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This paper examines the experiences of refugees in a developing country during its first COVID-19 lockdown by utilizing a two-stage qualitative data analysis of 39 interviews with refugees and asylum-seekers. We find that their experiences during the lockdown are shaped by identity, trauma and help from external parties–such as community leaders and local non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Experiences during the pandemic in turn moderate the relationship between policy changes and trust in domestic authority figures, which consequently affects attitudes towards and compliance with public health measures put in place to contain the pandemic. We then explore the role of identity in refugees' pandemic experiences by comparing the differences between two refugee groups (Syrians and Rohingyas), validating them by utilizing comparative thematic analysis. Finally, the paper presents policy implications for crisis response in developing countries by suggesting improvements that can be made on the ground regarding the delivery of aid and assistance to vulnerable groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Happiness levels often fluctuate from one day to the next, and an exogenous shock such as a pandemic can likely disrupt pre-existing happiness dynamics. This paper fits a Marko Switching Dynamic Regression Model (MSDR) to better understand the dynamic patterns of happiness levels before and during a pandemic. The estimated parameters from the MSDR model include each state's mean and duration, volatility and transition probabilities. Once these parameters have been estimated, we use the one-step method to predict the unobserved states' evolution over time. This gives us unique insights into the evolution of happiness. Furthermore, as maximising happiness is a policy priority, we determine the factors that can contribute to the probability of increasing happiness levels. We empirically test these models using New Zealand's daily happiness data for May 2019 –November 2020. The results show that New Zealand seems to have two regimes, an unhappy and happy regime. In 2019 the happy regime dominated; thus, the probability of being unhappy in the next time period (day) occurred less frequently, whereas the opposite is true for 2020. The higher frequency of time periods with a probability of being unhappy in 2020 mostly correspond to pandemic events. Lastly, we find the factors positively and significantly related to the probability of being happy after lockdown to be jobseeker support payments and international travel. On the other hand, lack of mobility is significantly and negatively related to the probability of being happy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Latin American governments swiftly implemented income assistance programs to sustain families' livelihoods during COVID-19 stay-at-home orders. This paper analyzes the potential coverage and generosity of these measures and assesses the suitability of current safety nets to deal with unexpected negative income shocks in 10 Latin American countries. The expansion of pre-existing programs (most notably conditional cash transfers and non-contributory pensions) during the COVID-19 crisis was generally insufficient to compensate for the inability to work among the poorest segments of the population. When COVID-19 ad hoc programs are analyzed, the coverage and replacement rates of regular labor income among households in the first quintile of the country's labor income distribution increase substantially. Yet, these programs present substantial coverage challenges among families composed of fundamentally informal workers who are non-poor, but are at a high risk of poverty. These results highlight the limitations of the fragmented nature of social protection systems in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing COVID-19 has led to an increase in negative emotions and health awareness among consumers. This paper discusses the emotion bias of Chinese consumers during the three periods: the pre-COVID-19 period, the COVID-19 lockdown period, and the COVID-19 normalization period. This study takes health products as the research object and crawls relevant reviews on the JD platform to classify products. The data were classified into emotion, the intensity of emotion was calculated, and the logistic regression model and variance analysis were used to analyze the difference in emotion expression. The study reveals that consumers are willing to express fear and sadness during the COVID-19 lockdown era and are willing to express like emotions before the pandemic compared to the three periods. There are also differences in the emotional intensity of different product reviews. The intensity of emotional expression is more vigorous for consumers who purchase nutritional products, while for those who purchase healthcare equipment, the intensity of emotional expression is lower. This study offers the emotion bias of consumers in response to COVID-19 to provide a theoretical basis and reference solution for implementing marketing strategies for health product companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Immediately after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in Early 2020, most affected countries reacted with strict lockdown to limit the spread of the virus. Since that time, the measures were adapted on a short time basis according to certain numbers (i.e., number of infected, utilization of intensive care units). Implementing a long-term optimal strategy was not possible since a forecast when R&D will succeed in developing an effective vaccination was not available. Our paper closes this gap by assuming a stochastic arrival rate of the COVID-19 vaccine with the corresponding change in the optimal policy regarding the accompanying optimal lockdown measures. The first finding is that the lockdown should be intensified after the vaccine approval if the pace of the vaccination campaign is rather slow. Secondly, the anticipation of the vaccination arrival also leads to a stricter lockdown in the period without vaccination. For both findings, an intuitive explanation is offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted almost all the sectors including agriculture in the country. The present paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 induced lockdown on both wholesale and retail prices of major pulses in India. The daily wholesale and retail price data on five major pulses namely Lentil, Moong, Arhar, Urad and Gram are collected for five major markets in India namely Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai and Hyderabad during the period January, 2019 to September, 2020 from Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution, Government of India. The Government of India declared nationwide lockdown since March, 24, to May, 31, 2020 in different phases in order to restrict the spread of the infection due to COVID-19. To see the impact of lockdown on price and price volatility, time series model namely Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with error following Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model incorporating exogenous variable as lockdown dummy in both mean as well variance equations. It is observed that in almost all the markets, lockdown has significant impact on price of the pulses whereas in few cases, it has significant impact on price volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have a potentially serious effect on mental health and increase the risk of anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorders in people. In this study, we aimed to determine the prevalence of psychological illness and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Libyan population's mental health. Method: A cross-sectional survey, conducted in both online and paper modes and consisting of five sections, was completed in more than 30 cities and towns across Libya. The first section consisted of questions on basic demographic characteristics. The second section contained a survey related to the lockdown status, activities, related stress levels, and quarantine. The third section comprised the self-administered 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). The fourth section contained the 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7), and the fifth section contained the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R). Result: Of the 31,557 respondents, 4,280 (13.6%) reported severe depressive symptoms, with a mean [standard deviation (SD)] PHQ-9 score of 8.32 (5.44); 1,767 (5.6%) reported severe anxiety symptoms, with a mean (SD) GAD-7 score of 6 (4.6); and 6,245 (19.8%) of the respondents reported post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), with a mean (SD) score of 15.3 (18.85). In multivariate analysis, young age, being female, unmarried, educated, or victims of domestic violence or abuse, work suspension during the pandemic, and having increased workload, financial issues, suicidal thoughts, or a family member with or hospitalized due to COVID-19 were significantly associated with a high likelihood of depressive and anxiety symptoms, as well as PTSD. Internal displacement due to civil war was also associated with PTSD. Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first study to analyze the psychological impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and civil war in Libya. Further study on the development of strategies and interventions aimed at reducing the mental disease burden on the Libyan population is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic spread rapidly worldwide. On September 15, 2021, a total of 546,251 confirmed cases were recorded in Saudi Arabia alone. Saudi Arabia imposed various levels of lockdown and forced the community to implement social distancing. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model to study the impact of these measures on COVID-19 spread. The model is analyzed qualitatively, producing two equilibrium points. The existence and stability of the COVID-19 free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium depend on the control reproduction number, Rc. These results are in good agreement with the numerical experiments. Moreover, the model is fitted with actual data from the COVID-19 dashboard of the Saudi Ministry of Health. We divide the timeline from March 12, 2020, to September 23, 2020, into seven phases according to the varied applications of lockdown and social distancing. We then explore several scenarios to investigate the optimal application of these measures and address whether it is possible to rely solely on social distancing without imposing a lockdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A lockdown implies a shift from the public to the private sphere, and from market to non-market production, thereby increasing the volume of unpaid work. Already before the pandemic, unpaid work was disproportionately borne by women. This paper studies the effect of working from home for pay (WFH), due to a lockdown, on the change in the division of housework and childcare within couple households. While previous studies on the effect of WFH on the reconciliation of work and family life and the division of labour within the household suffered from selection bias, we are able to identify this effect by drawing upon the shock of the first COVID-19 lockdown in Austria. The corresponding legal measures left little choice over WFH. In any case, WFH is exogenous, conditional on a small set of individual and household characteristics we control for. We employ data from a survey on the gendered aspects of the lockdown. The dataset includes detailed information on time use during the lockdown and on the quality and experience of WFH. Uniquely, this survey data also includes information on the division, and not only magnitude, of unpaid work within households. Austria is an interesting case in this respect as it is characterized by very conservative gender norms. The results reveal that the probability of men taking on a larger share of housework increases if men are WFH alone or together with their female partner. By contrast, the involvement of men in childcare increased only in the event that the female partner was not able to WFH. Overall, the burden of childcare, and particularly homeschooling, was disproportionately borne by women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use data collected from panel phone surveys to document the changes in food security of households in rural Liberia and Malawi during the market disruptions associated with the COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020. We use two distinct empirical approaches in our analysis: (a) an event study around the date of the lockdowns (March to July 2020), and (b) a difference-in-differences analysis comparing the lockdown period in 2020 to the same months in 2021, in order to attempt to control for seasonality. In both countries, market activity was severely disrupted and we observe declines in expenditures. However, we find no evidence of declines in food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: In Central Europe, the increase in mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic exceeded the number of deaths registered due to coronavirus disease. Excess deaths reported to causes other than COVID-19 may have been due to unrecognised coronavirus disease, the interruptions in care in the overwhelmed health care facilities, or socioeconomic effects of the pandemic and lockdowns. Death certificates provide exhaustive medical information, allowing us to assess the extent of unrecognised COVID-19 deaths. Materials and methods: Data from 187,300 death certificates with a COVID-19 mention from Austria, Bavaria (Germany), Czechia, Lithuania and Poland, 2020–2021, was used. The two step analysis uses Cause of Death Association Indicators (CDAIs) and Contributing CDAIs to identify and measure the statistical strength of associations between COVID-19 and all other medical mentions. Results: 15,700 deaths were reported with COVID-19 only as a contributing condition (comorbidity). In three cases out of four, a typical, statistically significant coronavirus complication or pre-existing condition was registered as the underlying causes of death. In Austria, Bavaria, Czechia and Lithuania the scale of COVID-19 mortality would have been up to 18–27% higher had COVID-19 been coded as the underlying cause of death. Unrecognised coronavirus deaths were equivalent to the entire surplus of excess mortality beyond registered COVID-19 deaths in Austria and the Czech Republic, and its large proportion (25–31%) in Lithuania and Bavaria. Conclusions: Death certificates with typical coronavirus complications or comorbidities as the underlying causes of death and contributing COVID-19 mentions were plausibly unrecognized coronavirus deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The COVID-19 outbreak disrupted regular health care, including the Emergency Department (ED), and resulted in insufficient ICU capacity. Lockdown measures were taken to prevent disease spread and hospital overcrowding. Little is known about the relationship of stringency of lockdown measures on ED utilization. Objective: This study aimed to compare the frequency and characteristics of ED visits during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 to 2019, and their relation to stringency of lockdown measures. Material and methods: A retrospective multicentre study among five Dutch hospitals was performed. The primary outcome was the absolute number of ED visits (year 2018 and 2019 compared to 2020). Secondary outcomes were age, sex, triage category, way of transportation, referral, disposition, and treating medical specialty. The relation between stringency of lockdown measures, measured with the Oxford Stringency Index (OSI) and number and characteristics of ED visits was analysed. Results: The total number of ED visits in the five hospitals in 2019 was 165,894, whereas the total number of visits in 2020 was 135,762, which was a decrease of 18.2% (range per hospital: 10.5%-30.7%). The reduction in ED visits was greater during periods of high stringency lockdown measures, as indicated by OSI. Conclusion: The number of ED visits in the Netherlands has significantly dropped during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a clear association between decreasing ED visits and increasing lockdown measures. The OSI could be used as an indicator in the management of ED visits during a future pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) of unprecedented scope and duration were implemented to limit community spread of COVID-19. There remains limited evidence about how these measures impacted the lived experience of affected communities. This study captured the early impacts and coping strategies implemented in King County, Washington, one of the first U.S. communities impacted by COVID-19. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional web-based survey of 793 English- and Spanish-speaking adult King County residents from March 18, 2020 –May 30, 2020, using voluntary response sampling. The survey included close- and open-ended questions on participant demographics, wellbeing, protective actions, and COVID-19-related concerns, including a freeform narrative response to describe the pandemic's individual-, family- and community-level impacts and associated coping strategies. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze close-ended questions, and qualitative content analysis methods were used to analyze free-form narrative responses. Results: The median age of participants was 45 years old, and 74% were female, 82% were White, and 6% were Hispanic/Latinx; 474 (60%) provided a qualitative narrative. Quantitative findings demonstrated that higher percentages of participants engaged in most types of COVID-19 protective behaviors after the stay-at-home order was implemented and schools and community spaces were closed, relative to before, and that participants tended to report greater concern about the pandemic's physical health or healthcare access impacts than the financial or social impacts. Qualitative data analysis described employment or financial impacts (56%) and vitality coping strategies (65%), intended to support health or positive functioning. Conclusions: This study documented early impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the NPIs implemented in response, as well as strategies employed to cope with those impacts, which can inform early-stage policy formation and intervention strategies to mitigate the negative impacts. Future research should explore the endurance and evolution of the early impacts and coping strategies throughout the multiyear pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Covid-19 pandemic and resultant disruptions to schooling presented significant challenges for many families. Well organised families have been shown to have a protective effect on adolescent wellbeing in periods of shock. At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, Asenze, a population-based cohort study, was conducting a third wave of data collection in peri-urban South Africa, examining risk and protective factors during adolescence. By March 2020, n = 272 adolescents and their caregivers (n = 241) in the cohort had been assessed when in-person data collection was halted by lockdown measures countrywide. During this cessation we undertook a brief telephonic qualitative sub-study to explore whether families enrolled in the cohort were able to cohabit cohesively and undertake distance learning during lockdown. A purposeful sample of 20 families (caregivers n = 20, adolescents n = 24) recently assessed in the Wave 3 of the main study, participated in semi-structured interviews. Quantitative data from Waves 1–3 of the main study was used to measure family function, adolescent cognitive function, and profile adolescent and caregivers. The