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As the demand for electricity, electrification, and renewable energy rises, accurate forecasting and flexible energy management become imperative. Distribution network operators face capacity limits set by regional grids, risking economic penalties if exceeded. This study examined data-driven approaches of load forecasting to address these challenges on a city scale through a use case study of Eskilstuna, Sweden. Multiple Linear Regression was used to model electric load data, identifying key calendar and meteorological variables through a rolling origin validation process, using three years of historical data. Despite its low cost, Multiple Linear Regression outperforms the more expensive non-linear Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and both outperform the "weekly Naïve" benchmark with a relative Root Mean Square Errors of 32–34% and 39–40%, respectively. Best-practice hyperparameter settings were derived, and they emphasize frequent re-training, maximizing the training data size, and setting a lag size larger than or equal to the forecast horizon for improved accuracy. Combining both models into an ensemble could the enhance accuracy. This paper demonstrates that robust load forecasts can be achieved by leveraging domain knowledge and statistical analysis, utilizing readily available machine learning libraries. The methodology for achieving this is presented within the paper. These models have the potential for economic optimization and load-shifting strategies, offering valuable insights into sustainable energy management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The layout and configuration of urban infrastructure are essential for the orderly operation and healthy development of cities. With the promotion and popularization of new energy vehicles, the modeling and prediction of charging pile usage and allocation have garnered significant attention from governments and enterprises. Short-term demand forecasting for charging piles is crucial for their efficient operation. However, existing prediction models lack a discussion on the appropriate time window, resulting in limitations in station-level predictions. Recognizing the temporal nature of charging pile occupancy, this paper proposes a novel stacked-LSTM model called attention-SLSTM that integrates an attention mechanism to predict the charging demand of electric vehicles at the station level over the next few hours. To evaluate its performance, this paper compares it with several methods. The experimental results demonstrate that the attention-SLSTM model outperforms both LSTM and stacked-LSTM models. Deep learning methods generally outperform traditional time series forecasting methods. In the test set, MAE is 1.6860, RMSE is 2.5040, and MAPE is 9.7680%. Compared to the stacked-LSTM model, MAE and RMSE are reduced by 4.7%and 5%, respectively; while MAPE value decreases by 1.3%, making it superior to LSTM overall. Furthermore, subsequent experiments compare prediction performance among different charging stations, which confirms that the attention-SLSTM model exhibits excellent predictive capabilities within a six-step (2 h) window. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to report on the state of the art of the literature on the most recent challenges in the energy domain that can be addressed through the use of quantum computing technology. More in detail, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the scope of the literature review considered in this paper is specifically limited to forecasting, grid management (namely, scheduling, dispatching, stability, and reliability), battery production, solar cell production, green hydrogen and ammonia production, and carbon capture. These challenges have been identified as the most relevant business needs currently expressed by energy companies on their path towards a net-zero economy. A critical discussion of the most relevant methodological approaches and experimental setups is provided, together with an overview of future research directions. Overall, the key finding of the paper, based on the proposed literature review, is twofold: namely, (1) quantum computing has the potential to trigger significant transformation in the energy domain by drastically reducing CO2 emissions, especially those relative to battery production, solar cell production, green hydrogen and ammonia production, as well as point-source and direct-air carbon capture technology; and (2) quantum computing offers enhanced optimization capability relative to relevant challenges that concern forecasting solar and wind resources, as well as managing power demand, facility allocation, and ensuring reliability and stability in power grids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a kind of discrete-time sliding-mode predictive control (SMPC) based on a nonlinear sliding function for permanent-magnet synchronous motors' (PMSMs') speed control to improve the convergence performance. Compared with traditional sliding-mode predictive control based on a linear sliding function, the proposed SMPC has a faster convergence rate thanks to the design of a nonlinear fast terminal sliding function. Moreover, one-step prediction is employed, which greatly simplifies the algorithm and improves the real-time performance of its operation. The sliding state will follow the expected trajectory of a predefined sliding-mode reaching law. The stability and convergence performance of the proposed method is analyzed. The results of the theoretical analysis, simulations, and experiments indicate that the proposed method has excellent convergence performance and robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and reliable medium- and long-term load forecasting is crucial for the rational planning and operation of power systems. However, existing methods often struggle to accurately extract and capture long-term dependencies in load data, leading to poor predictive accuracy. Therefore, this paper proposes a medium- and long-term residential load forecasting method based on FEDformer, aiming to capture long-term temporal dependencies of load data in the frequency domain while considering factors such as electricity prices and temperature, ultimately improving the accuracy of medium- and long-term load forecasting. The proposed model employs Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) for frequency domain transformation of time-series data to address the Gibbs phenomenon caused by the use of Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) in FEDformer. Additionally, causal convolution and attention mechanisms are applied in the frequency domain to enhance the model's capability to capture long-term dependencies. The model is evaluated using real-world load data from power systems, and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively learns the temporal and nonlinear characteristics of load data. Compared to other baseline models, DCTformer improves prediction accuracy by 37.5% in terms of MSE, 26.9% in terms of MAE, and 26.24% in terms of RMSE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) power stations generally lack historical meteorological data, which is one of the main reasons for their insufficient power prediction accuracy. To address this issue, this paper proposes a power prediction method for regional distributed PV power stations based on meteorological encryption and spatio-temporal graph networks. First, inverse distance weighted meteorological encryption technology is used to achieve the comprehensive coverage of key meteorological resources based on the geographical locations of PV power stations and the meteorological resources of weather stations. Next, the historical power correlations between PV power stations are analyzed, and highly correlated stations are connected to construct a topological graph structure. Then, an improved spatio-temporal graph network model is established based on this graph to deeply mine the spatio-temporal characteristics of regional PV power stations. Furthermore, a dual-layer attention mechanism is added to further learn the feature attributes of nodes and enhance the spatio-temporal features extracted by the spatio-temporal graph network, ultimately achieving power prediction for regional PV power stations. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model demonstrates excellent prediction accuracy, robustness, extensive generalization capability, and broad applicability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In solar forecasting, it is common practice for solar data (be it irradiance or photovoltaic power) to be converted into a stationary index (e.g., clear-sky or clearness index) before being used as inputs for solar-forecasting models. However, its actual impact is rarely quantified. Thus, this paper aims to study the impact of including this processing step in the modeling workflow within the scope of very-short-term spatio-temporal forecasting. Several forecasting models are considered, and the observed impact is shown to be model-dependent. Persistence does not benefit from this for such short timescales; however, the statistical models achieve an additional 0.5 to 2.5 percentual points (PPs) in terms of the forecasting skill. Machine-learning (ML) models achieve 0.9 to 1.9 more PPs compared to a linear regression, indicating that stationarization reveals non-linear patterns in the data. The exception is Random Forest, which underperforms in comparison with the other models. Lastly, the inclusion of solar elevation and azimuth angles as inputs is tested since these are easy to compute and can inform the model on time-dependent patterns. Only the cases where the input is not made stationary, or the underperforming Random Forest model, seem to benefit from this. This indicates that the apparent Sun position data can compensate for the lack of stationarization in the solar inputs and can help the models to differentiate the daily and seasonal variability from the shorter-term, weather-driven variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Socioeconomic growth and population increase are driving a constant global demand for energy. Renewable energy is emerging as a leading solution to minimise the use of fossil fuels. However, renewable resources are characterised by significant intermittency and unpredictability, which impact their energy production and integration into the power grid. Forecasting models are increasingly being developed to address these challenges and have become crucial as renewable energy sources are integrated in energy systems. In this paper, a comparative analysis of forecasting methods for renewable energy production is developed, focusing on photovoltaic and wind power. A review of state-of-the-art techniques is conducted to synthesise and categorise different forecasting models, taking into account climatic variables, optimisation algorithms, pre-processing techniques, and various forecasting horizons. By integrating diverse techniques such as optimisation algorithms and pre-processing methods and carefully selecting the forecast horizon, it is possible to highlight the accuracy and stability of forecasts. Overall, the ongoing development and refinement of forecasting methods are crucial to achieve a sustainable and reliable energy future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aiming at the current power control problems of grid-side electrochemical energy storage power station in multiple scenarios, this paper proposes an optimal power model prediction control (MPC) strategy for electrochemical energy storage power station. This method is based on the power conversion system (PCS) grid-connected voltage and current to establish a power prediction model for energy storage power stations, achieving a one-step prediction of the power of the power station. The power prediction error is used as a power regulation feedback quantity to correct the reference power input. Considering the state of charge ( S O C ) constraint of the battery, partition the S O C into different states. Using S O C as the power regulation feedback, the power of the battery compartment can be adjusted according to the range of the battery S O C to prevent S O C from exceeding the limit value, simultaneously calculating the power loss of the energy storage power station to improve the energy efficiency. The objective function is to minimize the power deviation and power loss of the power station. By solving the objective function, the optimal switching voltage vector of the converter output is achieved to achieve optimal power control of the energy storage power station. The simulation results in various application scenarios of the energy storage power station show that the proposed control strategy enables the power of the storage station to quickly and accurately track the demand of grid scheduling, achieving the optimal power control of the electrochemical energy storage power station. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hybrid power plants have recently emerged as reliable and flexible electricity generation stations by combining multiple renewable energy sources, energy storage systems (ESS), and fossil-based output. However, the effective operation of the hybrid power plants to ensure continuous energy dispatch under challenging conditions is a complex task. This paper proposes a dispatch engine (DE) based on mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) for the planning and management of hybrid power plants. To maintain the committed electricity output, the dispatch engine will provide schedules for operation over extended time periods as well as monitor and reschedule the operation in real time. Through precise prediction of the load and the photovoltaic (PV) and wind power outputs, the proposed approach guarantees optimum scheduling. The precise predictions of the load, PV, and wind power levels are achieved by employing a predictor of the Feed-Forward Neural Network (FFNN) type. With such a dispatch engine, the operational costs of the hybrid power plants and the use of diesel generators (DGs) are both minimized. A case study is carried out to assess the feasibility of the proposed dispatch engine. Real-time measurement data pertaining to load and the wind and PV power outputs are obtained from different locations in the Sultanate of Oman. The real-time data are utilized to predict the future levels of power output from PV and from the wind farm over the course of 24 h. The predicted power levels are then used in combination with a PV–Wind–DG–ESS–Grid hybrid plant to evaluate the performance of the proposed dispatch engine. The proposed approach is implemented and simulated using MATLAB. The results of the simulation reveal the proposed FFNN's powerful forecasting abilities. In addition, the results demonstrate that adopting the proposed DE can minimize the use of DG units and reduce a plant's running expenses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term load forecasting plays a crucial role in managing the energy consumption of buildings in cities. Accurate forecasting enables residents to reduce energy waste and facilitates timely decision-making for power companies' energy management. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid forecasting model designed to predict load series in multiple households. Our proposed method integrates multivariate variational mode decomposition (MVMD), the whale optimization algorithm (WOA), and a temporal fusion transformer (TFT) to perform one-step forecasts. MVMD is utilized to decompose the load series into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), extracting characteristics at distinct scales. We use sample entropy to determine the appropriate number of decomposition levels and the penalty factor of MVMD. The WOA is utilized to optimize the hyperparameters of MVMD-TFT to enhance its overall performance. We generate two distinct cases originating from BCHydro. Experimental results show that our method has achieved excellent performance in both cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sierra Leone is an electricity-poor country with one of the lowest electricity consumption per capita rates across sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, with ambitious targets to transform and stimulate its economy in the coming decades, energy demand forecasting becomes an integral component of successful energy planning. Through applying the MAED-D (version 2.0.0) demand software, this research study aims to generate Sierra Leone's electricity demand forecasts from 2023 to 2050. Three novel scenarios (baseline-, high-, and low-demand) are developed based on socio-economic and technical parameters. The baseline scenario considers the current electricity sector as business-as-usual; the high-demand scenario examines an ambitious development future with increased economic diversification and mechanisation, and the low-demand scenario examines more reserved future development. The modelled scenario results project an increase in electricity demand ranging from 7.32 PJ and 12.23 PJ to 5.53 PJ for the baseline-, high-, and low-demand scenarios, respectively, by 2050. This paper provides a base set of best-available data needed to produce an electricity demand model for Sierra Leone which can be used as a capacity-building tool for in-country energy planning alongside further integration into data modelling pipelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting (DAEPF) holds critical significance for stakeholders in energy markets, particularly in areas with large amounts of renewable energy sources (RES) integration. In Japan, the proliferation of RES has led to instances wherein day-ahead electricity prices drop to nearly zero JPY/kWh during peak RES production periods, substantially affecting transactions between electricity retailers and consumers. This paper introduces an innovative DAEPF framework employing a Convolutional Neural