatial extent of those areas that would be vulnerable to inundation by SLR. Moreover, various land uses/land covers susceptible to such inundation were identified. Results indicate that more than 22.59 % and 24.50 % of the total area of Kafr El Sheikh Governorate would be vulnerable to inundation under B1 and A1FI (IPCC most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios), respectively. No significant difference was noticed between the two scenarios in terms of spatial extent of SLR impacts. It was also found that a significant proportion of these areas were found to be currently either undeveloped or wetlands. Moreover, it was found that about 90.13 % of the vulnerable areas are actually less exposed to the risks of SLR due to the existence of a number of man-made features, not intended as protection measures, e.g. International Coastal Highway, that can be used to limit the areas vulnerable to inundations by SLR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal zones experience increased rates of coastal erosion, due to rising sea levels, increased storm surge frequencies, reduced sediment delivery and anthropogenic transformations. Yet, coastal zones host ecosystems that provide associated services which, therefore, may be lost due to coastal erosion. In this paper we assess to what extent past and future coastal erosion patterns lead to losses in land cover types and associated ecosystem service values. Hence, historical (based on CORINE land cover information) and projected (based on Dynamic and Interactive Vulnerability Assessment - DIVA - simulations) coastal erosion patterns are used in combination with a benefits transfer approach. DIVA projections are based on regionalized IPCC scenarios. Relative to the period 1975-2050, a case study is provided for selected European coastal country member states. For historical (1975-2006) coastal erosion trends, we observe territory losses in coastal agricultural, water body and forest & semi-natural areas - total coastal erosion equaling over 4,500 km. Corresponding coastal ecosystem service values decrease from about €22.3 billion per year in 1975 to about €21.6 billion per year in 2006. For future (2006-2050) coastal erosion projections, total territory losses equal between ~3,700 km and ~5,800 km - coastal wetland areas being affected most severely. Corresponding coastal ecosystem service values decrease to between €20.1 and €19.4 billion per year by 2050. Hence, we argue that the response strategy of EU member states to deal with coastal erosion and climate change impacts should be based on the economic as well as the ecological importance of their coastal zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main challenges in Coastal Erosion Risk Assessment (CERA) is integrating and analysis of conflicting data in various time periods and spatial scales through dissimilar environmental, social, and economic criteria. Currently, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are widely used in risk assessment despite their drawbacks and limitations as transactional systems for multi-scales, multi-epochs, and multi-themes analysis. Hence, an analytical conceptual framework is proposed in this paper based on geospatial business intelligence paradigm to develop a Spatial Multidimensional Conceptual Model (SMCM) to assess coastal erosion risk. The model is designed based on Spatial On-Line Analytical Processing (SOLAP) platform, on the top of both analytical and transactional paradigms, to allow fast synthesis of cross-tabulated data and easy comparisons over space, scales, epochs, and themes. This objective is achieved through a comprehensive integration of multiple environmental, social, and economic criteria as well as their interactions at various scales. It also takes into account multiple elements at risk such as people, infrastructure, and built environment as different dimensions of analysis. Using this solution allows decision makers to benefit from on-demand, interactive, and comprehensive information in a way that is not possible using GIS alone. The developed model can easily be adapted for any other coastal region through the proposed framework to perform risk assessment. The advantages and drawbacks of the proposed framework are also discussed and new research perspectives are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a generic framework for assessing inherent climate change hazards in coastal environments through a combined coastal classification and hazard evaluation system. The framework is developed to be used at scales relevant for regional and national planning and aims to cover all coastal environments worldwide through a specially designed coastal classification system containing 113 generic coastal types. The framework provides information on the degree to which key climate change hazards are inherent in a particular coastal environment, and covers the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding. The system includes a total of 565 individual hazard evaluations, each graduated into four different hazard levels based on a scientific literature review. The framework uses a simple assessment methodology with limited data and computing requirements, allowing for application in developing country settings. It is presented as a graphical tool-the Coastal Hazard Wheel-to ease its application for planning purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers eustatic sea level rise to be a major impact driven by climate change. Relative sea level change, whether positive or negative, will affect industries, communities and ecology along the world's coastlines and estuaries. Estimates of global eustatic sea level rise between 1961 and 2003 are 1.8 ± 0.5 mm a, reflecting results from validated global tide gauge records. Over the last two decades, several studies have used automatic tide gauge records with at least 80 years of data to generate global prediction models. The IPCC recognises that global change is not uniform, therefore local policy for flood management and coastal protection should rely on local change models that incorporate glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) and apply accurate data correction techniques. Some of the longest tidal records are held within the Northern Hemisphere, e.g. Cascais, Amsterdam, Aberdeen, Sheerness and Newlyn. The UK provides several important case studies highlighting changes in relative sea level between the north and the south, primarily due to variations in GIA rates of land uplift and subsidence. Tide gauge records are held by a variety of governmental, non-governmental and private organisations. However, each source may typically compile data in different ways, relying on diverse equipment and recording techniques, often with variations in