Search

Based on the data of the Chinese A-share listed firms in China Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2014 to 2021, this article explores the relationship between common institutional investors and the quality of management earnings forecasts. The study used the multiple linear regression model and empirically found that common institutional investors positively impact the precision of earnings forecasts. This article also uses graph neural networks to predict the precision of earnings forecasts. Our findings have shown that common institutional investors form external supervision over restricting management to release a wide width of earnings forecasts, which helps to improve the risk warning function of earnings forecasts and promote the sustainable development of information disclosure from management in the Chinese capital market. One of the marginal contributions of this paper is that it enriches the literature related to the economic consequences of common institutional shareholding. Then, the neural network method used to predict the quality of management forecasts enhances the research method of institutional investors and the behavior of management earnings forecasts. Thirdly, this paper calls for strengthening information sharing and circulation among institutional investors to reduce information asymmetry between investors and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, the international situation is severe and complex, and the structural issues within the Chinese economy are prominent. Consequently, the financial risks faced by Chinese listed companies continue to escalate. Hence, it is of great practical significance to furnish effective early warnings for financial crises in listed companies. In this paper, we first employ web crawler technology and natural language processing technology to assess four text-linguistic features in the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) section of the annual financial reports of listed companies in China from 2011 to 2020. These features are text tone, forward-looking, readability and similarity. Subsequently, we combine these features with traditional financial indicators and explore thirteen mainstream machine learning models to comparatively analyze their effectiveness in predicting financial crises in listed companies. The empirical findings of this research reveal that MD&A text readability and similarity indicators contribute valuable incremental information to prediction models, whereas text tone and forward-looking indicators exhibit the opposite effect. The latter two indicators can be manipulated more effortlessly by management, as this study's empirical findings indicate no evidence of their contributions in incremental informational value. In fact, the forward-looking indicator even introduces additional noise to the prediction. Finally, by comparing the early warning effects of thirteen machine learning models, it is found that RF, Bagging, CatBoost, GBDT, XGBoost and LightGBM models maintain stable and accurate sample recognition ability. In general, this paper constructs a more effective financial crisis early warning model by exploring the MD&A text-linguistic feature indicators, thereby offering a fresh research perspective for further investigations in this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately predicting carbon price is crucial for risk avoidance in the carbon financial market. In light of the complex characteristics of the regional carbon price in China, this paper proposes a model to forecast carbon price based on the multi-factor hybrid kernel-based extreme learning machine (HKELM) by combining secondary decomposition and ensemble learning. Variational mode decomposition (VMD) is first used to decompose the carbon price into several modes, and range entropy is then used to reconstruct these modes. The multi-factor HKELM optimized by the sparrow search algorithm is used to forecast the reconstructed subsequences, where the main external factors innovatively selected by maximum information coefficient and historical time-series data on carbon prices are both considered as input variables to the forecasting model. Following this, the improved complete ensemble-based empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise and range entropy are respectively used to decompose and reconstruct the residual term generated by VMD. Finally, the nonlinear ensemble learning method is introduced to determine the predictions of residual term and final carbon price. In the empirical analysis of Guangzhou market, the root mean square error(RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model are 0.1716, 0.1218 and 0.0026, respectively. The proposed model outperforms other comparative models in predicting accuracy. The work here extends the research on forecasting theory and methods of predicting the carbon price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have investigated the determinants of urban tourism development from the various attributes of neighborhood quality. However, traditional methods to assess neighborhood quality are often subjective, costly, and only on a small scale. To fill this research gap, this study applies the recent development in big data of street view images, deep learning algorithms, and image processing technology to assess quantitatively four attributes of neighborhood quality, namely street facilities, architectural landscape, green or ecological environment, and scene visibility. The paper collects more than 7.8 million Baidu SVPs of 232 prefecture-level cities in China and applies deep learning techniques to recognize these images. This paper then tries to examine the influence of neighborhood quality on regional tourism development. Empirical results