Network–Long Short-Term Memory (CNN–LSTM) model designed to predict day-ahead electricity prices in the Kyushu area of Japan. To mitigate the inherent uncertainties associated with neural networks, a novel ensemble learning approach is implemented to bolster the DAEPF model's robustness and prediction accuracy. The CNN–LSTM model is verified to outperform a standalone LSTM model in both prediction accuracy and computation time. Additionally, applying a natural logarithm transformation to the target day-ahead electricity price as a pre-processing technique has proven necessary for higher prediction accuracy. A novel "policy-versus-policy" strategy is proposed to address the prediction problem of the zero prices, halving the computation time of the traditional two-stage method. The efficacy of incorporating a suite of multimodal features: areal day-ahead electricity price, day-ahead system electricity price, areal actual power generation, areal meteorological forecasts, calendar forecasts, alongside the rolling features of areal day-ahead electricity price, as explanatory variables to significantly enhance DAEPF accuracy has been validated. With the full integration of the proposed features, the CNN–LSTM ensemble model achieves its highest accuracy, reaching performance metrics of R 2 , MAE, and RMSE of 0.787, 1.936 JPY/kWh, and 2.630 JPY/kWh, respectively, during the test range from 1 March 2023 to 31 March 2023, underscoring the advantages of a comprehensive, multi-dimensional approach to DAEPF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transition to smart grids is revolutionizing the management and distribution of electrical energy. Nowadays, power systems must precisely estimate real-time loads and use adaptive regulation to operate in the era of sustainable energy. To address these issues, this paper presents a new approach—a hybrid neuro-fuzzy system—that combines neural networks with fuzzy logic. We use neural networks' adaptability to describe complex load patterns and fuzzy logic's interpretability to fine-tune control techniques in our approach. Our improved load forecasting system can now respond to changes in real-time due to the combination of these two powerful methodologies. Developing, training, and implementing the forecasting and control system are detailed in this article, which also explores the theoretical underpinnings of our hybrid neuro-fuzzy approach. We demonstrate how the technology improves grid stability and the accuracy of load forecasts by using adaptive control methods. Furthermore, comprehensive simulations confirm the proposed technology, showcasing its smooth integration with smart grid infrastructure. Better energy management is just the beginning of what our method can accomplish; it also paves the way for a more sustainable energy future that is easier on the planet and its inhabitants. In conclusion, this study's innovative approach to adaptive control and real-time load forecasting advances smart grid technology, which, in turn, improves sustainability and energy efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term wind power forecasting has difficult problems due to the very large variety of speeds of the wind, which is a key factor in producing energy. From the point of view of the whole country, an important problem is predicting the total impact of wind power's contribution to the country's energy demands for succeeding days. Accordingly, efficient planning of classical power sources may be made for the next day. This paper will investigate this direction of research. Based on historical data, a few neural network predictors will be combined into an ensemble that is responsible for the next day's wind power generation. The problem is difficult since wind farms are distributed in large regions of the country, where different wind conditions exist. Moreover, the information on wind speed is not available. This paper proposes and compares different structures of an ensemble combined from three neural networks. The best accuracy has been obtained with the application of an MLP combiner. The results of numerical experiments have shown a significant reduction in prediction errors compared to the naïve approach. The improvement in results with this naïve solution is close to two in the one-day-ahead prediction task. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar forecasting is becoming increasingly important due to the exponential growth in total global solar capacity each year. More photovoltaic (PV) penetration in the grid poses problems for grid stability due to the inherent intermittent and variable nature of PV power production. Therefore, forecasting of solar quantities becomes increasingly important to grid operators and market participants. This review presents the most recent relevant studies focusing on short-term forecasting of solar irradiance and PV power production. Recent research has increasingly turned to machine learning to address this challenge. The paper provides a discussion about building a solar forecasting model, including evaluation measures and machine learning method selection through analysed literature. Given that machine learning is data-driven, the focus of this review has been placed on data sources referenced in the literature. Open-access data sources have been compiled and explored. The main contribution of this paper is the establishment of a benchmark for assessing the performance of solar forecasting models. This benchmark utilizes the mentioned open-source datasets, offering a standardized platform for future research. It serves the crucial purpose of streamlining investigations and facilitating direct comparisons among different forecasting methodologies in the field of solar forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper forecasts the energy efficiency coefficients at the Polish province level (NUT-2), based on imperfect and contradictory knowledge. On the one hand, we have information on the aggregated national energy efficiency coefficients in the industrial, transport, household, and service sectors. On the other hand, we also have information on the energy intensity at the Polish province level. Since the two samples are of different natures and known with uncertainty, we are obviously dealing with an inverse stochastic problem whose solution requires particular statistical devices. The applied technique of non-extensive cross-entropy econometrics generalizes the Shannon-Kullback-Leibler approach based on the Gaussian assumptions. Its justification is explained throughout this paper from both methodological and empirical points of view. The model forecasts lead to the high-value energy efficiency estimates from quasi-unstructured sets of information. This constitutes the main contribution of this research. These outputs should provide energy policy units with valuable new devices for the optimization of the energy management processes on a disaggregated local level where, by contrast, different agents and households act decisively. On a global level, the proposed technique can be applied in different EU countries and elsewhere, in the context of experimental official statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in solar photovoltaic (PV) generation forecasts is imperative for the efficient and reliable operation of the power grid. In this paper, a data-driven non-parametric probabilistic method based on the Naïve Bayes (NB) classification algorithm and Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) of evidence is proposed for day-ahead probabilistic PV power forecasting. This NB-DST method extends traditional deterministic solar PV forecasting methods by quantifying the uncertainty of their forecasts by estimating the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of their forecast errors and forecast variables. The statistical performance of this method is compared with the analog ensemble method and the persistence ensemble method under three different weather conditions using real-world data. The study results reveal that the proposed NB-DST method coupled with an artificial neural network model outperforms the other methods in that its estimated CDFs have lower spread, higher reliability, and sharper probabilistic forecasts with better accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demand response management (DRM) plays a crucial role in the prospective development of smart grids. The precise estimation of electricity demand for individual houses is vital for optimizing the operation and planning of the power system. Accurate forecasting of the required components holds significance as it can substantially impact the final cost, mitigate risks, and support informed decision-making. In this paper, a forecasting approach employing neural networks for smart grid demand-side management is proposed. The study explores various enhanced artificial neural network (ANN) architectures for forecasting smart grid consumption. The performance of the ANN approach in predicting