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The article offers information regarding organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) and electronic-paper with an assessment of their potential to disrupt existing markets. It mentions that the new technologies offer an opportunity for the European firms in the information and communication technologies (ICTs) sector. It discusses a study which includes literature review, its potential application and market analysis. It states that information and communication technologies (ICTs) play an important role in the transformation of the economy.

Purpose: The science of Foresight differs from the commonplace notion of what a science is because it is a metadiscipline – a logical type of science higher than the logical type of disciplinary sciences. It is practical, uses transdisciplinary processes that combine scientific disciplines and often examines counterfactuals in a scientific manner. This study aims to demonstrate that Foresight is a science, by presenting a number of best practices and potential innovations in higher education that could facilitate obtaining skills for Foresight science. Design/methodology/approach: The methods of scientific education that have served us well in the past are inadequate for metadisciplinary sciences such as Foresight. The paper discusses what metadisciplinarity is, using a variety of examples, and distinguishes it from disciplines and ways of crossing disciplinary boundaries. Understanding the essential characteristics of Foresight as a metadisciplinary science leads to identifying current best practices and possible educational innovations in undergraduate education that will facilitate obtaining Foresight skills. Throughout the paper, examples are drawn from the education and professional experience of the author in the USA and Europe. Findings: This paper demonstrates that Foresight is a science and presents a number of best practices and potential innovations in higher education that could facilitate obtaining skills for Foresight science. It identifies barriers to those innovations and approaches to overcome them. Originality/value: This viewpoint paper clarifies the meaning of the terms interdisciplinarity, transdisciplinarity and metadisciplinarity to identify the essential characteristics of Foresight as a science. Then, it identifies and advocates needed changes in North American higher education to provide earlier and more efficient opportunities for Foresight researchers and users to obtain the skills they need. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to illustrate and discuss how stakeholder assessment of scenarios can be used to trigger a structured and, therefore, more efficient debate amongst stakeholders about future options for achieving a more eco-efficient transport system in Europe. Particularly, it wants to explore the extent to which a distinction between the desirability and the feasibility of a potential future development can render such debates more rational and transparent. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on a project on eco-efficient transport for the Science and Technology Option Assessment panel of the European Parliament (STOA). Key elements of the methods used in the STOA project were easily understandable scenarios and a survey of the main assumptions underlying the scenarios. Both the scenarios and the survey were used in a stakeholder workshop to assess the desirability and the feasibility of approaches towards establishing a more eco-efficient transport system. Findings – The methodological approach proved helpful for collecting a large amount of valuable information in a relative short time. In particular, the distinction between desirability and feasibility was useful in mapping out the patterns of opinion amongst stakeholders and for understanding where there is common ground, where there are differences and what the reasons behind these differences are. It helped in identifying promising pathways towards more eco-efficient transport futures and in getting a better understanding of barriers and of the ways to overcome them. Practical implications – The approach served as the basis for having a well-structured, rational and, thus, efficient debate. In practice, this factor is relevant because stakeholder involvement is crucial when it comes to transitions of socio-technical systems, such as the transport system. Keeping stakeholders motivated to take part in such participatory processes is only possible, however, if they perceive that these processes are well-structured and, therefore, efficient. Originality/value – In contrast to many other scenario-based approaches, the scenarios in this project were understood as an input to the discussion and not as the result of a process. Furthermore, not only the results but also the underlying assumptions of the scenarios were explicitly made a topic for assessment. The differentiation between desirability and feasibility was used as a guiding dimension for the assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – This paper aims to provide a meta-analysis of the main themes emerging from public domain foresight studies on the defence and security environment undertaken in the decade since the 9/11 attacks on the USA. The authors focus mainly on foresight studies undertaken in Europe.Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on a content analysis of public domain foresight studies.Findings – Foresight studies on the defence and security environment reflect a shift in security thinking away from a focus on state-centric threats towards a much broader view of security risks that includes risks presented by the vulnerability of European society to the failure of critical infrastructure, to pandemics, environmental change and resource based conflicts. The authors place a particular emphasis on the treatment of technological change in these defence and security foresight studies and argue that the growing importance of dual-use technologies is likely to mean that defence will play a declining role as a sponsor and lead-user of advanced technologies in the future.Originality/value – Foresight studies on the defence and security environment have grown in number since 9/11 not least in Europe. However, they have been the subject of little systematic analysis. This paper makes a contribution to such an analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to shed light on innovation systems dynamics and the positioning of Europe in a longer term perspective, with special attention to the international governance of the major challenges which humanity is facing.Design/methodology/approach – The method used is based on a secondary analysis and interpretation of Foresight studies. The underlying assumption is that Foresight exercises can be considered as the scene where techno-economic systems and trajectories are proposed, discussed and shaped.Findings – Foresights can be