quantitative and qualitative data were integrated to illustrate the dynamics of the participants' lives before and during lockdown. We found that families classified as well-organized before lockdown, were more likely to report co-operation during lockdown. Adolescents who were self-motivated, had access to smartphones or the internet, and were supported by both family and educators, were well-placed to continue their education without much disruption. However, few schools instituted distance learning. Of the adolescents who were not assisted- some studied on their own or with peers, but others did no schoolwork, hindered by a lack of digital connectivity, and poor service delivery. The experience of adolescence and caregivers in the Asenze Cohort during lockdown highlight the importance of family functioning for adolescent wellbeing in crisis, as well as the need for access to health, mental health, and social services, communication upgrades, and enhancements to the education system during peaceful times, to make a difference to young lives in times of crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optimizing the trade-off between economic growth and public health is a major goal of public administration, especially during public health events. Although containment measures are widely used to combat the Covid-19 outbreak, it is still debated how the measures affect the economy. Using a simplified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, this study investigates the dynamic impact of lockdown policy on social costs during the epidemic and the underlying mechanism, revealing that the lockdown policy has both a "shutdown effect" and an "anti-epidemic effect", and should be implemented and lifted in a timely manner. Based on a micro-level dataset of 57,547 private enterprises in China in 2020, this study provided empirical evidence for the presence of negative "shutdown effect" and positive "anti-epidemic effect" of lockdown on reopening, both of which are in part mediated by labor input, factor mobility, and market demand recovery. Furthermore, the shutdown effect is weaker in regions with sufficient testing and quarantine resources, government capacity and preference for targeted response, whereas the anti-epidemic effect is stronger in densely populated areas with relatively low public compliance. Additionally, digital measures can aid in the containment of epidemics. The findings not only contribute to a better understanding of the rationality and effectiveness of the lockdown policy, but also provides practical evidence and implications for the government to improve the synergistic efficiency of epidemic control tools and strengthen the resilience of local economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite undeniable hardship, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic also saw an outpour of community solidarity and mutual aid towards those in need. This study explored why people participated in mutual aid during the pandemic as well as the factors that contributed to continued involvement and/or its decline. We conducted remote interviews with 17 people in South-east England who had been involved in volunteering and local community mutual aid support groups during the first UK lockdown from March to May 2020. Using thematic analysis, we identified two themes: 1) The emergence of social groups and their psychosocial effects, and 2) Enduring connections and barriers to continued participation. Participants often reported an emergent shared identity, preferring the localised nature of these groups and the associated mutual nature of support. They also reported intentions to continue providing such support, should the need arise again, and any barriers to continued involvement in mutual aid were better explained by structural and systemic issues, rather than individual motivational factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Wuhan was the epicenter of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), outbreak in China. We aimed at surveying the general public in China to better understand their levels of psychological state and its influencing factors after the Wuhan shutdown on January 23. Methods: The cross-sectional survey was conducted online and 4,701 respondents participated in this survey. Of them, 3,803 respondents were considered for final analysis. Data on subjective indicators of daily life changes were collected, and individual scores on changes in anxiety, depression, and stress were tested by 8-item, 11-item, and 6-item questionnaires, respectively. Results: Multivariable regression analyses showed that living in the rural areas, living in the other regions except Hubei, and higher education were independent correlates of less negative emotions. Besides, the level of attention, self-assessed infection risk, impact on the daily life and mental health help-seeking tended to be positively associated with the scores of anxiety, depression, and stress. Conclusions: City of residence, education, marital status, monthly income, level of attention, self-assessed infection risk, impact on daily life and mental health help-seeking were important correlates of anxiety, depression, and stress scores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As SARS-CoV-2 emerged as a global threat in early 2020, China enacted rapid and strict lockdown orders to prevent introductions and suppress transmission. In contrast, the United States federal government did not enact national orders. State and local authorities were left to make rapid decisions based on limited case data and scientific information to protect their communities. To support local decision making in early 2020, we developed a model for estimating the probability of an undetected COVID-19 epidemic (epidemic risk) in each US county based on the epidemiological characteristics of the virus and the number of confirmed and suspected cases. As a retrospective analysis we included county-specific reproduction numbers and found that counties with only a single reported case by March 16, 2020 had a mean epidemic risk of 71% (95% CI: 52–83%), implying COVID-19 was already spreading widely by the first detected case. By that date, 15% of US counties covering 63% of the population had reported at least one case and had epidemic risk greater than 50%. We find that a 10% increase in model estimated epidemic risk for March 16 yields a 0.53 (95% CI: 0.49–0.58) increase in the log odds that the county reported at least two additional cases in the following week. The original epidemic risk estimates made on March 16, 2020 that assumed all counties had an effective reproduction number of 3.0 are highly correlated with our retrospective estimates (r = 0.99; p<0.001) but are less predictive of subsequent case increases (AIC difference of 93.3 and 100% weight in favor of the retrospective risk estimates). Given the low rates of testing and reporting early in the pandemic, taking action upon the detection of just one or a few cases may be prudent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To examine the associations of sociodemographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors with depression, anxiety, and self-reported health status during the COVID-19 lockdown in Ecuador. We also assessed the differences in these associations between women and men. Design, setting, and participants: We conducted a cross-sectional survey between July to October 2020 to adults who were living in Ecuador between March to October 2020. All data were collected through an online survey. We ran descriptive and bivariate analyses and fitted sex-stratified multivariate logistic regression models to assess the association between explanatory variables and self-reported health status. Results: 1801 women and 1123 men completed the survey. Their median (IQR) age was 34 (27–44) years, most participants had a university education (84%) and a full-time public or private job (63%); 16% of participants had poor health self-perception. Poor self-perceived health was associated with being female, having solely public healthcare system access, perceiving housing conditions as inadequate, living with cohabitants requiring care, perceiving difficulties in coping with work or managing household chores, COVID-19 infection, chronic disease, and depression symptoms were significantly and independently associated with poor self-reported health status. For women, self-employment, having solely public healthcare system access, perceiving housing conditions as inadequate, having cohabitants requiring care, having very high difficulties to cope with household chores, having COVID-19, and having a chronic disease increased the likelihood of having poor self-reported health status. For men, poor or inadequate housing, presence of any chronic disease, and depression increased the likelihood of having poor self-reported health status. Conclusion: Being female, having solely public healthcare system access, perceiving housing conditions as inadequate, living with cohabitants requiring care, perceiving difficulties in coping with work or managing household chores, COVID-19 infection, chronic disease, and depression symptoms were significantly and independently associated with poor self-reported health status in Ecuadorian population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Social media has been a common platform to disseminate health information by government officials during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, little is known about the determinants of public engagement in officials' posts on social media, especially during lockdown. Objectives: This study aims to investigate how the public engages in officials' posts about COVID-19 on social media and to identify factors influencing the levels of engagement. Methods: A total of 511 adults aged 18 or over completed an online questionnaire during lockdown in Iraq. Levels of engagement in officials' posts on social media, trust in officials and compliance of government