energy demands is evaluated through a comparison with three statistical models: a time series model, an auto-regressive model, and a hybrid model. Experimental results demonstrate the ability of the proposed neural network framework to deliver accurate and reliable energy demand forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of crude petroleum production in oil fields plays a crucial role in analyzing reservoir dynamics, formulating measures to increase production, and selecting ways to improve recovery factors. Current prediction methods mainly include reservoir engineering methods, numerical simulation methods, and deep learning methods, and the required prerequisite is a large amount of historical data. However, when the data used to train the model are insufficient, the prediction effect will be reduced dramatically. In this paper, a time series-related meta-learning (TsrML) method is proposed that can be applied to the prediction of petroleum time series containing small samples and can address the limitations of traditional deep learning methods for the few-shot problem, thereby supporting the development of production measures. The approach involves an architecture divided into meta-learner and base-learner, which learns initialization parameters from 89 time series datasets. It can be quickly adapted to achieve excellent and accurate predictions with small samples in the oil field. Three case studies were performed using time series from two actual oil fields. For objective evaluation, the proposed method is compared with several traditional methods. Compared to traditional deep learning methods, RMSE is decreased by 0.1766 on average, and MAPE is decreased by 4.8013 on average. The empirical results show that the proposed method outperforms the traditional deep learning methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate well productivity prediction plays a significant role in formulating reservoir development plans. However, traditional well productivity prediction methods lack accuracy in tight gas reservoirs; therefore, this paper quantitatively evaluates the correlations between absolute open flow and the critical parameters for Linxing tight gas reservoirs through statistical analysis. Dominant control factors are obtained by considering reservoir engineering theories, and a novel machine learning-based well productivity prediction method is proposed for tight gas reservoirs. The adaptability of the productivity prediction model is assessed through machine learning and field data analysis. Combined with the typical decline curve analysis, the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of a single well in the tight gas reservoir is forecasted in an appropriate range. The results of the study include 10 parameters (such as gas saturation) identified as the dominant controlling factors for well productivity and geological factors that impact the productivity in this area compared to fracturing parameters. According to the prediction results of the three models, the R2 of Support Vector Regression (SVR), Back Propagation (BP), and Random Forest (RF) models are 0.72, 0.87, and 0.91, respectively. The results indicate that RF has a more accurate prediction. In addition, the RF model is more suitable for medium and high-production wells based on the actual field data. Based on this model, it is verified that the productivity of low-producing wells is affected by water production. This study confirms the model's reliability and application value by predicting recoverable reserves for a single well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energies have become pivotal in the global energy landscape. Their adoption is crucial for phasing out fossil fuels and promoting environmentally friendly energy solutions. In recent years, the energy management system (EMS) concept has emerged to manage the power grid. EMS optimizes electric grid operations through advanced metering, automation, and communication technologies. A critical component of EMS is power forecasting, which facilitates precise energy grid scheduling. This research paper introduces a deep learning hybrid model employing convolutional neural network–long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) for short-term photovoltaic (PV) solar energy forecasting. The proposed method integrates the variational mode decomposition (VMD) algorithm with the CNN-LSTM model to predict PV power output from a solar farm in Boussada, Algeria, spanning 1 January 2019, to 31 December 2020. The performance of the developed model is benchmarked against other deep learning models across various time horizons (15, 30, and 60 min): variational mode decomposition–convolutional neural network (VMD-CNN), variational mode decomposition–long short-term memory (VMD-LSTM), and convolutional neural network–long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM), which provide a comprehensive evaluation. Our findings demonstrate that the developed model outperforms other methods, offering promising results in solar power forecasting. This research contributes to the primary goal of enhancing EMS by providing accurate solar energy forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents the recent developments in the field of evaluation of the breakdown performance and remaining lifetime of XLPE insulation and analyzes the accuracy of existing lifetime prediction models through experiments. The effects of the crystalline morphology, cable thickness and sampling location of XLPE insulation on the evaluation of short-term breakdown performance are reviewed in the context of the experiments. The study reviews the application of the Ramu, Simoni, and Ramu multi-stress lifetime prediction models and explores the other remaining lifetime prediction models under the combined electrothermal stresses which are applicable to XLPE insulation. Finally, this paper recommends the most effective engineering evaluation methods and provides suggestions for improving the electrical performance of XLPE insulation for high-voltage cables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to forecast New York and Los Angeles gasoline spot prices on a daily frequency. The dataset includes gasoline prices and a big set of 128 other relevant variables spanning the period from 17 February 2004 to 26 March 2022. These variables were fed to three tree-based machine learning algorithms: decision trees, random forest, and XGBoost. Furthermore, a variable importance measure (VIM) technique was applied to identify and rank the most important explanatory variables. The optimal model, a trained random forest, achieves a mean absolute percent error (MAPE) in the out-of-sample of 3.23% for the New York and 3.78% for the Los Angeles gasoline spot prices. The first lag, AR (1), of gasoline is the most important variable in both markets; the top five variables are all energy-related. This paper can strengthen the understanding of price determinants and has the potential to inform strategic decisions and policy directions within the energy sector, making it a valuable asset for both industry practitioners and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind prediction has consistently been in the spotlight as a crucial element in achieving efficient wind power generation and reducing operational costs. In recent years, with the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, its application in the field of wind prediction has made significant strides. Focusing on the process of AI-based wind prediction modeling, this paper provides a comprehensive summary and discussion of key techniques and models in data preprocessing, feature extraction, relationship learning, and parameter optimization. Building upon this, three major challenges are identified in AI-based wind prediction: the uncertainty of wind data, the incompleteness of feature extraction, and the complexity of relationship learning. In response to these challenges, targeted suggestions are proposed for future research directions, aiming to promote the effective application of AI technology in the field of wind prediction and address the crucial issues therein. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces an innovative framework for wind power prediction that focuses on the future of energy forecasting utilizing intelligent deep learning and strategic feature engineering. This research investigates the application of a state-of-the-art deep learning model for wind energy prediction to make extremely short-term forecasts using real-time data on wind generation from New South Wales, Australia. In contrast with typical approaches to wind energy forecasting, this model relies entirely on historical data and strategic feature engineering to make predictions, rather than relying on meteorological parameters. A hybrid feature engineering strategy that integrates features from several feature generation techniques to obtain the optimal input parameters is a significant contribution to this work. The model's performance is assessed using key metrics, yielding optimal results with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 8.76, Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 139.49, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 11.81, R-squared score of 0.997, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 4.85%. Additionally, the proposed framework outperforms six other deep learning and hybrid deep learning models in terms of wind energy prediction accuracy. These findings highlight the importance of advanced data analysis for feature generation in data processing, pointing to its key role in boosting the precision of forecasting applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the sake of conducting distribution network reliability prediction in an accurate and efficient manner, a model for distribution network reliability prediction (IAO-LSSVM) based on an improved Aquila Optimizer (IAO) optimized mixed-kernel Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) is thus proposed in this paper. First, the influencing factors that greatly affect the distribution network reliability are screened out through grey relational analysis. Afterwards, the radial basis kernel function and polynomial kernel function are combined and a mixed kernel LSSVM model is constructed, which has better generalization ability. However, for the AO algorithm, it is easy to fall into local extremum. In such case, the AO algorithm is innovatively improved after both the improved tent chaotic initialization strategy and adaptive t-distribution strategy are introduced. Next, the parameters of the mixed-kernel LSSVM model are optimized and the IAO-LSSVM distribution network reliability prediction model is established through using the improved AO algorithm. In the end, the prediction results and errors of the IAO-LSSVM prediction model and other models are compared in the actual distribution network applications. It is revealed that the IAO-LSSVM prediction model proposed in this paper features higher accuracy and better stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The worldwide appeal has increased for the development of new technologies that allow the use of green energy. In this category, photovoltaic energy (PV) stands out, especially with regard to the presentation of forecasting methods of solar irradiance or solar power from photovoltaic generators. The development of battery energy storage systems (BESSs) has been investigated to overcome difficulties in electric grid operation, such as using energy in the peaks of load or economic dispatch. These technologies are often applied in the sense that solar irradiance is used to charge the battery. We present a review of solar forecasting methods used together with a PV-BESS. Despite the hundreds of papers investigating solar irradiation forecasting, only a few present discussions on its use on the PV-BESS set. Therefore, we evaluated 49 papers from scientific databases published over the last six years. We performed a quantitative analysis and reported important aspects found in the papers, such as the error metrics addressed, granularity, and where the data are obtained from. We also describe applications of the BESS, present a critical analysis of the current perspectives, and point out promising future research directions on forecasting approaches in conjunction with PV-BESS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The maintenance of electrical grids is crucial for improving their reliability, performance, and cost-effectiveness. It involves employing various strategies to ensure smooth operation and address potential issues. With the advancement of digital technologies, utilizing time-series prediction has emerged as a valuable approach to enhance maintenance practices in electrical systems. The utilization of various recorded data from electrical grid components plays a crucial role in digitally enabled maintenance. However, the comprehensive exploration of time-series data prediction for maintenance is still lacking. This review paper extensively explores different time series that can be utilized to support maintenance efforts in electrical grids with regard to different maintenance strategies and grid components. The digitization of the electrical grids has enabled the collection of diverse time-series data from various network components. In this context, the paper provides an overview of how these time-series and historical-fault data can be utilized for maintenance purposes in electrical grids. Various maintenance levels and time series used for maintenance purposes in different components of the electrical grid are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The load forecasting research for an NPS faces challenges including a high model accuracy, non-sharing of data, and a high communication cost. This paper proposes a load forecasting method for an NPS, based on efficient federated transfer learning (FTL). The adversarial feature extractor is added on the basis that FTL can effectively transfer the parameter features of the non-mask load to the local load data, and make up for the loss of mask load prediction accuracy. In order to improve the efficiency of the gradient compression of federated learning (FL), a depth dynamic threshold compression sensing method is proposed, which replaces the sparse signal in compressed sensing via the U-Net model and achieves an observation dimension reduction through a convolutional neural network (CNN). The experimental results show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the load forecasting method proposed in this paper are reduced by 9.6% and 2.31 kW, on average, when the load data are covered up to different degrees. Compared with the traditional FL model, the proposed compression algorithm saves 23.5% of the communication cost, without changing the accuracy of the model. The proposed prediction framework is easily interpretable, and robust under different validation metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of smart grids and distributed energy sources, the home energy management system (HEMS) is becoming a hot topic of research as a hub for connecting customers and utilities for energy visualization. Accurate forecasting of future short-term residential electricity demand for each major appliance is a key part of the energy management system. This paper aims to explore the current research status of household-level short-term load forecasting, summarize the advantages and disadvantages of various forecasting methods, and provide research ideas for short-term household load forecasting and household energy management. Firstly, the paper analyzes the latest research results and research trends in deep learning load forecasting methods in terms of network models, feature extraction, and adaptive learning; secondly, it points out the importance of combining probabilistic forecasting methods that take into account load uncertainty with deep learning techniques; and further explores the implications and methods for device-level as well as ultra-short-term load forecasting. In addition, the paper also analyzes the importance of short-term household load forecasting for the scheduling of electricity consumption in household energy management systems. Finally, the paper points out the problems in the current research and proposes suggestions for future development of short-term household load forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasts and their corresponding optimized operation plans for energy plants never match perfectly, especially if they have a horizon of several days. In this paper, we suggest a concept to cope with uncertain load forecasts by reserving a share of the energy storage system for short-term balancing. Depending on the amount of uncertainty in the load forecasts, we schedule the energy system with a specific reduced storage capacity at the day-ahead market. For the day of delivery, we examine the optimal thresholds when the remaining capacity should be used to balance differences between forecast and reality at the intraday market. With the help of a case study for a simple sector-coupled energy system with a demand for cooling, it is shown that the energy costs could be reduced by up to 10% using the optimal reserve share. The optimal reserve share depends on the forecast quality and the time series of loads and prices. Generally, the trends and qualitative results can be transferred to other systems. However, of course, an individual evaluation before the realization is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large proportion of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is connected to the power grid, and its volatility and stochasticity have significant impacts on the power system. Accurate PV power forecasting is of great significance in optimizing the safe operation of the power grid and power market transactions. In this paper, a novel dual-channel PV power forecasting method based on a