frequency, length, quality and corrections applied. Even within a single organisation there may be differences in dataset quality. This paper examines some of the key sources of error when working with historical tidal datasets in local geographic areas and aims to identify the limitations of locally derived data thereby assisting in the determination of relative sea level trends that are of widespread value to infrastructure and policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Archaeological investigations along the coastlines of Denmark and northern Germany have produced invaluable data concerning the Stone Age, and particularly our Mesolithic fishing, hunting and gathering ancestors. However, a number of different natural and human forces have partially or totally destroyed this important resource, particularly in other parts of North West Europe such as Britain and Ireland. What is more, further problems can be predicted as a consequence of climate change with possible rising sea levels and storm events. This paper considers the value of Mesolithic coastal archaeology, the threats posed to it, and the steps which are being taken to address these threats. The conclusion is that although research and policy is moving ahead, much more needs to be done in order to understand and preserve these sites before it is too late. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indian subcontinent is highly prone to the detrimental impacts of hazards viz. cyclones, floods and storm surges. Of late, these events have become extreme in nature and intensity. While occurrence and severity of the events is being linked to the phenomenon of climate change, their devastating potentialities are also getting triggered due to lack of resilience and coping capacity of the human community. That in turn depends on distribution of activities over the land i.e. land use pattern, affecting the socio -economic conditions directly. A coastal village often lacks infrastructural support, administrative attention and planning standards compared to a coastal city, thereby making it more vulnerable to disasters like flood. In a coastal city it is easy to govern and manage livelihood as land use depends highly on anthropogenic decisions. While in a coastal village, activities would highly depend on its natural characteristics viz. coastal geomorphology, soil, vegetation cover i.e. governance of livelihood by the eco-system. Hence, managing disaster through in-situ pro-active or developmental measures in a rural planning unit though imperative, is a challenging task. This paper focuses on spatial planning techniques for Restoration of ecological buffers and livelihood enhancement that would sustainably combat the impact of flood at village level in a coastal area. Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) techniques have been used extensively in this study as application tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea-level rise as a result of climate change increases inundation and erosion, which are affected by a complex interplay of physical environmental parameters at the coast. China's coast is vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and associated coastal flooding because of physical and socio-economical factors such as its low topography, highly developed economy, and highly dense population. To identify vulnerable sections of the coast, this paper presents a national assessment of the vulnerability of the Chinese coast using 8 physical variables: sea-level rise, coastal geomorphology, elevation, slope, shoreline erosion, land use, mean tide range, and mean wave height. A coastal vulnerability index was calculated by integrating the differentially weighted rank values of the 8 variables, based on which the coastline is segmented into 4 classes. The results show that 3% of the 18,000-km-long Chinese coast is very highly vulnerable, 29% is highly vulnerable, 58% is moderately vulnerable, and 10% is in the low-vulnerable class. Findings further reveal that large amounts of land and population will be vulnerable to inundation by coastal flooding from sea level rise and storm surge. Finally, some suggestions are presented for decision makers and other concerned stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal zone management and mitigation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In coastal dunes, landscape changes are a rule, rather than an exception. This paper gives an overview of changes in landscape and vegetation with a focus on the past century. The history of dunes is characterised by phases of sand drift, alternated with geomorphological stability. The historical development of dune woodland during these stable phases has been documented for sites all over Europe. Vegetation reconstructions of historical open dune habitats however is very difficult due to limited preservation of fossil remains. People have drastically altered coastal dune landscapes through centuries of exploitation and more recently development of the coast. Historical land use has generally pushed vegetation back into a semi-natural state. During roughly the past century a tendency of increasing fixation and succession is observed on coastal dunes throughout northwest Europe. Six causes of change are discussed. 1) Changes in land use, mainly abandonment of agricultural practices, have led to the development of late successional stages such as scrub and woodland. 2) Crashing rabbit populations due to myxomatosis in the 1950s caused vigorous grass growth and probably stimulated scrub development. 3) A general tendency of landscape fixation is observed due to both natural and anthropogenic factors. 4) Eutrophication, mainly due to atmospheric nitrogen deposition is clearly linked to grass encroachment on acidic but also on some calcareous dunes. 5) The impact of climate change on vegetation is still unclear but probably lengthening of growing season and maybe enhanced CO concentrations have led to an acceleration of succession. 