instructions were assessed. Results: Fear of COVID-19 and trust in officials were positively associated with compliance of government instructions. Trust in officials was also associated with active engagement in officials' posts on social media, including commenting, posting and sharing of the posts. Conclusions: Trust in government has been established during the COVID-19 pandemic. Public engagement in officials' posts is crucial to reinforce health policies and disseminate health information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the isolation of the population in Israel, including the elderly. The present study aimed to compare the consumption of medical services among adults over the age of 65 in Israel at the time of the first COVID-19 lockdown relative to the corresponding period the year before. Methods: We conducted a retrospective longitudinal observational quantitative research based on the Natali Healthcare Solutions Israel database of subscribers. Company subscribers over the age of 65 (N = 103,955) were included in the sample (64.5% women) in two time periods, before the COVID-19 outbreak-P1, in 2019, and during the first COVID-19 lockdown- P2 in 2020. Logistic regression was applied to examine service consumption for study variables. Results: The average number of referrals to services was lower during the COVID-19 lockdown period (M = 0.3658, SD = 0.781) compared to the corresponding period in the previous year (M = 0.5402, SD = 0.935). The average number of ambulance orders, doctor home visits and service refusals were higher when compared to the same period in the previous year. During both time periods, women (P1- M = 0.5631, SD = 0.951; P2- M = 0.3846, SD = 0.800) required significantly more (p <.000) services than men (P1- M = 0.5114, SD = 0.910; P2- M = 0.3417, SD = 0.753). Older, widowed people, living in non-Jewish/mixed localities, or in average or below average socioeconomic status localities required relatively more services to those with opposite socio-demographic traits (p <.000). Summary and conclusions: In a large sample of elderly in Israel, findings indicate a decrease in referrals to medical care during the first COVID-19 lockdown period, yet an increase in ambulance orders, doctor visits and service refusals. Socio-demographic characteristics showed a similar effect in both time periods. The period of the first COVID-19 lockdown was characterized by a higher incidence of medical service refusals as compared to the equivalent period in the previous year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South African government imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the world as part of measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 in the country, including a ban on the sale of tobacco products. This study explored news media coverage of arguments and activities in relation to the South African lockdown tobacco sales ban. We collected media articles published between 26 March to 17 August 2020, which corresponded to the period of the sales ban. Data were sourced via google search and snowball identification of relevant articles. Thematic analysis of data was conducted with the aid of NVivo. We analysed a total of 305 articles relevant to the South African tobacco sales ban during the lockdown. Six major themes were identified in the data: challenges associated with implementing the ban, litigation, and threats of litigation to remove the ban, governance process and politicization of the ban, pro and anti-tobacco sales ban activities and arguments and reactions to the announcement lifting the ban. The initial reason for placing the ban was due to the non-classification of tobacco products as an essential item. Early findings of a link between tobacco smoking and COVID-19 disease severity led to an extension of the ban to protect South Africa's fragile health system. Pro-sales ban arguments included the importance of protecting the health system from collapse due to rising COVID-19 hospitalization, benefit of cessation, and the need for non-smokers to be protected from exposure to secondhand smoke. Anti-sales ban arguments included the adverse effect of nicotine withdrawal symptoms on smokers, loss of jobs and the expansion of the illicit cigarette markets. Litigation against the ban's legality was a strategy used by the tobacco industry to mobilize the public against the ban while promoting their business through the distribution of branded masks and door-to-door delivery which goes against current tobacco regulations. The media could serve as a veritable tool to promote public health if engaged in productive ways to communicate and promote public health regulations to the general population. Engagement with the media should be enhanced as part of health promotion strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) hit Europe in January 2020. By March, Europe was the active centre of the pandemic. As a result, widespread "lockdown" measures were enforced across the various European countries, even if to a different extent. Such actions caused a dramatic reduction, especially in road traffic. This event can be considered the most significant experiment ever conducted in Europe to assess the impact of a massive switch-off of atmospheric pollutant sources. In this study, we focus on in situ concentration data of the main atmospheric pollutants measured in twelve European cities, characterized by different climatology, emission sources, and strengths. We propose a methodology for the fair comparison of the impact of lockdown measures considering the non-stationarity of meteorological conditions and emissions, which are progressively declining due to the adoption of stricter air quality measures. The analysis of these unmatched circumstances allowed us to estimate the impact of a nearly zero-emission urban transport scenario on air quality in 12 European cities. The clearest result, common to all the cities, is that a dramatic traffic reduction effectively reduces NO2 concentrations. In contrast, each city's PM and ozone concentrations can respond differently to the same type of emission reduction measure. From the policy point of view, these findings suggest that measures targeting urban traffic alone may not be the only effective option for improving air quality in cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By means of the event study approach, we analyse the effect of COVID-19 on listed European renewable and traditional electricity companies, inside and outside the European Union, for the pandemic announcement and lockdowns. We find that the pandemic negatively affected both subsectors of electricity production, but the negative effect was more intense for renewable electricity companies, since they represent a riskier investment. Moreover, this negative effect was larger for European electricity companies than for companies from countries that do not belong to the European Union. Our results show the riskier profile of the clean energy industry together with the importance of a stable and supportive regulatory framework to develop and consolidate renewable energy. Our findings have important implications for policymakers. In addition to the intrinsic risks associated with renewable energy, this type of investment poses policy and regulatory risks, which they should take into account when evaluating future energy policies. Policymakers must be aware of the importance of these specific risks, and seek to respond to investors' expectations about long-term, stable regulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the influence of infection cases of COVID-19 and two non-compulsory lockdowns on human mobility within the Tokyo metropolitan area. Using the data of hourly staying population in each 500m×500m cell and their city-level residency, we show that long-distance trips or trips to crowded places decrease significantly when infection cases increase. The same result holds for the two lockdowns, although the second lockdown was less effective. Hence, Japanese non-compulsory lockdowns influence mobility in a similar way to the increase in infection cases. This means that they are accepted as alarm triggers for people who are at risk of contracting COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 has a substantial and unexpected impact on individuals' daily life around the world. Unprecedented public health restrictions such as lockdowns have the potential to affect multiple dimensions of individuals' well-being, while the severity of such restrictions varies across countries. However, a holistic perspective comparing differences in and drivers of the different dimensions of well-being across countries differentially affected by COVID-19 is missing to date. We address this gap in the literature by examining the mental, social, functional, and financial well-being of 2,100 individuals across Australia, France, Germany, and South Africa by means of a survey administered during May of 2021. Supporting our holistic approach, we find that the different dimensions of well-being are correlated, with survey respondents from France reporting the lowest and those from Australia reporting the highest overall level of well-being. Respondents' subjective and objective evaluations of their living conditions during lockdowns as well as positive health and financial behaviors are positively associated with their well-being during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Preventive and modeling approaches to address the COVID-19 pandemic have been primarily based on the age or occupation, and often disregard the importance of heterogeneity in population contact structure and individual connectivity. To address this gap, we developed models based on Erdős-Rényi and a power law degree distribution that first incorporate the role of heterogeneity and connectivity and then can be expanded to make assumptions about demographic characteristics. Results demonstrate that variations in the number of connections of individuals within a