distinguished by the challenges and issues they focus on: – the innovation race: competitiveness and influence through innovation, – the thematic concerns: the stakes of global public goods, – the normative perspectives: a new style of development in the making. The question to know whether Europe can be a world driver in fostering responsible innovation models and cooperative modes of knowledge circulation and global challenges handling through relevant social and technological innovations.Originality/value – This paper reviews and puts in perspective Foresight exercises in an original way, this on two grounds: first, it includes exercises fostered at national, regional (in particular the EU) and global (UN system) levels – this to account for the emerging multi-level governance and, second, it classifies them according to their major focus, namely the innovation race, the thematic concerns (global public goods) and the normative perspectives (new style of development). It provides to the actors of innovation in both the public and private sector an understanding of the current key-concerns and visions on innovation systems and the position of Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The paper seeks to discuss how foresight is used to understand the implications of global changes for research and innovation policies. It aims to present a recent Irish case study that identified grand challenges in the national context, with their implications for research and innovation.Design/methodology/approach – The foresight project is described and provides knowledge and analysis for a broader, national research prioritisation exercise. The paper analyses the implementation of the Irish foresight exercise and the main outputs generated. It connects the results of the project with the literature on foresight, innovation and grand challenges.Findings – The emergence of grand challenges within research and innovation policy discourse in Europe has refreshed key questions for foresight theory and practice. Although many grand challenges have relatively clear implications for research and innovation (investment), others do not. A bottom-up, participatory process produced a broader set of grand challenges.Research limitations/implications – The concept of grand challenges is still relatively new.Practical implications – Not all research and innovation priorities are linked to grand challenges. National policies need to take account of grand challenges whilst continuing to support other research and innovation needs.Originality/value – The paper introduces a novel approach for identifying grand challenges and responses within the research and innovation system through a bottom-up process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The aim of this paper is to describe and evaluate the use of a five-step foresight process and the application of scenario methods to grasp the range of future alternatives that might confront researchers and research managers in European metrology research institutes. The sector is to be examined as a part of a larger study that aims to reflect on the potential future roles for the public research institutes, in several sectors (the other sectors in the study included civil space, plant science, geosurveys, and marine), towards the development of the European Research Area (ERA). Design/methodology/approach - The paper illustrates how scenario methods were used to, first, serve as a basis for policy recommendations for the field of European metrology research institutes and, second, help experts and stakeholders to network and actively discuss a shared vision of the future of the field. Findings - This case demonstrates the need for proactive strategic management which goes well beyond the institutional boundary, into national policy and European decision making. As other areas of European research begin to think about the importance of European cooperation, lessons can be drawn from the experience of this particular sector. The process of looking forward took on board the political context and allowed participants and the researchers to think beyond these boundaries. Research limitations/implications - Although this is a pioneering study, there is a danger that some inputs may not have been captured. The results build on the input of a limited number of experts only and on the literature available in the public domain. There were few participants discussing the future of a vast field of research and this may mean that important input has not been captured. Time limitations in the workshops necessarily limit the scope for experts and policy makers to engage with the concepts. Follow-up activities based on the research outputs are required for the findings to go forward. Practical implications - Bringing together different stakeholders for shaping a shared vision through scenario workshops led to rich interactions and creative thinking. The workshops created a space for experts to consider policy options for reforming and making better use of the institutes in building the ERA. Originality/value - Using scenario workshops for foresight research results as an opportunity for stakeholders to visualise different futures for metrology research within Europe. The public research institute sector tends to be more generally under-studied as a component of modern innovation systems. We evaluate and show that the foresight process is an appropriate methodology to look at what is inherently a political process at the implementation level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify banks' strategies in turning uncertainty into opportunities.Design/methodology/approach – Longitudinal analysis from 1990 until 2009 has been conducted to evidence factors affecting environmental uncertainty in the European banking industry and how banks have perceived and reacted to it.Findings – The paper evidences banks' strategies in situations of low and medium levels of uncertainty and suggests some behavior to face a high level of crisis.Practical implications – The paper defines a general framework, based on banks' perception and reaction to uncertainty, that can help banks to become champions in facing the current level of uncertainty.Originality/value – The paper presents a critical analysis of how to face the enormous increase of uncertainty that the financial sector is experiencing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on a research paper which is part of the State of Play of the Futures Field project on foresight and future in Europe. According to the paper, European Union has encouraged parallel developments at national, regional and local levels. It states that ForSociety ERA-Net [2] is a sustainable and dynamic network where national foresight program managers co-ordinate their activities and then implement efficient transnational foresight programs. It furthers states that European people need to set priorities for investment in science and innovation activities.