temporal convolutional network (TCN) is proposed. The method deeply integrates the PV station feature data with the model computing mechanism through the dual-channel model architecture; utilizes the combination of multihead attention (MHA) and TCN to extract the multidimensional spatio-temporal features between other meteorological variables and the PV power; and utilizes a single TCN to fully extract the temporal constraints of the power sequence elements. The weighted fusion of the dual-channel feature data ultimately yields the ideal forecasting results. The experimental data in this study are from a 26.52 kW PV power plant in central Australia. The experiments were carried out over seven different input window widths, and the two models that currently show superior performance within the field of PV power forecasting: the convolutional neural network (CNN), and the convolutional neural network combined with a long and short-term memory network (CNN_LSTM), are used as the baseline models. The experimental results show that the proposed model and the baseline models both obtained the best forecasting performance over a 1-day input window width, while the proposed model exhibited superior forecasting performance compared to the baseline model. It also shows that designing model architectures that deeply integrate the data input method with the model mechanism has research potential in the field of PV power forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation forecasting is an important research topic, aiming to mitigate variability caused by weather conditions and improve power generation planning. Climate factors, including solar irradiance, temperature, and cloud cover, influence the energy conversion achieved by PV systems. Long-term weather forecasting improves PV power generation planning, while short-term forecasting enhances control methods, such as managing ramp rates. The stochastic nature of weather variables poses a challenge for linear regression methods. Consequently, advanced, state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) approaches capable of handling non-linear data, such as long short-term memory (LSTM), have emerged. This paper introduces the implementation of a multivariate machine learning model to forecast PV power generation, considering multiple weather variables. A deep learning solution was implemented to analyze weather variables in a short time horizon. Utilizing a hidden Markov model for data preprocessing, an LSTM model was trained using the Alice Spring dataset provided by DKA Solar Center. The proposed workflow demonstrated superior performance compared to the results obtained by state-of-the-art methods, including support vector machine, radiation classification coordinate with LSTM (RCC-LSTM), and ESNCNN specifically concerning the proposed multi-input single-output LSTM model. This improvement is attributed to incorporating input features such as active power, temperature, humidity, horizontal and diffuse irradiance, and wind direction, with active power serving as the output variable. The proposed workflow achieved a mean square error (MSE) of 2.17 × 10 − 7 , a root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.65 × 10 − 4 , and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.04 × 10 − 4 . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transient responses of distributed energy resources (DERs) in a microgrid are dynamically correlated in spatial and temporal dimensions. Hence, the transient stability prediction in microgrids would require an effective modeling of time-varying correlations and the mining of spatial–temporal features of electrical data. This paper proposes a refined DER-level transient stability prediction method for microgrids considering the time-varying spatial–temporal correlations of DERs. First, the spatial–temporal dynamic correlation of DERs was extracted and modeled by an attention-based mechanism. Then, a spatial–temporal graph convolution network was proposed to predict the dynamics of unstable DERs and the instability severity trend in a microgrid. The TSP model consisted of three parts: (1) several stacked spatial–temporal convolution modules to simultaneously mine the spatial–temporal dynamic features of microgrids, (2) an unstable DER identification module to predict the microgrid system stability and identify unstable DERs, and (3) an instability severity trend prediction module for DERs in a microgrid. The test results on a realistic 16-bus 10-DER microgrid demonstrated that the proposed prediction method possessed the desirable reliability and interpretability and outperformed the state-of-the-art baselines in unstable DER identifications and DER instability severity trend predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of renewable energy sources is becoming increasingly widespread around the world due to various factors, the most relevant of which is the high environmental friendliness of these types of energy resources. However, the large-scale involvement of green energy leads to the creation of distributed energy networks that combine several different generation methods, each of which has its own specific features, and as a result, the data collection and processing necessary to optimize the operation of such energy systems become more relevant. Development of new technologies for the more optimal use of RES is one of the main tasks of modern research in the field of energy, where an important place is assigned to the use of technologies based on artificial intelligence, allowing researchers to significantly increase the efficiency of the use of all types of RES within energy systems. This paper proposes to consider the methodology of application of modern approaches to the assessment of the amount of energy obtained from renewable energy sources based on artificial intelligence technologies, approaches used for data processing and for optimization of the control processes for operating energy systems with the integration of renewable energy sources. The relevance of the work lies in the formation of a general approach applied to the evaluation of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind energy based on the use of artificial intelligence technologies. As a verification of the approach considered by the authors, a number of models for predicting the amount of solar power generation using photovoltaic panels have been implemented, for which modern machine-learning methods have been used. As a result of testing for quality and accuracy, the best results were obtained using a hybrid forecasting model, which combines the joint use of a random forest model applied at the stage of the normalization of the input data, exponential smoothing model, and LSTM model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-precision spatial-temporal wind power prediction technology is of great significance for ensuring the safe and stable operation of power grids. The development of artificial intelligence technology provides a new scheme for modeling with strong spatial-temporal correlation. In addition, the existing prediction models are mostly 'black box' models, lacking interpretability, which may lead to a lack of trust in the model by power grid dispatchers. Therefore, improving the model to obtain interpretability has become an important challenge. In this paper, an interpretable short-term wind power prediction model based on ensemble deep graph neural network is designed. Firstly, the graph network model (GNN) with an attention mechanism is applied to the aggregate and the spatial-temporal features of wind power data are extracted, and the interpretable ability is obtained. Then, the long short-term memory (LSTM) method is used to process the extracted features and establish a wind power prediction model. Finally, the random sampling algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters to improve the learning rate and performance of the model. Through multiple comparative experiments and a case analysis, the results show that the proposed model has a higher prediction accuracy than other traditional models and obtains reasonable interpretability in time and space dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A stable and reliable power system is crucial for human daily lives and economic stability. Power load forecasting is the foundation of dynamically balancing between the power supply and demand sides. However, with the popularity of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, it still struggles to achieve accurate power load forecasting due to the complex patterns and dynamics of load data. To mitigate these issues, this paper proposes a new hybrid model based on a sample convolution and integration network (SCINet) and a long short-term memory network (LSTM) for short-term power load forecasting. Specifically, a feed-forward network (FFN) is first used to enhance the nonlinear representation of the load data to highlight the complex temporal dynamics. The SCINet