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Project risk management which has been rarely considered, especially in software projects, is a crucial process to complete projects successfully. This paper aims to propose a novel project risk management framework both to evaluate the project risks and to predict the success or failure of software projects based on their risk. This new framework uses Machine Learning (ML) and Multi-Attribute Decision-Making under a cloud model to effectively manage uncertainty. Based on the proposed framework, in the first stage, the important risks of the software projects are identified by an organized approach. Then, the risks are evaluated based on their probability and impacts on time, cost, and quality. In the second stage, the obtained results of the previous stage are entered into a new COPRAS method under the cloud model to rank the risks. Then, the risks are classified into various groups according to their rank. It helps project managers to gain a profound awareness of their high-priority project risks. In this paper, data on risks for fifty software projects has been collected. All the steps of the second stage are implemented on these projects in order to assess their risks. As a result, a data set whose features are nine types of software project risks and the label of success or failure of the projects is created. To recognize the pattern between risks' values and the success or failure of the projects, various efficient ML algorithms such as Naive Bayes, Logistic regression, Decision Tree, Bagging, Random Forest, and AdaBoost are applied. This framework can predict the success or failure of software projects based on their risks with good accuracy. The results depict that the Naive Bayes algorithm has the best results compared to others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Twin support vector machine (TSVM) is an effective machine learning tool for classification problems. However, TSVM classifier works on empirical risk principle only and also while training, each sample contributes equally, even if it is a noise or an outlier. It does not incorporate the uncertainties associated with data into modeling and hence its generalization ability declines. To address these issues, intuitionistic fuzzy regularized least square twin support vector machine having intuitionistic fuzzy network has been proposed in this paper. The non-parallel classifiers are obtained by solving two systems of linear equations only rather than the solution of two quadratic programming problems as in TSVM, which leads to speed up the training process. Moreover, the method follows both structural risk and empirical risk minimization principles. In order to de-escalate the effect of pollutant patterns, their contribution of the patterns into learning the decision function has been made according to their importance in the classification. The significance of the training patterns is measured in terms of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers based on their geometrical locations and surroundings. The method is further extended to find non-parallel decision planes in the feature space using nonlinear kernel function, which also gives rise to the solution of two systems of linear equations. To show the efficacy of the proposed method, computer simulations on fourteen standard and six big UCI datasets using linear and Gaussian kernels are performed and their results have been compared with well-established methods in the literature. The experimental results are represented in terms of accuracy, computational time, F-measure, sensitivity and specificity rates. The outcomes demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods and is also feasible for big datasets. The comparison and statistical inferences using two non-parametric: Friedman and Nemenyi tests, conclude that the proposed approach is fast and yields better generalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the data and reaching accurate conclusions are of paramount importance in the present era of big data. Machine learning and probability theory methods have been widely used for this purpose in various fields. One critically important yet less explored aspect is capturing and analyzing uncertainties in the data and model. Proper quantification of uncertainty helps to provide valuable information to obtain accurate diagnosis. This paper reviewed related studies conducted in the last 30 years (from 1991 to 2020) in handling uncertainties in medical data using probability theory and machine learning techniques. Medical data is more prone to uncertainty due to the presence of noise in the data. So, it is very important to have clean medical data without any noise to get accurate diagnosis. The sources of noise in the medical data need to be known to address this issue. Based on the medical data obtained by the physician, diagnosis of disease, and treatment plan are prescribed. Hence, the uncertainty is growing in healthcare and there is limited knowledge to address these problems. Our findings indicate that there are few challenges to be addressed in handling the uncertainty in medical raw data and new models. In this work, we have summarized various methods employed to overcome this problem. Nowadays, various novel deep learning techniques have been proposed to deal with such uncertainties and improve the performance in decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies continuous-time models for newsvendor problems with dynamic replenishment, financial hedging and Stackelberg competition. These factors are considered simultaneously and the high-dimensional stochastic control models are established. High-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations are derived for the value functions. To circumvent the curse of dimensionality, a deep learning algorithm is proposed to solve the HJB equations. A projection is introduced in the algorithm to avoid the gradient explosion during the training phase. The deep learning algorithm is implemented for HJB equations derived from the newsvendor models with dimensions up to six. Numerical outcomes validate the algorithm's accuracy and demonstrate that the high-dimensional stochastic control models can successfully mitigate the risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rating prediction is a crucial element of business analytics as it enables