population modify the impact of public health interventions such as lockdown or vaccination approaches. We conclude that the most effective strategy will vary depending on the underlying contact structure of individuals within a population and on timing of the interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), national governments implemented measures to limit contact between citizens. This study evaluated changes in physical activity and sitting in response to the first COVID-19 lockdown in England and factors associated with these changes. A cross-sectional online survey-based study collected data from 818 adults between 29 April and 13 May 2020. Participants self-reported demographic information, physical activity and sitting for a 'typical' week before and during lockdown. Participants were grouped into low, moderate and high physical activity, and low and high (≥8 hours/day) sitting. Paired samples t-tests compared physical activity (MET-min/week) before and during lockdown. Pearson's Chi-squared evaluated the proportion of participants in the physical activity and sitting categories. Logistic regression explored associations of demographic and behavioural factors with physical activity and sitting during lockdown. Walking and total physical activity significantly increased during lockdown by 241 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 176, 304) MET-min/week and 302 (CI: 155, 457) MET-min/week, respectively (P < 0.001). There was a 4% decrease in participants engaging in low physical activity and a 4% increase in those engaging in high physical activity from before to during lockdown (P < 0.001). The proportion engaging in high sitting increased from 29% to 41% during lockdown (P < 0.001). Lower education level (odds ratio [OR] = 1.65, P = 0.045) and higher BMI (OR = 1.05, P = 0.020) were associated with increased odds of low physical activity during lockdown, whereas non-White ethnicity (OR = 0.24, P = 0.001) was associated with reduced odds. Younger age was associated with increased odds of high sitting (OR = 2.28, P = 0.008). These findings suggest that physical activity and sitting both increased during lockdown. Demographic and behavioural factors associated with low physical activity and high sitting have been identified that could inform intervention strategies during situations of home confinement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The covid-19 global pandemic has significantly impacted on the daily lives of people across the world. One consequence of this has been significant distortion to the speed at which time feels like it is passing during day-to-day life in comparison with prior to the pandemic. The current study sought to further understanding of the impact of the pandemic on temporal experience by exploring individual differences in the subjective length of the first 12 months of the pandemic in the UK. Using an online questionnaire, subjective judgments of the perceived length of the preceding 12 months were taken. In addition, measures of affect, task load and satisfaction with current levels of social interaction, physical activity, conformity with regulations, perceived covid risk and shielding status were taken. The results showed that only 9% of participants reported that the preceding 12 months felt like 12 months. The majority of participants (57%) reported that it felt like the pandemic had lasted for longer than 12 months, and this feeling was stronger for those who indicated greater levels of depression and anxiety, reduced physical activity, reduced satisfaction with social interaction and being advised to shield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout 2020, national and subnational governments worldwide implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the spread of COVID-19. These included community quarantines, also known as lockdowns, of varying length, scope, and stringency that restricted mobility. To assess the effect of community quarantines on urban mobility in the Philippines, we analyze a new source of data: cellphone-based origin-destination flows made available by a major telecommunication company. First, we demonstrate that mobility dropped to 26% of the pre-lockdown level in the first month of lockdown and recovered and stabilized at 70% in August and September of 2020. Then we quantify the heterogeneous effects of lockdowns by city's employment composition. A city with 10 percentage points more employment share in work-from-home friendly sectors is found to have experienced an additional 2.8% decrease in mobility under the most stringent lockdown policy. Similarly, an increase of 10 percentage points in employment share in large and medium-sized firms was associated with a1.9% decrease in mobility on top of the benchmark reduction. We compare our findings with cross-country evidence on lockdowns and mobility, discuss the economic implications for containment policies in the Philippines, and suggest additional research that can be based on this novel dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As countries struggled with SARS-COV2 outbreaks at the beginning of 2021, many citizens found themselves in yet another period of increasing travel restrictions, if not a strict lockdown. At the same time there was concern that further restrictions would prove to be less effective due to a range of reasons including increasing pandemic fatigue or the lack of appropriate supports. In this study we investigate whether restrictions remained effective as a way to limit non-essential travel in order to curb virus transmission. We do this by analysing adherence during periods of increasing and decreasing restrictions in 125 countries during three different 4-month phases, early (March—June 2020), middle (July—October 2020), and late (November 2020—February 2021) over the course of the first year of the pandemic, and prior to significant population-wide vaccination. We use the strength of the relationship between restriction levels and the level of personal mobility associated with non-essential travel in order to determine the degree of adherence to the restrictions imposed. We show that there is evidence of a significant decrease in adherence to restrictions during the middle and late phases of the pandemic, compared with the early phase. Our analysis further suggests that this decrease in adherence is due to changes in mobility rather than changes in restrictions. We conclude, therefore, that restrictions have become less effective at curbing non-essential travel, which may alter the cost-benefit analysis of restrictions and lockdowns, thus highlighting the need for governments to reconsider large-scale restrictions as a containment strategy in the future, in favour of more focused or flexible mitigation approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has magnified the multiple vulnerabilities of people living in urban informal settlements globally. To bring community voices from such settlements to the center of COVID-19 response strategies, we undertook a study in the urban informal settlements of Dharavi, Mumbai, from September 2020-April 2021. In this study, we have examined the awareness, attitudes, reported practices, and some broader experiences of the community in Dharavi with respect to COVID-19. We have used a mixed-methods approach, that included a cross-sectional survey of 468 people, and in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with 49 people living in this area. Data was collected via a mix of phone and face-to-face interviews. We have presented here the descriptive statistics from the survey and the key themes that emerged from our qualitative data. People reported high levels of knowledge about COVID-19, with television (90%), family and friends (56%), and social media (47%) being the main sources of information. The knowledge people had, however, was not free of misconceptions and fear; people were scared of being forcefully quarantined and dying alone during the early days of COVID-19. These fears had negative repercussions in the form of patient-related stigma and hesitancy in seeking healthcare. A year into the pandemic, however, people reported a shift in attitudes from 'extreme fear to low fear' (67% reported perceiving low/no COVID risk in October 2020), contributing to a general laxity in following COVID-appropriate behaviors. Currently, the community is immensely concerned about the revival of livelihoods, that have been adversely impacted due to the lockdown in 2020 as well as the continued 'othering' of Dharavi for being a COVID hotspot. These findings suggest that urban informal settlements like Dharavi need community-level messaging that counters misinformation and denial of the outbreak; local reinforcement of COVID-appropriate behaviours; and long-term social protection measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Covid-19 global pandemic that began in March 2020 was not fully mitigated through governmental Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) and continued to infect people and take lives through 2021. Since many countries were affected by the second, third, and fourth waves of Covid-19, governments extended and strengthened NPIs, but these actions led to citizen protests and fatigue. In this study, we investigate the effect of a lockdown policy on Covid-19 third wave implemented by the province of Ontario, Canada, on April 3rd 2021, followed by a stay-at-home order on April 7th 2021 while free Covid-19 testing and vaccination were in progress. Herein, the effect of both NPIs and vaccination are considered simultaneously. We used the prevalence of Covid-19 cases, tests, and administered vaccines data reported publicly by the Government of Ontario on their website. Because mobility changes can reflect the behaviors and adherence of residents with a stay-at-home order, Covid-19 community mobility data for Ontario provided by Google was also considered. A statistical method called interrupted time series was used to analyze the data. The