show that both levels of street facilities and greenery environment promote tourism. However, the construction intensity of the landscape has an inhibitory influence on the development of tourism. The threshold test shows that the intensity of the influence varies with the city's overall economic level. These conclusions are of great significance for the development of China's urban construction and tourism economy, and also provide a useful reference for policymakers. The methodological procedure is reduplicative and can be applied to other challenging cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to explore several ways to construct a scientific and comprehensive early warning system (EWS) for local government debt risk in China. In order to achieve this goal, this paper studies the local government debt risk from multiple perspectives, i.e., individual risk, contagion risk, static risk and dynamic risk. Firstly, taking China's 30 provinces over the period of 2010~ 2018 as a sample, this paper establishes early warning indicators for individual risk of local government debt, and uses the network model to establish early warning indicators for contagion risk of local government debt. Then, this paper applies the criteria importance though intercrieria correlation (CRITIC) method and coefficient of variation method to obtain the proxy variable Ⅰ, which combines the above two risks. Secondly, based on the proxy variable Ⅰ, both the Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model and coefficient of variation method are used to obtain the proxy variable Ⅱ, which comprehensively considers the individual risk, contagion risk, static risk and dynamic risk of local government debt. Finally, machine learning algorithms are adopted to generalize the EWS designed in this paper. The results show that: (1) From different perspectives of local government debt risk, the list of provinces that require early warning is different; (2) The support vector machines can well generalize our EWS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is one of the most common types of cancers in South China and Southeast Asia. Clinical data has shown that early detection is essential for improving treatment effectiveness and survival rate. Unfortunately, because the early symptoms of NPC are rather minor and similar to that of diseases such as Chronic Rhinosinusitis (CRS), early detection is a challenge. This paper proposes using machine learning methods to detect NPC using routine medical test data, namely Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), k-Nearest-Neighbor (KNN) and Logistic Regression (LR). We collected a dataset containing 523 newly diagnosed NPC patients before treatment, 501 newly diagnosed CRS patients before treatment as well as 600 healthy controls. The routine medical test data including age, gender, blood test features, liver function test features, and urine sediment test features. For comparison, we also used data from Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) antibody tests, which is a specialized test not included among routine medical tests. In our first test, all four methods were tested on classifying NPC vs CRS vs controls; RF gives the best overall performance. Using only routine medical test data, it gives an accuracy of 83.1%, outperforming LR by 12%. In our second test, using only routine medical test data, when classifying NPC vs non-NPC (i.e. CRS or controls), RF achieves an accuracy of 88.2%. In our third test, when classifying NPC vs. controls, RF using only routine test data achieves an accuracy significantly better than RF using only EBV antibody data. Finally, in our last test, RF trained with NPC vs controls, using routine test data only, continued to perform well on an entirely separate dataset. This is a promising result because preliminary NPC detection using routine medical data is easy and inexpensive to implement. We believe this approach will play an important role in the detection and treatment of NPC in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sports facilities have been acknowledged as one of the crucial environmental factors for children's physical education, physical fitness, and participation in physical activity. Finding a solution for the effective and objective evaluation of the condition of sports facilities in schools (SSFs) with the responding quantitative magnitude is an uncertain task. This paper describes the utilization of an unsupervised machine learning method to objectively evaluate the condition of sports facilities in primary school (PSSFC). The statistical data of 845 samples with nine PSSFC indicators (indoor and outdoor included) were collected from the Sixth National Sports Facility Census in mainland China (NSFC), an official nationwide quinquennial census. The Fuzzy C-means (FCM) algorithm was applied to cluster the samples in accordance with the similarity of PSSFC. The clustered data were visualized by using t-stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE). The statistics results showed that the application of t-SNE and FCM led to the acceptable performance of clustering SSFs data into three types with differences in PSSFC. The effects of school category, location factors, and the interaction on PSSFC were analyzed by two-way analysis of covariance, which indicated that regional PSSFC has geographical and typological characteristics: schools in the suburbs are superior to those in the inner city, schools with more grades of students are configured with better variety and larger size of sports facilities. In conclusion, we have developed a combinatorial machine learning clustering approach that is suitable for objective evaluation on PSSFC and indicates its characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]