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As the first waterproof component of the immersed tunnel, it is very important to ensure the remaining compression of the GINA gasket to resist external water intrusion. This paper proposed a method for determining warning thresholds for the remaining compression of the GINA gasket based on a material-to-mechanical analysis. In terms of material analysis, two factors that affect the GINA gasket are investigated: rubber hardness and cross-sectional shape, and they are adopted as the basis for subsequent mechanical analysis. In terms of mechanical analysis, uneven settlement during the operation period is considered to be the major cause of joint deformation, which is further divided into four modes: bending, shear, expansion, and torsion, with the computation model of the GINA gasket established to obtain the warning threshold. After that, a graded early warning method is adopted, and corresponding thresholds are given after an investigation of previous studies, which are validated by a three-dimensional finite element analysis. The deformation monitoring data between the E28 and E29 elements of the Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macao Bridge Immersed Tunnel are used to verify the proposed method. The results show that the GINA gasket of the Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macao Bridge Immersed Tunnel is currently in a safe state, and its deformation is much lower than the minimum warning level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]