results indicated that, although vaccinations helped to control the Covid-19 infection rate during this time, the stay-at-home order caused a rate reduction by decreasing the trend of the Covid-19 prevalence by 13 (±0.8962) persons per million daily and the level by 33 (±7.6854) persons per million. Furthermore, the stay-at-home order resulted in approximately a 37% reduction in Covid-19 prevalence one week after the intervention's effective date. Therefore, Ontario's strict lockdown policy, including several NPIs, mitigated the Covid-19 surge during the third wave. The results show that even when vaccination is in progress, strict NPIs such as lockdown is required to control Covid-19 waves, and early re-openings should be avoided. These results may also be useful for other countries that have implemented delayed vaccination schedules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty has been shown to reduce the willingness to cooperate in various social dilemmas and negatively affect prosocial behavior. However, some studies showed that uncertainty does not always decrease prosocial behavior, depending on the type of uncertainty. More specifically, recent research has shown that prosocial behavior tends to increase under impact uncertainty—uncertainty about the consequences for others if they become infected. In addition, researchers have argued that intuition favors prosocial behavior while deliberation leads to selfish behavior. Our study explored how intuitive (time pressure) or deliberate mental processing, under outcome, or impact uncertainty affect prosocial behavior in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our sample consists of 496 participants, and we used a 4 (COVID-19 scenario: Control vs. Impact Uncertainty vs. Worst-Case vs. Indirect Transmission) by 2 (decision time: time delay vs. time pressure) between-subjects design. Results suggest that participants are more inclined to stay at home (prosocial intention) when forced to make their decisions intuitively rather than deliberately. Additionally, we found that uncertainty does not always decrease prosocial behavior. It seems that uncertainty does not affect the prosocial intention in a scenario with a real infectious disease. These findings suggest that the distinction between outcome and impact uncertainty may be due to the realism of experimental stimuli interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last century, the increase in traffic, human activities and industrial production have led to a diffuse presence of air pollution, which causes an increase of risk of several health conditions such as respiratory diseases. In Europe, air pollution is a serious concern that affects several areas, one of the worst ones being northern Italy, and in particular the Po Valley, an area characterized by low air quality due to a combination of high population density, industrial activity, geographical factors and weather conditions. Public health authorities and local administrations are aware of this problem, and periodically intervene with temporary traffic limitations and other regulations, often insufficient to solve the problem. In February 2020, this area was the first in Europe to be severely hit by the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing the COVID-19 disease, to which the Italian government reacted with the establishment of a drastic lockdown. This situation created the condition to study how significant is the impact of car traffic and industrial activity on the pollution in the area, as these factors were strongly reduced during the lockdown. Differently from some areas in the world, a drastic decrease in pollution measured in terms of particulate matter (PM) was not observed in the Po Valley during the lockdown, suggesting that several external factors can play a role in determining the severity of pollution. In this study, we report the case study of the city of Pavia, where data coming from 23 air quality sensors were analyzed to compare the levels measured during the lockdown with the ones coming from the same period in 2019. Our results show that, on a global scale, there was a statistically significant reduction in terms of PM levels taking into account meteorological variables that can influence pollution such as wind, temperature, humidity, rain and solar radiation. Differences can be noticed analyzing daily pollution trends too, as—compared to the study period in 2019—during the study period in 2020 pollution was higher in the morning and lower in the remaining hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The gender gap is a well-known problem in academia and, despite its gradual narrowing, recent estimations indicate that it will persist for decades. Short-term descriptive studies suggest that this gap may have actually worsened during the months of confinement following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In this work, we evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on female and male academics' research productivity using preprint drop-off data. We examine a total of 307,902 unique research articles deposited in 5 major preprint repositories during the period between January and May each year from 2017 to 2020. We find that the proportion of female authors in online repositories steadily increased over time; however, the trend reversed during the confinement and gender parity worsened in two respects. First, the proportion of male authors in preprints increased significantly during lockdown. Second, the proportion of male authors in COVID-19-related articles was significantly higher than that of women. Overall, our results imply that the gender gap in academia suffered an approximately 1-year setback during the strict lockdown months of 2020, and COVID-related research areas suffered an additional 1.5-year setback. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if Sweden had imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider eight different indicators, including a novel one that we construct by adjusting recorded daily COVID-19 deaths to account for weakly excess mortality. Correcting for data problems and re-optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects within one week. The much longer delay estimated by two previous studies focusing on the number of positives cases is mainly driven by the extremely low testing frequency that prevailed in Sweden in the first months of the epidemic. This result appears relevant for choosing the timing of future lockdowns and highlights the importance of looking at several indicators to derive robust conclusions. We also find that our novel indicator is effective in correcting errors in the COVID-19 deaths series and that the quantitative effects of the lockdown are stronger than previously estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions are associated with adverse psychological impacts but an assessment of positive wellbeing is required to understand the overall impacts of the pandemic. Methods: The NZ Lockdown Psychological Distress Survey is an on-line cross-sectional survey of 3487 New Zealanders undertaken during a strict lockdown for COVID-19. The lockdown extended from 25 March 2020 to 28 April 2020 and the survey was undertaken between 15 April 2020 and 27 April 2020. The survey measured excellent wellbeing categorised by a WHO-Five Well-being Index (WHO-5) score ≥22. The survey also contained demographic and pre-lockdown questions, subjective and objective lockdown experiences, and questions on alcohol use. The proportion of participants with excellent wellbeing is reported with multivariate analysis examining the relative importance of individual factors associated with excellent wellbeing. Results: Approximately 9% of the overall sample (303 participants) reported excellent wellbeing during the New Zealand lockdown. In the multivariable analysis, excellent wellbeing status was positively associated with increasing age (p<0.001), male gender (p = 0.044), Māori and Asian ethnicity (p = 0.008), and lower levels of education (certificate/diploma level qualification or less) (p<0.001). Excellent wellbeing was negatively associated with smoking (p = 0.001), poor physical (p<0.001) and mental health (p = 0.002), and previous trauma (p = 0.033). Conclusion: Nine percent of New Zealanders reported excellent wellbeing during severe COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Demographic and broader health factors predicted excellent wellbeing status. An understanding of these factors may help to enhance wellbeing during any future lockdowns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many factors play a role in outcomes of an emerging highly contagious disease such as COVID-19. Identification and better understanding of these factors are critical in planning and implementation of effective response strategies during such public health crises. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of factors related to social distancing, human mobility, enforcement strategies, hospital capacity, and testing capacity on COVID-19 outcomes within counties located in District of Columbia as well as the states of Maryland and Virginia. Longitudinal data have been used in the analysis to model county-level COVID-19 infection and mortality rates. These data include big location-based service data, which were collected from anonymized mobile devices and characterize various social distancing and human mobility measures within the study area during the pandemic. The results provide empirical evidence that lower rates of COVID-19 infection and mortality are linked with increased levels of social distancing and reduced levels of travel—particularly by public transit modes. Other preventive strategies and polices also prove to be influential in COVID-19 outcomes. Most notably, lower COVID-19 infection and mortality rates are linked with stricter enforcement policies and more severe penalties for violating stay-at-home orders. Further, policies that allow gradual relaxation of social distancing measures and travel restrictions as well as those requiring usage of a face mask are related to lower rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths. Additionally, increased access to ventilators and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds, which represent hospital capacity, are linked with lower COVID-19 mortality rates. On the other hand, gaps in testing capacity are related to higher rates of COVID-19 infection. The results also provide empirical evidence for reports suggesting that certain minority groups such as African Americans and Hispanics are disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate how subjective well-being varied over the course of the global COVID-19 pandemic, with a special attention to periods of lockdown. We use weekly data from YouGov's Great Britain Mood Tracker Poll, and daily reports from Google Trends, that cover the entire period from six months before until eighteen months after the global spread of COVID-19. Descriptive trends and time-series models suggest that negative mood associated with the imposition of lockdowns returned to baseline within 1–3 weeks of lockdown implementation, whereas pandemic intensity, measured by the rate of fatalities from COVID-19 infection, was persistently associated with depressed affect. The results support the hypothesis that country-specific pandemic severity was the major contributor to increases in negative affect observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and that lockdowns likely ameliorated rather than exacerbated this effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Distrust, and more broadly, public perception of government's handling of a crisis, has been a widely studied topic within health crisis research and suggests that these perceptions are significantly associated with the behavior of its citizens. Purpose: To understand which aspects of the public's perception of government handling of the COVID-19 pandemic predicted engagement of protective behaviors among older adults, who are the most vulnerable to COVID-19. Methods: Participants were recruited from an ongoing biopsychosocial study on aging amongst community-dwelling older adults. There were two rounds of data collection, during the national lockdown and post-lockdown. The average length of follow-up was 5.88 months. N = 421 completed the first round of data collection and N = 318 subsequently completed the second round of questionnaires. Results: During the lockdown, perceptions that pandemic-related measures in place were sufficient, effective, timely, provided a sense of safety, important information was easily accessible, and government handling of the pandemic could be trusted, were found to significantly predict engagement in protective behaviors. During post-lockdown, only perceptions that measures in place were sufficient, provided a sense of safety, and important information was easily accessible, remained significant predictors. The perception that COVID-19 measures were clear and easy to understand now became a significant predictor. Conclusions: Public perceptions of government handling of the pandemic predicted engagement in protective behaviors but were less important during post-lockdown. To effectively engage older adults in protective behavior, our findings suggest for pandemic-related information to be accessible, introducing timely safety measures, and having easy-to-understand instructions for nuanced measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease of humans caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Since the first case was identified in China in December 2019 the disease has spread worldwide, leading to an ongoing pandemic. In this article, we present an agent-based model of COVID-19 in Luxembourg, and use it to estimate the impact, on cases and deaths, of interventions including testing, contact tracing, lockdown, curfew and vaccination. Our model is based on collation, with agents performing activities and moving between locations accordingly. The model is highly heterogeneous, featuring spatial clustering, over 2000 behavioural types and a 10 minute time resolution. The model is validated against COVID-19 clinical monitoring data collected in Luxembourg in 2020. Our model predicts far fewer cases and deaths than the equivalent equation-based SEIR model. In particular, with R0 = 2.45, the SEIR model infects 87% of the resident population while our agent-based model infects only around 23% of the resident population. Our simulations suggest that testing and contract tracing reduce cases substantially, but are less effective at reducing deaths. Lockdowns are very effective although costly, while the impact of an 11pm-6am curfew is relatively small. When vaccinating against a future outbreak, our results suggest that herd immunity can be achieved at relatively low coverage, with substantial levels of protection achieved with only 30% of the population fully immune. When vaccinating in the midst of an outbreak, the challenge is more difficult. In this context, we investigate the impact of vaccine efficacy, capacity, hesitancy and strategy. We conclude that, short of a permanent lockdown, vaccination is by far the most effective way to suppress and ultimately control the spread of COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: While there has been considerable analysis of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 in the Global North, representative data on the distribution and depth of social and economic impacts in Africa has been more limited. Methods: We analyze household data collected prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and during the first wave of COVID in four African countries. We evaluate the short-term changes to household economic status and assess women's access to health care during the first wave of COVID-19 in nationally representative samples of women aged 15–49 in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and in sub-nationally representative samples of women aged 15–49 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo and Lagos, Nigeria. We examine prevalence and distribution of household income loss, food insecurity, and access to health care during the COVID-19 lockdowns across residence and pre-pandemic wealth categories. We then regress pre-pandemic individual and household sociodemographic characteristics on the three outcomes. Results: In three out of four samples, over 90% of women reported partial or complete loss of household income since the beginning of the coronavirus restrictions. Prevalence of food insecurity ranged from 17.0% (95% CI 13.6–20.9) to 39.8% (95% CI 36.0–43.7), and the majority of women in food insecure households reported increases in food insecurity during the COVID-19 restriction period. In contrast, we did not find significant barriers to accessing health care during COVID restrictions. Between 78·3% and 94·0% of women who needed health care were able successfully access it. When we examined pre-pandemic sociodemographic correlates of the outcomes, we found that the income shock of COVID-19 was substantial and distributed similarly across wealth groups, but food insecurity was concentrated among poorer households. Contrary to a-priori expectations, we find little evidence of women experiencing barriers to health care, but there is significant need for food support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strategies adopted globally to mitigate the threat of COVID–19 have primarily involved lockdown measures with substantial economic and social costs with varying degrees of success. Morbidity patterns of COVID–19 variants have a strong association with age, while restrictive lockdown measures have association with negative mental health outcomes in some age groups. Reduced economic prospects may also afflict some age cohorts more than others. Motivated by this, we propose a model to describe COVID–19 community spread incorporating the role of age-specific social interactions. Through a flexible parameterisation of an age-structured deterministic Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed (SEIR) model, we provide a means for characterising different forms of lockdown which may impact specific age groups differently. Social interactions are represented through age group to age group contact matrices, which can be trained using available data and are thus locally adapted. This framework is easy to interpret and suitable for describing counterfactual scenarios, which could assist policy makers with regard to minimising morbidity balanced with the costs of prospective suppression strategies. Our work originates from an Irish context and we use disease monitoring data from February 29th 2020 to January 31st 2021 gathered by Irish governmental agencies. We demonstrate how Irish lockdown scenarios can be constructed using the proposed model formulation and show results of retrospective fitting to incidence rates and forward planning with relevant "what if / instead of" lockdown counterfactuals. Uncertainty quantification for the predictive approaches is described. Our formulation is agnostic to a specific locale, in that lockdown strategies in other regions can be straightforwardly encoded using this model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-Pharmaceutical Public Health Interventions (NPHIs) have been used by different countries to control the spread of the COVID-19. Despite available evidence regarding the effectiveness of NPHSs, there is still no consensus about how policymakers can trust these results. Studies on the effectiveness of NPHSs are single studies conducted in specific communities. Therefore, they cannot individually prove if these interventions have been effective in reducing the spread of the infection and its adverse health outcomes. In this systematic review, we aimed to examine the effects of NPHIs on the COVID-19 case growth rate, death growth rate, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, and reproduction number in countries, where NPHIs have been implemented. We searched relevant electronic databases, including Medline (via PubMed), Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science, etc. from late December 2019 to February 1, 2021. The key terms were primarily drawn from Medical Subject Heading (MeSh and Emtree), literature review, and opinions of experts. Peer-reviewed quasi-experimental studies were included in the review. The PROSPERO registration number is CRD42020186855. Interventions were NPHIs categorized as lockdown, stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and other interventions (mask-wearing, contact tracing, and school closure). We used PRISMA 2020 guidance for abstracting the data and used Cochrane Effective Practice and Organization of Practice (EPOC) Risk of Bias Tool for quality appraisal of the studies. Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman random-effects model was performed. Main outcomes included COVID-19 case growth rate (percentage daily changes), COVID-19 mortality growth rate (percentage daily changes), COVID-19 ICU admission (percentage daily changes), and COVID-19 reproduction number changes. Our search strategies in major databases yielded 12,523 results, which decreased to 7,540 articles after eliminating duplicates. Finally, 35 articles qualified to be included in the systematic review among which 23 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Although studies were from both low-income and high-income countries, the majority of them were from the United States (13 studies) and China (five studies). Results of the meta-analysis showed that adoption of NPHIs has resulted in a 4.68% (95% CI, -6.94 to -2.78) decrease in daily case growth rates, 4.8% (95 CI, -8.34 to -1.40) decrease in daily death growth rates, 1.90 (95% CI, -2.23 to -1.58) decrease in the COVID-19 reproduction number, and 16.5% (95% CI, -19.68 to -13.32) decrease in COVID-19 daily ICU admission. A few studies showed that, early enforcement of lockdown, when the incidence rate is not high, contributed to a shorter duration of lockdown and a lower increase of the case growth rate in the post-lockdown era. The majority of NPHIs had positive effects on restraining the COVID-19 spread. With the problems that remain regarding universal access to vaccines and their effectiveness and considering the drastic impact of the nationwide lockdown and other harsh restrictions on the economy and people's life, such interventions should be mitigated by adopting other NPHIs such as mass mask-wearing, patient/suspected case isolation strategies, and contact tracing. Studies need to address the impact of NPHIs on the population's other health problems than COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In April 2020, the United Nations predicted that the COVID-19 pandemic will have a 'calamitous' impact on the lives of women. This was based on concerns about an upsurge in Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) arising from increased opportunities for relational conflict due to forced co-existence and therefore additional time spent with abusive partners. Aim: Research has shown an increase in IPV during times of crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic has generated unprecedented circumstances and stress, and opportunities to do research to understand whether the COVID-19 pandemic impacted on IPV experiences were limited. Thus, the present study aimed to understand women's experiences of being in and leaving an abusive relationship during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Individual, telephonic interviews were conducted with 16 women living in domestic violence shelters within three Provinces during South Africa's lockdown period. Results: Findings reveal that the public health measures implemented by the South African Government to curb the spread of the virus, may have placed vulnerable groups at increased risk of violence. Specifically, lockdown likely magnified the risk for escalation of abuse in families already experiencing IPV prior to COVID-19. The study highlights an IPV and COVID-19 relationship, showing that the gender insensitive pandemic control measures, such as stay at home orders and travel restrictions, likely placed women at risk of increased abuse. Given the recurrency of COVID-19 epidemic waves, attention must be given to gender disparities or many South African women may experience worse outcomes. Conclusion: This study reminds us that being ordered to stay at home is not always the safest option for women and thus, in a country with one of the highest levels of GBV, it becomes imperative to ensure that IPV safeguards are integrated into COVID-19 measures. It also becomes evident that COVID-19 requires enhanced ways of responding by paying attention to gender disparities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Socioeconomic crisis and humanitarian disasters can cause increased stress for women who experience inter-partner violence (IPV). This study analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on this important issue, their related health and social services and working conditions from the perspectives of professionals in different sectors. Forty-three semi-structured interviews were carried out with 47 professionals (44 women and 3 men) from 40 different entities (September 2020—April 2021). This content analysis suggests that the pandemic and its associated prevention measures have had a negative impact on women exposed to IPV and their children, which affected their social wellbeing. Professionals described burnout, difficult and slow administrative processes, and problems with coordination and access to information. These negative impacts were mitigated, in part, by the work of professionals, but this suggests that a series of key strategies are needed to improve the response capacity of the service sector to IPV in situations of crisis. These improvements are related to the availability of human and material resources; an efficient coordination network between the professionals from different sectors; existence of informal support networks in the community; protocols/procedures and prior training for better implementation; and greater flexibility and accessibility of basic services that benefit women who experience IPV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated physical distancing which is expected to continue in some form for the foreseeable future. Physical distancing policies have increased reliance on digital forms of social connection and there are widespread concerns about social isolation and mental health in this context. This qualitative study sought to understand how loneliness was experienced during physical distancing in the initial national UK COVID-19 lockdown. Eight individuals who reported feeling lonely during the initial lockdown were interviewed in May 2020. Interviews were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. Four main themes were identified: (1) Loss of in-person interaction causing loneliness, (2) Constrained freedom, (3) Challenging emotions, and (4) Coping with loneliness. The loss of in-person interaction contributed to feelings of loneliness and digital interaction was viewed as an insufficient alternative. Social freedom could be constrained by distancing policies and by social contacts, contributing to strained personal relationships and feelings of frustration as part of loneliness. Fluctuations in mood and difficult emotions were experienced alongside loneliness, and distraction and seeking reconnection were commonly reported methods of coping, although they were less accessible. These findings indicate that physical distancing measures can impact loneliness due to the limitations they impose on in-person social contact and the perceived insufficiency of digital contact as a substitute. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: How effective have lockdowns been at reducing the covid-19 infection and mortality rates? Lockdowns influence contact among persons within or between populations including restricting travel, closing schools, prohibiting public gatherings, requiring workplace closures, all designed to slow the contagion of the virus. The purpose of the present study was to assess the impact of lockdown measures on the spread of covid-19 and test a theoretical model of the covid-19 pandemic employing structural equation modelling. Methods: Lockdown variables, population demographics, mortality rates, infection rates, and health were obtained for eight countries: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The dataset, owid-covid-data.csv, was downloaded on 06/01/2020 from: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data. Infection spread and mortality data were depicted as logistic growth and analyzed with stepwise multiple regression. The overall structure of the covid-19 data was explored through factor analyses leading to a theoretical model that was tested using latent variable path analysis. Results: Multiple regression indicated that the time from lockdown had a small but significant effect (β = 0.112, p< 0.01) on reducing the number of cases per million. The stringency index produced the most important effect for mortality and infection rates (β = 0.588,β = 0.702, β = 0.518, β = 0.681; p< 0.01). Exploratory and confirmatory analyses resulted in meaningful and cohesive latent variables: 1) Mortality, 2) Infection Spread, 3) Pop Health Risk, and 4) Health Vulnerability (Comparative Fit Index = 0.91; Standardized Root Mean Square Residual = 0.08). Discussion: The stringency index had a large impact on the growth of covid-19 infection and mortality rates as did percentage of population aged over 65, median age, per capita GDP, diabetes prevalence, cardiovascular death rates, and ICU hospital beds per 100K. The overall Latent Variable Path Analysis is theoretically meaningful and coherent with acceptable fit indices as a model of the covid-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]