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to assess the main implications for innovation and competitiveness of social computing trends that promote swift social and economic relations. They are increasingly being considered by policymakers, both as tool and object for policymaking (i.e. how social computing could play a role in information society policies). Therefore, a general issue for the paper is represented by the lessons to be learned in terms of policy-related consequences for Europe. Design/methodology/approach - The paper is based on an extensive desk-based survey of secondary data available from reports, studies and most recent statistics, from internet audience measurement companies, international research companies, research projects of non-profit centers, international firms or the industry itself. Findings - The diffusion and usage of social computing applications have been growing at an exponential rate. A powerful feature emerges, i.e. the new user as supplier, co-producer or innovator of the service. New areas of innovation lie at the crossroads of an increasingly complex process of both tacit and codified knowledge production. They affect the way people find information, learn, share, communicate and consume and the way business is done. New players and markets provide significant threats and opportunities for the ICT and media industries. New players have a smaller cost base, viable business models and a real market. Research limitations/implications - Comparative and systematic research of the fast growing social computing trends is needed over longer periods of time. Practical implications - The paper provides the first evidence on the size and weight of these trends, as well as on their social and economic relevance. It raises the need for more research, e.g. on the areas that would be most impacted and to what extent, as well as a wealth of policy-related research questions. Originality/value - Since social computing is an emerging phenomenon, the work is innovative and novel because it attempts to draw a first solid overall picture of the development of these trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to report on experiences and reflect on challenges in transdisciplinary technology foresight as exemplified by cognition and robotics research. Design/methodology/approach - The study was conducted as a broad transdisciplinary process involving users and producers of robot technology solutions as well as scientists and other experts in cognition and robotics. Transdisciplinarity is understood as the transcendence of disciplinary modes together with the involvement and participation of non-scientists in problem formulation and knowledge provision. The study focuses on the possibilities for innovation at the crossroads where robotics and cognition meet. Findings - The paper reflects on the following methodological issues: medium- and long-term research and innovation possibilities and barriers in a transdisciplinary context; the classification and framing of transdisciplinary fields; the facilitation of technology foresight processes; and the trustworthiness of the foresight process and its recommendations. Practical implications - The results have been disseminated among relevant advisory and grant-awarding bodies within research and innovation, relevant knowledge institutions and universities, and companies on both the development and user sides of the technologies. Originality/value - The paper contributes to European experiences on national-level foresight exercises. The conceptual findings of the case study are of value to science and innovation policy makers, foresight practitioners and scholars within the field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The paper aims to query the value of strategies implemented, notably in France, and to demonstrate the largely ignored link between demographics and economics. Design/methodology/approach - The paper achieves its objective by comparing statistics of European Union (EU) members and competitors to reveal that traditional views on economics and social policy may no longer apply. Findings - The paper finds that the Old Europe stagnated due to political lack of will, but a renewed Europe has begun. The Euro as scapegoat for poor performance is dismissed. Productivity figures show how foreign trade and debt can be efficiently managed. Overall, trade must be encouraged worldwide. Low-wage countries will inevitably compete and cannot ethically be ignored. The subsidy debate heats up as the EU agricultural policy ends and the USA extends Farm Aid. Regardless, EU members must focus on sustainable development. The low birthrate in the Old Europe means social policy should be reformed to encourage families to have children and allow selective immigration to meet labour needs. The implication is that France - Europe in general - must review the EU mission and structure. The French president seems to be headed in this direction. In future research, demographics must be monitored to make social and economic plans for the working lives of our youth and retirement of our seniors. Originality/value - This paper will interest economists, politicians and policy-makers, especially those unaware of the role of demographics in productivity and planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – This article aims to provide insight into the future of financial markets and regulation in order to define what would be the best strategy for Europe.Design/methodology/approach – First the authors define the potential changes in financial markets and then the tools available for the regulator to tame them. Finally, they build five scenarios according to the main evolutions observed on the financial markets and on the tools used by the regulator to modify these trends.Findings – Among the five scenarios defined, two present highly unstable features