is then employed to iteratively extract and exchange information about load data at multiple temporal resolutions, capturing the long-term dependencies hidden in the deeper layers. Finally, the LSTM networks are performed to further strengthen the extraction of temporal dependencies. The principal contributions of the proposed model can be summarized as follows: (1) The SCINet with binary tree structure effectively extracts both local and global features, proving advantageous for capturing complex temporal patterns and dynamics; (2) Integrating LSTM into the SCINet-based framework mitigates information loss resulting from interactive downsampling, thereby enhancing the extraction of temporal dependencies; and (3) FNN layers are strategically designed to enhance the nonlinear representations prior to feeding the load data fed into the SCINet and LSTM. Three real-world datasets are used to validate the effectiveness and generalization of the proposed model. Experimental results show that the proposed model has superior performance in terms of evaluation metrics compared with other baseline models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the age of energy transition that we are going through today, many research studies discuss how to develop various approaches to making forecasts aimed at obtaining quantitative assessments of the technical and economic indicators of the energy industry. This paper considers the adaptation of a comprehensive approach to forecasting the structure of energy generation based on the factor and trend approach and using autoregressive and multifactor models that apply a linear regression tool with ridge regularization. To implement this approach, we propose a tool for automated selection of the factors that have the most significant impact on the change in the structure of energy generation. This approach allows us to forecast the dynamics of electricity generation by different types of generating facilities as affected by the key factors in energy transition in the short, medium, and long term. As a result, we obtained quantitative relationships for the energy generation structure. Over the next 10 years, the share of generation using renewable energy sources will increase to 10%, and the share of thermal power plants, on the contrary, will decrease to 50%, despite the growth in demand for electricity. Also, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 30%. We have also provided scientific justification for the sufficient reliability of the forecasts we present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind power is an important energy source that can be used to supply clean energy and meet current energy needs. Despite its advantages in terms of zero emissions, its main drawback is its intermittency. Deterministic approaches to forecast wind power generation based on the annual average wind speed are usually used; however, statistical treatments are more appropriate. In this paper, an intelligent statistical methodology to forecast annual wind power is proposed. The seasonality of wind is determined via a clustering analysis of monthly wind speed probabilistic distribution functions (PDFs) throughout n years. Subsequently, a methodology to build the wind resource typical year (WRTY) for the n + 1 year is introduced to characterize the resource into the so-called statistical seasons (SSs). Then, the wind energy produced at each SS is calculated using its PDFs. Finally, the forecasted annual energy for the n + 1 year is given as the sum of the produced energies in the SSs. A wind farm in Mexico is chosen as a case study. The SSs, WRTY, and seasonal and annual generated energies are estimated and validated. Additionally, the forecasted annual wind energy for the n + 1 year is calculated deterministically from the n year. The results are compared with the measured data, and the former are more accurate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity is crucial for daily life due to the number of activities that depend on it. To forecast future electric load, which changes over time and depends on various factors, grid operators (GOs) must create forecasting models for various time horizons with a high degree of accuracy because the results have a huge impact on their decision-making regarding, for example, the scheduling of power units to supply user consumption in the short or long term or the installation of new power plants. This has led to the exploration of multiple techniques like statistical models and Artificial Intelligence (AI), with Machine-Learning and Deep-Learning algorithms being the most popular in this latter field. This paper proposes a neural network-based model to forecast short-term load for a Colombian grid operator, considering a seven-day time horizon and using an LSTM recurrent neural network with historical load values from a region in Colombia and calendar features such as holidays and the current month corresponding to the target week. Unlike other LSTM implementations found in the literature, in this work, the LSTM cells read multiple load measurements at once, and the additional information (holidays and current month) is concatenated to the output of the LSTM. The result is used to feed a fully connected neural network to obtain the desired forecast. Due to social problems in the country, the load data presents a strange behavior, which, in principle, affects the prediction capacity of the model. Still, it is eventually able to adjust its forecasts accordingly. The regression metric MAPE measures the model performance, with the best predicted week having an error of 1.65% and the worst week having an error of 26.22%. Additionally, prediction intervals are estimated using bootstrapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Spanish electricity market, after the daily market is held in which prices are set for the next day, the secondary and tertiary markets take place, which allow companies more accurate adjustment of the electricity they are able to offer. The objective of this paper is to predict the final price reached in these markets by predicting the supply curve in advance, which is the aggregate of what companies offer. First, we study a procedure to represent the supply curves, and then we consider different machine learning approaches to obtain the day-ahead supply curves for the secondary market. Finally, the predictions of the supply curves are crossed with the system requirements to obtain the expected price predictions. Histogram-Based Gradient Boosting is the best performing algorithm for predicting supply curves. The most relevant variables for the prediction are the lagged values, the daily market price, the price of gas and values of the wind recorded in the Spanish provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is critical for the energy industry. Accurate predictions of future electricity demand are necessary to ensure power systems' reliable and efficient operation. Various STLF models have been proposed in recent years, each with strengths and weaknesses. This paper comprehensively reviews some STLF models, including time series, artificial neural networks (ANNs), regression-based, and hybrid models. It first introduces the fundamental concepts and challenges of STLF, then discusses each model class's main features and assumptions. The paper compares the models in terms of their accuracy, robustness, computational efficiency, scalability, and adaptability and identifies each approach's advantages and limitations. Although this study suggests that ANNs and hybrid models may be the most promising ways to achieve accurate and reliable STLF, additional research is required to handle multiple input features, manage massive data sets, and adjust to shifting energy conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tremendous and fast green transition in Denmark has initiated the large-scale grid-integration of renewable energy sources, electrification of energy consumption, and establishment of PtX and Energy Islands, setting goals for transmission grid development—such as the establishment of new connections—and for grid reconstruction—such as the extensive substitution of overhead lines (OHLs) with underground cables (UGCs). The share of UGCs in the Danish transmission grid is increasing. Presence of UGC has resulted in that resonances of the harmonic impedance characteristics of the transmission grid are brought within the harmonic order range coinciding with the harmonic emission sources and causing systemwide increase of the harmonic voltage distortion in the 400 kV transmission grid. The transformation of the 400 kV transmission grid has given rise to the need to predict harmonic voltage distortion using simulation models to secure an adequate power quality and support investment decisions and harmonic mitigation for the grid stage, which has not yet been established and which differs from the present grid. This paper presents the experiences of Energinet, the Transmission System Operator (TSO) in Denmark, with harmonic distortion in the Danish transmission grid due to the establishment of 400 kV UGCs, and the development of measurement-validated methods for harmonic distortion simulation and prediction. The paper also presents ongoing developments within, and research addressing, the prediction of harmonic distortion in meshed grids; for example, it explores where and how an analytical approach can replace observational studies with many numerical simulations. The methods shall make it possible to predict whether, where in the transmission grid, and for which harmonic orders connections that have not yet been commissioned may cause the violation of the planning levels, and which mitigations are necessary for bringing the harmonic distortion below the planning levels with respect to a given margin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting the electrical load is essential in power system design and growth. It is critical from both a technical and a financial standpoint as it improves the power system performance, reliability, safety, and stability as well as lowers operating costs. The main aim of this paper is to make forecasting models to accurately estimate the electrical load based on the measurements of current electrical loads of the electricity company. The importance of having forecasting models is in predicting the future electrical loads, which will lead to reducing costs and resources, as well as better electric load distribution for electric companies. In this paper, deep learning algorithms are used to forecast the electrical loads; namely: (1) Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), (2) Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and (3) Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). The models were tested, and the GRU model achieved the best performance in terms of accuracy and the lowest error. Results show that the GRU model achieved an R-squared of 90.228%, Mean Square Error (MSE) of 0.00215, and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.03266. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Furan tests provide a non-intrusive and cost-effective method of estimating the degradation of paper insulation, which is critical for ensuring the reliability of power grids. However, conducting routine furan tests can be expensive and challenging, highlighting the need for alternative methods, such as machine learning algorithms, to predict furan concentrations. To establish the generalizability and robustness of the furan prediction model, this study investigates two distinct datasets from different geographical locations, Utility A and Utility B. Three scenarios are proposed: in the first scenario, a round-robin cross-validation method was used, with 75% of the data for training and the remaining 25% for testing. The second scenario involved training the model entirely on Utility A and testing it on Utility B. In the third scenario, the datasets were merged, and round-robin cross-validation was applied, similar to the first scenario. The findings reveal the effectiveness of machine learning algorithms in predicting furan concentrations, and particularly the stacked generalized ensemble method, offering a non-intrusive and cost-effective alternative to traditional testing methods. The results could significantly impact the maintenance strategies of power and distribution transformers, particularly in regions where furan testing facilities are not readily available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the use of Li-ion batteries, Li-ion batteries will experience unavoidable aging, which can cause battery safety issues, performance degradation, and inaccurate SOC estimation, so it is necessary to predict the state of health (SOH) of Li-ion batteries. Existing methods for Li-ion battery state of health assessment mainly focus on parameters such as constant voltage charging time, constant current charging time, and discharging time, with little consideration of the impact of changes in Li-ion battery temperature on the state of health of Li-ion batteries. In this paper, a new prediction method for Li-ion battery health state based on the surface difference temperature (DT), incremental capacity analysis (ICA), and differential voltage analysis (DVA) is proposed. Five health factors are extracted from each of the three curves as input features to the model, respectively, and the weights, thresholds, and number of hidden layers of the Elman neural network are optimized using the Whale of a Whale Algorithm (WOA), which results in an average decrease of 43%, 49%, and 46% in MAE, RMSE, and MAPE compared to the Elman neural network. For the problem where the three predictions depend on different sources, the features of the three curves are fused using the weighted average method and predicted using the WOA–Elman neural network, whose MAE, RMSE, and MAPE are 0.00054, 0.0007897, and 0.06547% on average. The results show that the proposed method has an overall error of less than 2% in SOH prediction, improves the accuracy and robustness of the overall SOH estimation, and reduces the computational burden to some extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy sources are being expanded globally in response to global warming. Solar power generation is closely related to solar radiation and typically experiences significant fluctuations in solar radiation hours during periods of high solar radiation, leading to substantial inaccuracies in power generation predictions. In this paper, we suggest a solar power generation prediction method aimed at minimizing prediction errors during solar time. The proposed method comprises two stages. The first stage is the construction of the Solar Base Model by extracting characteristics from input variables. In the second stage, the prediction error period is detected using the Solar Change Point, which measures the difference between the predicted output from the Solar Base Model and the actual power generation. Subsequently, the probability of a weather forecast state change within the error occurrence period is calculated, and this information is used to update the power generation forecast value. The performance evaluation was restricted to July and August. The average improvement rate in predicted power generation was 24.5%. Using the proposed model, updates to weather forecast status information were implemented, leading to enhanced accuracy in predicting solar power generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a Litz winding numerical-simulation model considering the transposition effect, and uses the transient-plane-source method to verify the numerical-simulation method. In addition, numerical methods were adopted to further investigate the impact of filling rate and epoxy-resin type, and their combined effects, on thermal conductivity. To facilitate engineering design, the discrete data points were fitted using the least square method to obtain a straightforward and application-friendly polynomial empirical formula. On this basis, the GA-BP neural network was used to analyze the data in order to seek out more accurate prediction results for the entire data set. As a result, compared with the least square method, the error between the prediction result and the target value in the x direction was reduced by 87.04%, and the error in the z direction was reduced by 84.97%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study introduces a data augmentation technique based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) to improve the accuracy of day-ahead wind power predictions. To address the peculiarities of abrupt weather data, we propose a novel method for detecting mutation rates (MR) and local mutation rates (LMR). By analyzing historical data, we curated datasets that met specific mutation rate criteria. These transformed wind speed datasets were used as training instances, and using GAN-based methodologies, we generated a series of augmented training sets. The enriched dataset was then used to train the wind power prediction model, and the resulting prediction results were meticulously evaluated. Our empirical findings clearly demonstrate a significant improvement in the accuracy of day-ahead wind power prediction due to the proposed data augmentation approach. A comparative analysis with traditional methods showed an approximate 5% increase in monthly average prediction accuracy. This highlights the potential of leveraging mutated wind speed data and GAN-based techniques for data augmentation, leading to improved accuracy and reliability in wind power predictions. In conclusion, this paper presents a robust data augmentation method for wind power prediction, contributing to the potential enhancement of day-ahead prediction accuracy. Future research could explore additional mutation rate detection methods and strategies to further enhance GAN models, thereby amplifying the effectiveness of wind power prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]