decision-makers to assess service performance based on expressive customer feedback. Enhancing rating score predictions and demand forecasting through incorporating performance features from verbatim text fields, particularly in service quality measurement and customer satisfaction modelling is a key objective in various areas of analytics. A range of methods has been identified in the literature for improving the predictability of customer feedback, including simple bag-of-words-based approaches and advanced supervised machine learning models, which are designed to work with response variables such as Likert-based rating scores. This paper presents a dynamic model that incorporates values from topic membership, an outcome variable from Latent Dirichlet Allocation, with sentiment analysis in an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model used for rating prediction. The results show that, by incorporating features from simple unsupervised machine learning approaches (LDA-based), an 86% prediction accuracy (AUC based) can be achieved on objective rating values. At the same time, a combination of polarity and single-topic membership can yield an even higher accuracy when compared with sentiment text detection tasks both at the document and sentence levels. This study carries significant practical implications since sentiment analysis tasks often require dictionary coverage and domain-specific adjustments depending on the task at hand. To further investigate this result, we used Shapley Additive Values to determine the additive predictability of topic membership values in combination with sentiment-based methods using a dataset of customer reviews from food delivery services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Business operations have entered the digital era in which artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) and blockchain (BKC) have emerged as major disruptive forces. In AI and ML, deep learning is a critical area. In this paper, we aim to investigate how deep learning and BKC together can help improve business operations. We first examine the operations research (OR) literature related to the applications of deep learning for business operations. Then, we discuss the prior studies on using BKC for operations. After that, we explore deep learning's applications for BKC, BKC's applications for deep learning as well as how deep learning and BKC have been used together for business operations. Then, we construct a research framework and propose future research directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines whether the structure of the risk factor disclosure in an IPO prospectus helps explain the cross-section of first-day returns in a sample of Chinese initial public offerings. This paper analyzes the semantics and content of risk disclosure based on an unsupervised machine learning algorithm. From both long-term and short-term perspectives, this paper explores how the information effect and risk effect of risk disclosure play their respective roles. The results show that risk disclosure has a stronger risk effect at the semantic novelty level and a more substantial information effect at the risk content level. A novel aspect of the paper lies in the use of text analysis (semantic novelty and content richness) to characterize the structure of the risk factor disclosure. The study shows that initial IPO returns negatively correlate with semantic novelty and content richness. We show the interaction between risk effect and information effect on risk disclosure under the nature of the same stock plate. When enterprise information transparency is low, the impact of semantic novelty and content richness on the IPO market is respectively enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Operations in areas of importance to society are frequently modeled as mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems. While MILP problems suffer from combinatorial complexity, Lagrangian Relaxation has been a beacon of hope to resolve the associated difficulties through decomposition. Due to the non-smooth nature of Lagrangian dual functions, the coordination aspect of the method has posed serious challenges. This paper presents several significant historical milestones (beginning with Polyak's pioneering work in 1967) toward improving Lagrangian Relaxation coordination through improved optimization of non-smooth functionals. Finally, this paper presents the most recent developments in Lagrangian Relaxation for fast resolution of MILP problems. The paper also briefly discusses the opportunities that Lagrangian Relaxation can provide at this point in time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We carry on a long term analysis for Bitcoin price, which is currently among the most renowned crypto assets available on markets other than Forex. In the last decade Bitcoin has been under spotlights among traders all world wide, both because of its nature of pseudo–currency and for the high volatility its price has frequently experienced. Considering that Bitcoin price has earned over five orders of magnitude since 2009, the interest of investors has been increasingly motivated by the necessity of accurately predicting its value, not to mention that a comparative analysis with other assets as silver and gold has been under investigation, too. This paper reports two approaches for a long term Bitcoin price prediction. The first one follows more standard paradigms from regression and least squares frameworks. Our main contribution in this regard fosters conclusions which are able to justify the cyclic performance of Bitcoin price, in terms of its Stock–to–Flow. Our second approach is definitely novel in the literature, and indicates guidelines for long term forecasts of Bitcoin price based on Machine Learning (ML) methods, with a specific reference to Support Vector Machines (SVMs). Both these approaches are inherently data–driven, and the second one does not require any of the assumptions typically needed by solvers for classic regression problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monte-Carlo based valuation in life insurance involves the simulation of various components of the balance sheet: portfolios, guarantees, assets mix, market conditions and many other specific risk factors; which can be time-consuming. In view of the time needed to achieve this task, insurers are