since the regulator refuses to choose between financial opening and independently determining how to regulate finance in order to preserve financial stability. Three of them achieve financial stability. However, they are more or less efficient or feasible. In terms of market efficiency, the multi-polar scenario is the best and the fragmentation scenario is the worst, since gains of integration depend on the size of the new capital market. Regarding sovereignty of regulation, fragmentation is the best scenario and the multi-polar scenario is the worst, because it necessitates coordination at the global level which implies moving further away from respective national preferences. However, the more realistic option seems to be the regionalisation scenario: this level of coordination seems much more realistic than the global one; the market should be of sufficient size to enjoy substantial benefits of integration. Nevertheless, the “European government” might gradually increase the degree of financial integration outside Europe in line with the degree of cooperation with the rest of the world.Originality/value – Foresight studies on financial markets and regulation are quite rare. This may be explained by the difficulty to forecast what will be their evolution in the coming decades, not least because finance is fundamentally unstable. This paper provides a framework to consider what could be the best strategy of regulators in such an unstable environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present a survey by GLOBESCAN for Ethical Markets Media, LLC which was released at the "Beyond GDP" Conference in the European Parliament, 19-20 November. Design/methodology/approach - The methodology is survey based. Findings - Three-quarters of people in ten countries agree that their governments should look beyond economics and include health, social and environmental statistics in measuring national progress. Originality/value - This paper is contrary to the accepted view of appropriate national growth measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose |!|#8211; This article aims to focus on how to ensure that Future-Oriented Technology Assessment (FTA) activities have an impact on decision-making. On the basis of the extensive experience of the authors, this article seeks to offer suggestions regarding the factors that may help policy makers, academics, consultants, and others involved in FTA projects, to produce useful and meaningful contributions to decision-making processes.Design/methodology/approach |!|#8211; The methodology deployed for this article is empirical. It is based on the lessons extracted and evidence produced by the authors|!|#39; hundreds of diverse global consulting engagements as well as their analytical work on the subject. Added together the authors of this paper have engaged in over 80 years of professional practice. The article summarizes the results of presentations given by the authors and the ensuing discussion that occurred at the conference: Futures Oriented Technology Analysis 2011, held at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville on 13 May.Findings |!|#8211; Impactful FTA starts with the selection of the appropriate methodologies and skills for the specific anticipatory task. Arguing on the basis of experience, the authors point out that the effective impact of FTA projects on decision-making depends on a strong grasp of the principles of foresight and project design, an educated client with clear expectations and a strong commitment, well-developed communication efforts throughout, and considerable managerial capacity both on the demand and supply sides of the process.Originality/value |!|#8211; By bringing the evidence of experience to bear, this article adds value to existing academic and practitioner discussions of the effectiveness of FTA for decision-making. The article provides an original vantage point on key questions being posed by both users and suppliers of forward-looking activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a research paper which compares the potential of healthcare innovations in foresight and Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) of the European Commission (EC) to enhance their visions and align perspectives. The research employed the Dynamo approach to analyse the similarities and variations of innovation entities and characterizes them through codified taxonomy on innovation in Europe. Results show that the perspectives of both FP7 and foresight community on healthcare innovations are aligned on higher degree. It suggests that only few themes of innovation were not addressed by both perspectives.

The article presents a research paper which compares the nature and degree of difference in foresight style throughout six world regions in Europe. It explores the influences of political, socio-economic and cultural conditions on foresight style and the potential of policy tool transfer and international learning to reduce such influences. It tests the hypothesis that foresight style is being affected by regional contexts by considering domain coverage, time horizons, and political and economic traditions. Results demonstrate the variance of foresight style dimensions between regions in terms of domain areas, time horizons, and participation levels and group identity.

The article presents a research paper which explores the joint foresight exercises' potential for joint programming, which was highlighted in the development of European Research Area (ERA). It analyses the situation of trans-national foresight collaboration, including its projected benefits and challenges. It says that the potential and of joint foresight remains high, despite not being conducted in a completely fledged manner. Results suggest that EFMN is a valuable information source that holds a central, synergistic and complementary role to advance joint foresight.