6) A general anthropogenisation of the landscape occurs with rapid spread of non-native species as an important consequence. The reconstruction of a natural reference landscape is considered largely unattainable because of irreversible changes and the long tradition of human impact, in many cases since the development of the dunes. Two contradictory elements need reconciliation. First, the general acceleration of succession and scrub and woodland development in particular is partly caused by a decreased anthropogenic interference in the landscape and deserves more appreciation. Second, most biodiversity values are largely linked to open, early succession dune habitats and are threatened by the same tendency. Apart from internal nature management, in which grazing plays an important part, re-mobilisation of stable, senescent dunes is an important challenge for dune management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the application of coastal hydro-informatic modelling (using the TELEMAC Modelling System) to address management issues arising from projected hydrodynamical and morphological changes within a shallow, sandy estuarine environment. The model incorporates the complex interaction of ocean, terrestrial and atmospheric processes. The case study of the Dyfi Estuary, on the west coast of Wales, is highlighted here. As sea levels have risen locally and are predicted to rise further, a National Nature Reserve (Borth Bog), which has been reclaimed from tidal waters by embankments, will be at increasing risk from flooding episodes due to overtopping of these embankments at high tide. Present and predicted future tidal-fluvial scenarios have been modelled in the Dyfi Estuary in order to estimate the potential for flooding. In addition, areas of greatest velocity change and potential for sediment erosion/accretion have been identified. A further process that has been investigated is how salt marsh migration is affected by sea-level rise. This case study exemplifies some fundamental and complex physical processes inherent to estuaries, and shows how different management options can be assessed, before their implementation, through a modelling approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal development along the Mediterranean coast needs to be tackled with an integrated approach, in order to safeguard people and properties from extreme events, maintain environmental flows and ecosystems functions, protect coastal landscapes and ensure public accessibility to the shore. The complexity of the Mediterranean countries legal and administrative framework and its morphological heterogeneity make the implementation of new the Protocol on ICZM provisions on coastal setbacks,-claiming for a 100 m wide buffer zone where construction is not allowed- a challenge for the success of the initiative. European countries and the European Commission are party to the protocol but the European legal framework lacks of specific provisions addressing the definition of coastal setbacks. Moreover, climate change, in terms of sea level rise and maritime climate, could play a major role in the future position of setback lines. While arbitrary setbacks should be put in place to halt short-term unwise coastal development, science can improve the identification of coastal setbacks by providing integrated methodologies to be implemented at the local level. The objective of this paper is to review concepts and practices in the use of coastal setbacks, in the context of the provisions of the ICZM protocol and taking into account new challenges posed by climate change. A stepwise route map is proposed as a base to identify coastal setbacks, applicable to the Mediterranean region and elsewhere, to be used as a base to improve arbitrary setback approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many of the world’s coasts appear vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise. This paper assesses the application of a coastal sensitivity index (CSI) to the Illawarra coast, a relatively well-studied shoreline in southeast Australia. Nine variables, namely (a) rock type, (b) coastal slope (c) geomorphology (d) barrier type (e) shoreline exposure (f) shoreline change (g) relative sea-level rise (h) mean wave height and (j) mean tide range, were adopted in calculation of the CSI (the square root of the product of the ranked variables divided by the number of variables). Two new variables, shoreline exposure and barrier type, were trialled in this analysis and the extent to which these increased the discriminatory power of the index was assessed. Four iterations of the CSI were undertaken using different combinations of ranked variables for each of 105 cells in a grid template, and the index values derived were displayed based on quartiles, indicating sections of coast with very high, high, moderate and low sensitivity. Increasing the number of variables increased the discriminatory power of the index, but the broad pattern and the rank order were very similar for each of the iterations. Rocky and cliffed sections of coast are least sensitive whereas sandy beaches backed by low plains or dunes record the highest sensitivity. It is difficult to determine shoreline change on this coast, because individual storms result in substantial erosion of beaches, but there are prolonged subsequent periods of accretion and foredune rebuilding. Consequently this variable is not a good indicator of shoreline sensitivity and the index is unlikely to provide a clear basis for forecasting future recession of beaches. The results of this study provide a framework for coastal managers and planners to prioritize efforts to enhance the resilience or consider adaptation measures in the coastal zone within a study region. Sensitivity of the coast if considered in conjunction with other social factors may be an input into broader assessments of the overall vulnerability of coasts and their communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal development along the Mediterranean coast needs to be tackled with an integrated approach, in order to safeguard people and properties from extreme events, maintain environmental flows and ecosystems functions, protect coastal landscapes and ensure public accessibility to the shore. The complexity of the Mediterranean countries legal and administrative framework and its morphological heterogeneity make the implementation of new the Protocol on ICZM provisions on coastal setbacks, -- claiming for a 100 m wide buffer zone where construction is not allowed-- a challenge for the success of the initiative. European countries and the European Commission are party to the protocol but the European legal framework lacks of specific provisions addressing the definition of coastal setbacks. Moreover, climate change, in terms of sea level rise and maritime climate, could play a major role in the future position of setback lines. While arbitrary setbacks should be put in place to halt short-term unwise coastal development, science can improve the identification of coastal setbacks by providing integrated methodologies to be implemented at the local level. The objective of this paper is to review concepts and practices in the use of coastal setbacks, in the context of the provisions of the ICZM protocol and taking into account new challenges posed by climate change. A stepwise route map is proposed as a base to identify coastal setbacks, applicable to the Mediterranean region and elsewhere, to be used as a base to improve arbitrary setback approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]