then facing a trade-off of balancing the number of simulations against the uncertainty surrounding the estimated quantity. In the current paper, we propose a variance-reduction methodology using a machine learning technique. It roots from the unsupervised learning literature in conjunction with the quantization of random processes. The goal is to reduce the number of simulated Brownian paths, using auxiliary scenarios that can be seen as path clusters, which efficiently and accurately approximate the initial ones with regards to an adequate measure of distance. Moreover, we introduce penalty to accommodate for various inputs of the initial conditions of risk factors. By doing so, we implicitly assign labels to the scenarios and thus advocate using a semi-supervised learning to enhance the performance of the scenarios reduction by imposing an additional impurity condition on the clusters based on these labels. This is made possible thanks to a decomposition property of the insurers cash-flows, which allows to disentangle the initial conditions of risk factors from the Brownian motions driving their dynamics. The training of the proposed learning algorithm is based on an adaptation of the well-known k-means algorithm. An intensive numerical study is carried out over a range of simulation setups to compare the performances of the proposed methodology. We show, numerically, that the proposed methodology outperforms some classical variance reduction approach. Also, using a real-life dataset, we show that our methodology outperforms some conventional variance reduction used by life insurance practitioners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Islamic banking is among rapidly-growing components in the world's financial system. Within its institutions, continuous criteria of efficiency facilitate the evaluation of the impact of the reforms and policies on the banks' performance. In this paper, we employ the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method for estimating the efficiency of Islamic banks in developed and developing countries. MARS is a well-known efficient method for the flexible modelling of high-dimensional data. Unlike previous work, using a nonparametric technique of such a robustness instead of parametric approaches contributes to the improvement of the various estimates, which provides investors with accurate and timely information they can immediately react upon for a better decision-making in turbulent times. On the one hand, the results of the experiments show that, in the emerging region, there is evidence of a strong linkage between Islamic banking efficiency and gross domestic product. On the other hand, in the developed region, the efficiency is rather based upon Sharia Supervisory Board and board committees. These outcomes confirm previous works showing that governance-related variables have a significant positive effect on Islamic banking efficiency. Furthermore, the overall MARS-based predictions reveal that Islamic banks operating in developed countries are relatively more efficient than their counterparts in emerging countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Payment cards offer a simple and convenient method for making purchases. Owing to the increase in the usage of payment cards, especially in online purchases, fraud cases are on the rise. The rise creates financial risk and uncertainty, as in the commercial sector, it incurs billions of losses each year. However, real transaction records that can facilitate the development of effective predictive models for fraud detection are difficult to obtain, mainly because of issues related to confidentially of customer information. In this paper, we apply a total of 13 statistical and machine learning models for payment card fraud detection using both publicly available and real transaction records. The results from both original features and aggregated features are analyzed and compared. A statistical hypothesis test is conducted to evaluate whether the aggregated features identified by a genetic algorithm can offer a better discriminative power, as compared with the original features, in fraud detection. The outcomes positively ascertain the effectiveness of using aggregated features for undertaking real-world payment card fraud detection problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial institutions, investors, mining companies and related firms need an effective accurate forecasting model to examine gold price fluctuations in order to make correct decisions. This paper proposes an innovative approach to accurately forecast gold price movements and to interpret predictions. First, it compares six machine learning models. These models include two very recent methods: the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and CatBoost. The empirical findings indicate the superiority of XGBoost over other advanced machine learning models. Second, it proposes Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) in order to help policy makers to interpret the predictions of complex machine learning models and to examine the importance of various features that affect gold prices. Our results illustrate that the utilization of XGBoost along with SHAP approach could provide a significant boost in increasing the gold price forecasting performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the only largest source of revenue and cost in a hospital, the operation room (OR) scheduling problem is a hot research topic. Nonetheless, an integrated model is the missing key to managing and improving the efficiency of ORs. This paper presents a fully integrated model regarding three concepts: meditating elective patients and emergency patients together, considering ORs and downstream units, and proposing hierarchical weekly, daily, and rescheduling models. Due to the inherent randomness in emergency patient arrival, a random forest machine learning model and geographical information systems are used to obtain the emergency patient surgery duration and arrival time, respectively. According to the machine learning model in weekly and daily scheduling, initially, fixed capacity is reserved for emergency patients. When an emergency patient arrives, the surgery starts if a reserved OR is available. Otherwise, the first available OR will be dedicated to the patient due to an emergency patient's higher priority than an elective patient. In this case, it is needed to reschedule the OT schedule for the remaining patient. Moreover, the three-phase model guarantees that an emergency patient assigns to an OR within a specific time limit. To solve the models, genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization are developed and compared. In addition, a real-world case study is undertaken at a hospital. The results of comparing the proposed approach to the hospital's current scheduling show that the three-phase model had a considerable positive effect on the ORs schedule. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces AlphaVision, an innovative decision support model designed for stock price prediction by seamlessly integrating real-time news updates and Return on Investment (ROI) values, utilizing various machine learning and deep learning approaches. The research investigates the application of these techniques to enhance the effectiveness of stock trading and investment decisions by accurately anticipating stock prices and providing valuable insights to investors and businesses. The study begins by analyzing the complexities and challenges of stock market analysis, considering factors like political, macroeconomic, and legal issues that contribute to market volatility. To address these challenges, we proposed the methodology called AlphaVision, which incorporates various machine learning algorithms, including Decision Trees, Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, Boosting, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Support Vector Machine, alongside deep learning models such as Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), Artificial Neural Networks, and Recurrent Neural Networks. The effectiveness of each model is evaluated based on their accuracy in predicting stock prices. Experimental results revealed that the MLP model achieved the highest accuracy of approximately 92%, outperforming other deep learning models. The Random Forest algorithm also demonstrated promising results with an accuracy of around 84.6%. These findings indicate the potential of machine learning and deep learning techniques in improving stock market analysis and prediction. The AlphaVision methodology presented in this research empowers investors and businesses with valuable tools to make informed investment decisions and navigate the complexities of the stock market. By accurately forecasting stock prices based on news updates and ROI values, the model contributes to better financial management and business sustainability. The integration of machine learning and deep learning approaches offers a promising solution for enhancing stock market analysis and prediction. Future research will focus on extracting more relevant financial features to further improve the model’s accuracy. By advancing decision support models for stock price prediction, researchers and practitioners can foster better investment strategies and foster economic growth. The proposed model holds potential to revolutionize stock trading and investment practices, enabling more informed and profitable decision-making in the financial sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most important composite indicators (CIs) to assess the development of countries or regions is the human development index (HDI) which is used by the United Nations (UN) to rank countries. HDI has three dimensions including healthy life, population education, and standard of living. A total of four different sub-indicators are defined for these three dimensions. The UN evaluates and ranks all countries using a simple arithmetic or geometric average of the sub-indicators and then categorizes the countries into four different groups based on their HDI scores. To measure the HDI, the benefit-of-the-doubt (BOD) model is used by researchers instead of the geometric mean. The conventional BOD model has some main drawbacks. The first is not accounting for data uncertainty, and the second is evaluating countries using different weights for the same sub-indicators. Furthermore, BOD model is not capable of predicting countries' future HDI scores. To overcome these deficiencies, this paper proposes a common weight fuzzy BOD (CWFBOD) model to measure the HDI scores. First, to take into account the uncertainty, data are considered fuzzy numbers, and a fuzzy BOD model (FBOD) is introduced. Then, to find a set of common weights for the three dimensions of HDI, the proposed FBOD model is transformed into a multiple-objective CWFBOD model. To convert and solve the multiple objective CWFBOD model to a single objective model, a fuzzy theory approach is used. In addition, of predicting the future HDI scores of countries, an artificial neural network (ANN) is designed and trained, where the original data on sub-indicators health, education, and income are considered as the features, and the HDI scores generated by CWBOD are assumed as the target of ANN. Finally, this study applies the fuzzy C-Means clustering technique to cluster all countries into four different clusters based on the HDI scores generated by FBOD and CWFBOD models. To illustrate the ability of the proposed methodology, the HDI scores of 190 countries during the period of 2015–2021 have been estimated and predicted. The results show that the proposed integrated methodology can be effectively used to estimate and predict the HDI scores as well as to cluster countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study champions of corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance among the U.S. publicly traded firms and their common characteristics by utilizing machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of firms’ CSR activity. We contribute to the CSR and leadership determinants literature by introducing the first comprehensive framework for analyzing the factors associated with corporate engagement with socially responsible behaviors by grouping all relevant predictors into four broad categories: corporate governance, managerial incentives, leadership, and firm characteristics. We find that strong corporate governance characteristics, as manifested in board member heterogeneity and managerial incentives, are the top predictors of CSR performance. Our results suggest policy implications for providing incentives and fostering characteristics conducive to firms “doing good.” [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]